unified growth theory

{{Short description|Theory of economic growth}}

Unified growth theory was developed in light of the alleged failure of endogenous growth theory to capture key empirical regularities in the growth processes and their contribution to the momentous rise in inequality across nations in the past two centuries.{{cite book|title=Unified Growth Theory|last1=Galor|first1=Oded|date=2011|publisher=Princeton University Press|isbn=9781400838868|location=Princeton}}Galor, Oded (2005). "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory." In: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (eds.). Handbook of Economic Growth. Amsterdam: Elsevier. Edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4: 171-293.
{{Cite journal|last1=Galor|first1=Oded|last2=Weil|first2=David N.|date=2000|title=Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond|url=https://www.brown.edu/academics/economics/sites/brown.edu.academics.economics/files/uploads/1999-35.pdf|journal=American Economic Review|volume=90|issue=4|pages=806–828|doi=10.1257/aer.90.4.806}}{{Cite journal|last1=Ashraf|first1=Quamrul|last2=Galor|first2=Oded|date=2011|title=Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch|journal=American Economic Review|volume=101|issue=5|pages=2003–2041|doi=10.1257/aer.101.5.2003|pmid=25506082|pmc=4262154}}{{cite journal|last1=Komlos|first1=John|last2=Artzrouni|first2=Marc|date=1990|title=Mathematical Investigations of the Escape from the Malthusian Trap|url=https://epub.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3427/1/2.pdf|journal=Mathematical Population Studies|volume=2|issue=4|pages=269–287|doi=10.1080/08898489009525313|pmid=12283330}}

Unified growth theory suggests that during most of human existence, technological progress was offset by population growth, and living standards were near subsistence across time and space.{{Cite book |last=Artzrouni |first=Marc |url=https://epub.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3428/1/3428.pdf |title=Population Growth through History and the Escape from the Malthusian Trap: A Homeostatic Simulation Model |publisher=Genus 41 |year=1985 |pages=3–4; 21–40}}{{Cite journal |year=2000 |title=The Industrial Revolution as the Escape from the Malthusian Trap |url=http://www.jeeh.it/articolo?urn=urn:abi:abi:RIV.JOU:2000;2.307&ev=1 |journal=Journal of European Economic History |volume=29 |issue=2–3 |pages=307–331}}

The testable predictions of the theory and its underlying mechanisms have been confirmed in empirical and quantitative research in the past decade, and have inspired intensive exploration of the impact of historical and pre-historical forces on comparative economic development and the disparity in the wealth of nations.{{cite journal |last1=Ashraf |first1=Quamrul |last2=Galor |first2=Oded |title=Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch |journal=American Economic Review |date=2011 |volume=101 |issue=5 |pages=2003–2041 |doi=10.1257/aer.101.5.2003 |pmid=25506082 |pmc=4262154}}{{cite journal |last1=Franck |first1=Raphaël |last2=Galor |first2=Oded |date=2016 |title=Technology-Skill Complementarity in the Early Phase of Industrialization |journal=IZA Discussion Papers 9758 - Institute for the Study of Labor}}
{{cite journal |last1=de Pleijt |first1=Alexandra |last2=Nuvolari |first2=Alessandro |last3=Weisdorf |first3=Jacob |date=2018 |title=Human Capital Formation during the First Industrial Revolution: Evidence from the Use of Steam Engines |url=https://academic.oup.com/jeea/article/18/2/829/5398135?guestAccessKey=45c927c2-818b-4d9b-aeca-5f2b7239c4a2&login=false |journal=Journal of the European Economic Association |volume=18 |pages=829–889}}{{cite journal |last1=Becker |first1=Sascha |last2=Cinnirella |first2=Francesco |last3=Woessmann |first3=Ludger |date=2010 |title=The trade-off between fertility and education: evidence from before the demographic transition |url=http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/5209/1/WRAP_Becker_0972697-ec-150911-fertility_20100530.pdf |journal=Journal of Economic Growth |volume=15 |issue=3 |pages=177–204 |doi=10.1007/s10887-010-9054-x |s2cid=16014490 |hdl-access=free |hdl=1893/1598}}
{{cite journal |last1=Murphy |first1=Tommy |date=2015 |title=Old habits die hard (sometimes) |journal=Journal of Economic Growth |volume=20 |issue=2 |pages=177–222 |doi=10.1007/s10887-015-9111-6 |s2cid=154506639}}
{{cite journal |last1=Fernihough |first1=Alan |date=2017 |title=Human capital and the quantity–quality trade-off during the demographic transition |url=https://pureadmin.qub.ac.uk/ws/files/109294392/alan_fern.pdf |journal=Journal of Economic Growth |volume=22 |issue=1 |pages=35–65 |doi=10.1007/s10887-016-9138-3 |doi-access=free}}
{{cite journal |last1=Klemp |first1=Marc |last2=Weisdorf |first2=Jacob |date=2018 |title=Fecundity, Fertility and the Formation of Human Capital |url=https://academic.oup.com/ej/article/129/618/925/5289462?guestAccessKey=a34bf052-c6fe-4b74-965e-e2bbb15c0f71&login=false |journal=Economic Journal |volume=129 |pages=925–960}}
{{cite journal |last1=Shiue |first1=Carol H. |date=2017 |title=Human capital and fertility in Chinese clans before modern growth |url=http://www.nber.org/papers/w19661.pdf |journal=Journal of Economic Growth |volume=22 |issue=4 |pages=351–396 |doi=10.1007/s10887-017-9148-9 |s2cid=73715675}} (d) the theory as a whole was explored quantitatively.{{cite journal |last1=Lagerlöf |first1=Nils-Petter |title=The Galor-Weil Model Revisited: A Quantitative Exercise |journal=Review of Economic Dynamics |date=2006 |volume=9 |issue=1 |pages=116–142 |doi=10.1016/j.red.2005.07.002}}{{cite journal|last1=Galor|first1=Oded|last2=Moav|first2=Omer|date=2002|title=Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth|journal=The Quarterly Journal of Economics|volume=117|issue=4|pages=1133–1191|doi=10.1162/003355302320935007|hdl=10419/80194|hdl-access=free}} Traits that were complementary to the technological environment generated higher level of income, and therefore higher reproductive success. Testable predictions of this evolutionary theory and its underlying mechanisms have been confirmed empirically{{cite journal|last1=Galor|first1=Oded|last2=Klemp|first2=Mark|date=2018|title=Human Genealogy Establishes Selective Advantage to Moderate Fertility}} and quantitatively.{{cite journal|last1=Collins|first1=Jason|last2=Baer|first2=Boris|last3=Weber|first3=Ernst Juerg|date=2014|title=Economic Growth And Evolution: Parental Preference For Quality And Quantity Of Offspring|journal=Macroeconomic Dynamics|volume=18|issue=8|pages=1773–1796|doi=10.1017/s1365100513000163|s2cid=28274524 |url=https://api.research-repository.uwa.edu.au/files/95932315/11-05.pdf}}