maximum neighbor hypothesis

The hypothesis is based on a historical analysis of Chile's relations with Argentina, Bolivia, and Peru. Since these countries' independence, territorial disputes and diplomatic conflicts have shaped the perception of potential alliances in case of conflict.{{cite book |author=Cristián Garay Vera and Claudio Tapia Figueroa |title=Las relaciones internacionales regionales de Chile hacia 1904 |publisher=Ariadna Ediciones |year=2021 |url=https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.12657/50251/8/978-956-6095-25-5.pdf#page=37}}

The foundations of HV3 include:

1. Historical disputes: Chile has had territorial conflicts with all three neighbors, such as the War of the Pacific (1879–1884) with Peru and Bolivia, and the Beagle Channel dispute (1904–1984) with Argentina.
2. Expansionist and revanchist tendencies: the theory suggests Argentina seeks Pacific access, Peru maintains aspirations over Arica and Tarapacá, while Bolivia continues to demand sovereign access to the sea.{{cite book |author=Augusto Varas |title=Percepciones de amenaza y políticas de defensa en América Latina |publisher=FLACSO |year=1993 |url=https://biblio.flacsoandes.edu.ec/libros/digital/43504.pdf}}
3. Patterns of past alliances: Argentina, Bolivia, and Peru have often shown diplomatic and historiographical solidarity in their disputes against Chile.{{cite journal |author=Karen Manzano Iturra |title=Chile, Bolivia y Argentina. El factor de la Puna de Atacama en las negociaciones de 1895 |journal=Revista Norte Histórico |year=2018 |url=https://revistanortehistorico.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/karen-manzano-chile-bolivia-y-argentina1.pdf}}
4. Perception in defense: Chilean Armed Forces' strategic assessments consider a likely coordinated pressure from the other two neighbors in the event of conflict.{{cite book |author=Alfonso Néspolo |title=Las instituciones de la defensa en las relaciones internacionales de Chile. Un análisis externo y crítico |publisher=FLACSO |year=2010 |url=https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/chile/08347-20110907.pdf}}

Throughout history, various events have suggested the possibility of a regional coalition against Chile:

• 1873: Bolivia and Peru signed a secret agreement known as the Treaty of Defensive Alliance (1873), aimed at mutual protection in case of external aggression. Argentina was invited to join; although the Argentine Chamber of Deputies approved the proposal, the Senate rejected it.{{cite book |last=Basadre Grohmann |first=Jorge |title=Historia de la República del Perú [1822–1933], Vol. 8 |chapter=La adhesión argentina a la alianza |page=214 |year=2005 |publisher=Diario El Comercio |isbn=9972-40-257-6}}

• 1878: Argentina sought to align with Peru and Bolivia to form a military alliance against Chile due to the looming War of the Pacific. However, Chile's naval victories at the Battle of Iquique and Battle of Angamos discouraged Argentina from ratifying the alliance.

• 1881: Argentina threatened to open a southern war front against Chile if the Treaty of 1881 was not signed. General Julio Argentino Roca’s original plan aimed to sever Chile at the latitude of Puerto Montt and seize its southern territories.

• 1890: During conferences in Washington, Argentina proposed nullifying Chile’s gains from the War of the Pacific, with support from Bolivia and Peru. Chile refused to engage, and the proposal was shelved.

• 1898: Bolivia ceded the Puna de Atacama to Argentina, nearly provoking armed conflict. There were fears that Bolivia and Peru would join forces to reclaim Tarapacá and Antofagasta.{{cite book |author=Óscar Espinoza Moraga |title=La Postguerra del Pacífico y la Puna de Atacama (1884–1899) |year=1958 |publisher=Andrés Bello}}

• 1902: Chile and Argentina were on the brink of war over the Patagonian watershed boundary dispute. It is speculated that Peru and Bolivia anticipated the conflict and were prepared to intervene.Scheina, Naval History, 49–52, 298–99, 349; "[https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=o4o-AAAAIBAJ&sjid=0VkMAAAAIBAJ&pg=5800,1281217 Chile-Argentina Treaty]," Boston Evening Transcript, 10 January 1903.

• 1920: Peru supported a coup in Bolivia that brought to power a government with an anti-Chilean stance. Though there is no direct evidence of Argentine involvement, there were efforts toward trilateral alignment against Chile.

• 1944: Peronist military circles in Argentina planned an invasion of Chile, possibly with support from Peru and Bolivia. The United States intervened to prevent the operation.

• 1952: Argentina occupied territory in Alto Palena, triggering a border crisis.{{cite book |author1=Mario Artaza Rouxel |author2=Paz Milet García |title=Nuestros Vecinos |year=2007 |isbn=9789562845335 |pages=105–107 |url=https://libros.uchile.cl/files/presses/1/monographs/276/submission/proof/106/ |chapter=Conflicto de Palena |doi=10.34720/kwrb-6a71}} There is evidence of coordination with Peru and Bolivia during the dispute.

• 1962: Bolivia attempted to invoke the TIAR against Chile over the use of the Lauca River, with Peru and Argentina reportedly considering intervention.{{cite book |title=Nuestros vecinos |url=https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/962818502 |year=2014 |access-date=1 April 2022 |isbn=9789562845335 |oclc=962818502 |first=Mario |last=Artaza |first2=Paz |last2=Milet}}

• 1975–1978: Chile and Argentina were hours away from war during the 1977–1978 crisis related to the Beagle conflict. Argentina had developed an invasion plan called "Operation Soberanía." Peru and Bolivia reinforced their military capabilities and were involved in coordinated attack plans. The Peruvian government of Juan Velasco Alvarado, bolstered by massive Soviet and European arms acquisitions, devised a plan known as “Negro” to invade Chilean territory, with D-Day set for 6 August. The plan aimed to capture Arica, Iquique, and eventually Antofagasta, which would be transferred to Bolivia as part of a geopolitical strategy. Meanwhile, Chile, aware of its military disadvantage, took defensive measures including laying mines on the border and reinforcing its presence in Arica.{{cite web |title=La guerra prevista para el 6 de agosto de 1975 |url=https://www.lostiempos.com/oh/actualidad/20210731/guerra-prevista-6-agosto-1975 |website=Los Tiempos |date=31 July 2021 |access-date=10 January 2025}} Additionally, Chile sought to prevent Bolivia from allying with Argentina and Peru by offering it sovereign access to the Pacific through the Charaña Accords.

HV3 has influenced Chile's foreign and defense policies, including:

• Deterrence policy: Chile has maintained strong military capabilities as a deterrent.
• Balancing diplomacy: maintaining even-handed bilateral relations with each neighbor.
• Extra-regional alliances: strengthening ties with non-regional powers and multilateral bodies.
• Use of anti-personnel and anti-tank landmines during the 1970s–1980s.

HV3 has been criticized as a pessimistic view of international relations in South America. Critics argue regional integration processes have diminished the likelihood of war.

However, supporters claim that history shows a repeated pattern of Argentina, Bolivia, and Peru acting together on territorial matters against Chile, justifying the hypothesis' ongoing relevance.

HV3 remains a reference point in Chilean foreign policy and defense planning. Though sometimes criticized as excessively realist, it still influences Chile's national security strategy.

{{portal|Latin America|Chile|Argentina|Peru|Bolivia}}

• Borders of Chile
• Casus belli
• Continental shelf of Chile

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Category:Geopolitics

Category:Political terminology

Category:History of Chile

Category:Borders of Chile

Category:Political realism

Category:Geopolitical terminology