2022 North Rhine-Westphalia state election
{{short description|German state election}}
{{Infobox election
| election_name = 2022 North Rhine-Westphalia state election
| country = North Rhine-Westphalia
| type = parliamentary
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = 2017 North Rhine-Westphalia state election
| previous_year = 2017
| next_election = 2027 North Rhine-Westphalia state election
| next_year = 2027
| seats_for_election = All 195 seats in the Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia
| majority_seats = 98
| election_date = 15 May 2022
| turnout = 7,201,210 (55.5% {{decrease}} 9.6 pp)
| image1 = {{CSS image crop|Image=Eröffnung ICE-Instandhaltungswerk Köln-Nippes-9251 (cropped).jpg|bSize=150|cHeight=150|cWidth=120|oLeft=15}}
| candidate1 = Hendrik Wüst
| party1 = Christian Democratic Union of Germany
| last_election1 = 72 seats, 33.0%
| seats1 = 76
| seat_change1 = {{increase}} 4
| popular_vote1 = 2,552,276
| percentage1 = 35.7%
| swing1 = {{increase}} 2.8 pp
| image2 = {{CSS image crop|Image=Kutschaty, Thomas-1.jpg|bSize=120|cHeight=150|cWidth=120|oLeft=0}}
| candidate2 = Thomas Kutschaty
| party2 = Social Democratic Party of Germany
| last_election2 = 69 seats, 31.2%
| seats2 = 56
| seat_change2 = {{decrease}} 13
| popular_vote2 = 1,905,002
| percentage2 = 26.7%
| swing2 = {{decrease}} 4.6 pp
| image3 = {{CSS image crop|Image=Mona Neubaur - 42034755825.jpg|bSize=120|cHeight=150|cWidth=120|oLeft=0}}
| candidate3 = Mona Neubaur
| party3 = Alliance 90/The Greens
| last_election3 = 14 seats, 6.4%
| seats3 = 39
| seat_change3 = {{increase}} 25
| popular_vote3 = 1,299,821
| percentage3 = 18.2%
| swing3 = {{increase}} 11.8 pp
| image4 = {{CSS image crop|Image=Stamp, Joachim-1.jpg|bSize=120|cHeight=150|cWidth=120|oLeft=0}}
| candidate4 = Joachim Stamp
| party4 = Free Democratic Party (Germany)
| last_election4 = 28 seats, 12.6%
| seats4 = 12
| seat_change4 = {{decrease}} 16
| popular_vote4 = 418,460
| percentage4 = 5.9%
| swing4 = {{decrease}} 6.7 pp
| image5 = {{CSS image crop|Image=Markus Wagner, Spitzenkandidat.jpg|bSize=225|cHeight=150|cWidth=120|oLeft=40}}
| candidate5 = Markus Wagner
| party5 = Alternative for Germany
| last_election5 = 16 seats, 7.4%
| seats5 = 12
| seat_change5 = {{decrease}} 4
| popular_vote5 = 388,768
| percentage5 = 5.4%
| swing5 = {{decrease}} 1.9 pp
| map_image = File:North Rhine-Westphalia State Election 2022.svg
| map_size =
| map_caption = Map of the election, showing the winner of each single-member district and the distribution of list seats.
| title = Government
| before_election = First Wüst cabinet
| posttitle = Government after election
| after_election = Second Wüst cabinet
| after_party = CDU-Green
}}
The 2022 North Rhine-Westphalia state election was held on 15 May 2022 to elect the 18th Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia. The outgoing government (First Wüst cabinet) was a coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Free Democratic Party (FDP) led by Minister-President Hendrik Wüst.
