negative pricing#Electricity

Natural gas prices in the Permian Basin, West Texas, went below zero more than once in 2019. Natural gas is produced there as a byproduct of oil production, but production has increased faster than the construction of pipelines to transport natural gas. Oil production in the Permian Basin is profitable, so the natural gas continues to be produced, but disposing of it is costly: producers must burn the gas (which is subject to regulations) or pay for space on existing pipelines. As a result, the price of natural gas becomes negative; in effect, producers of natural gas pay others to take it away.

{{See also|Financial market impact of the COVID-19 pandemic}}

File:Selected North American crude oil prices March 1 through May 13, 2020 (49941454556).png prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange in March, April, and May 2020]]

In March and April 2020, demand for crude oil dropped dramatically as a result of travel restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, an oil price war developed between Russia and Saudi Arabia, and both countries increased production. The exceptionally large gap between supply and demand for oil began to strain available oil storage capacity.{{cite news |author=Matt Egan |title=Oil crashes below $19, falling to an 18-year low |url=https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/17/business/oil-prices-crash-opec-trump/index.html |access-date=2 April 2021 |work=CNN}} In some cases, oil storage and transportation costs became higher than the value of the oil, leading to negative oil prices in certain locations, and, on one day (20 April 2020), negative prices for oil futures (contracts for oil to be delivered at a future date).{{cite news |title=CME Group, as oil contract plunges negative, says markets working fine |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idAFL1N2C82MD |access-date=3 April 2021 |work=Reuters |language=en}} West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures went as low as −$37.63 per barrel (though consumer prices did not go negative). In effect, with demand low and storage at a premium, oil producers were paying to get rid of their oil.{{cite news |title=US oil prices turn negative as demand dries up |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52350082 |access-date=2 April 2021 |work=BBC News |date=20 April 2020}}

MarketWatch described the situation as "the opposite of so-called short squeeze." In a short squeeze, investors who are short an asset must cover their positions as the price goes up, leading to a vicious cycle as prices continue to rise. With oil prices in 2020, traders with long oil positions needed to cover their positions for fear of finding themselves with oil and nowhere to store it. According to MarketWatch{{'s}} analysis, the rapid drop in oil futures prices may have been an artifact of the structure of the futures market rather than an accurate reflection of the supply and demand for oil.{{cite news |last1=Watts |first1=William |title=Why oil prices just crashed into negative territory — 4 things investors need to know |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-oil-market-just-crashed-below-0-a-barrel-4-things-investors-need-to-know-2020-04-20 |access-date=2 April 2021 |work=MarketWatch}} Negative oil prices "meant the discovery of a new market condition ... an 'oil Everest, but in reverse.' Oil prices not only hit rock bottom, but they also broke the rock."{{Cite web |last=Saefong |first=Myra P. |title=Oil prices went negative a year ago: Here's what traders have learned since |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-went-negative-a-year-ago-heres-what-traders-have-learned-since-11618863839 |access-date=2022-10-07 |website=MarketWatch |date=19 April 2021 |language=EN-US}} However, prices recovered to pre–COVID-19 levels, and the glut of oil has disappeared.

A trial for market manipulation is ongoing against Vega Capital London Ltd a group of nine independent traders at Essex who would buy oil futures with the expectation to win if the price went down at the end of the contract but are accused of doing so by deliberately buying big volumes and coordinating their activities to artificially push down the price, is estimated that on 20 April they traded more than BP, Glencore, and JPMorgan Chase at around 29.2% of the total volume in WTI crude oil futures and that their trades were correlated between 96.2% and 99.7%,{{Cite news |last=Rushe |first=Dominic |date=2022-04-13 |title='Essex Boys' case of traders accused of manipulating markets heads for trial |url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/13/essex-boys-oil-price-manipulation-trial |access-date=2024-05-26 |work=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}}{{Cite web |last1=Vaughan |first1=Liam Vaughan |last2=Chellel |first2=Kit |last3=Bain |first3=Benjamin |date=10 December 2020 |title=The Essex Boys: How Nine Traders Hit a Gusher With Negative Oil |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-12-10/stock-market-when-oil-when-negative-these-essex-traders-pounced |access-date=2024-05-26 |website=www.bloomberg.com}}{{Cite AV media |url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7_WXUMFM_w |title=The Day Oil Went Negative, These Unlikely Traders Made $660M |date=2021-05-11 |last=Bloomberg Originals |access-date=2024-05-26 |via=YouTube}} as prices went negative at the end of settlement in fact they would win money too so is estimated that in total they made around $660 million on just a few hours. The trial is anticipated to last at least until 2025.{{Cite web |last=Goodman |first=Leah McGrath |date=2023-04-21 |title=Three Years Ago, Oil Prices Fell Below Zero. One Man Absolutely Refuses to Give Up on Finding Out Why |url=https://www.thedailyupside.com/industries/energy/three-years-ago-oil-prices-fell-below-zero-one-man-absolutely-refuses-to-give-up-on-finding-out-why/ |access-date=2024-05-26 |website=The Daily Upside |language=en-US}}

