2010 Iowa gubernatorial election

{{Short description|none}}

{{Use American English|date=January 2025}}

{{Use mdy dates|date=September 2023}}

{{Infobox election

|election_name = 2010 Iowa gubernatorial election

|country = Iowa

|flag_image = Flag of Iowa (xrmap collection).svg

|type = presidential

|ongoing = Yes

|previous_election = 2006 Iowa gubernatorial election

|previous_year = 2006

|next_election = 2014 Iowa gubernatorial election

|next_year = 2014

|election_date = November 2, 2010

| image_size = x150px

|image1 = File:Terry Branstad by Gage Skidmore.jpg

|nominee1 = Terry Branstad

|running_mate1 = Kim Reynolds

|party1 = Republican Party (United States)

|popular_vote1 = 592,494

|percentage1 = 52.81%

|image2 = File:Gov Chet Culver.jpg

|nominee2 = Chet Culver

|running_mate2 = Patty Judge

|party2 = Democratic Party (United States)

|popular_vote2 = 484,798

|percentage2 = 43.21%

|map_image = {{switcher |240px |County results |240px |Congressional district results}}

|map_caption = Branstad: {{legend0|#ffb2b2|40–50%}} {{legend0|#e27f7f|50–60%}} {{legend0|#d75d5d|60–70%}} {{legend0|#d72f30|70–80%}} {{legend0|#c21b18|80–90%}}
Culver: {{legend0|#a5b0ff|40–50%}} {{legend0|#7996e2|50–60%}} {{legend0|#6674de|60–70%}}

|title = Governor

|before_election = Chet Culver

|before_party = Democratic Party (United States)

|after_election = Terry Branstad

|after_party = Republican Party (United States)}}

{{ElectionsIA}}

The 2010 Iowa gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor, to serve a four-year term beginning on January 14, 2011. In Iowa, the governor and lieutenant governor are elected on the same ballot. Along with the election in Ohio, this was one of the two gubernatorial elections where the incumbent lost reelection.

The two major party candidates were first-term incumbent governor Chet Culver, a Democrat, who ran for re-election with first-term incumbent lieutenant governor Patty Judge, and former four-term governor Terry Branstad, who won a three-way primary for the Republican nomination and ran with State Senator Kim Reynolds.

Branstad defeated Culver in the general election, becoming the first challenger to unseat an incumbent Iowa governor since Harold Hughes in 1962.{{Cite news|url=https://wcfcourier.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/terry-branstad-ready-to-lead-the-charge-as-iowa-s/article_ab3d3d26-e6ff-11df-a491-001cc4c03286.html|title=Terry Branstad 'ready to lead the charge' as Iowa's governor|first=Rod |last=Boshart|work=The Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier}}

Democratic primary

=Candidates=

  • Chet Culver, incumbent Governor

=Results=

{{Election box begin no change

| title = Democratic primary results{{cite web |url=http://www.sos.state.ia.us/elections/results/2010PrimaryResults.html |title=Iowa Governor Primary Results |work=Iowa Secretary of State |date=June 8, 2010 |access-date=June 9, 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110929105122/http://www.sos.state.ia.us/elections/results/2010PrimaryResults.html |archive-date=September 29, 2011 |url-status=dead }}

}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Chet Culver (incumbent)

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| votes = 56,293

| percentage = 95.69

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Write-ins

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| votes = 2,534

| percentage = 4.31

}}

{{Election box total no change

| votes = 58,827

| percentage = 100

}}

{{Election box end}}

Republican primary

=Candidates=

==On ballot==

As listed by the Iowa Secretary of State's office:{{cite web |title=Candidate Listing by Office, June 8, 2010 Primary Election |url=http://www.sos.state.ia.us/pdfs/elections/2010/candlistprim.pdf |publisher=Iowa Secretary of State |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100401021103/http://www.sos.state.ia.us/pdfs/elections/2010/candlistprim.pdf |archive-date=April 1, 2010 |url-status=dead}}

  • Terry Branstad, former Governor{{cite web |url=http://www.governorbranstad2010.com/gov-terry-branstad-announces-2010-run-for-governor |title=Gov. Terry Branstad announces 2010 run for governor | Branstad – Reynolds 2010 |publisher=Governorbranstad2010.com |date=2010-01-19 |access-date=2010-08-21 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100819194044/http://governorbranstad2010.com/gov-terry-branstad-announces-2010-run-for-governor/ |archive-date=2010-08-19 |url-status=dead }}
  • Rod Roberts, State Representative{{cite web | url = http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20090721/NEWS05/90721017/1007 | title = Roberts claims GOP's fresh face in governor bid | publisher = Des Moines Register }}{{Dead link|date=June 2023 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}
  • Bob Vander Plaats, businessman and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2006