The CDU remained the largest party with 36% of votes, a small increase from 2017, while the opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) declined to 27%. The Greens almost tripled their vote share to 18%. The FDP fell sharply to 6%, and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) slipped to 5%. Overall, the incumbent coalition lost its majority, though the opposition SPD and Greens also fell short of victory.{{cite web|url=https://www.dw.com/en/germany-scholzs-party-defeated-in-bellwether-north-rhine-westphalia-election/a-61803497|title=Germany: Scholz's party defeated in bellwether North Rhine-Westphalia election|date=15 May 2022 |website=Deutsche Welle}}{{cite web|url=https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/chancellor-scholzs-spd-party-faces-test-key-state-vote-2022-05-15/|title=Germany's conservatives on track to win key state vote|date=15 May 2022|website=Deutsche Welle}}
After the election, CDU formed a coalition with the Greens. This was the first time the two parties had worked together on the state level in North Rhine-Westphalia. Hendrik Wüst was re-elected as Minister-President on 28 June, and his cabinet was sworn in the next day.{{cite web|url=https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/hendrik-wuest-cdu-als-nrw-ministerpraesident-wiedergewaehlt-a-6f36381a-59f5-47eb-9ae8-d3af0c9deea3|title=Wüst re-elected Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia|date=28 June 2022|language=de|website=Der Spiegel}}
Election date
The Landtag is elected for five years, with its term commencing when the new Landtag first meets. Elections must take place in the last three months of the legislative period.{{cite web|url=https://recht.nrw.de/lmi/owa/br_text_anzeigen?v_id=2320020927105939563|title=Constitution of the State of North Rhine-Westphalia |access-date=12 May 2021 |website=Recht.nrw.de}}
Electoral system
The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 128 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 53 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the remaining seats in a way that achieves proportionality overall. The minimum size of the Landtag is 181 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are ineligible to receive seats.{{cite web|url=https://recht.nrw.de/lmi/owa/br_text_anzeigen?v_id=3920040121111940779|title=State Election Law|access-date=12 May 2021|website=Recht.nrw.de}}
Background
{{mainarticle|2017 North Rhine-Westphalia state election}}
In the previous election held on 14 May 2017, the CDU became the largest party with 33.0% of votes cast, an increase of seven percentage points. The SPD lost eight points and placed second with 31.2% of votes. The FDP won 12.6% (+4.0 pp), and the Greens fell to 6.4% (–4.9 pp). The AfD contested its first election in North Rhine-Westphalia, winning 7.4%. Other parties were not able to enter parliament, The Left only closely missing the electoral threshold of 5% winning 4.9% (+2.4 pp).
The SPD had led a coalition with the Greens since 2010 (→ cabinets Kraft I und Kraft II), but this government lost its majority in the election. The CDU subsequently formed a coalition with the FDP, and Armin Laschet became Minister-President (→ Cabinet Laschet).
After unsuccessfully leading the CDU/CSU in the 2021 German federal election, Laschet resigned as Minister-President. Hendrik Wüst was elected by the Landtag as his successor on 27 October 2021.{{cite web|url=https://www.dw.com/en/germany-hendrik-w%C3%BCst-to-take-helm-of-most-populous-state/a-59640630|title=Germany: Hendrik Wüst to take helm of most populous state |date=27 October 2021 |website=Deutsche Welle}}
Parties
The table below lists parties represented in the 17th Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia.
