2012 United States presidential election in Alaska

{{Short description|none}}

{{Use mdy dates|date=September 2023}}

{{Main|2012 United States presidential election}}

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2012 United States presidential election in Alaska

| country = Alaska

| type = presidential

| ongoing = no

| previous_election = 2008 United States presidential election in Alaska

| previous_year = 2008

| election_date = November 6, 2012

| next_election = 2016 United States presidential election in Alaska

| next_year = 2016

| image_size = x200px

| image1 = Mitt_Romney_by_Gage_Skidmore_6_cropped.jpg

| nominee1 = Mitt Romney

| party1 = Republican Party (United States)

| home_state1 = Massachusetts

| running_mate1 = Paul Ryan

| electoral_vote1 = 3

| popular_vote1 = 164,676

| percentage1 = 54.80%

| map_image = {{Switcher

| 400px

| Borough results {{small|(modern boundaries)}}

| 400px|Borough results {{small|(concurrent boundaries)}}

| 400px

| State house district results|default=2

}}

{{col-begin}}

{{col-2}}

Romney

{{legend|#f2b3be|40–50%}}

{{legend|#e27f90|50–60%}}

{{legend|#cc2f4a|60–70%}}

{{legend|#d40000|70–80%}}

{{col-2}}

Obama

{{legend|#b9d7ff|40–50%}}

{{legend|#86b6f2|50–60%}}

{{legend|#4389e3|60–70%}}

{{legend|#1666cb|70–80%}}

{{col-end}}

| title = President

| before_election = Barack Obama

| before_party = Democratic Party (United States)

| after_election = Barack Obama

| after_party = Democratic Party (United States)

| image2 = President Barack Obama, 2012 portrait crop.jpg

| nominee2 = Barack Obama

| party2= Democratic Party (United States)

| home_state2= Illinois

| running_mate2 = Joe Biden

| electoral_vote2 = 0

| popular_vote2 = 122,640

| percentage2 = 40.81%

}}

{{Elections in Alaska sidebar}}

The 2012 United States presidential election in Alaska took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Alaska voters chose three electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

Prior to the election, all leading news organizations considered this a state Romney would win, making Alaska a safe red state. Romney won the state of Alaska with 54.80% of the vote, while Obama received 40.81%.[http://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/12GENR/data/results.htm State of Alaska 2012 General Election Official Results] This was the first time since 1968 that a Democrat received more than 40% of the vote in Alaska. No Democrat has won Alaska since it was won by Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

Although Romney easily won its three electoral votes, it was one of six states{{efn|name=fn1}} to swing toward Obama relative to 2008, when Alaska was won with a 21.5% margin of victory by Republican nominee John McCain running with the incumbent governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin, as his vice-presidential candidate. Obama closed his margin of defeat by 7.55% compared to his 2008 loss, thereby making it the state with the strongest Democratic gain in 2012.

Obama also flipped seven boroughs and census areas that he had lost in 2008.{{Cite web|title=Alaska Presidential Results by County, 1960-2016{{!}}Maps|url=https://www.thecinyc.com/alaska-pres-results-by-county-equiv|access-date=2020-09-01|website=thecinyc|language=en|archive-date=January 25, 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210125190836/https://www.thecinyc.com/alaska-pres-results-by-county-equiv|url-status=dead}} As of the 2024 election, this is the last election in which Haines Borough voted for the Republican candidate.

Caucuses

=Democratic caucuses=

The Alaska Democratic caucuses were held from April 10 to 14, 2012, with the state party convention being held from May 11 to 13.{{Cite web|title=Alaska Democratic Delegation 2012|url=http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/AK-D|access-date=2020-09-01|website=www.thegreenpapers.com}} Precincts within House Districts combined to hold caucuses to pledge delegates to the State Convention. Obama ran mostly unopposed (with the exception of Randall Terry, who was on the ballot but received no votes) and consequently received all of the 500 popular votes and 24 delegates.