==Withdrew==

  • State Senator Paul McKinley withdrew after Terry Branstad formed an exploratory committee{{cite web |url=http://www.mckinleyforiowa.com/Paul%20McKinley/2009/11/06/mckinley-withdraws-from-gubernatorial-race-remains-focused-on-winning-back-iowa-senate-majority |title=Paul McKinley for Iowa |publisher=Mckinleyforiowa.com |access-date=2010-08-21 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110714061011/http://www.mckinleyforiowa.com/Paul%20McKinley/2009/11/06/mckinley-withdraws-from-gubernatorial-race-remains-focused-on-winning-back-iowa-senate-majority |archive-date=2011-07-14 |url-status=dead }}
  • Cedar Rapids businessman Christian Fong suspended his campaign due to a lack of campaign finances{{cite web |url=http://www.christianfong.com/news/article/gops-fong-withdraws-will-stay-active/ |title=GOP's Fong withdraws, will stay active |publisher=Christian Fong |date=2009-12-02 |access-date=2010-08-21 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110708150838/http://www.christianfong.com/news/article/gops-fong-withdraws-will-stay-active/ |archive-date=2011-07-08 |url-status=dead }}
  • Minority Leader of the Iowa House of Representatives Christopher Rants withdrew from the race due to lack of campaign funds{{cite web|url=http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/app/blogs/politically_speaking/?p=2553 |title=Politically Speaking |publisher=Sioux City Journal |date=2010-02-18 |access-date=2010-08-21}}
  • State Senator Jerry Behn withdrew from the race and endorsed Terry Branstad{{cite web |url=http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2009/12/22/behn-out-in-gop-governor-race-backs-branstad/ |title=Behn out of GOP governor race, backs Branstad | Des Moines Register Staff Blogs |publisher=Blogs.desmoinesregister.com |date=2009-12-22 |access-date=2010-08-21 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://archive.today/20110709015753/http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2009/12/22/behn-out-in-gop-governor-race-backs-branstad/ |archive-date=2011-07-09 }}

=Polling=

class="wikitable"
valign=bottom

! style="width:225px;"| Poll source

! style="width:130px;"| Dates administered

! style="width:100px;"| Terry
Branstad

! style="width:100px;"| Bob
Vander Plaats

! style="width:100px;"| Rod
Roberts

Selzer & Co. Inc of Des Moines[http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20100607/NEWS09/6070323/-1/GETPUBLISHED03SCRIPTS/Iowa-Poll-Branstad-camp-covers-most-sectors-of-GOP/ Selzer & Co. Inc of Des Moines] {{Webarchive|url=https://archive.today/20130121114556/http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20100607/NEWS09/6070323/-1/GETPUBLISHED03SCRIPTS/Iowa-Poll-Branstad-camp-covers-most-sectors-of-GOP/ |date=2013-01-21 }}

| align=center| June 1–3, 2010

| align=center {{party shading/Republican}}| 57%

| align=center| 29%

| align=center| 8%

Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IA_601.pdf Public Policy Polling]

| align=center| May 25–27, 2010

| align=center {{party shading/Republican}}| 46%

| align=center| 31%

| align=center| 13%

=Results=

[[File:Iowa gubernatorial Republican primary, 2010.svg|thumb|240px|Results by county:

{{collapsible list

| title = {{legend|#E27F7F|Branstad}}

|{{legend|#FFB2B2|40–50%}}

|{{legend|#E27F7F|50–60%}}

|{{legend|#D75D5D|60–70%}}

|{{legend|#D72F30|70–80%}}

}}

{{collapsible list

| title = {{legend|#FF9A50|Plaats}}

|{{legend|#ffb380|40–50%}}

|{{legend|#ff9955|50–60%}}

|{{legend|#ff7f2a|60–70%}}

|{{legend|#D69850|70–80%}}

}}

{{collapsible list

| title = {{legend|#37c837|Roberts}}

|{{legend|#2ca02c|70–80%}}

}}

]]