| class="wikitable"
! rowspan=2 colspan=3| Name ! rowspan=2| Ideology ! rowspan=2| Lead ! rowspan=2| Leader(s) ! colspan=2| 2017 result |
| Votes (%)
! Seats |
|---|
| bgcolor={{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}} |
| align=center| CDU | Christian Democratic Union of Germany | Hendrik Wüst | align=center| 33.0% | {{Composition bar|72|199|{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}}}} |
| bgcolor={{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}} |
| align=center| SPD | Social Democratic Party of Germany | Thomas Kutschaty | align=center| 31.2% | {{Composition bar|69|199|{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}}}} |
| bgcolor={{party color|Free Democratic Party (Germany)}} |
| align=center| FDP | Free Democratic Party | Joachim Stamp | Joachim Stamp | align=center| 12.6% | {{Composition bar|28|199|{{party color|Free Democratic Party (Germany)}}}} |
| bgcolor={{party color|Alternative for Germany}} |
| align=center| AfD | Alternative for Germany | align=center| 7.4% | {{Composition bar|16|199|{{party color|Alternative for Germany}}}} |
| bgcolor={{party color|Alliance 90/The Greens}} |
| align=center| Grüne | Alliance 90/The Greens | Felix Banaszak | align=center| 6.4% | {{Composition bar|14|199|{{party color|Alliance 90/The Greens}}}} |
Opinion polling
=Graphical summary=
{{wide image|File:Opinion polls North Rhine-Westphalia 2022.svg|1000px|Local regression of polls conducted.}}
=Party polling=
| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center;font-size:90%;line-height:14px;" |
| style="height:40px;"
! style="width:150px;" rowspan="2"| Polling firm ! style="width:125px;" rowspan="2"| Fieldwork date ! style="width:35px;" rowspan="2"| Sample ! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| CDU ! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| SPD ! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| FDP ! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| AfD ! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| Grüne ! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| Linke ! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;" rowspan="2"| Others ! style="width:30px;" rowspan="2"| Lead |
| style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}};"| ! style="background:{{party color|Free Democratic Party (Germany)}};"| ! style="background:{{party color|Alternative for Germany}};"| ! style="background:{{party color|Alliance 90/The Greens}};"| ! style="background:{{party color|The Left (Germany)}};"| |
|---|
| style="background:#E9E9E9;"
| 2022 state election | data-sort-value="2022-05-15"| 15 May 2022 | – | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 35.7 | 26.7 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 18.2 | 2.1 | 6.1 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 9.0 |
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2022/05/13/nrw-cdu-setzt-sich-ab-kutschaty-ueberholt-wuest/ Wahlkreisprognose]
|12–13 May 2022 |1,652 | {{Party shading/CDU}}|33 |28.5 |6 |6.5 |16.5 |3 |6.5 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|4.5 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Forschungsgruppe Wahlen]
|9–12 May 2022 |2,254 | {{Party shading/CDU}}|32 |29 |6 |7 |17 |3 |6 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|3 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm YouGov]
|6–12 May 2022 |1,046 | {{Party shading/CDU}}|31 |28 |10 |7 |15 |4 |5 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|3 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm INSA]
|9–10 May 2022 |1,000 | {{Party shading/CDU}}|32 | 28 |8 |7 |16 |3 |6 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|4 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm INSA]
|2–9 May 2022 |1,000 | {{Party shading/CDU}}|31 | 29 |8 |7 |16 |3 |6 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|2 |
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2022/05/06/nrw-platz-eins-weiter-offen/ Wahlkreisprognose]
|5–6 May 2022 |2,127 | {{Party shading/CDU}}|30 |29.5 |9 |7 |16.5 |2.5 |5.5 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|0.5 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Forschungsgruppe Wahlen]
|3–5 May 2022 |1,026 | {{Party shading/CDU}}|30 |28 |7 |7 |18 |3 |7 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|2 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Infratest dimap]
|2–4 May 2022 |1,537 | {{Party shading/CDU}}|30 |28 |8 |8 |16 |3 |7 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|2 |