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2012 Alaska Democratic presidential caucuses

| country = Alaska

| type = presidential

| ongoing = no

| previous_election = 2008 Alaska Democratic presidential caucuses

| previous_year = 2008

| election_date = April 14, 2012

| next_election = 2016 Alaska Democratic presidential caucuses

| next_year = 2016

| image1 = 142px

| candidate1 = Barack Obama

| home_state1 = Illinois

| delegate_count1 = 19

| popular_vote1 = 500

| percentage1 = 100.00%

| map_image =

| map_size =

| map_caption =

| image2 = File:NOTA Option Logo 3x4.svg

| candidate2 = Uncommitted

| home_state2 = N/A

| delegate_count2 = 0

| popular_vote2 = 0

| percentage2 = 0.00%

| image_size = x125px

| color1 = 1E90FF

| color2 = 000000

| votes_for_election = 24 Democratic National Convention delegates (19 pledged, 5 unpledged)
The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote

}}{{clear}}

=Republican caucuses=

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2012 United States presidential caucuses in Alaska (Republican Party)

| country = Alaska

| type = presidential

| ongoing = no

| previous_election = 2008 Alaska Republican presidential caucuses

| previous_year = 2008

| election_date = March 6, 2012

| next_election = 2016 Alaska Republican presidential caucuses

| next_year = 2016

| image1 = Mitt_Romney_by_Gage_Skidmore_6_cropped.jpg

| candidate1 = Mitt Romney

| home_state1 = Massachusetts

| delegate_count1 = 8

| popular_vote1 = 4,285

| percentage1 = 32.42%

| map_image =

| map_size =

| map_caption =

| image2 = Rick Santorum by Gage Skidmore.jpg

| candidate2 = Rick Santorum

| home_state2 = Pennsylvania

| delegate_count2 = 7

| popular_vote2 = 3,860

| percentage2 = 29.20%

| image4 = Ron Paul by Gage Skidmore 3 (crop 2).jpg

| candidate4 = Ron Paul

| home_state4 = Texas

| delegate_count4 = 6

| popular_vote4 = 3,175

| percentage4 = 24.02%

| image5 = Newt Gingrich by Gage Skidmore 3 (cropped).jpg

| candidate5 = Newt Gingrich

| home_state5 = Georgia

| delegate_count5 = 3

| popular_vote5 = 1,865

| percentage5 = 14.11%

| image_size = x125px

| color1 = ff6600

| color2 = 008000

| color4 = ffcc00

| color5 = 800080

}}

The Alaska Republican caucuses were held Super Tuesday, March 6, 2012.{{Cite web|title=Alaska Republican Events|url=http://alaskarepublicans.com/alaska-republican-events|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120320052943/http://alaskarepublicans.com/alaska-republican-events/|archive-date=2012-03-20|access-date=2012-03-06}}{{cite news|title=Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar|publisher=CNN|url=http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/calendar.html|access-date=January 11, 2012}}{{cite news|title=Presidential Primary Dates|publisher=Federal Election Commission|url=http://www.FEC.gov/pubrec/fe2012/2012pdates.pdf|access-date=January 23, 2012}} The presidential preference poll portion of the caucuses was scheduled between 4 pm and 8 pm local time (which is 8 pm to midnight EST) at locations across the state and one caucus in Washington, D.C.{{cite news|title=2012 Convention Process|publisher=ARP|url=http://alaskarepublicans.com/convention-process/|url-status=dead|access-date=February 26, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120217171522/http://alaskarepublicans.com/convention-process/|archive-date=February 17, 2012|df=mdy-all}}

Similar to the 2012 Nevada caucuses, the results of the presidential preference poll will be used to directly and proportionately apportion 24 national convention delegates among the candidates.{{cite news|title=2012 Convention Process|publisher=ARP|url=http://alaskarepublicans.com/convention-process/|url-status=dead|access-date=February 26, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120217171522/http://alaskarepublicans.com/convention-process/|archive-date=February 17, 2012|df=mdy-all}} Another 3 super delegates are unbound and not determined by the caucus results.{{cite web|author=Nate Silver|author-link=Nate Silver|date=March 4, 2012|title=Romney Could Win Majority of Super Tuesday Delegates|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/04/romney-could-win-majority-of-super-tuesday-delegates/|access-date=March 5, 2012|publisher=FiveThirtyEight}}

class=wikitable
style="background:#eee; text-align:center;"

! colspan="4" | 2012 Alaska Republican presidential caucuses[http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/alaska New York Times], Retrieved March 23, 2012.

style="background:#eee; text-align:center;"