{{Election box begin no change

| title = Republican primary results

}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Terry Branstad

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 114,450

| percentage = 50.30

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Bob Vander Plaats

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 93,058

| percentage = 40.90

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Rod Roberts

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 19,896

| percentage = 8.74

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Write-ins

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 121

| percentage = 0.05

}}

{{Election box total no change

| votes = 227,525

| percentage = 100

}}

{{Election box end}}

General election

=Candidates=

  • Chet Culver (D), incumbent governor; running with incumbent lieutenant governor Patty Judge.
  • Gregory James Hughes (I), running with Robin Prior-Calef.{{Cite web|url=http://www.mvlsun.com/article.php?viewID=7386|title=Polls open Tuesday for 2010 midterm general election - Mount Vernon - Lisbon Sun - www.mtvernonlisbonsun.com|website=www.mvlsun.com}}
  • Terry Branstad (R), former four-term governor; running with State Senator Kim Reynolds.
  • Eric Cooper (L), professor at Iowa State University; running with judicial administrator Nick Weltha.{{cite web|url=http://www.radioiowa.com/2010/04/26/libertarians-nominate-statewide-candidates-for-10/|title=Libertarians nominate statewide candidates for '10|last=Henderson|first=O. Kay|date=April 26, 2010|access-date=July 16, 2010|work=RadioIowa}}
  • Jonathan Narcisse (Iowa Party), former member of the Des Moines school board; running with truck driver Rick Marlar. Narcisse is a Democrat and Marlar is a Republican.{{cite web|url=http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2010/07/01/narcisse-im-an-independent-candidate-for-gov/|title=Narcisse: I'm an independent candidate for gov|last=Clayworth|first=Jason|date=July 1, 2010|access-date=July 16, 2010|work=Des Moines Register}} Narcisse's campaign and that of Senate District 45 candidate Douglas William Phillips were not affiliated, though both appeared on the ballot under the "Iowa Party" name.{{cite web|url=http://jdeeth.blogspot.com/2010/08/whats-iowa-party.html|title=What's an Iowa Party? |last=Deeth|first=John|date=August 26, 2010|access-date=April 28, 2014}}{{Cite web|url=https://qctimes.com/news/local/government-and-politics/elections/fifth-candidate-files-for-iowa-governor-s-race/article_a2137cc2-a728-11df-83cf-001cc4c03286.amp.html|title=Fifth candidate files for Iowa governor's race | Elections | qctimes.com|website=qctimes.com}}
  • David Rosenfeld (SWP), running with Helen Meyers.{{Cite web|url=https://wcfcourier.com/news/local/socialist-party-seeks-state-office/article_616700c3-75ed-5c8e-9ea3-18f43c7fcbc1.html|title=Socialist party seeks state office|first=Rod|last=Boshart|website=Waterloo Cedar Falls Courier}}

=Predictions=

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
Source

! Ranking

! As of

Cook Political Report{{cite web|url=http://cookpolitical.com/charts/governors/raceratings_2010-10-14_12-35-09.php |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101028141343/http://cookpolitical.com/charts/governors/raceratings_2010-10-14_12-35-09.php |url-status=dead |archive-date=October 28, 2010 |title=2010 Governors Race Ratings |publisher=Cook Political Report |access-date=October 28, 2010}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R|Flip}}

| October 14, 2010

Rothenberg{{cite web|url=http://www.insideelections.com/ratings/governor/2010-gubernatorial-ratings-october-28-2010 |title=Governor Ratings |publisher=Rothenberg Political Report |access-date=October 28, 2010}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R|Flip}}

| October 28, 2010

RealClearPolitics{{cite web|url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/2010_elections_governor_map.html |title=2010 Governor Races |publisher=RealClearPolitics |access-date=October 28, 2010}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R|Flip}}

| November 1, 2010

Sabato's Crystal Ball{{cite web|url=http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2010102801/ |title=THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS |publisher=Sabato's Crystal Ball |access-date=October 28, 2010}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R|Flip}}

| October 28, 2010

CQ Politics{{cite web|url=http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-governor |title=Race Ratings Chart: Governor |publisher=CQ Politics |access-date=October 28, 2010 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101005231611/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-governor |archive-date=October 5, 2010 }}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

| October 28, 2010

=Polling=

class="wikitable"
valign=bottom

! style="width:185px;"| Poll source

! style="width:195px;"| Dates administered

! style="width:100px;"| Chet
Culver (D)

! style="width:100px;"| Terry
Branstad (R)

Rasmussen Reports[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/iowa/election_2010_iowa_governor Rasmussen Reports]

| align=center| September 23, 2010

| align=center| 37%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 55%

Rasmussen Reports[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/iowa/toplines/toplines_iowa_governor_august_5_2010/ Rasmussen Reports]

| align=center| August 5, 2010

| align=center| 36%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 52%

Rasmussen Reports[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/iowa/toplines/toplines_iowa_governor_june_14_2010/ Rasmussen Reports]

| align=center| June 14, 2010

| align=center| 31%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 57%

Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IA_602.pdf Public Policy Polling]

| align=center| May 25–27, 2010

| align=center| 37%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 52%

KCCI-TV[https://web.archive.org/web/20111206113345/http://www.kcci.com/politics/23473645/detail.html KCCI-TV]

| align=center| May 3–5, 2010

| align=center| 41%

| align=center {{party shading/Republican}}| 48%

Rasmussen Reports[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/iowa/election_2010_iowa_governor Rasmussen Reports]

| align=center| April 29, 2010

| align=center| 38%

| align=center {{party shading/Republican}}| 53%

Rasmussen Reports[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/iowa/toplines/toplines_2010_iowa_governor_march_17_2010 Rasmussen Reports]

