1995 Castilian-Manchegan regional election

{{Short description|Election in the Spanish region of Castilla–La Mancha}}

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 1995 Castilian-Manchegan regional election

| country = Castilla–La Mancha

| type = parliamentary

| ongoing = no

| previous_election = 1991 Castilian-Manchegan regional election

| previous_year = 1991

| next_election = 1999 Castilian-Manchegan regional election

| next_year = 1999

| outgoing_members =

| elected_members =

| seats_for_election = All 47 seats in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha

| majority_seats = 24

| opinion_polls = #Opinion polls

| registered = 1,352,958 File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg3.7%

| turnout = 1,066,571 (78.8%)
File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg6.3 pp

| election_date = 28 May 1995

| image1 = 170x170px

| leader1 = José Bono

| party1 = Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha

| leader_since1 = 25 March 1983

| leaders_seat1 = Toledo

| last_election1 = 27 seats, 52.2%

| seats1 = 24

| seat_change1 = File:Red Arrow Down.svg3

| popular_vote1 = 483,888

| percentage1 = 45.7%

| swing1 = File:Red Arrow Down.svg6.5 pp

| image2 = 170x170px

| leader2 = José Manuel Molina

| party2 = People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha

| leader_since2 = 23 December 1989

| leaders_seat2 = Toledo

| last_election2 = 19 seats, 35.9%

| seats2 = 22

| seat_change2 = File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg3

| popular_vote2 = 469,127

| percentage2 = 44.3%

| swing2 = File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg8.4 pp

| image3 = 170x170px

| leader3 = José Molina Martínez

| party3 = IU–ICAM

| colour3 = 732021

| leader_since3 = 1991

| leaders_seat3 = Albacete

| last_election3 = 1 seat, 6.2%

| seats3 = 1

| seat_change3 = File:Arrow Blue Right 001.svg0

| popular_vote3 = 80,482

| percentage3 = 7.6%

| swing3 = File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg1.4 pp

| map_image = CastillaLaManchaProvinceMapCortes1995.svg

| map_size = 300px

| map_caption = Constituency results map for the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha

| title = President

| before_election = José Bono

| before_party = Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha

| after_election = José Bono

| after_party = Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha

}}

The 1995 Castilian-Manchegan regional election was held on Sunday, 28 May 1995, to elect the 4th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha. All 47 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Despite bearing enormous losses, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) was able to maintain government, albeit with a mere 1-seat majority. The People's Party (PP), which in this election made the greatest gains, finished a close second but remained unable to win the PSOE in one of its — considered — strongest strongholds. Meanwhile, United Left (IU) maintained its presence in the Courts and was able to increase both its vote support and share, but remained unable to gain new seats.

Overview

=Electoral system=

The Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Manchegan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Junta of Communities.{{cite act |title=Statute of Autonomy of Castilla–La Mancha of 1982 |type=Organic Law |number=9 |work=Official State Gazette |language=es |date=10 August 1982 |url=https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-1982-20820&tn=1&p=19940325 |access-date=15 September 2017}} Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castilla–La Mancha and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 47 members of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.{{cite web |last=Gallagher |first=Michael |date=30 July 2012 |url=http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/staff/michael_gallagher/ElSystems/Docts/effthresh.php |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170730092518/http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/staff/michael_gallagher/ElSystems/Docts/effthresh.php |url-status=dead |archive-date=30 July 2017 |title=Effective threshold in electoral systems |publisher=Trinity College, Dublin |access-date=22 July 2017}} Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Guadalajara and Toledo. Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of five seats, with the remaining 22 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.{{cite act |title=Castilla–La Mancha Electoral Law of 1986 |type=Law |number=5 |work=Official Journal of Castilla–La Mancha |language=es |date=23 December 1986 |url=https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-1987-2164&tn=1&p=19941230 |access-date=15 September 2017}}

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.{{cite act |title=General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985 |type=Organic Law |number=5 |work=Official State Gazette |language=es |date=19 June 1985 |url=https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-1985-11672&tn=1&p=19950324 |access-date=28 December 2016}}{{cite web |url=http://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/documentos/LOREG_ENG |title=Representation of the people Institutional Act |website=www.juntaelectoralcentral.es |publisher=Central Electoral Commission |access-date=16 June 2017}}

=Election date=

The term of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha expired four years after the date of their previous election. Elections to the Cortes were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 26 May 1991, setting the election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 28 May 1995.

The Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha could not be dissolved before the date of expiry of parliament. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected.

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 24 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha.

