2010 RF12

{{DISPLAYTITLE:{{mp|2010 RF|12}}}}

{{Infobox planet

| minorplanet = yes

| name = {{mp|2010 RF|12}}

| background = #FFC2E0

| image =

| image_size =

| caption =

| discovery_ref =

| discoverer = Mount Lemmon Srvy.

| discovery_site = Mount Lemmon Obs.

| discovered = 5 September 2010

| mpc_name = {{mp|2010 RF|12}}

| alt_names =

| mp_category = NEO{{·}}Apollo

| orbit_ref =

| epoch = 2025-May-05 (JD 2460800.5)

| uncertainty = 0 {{small|(MPC)}} 2 {{small|(JPL)}}

| observation_arc = 11.98 years

| aphelion = 1.261 AU

| perihelion = 0.86155 AU

| time_periastron = 2025-Jan-29

| semimajor = 1.0615 AU

| eccentricity = 0.18834

| period = 1.094 yr (399.441 d)

| mean_anomaly = 85.8°

| mean_motion = {{Deg2DMS|0.9013|sup=ms}} / day

| inclination = 0.88264°

| asc_node = 163.69°

| arg_peri = 267.43°

| moid = {{Convert|0.00072|AU|e3km LD|abbr=unit|lk=on}}

| mean_diameter = {{val|7|ul=m}}
6–12 meters (CNEOS)

| rotation =

| spectral_type =

| abs_magnitude = 28.4

}}

{{mp|2010 RF|12}} is a very small asteroid, classified as near-Earth object of the Apollo group, that passed between Earth and the Moon on 8 September 2010, at 21:12 UTC, approaching Earth within {{convert|79000|km|mi}} above Antarctica. The asteroid was discovered by the Mount Lemmon Survey near Tucson, Arizona on 5 September 2010 along with {{mpl|2010 RX|30}}. Based on a short 7-day observation arc from that apparation, it was listed for 12 years on the Sentry Risk Table as the asteroid with the greatest known probability (5%) of impacting Earth.Many small and harmless asteroids (less than ~10 meters in diameter) impact Earth every year but very few are discovered and predicted, see Asteroid impact prediction. {{mp|2010 RF|12}} was rediscovered in August 2022, and now has a 12-year observation arc and a much better known orbit. As of the December 2022 solution which accounts for nongravitational forces, there is a 1-in-10 chance of an Earth impact on 5 September 2095.

class="wikitable" style="font-size: 0.9em;"

|+Nominal Earth Approach on 6 September 2095 with a 12-year observation arc

! Date

!class=unsortable| Impact
probability

! JPL Horizons
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)

! uncertainty
region
(3-sigma)

2095-09-06 00:06 ± 00:20

1:10

±180 thousand km

Description

NASA's Near Earth Program estimates its size to be {{convert|7|m|ft|abbr=off|sp=us}} in diameter with a mass of around 500 tonnes. {{mp|2010 RF|12}} will make many more close approaches to Earth. Around 6 September 2095 it will pass {{val|52000|180000|u=km}} from Earth. An asteroid roughly 7-meters in diameter impacting Earth would cause very little danger of harm, but a rather impressive fireball is expected (estimated in the risk table as nearly 9 KT of energy release) as the rock airbursts in the upper atmosphere. Pebble sized fragments would likely fall to the ground at terminal velocity.[http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/18/40/2493218.pdf How a Near-Earth Object Impact Might Affect Society, 9 January 2003, Clark R. Chapman, SwRI, Boulder CO USA] The power of the airburst would be somewhere between the 2–4 m Sutter's Mill meteorite and the 17 m Chelyabinsk meteor (which had 440 KT equivalent energy). The approach in 2096 is poorly known because it is dependent on the September 2095 Earth approach.

class="wikitable" style="font-size: 0.9em;"

|+Virtual impactors with a 12-year observation arc

! Date

!class=unsortable| Impact
probability
(1 in)

! JPL Horizons
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)

! NEODyS
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)

! MPC
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)

! Find_Orb
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)

! uncertainty
region
(3-sigma)

2095-09-05 23:46

±180 thousand km

2096-09-04 21:50

22000

±414 million km

On 17 February 2059 the asteroid will pass within 3.5 million km from Earth and reach about apparent magnitude 22.6 by late February. On 10 September 1915 it passed {{val|463000|30000|u=km}} from Earth.