| align=center| March 17, 2010

| align=center| 36%

| align=center {{party shading/Republican}}| 52%

Rasmussen Reports[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/iowa/toplines/toplines_2010_iowa_governor_election_february_18_2010/ Rasmussen Reports]

| align=center| February 18, 2010

| align=center| 37%

| align=center {{party shading/Republican}}| 53%

KCCI-TV[https://web.archive.org/web/20110605222139/http://www.kcci.com/news/22602994/detail.html KCCI-TV]

| align=center| February 15–17, 2010

| align=center| 38%

| align=center {{party shading/Republican}}| 54%

Selzer & Co. of Des Moines[http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20100214/NEWS09/2140347/Iowa-Poll-Culver-rating-falls-even-among-base/ Selzer & Co. of Des Moines] {{Webarchive|url=https://archive.today/20130121134630/http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20100214/NEWS09/2140347/Iowa-Poll-Culver-rating-falls-even-among-base/ |date=2013-01-21 }}

| align=center| January 31 – February 3, 2010

| align=center| 33%

| align=center {{party shading/Republican}}| 53%

Selzer & Co. of Des Moines[http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20091114/NEWS09/911150335/Iowa-Poll-Low-rating-for-Culver-reveals-vulnerability&theme=IOWA_POLL/ Selzer & Co. of Des Moines] {{Webarchive|url=https://archive.today/20130121104024/http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20091114/NEWS09/911150335/Iowa-Poll-Low-rating-for-Culver-reveals-vulnerability&theme=IOWA_POLL/ |date=2013-01-21 }}

| align=center| November 8–11, 2009

| align=center| 33%

| align=center {{party shading/Republican}}| 57%

Daily Kos/Research 2000[http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/10/14/IA/398 Daily Kos/Research 2000]

| align=center| October 12–14, 2009

| align=center| 43%

| align=center {{party shading/Republican}}| 48%

Rasmussen Reports[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/iowa/toplines/toplines_iowa_governor_s_race_september_22_2009/ Rasmussen Reports]

| align=center| September 22, 2009

| align=center| 34%

| align=center {{Party shading/Republican}}| 54%

Iowa First Foundation[http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2009/08/21/republican-survey-says-branstad-the-strongest-culver-challenger/ Iowa First Foundation]

| align=center| July 23–July 26, 2009

| align=center| 34%

| align=center {{Party shading/Republican}}| 53%

Concordia Group LLC[https://web.archive.org/web/20090917084613/http://theiowarepublican.com/home/2009/07/17/former-governor-branstad-defeats-culver-53-to-37-in-head-to-head-matchup/ Concordia Group LLC]

| align=center| July 2009

| align=center| 37%

| align=center {{Party shading/Republican}}| 53%

=Results=

{{Election box begin | title=2010 Iowa gubernatorial election{{cite web|url=https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2010/govorr.pdf|title=2010 Iowa gubernatorial election results|website=SOS.Iowa.gov|access-date=November 24, 2019}}}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link|

|party = Republican Party (United States)

|candidate = Terry Branstad

|votes = 592,494

|percentage = 52.81%

|change = +8.43%

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link|

|party = Democratic Party (United States)

|candidate = Chet Culver (incumbent)

|votes = 484,798

|percentage = 43.21%

|change = -10.81%

}}

{{Election box candidate|

|party = Iowa Party

|candidate = Jonathan Narcisse

|votes = 20,859

|percentage = 1.86%

|change =n/a

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link|

|party = Libertarian Party (United States)

|candidate = Eric Cooper

|votes = 14,398

|percentage = 1.28%

|change = +0.74%

}}

{{Election box candidate|

|party = Independent

|candidate = Gregory Hughes

|votes = 3,884

|percentage = 0.35%

|change = n/a

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link|

|party = Socialist Workers Party (United States)

|candidate = David Rosenfeld

|votes = 2,757

|percentage = 0.25%

|change = +0.06%

}}

{{Election box write-in with party link|

|votes = 2,823

|percentage = 0.25%

|change = n/a

}}

{{Election box total|

|votes = 1,122,013

|percentage = 100.00%

|change = n/a

}}

{{Election box gain with party link no swing|

|winner = Republican Party (United States)

|loser = Democratic Party (United States)

}}

{{Election box end}}

==Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican==

=By congressional district=

Branstad won four of five congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=409673

class=wikitable

! District

! Culver

! Branstad

! Representative

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Iowa|1|1st}}

| 47%

| 50%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Bruce Braley

align=center

! {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Iowa|2|2nd}}

| 50%

| 46%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Dave Loebsack

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Iowa|3|3rd}}

| 44%

| 51%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Leonard Boswell

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Iowa|4|4th}}

| 42%

| 54%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Tom Latham

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Iowa|5|5th}}

| 32%

| 65%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Steve King

References

{{Reflist}}