:Richard Tol

{{Infobox economist

| name = Richard Tol

| school_tradition =

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| caption = Richard Tol

| birth_date = {{Birth date and age|df=y|1969|12|2}}

| birth_place = Zwaag (Hoorn), Netherlands

| death_date =

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| nationality = Dutch

| institution = University of Sussex

| field = Environmental economics

| alma_mater = Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

| influences = Pier Vellinga, Harmen Verbruggen, Aart de Vos

| influenced =

| contributions = Economics of global warming

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}}

Richard S. J. Tol (born 2 December 1969, Hoorn, the Netherlands) is a professor of economics at the University of Sussex. He is also professor of the economics of climate change at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. He is a member of the Academia Europaea.

Academic career

Tol obtained an MSc in econometrics & operations research in 1992 and a PhD in economics in 1997 at the VU University Amsterdam. His doctoral thesis was titled, A decision-analytic treatise of the enhanced greenhouse effect.{{cite book | title=A decision-analytic treatise of the enhanced greenhouse effect |author=Tol, Richard S.J. |year=1997 | publisher=Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam |oclc = 068588209}} In 1998, he contributed with some nineteen other academics to a joint project of the United Nations Environment Programme at his home university.{{cite book|last=Feenstra|first=J.F.|date=1998|title=Handbook on Methods. for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies|url=http://dare.ubvu.vu.nl/bitstream/1871/10440/1/f1.pdf|accessdate=10 October 2008|archive-date=12 January 2011|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110112022520/http://dare.ubvu.vu.nl/bitstream/1871/10440/1/f1.pdf|url-status=live}}

Tol regularly participates in studies of the Energy Modeling Forum, is an editor of Energy Economics, associate editor of Environmental and Resource Economics, and a member of the editorial board of Environmental Science and Policy, and Integrated Assessment. IDEAS/RePEc ranks him among the top 250 economists in the world.{{Cite web |url=http://ideas.repec.org/top/top.person.all.html#pto90 |title=Top 5% Authors on IDEAS/RePEc |access-date=14 March 2009 |archive-date=26 October 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121026200406/http://ideas.repec.org/top/top.person.all.html#pto90 |url-status=live }}

Tol specialises in energy economics and environmental economics, with a particular interest in climate change, such as the economics of global warming. Previously, Tol was a research professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute. Before that, Tol was the Michael Otto Professor of Sustainability and Global Change and director of the Center for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences and board member of the Center for Marine and Climate Research at the University of Hamburg. Tol was a board member of the International Max Planck Research Schools on Earth System Modeling and Maritime Affairs and the European Forum on Integrated Environmental Assessment.{{cite book | last = Solomon | first = Lawrence | authorlink = Lawrence Solomon | year = 2010 | title = The Deniers: The world-renowned scientists who stood up against global warming hysteria, political persecution, and fraud | publisher = Richard Vigilante Books | location = United States | isbn = 978-0-9800763-7-0| title-link = The Deniers }}, p. 20. From 1998 to 2008 he was an adjunct professor at Carnegie Mellon University's Department of Engineering and Public Policy, and from 2010 to 2011 an adjunct professor at Trinity College, Dublin's Department of Economics.

Climate change

Tol considers the impact of climate change to be "relatively small".{{Cite web

| first = Richard

| last = Tol

|title=Why Worry About Climate Change?

|url = http://www.esri.ie/UserFiles/publications/20090421154843/RB20090101.pdf

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111016173500/http://www.esri.ie/UserFiles/publications/20090421154843/RB20090101.pdf

|archive-date=2011-10-16

| series = ESRI Research Bulletin 2009/1/1

| year = 2009

|location= Dublin

|website=Economic and Social Research Institute

}} Despite being an economist he was also among the US Senate Republican Party's "list of scientists disputing man-made global warming claims", which stated that Tol "dismissed the idea that mankind must act now to prevent catastrophic global warming".{{cite web |title=U.S. Senate Report: Over 400 Prominent Scientists Disputed Man-Made Global Warming Claims in 2007 |url=http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport |website=www.epw.senate.gov |access-date=22 May 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100202204716/http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport |archive-date=2010-02-02 |quote=Tol, one of the authors of three of the IPCC Working Groups, dismissed the idea that mankind must act now to prevent catastrophic global warming, according a February 2, 2007 article in Canada's National Post. |url-status=dead}}

Tol characterises his position as arguing that the economic costs of climate policy should be kept in proportion to its benefits.[https://www.newscientist.com/channel/opinion/mg19626324.000-economics-demands-action-on-climate-change.html New Scientist, Dec 5, 2007]

