2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

| country = Wisconsin

| type = presidential

| ongoing = no

| previous_election = 2000 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

| previous_year = 2000

| turnout = 72.9% ({{increase}} 5.9%){{cite web |title=Wisconsin Voter Turnout Statistics |url=https://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/statistics/turnout |website=Wisconsin Election Commission |publisher=Wisconsin Election Commission |access-date=25 September 2020}}

| next_election = 2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

| next_year = 2008

| election_date = November 2, 2004

| image_size = x200px

| image1 = John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg

| nominee1 = John Kerry

| party1 = Democratic Party (United States)

| home_state1 = Massachusetts

| running_mate1 = John Edwards

| electoral_vote1 = 10

| popular_vote1 = 1,489,504

| percentage1 = 49.70%

| image2 = George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg

| nominee2 = George W. Bush

| party2 = Republican Party (United States)

| home_state2 = Texas

| running_mate2 = Dick Cheney

| electoral_vote2 = 0

| popular_vote2 = 1,478,120

| percentage2 = 49.32%

| map_image = {{Switcher

| 300px

| County results

| 300px

| Congressional district results

| 300px

| Precinct results

}}

| map_caption = {{col-begin}}

Kerry

Bush

Tie/No Data

| title = President

| before_election = George W. Bush

| before_party = Republican Party (United States)

| after_election = George W. Bush

| after_party = Republican Party (United States)

}}

The 2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Wisconsin was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 0.38% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since Ronald Reagan in 1984, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a toss-up, or a crucial swing state, and faced similar political scrutiny to neighboring Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa. On election day, Kerry barely carried the state over President George W. Bush. The results in Wisconsin were nearly identical to the results from four years earlier, when Al Gore squeaked by Bush, and the 2020 presidential election when Joe Biden had a similarly narrow victory in Wisconsin against Donald Trump.

As of 2024, this is the most recent election to date in which Wisconsin would vote for the losing candidate, thus the state is tied with Michigan and Pennsylvania for the longest bellwether streak in the nation. This was also only the third time since 1960 (after 2000 and 1988) that it would vote for the losing candidate. Bush is to date the only presidential candidate to win two terms in office without carrying Wisconsin at least once, as well as the most recent Republican to win without the state.

Primaries

Campaign

=Predictions=

There were 12 news organizations that made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.{{cite web |title=D.C.'s Political Report's 2004 Presidential Ratings |url=http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101121204958/http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm |access-date=8 July 2021|archive-date=2010-11-21 }}

class="wikitable"

!Source

!Ranking

D.C. Political Report

|{{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}

Associated Press

|{{USRaceRating|Toss-up}}

CNN

|{{USRaceRating|Likely|R|Flip

}

|Cook Political Report

|{{USRaceRating|Toss-up}}

|Newsweek

|{{USRaceRating|Toss-up}}

|New York Times

|{{USRaceRating|Toss-up}}

|Rasmussen Reports

|{{USRaceRating|Toss-up}}

|Research 2000

|{{USRaceRating|Toss-up}}

|Washington Post

|{{USRaceRating|Toss-up}}

|Washington Times

|{{USRaceRating|Toss-up}}

|Zogby International

|{{USRaceRating|Likely|D}}

|Washington Dispatch

|{{USRaceRating|Likely|R|Flip|}}

=Polling=

Pre-election polling had Bush and Kerry winning polls, with neither candidate grasping a strong lead. The last 3 poll averages showed Bush leading 49% to 46%.{{cite web |title=2004 Presidential Election Polls |url=https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=55 |access-date=8 July 2021}}

=Fundraising=

Bush raised $1,993,040.[http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04 George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President] Kerry raised $1,130,602.[http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04 John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President]

=Advertising and visits=

Bush visited the state 12 times. Kerry visited the state 14 times.[http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/ CNN.com Specials] A total of between $1.3 million to $3.6 million was spent each week.[http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ CNN.com Specials]

