2016 United States Senate election in Kansas

{{Short description|none}}

{{Use mdy dates|date=September 2023}}

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2016 United States Senate election in Kansas

| country = Kansas

| type = presidential

| ongoing = no

| previous_election = 2010 United States Senate election in Kansas

| previous_year = 2010

| next_election = 2022 United States Senate election in Kansas

| next_year = 2022

| election_date = November 8, 2016

| image1 = File:Jerry Moran, official portrait, 112th Congress headshot.jpg

| image_size = 150x150px

| nominee1 = Jerry Moran

| party1 = Republican Party (United States)

| popular_vote1 = 732,376

| percentage1 = 62.18%

| image2 = 3x4.svg

| nominee2 = Patrick Wiesner

| party2 = Democratic Party (United States)

| popular_vote2 = 379,740

| percentage2 = 32.24%

| image3 = 3x4.svg

| nominee3 = Robert Garrard

| party3 = Libertarian Party (United States)

| popular_vote3 = 65,760

| percentage3 = 5.58%

| map_image = {{switcher |271px |County results |271px |Congressional districts results |271px |Precinct results |default=1}}

| map_size = 251px

| map_caption = Moran: {{legend0|#FFB2B2|40–50%}} {{legend0|#E27F7F|50–60%}} {{legend0|#d75d5d|60–70%}} {{legend0|#D72F30|70–80%}} {{legend0|#C21B18|80–90%}} {{legend0|#A80000|>90%}}
Wiesner: {{legend0|#A5B0FF|40–50%}} {{legend0|#7996e2|50–60%}} {{legend0|#6674de|60–70%}} {{legend0|#584cde|70–80%}} {{legend0|#3933e5|80–90%}} {{legend0|#0D0596|>90%}}
Tie: {{legend0|#d2b1d9|40–50%}} {{legend0|#ae8bb1|50%}} {{legend0|#808080|No data}}

| title = U.S. Senator

| before_election = Jerry Moran

| before_party = Republican Party (United States)

| after_election = Jerry Moran

| after_party = Republican Party (United States)

}}

{{Elections in Kansas}}

The 2016 United States Senate election in Kansas was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on August 2.

Incumbent Republican Senator Jerry Moran won re-election to a second term in office.

Republican primary

=Candidates=

==Declared==

  • Jerry Moran, incumbent senator{{cite web|url=http://atr.rollcall.com/elections-2016-tim-huelskamp-jerry-moran-kansas-senate-primary/|title=Huelskamp Open to Moran Primary Challenge|date=November 19, 2014|access-date=November 19, 2014|work=Roll Call|author=Alexis Levinson|archive-date=November 21, 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141121180659/http://atr.rollcall.com/elections-2016-tim-huelskamp-jerry-moran-kansas-senate-primary/|url-status=dead}}
  • D.J. Smith, former Osawatomie city councilwoman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014{{cite web|url=http://cjonline.com/news/2016-06-02/rep-lynn-jenkins-drops-challenger-sen-jerry-moran-gains-one-filing-deadline#|work=Topeka Capital-Journal|title=Rep. Lynn Jenkins drops a challenger, Sen. Jerry Moran gains one at the filing deadline|date=June 2, 2016|access-date=June 2, 2016|first=Justin|last=Wingerter}}

==Declined==

  • Tim Huelskamp, U.S. Representative{{cite web|url=http://atr.rollcall.com/house-races-2016-tim-huelskamp-wont-challenge-jerry-moran/|title=Congressman Says Wife Nixed Senate Run|date=January 8, 2015|access-date=January 8, 2015|work=Roll Call|author=Alexis Levinson|archive-date=January 8, 2015|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150108232536/http://atr.rollcall.com/house-races-2016-tim-huelskamp-wont-challenge-jerry-moran/|url-status=dead}}
  • Mike Pompeo, U.S. Representative{{cite web|url=http://www.hdnews.net/news/local/pompeo-doesn-t-rule-out-a-senate-race-while-criticizing/article_f92e5554-e60f-51a9-a73e-b62908222b36.html|title=Pompeo doesn't rule out a Senate race while criticizing Moran|work=Hays Daily News|last=Clarkin|first=Mary|date=April 5, 2016|access-date=April 5, 2016}}
  • Todd Tiahrt, former U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010{{cite web|url=http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/2016-senate-races-113837_Page2.html|title=16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate|date=December 29, 2014|access-date=December 29, 2014|work=Politico|last=Cheney|first=Kyle}}{{cite web|url=http://www.hutchnews.com/news/local_state_news/ex-congressman-tiahrt-bound-for-d-c-lobbying-firm/article_2a58cfa4-a989-5ca9-8c77-9ca6ab847640.html|title=Ex-Congressman Tiahrt bound for D.C. lobbying firm|date=April 27, 2015|access-date=May 30, 2015|work=The Hutchinson News|last=Clarkin|first=Mary}}
  • Milton Wolf, radiologist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014{{cite web|url=http://atr.rollcall.com/2014-elections-kansas-primary-pat-roberts-milton-wolf/|title=In Kansas, Conservatives Suffer From Mississippi Hangover|date=July 29, 2014|access-date=September 11, 2014|work=Roll Call|author=Alexis Levinson|archive-date=October 4, 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141004030459/http://atr.rollcall.com/2014-elections-kansas-primary-pat-roberts-milton-wolf/|url-status=dead}}{{cite web|url=http://cjonline.com/news/2015-11-03/prospective-2016-us-senate-contender-milton-wolf-tries-terminate-his-campaign|title=Prospective 2016 U.S. Senate contender Milton Wolf tries to terminate his campaign committee|work=The Topeka Capital-Journal|last=Wingerter|first=Justin|date=November 3, 2015|access-date=November 11, 2015}}{{cite web|url=http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article61352987.html|title=Milton Wolf hints, but won't commit, to another race this year for the U.S. Senate from Kansas|work=The Kansas City Star|last=Kraske|first=Steve|date=February 19, 2016|access-date=March 22, 2016}}