;{{smaller|Color key:}}

{{smaller|{{legend2|#EAFFEA|Exit poll|border=1px solid #AAAAAA}}}}

class="wikitable collapsible collapsed" style="text-align:center; font-size:95%; line-height:16px;"
style="height:42px;"

! style="width:250px;" rowspan="2"| Polling firm/Commissioner

! style="width:125px;" rowspan="2"| Fieldwork date

! style="width:50px;" rowspan="2"| Sample size

! style="width:45px;" rowspan="2"| Turnout

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo PSOE, 1976-2001.svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:People's Party (Spain) Logo (1993-2000).svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo-izquierda-unida2.png

! style="width:20px;" rowspan="2"| Lead

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|United Left (Spain)}};"|

colspan="8" style="background:#A0A0A0"|
style="background:#EFEFEF;"

| 1995 regional election

| 28 May 1995

| {{N/A}}

| 78.8

| {{Party shading/PSOE}}| 45.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=24}}

| 44.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=22}}

| 7.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=1}}

| style="background:{{party color|Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}; color:white;"| 1.4

colspan="8" style="background:#A0A0A0"|
style="background:#EAFFEA;"

| Eco Consulting/RTVE{{cite web |title=El PP se impuso en diez comunidades |url=http://diariodenavarra.mynewsonline.com/index.php?screen=preview&ref=NAV19950529G004 |language=es |work=Diario de Navarra |date=29 May 1995}}

| 28 May 1995

|?

|?

| 43.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=21/22}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 44.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=22/24}}

| 8.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2/4}}

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}; color:white;"| 1.0

style="background:#EAFFEA;"

| Vox Pública–ODEC/Antena 3

| 28 May 1995

|?

|?

|?
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=19/22}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}|?
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=24/25}}

|?
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=1/3}}

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}; color:white;"|?

Demoscopia/El País{{cite web |title=El PP será la fuerza más votada en 12 comunidades |url=http://elpais.com/diario/1995/05/20/espana/800920832_850215.html |language=es |work=El País |date=20 May 1995}}{{cite web |title=El tirón de Bono mantiene la incógnita |url=https://elpais.com/diario/1995/05/20/espana/800920824_850215.html |language=es |work=El País |date=20 May 1995}}{{cite web |title=Mañana, previsiones para las municipales |url=https://elpais.com/diario/1995/05/20/espana/800920801_850215.html |language=es |work=El País |date=20 May 1995}}{{cite web |title=El PP gana en doce autonomías y el PSOE sólo en Extremadura, según un sondeo |url=http://hemeroteca.lavanguardia.com/preview/1995/05/21/pagina-16/33769178/pdf.html |language=es |work=La Vanguardia |date=21 May 1995}}

| 10–15 May 1995

| 1,000

|?

| 41.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=20/23}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 47.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=23/25}}

| 8.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2/4}}

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}; color:white;"| 5.1

CIS{{cite web |title=Preelectoral Comunidad Autónoma de Castilla–La Mancha (Estudio 2165. Abril-Mayo 1995) |url=http://www.cis.es/cis/export/sites/default/-Archivos/Marginales/2160_2179/2165/e216500.html |language=es |work=CIS |date=10 May 1995}}{{cite web |title=Estudio CIS nº 2165. Ficha técnica |url=http://www.cis.es/cis/export/sites/default/-Archivos/Marginales/2160_2179/2165/FT2165.pdf |language=es |work=CIS |date=10 May 1995}}

| 24 Apr–10 May 1995

| 1,696

| 75.1

| 44.2

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 45.3

| 8.7

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}; color:white;"| 1.1

Gruppo/ABC{{cite web |title=El PP ganaría hoy en Castilla–La Mancha por mayoría absoluta |url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/madrid/abc/1994/10/30/077.html |language=es |work=ABC |date=30 October 1994}}

| 24–27 Sep 1994

| 1,000

|?

| 36.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=16/19}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 47.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=24/27}}

| 11.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=4}}

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}; color:white;"| 11.0

style="background:#EFEFEF;"

| 1994 EP election

| 12 Jun 1994

| {{N/A}}

| 65.5

| 37.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=18}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 47.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=25}}

| 10.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=4}}

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}; color:white;"| 10.0

Gruppo/ABC{{cite web |title=El PP rozaría la mayoría absoluta en Castilla–La Mancha, según una encuesta de Gruppo para ABC |url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/madrid/abc/1994/05/22/084.html |language=es |work=ABC |date=22 May 1994}}

| 10–11 May 1994

| 1,000

|?