Analysis

Wisconsin has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in the last four elections before the fifth time in 2004. The urban centers of Milwaukee and Madison tend to vote strongly Democratic. The suburbs of those cities are politically diverse but tend to vote Republican. Counties in the western part of the state tend to be liberal, a tradition passed down from Scandinavian immigrants. The rural areas in the northern and eastern part of the state are the most solidly Republican areas in Wisconsin.{{Cite web |last=Hamilton |first=Lawrence |date=September 2006 |title=Rural Voting in the 2004 Election |url=https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/71341058.pdf |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240601004028/https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/71341058.pdf |archive-date=1 June 2024 |access-date=1 June 2024 |website=CORE}}

The CNN exit polls showed a dead heat between the two. However, the deciding factor for Kerry's victory was union members who voted for him with 62%, while non-members (83% of the population) voted for Bush with just 52% of the vote.[http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/WI/P/00/epolls.0.html CNN.com Election 2004]

Results

class="wikitable" style="font-size: 95%;"
colspan="6" \| 2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
colspan="2" style="width: 15em" \|Party ! style="width: 17em" \|Candidate ! style="width: 5em" \|Votes ! style="width: 7em" \|Percentage ! style="width: 5em" \|Electoral votes
style="background:#33f; width:3px;"\| \| style="width: 130px" \| Democratic \| John Forbes Kerry \| style="text-align:right;"\| 1,489,504 \| style="text-align:right;"\| 49.70% \| style="text-align:right;"\| 10
style="background:#f33; width:3px;"\| \| style="width: 130px" \| Republican \| George Walker Bush (Incumbent) \| style="text-align:right;"\| 1,478,120 \| style="text-align:right;"\| 49.32% \| style="text-align:right;"\| 0
style="background:#ddd; width:3px;"\| \| style="width: 130px" \| Independent \| Ralph Nader \| style="text-align:right;"\| 16,390 \| style="text-align:right;"\| 0.55% \| style="text-align:right;"\| 0
style="background:#fc0; width:3px;"\| \| style="width: 130px" \| Libertarian \| Michael Badnarik \| style="text-align:right;"\| 6,464 \| style="text-align:right;"\| 0.22% \| style="text-align:right;"\| 0
style="background:#ddd; width:3px;"\| \| style="width: 130px" \| Green \| David Cobb \| style="text-align:right;"\| 2,661 \| style="text-align:right;"\| 0.09% \| style="text-align:right;"\| 0
style="background:#ddd; width:3px;"\| \| style="width: 130px" \| Independent \| Walt Brown \| style="text-align:right;"\| 471 \| style="text-align:right;"\| 0.02% \| style="text-align:right;"\| 0
style="background:#ddd; width:3px;"\| \| style="width: 130px" \| Independent \| Roger Calero \| style="text-align:right;"\| 411 \| style="text-align:right;"\| 0.01% \| style="text-align:right;"\| 0
style="background:#ddd; width:3px;"\| \| colspan="2" \| Write Ins \| style="text-align:right;"\| 2,986 \| style="text-align:right;"\| 0.10% \| style="text-align:right;"\| 0
style="background:#eee; text-align:right;" \| colspan="3"\| Totals	2,997,007	100.00%	10
style="background:#eee; text-align:right;" \| colspan="5"\| Voter turnout (Voting age population)	72.4%

class="wikitable" style="font-size: 95%;"

colspan="6" | 2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

colspan="2" style="width: 15em" |Party

! style="width: 17em" |Candidate

! style="width: 5em" |Votes

! style="width: 7em" |Percentage

! style="width: 5em" |Electoral votes

style="background:#33f; width:3px;"|

| style="width: 130px" | Democratic

| John Forbes Kerry

| style="text-align:right;"| 1,489,504

| style="text-align:right;"| 49.70%

| style="text-align:right;"| 10

style="background:#f33; width:3px;"|

| style="width: 130px" | Republican

| George Walker Bush (Incumbent)

| style="text-align:right;"| 1,478,120

| style="text-align:right;"| 49.32%