In an interview with Der Spiegel in 2005, he argued that temperature rises between 2–4 °C would also have advantages. North of a line drawn from Paris to Munich, people would benefit, e.g., from reduced energy bills. However, south of it, people would be overall "losers" of climate change.{{cite web |title=Trauertag für das Klima |url=https://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/news/spiegel-Tol-interview.pdf |publisher=Der Spiegel |access-date=23 May 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070810140346/http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/news/spiegel-Tol-interview.pdf |archive-date=2007-08-10 |date=February 21, 2005 |url-status=dead}}

In 2006 he argued against the 2 °C 'guardrail' target for limiting temperature rises.{{cite journal |last=Tol |first=Richard S. J. |date=January 2007 |title=Europe's long-term climate target: A critical evaluation |journal=Energy Policy |volume=35 |issue=1 |pages=424–432 |doi=10.1016/j.enpol.2005.12.003 |bibcode=2007EnPol..35..424T |citeseerx=10.1.1.175.5572}} Tol does not advocate another target, but has suggested that a carbon tax of $20/tC would be a policy in line with estimates of the cost of carbon.{{Cite web |url=http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2008-25 |title=R.S.J. Tol (2008), The Social Cost of Carbon: Trends, Outliers and Catastrophes, Economics the E-Journal, 2008–25 |access-date=10 October 2008 |archive-date=22 December 2008 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081222090816/http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2008-25 |url-status=dead }} He acknowledges that this level of taxation is too low to significantly discourage fossil fuel use but argues it would help to stimulate the development of fuel-saving technology and improve the competitiveness of renewable energy sources. He states that compliance may affect the coal and oil industries and the people they employ.{{Citation needed|date=December 2014}}

In 2007, Tol predicted a reduction in annual economic growth of 0.3-0.4% in the Republic of Ireland if greenhouse gases were reduced by 3% per year.{{cite news |last1=Kelly |first1=Olivia |title=Emissions plan 'best forgotten' |url=http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2007/1220/1197997063183.html |access-date=23 May 2025 |publisher=irishtimes.com |date=December 20, 2007 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101109163229/http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2007/1220/1197997063183.html |archive-date=2010-11-09 |quote=The economy is projected to grow by 2.9 per cent, but if the limits on industry imposed by the climate policy were implemented, this would reduce growth to 2.5 to 2.6 per cent |url-status=dead}}

In 2009, Tol published a controversial paper that combined data from several earlier studies, concluding that at least some amount of global warming could lead to economic gains.{{Cite journal | doi = 10.1257/jep.23.2.29| title = The Economic Effects of Climate Change| journal = Journal of Economic Perspectives| volume = 23| issue = 2| pages = 29–51| year = 2009| last1 = Tol | first1 = R. S. J. | doi-access = free}} In 2014, he published an update, correcting missing minus signs that had turned economic costs into benefits and adding data overlooked before; the mistakes he attributed to "gremlins". According to Tol, the old and new results were not significantly different.{{Cite journal| doi = 10.1257/jep.28.2.221| title = Correction and Update: The Economic Effects of Climate Change| journal = Journal of Economic Perspectives| volume = 28| issue = 2| pages = 221–226| year = 2014| last1 = Tol | first1 = R.S.J.| s2cid = 154621000| doi-access = free}} The degree to which the corrected, more pessimistic results alter the original conclusions and their policy implications was hotly debated.{{cite web |url=http://retractionwatch.com/2014/05/21/gremlins-caused-errors-in-climate-change-paper-showing-gains-from-global-warming/ |title="Gremlins" caused errors in climate change paper showing gains from global warming |author=Adam Marcus |date=21 May 2014 |work=Retraction Watch |accessdate=27 June 2014}}{{cite web |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/23/the-gremlins-did-it-iffy-curve-fit-drives-strong-policy-conclusions/ |title=The gremlins did it? Iffy statistics drive strong policy recommendations |author=Andrew Gelman |date=23 May 2014 |work=Monkey Cage |accessdate=27 June 2014 |archive-date=7 June 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140607051316/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/23/the-gremlins-did-it-iffy-curve-fit-drives-strong-policy-conclusions/ |url-status=live }} In 2015 it was reported that a second round of corrections to the paper was necessary.{{cite web |last1=Keith |first1=Ross |title=Second correction for controversial paper on the financial benefits of climate change |url=http://retractionwatch.com/2015/07/22/second-correction-for-controversial-paper-on-economic-gains-of-climate-change/ |website=Retraction Watch |accessdate=27 July 2015 |date=22 July 2015 |archive-date=24 July 2015 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150724232016/http://retractionwatch.com/2015/07/22/second-correction-for-controversial-paper-on-economic-gains-of-climate-change/ |url-status=live }}

