seismic gap
A seismic gap is a segment of an active fault known to produce significant earthquakes that has not slipped in an unusually long time, compared with other segments along the same structure. There is a hypothesis or theory that states that over long periods, the displacement on any segment must be equal to that experienced by all the other parts of the fault.{{cite journal | url=https://doi.org/10.1007%2FBF00876211 | doi=10.1007/BF00876211 | title=Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries | year=1979 | last1=McCann | first1=W. R. | last2=Nishenko | first2=S. P. | last3=Sykes | first3=L. R. | last4=Krause | first4=J. | journal=Pure and Applied Geophysics Pageoph | volume=117 | issue=6 | pages=1082–1147 | bibcode=1979PApGe.117.1082M | s2cid=129377355 | url-access=subscription }} Any large and longstanding gap is, therefore, considered to be the fault segment most likely to suffer future earthquakes.
The applicability of this approach has been criticised by some seismologists,{{cite journal|doi=10.1029/91JB02210 | bibcode=1991JGR....9621419K | volume=96 | title=Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten years after | year=1991 | journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth | pages=21419–21431 | last1 = Kagan | first1 = Yan Y. | last2 = Jackson | first2 = David D.| issue=B13 }} although earthquakes sometimes have occurred in previously identified seismic gaps.
Examples
Image:USGS 1045 Fig5.jpg showing recorded seismic activity A) 20 years before the Loma Prieta event, B) The main shock (large circle) and aftershocks for the Loma Prieta event, USGS Circular 1045]]
=Loma Prieta Seismic Gap, California=
Prior to the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake({{m|w|link=y}} = 6.9{{Short-anss|Loma Prieta|1989|sub-title=Origin|sub-url=origin|2019-04-01}}), that segment of the San Andreas Fault system recorded much less seismic activity than other parts of the fault.[https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/djvu/CIR/circ_1045.djvu Lessons Learned from the Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989. U.S.G.S. Circular 1045 N.B. requires free ie djvu plug-in to view] The main shock and aftershocks of the 1989 event occurred within the previous seismic gap.
=Central Kuril gap, Russia=
Immediately following the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, a seismic gap analysis of the seismic zones around the Pacific Ocean identified the Central Kuril segment of the Kuril–Kamchatka Trench subduction zone as the most likely to give rise to a major earthquake.[http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU2007/05040/EGU2007-J-05040.pdf Baranov, B., Lobkovsky, L., Ivaschenko, A., Kulinich, R. & B. Karp, B. 2007. The Central Kuril Earthquakes and Tsunamis of 15 November 2006 and 13 January 2007: Findings of a Pre-event geophysical field survey. EGU Abstracts] This zone, 500 km in length, at that time had experienced no major earthquake since 1780, but was bounded to north and south by segments that had moved within the last 100 years. The Mw = 8.3 earthquake of 15 November 2006 and the {{M|w|link=y}} = 8.2 earthquake of 13 January 2007 occurred within the defined gap.
=Central Himalayan Gap, India=
Although there had been earthquakes to the west (near Delhi) in 1905, and to the east (Nepal–India earthquake) in 1934, there was a 600-kilometer-long region of the central Himalayan that had not ruptured since 1505.Lutgens, F. K., Tarbuck, E. J., Tasa, D. 2012. Essentials of Geology. Prentice Hall. p 355. In April 2015, the 7.8 {{M|w|link=y}} April 2015 Nepal earthquake occurred near the center of this region.
=Cascadia, United States–Canada=
The only known damaging earthquakes to have occurred in the Cascadia subduction zone since the 1700 Cascadia earthquake are the 1946 Vancouver Island earthquake and 2001 Nisqually earthquake.
=Meiktila gap, Myanmar=
On the Sagaing Fault, geologists identified a {{cvt|260|km}} long section of the fault between Mandalay and Naypyidaw with no historical ruptures since at least 1918. They published their findings in 2011 and concluded that at least {{cvt|2|m}} of slip had accumulated along the length of the gap. If the entire gap ruptured, the expected magnitude would be around 7.9.{{cite journal|last1=Hurukawa|first1=Nobuo|last2=Maung|first2=Phyo Maung|title=Two seismic gaps on the Sagaing Fault, Myanmar, derived from relocation of historical earthquakes since 1918|journal=Geophysical Research Letters|year=2011|volume=38|issue=L01310|doi=10.1029/2010GL046099|bibcode=2011GeoRL..38.1310H}} Another study in 2014 sugested that the seismic gap last ruptured during the 23 March 1839 earthquake.{{cite journal|last1=Wang|first1=Yu|last2=Sieh|first2=Kerry|last3=Tun|first3=Soe Thura|last4=Lai|first4=Kuang-Yin|last5=Myint|first5=Than|title=Active tectonics and earthquake potential of the Myanmar region|journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth|year=2014|volume=119|issue=4|pages=3767–3822|doi=10.1002/2013JB010762|bibcode=2014JGRB..119.3767W|hdl=10220/19774|hdl-access=free}} On 28 March 2025, a {{cvt|500|km}} section of the Sagaing Fault, including the {{cvt|260|km}} gap, ruptured in a magnitude 7.7 earthquake.{{cite news|last1=Bradley|first1=Kyle|last2=Hubbard|first2=Judith A.|title=Surface ruptures of the Myanmar M7.7 earthquake mapped from space|url=https://earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/surface-ruptures-of-the-myanmar-m77|doi=10.62481/51b7df8c|access-date=2 April 2025|work=Earthquake Insights|date=2 April 2025}}
References
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External links
- [https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/glossary.php?term=seismic%20gap USGS glossary entry]
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