2004 United States presidential election in New Mexico

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2004 United States presidential election in New Mexico

| country = New Mexico

| type = presidential

| ongoing = no

| previous_election = 2000 United States presidential election in New Mexico

| previous_year = 2000

| next_election = 2008 United States presidential election in New Mexico

| next_year = 2008

| election_date = November 2, 2004

| image_size = x200px

| image1 = George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg

| nominee1 = George W. Bush

| party1 = Republican Party (United States)

| home_state1 = Texas

| running_mate1 = Dick Cheney

| electoral_vote1 = 5

| popular_vote1 = 376,930

| percentage1 = 49.84%

| image2 = John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg

| nominee2 = John Kerry

| party2 = Democratic Party (United States)

| home_state2 = Massachusetts

| running_mate2 = John Edwards

| electoral_vote2 = 0

| popular_vote2 = 370,942

| percentage2 = 49.05%

| map_image = {{switcher |265px |County results |265px |Congressional district results |default=1}}

| map_caption =

Bush

Kerry

| title = President

| before_election = George W. Bush

| before_party = Republican Party (United States)

| after_election = George W. Bush

| after_party = Republican Party (United States)

| turnout = 68.4% (of registered voters)
55.1% (of voting age population)

}}

The 2004 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose five representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

New Mexico was won by incumbent Republican President George W. Bush by a 0.79% margin of victory. Bush took 49.84% of the vote, narrowly defeating Democratic Senator of Massachusetts John Kerry, who took 49.05%. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a swing state. New Mexico is a very diverse state, with 42% of the state Hispanic and another 42% of the electorate non-Hispanic white. Exit polling showed that incumbent George W. Bush performed better among Hispanic Americans in 2004 than in 2000. This may be one of the reasons why Bush won and swung the state from 2000, when Al Gore had narrowly won the state. New Mexico was one of the only three states which switched sides between 2000 and 2004 (Iowa also flipped from Gore to Bush, while New Hampshire flipped from Bush to Kerry). Bush also remains the only Republican since his father in 1988 to carry the state.

As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last time that the Republican nominee carried New Mexico and the last time the Republican won Los Alamos County and Sandoval County.

Caucuses

2004 New Mexico Democratic presidential caucuses

Campaign

=Predictions=

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW Members] DC Political Report {{dead link|date=July 2016 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}

class="wikitable"

!Source

!Ranking

D.C. Political Report

|{{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

Associated Press

|{{USRaceRating|Toss-up}}

CNN

|{{USRaceRating|Lean|R|Flip}}

Cook Political Report

|{{USRaceRating|Toss-up}}

Newsweek

|{{USRaceRating|Toss-up}}

New York Times

|{{USRaceRating|Toss-up}}

Rasmussen Reports

|{{USRaceRating|Toss-up}}

Research 2000

|{{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

Washington Post

|{{USRaceRating|Toss-up}}

Washington Times

|{{USRaceRating|Toss-up}}

Zogby International

|{{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

Washington Dispatch

|{{USRaceRating|Likely|R|Flip}}

=Polling=

Polls showed Kerry in the lead for most of the general election. However, Bush caught up in the last month. The last 3 polling average showed Bush leading with 48% to 46%, which meant that the undecided voters would decide the election.{{cite web|url=https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=35|publisher=US Election Atlas|title=2004 Presidential Election Polls. New Mexico Polls}}

=Fundraising=

Bush raised $869,407.{{cite web|url=http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04|title=George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President}} Kerry raised $1,289,134.{{cite web|url=http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04|title = John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President}}

=Advertising and visits=

Because of the closeness of the prior election, New Mexico was largely considered as a swing state. Over the general election, Bush visited the state 5 times and Kerry visited 8 times.{{cite web |url=http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/NM/ |title=America votes 2004: SHOWDOWN STATES: NEW MEXICO |publisher=CNN |date= |accessdate=2022-05-27}} Nearly $2 million were spent by both campaigns combined in television advertisements each week.{{cite news |url=http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ |title=America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys |publisher=CNN |date= |access-date=2022-05-27 |archive-date=2021-04-22 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210422073439/http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ |url-status=live }}

Analysis

Although Bill Richardson, the Democratic governor, was very popular, the state, which voted for Al Gore by 300 votes in 2000, chose George W. Bush in 2004, by 6,000 votes. The only county Bush won in 2004 that he didn't win in 2000 was Colfax County. Half of the population in New Mexico is Hispanic, and Bush was able to appeal to over 40% of the Hispanic vote.

Results

{{Election box begin |title=2004 United States presidential election in New Mexico}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link

|party = Republican Party (United States)

|candidate = {{ubl|George W. Bush (incumbent)|Dick Cheney (incumbent)}}

|votes = 376,930

|percentage = 49.84%

|change = +1.99