Notes

References

{{reflist|refs=

{{cite web

|title = MPEC 2010-R41 : 2010 RF12

|publisher = IAU Minor Planet Center

|date = 2010-09-05

|url = http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K10/K10R41.html

|access-date = 2014-04-17}} (K10R12F)

{{cite web

|title=MPEC 2022-S77 : 2010 RF12

|publisher=IAU Minor Planet Center

|date=2022-09-19

|url=https://minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K22/K22S77.html

|accessdate=2022-09-19}}

{{cite web

|title = JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2010 RF12)

|type = 2022-08-24 last obs.

|publisher = Jet Propulsion Laboratory

|url = https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2010RF12&view=OPC

|archive-url = https://archive.today/20221223224337/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html%23/?sstr=2010RF12&view=OPC

|archive-date= 2022-12-23

|url-status = live

|access-date = 2022-12-23}}

{{cite web

|title = 2010 RF12

|work = Minor Planet Center$

|date = 8 September 2010

|url = https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/db_search/show_object?object_id=2010+RF12

|access-date = 21 January 2020}}

{{cite web

|title = Second Asteroid to Buzz Earth Later Today

|work = National Geographic

|date = 8 September 2010

|url = http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/09/100908-asteroids-earth-nasa-catalina-sky-survey-science-space/

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20100911072645/http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/09/100908-asteroids-earth-nasa-catalina-sky-survey-science-space

|url-status = dead

|archive-date = 11 September 2010

|access-date = 21 January 2020}}

{{cite web

|title = Harvard scientists keep an eye on wayward asteroids

|work = Boston Globe Media Partners

|date = 8 September 2010

|url = http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/09/harvard_scienti_1.html

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20100909142420/http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/09/harvard_scienti_1.html

|archive-date= 9 September 2010

|access-date = 21 January 2020}}

{{cite web

|title = Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2010 RF12

|publisher = NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office

|url = https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2010%20RF12

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20170122151206/http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2010rf12.html#?des=2010%20RF12

|archive-date = 22 January 2017

|url-status = live

|access-date = 2022-12-23}}

{{cite web

|title = Sentry Risk Table

|publisher = NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office

|url = https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20100911052418/http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

|archive-date = 11 September 2010

|url-status = live

|access-date = 2022-12-23}}

{{cite web

|title=Horizons Batch for 2095-09-05 23:46 Virtual Impactor Time

|publisher=JPL Horizons

|url=https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272095-09-05%2023:46%27&STOP_TIME=%272095-09-06%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221223231926/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272095-09-05%2023:46%27&STOP_TIME=%272095-09-06%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27

|archive-date=2022-12-23

|url-status=live

|accessdate=2022-06-12}} RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#25/Soln.date: 2022-Dec-20 generates RNG_3sigma = {{val|177649}} for 2095-Sep-05 23:46.)

{{cite web

|title=Horizons Batch for 2095-09-06 00:06 Earth Approach

|publisher=JPL Horizons

|url=https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272095-09-06%2000:06%27&STOP_TIME=%272095-09-07%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221223232436/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272095-09-06%2000:06%27&STOP_TIME=%272095-09-07%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27

|archive-date=2022-12-23

|url-status=live

|accessdate=2022-12-23}} RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#25/Soln.date: 2022-Dec-20 generates RNG_3sigma = {{val|180405}} for 2095-Sep-06 00:06.)

