2018 Victorian state election

{{short description|Election for the 59th Parliament of Victoria}}

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2018 Victorian state election

| country = Victoria

| type = parliamentary

| vote_type = Primary

| ongoing = no

| previous_election = 2014 Victorian state election

| previous_year = 2014

| next_election = 2022 Victorian state election

| next_year = 2022

| seats_for_election = All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly
All 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council
45 seats needed for a majority

| election_date = 24 November 2018

| image1 = {{CSS image crop |Image = Daniel Andrews 2018.jpg|bSize = 130|cWidth = 120|cHeight = 170|oTop = 5|oLeft = 5|Location = center}}

| leader1 = Daniel Andrews

| leader_since1 = 3 December 2010

| party1 = Australian Labor Party (Victorian Branch)

| leaders_seat1 = Mulgrave

| popular_vote1 = 1,506,460

| percentage1 = 42.86%

| swing1 = {{increase}} 4.77

| last_election1 = 47 seats

| seats_before1 = 45

| seats1 = 55

| seat_change1 = {{increase}} 10

| leader2 = Matthew Guy

| leader_since2 = 4 December 2014

| image2 = {{CSS image crop |Image = 2015 Matthew Guy MLA b.jpg|bSize = 125|cWidth = 120|cHeight = 170|oTop = 5|oLeft = 5|Location = center}}

| party2 = Liberal–National coalition

| colour2 = {{party color|Liberal/National coalition}}

| leaders_seat2 = Bulleen

| popular_vote2 = 1,236,912

| percentage2 = 35.20%

| swing2 = {{decrease}} 6.80

| last_election2 = 38 seats

| seats_before2 = 37

| seats2 = 27

| seat_change2 = {{decrease}} 10

| image3 = {{CSS image crop |Image = Samantha Ratnam (cropped).jpg|bSize = 130|cWidth = 120|cHeight = 170|oTop = 0|oLeft = 5|Location = center}}

| leader3 = {{nowrap|Samantha Ratnam}}

| leader_since3 = 12 October 2017

| party3 = Greens

| leaders_seat3 = MLC for Northern
Metropolitan

| popular_vote3 = 376,470

| percentage3 = 10.71%

| swing3 = {{decrease}} 0.77

| last_election3 = 2 seats

| seats_before3 = 3

| seats3 = 3

| seat_change3 = {{steady}}

| 1blank = TPP

| 1data1 = 57.30%

| 1data2 = 42.70%

| 1data3 =

| 2blank = TPP swing

| 2data1 = {{increase}} 5.31

| 2data2 = {{decrease}} 5.31

| 2data3 =

| map_image = 2018 Victorian state election.svg

| map_size = 400px

| map_caption = Results in each electorate.

| title = Premier

| before_election = Daniel Andrews

| before_party = Australian Labor Party (Victorian Branch)

| posttitle = Premier after election

| after_election = Daniel Andrews

| after_party = Australian Labor Party (Victorian Branch)

| opinion_polls = #Opinion polling

}}

The 2018 Victorian state election was held on Saturday, 24 November 2018 to elect the 59th Parliament of Victoria. All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly (lower house) and all 40 seats in the Legislative Council (upper house) were up for election. The first-term incumbent Labor government, led by Premier Daniel Andrews, won a second four-year term, defeating the Liberal/National Coalition opposition, led by Opposition Leader Matthew Guy{{cite web|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-24/victorian-election-result-shows-labor-win/10551902|title=Victorian election result a Labor landslide with big swings in Melbourne's east |work=ABC News |date=24 November 2018}} in a landslide victory. Minor party the Greens led by Samantha Ratnam also contested the election.

Labor won 55 seats in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly, an increase of eight seats from the previous election in 2014, and a majority of 22 seats. This was the fifth time that a Labor government was re-elected in Victoria, and it tied Victorian Labor's second-best showing at the state level. The Coalition suffered an 11-seat swing against it, and won 27 seats. The Greens won 3 seats, a net increase of 1 seat since the last election though equal to the share of seats they held when the election was called. The remaining three seats on the crossbench were won by independents.{{cite web|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/|title=Results: Victorian Election 2018|work=ABC Elections}} In the Legislative Council, Labor won 18 seats, three short of a majority. The Coalition won 11 seats, and the remaining 11 seats were won by a range of minor parties from across the political spectrum.