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2022/05/02/nrw-spd-und-cdu-praktisch-gleichauf-gruene-und-fdp-legen-zu/ Wahlkreisprognose]
|1 May 2022 |1,853 |30.5 | {{Party shading/SPD}}|31 |9 |6 |16.5 |2.5 |4.5 | style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|0.5 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Forsa]
|19–26 Apr 2022 |2,006 | {{Party shading/CDU}}|32 |28 |7 |6 |17 |3 |7 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|4 |
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2022/04/22/nrw-cdu-deutlich-erholt-und-rueckt-an-spd-ran/ Wahlkreisprognose]
|20–22 Apr 2022 |1,445 |31 | {{Party shading/SPD}}|31.5 |6.5 |7.5 |15 |2.5 |6 | style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|0.5 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Infratest dimap]
|19–21 Apr 2022 |1,164 | {{Party shading/CDU}}|31 |30 |8 |7 |16 |3 |5 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|1 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm INSA]
|11–13 Apr 2022 |1,000 |29 | {{Party shading/SPD}}|31 |10 |7 |14 |4 |5 | style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|2 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Forsa]
|4–11 Apr 2022 |1,821 | {{Party shading/CDU}}|30 | {{Party shading/SPD}}|30 |8 |6 |18 |2 |6 |Tie |
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2022/04/09/nrw-spd-vergroessert-abstand-daempfer-fuer-cdu/ Wahlkreisprognose]
|8–9 Apr 2022 |1,230 |27.5 | {{Party shading/SPD}}|33 |7.5 |6 |17.5 |3 |5.5 | style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|5.5 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm INSA]
|28 Mar–4 Apr 2022 |1,000 |28 | {{Party shading/SPD}}|30 |10 |7 |15 |4 |6 | style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|2 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Infratest dimap]
|29–31 Mar 2022 |1,182 | {{Party shading/CDU}}|31 |30 |8 |7 |15 |4 |5 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|1 |
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2022/03/14/nrw-spd-cdu-und-gruene-mit-zuwaechsen/ Wahlkreisprognose]
|11–13 Mar 2022 |1,100 |30.5 | {{Party shading/SPD}}|31 |9.5 |5 |15.5 |2.5 |5.5 | style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|0.5 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Forsa]
|2–9 Mar 2022 |2,006 | {{Party shading/CDU}}|32 |27 |8 |6 |17 |3 |7 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|5 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm INSA]
|15–17 Feb 2022 |1,000 |27 | {{Party shading/SPD}}|29 |12 |8 |14 |4 |6 | style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|2 |
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2022/02/17/nrw-spd-wieder-knapp-vor-cdu/ Wahlkreisprognose]
|13–17 Feb 2022 |1,874 |29 | {{Party shading/SPD}}|30 |10 |8 |13.5 |4 |5.5 | style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|1 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Forsa]
|26 Jan–2 Feb 2022 |2,006 | {{Party shading/CDU}}|29 |27 |9 |7 |18 |4 |6 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|2 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm INSA]
|24 Jan–2 Feb 2022 |2,000 |26 | {{Party shading/SPD}}|28 |12 |8 |14 |4 |8 | style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|2 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Infratest dimap]
|24–27 Jan 2022 |1,160 | {{Party shading/CDU}}|28 | {{Party shading/SPD}}|28 |10 |8 |17 |3 |6 |Tie |
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2021/12/22/nrw-cdu-wieder-knapp-vorn-spd-unveraendert-gruene-und-fdp-verlieren-leicht/ Wahlkreisprognose]
|19–20 Jan 2022 |1,230 | {{Party shading/CDU}}|30 |27 |11 |9 |13.5 |4 |5.5 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"|3 |
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2021/12/22/nrw-cdu-wieder-knapp-vorn-spd-unveraendert-gruene-und-fdp-verlieren-leicht/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2021-12-20"| 12–20 Dec 2021 | 1,210 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 29 | 28 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 6 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 1 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Forsa]
| data-sort-value="2021-12-07"| 26 Nov–7 Dec 2021 | 2,009 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 27 | {{Party shading/SPD}}| 27 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 6 | Tie |
