madman theory

In 1517, Niccolò Machiavelli had argued that sometimes it is "a very wise thing to simulate madness" (Discourses on Livy, book 3, chapter 2). However, in Nixon's Vietnam War,{{cite book| title=Nixon's Vietnam War| author= Jeffrey Kimball| publisher=University Press of Kansas| series=Modern War Studies| date=November 20, 1998| ISBN=9780700611904 }} Kimball argues that Nixon arrived at the strategy independently, as a result of practical experience and observation of Dwight D. Eisenhower's handling of the Korean War.{{cite book|title=Painful Choices: A Theory of Foreign Policy Change|first=David A.|last=Welch|publisher=Princeton University Press|year=2005|isbn=9780691123400|page=154}}

In his 1962 book, Thinking About the Unthinkable, futurist Herman Kahn argued that to "look a little crazy" might be an effective way to induce an adversary to stand down.{{cite news|last1=Stevenson|first1=Jonathan|title=The Madness Behind Trump's 'Madman' Strategy|work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/26/opinion/the-madness-behind-trumps-madman-strategy.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-right-region®ion=opinion-c-col-right-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region|accessdate=26 October 2017|agency=New York Times|date=26 October 2017}}

File:Nixon and Kissinger - Flickr - The Central Intelligence Agency.jpg" in October 1969 was carried out at the direction of President Richard Nixon (left) and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger (right). ]]

Nixon's chief of staff, H. R. Haldeman, wrote that Nixon had confided to him:

I call it the Madman Theory, Bob. I want the North Vietnamese to believe I've reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war. We'll just slip the word to them that, "for God's sake, you know Nixon is obsessed about communism. We can't restrain him when he's angry—and he has his hand on the nuclear button" and Ho Chi Minh himself will be in Paris in two days begging for peace.{{cite book | first=H. R. | last=Haldeman | author-link=H. R. Haldeman | title=The Ends of Power | url=https://archive.org/details/endsofpower00hald | url-access=registration | publisher=Times Books | year=1978 | page=[https://archive.org/details/endsofpower00hald/page/122 122] | isbn=9780812907247 }}

In October 1969, the Nixon administration indicated to the Soviet Union that "the madman was loose" when the United States military was ordered to full global war readiness alert known as the "Joint Chiefs of Staff Readiness Test" (unbeknownst to the majority of the American population),{{Cite web |date=2011 |title=Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976, Volume XXXIV, National Security Policy, 1969–1972: 59. Editorial Note |url=https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v34/d59 |url-status=live |archive-url=http://web.archive.org/web/20241217085844/https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v34/d59 |archive-date=2024-12-17 |access-date= |website=United States Department of State |language=en}}{{Cite web |last=Aftergood |first=Steven |date=2011-10-25 |title=Purpose of 1969 Nuclear Alert Remains a Mystery |url=https://fas.org/publication/1969_nuclear_alert/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240912163147/https://fas.org/web/20240912163147/https://fas.org/publication/1969_nuclear_alert/ |archive-date=2024-09-12 |access-date= |website=Federation of American Scientists |language=en-US}} which culminated in the "Operation Giant Lance" when eighteen B-52 bombers armed with thermonuclear weapons flew patterns near the Soviet border for three consecutive days.{{cite news |last=Carroll |first=James |date=2005-06-14 |title=Nixon's madman strategy |url=http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2005/06/14/nixons_madman_strategy/ |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060116003053/http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2005/06/14/nixons_madman_strategy/ |archive-date=2006-01-16 |accessdate=2007-04-01 |publisher=The Boston Globe}} However, according to the U.S. State Department, another explanation is that the Joint Chiefs of Staff Readiness Test was ordered by Nixon to deter a possible Soviet nuclear strike against the People's Republic of China in 1969.

The administration employed the "madman strategy" to force the North Vietnamese government to negotiate an end to the Vietnam War.{{cite book|title=U.S. Diplomacy Since 1900|url=https://archive.org/details/usdiplomacysince00schu|url-access=limited|first=Robert D.|last=Schulzinger|publisher=Oxford University Press US|year=2002|isbn=9780195142211|page=[https://archive.org/details/usdiplomacysince00schu/page/n314 303]}} In July 1969 (according to a CIA report declassified in February 2018), Nixon may have suggested to South Vietnamese president Nguyễn Văn Thiệu that the two paths he was considering were either a nuclear weapons option or setting up a coalition government.{{cite web|title=Nixon, Thieu, and the Bomb: CIA Report Sheds Light on Richard Nixon's Madman Diplomacy|editor=Jeffrey Kimball and William Burr|publisher=National Security Archive|url=https://unredacted.com/2018/02/20/thieu-and-the-bomb-cia-report-sheds-light-on-richard-nixons-madman-diplomacy/|date=February 20, 2018}} According to historian Michael S. Sherry, the 1970 incursion into Cambodia was part of the strategy to incentivize negotiations.{{cite book|first=Michael S.|last=Sherry|title=In the Shadow of War: The United States Since the 1930s|publisher=Yale University Press|year=1995|page=312|isbn=0-300-07263-5}}

Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev sought to develop an image of a madman, which was accepted to some degree by U.S. policymakers. For example, Secretary of State John Foster Dulles said Khrushchev "could be expected to commit irrational acts" and was "essentially emotional."