= Polling =

class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;"
valign=bottom style="font-size:90%;"

! Poll source

! Date(s)
administered

! Sample
size

! Margin
{{nowrap|of error}}

! Jerry
Moran

! Dennis
Pyle

! Milton
Wolf

! Undecided

rowspan=2|Public Opinion Strategies (R-Moran)[http://images.politico.com/global/2015/03/30/kansas_memo.pdf Public Opinion Strategies (R-Moran)]

| rowspan=2| February 28 – March 3, 2015

| rowspan=2| 500

| rowspan=2| ± 4.38%

| {{party shading/Republican}} | 73%

! 9%

! —

! 18%

{{party shading/Republican}} | 70%

! —

! 18%

! 12%

=Results=

{{Election box begin no change

| title = Republican primary results {{cite news|url=http://www.kssos.org/elections/elections_statistics.html |title=2016 Official Primary Results |date=August 2, 2016 |access-date=November 18, 2016 |publisher=Kansas Secretary of State }}

}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Jerry Moran (Incumbent)

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 230,907

| percentage = 79.09%

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| candidate = D. J. Smith

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| votes = 61,056

| percentage = 20.91%

}}

{{Election box total no change

| votes = 291,963

| percentage = 100.00%

}}

{{Election box end}}

Democratic primary

=Candidates=

==Declared==

  • Monique Singh-Bey, member of Universal African Peoples Organization{{cite news|last=Mason|first=Tori|date=December 1, 2015|work=WIBW|url=http://www.wibw.com/home/headlines/Topeka-native-announces-candidacy-for-US-Senate--359660981.html|title=Topeka native announces candidacy for U.S. Senate|access-date=March 10, 2016|archive-date=March 11, 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160311024744/http://www.wibw.com/home/headlines/Topeka-native-announces-candidacy-for-US-Senate--359660981.html|url-status=dead}}
  • Patrick Wiesner, attorney and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2014{{cite web|url=http://www.hutchnews.com/news/local_state_news/democrat-patrick-wiesner-files-for-jerry-moran-s-senate-seat/article_32f36fd7-310f-55fb-8c00-6873daf219f1.html|title=Democrat Patrick Wiesner files for Jerry Moran's Senate seat|work=The Hutchinson News|last=Clarkin|first=Mary|date=February 4, 2016|access-date=February 5, 2016|archive-date=October 3, 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161003015029/http://www.hutchnews.com/news/local_state_news/democrat-patrick-wiesner-files-for-jerry-moran-s-senate-seat/article_32f36fd7-310f-55fb-8c00-6873daf219f1.html|url-status=dead}}

==Declined==

=Results=

[[File:Kansas Democratic Senate primary, 2016.svg|250px|thumb|Results by county:

{{collapsible list

| title = {{legend|#7996e2ff|Wiesner}}

|{{legend|#7996e2ff|50–60%}}

|{{legend|#6674deff|60–70%}}

|{{legend|#584cdeff|70–80%}}

|{{legend|#1e1dbeff|80–90%}}

}}

{{collapsible list

| title = {{legend|#aade87|Singh-Bey}}

|{{legend|#8dd35f|60–70%}}

}}

]]