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2021/11/28/nrw-kutschaty-und-wuest-bei-direktwahl-fast-gleichauf-spd-legt-bei-direktmandaten-zu/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2021-11-28"| 24–28 Nov 2021 | 1,400 | 25 | {{Party shading/SPD}}| 28 | 13.5 | 8.5 | 16 | 4 | 5 | style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 3 |
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/trends-in-nrw/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2021-11-16"| 11–16 Nov 2021 | 1,004 | 27 | {{Party shading/SPD}}| 29 | 12 | 7 | 16.5 | 3.5 | 5 | style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 2 |
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/trends-in-nrw/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2021-10-31"| 26–31 Oct 2021 | 1,009 | 27 | {{Party shading/SPD}}| 30 | 14 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 5 | style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 3 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Infratest dimap]
| data-sort-value="2021-10-21"| 18–21 Oct 2021 | 1,172 | 22 | {{Party shading/SPD}}| 31 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 3 | 7 | style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 9 |
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/trends-in-nrw/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2021-10-19"| 16–19 Oct 2021 | 1,320 | 22 | {{Party shading/SPD}}| 30 | 16 | 6 | 16.5 | 2.5 | 7 | style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 8 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm INSA]
| data-sort-value="2021-10-12"| 4–10 Oct 2021 | 1,000 | 20 | {{Party shading/SPD}}| 33 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 7 | style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 13 |
| style="background:#E5E5F5;font-style:italic;"
| data-sort-value="2021-09-26"| 26 Sep 2021 | – | 26.0 | {{Party shading/SPD}}| 29.1 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 16.1 | 3.7 | 6.5 | style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 3.1 |
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2021/08/09/nrw-cdu-mit-herben-verlusten-plus-fuer-gruene-spd-und-fdp/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2021-08-09"| 1–9 Aug 2021 | – | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 25 | 24.5 | 12 | 9 | 20 | 4.5 | 5 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 0.5 |
| [https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/2021/07/16/nrw-cdu-mit-weitem-abstand-vorn-spd-unveraendert-fdp-legt-zu/ Wahlkreisprognose]
| data-sort-value="2021-07-15"| 8–15 Jul 2021 | – | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 30 | 23.5 | 11 | 8.5 | 18 | 4 | 5 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 6.5 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Forsa]
| data-sort-value="2021-05-19"| 10–17 May 2021 | 1,058 | 25 | 19 | 12 | 7 | {{Party shading/Grüne}}| 26 | 4 | 7 | style="background:{{party color|Alliance 90/The Greens}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 1 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm INSA]
| data-sort-value="2021-05-11"| 3–10 May 2021 | 2,014 | 25 | 20 | 11 | 9 | {{Party shading/Grüne}}| 26 | 4.5 | 4.5 | style="background:{{party color|Alliance 90/The Greens}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 1 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Infratest dimap]
| data-sort-value="2021-04-11"| 6–8 Apr 2021 | 1,197 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 28 | 18 | 11 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 6 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 2 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Infratest dimap]
| data-sort-value="2021-01-31"| 25–28 Jan 2021 | 1,000 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 37 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 5 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 13 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm INSA]
| data-sort-value="2020-10-31"| 22–28 Oct 2020 | 1,008 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 33 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 5 | 4 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 10 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Infratest dimap]
| data-sort-value="2020-09-02"| 24–29 Aug 2020 | 1,002 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 34 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 4 | 5 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 12 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Infratest dimap]