! Candidate

! Votes

! Percentage

! Estimated national delegates

align="right" bgcolor="pink"

| align="left"| Mitt Romney

| 4,285

| 32.42%

| 8

align="left"|Rick Santorum

| 3,860

| 29.20%

| 7

align="left"| Ron Paul

| 3,175

| 24.02%

| 6

align="left"| Newt Gingrich

| 1,865

| 14.11%

| 3

align="left"| Uncommitted

| 34

| 0.26%

|

bgcolor="#eeeeee"

| colspan="3"| Unprojected delegates:

| 3

bgcolor="#EEEEEE"

| Totals

| 13,219

| 100.00%

| 27

General election

=Predictions=

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"

!Source

!Ranking

!As of

align="left" |Huffington Post{{cite news|title=Huffington Post Election Dashboard|work=HuffPost|url=http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map |archive-url=https://archive.today/20130813173708/http://web.archive.org/web/20120502191502/http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map |archive-date=2013-08-13}}

|{{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

|November 6, 2012

align="left" |CNN{{cite news|title=America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map|work=CNN|url=http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#?battleground |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://archive.today/20130119130158/http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator%23?battleground |archive-date=2013-01-19}}

|{{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

|November 6, 2012

align=left | The New York Times{{cite news|title=Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory|work=The New York Times|url=https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2012/electoral-map.html |archive-url=https://archive.today/20120708093751/http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map |archive-date=July 8, 2012}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

| November 6, 2012

align="left" |The Washington Post{{cite news|title=2012 Presidential Election Results|newspaper=The Washington Post|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/election-map-2012/president/ |url-access=limited |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120726195644/https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/election-map-2012/president/ |archive-date=2012-07-26}}

|{{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

|November 6, 2012

align="left" |RealClearPolitics{{cite web| url = http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html| url-status = dead| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20110608112207/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html| archive-date = 2011-06-08| title = RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House}}

|{{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

|November 6, 2012

align="left" |Sabato's Crystal Ball{{cite web|url= https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/projection-obama-will-likely-win-second-term/|title= PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM}}

|{{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

|November 5, 2012

align="left" |FiveThirtyEight{{cite web|url= https://www.masslive.com/news/2012/11/nate_silvers_political_calcula.html|title= Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome}}

|{{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

|November 6, 2012

=Candidate ballot access=

=Results=

class="wikitable" style="font-size: 95%;"
colspan="7" | 2012 United States presidential election in Alaska{{Cite web|url=https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2012&fips=2&f=1&off=0&elect=0|title=2012 Presidential General Election Results - Alaska|publisher=Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections}}
colspan="2" style="width: 15em" |Party

! style="width: 17em" |Candidate

! style="width: 17em" |Running mate

! style="width: 5em" |Votes

! style="width: 7em" |Percentage

! style="width: 5em" |Electoral votes

style="background-color:#FF3333; width: 3px" |

! scope="row" style="width: 130px" |Republican

|Mitt Romney

|Paul Ryan

| align="right" |164,676

| align="right" |54.80%

| align="right" |3

style="background-color:#3333FF; width: 3px" |

! scope="row" style="width: 130px" |Democratic

|Barack Obama (incumbent)

|Joe Biden (incumbent)

| align="right" | 122,640

| align="right" | 40.81%

| align="right" | 0

style="background-color:#FFD700; width: 3px" |

! scope="row" style="width: 130px" |Libertarian

|Gary Johnson

|Jim Gray

| align="right" | 7,392

| align="right" | 2.46%

| align="right" | 0

style="background-color:#0BDA51; width: 3px" |

! scope="row" style="width: 130px" |Green

|Jill Stein

|Cheri Honkala

| align="right" | 2,917

| align="right" | 0.97%

| align="right" | 0

style="background-color:#999999; width: 3px" |

! scope="row" style="width: 130px" | Write-ins

| colspan="2" | Write-ins

| align="right" | 2,870

| align="right" | 0.96%

| align="right" | 0

bgcolor="#EEEEEE"

| colspan="4" align="right" |Totals

| align="right" |300,495

| align="right" |100.00%

| align="right" |3

bgcolor="#EEEEEE"

== Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Democratic ==

=By congressional district=

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, an at-large district because it covers the entire state, is thus equivalent to the statewide election results.

class=wikitable

! District

! Romney

! Obama

! Representative

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|At-large

| 54.80%

| 40.81%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Don Young

See also

Notes

{{notelist|refs=

{{efn|name=fn1|The others being Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey, and New York.}}

}}

References

{{Reflist|30em}}