Tol was a coordinating lead author of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Working Group II,{{cite news |title=Errors in estimates of the aggregate economic impacts of climate change – Part III |url=https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/news/errors-in-estimates-of-the-aggregate-economic-impacts-of-climate-change-part-iii/ |access-date=23 May 2025 |work=Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment |quote=In previous commentaries on 2 April and 15 April, I described my ongoing efforts to have some small but significant errors corrected in three papers by Professor Richard Tol and in a Chapter on which he is a Coordinating Lead Author of the contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.}} contributing to the economics chapter.{{cite news |last1=Ward |first1=Bob |title=IPCC corrects claim suggesting climate change would be good for the economy |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/17/ipcc-corrects-claim-suggesting-climate-change-would-be-good-for-the-economy |work=The Guardian |date=17 October 2014 |quote=It was based on a paper by Richard Tol, a professor of economics at the University of Sussex, who was also a coordinating lead author on the economics chapter of the IPCC report.}} Tol said in March 2014 that he had withdrawn from the writing team for the Summary for Policy Makers of the report in September 2013, citing disagreement with the profile of the report which he considered too alarmist and putting too little emphasis on opportunities to adapt to climate changes.[https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/27/ipcc-author-climate-report-alarmist IPCC author brands upcoming climate report 'alarmist'] The Guardian. 28 March 2014. Retrieved 29 March 2014

=Copenhagen Consensus=

Bjørn Lomborg chose Tol to participate in his "Copenhagen Consensus" project in 2008. In 2008, Tol collaborated with Gary Yohe, Richard G. Richels, and Geoffrey Blanford to prepare the "Challenge Paper" on global warming which examined three approaches devised by Lomborg for tackling the issue.{{cite web

| last1 = Yohe | first1 = Gary

| last2 = Tol | first2 = Richard

| title = Copenhagen Consensus Challenge Paper 2008: Global Warming

| location = Copenhagen

| year = 2008

| url = http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/Admin/Public/DWSDownload.aspx?File=%2fFiles%2fFiler%2fCC08%2fPapers%2f0+Challenge+Papers%2fCP_Global_Warming_-_Yohe.pdf

}} The 3 results were then compared with 27 similar investigations, 3 each relating to 9 other 'challenges' in the areas of health and environment. Of the 30 policy alternatives that resulted, Lomborg's ranking procedure rated the 2 dealing with controlling emissions of greenhouse gases 29th and 30th in terms of cost effectiveness.

A "perspective paper" by Anil Markandya of the University of Bath on the Yohe/Tol study stated that "a short time period analysis is misleading" when all the costs are incurred during the period examined but benefits continue to accrue after its conclusion.{{cite web

| last1 = Markandya | first1 = Anil

| title = Copenhagen Consensus 2008 Perspective Paper: Global Warming

| location = Copenhagen

| year = 2008

| url = http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/Admin/Public/DWSDownload.aspx?File=%2fFiles%2fFiler%2fCC08%2fPapers%2f1+Perspective+Papers%2fPP_Global_Warming_-_Markandya.pdf

}} He pointed out that the study "stops short of the most that can be supported on a cost benefit basis" and stated that "it does not seem reasonable" to rely solely on Tol's own FUND model when alternatives "reported in the peer-reviewed literature are also credible".

Gary Yohe later accused Lomborg of "deliberate distortion of our conclusions",{{cite news| url=https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/aug/22/climatechange.carbonemissions | work=The Guardian | location=London | title=Climate change is real, compelling and urgent | first=Gary | last=Yohe | date=22 August 2008 | accessdate=22 May 2010}} adding that "as one of the authors of the Copenhagen Consensus Project's principal climate paper, I can say with certainty that Lomborg is misrepresenting our findings thanks to a highly selective memory". In a subsequent joint statement settling their differences, Lomborg and Yohe agreed that the "failure" of Lomborg's emissions reduction plan "could be traced to faulty design".{{cite news| url=https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/sep/01/climatechange.scienceofclimatechange1 | work=The Guardian | location=London | title=It's not about us | first=Björn | last=Lomborg | date=1 September 2008 | accessdate=22 May 2010}}

Lomborg awarded Tol a position on his Copenhagen Consensus panel again in 2009. Tol said that Lomborg "plays a useful role in the debate on climate policy".{{cite web|url=http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/04/30/economics-voodoo-and-climate-policy/ |title=The Irish Economy » Blog Archive » Economics, voodoo, and climate policy |publisher=Irisheconomy.ie |date=30 April 2010 |accessdate=9 June 2012}}