| data-sort-value="2020-06-14"| 8–9 Jun 2020 | 1,001 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 37 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 4 | 5 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 17 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Infratest dimap]
| data-sort-value="2020-04-19"| 14–16 Apr 2020 | 1,003 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 40 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 4 | 4 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 20 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Forsa]
| data-sort-value="2020-04-10"| 6–8 Apr 2020 | 1,084 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 39 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 6 | 6 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 19 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Infratest dimap]
| data-sort-value="2019-11-03"| 24–29 Oct 2019 | 1,001 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 32 | 20 | 8 | 7 | 23 | 6 | 4 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 9 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Mentefactum]
| data-sort-value="2019-11-02"| 14–21 Oct 2019 | 1,003 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 31 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 21 | 5 | 4 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 10 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Forsa]
| data-sort-value="2019-08-17"| 1–16 Aug 2019 | 1,505 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 29 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 24 | 5 | 6 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 5 |
| style="background:#E5E5F5;font-style:italic;"
| data-sort-value="2019-05-26"| 26 May 2019 | – | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 27.9 | 19.2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 23.2 | 4.2 | 10.3 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 5.7 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Infratest dimap]
| data-sort-value="2019-02-24"| 19–21 Feb 2019 | 1,001 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 30 | 23 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 6 | 3 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 7 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Mentefactum]
| data-sort-value="2018-11-25"| 19–21 Nov 2018 | 1,004 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 28 | 19 | 11 | 11 | 19 | 8 | 5 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 9 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Infratest dimap]
| data-sort-value="2018-10-07"| 4–6 Oct 2018 | 1,000 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 28 | 21 | 11 | 12 | 17 | 8 | 3 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 7 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm YouGov]
| data-sort-value="2018-09-19"| 6–12 Sep 2018 | 1,049 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 31 | 24 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 5 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 7 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Infratest dimap]
| data-sort-value="2018-05-13"| 7–8 May 2018 | 1,002 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 35 | 22 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 3 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 13 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Forsa]
| data-sort-value="2018-02-25"| 8–22 Feb 2018 | 1,015 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 34 | 24 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 6 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 10 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Infratest dimap]
| data-sort-value="2018-01-14"| 9–11 Jan 2018 | 1,002 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 34 | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 3 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 6 |
| style="background:#E5E5F5;font-style:italic;"
| data-sort-value="2017-09-26"| 24 Sep 2017 | – | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 32.6 | 26.0 | 13.1 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 3.8 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 6.6 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm YouGov]