{{cite web

|title=Horizons Batch for 2096-09-04 21:50 Virtual Impactor Time

|publisher=JPL Horizons

|url=https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272096-09-04%2021:50%27&STOP_TIME=%272096-09-05%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220707092915/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272096-09-04+21%3A50%27&STOP_TIME=%272096-09-05%27&STEP_SIZE=%272+days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720%2C39%27

|archive-date=2022-07-07

|url-status=live

|accessdate=2022-07-07}}

{{cite web

|title=Find_Orb for 2095-09-06

|publisher=Project Pluto

|url=https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=2010+RF12&year=2095-09-06&n_steps=1&stepsize=1

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220706182711/https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=2010+RF12&year=2095-09-06&n_steps=1&stepsize=1

|archive-date=2022-07-06

|url-status=live

|accessdate=2022-07-06}}

{{cite web

|title=Find_Orb for 2096-09-05

|publisher=Project Pluto

|url=https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=2010+RF12&year=2096-09-05&n_steps=1&stepsize=1

|archive-url=https://archive.today/20221223230808/https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=2010+RF12&year=2096-09-05&n_steps=1&stepsize=1

|archive-date=2022-12-23

|url-status=live

|accessdate=2022-12-23}}

{{cite web

|title = 2010RF12 Ephemerides for 5−6 September 2095

|publisher = NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site)

|url = https://newton.spacedys.com//neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2010RF12&oc=500&y0=2095&m0=9&d0=5&h0=12&mi0=0&y1=2095&m1=9&d1=6&h1=12&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=hours

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20220706185615/https://newton.spacedys.com//neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2010RF12&oc=500&y0=2095&m0=9&d0=5&h0=12&mi0=0&y1=2095&m1=9&d1=6&h1=12&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=hours

|archive-date= 2022-07-06

|url-status = live

|access-date = 21 January 2020}} ([https://newton.spacedys.com//neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.8&n=2010RF12 NEODyS Close Approach Table)])

{{cite web

|title = 2010RF12 Ephemerides for 4−5 September 2096

|publisher = NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site)

|url = https://newton.spacedys.com//neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2010RF12&oc=500&y0=2096&m0=9&d0=4&h0=12&mi0=0&y1=2096&m1=9&d1=5&h1=12&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=hours

|archive-url = https://archive.today/20221223092947/https://newton.spacedys.com//neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2010RF12&oc=500&y0=2096&m0=9&d0=4&h0=12&mi0=0&y1=2096&m1=9&d1=5&h1=12&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=hours

|archive-date= 2022-12-23

|url-status = live

|access-date = 23 December 2022}}

{{cite web

|title = Five Years after the Chelyabinsk Meteor: NASA Leads Efforts in Planetary Defense

|publisher = NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office

|url = https://www.nasa.gov/feature/five-years-after-the-chelyabinsk-meteor-nasa-leads-efforts-in-planetary-defense

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20220102014840/https://www.nasa.gov/feature/five-years-after-the-chelyabinsk-meteor-nasa-leads-efforts-in-planetary-defense/

|archive-date = 2 January 2022

|url-status=live

|access-date = 2022-01-19}}

}}

External links

[https://twitter.com/Piero_Sicoli/status/1566855849716453376 Risk corridor over Southern Hemisphere]
[https://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2010/0908/2010-RF12-A-second-asteroid-will-buzz-the-Earth-today 2010 RF12: A second asteroid will buzz the Earth today], csmonitor.com, September 8, 2010
[https://www.planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakdawalla/2010/2654.html Early warning for close approaches of two house-sized asteroids], The Planetary Society, September 8, 2010
{{NeoDys|2010RF12}}
{{ESA-SSA|2010RF12}}
{{JPL small body}}

{{Portal bar|Astronomy|Stars|Spaceflight|Outer space|Solar System}}

Category:Minor planet object articles (unnumbered)

Category:Potential impact events caused by near-Earth objects

20100908

20100905

2010 RF12

Description

See also

Notes

References

External links