{{Election box begin no change

| title = Democratic primary results

}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Patrick Wiesner

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| votes = 59,522

| percentage = 62.94%

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Monique Singh-Bey

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| votes = 35,042

| percentage = 37.06%

}}

{{Election box total no change

| votes = 94,564

| percentage = 100.00%

}}

{{Election box end}}

Libertarian primary

=Candidates=

==Declared==

{{Election box begin no change

| title = Libertarian primary results

}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change

| candidate = Robert Garrard

| party = Libertarian Party (United States)

| votes =  

| percentage = 100.00%

}}

{{Election box total no change

| votes =  

| percentage = 100.00%

}}

{{Election box end}}

Independent

=Candidates=

==Declined==

  • Greg Orman, businessman and Independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014

General election

=Predictions=

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
Source

! Ranking

! As of

align=left | The Cook Political Report{{cite web | title=2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016 | url=https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139360 | website=The Cook Political Report | access-date=March 26, 2021}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

| November 2, 2016

align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball{{cite web | title=2016 Senate | url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-senate | website=Sabato's Crystal Ball | access-date=September 19, 2016}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

| November 7, 2016

align=left | Rothenberg Political Report{{cite web | title=2016 Senate Ratings | url=https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2016-senate-ratings-november-3-2016 | work=Senate Ratings | publisher=The Rothenberg Political Report | access-date=November 3, 2016}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

| November 3, 2016

align=left | Daily Kos{{cite web | title=Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version | url=https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/8/1593119/-Daily-Kos-Election-2016-forecast-The-final-version | website=Daily Kos | access-date=March 27, 2021}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

| November 8, 2016

align=left | Real Clear Politics{{cite web | title=Battle for the Senate 2016 | url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/2016_elections_senate_map.html| publisher=Real Clear Politics | access-date=October 28, 2016}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

| November 7, 2016

= Polling =

{{Graph:Chart

| width=700

| height=400

| xAxisTitle=

| yAxisTitle=%support

| xAxisAngle = -40

| legend=Candidate

| interpolate = bundle

| size = 77

| xType = date

| y1Title=Jerry Moran

| y2Title=Patrick Wiesner

| y3Title=Robert Garrard

| y4Title=Undecided

| type=line

|xGrid=

| x= 2016/07/11, 2016/08/07, 2016/09/11, 2016/10/15, 2016/10/30, 2016/10/31, 2016/11/01, 2016/11/02, 2016/11/03, 2016/11/03, 2016/11/06, 2016/11/07,

| y1= 52, 52, 50, 56, 55, 56, 57, 57, 58, 77, 58, 59

| y2= 33, 32, 34, 31, 31, 39, 38, 38, 38, 13, 38, 37

| y3= , 6, 6, 5, 6, , , , , 10, , ,

| y4= 15, 10, 11, 8, 8, 5, 5, 5, 4, 0, 4, 4

| colors = #E81B23, #3333FF, yellow, #DCDCDC

| showSymbols = 1

| yGrid = true

| linewidth = 2.0

}}

class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%;"
valign= bottom

! Poll source

! Date(s)
administered

! Sample
size

! Margin of
error

! style="width:100px;"| Jerry
Moran (R)

! style="width:100px;"| Patrick
Wiesner (D)

! style="width:100px;"| Robert
Garrard (L)

! style="width:40px;"| Undecided

SurveyMonkey[https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArc1RLTFJqQ3JhTTA/view SurveyMonkey]

| align=center| November 1–7, 2016

| align=center| 1,311

| align=center| ± 4.6%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 59%

| align=center| 37%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 4%

SurveyMonkey[https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcEwxQXh2M25qSFE/view SurveyMonkey]

| align=center| October 31–November 6, 2016

| align=center| 1,139

| align=center| ± 4.6%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 58%

| align=center| 38%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 4%

Fort Hays State University[http://www.kansas.com/news/local/article112533742.html Fort Hays State University]

| align=center| November 1–3, 2016

| align=center| 313

| align=center| ± 3.5%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 77%

| align=center| 13%

| align=center| 10%

| align=center| 0%

SurveyMonkey[https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAreE9xVzhyUUNZNGc/view SurveyMonkey]

| align=center| October 28–November 3, 2016

| align=center| 1,162

| align=center| ± 4.6%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 58%

| align=center| 38%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 4%

SurveyMonkey[https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArd1o5cmhoTmVQbDg/view SurveyMonkey]

| align=center| October 27–November 2, 2016

| align=center| 1,123

| align=center| ± 4.6%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 57%

| align=center| 38%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 5%

SurveyMonkey[https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcTNEc0hBTzFlSVE/view SurveyMonkey]

| align=center| October 26–November 1, 2016

| align=center| 1,164

| align=center| ± 4.6%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 57%

| align=center| 38%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 5%

SurveyMonkey[https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAraEFpRXdFc21TVG8/view SurveyMonkey]