| data-sort-value="2017-09-12"| 1–8 Sep 2017 | 1,048 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 35 | 30 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 3 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 5 |
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm Infratest dimap]
| data-sort-value="2017-09-03"| 29–31 Aug 2017 | 1,000 | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 33 | 30 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 3 |
| style="background:#E9E9E9;"
| [https://www.wahlrecht.de/news/2017/landtagswahl-nordrhein-westfalen-2017.html 2017 state election] | data-sort-value="2017-05-14"| 14 May 2017 | – | {{Party shading/CDU}}| 33.0 | 31.2 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 4.7 | style="background:{{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 1.8 |
Results
| class=wikitable style="text-align:right"
| align=center colspan=10| File:2022 North Rhine-Westphalia state election - composition chart.svg |
| rowspan=2 colspan=2| Party
! colspan=3| Constituency ! colspan=3| List ! rowspan=2| Total ! rowspan=2| +/– |
|---|
| Votes
! % ! Seats ! Votes ! % ! Swing |
| bgcolor={{party color|Christian Democratic Union of Germany}}|
| align=left| Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) | 2,607,596 | 36.6 | 76 | 2,552,276 | 35.7 | {{increase}} 2.8 | 76 | {{increase}} 4 |
| bgcolor={{party color|Social Democratic Party of Germany}}|
| align=left| Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) | 2,092,933 | 29.4 | 45 | 1,905,002 | 26.7 | {{decrease}} 4.6 | 56 | {{decrease}} 13 |
| bgcolor={{party color|Alliance 90/The Greens}}|
| align=left| Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) | 1,269,804 | 17.8 | 7 | 1,299,821 | 18.2 | {{increase}} 11.8 | 39 | {{increase}} 25 |
| bgcolor={{party color|Free Democratic Party (Germany)}}|
| align=left| Free Democratic Party (FDP) | 390,062 | 5.5 | 0 | 418,460 | 5.9 | {{decrease}} 6.7 | 12 | {{decrease}} 16 |
| bgcolor={{party color|Alternative for Germany}}|
| align=left| Alternative for Germany (AfD) | 368,271 | 5.2 | 0 | 388,768 | 5.4 | {{decrease}} 1.9 | 12 | {{decrease}} 4 |
| colspan=10 bgcolor=lightgrey| |
| bgcolor={{party color|The Left (Germany)}}|
| align=left| The Left (DIE LINKE) | 162,005 | 2.3 | 0 | 146,634 | 2.1 | {{decrease}} 2.8 | 0 | ±0 |
| bgcolor={{party color|Die PARTEI}}|
| align=left| Die PARTEI | 82,699 | 1.2 | 0 | 76,006 | 1.1 | {{increase}} 0.4 | 0 | ±0 |
| bgcolor={{party color|Human Environment Animal Protection Party}}|
| align=left| Human Environment Animal Protection Party (Tierschutzpartei) | 7,488 | 0.1 | 0 | 75,811 | 1.1 | New | 0 | New |
| bgcolor={{party color|Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany}}|
| align=left| Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany (dieBasis) | 55,292 | 0.8 | 0 | 60,084 | 0.8 | New | 0 | New |
| bgcolor={{party color|Free Voters}}|
| align=left| Free Voters (FW) | 34,886 | 0.5 | 0 | 49,985 | 0.7 | {{increase}} 0.3 | 0 | ±0 |
| bgcolor={{party color|Volt Germany}}|
| align=left| Volt Germany (Volt) | 27,784 | 0.4 | 0 | 45,177 | 0.6 | New | 0 | New |
| bgcolor={{party color|Pirate Party Germany}}|
| align=left| Pirate Party Germany (Piraten) | 4,501 | 0.1 | 0 | 19,248 | 0.3 | {{decrease}} 0.7 | 0 | ±0 |
| bgcolor={{party color|Team Todenhöfer}}|
| align=left| Team Todenhöfer | 3,533 | 0.0 | 0 | 14,799 | 0.2 | New | 0 | New |
| bgcolor={{party color|Family Party of Germany}}|
| align=left| Family Party of Germany (FAMILIE) | 1,462 | 0.0 | 0 | 14,684 | 0.2 | {{increase}} 0.2 | 0 | ±0 |
| bgcolor={{party color|Ecological Democratic Party}}|
| align=left| Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP) | – | – | – | 9,664 | 0.1 | {{steady}} 0.0 | 0 | ±0 |
| | align=left| European Party Love (LIEBE)
| 739 | 0.0 | 0 | 8,235 | 0.1 | New | 0 | New |
| bgcolor={{party color|Party of Humanists}}|
| align=left| The Humanists (Die Humanisten) | 280 | 0.0 | 0 | 8,211 | 0.1 | New | 0 | New |
| bgcolor={{party color|Partei für Gesundheitsforschung}}|
| align=left| Party for Health Research (Gesundheitsforschung) | – | – | – | 6,833 | 0.1 | {{steady}} 0.0 | 0 | ±0 |
| | align=left| Party of Progress (PdF)
| – | – | – | 6,154 | 0.1 | New | 0 | New |
| | align=left| Democracy by Referendum (Volksabstimmung)
| 1,038 | 0.0 | 0 | 5,606 | 0.1 | {{steady}} 0.0 | 0 | ±0 |
| bgcolor={{party color|Die Urbane. Eine HipHop Partei}}|
| align=left| The Urbans. A HipHop Party (Die Urbane) | 399 | 0.0 | 0 | 5,201 | 0.1 | New | 0 | New |