{{see also|Demand response}}

When demand for electricity is low but production is high, electricity prices can go negative. This can happen if demand is unexpectedly low (for instance, because of warm weather) and if production is unexpectedly high (for instance, because of unusually windy weather). In 2009 alone, the Canadian province of Ontario experienced 280 hours of negative electricity prices,{{cite news |last1=Butler |first1=Don |title=Surplus power costs Ontarians $35M |url=https://www.newspapers.com/image/468261952/ |access-date=2 April 2021 |work=The Ottawa Citizen |date=25 July 2011}} and in 2017, German power prices went negative more than 100 times.{{cite news |last1=Reed |first1=Stanley |title=Power Prices Go Negative in Germany, a Positive for Energy Users |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/25/business/energy-environment/germany-electricity-negative-prices.html |access-date=2 April 2021 |work=The New York Times |date=25 December 2017}}

Negative electricity prices happen as a result of uneven and unpredictable patterns of supply and demand: demand is lower at certain times of day and on holidays and weekends, while wind and solar production are highly dependent on weather. When excess supply causes electricity prices to fall, some producers, including wind and solar, may cut production. But for some coal and nuclear power plants, stopping and starting production is costly (the xenon pit may also preclude quickly restarting a reactor after a certain period of shutdown{{Cite web | url=https://www.nuclear-power.com/nuclear-power/reactor-physics/reactor-operation/xenon-135/iodine-pit/ | title=Iodine Pit - Xenon Peak - Xenon Pit }}{{Cite web | url=http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2014/ph241/alnoaimi2/ | title=Xenon-135 Reactor Poisoning }}), so they are more likely to continue production even if prices become negative and they must pay to offload the energy they are producing.{{cite web |title=Negative prices: how they occur, what they mean |url=https://www.stanwell.com/our-news/energy-explainer/negative-prices/ |website=Stanwell |access-date=2 April 2021}} Moreover, for wind and solar, renewable energy subsidies in some markets can more than offset the cost of selling power at negative prices, leading them to continue production even when the price drops below zero.{{cite journal |last1=Deng |first1=Lin |last2=Hobbs |first2=Benjamin F. |last3=Renson |first3=Piet |title=Negative Bidding by Wind: A Unit Commitment Analysis of Cost and Emission Impacts |journal=IAEE Energy Forum |volume=2014 |issue=3 |pages=45–47 |url=http://www.iaee.org/documents/2014EnergyForum3qtr.pdf |access-date=4 April 2021}} Possible methods for avoiding/reducing negative electricity prices involve improving technology and expanding capacity to store excess power for later use (e.g., pumped hydro storage, thermal energy storage), distributing electricity more widely along a super grid, demand response, and better predicting surges in supply.

This phenomenon occurs in wholesale electricity prices, and it is possible for businesses to earn money or receive credits for using electricity at times of negative pricing.{{cite news |last1=Lewis |first1=Katie |title=Labour Day power price dropped to all-time low |url=https://www.newspapers.com/image/466884576/ |access-date=3 April 2021 |work=The Ottawa Citizen |date=26 September 2006}} However, while residential electricity consumers may also save money on electricity when wholesale prices go negative, they generally do not experience negative prices because their electricity bills also include various taxes and fees.