{{Seealso|Foreign policy of the first Donald Trump administration|Foreign policy of the second Donald Trump administration}}

File:TrumpPortrait.jpg to be a modern example of the madman strategy.]]

Some have characterized current U.S. president Donald Trump's behavior towards allies and hostile states as an example of madman theory.{{cite news|title=Rex Tillerson's agonies|url=https://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21730055-some-friction-between-president-and-secretary-state-normal-not-rex|newspaper=The Economist|date=5 October 2017}}{{cite news|last1=Naftali|first1=Tim|date=4 October 2017|title=The Problem With Trump's Madman Theory|work=The Atlantic|url=https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/madman-theory-trump-north-korea/542055/|accessdate=8 October 2017}} For instance, during the KORUS FTA renegotiations Trump told U.S. trade negotiators to warn South Korean diplomats that "if they don't give the concessions now, this crazy guy will pull out of the deal", which Jonathan Swan of Axios characterized as a "madman" approach to international relations.{{Cite web|last=Swan|first=Jonathan|title=Scoop: Trump urges staff to portray him as "crazy guy"|url=https://www.axios.com/scoop-trump-urges-staff-to-portray-him-as-crazy-guy-1513305888-c1cbdb89-6370-4e13-98ed-28c414e62a35.html|access-date=2022-02-14|website=Axios|date=October 2017 |language=en}} Trump's application of madman theory was linked to the release of American pastor Andrew Brunson from Turkish detention in 2018, after Trump threatened Turkey's economy in retaliation.

Jonathan Stevenson argued in The New York Times that Trump's strategy could have been less effective than Nixon's because Nixon tried to give the impression that "he'd been pushed too far, implying that he would return to his senses if the Soviets and North Vietnamese gave in", whereas the North Korean government was unlikely to believe that "Trump would do the same" because his threats were "standard operating procedure", not a temporary emotional reaction. International relations scholar Roseanne W. McManus argued that Trump stating that he was relying on madman theory made the approach counterproductive, as he was undermining the belief that his "madness" was genuine.{{Cite journal |last=McManus |first=Roseanne W. |date=2019 |title=Revisiting the Madman Theory: Evaluating the Impact of Different Forms of Perceived Madness in Coercive Bargaining |url=https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2019.1662482 |journal=Security Studies |volume=28 |issue=5 |pages=976–1009 |doi=10.1080/09636412.2019.1662482 |issn=0963-6412 |s2cid=203470748}}

During the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Trump touted his version of the madman theory as a strategy he would utilize against China to deter an invasion or blockade of Taiwan, and against Russia to push for a peace deal to end its invasion of Ukraine. Trump has also stated that he could utilize the threats of high tariffs to incentivize trade deals without actually engaging in trade wars and warnings about U.S. reluctance to defend NATO member states as a means of spurring NATO allies to invest in their own defense.{{Cite web |last=Lawler |first=Dave |date=October 26, 2024 |title=Trump's "I'm f***ing crazy" foreign policy" |url=https://www.axios.com/2024/10/26/trump-foreign-policy-china-taiwan-russia-ukraine |access-date=November 6, 2024 |website=Axios |language=en}} Sky News wrote that "Trump's unpredictability should not be understated" after the announcement of the January 2025 three-phase Israel–Hamas war ceasefire proposal{{Cite news |last=Stone |first=Mark |date=2025-01-15 |title=Gaza ceasefire deal: Biden won't give him the credit - but this agreement wouldn't have happened now without Trump |url=https://news.sky.com/story/gaza-ceasefire-deal-biden-wont-give-him-the-credit-but-this-agreement-wouldnt-have-happened-without-trump-13289693 |access-date=2025-01-16 |publisher=Sky News |language=en}}

{{Seealso|Nuclear risk during the Russian invasion of Ukraine}}

File:Владимир Путин (08-03-2024) (cropped) (higher res).jpg, several journalists speculated that Russian president Vladimir Putin was using the madman strategy.]]

Another example of madman theory has also been attributed to Russian president Vladimir Putin, especially in the lead up and during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In 2015, Martin Hellman stated that "nuclear weapons are the card that Putin has up his sleeve, and he's using it to get the world to realize that Russia is a superpower, not just a regional power." This use of the madman theory, Hellman argued, was something which the West had not "properly caught on to."{{cite news|last1=Braw|first1=Elisabeth|date=4 January 2015|title=Putin is 'Playing the Madman' to Trick the West|work=Newsweek|url=https://www.newsweek.com/2015/04/10/impeccable-logic-behind-putins-madman-strategy-318529.html|accessdate=28 February 2022}}