Several days after Labor's victory, the Second Andrews Ministry was sworn in by the Governor and was notable for featuring an equal number of men and women.{{cite web|url=https://www.9news.com.au/2018/11/29/13/31/daniel-andrews-new-look-cabinet|title=Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews unveils reshuffled cabinet with 50 percent women in senior positions|date=29 November 2018|work=9 News}} The following week the Liberal Party elected Michael O'Brien leader of the party, who became Opposition Leader in the new parliament, after Guy had announced earlier he would stand down from the position.{{cite web|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-06/victorian-liberal-leadership-change-after-election-loss/10588046|title=Michael O'Brien elected Victorian Liberal leader, replacing Matthew Guy after state election loss|work=ABC News|date=6 December 2018}}

For the election, Victoria had compulsory voting and used majoritarian preferential voting in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly, and Single transferable vote (STV) in multi-member seats for the proportionally represented Legislative Council. The Legislative Council had 40 members serving four-year terms, elected from eight electoral regions each with five members. With each region electing 5 members, the quota in each region for election, after distribution of preferences, was 16.7% (one-sixth) of the valid votes cast in that district. The election was conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC), an independent body answerable to parliament.

Key dates

Pursuant to the Electoral Act 2002, Victoria has had fixed terms, with all elections since the 2006 election held every four years on the last Saturday of November.{{cite web|author1=Table Office|title=Information Sheet 16 – A New Electoral System for Victoria's Legislative Council|url=http://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/council/publications-a-research/information-sheets/16-electoral-system|website=Department of the Legislative Council|publisher=Parliament of Victoria|access-date=9 February 2015|date=24 May 2010|archive-date=31 December 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141231111513/http://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/council/publications-a-research/information-sheets/16-electoral-system|url-status=dead}}{{cite web|title=Fact Sheet G3: Elections|url=https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/assembly/publications-a-research/fact-sheets/2453-fact-sheet-g3|website=Parliament of Victoria|access-date=9 February 2015|format=PDF|date=December 2010}} The incumbent government entered into caretaker mode at 6:00 pm on Tuesday, 30 October 2018, when writs were officially issued.{{cite web |title=State Election Service Plan |url=https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/files/StateElectionServicePlan2018.pdf |publisher=Victorian Electoral Commission |access-date=8 October 2018 |archive-date=8 October 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181008061723/https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/files/StateElectionServicePlan2018.pdf |url-status=dead }}

Key dates for the election are:{{cite web|url=https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victorian-election-2018-key-dates-20181102-p50dqa.html|title=Victorian election 2018: key dates|work=The Age|date=2 November 2018 }}{{cite web|url=https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/about/news/4101-2018-victorian-state-election-key-dates|work=Parliament of Victoria|title=2018 Victorian State Election Key Dates}}

30 October: Writs issued by the Governor of Victoria
31 October: Opening of nominations for all candidates
6 November: Close of electoral roll
8 November: Close of nominations for party candidates
9 November: Close of nominations for independent candidates
12 November: Early voting begins
24 November: Election day (polls open 8am to 6pm)
30 November: Last day for receipt of postal votes
15 December: Last day for return of writs.

Previous parliament

= Legislative Assembly =

Following the 2014 election, Labor formed majority government with 47 seats. The Coalition held 38 seats, with the Liberal Party holding 30 and the National Party holding 8. On the crossbench, the Greens held 2 seats and Independent Suzanna Sheed held the seat of Shepparton.

= Legislative Council =

Following the 2014 election, Labor held 14 seats; the Coalition held 16 seats (14 Liberal, 2 National); the Greens held 5 seats; the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party held 2 seats; and the Sex Party (now the Reason Party), Democratic Labour Party, and Vote 1 Local Jobs party held 1 seat each.