In certain markets, financial incentives for the production of renewable energy can more than offset the cost of selling power at a negative price. In the United States, these incentives are found in the federal renewable electricity production tax credit (PTC) program and through the trading of renewable energy credits (RECs). Eligible generators that opt into the PTC program receive a tax credit for each kilowatt-hour (kWh) of electricity produced, over a period of 10 years for most types of generation. In 2020, this payment ranged from $0.013/kWh to $0.025/kWh, varying based on the type of generation. The avoided tax from the receipt of a production tax credit can more than offset the cost of dispatching electricity at a negative price.{{cite web |last1=Lips |first1=Brian |last2=Inskeep |first2=Ben |title=Renewable Electricity Production Tax Credit (PTC) |url=https://programs.dsireusa.org/system/program/detail/734 |website=DSIRE |publisher=N.C. Clean Energy Technology Center |access-date=3 April 2021}}{{cite web |title=Negative Electricity Prices and the Production Tax Credit |url=http://northbridgegroup.com/publications/Negative_Electricity_Prices_and_the_Production_Tax_Credit.pdf |publisher=The NorthBridge Group |access-date=4 April 2021 |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20170404153136/http://northbridgegroup.com/publications/Negative_Electricity_Prices_and_the_Production_Tax_Credit.pdf |archivedate=2017-04-04}} Separate from tax credits are RECs (in the United States) or green certificates (in Europe), tradeable instruments that represent the environmental benefits of renewable generation.{{cite web |title=Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) |url=https://www.epa.gov/greenpower/renewable-energy-certificates-recs |website=EPA.gov |publisher=United States Environmental Protection Agency |access-date=3 April 2021}}{{cite web |last1=Shields |first1=Laura |title=State Renewable Portfolio Standards and Goals |url=https://www.ncsl.org/research/energy/renewable-portfolio-standards.aspx |website=NCSL |publisher=National Conference of State Legislatures |access-date=3 April 2021}}{{cite web |title=What is a green certificate? |url=https://www.kyos.com/faq/green-certificate/ |website=KYOS |access-date=4 April 2021}} These instruments can be sold and traded, allowing generators to offset negative power prices.{{cite web |title=Adapting Market Design to High Shares of Variable Renewable Energy |url=https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2017/May/IRENA_Adapting_Market_Design_VRE_2017.pdf |publisher=IRENA |access-date=4 April 2021 |page=87}}

In Texas, a large buildout of wind energy has driven negative pricing in ERCOT, the state's electrical grid operator.{{cite news |last1=Gross |first1=Daniel |title=A Bizarre Thing Happened in Texas: Wind Power Made the Price of Electricity Go Negative |url=https://slate.com/business/2015/09/texas-electricity-goes-negative-wind-power-was-so-plentiful-one-night-that-producers-paid-the-state-to-take-it.html |access-date=4 April 2021 |work=Slate Magazine |date=18 September 2015 |language=en}} From January 2018 through early November 2020, pricing in ERCOT was negative in 19% of hours.{{cite web |last1=Boettiger |first1=Corey |title=ERCOT Wind Energy Leading To Lower, More Volatile Pricing? |url=https://btuanalytics.com/power-and-renewables/ercot-wind-energy-leading-to-lower-more-volatile-pricing/ |website=BTU Analytics |access-date=3 April 2021}} The high frequency of negative electricity pricing in Texas is driven by the high penetration of wind relative to other states – nearly three times that of the next state as of mid-2019{{cite web |last1=Unwin |first1=Jack |title=Top ten US states by wind energy capacity |url=https://www.power-technology.com/features/us-wind-energy-by-state/ |website=Power Technology |date=15 April 2019 |publisher=GlobalData |access-date=3 April 2021}} – and ERCOT's isolation as a separate transmission system with limited interconnection into other parts of the United States, limiting ERCOT's ability to transmit excess power to other parts of the country.{{cite news |last1=Price |first1=Asher |title='An electrical island': Texas has dodged federal regulation for years by having its own power grid |url=https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/02/17/texas-power-grid-why-state-has-its-own-operated-ercot/6782380002/ |access-date=3 April 2021 |work=Austin American-Statements |agency=USA Today |publisher=USA Today}}

{{main article|Onion Futures Act}}

In the United States in 1956, commodities traders Sam Siegel and Vincent Kosuga bought up large quantities of onions and then flooded the market as part of a scheme to make money on a short position in onion futures.{{Citation

| last1 = Greising

| first1 = David

| first2 = Laurie

| last2 = Morse

| title = Brokers, Bagmen, and Moles: Fraud and Corruption in the Chicago Futures Markets

| location = Hoboken

| publisher = Wiley

| year = 1991

| pages = [https://archive.org/details/brokersbagmenmol00grei/page/81 81]

| isbn = 978-0-471-53057-2

| url-access = registration

| url = https://archive.org/details/brokersbagmenmol00grei/page/337

}} This sent the price of a 50-pound bag of onions down to only 10 cents, less than the value of the empty bag.{{cite news |last1=Breitinger |first1=Walt and Alex |title=More commodities below zero? It's happened before |url=https://www.newspapers.com/image/661338338/ |access-date=3 April 2021 |work=The Des Moines Register |date=3 May 2020}} Effectively, the price of the onions was negative.{{cite news |title=Negative Commodity Prices – Causes and Effects |url=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/negative-commodity-prices-causes-effects-112241939.html |access-date=4 April 2021 |work=Yahoo! News}}