| 39.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=18/21}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 46.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=23/25}}

| 10.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3/4}}

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}; color:white;"| 7.4

Sigma Dos/ABC{{cite web |title=El PSOE perdería hoy la mayoría en Castilla–La Mancha, según una encuesta de Sigma 2 para ABC |url=http://hemeroteca.abc.es/nav/Navigate.exe/hemeroteca/madrid/abc/1994/02/27/080.html |language=es |work=ABC |date=27 February 1994}}

| 28–31 Jan 1994

| 1,000

|?

| 42.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=21/22}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 44.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=22/23}}

| 9.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2/4}}

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}; color:white;"| 2.4

style="background:#EFEFEF;"

| 1993 general election

| 6 Jun 1993

| {{N/A}}

| 82.1

| {{Party shading/PSOE}}| 45.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=24}}

| 43.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=22}}

| 7.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=1}}

| style="background:{{party color|Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}; color:white;"| 2.3

colspan="8" style="background:#A0A0A0"|
style="background:#EFEFEF;"

| 1991 regional election

| 26 May 1991

| {{N/A}}

| 72.5

| {{Party shading/PSOE}}| 52.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=27}}

| 35.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=19}}

| 6.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=1}}

| style="background:{{party color|Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}; color:white;"| 16.3

colspan="8" style="background:#A0A0A0"|

Results

=Overall=

class="wikitable" style="text-align:right;"

|+ Summary of the 28 May 1995 Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha election results

colspan="7"| File:Castilla-LaManchaCortesDiagram1995.svg
style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2" colspan="2" width="525"| Parties and alliances

! colspan="3"| Popular vote

! colspan="2"| Seats

width="75"| Votes

! width="45"| %

! width="45"| ±pp

! width="35"| Total

! width="35"| +/−

width="1" style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}"|

| align="left"| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)

| 483,888

45.70style="color:red;"| –6.47

| 24

style="color:red;"| –3
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}"|

| align="left"| People's Party (PP)

| 469,127

44.30style="color:green;"| +8.45

| 22

style="color:green;"| +3
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|United Left (Spain)}}"|

| align="left"| United Left–Left of Castilla–La Mancha (IU–ICAM)

| 80,482

7.60style="color:green;"| +1.43

| 1

±0
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Democratic and Social Centre (Spain)}}"|

| align="left"| Centrist Union (UC)

| 4,288

0.40style="color:red;"| –3.09

| 0

±0
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Regionalist Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}"|

| align="left"| Regionalist Party of Castilla–La Mancha (PRCM)

| 3,121

0.29style="color:green;"| +0.19

| 0

±0
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Independent Candidacy}}"|

| align="left"| Action for Talavera Region (ACTAL)

| 2,015

0.19style="color:red;"| –0.07

| 0

±0
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|The Greens–Green Group}}"|

| align="left"| The Greens–Green Group (LV–GV)

| 1,474

0.14New

| 0

±0
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Commoners' Land}}"|

| align="left"| Commoners' Land–Castilian Nationalist Party (TC–PNC)

| 1,406

0.13style="color:green;"| +0.03

| 0

±0
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Regionalist Party of Guadalajara}}"|

| align="left"| Regionalist Party of Guadalajara (PRGU)

| 543

0.05style="color:red;"| –0.03

| 0

±0
bgcolor="white"|

| align="left"| Guadalajara Independent Union (UIG)

| 513

0.05New

| 0

±0
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Falange Española de las JONS (1976)}}"|

| align="left"| Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS)

| 498

0.05New

| 0

±0
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Independent Regional Unity}}"|

| align="left"| Independent Regional Unity (URI)

| 391

0.04New

| 0

±0
align="left" colspan="2"| Blank ballots

| 11,128

1.05style="color:green;"| +0.06

| bgcolor="#E9E9E9" colspan="2"|

colspan="7" bgcolor="#E9E9E9"|
style="font-weight:bold;"

| align="left" colspan="2"| Total

| 1,058,874

bgcolor="#E9E9E9" colspan="2"|

| 47

±0
colspan="7" bgcolor="#E9E9E9"|
align="left" colspan="2"| Valid votes

| 1,058,874

99.28style="color:green;"| +0.04

| bgcolor="#E9E9E9" colspan="2" rowspan="5"|

align="left" colspan="2"| Invalid votes

| 7,697

0.72style="color:red;"| –0.04
style="font-weight:bold;"

| align="left" colspan="2"| Votes cast / turnout

| 1,066,571

78.83style="color:green;"| +6.33
align="left" colspan="2"| Abstentions

| 286,387

21.17style="color:red;"| –6.33
style="font-weight:bold;"

