order of integration
{{Short description|Summary statistic}}
{{For|the technique for simplifying evaluation of integrals|Order of integration (calculus)}}
In statistics, the order of integration, denoted I(d), of a time series is a summary statistic, which reports the minimum number of differences required to obtain a covariance-stationary series (i.e., a time series whose mean and autocovariance remain constant over time).
The order of integration is a key concept in time series analysis, particularly when dealing with non-stationary data that exhibits trends or other forms of non-stationarity.
Integration of order ''d''
A time series is integrated of order d if
:
is a stationary process, where is the lag operator and is the first difference, i.e.
:
In other words, a process is integrated to order d if taking repeated differences d times yields a stationary process.
In particular, if a series is integrated of order 0, then is stationary.
Constructing an integrated series
An I(d) process can be constructed by summing an I(d − 1) process:
- Suppose is I(d − 1)
- Now construct a series
- Show that Z is I(d) by observing its first-differences are I(d − 1):
::
: where
::
See also
{{More footnotes|date=December 2009}}
References
- Hamilton, James D. (1994) Time Series Analysis. Princeton University Press. p. 437. {{ISBN|0-691-04289-6}}.