It is possible for installment receipts to trade at negative prices. An installment receipt is a financial instrument for which the buyer makes an initial payment and is obligated to make a second payment later on, in exchange for ownership of a share of stock.{{cite web |title=Introduction to Instalments |url=https://www.asx.com.au/documents/resources/warrants_course_01.pdf |access-date=3 April 2021 |page=9}}{{cite web |title=Installment Receipts |url=https://www.sedi.ca/sedi/new_help/english/agent/Glossary/Installment_receipts.htm |website=www.sedi.ca |access-date=3 April 2021}}

In 1998, investors in Canada bought installment receipts for shares of Boliden Ltd. Investors made an initial payment of CA$8 per share for the receipts, which obligated them to make a second $8 payment later on. But when the share price dropped to $7.80, the value of a receipt became negative: a receipt obligated its holder to make an $8 payment for a share worth less than $8. As a result, the receipts traded at negative values ranging from −$0.15 to −$0.40, and their trading was suspended on the Toronto Stock Exchange.{{cite news |last1=Bagnell |first1=Paul |title=Boliden investors out of luck |url=https://www.newspapers.com/image/512533988/ |access-date=3 April 2021 |work=National Post |date=29 May 1998 |language=en}}

Typically, negative prices are a signal that supply is too high relative to demand. They can lead suppliers to cut production, bringing supply more in line with demand.{{cite web |title=Power Prices Below Zero Point to the 'End of the Energy Mainframe' |url=https://theenergymix.com/2018/08/28/power-prices-below-zero-point-to-the-end-of-the-energy-mainframe/ |website=The Energy Mix |access-date=2 April 2021 |language=en-CA |date=29 August 2018}}{{cite web |title=What do negative crude oil prices even mean? |url=https://www.jpmorgan.com/wealth-management/wealth-partners/insights/what-do-negative-crude-oil-prices-even-mean |website=JP Morgan |access-date=2 April 2021 |language=en}}

Electronic trading systems may not be set up to handle negative prices. If negative prices are a possibility, market participants must verify that their systems can process them correctly. This includes pricing models, market data feeds, risk management, monitoring for unauthorized trading, reporting, and accounting.{{cite web |last1=Evans |first1=Rich |title=Negative-Priced Assets - Some Practical Considerations |url=https://www.globalinvestorgroup.com/articles/3694585/negative-priced-assets-some-practical-considerations |website=Global Investor Group |access-date=3 April 2021}}

Derivatives traders traditionally rely on models, like the Black–Scholes model, that assume positive prices. In a situation where products have negative prices, these models can break down.{{cite web |last1=Duncan |first1=Felicity |title=The Great Switch – Negative Prices Are Forcing Traders To Change Their Derivatives Pricing Models |url=https://www.intuition.com/the-great-switch-negative-prices-are-forcing-traders-to-change-their-derivatives-pricing-models/ |website=Intuition |access-date=2 April 2021 |date=22 July 2020}}{{cite news |title=Traders Rewriting Risk Models After Oil's Plunge Below Zero |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-21/negative-oil-prices-are-literally-breaking-traders-risk-models |access-date=3 April 2021 |work=Bloomberg.com |date=21 April 2020 |language=en}} As a result, in April 2020 amid the collapse in oil prices, the CME Group clearinghouse switched to the Bachelier model for pricing options in order to account for negative future prices.{{cite news |title=Switch to Bachelier Options Pricing Model - Effective April 22, 2020 - CME Group |url=https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2020/04/Chadv20-171.html |access-date=3 April 2021 |publisher=CME Group |language=en}}

• Bad (economics)
• Negative interest rate

{{reflist}}

• {{cite news |title=MCX negative oil futures pricing mess: Jury out on contract law |url=https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news/mcx-negative-oil-futures-pricing-mess-jury-out-on-contract-law/articleshow/75324865.cms |access-date=3 April 2021 |work=The Economic Times}}

Category:Electricity economics

Category:Pricing