= By-elections =

Former Nationals leader Peter Ryan announced his resignation from parliament on 2 February 2015, triggering a by-election in the seat of Gippsland South for 14 March.{{cite web|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-02/former-victorian-nationals-leader-peter-ryan-retires-from-polit/6061934 |title=Former Victorian Nationals leader Peter Ryan quits politics |publisher=Abc.net.au |date=2 February 2015 |access-date=28 September 2017}} The election was won by Danny O'Brien of the National Party.

Denis Napthine and Terry Mulder resigned from parliament on 3 September 2015. Their seats were retained by the Liberal Party in by-elections held in South-West Coast and Polwarth on 31 October.

Minister for Women and Minister for the Prevention of Family Violence Fiona Richardson died on 23 August 2017. A by-election was held in the seat of Northcote on 18 November, in which the Victorian Greens won the seat from the Labor Party.

= Changes in parliament =

Don Nardella, the former Deputy Speaker of the Assembly and member for the seat of Melton, resigned from the Labor Party on 7 March 2017 to sit as an independent. Nardella's resignation was demanded by Premier Andrews after Nardella refused to pay back approximately $100,000 of taxpayer funded entitlements in the midst an expenses scandal. The resignation reduced the number of Labor members in the Assembly from 47 to 46, still above the 45 seats needed for majority government to be formed. Nardella had previously announced his intention to quit politics at the 2018 election and following his resignation from the Labor Party stated he intended to serve out his full term as the member for Melton.{{cite news | url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-07/don-nardella-quits-labor-party-amid-entitlements-scandal/8330804 | title=Don Nardella resigns from parliamentary Labor Party, Colin Brooks chosen as new Victorian Speaker | work=Australian Broadcasting Corporation | date=7 March 2017 | access-date=7 March 2017}}

Russell Northe, the member for Morwell resigned from the National Party on 28 August 2017, due to mental health and financial issues, continuing in his position as an independent.{{cite news|title=Nationals MP 'lucky to be here' after battling depression, gambling|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-28/russell-northe-victorian-nationals-mp-for-morwell-to-leave-party/8838126|access-date=28 August 2017|work=ABC News|date=28 August 2017|language=en-AU}}

Greg Barber resigned as Leader of the Greens and from his Northern Metropolitan Region seat on 28 September 2017, and was replaced in both by Moreland councillor Samantha Ratnam.{{Cite news|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-28/victorian-greens-leader-greg-barber-quits-parliament-immediately/8997594|title=Victorian Greens leader Greg Barber quits, effective immediately|last=Willingham|first=Richard|date=28 September 2017|work=ABC News|access-date=21 March 2018|language=en-AU}}

Colleen Hartland, a Greens member of the Western Metropolitan Region, resigned on 8 February 2018,{{cite web|url=https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/exhausted-greens-mp-colleen-hartland-to-step-down-next-month-20180122-p4yypt.html|title='Exhausted' Greens MP Colleen Hartland to step down next month|last=Millar|first=Benjamin|date=22 January 2018|website=The Age|language=en|access-date=20 February 2018}} and was replaced by Huong Truong.

State of electorates

The following Mackerras pendulum lists seats in the Legislative Assembly according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis based on the 2014 election results.{{cite web|author1=Green, Antony|author-link1=Antony Green|title=Victorian Post-election Pendulum|url=http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2014/12/victorian-post-election-pendulum.html|website=ABC Elections – Antony Green's Election Blog|publisher=Australian Broadcasting Corporation|access-date=16 January 2015|date=11 December 2014}} The Australian Electoral Commission considers a seat "safe" if it requires a swing of over 10% to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10%, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6%.{{cite web|title=Political party name abbreviations & codes, demographic ratings and seat status|url=http://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/party-codes.htm#Seat%20status%20%28Party%20%27safeness%27%29|website=Australian Electoral Commission|access-date=16 January 2015}}

class="toccolours" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" style="float:left; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em; font-size:90%;"

colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;"| Labor seats - 2014

Seat

| Member

| Party

| Margin

colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;"|Marginal

style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Frankston

| style="text-align:left; background:#fdd;"|Paul Edbrooke