| align="left" colspan="2"| Registered voters

| 1,352,958

bgcolor="#E9E9E9" colspan="2"|
colspan="7" bgcolor="#E9E9E9"|
align="left" colspan="7"| Sources{{cite web |url=http://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/documentos/CASTILLA_LA_MANCHA_1995_ResultadosyElectos.pdf |title=Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha election results, 28 May 1995 |date=16 June 1995 |language=es |website=www.juntaelectoralcentral.es |publisher=Electoral Commission of Castilla–La Mancha |access-date=29 September 2017}}{{cite web |url=https://www.cortesclm.es/web2/paginas/elecciones/eleccionIV.php |title=IV Legislature. Regional election, 28 May 1995 |language=es |website=www.cortesclm.es |publisher=Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha |access-date=29 September 2017}}{{cite web |url=http://www.historiaelectoral.com/acmancha.html |title=Elecciones a las Cortes de Castilla - La Mancha (1983 - 2019) |language=es |website=Historia Electoral.com |access-date=29 September 2017}}

{{bar box

|title=Popular vote

|titlebar=#ddd

|width=550px

|barwidth=500px

|bars=

{{bar percent|PSOE|{{party color|Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}|45.70}}

{{bar percent|PP|{{party color|People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}|44.30}}

{{bar percent|IU–ICAM|{{party color|United Left (Spain)}}|7.60}}

{{bar percent|Others|#777777|1.35}}

{{bar percent|Blank ballots|#DDDDDD|1.05}}

}}

{{bar box

|title=Seats

|titlebar=#ddd

|width=550px

|barwidth=500px

|bars=

{{bar percent|PSOE|{{party color|Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}|51.06}}

{{bar percent|PP|{{party color|People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}|46.81}}

{{bar percent|IU–ICAM|{{party color|United Left (Spain)}}|2.13}}

}}

=Distribution by constituency=

class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:right; line-height:20px;"
rowspan="3"| Constituency

! colspan="2" width="30px" class="unsortable"| PSOE

! colspan="2" width="30px" class="unsortable"| PP

! colspan="2" width="30px" class="unsortable"| IU–ICAM

colspan="2" style="background:{{party color|Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}"|

! colspan="2" style="background:{{party color|People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}"|

! colspan="2" style="background:{{party color|United Left (Spain)}}"|

data-sort-type="number"| %

! data-sort-type="number"| S

! data-sort-type="number"| %

! data-sort-type="number"| S

! data-sort-type="number"| %

! data-sort-type="number"| S

align="left"| Albacete

| style="background:{{party color|Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}; color:white;"| 44.5

| 5

| 43.2

| 4

| 10.3

| 1

align="left"| Ciudad Real

| style="background:{{party color|Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}; color:white;"| 47.2

| 6

| 43.0

| 5

| 7.7

| −

align="left"| Cuenca

| 45.7

| 4

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}; color:white;"| 47.5

| 4

| 4.7

| −

align="left"| Guadalajara

| 37.9

| 3

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}; color:white;"| 48.9

| 4

| 9.6

| −

align="left"| Toledo

| style="background:{{party color|Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}; color:white;"| 47.6

| 6

| 43.5

| 5

| 6.3

| −

style="background:#CDCDCD;"

| align="left"| Total

| style="background:{{party color|Socialist Party of Castilla–La Mancha}}; color:white;"| 45.7

| 24

| 44.3

| 22

| 7.6

| 1

colspan="7"|
style="text-align:left; font-weight:normal; background:#F9F9F9" colspan="7"| Sources

Aftermath

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center;"
colspan="3" align="center" bgcolor="#C0C0C0"| Investiture
José Bono (PSOE)
colspan="2" width="150px"| Ballot →

! 30 June 1995

colspan="2"| Required majority →

| 24 out of 47 {{tick|15}}

width="1px" style="background:green;"|

| align="left"| {{Collapsible list | title = Yes

| • PSOE (24)

}}

| {{Composition bar|24|47|green|width=125px}}

style="color:inherit;background:red;"|

| align="left"| {{Collapsible list | title = No

| • PP (22)

| • IU (1)

}}

| {{Composition bar|23|47|red|width=125px}}

style="color:inherit;background:gray;"|

| align="left"| Abstentions

| {{Composition bar|0|47|gray|width=125px}}

style="color:inherit;background:black;"|

| align="left"| Absentees

| {{Composition bar|0|47|black|width=125px}}

align="left" colspan="3"| Sources

References

;Opinion poll sources

{{reflist|group="p"}}

;Other

{{reflist}}

{{Castilla–La Mancha elections}}

{{Regional elections in Spain in the 1990s}}

Category:1995 in Castilla–La Mancha

Castilla-La Mancha

Category:Regional elections in Castilla–La Mancha

Category:May 1995 in Spain