In 2022, days before the invasion, Gideon Rachman argued in the Financial Times that Putin's "penchant for publishing long, nationalist essays" regarding Ukrainian and Russian history, his plans of nuclear weapons exercises as well as his image of "growing increasingly out of touch and paranoid" and isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic, could have been the use of madman strategy. Rachman stated that Putin "is ruthless and amoral. But he is also shrewd and calculating. He takes risks, but he is not crazy", comparing Putin's recent actions to his more "rational" actions of the previous 20 years. However, Rachman also noted that "the line between acting like a madman and being a madman is disconcertingly thin."{{cite news|last1=Rachman|first1=Gideon|date=7 February 2022|title=Putin, Ukraine and the madman theory of diplomacy|work=Financial Times|url=https://www.ft.com/content/3d8b94e9-0db7-4aa5-ac6a-9fef2ce43ab6|accessdate=28 February 2022}}

In the first days of the invasion, Paul Taylor of Politico also speculated that Putin was using the madman strategy, after his decision to place Russian deterrence nuclear forces on "special alert". Taylor stated that Putin was exhibiting "pathological behavior" by "swinging wildly from seeming openness to negotiations to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in four fronts, while threatening the world with mass destruction." Taylor also referred to Putin's television address prior to the invasion, stating that "his branding Ukraine's elected leaders as drug-addicted neo-Nazis raised doubts even among supportive Russians about his mental state and health."{{cite news|last1=Taylor|first1=Paul|date=27 February 2022|title=Inside Vladimir Putin's head|work=Politico|url=https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-nato-nuclear-inside-putins-head/|accessdate=28 February 2022}}

Political scientist Scott Sagan and historian Jeremi Suri have criticized the theory as "ineffective and dangerous", citing the belief that Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev did not understand what Nixon was trying to communicate, and considering the chance of an accident from the increased movements of U.S. forces. Trump's alleged use of the theory with North Korea has been similarly criticized, suggesting the chance of an accident arising from North Korea's string of missile testing was also increased.{{cite news|last1=Coll|first1=Steve|title=The Madman Theory of North Korea|url=https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/10/02/the-madman-theory-of-north-korea|accessdate=8 October 2017|magazine=The New Yorker|date=24 September 2017}} Stephen Walt has argued that not many successful cases of madman theory can be found in the historical record.{{Cite web|last=Walt|first=Stephen M.|title=Things Don't End Well for Madmen|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/16/things-dont-end-well-for-madmen-trump-north-korea/|website=Foreign Policy|date=August 16, 2017|access-date=August 11, 2023|language=en-US}} Roseanne McManus has argued that some forms of "madness" can be an asset in bargaining, whereas other forms are counterproductive. Joshua A. Schwartz points that besides any quantifiable advantage in foreign relations, the perceived madness also "entails significant domestic costs that potentially erode its efficacy".{{Cite journal |last=Schwartz |first=Joshua A. |date=2023-03-15 |title=Madman or Mad Genius? The International Benefits and Domestic Costs of the Madman Strategy |journal=Security Studies |language=en |volume=32 |issue=2 |pages=271–305 |doi=10.1080/09636412.2023.2197619 |issn=0963-6412|doi-access=free }}

According to political scientists Samuel Seitz and Caitlin Talmadge, "The historical record, both before Trump’s presidency and during it, demonstrates that madman tactics typically fail to strengthen deterrence or generate bargaining leverage." They cite three main reasons: target states fail to receive the message that the "madman" thinks he is sending, target states do not see the "madman" behavior as credible, and target states do not give into the "madman" even when they believe the madman rhetoric, because the madman is perceived as being unable to make credible assurances of future behavior.

{{Portal|United States|Politics}}

• Brinkmanship
• Deterrence theory
• Good cop, bad cop
• Operation Giant Lance

{{Reflist|22em}}

• Jacobson, Zachary Jonathan (2023), [https://www.amazon.com/Nixons-Madness-Emotional-History/dp/1421445530 On Nixon's Madness: An Emotional History]. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. ISBN 1421445530.
• {{citation|last=Kimball|first=Jeffrey|title=Did Thomas C. Schelling Invent the Madman Theory?|publisher=History News Network|date=24 October 2005|url=http://hnn.us/articles/17183.html}}
• {{citation|last=Sagan|first=Scott D. |author2=Jeremi Suri|title=The Madman Nuclear Alert: Secrecy, Signaling, and Safety in October 1969|journal=International Security|volume= 27|number= 4|date= Spring 2003|pages=150–183|jstor=4137607|doi=10.1162/016228803321951126|s2cid=57564244 }}
• {{citation|last=Suri|first= Jeremi|title=The Nukes of October: Richard Nixon's Secret Plan to Bring Peace to Vietnam|magazine=Wired|volume= 16|number= 3|date= March 2008|url= https://www.wired.com/politics/security/magazine/16-03/ff_nuclearwar}}
• {{cite book |last=Sciutto |first=Jim |date=August 11, 2020 |title=The Madman Theory |url=https://www.harpercollins.com/products/the-madman-theory-jim-sciutto?variant=32117494939682 |publisher=Harper |isbn=9780063005686 }}

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