| align=center| October 25–31, 2016

| align=center| 1,273

| align=center| ± 4.6%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 56%

| align=center| 39%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 5%

KSN News/SurveyUSA[http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0e1d48a5-2698-448f-8f7a-fa2c92996543 KSN News/SurveyUSA]

| align=center| October 26–30, 2016

| align=center| 596

| align=center| ± 4.1%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 55%

| align=center| 31%

| align=center| 6%

| align=center| 8%

KSN News/SurveyUSA[http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=191ff880-bbb1-48d3-81d2-7b225731d0fd KSN News/SurveyUSA]

| align=center| October 11–15, 2016

| align=center| 549

| align=center| ± 4.2%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 56%

| align=center| 31%

| align=center| 5%

| align=center| 8%

KSN News/SurveyUSA[http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=75f6eaff-73bc-4e49-a83f-588adb59bed7 KSN News/SurveyUSA]

| align=center| September 6–11, 2016

| align=center| 565

| align=center| ± 4.2%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 50%

| align=center| 34%

| align=center| 6%

| align=center| 11%

KSN News/SurveyUSA[http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=048dcf9b-7e4e-4ca3-8da6-f0f3b7662e73 KSN News/SurveyUSA]

| align=center| August 3–7, 2016

| align=center| 566

| align=center| ± 4.2%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 52%

| align=center| 32%

| align=center| 6%

| align=center| 10%

KSN News/SurveyUSA[http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7a998d53-af1c-4a34-996c-6de020dea785 KSN News/SurveyUSA]

| align=center| July 8–11, 2016

| align=center| 537

| align=center| ± 4.3%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 52%

| align=center| 33%

| align=center| —

| align=center| 15%

{{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#cff|title=Hypothetical polling|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}

with Monique Singh-Bey

class="wikitable"
valign= bottom

! style="width:170px;"| Poll source

! style="width:180px;"| Date(s)
administered

! class=small | Sample
size

! class=small | Margin of
error

! style="width:100px;"| Jerry
Moran (R)

! style="width:100px;"| Monique
Singh-Bey (D)

! style="width:40px;"| Undecided

KSN News/SurveyUSA

| align=center| July 8–11, 2016

| align=center| 537

| align=center| ± 4.3%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 54%

| align=center| 30%

| align=center| 15%

with Kathleen Sebelius

class="wikitable"
valign= bottom

! style="width:170px;"| Poll source

! style="width:180px;"| Date(s)
administered

! class=small | Sample
size

! class=small | Margin of
error

! style="width:100px;"| Jerry
Moran (R)

! style="width:100px;"| Kathleen
Sebelius (D)

! style="width:40px;"| Undecided

Public Policy Polling[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_KS_916513.pdf Public Policy Polling]

| align=center| September 11–14, 2014

| align=center| 1,328

| align=center| ± 2.7%

| {{party shading/Republican}} align=center| 52%

| align=center| 37%

| align=center| 11%

{{hidden end}}

=Results=

{{Election box begin | title=United States Senate election in Kansas, 2016 {{cite news|url=http://www.kssos.org/elections/16elec/2016_General_Election_Official_Results.pdf |title=2016 General Election Official Results |date=November 8, 2016 |access-date=January 3, 2017 |publisher=Kansas Secretary of State }}}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| candidate = Jerry Moran (incumbent)

| votes = 732,376

| percentage = 62.18%

| change = -7.91%

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| candidate = Patrick Wiesner

| votes = 379,740

| percentage = 32.24%

| change = +5.86%

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

| party = Libertarian Party (United States)

| candidate = Robert D. Garrard

| votes = 65,760

| percentage = 5.58%

| change = +3.44%

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

| party = Independent (United States)

| candidate = DJ Smith (write-in)

| votes = 46

| percentage = 0.00%

| change = N/A

}}

{{Election box total

| votes = 1,177,922

| percentage = 100.0%

| change = N/A

}}

{{Election box hold with party link no swing

| winner = Republican Party (United States)

}}

{{Election box end}}

==By congressional district==

Moran won all 4 congressional districts.{{Cite web |title=DRA 2020 |url=https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::d5273801-39a6-4ad6-89fe-c0d1d7460680 |access-date=2024-08-20 |website=Daves Redistricting}}

class="wikitable sortable"

! District

! Moran

! Wiesner

| Garrard

! class="unsortable"| Representative

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Kansas|1|1st}}

| 76%

| 19%

| 5%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Roger Marshall

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Kansas|2|2nd}}

|59%

| 36%

| 5%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Lynn Jenkins

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Kansas|3|3rd}}

| 53%

| 42%

| 6%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Kevin Yoder

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Kansas|4|4th}}

| 64%

| 30%

| 6%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Mike Pompeo

References

{{reflist}}