| bgcolor={{party color|Alliance for Innovation and Justice}}|
| align=left| Alliance for Innovation and Justice (BIG) | – | – | – | 4,222 | 0.1 | {{decrease}} 0.1 | 0 | ±0 |
| bgcolor={{party color|Centre Party (Germany, 1945)}}|
| align=left| Centre Party (ZENTRUM) | 1,067 | 0.0 | 0 | 4,162 | 0.1 | {{steady}} 0.0 | 0 | ±0 |
| | align=left| German Sports Party (DSP)
| – | – | – | 3,839 | 0.1 | New | 0 | New |
| bgcolor={{party color|Marxist–Leninist Party of Germany}}|
| align=left| Marxist–Leninist Party of Germany (MLPD) | 3,544 | 0.0 | 0 | 3,354 | 0.0 | {{decrease}} 0.1 | 0 | ±0 |
| bgcolor={{party color|German Communist Party}}|
| align=left| German Communist Party (DKP) | 1,681 | 0.0 | 0 | 3,049 | 0.0 | {{steady}} 0.0 | 0 | ±0 |
| bgcolor={{party color|The Violets (political party)}}|
| align=left| The Violets (VIOLETTEN) | 631 | 0.0 | 0 | 2,990 | 0.0 | {{decrease}} 0.1 | 0 | ±0 |
| | align=left| neo. Wellbeing for all (neo)
| – | – | – | 2,192 | 0.0 | New | 0 | New |
| bgcolor={{party color|Alliance C – Christians for Germany}}|
| align=left| Alliance C – Christians for Germany (Bündnis C) | 476 | 0.0 | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | New |
| | align=left| The Independents (UNABHÄNGIGE)
| 389 | 0.0 | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | New |
| bgcolor={{party color|Liberal Democrats (Germany)}}|
| align=left| Liberal Democrats (LD) | 185 | 0.0 | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | ±0 |
| | align=left| Humane World (MENSCHLICHE WELT)
| 158 | 0.0 | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | New |
| | align=left| Ecological Left (ÖkoLinX)
| 134 | 0.0 | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | New |
| | align=left| Modern Social Party (MSP)
| 85 | 0.0 | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | New |
| bgcolor={{party color|Independent politician}}|
| align=left| Independents | 11,435 | 0.2 | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | ±0 |
| colspan=2| Valid
! 7,130,557 ! 99.0 ! ! 7,146,831 ! 99.3 ! colspan=3| |
| colspan=2 align=center| Invalid
| 69,736 | 1.0 | | 53,462 | 0.7 | colspan=3| |
| colspan=2| Total
! 7,200,293 ! 100.0 ! 128 ! 7,200,293 ! 100.0 ! ! 195 ! –4 |
| colspan=2 align=center| Registered voters/turnout
| 12,965,858 | 55.5 | | 12,965,858 | 55.5 | {{decrease}} 9.6 | colspan=2| |
| colspan=10| Source: [https://www.wahlergebnisse.nrw/landtagswahlen/2022/aktuell/a000lw2200.shtml State Returning Officer] |
File:Nordrhein-Westfalen Zweitstimmen CDU 2022.svg|CDU vote
File:Nordrhein-Westfalen Zweitstimmen AfD 2022.svg|AfD vote
File:Nordrhein-Westfalen Zweitstimmen Linke 2022.svg|Linke vote
File:Nordrhein-Westfalen Zweitstimmen SPD 2022.svg|SPD vote
File:Nordrhein-Westfalen Zweitstimmen Grüne 2022.svg|Green vote
File:Nordrhein-Westfalen Zweitstimmen FDP 2022.svg|FDP vote
Analysis
The results of the election were widely interpreted in the German press as a rebuke of German chancellor Olaf Scholz's and the SPD's response to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the initial days after the Russian invasion, Scholz promised greater military spending and aid to Ukraine but in the following months was seen as indecisive about exporting heavy weapons to Ukraine. Germany has also been less willing than other European nations to boycott Russian energy imports. North Rhine-Westphalia is located in the industrial heartland of Germany and has traditionally been the base of support for the SPD. The Greens largely benefited from the collapse in support for the SPD, as many of their policies on Ukraine are more popular with the German public.{{cite news |last=Schuetze |first=Christopher F. |date=15 May 2022 |title=In a Setback for Scholz, Conservatives Keep Western State in Germany |newspaper=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/15/world/europe/germany-elections-scholz.html |access-date=16 May 2022 |issn=0362-4331}}{{cite web | last= Von Der Burchard |first= Hans|date=15 May 2022 |title=Scholz’s SPD gets another shellacking in key German state election |url=https://www.politico.eu/article/conservatives-and-greens-winners-in-key-german-state-election/ |access-date=16 May 2022 |website=Politico}}
The FDP's result was interpreted as coming from their federal ministers enjoying far less popularity than those of the Greens, popular Christian Lindner not running again, and many 2017 FDP voters migrating to the CDU to prevent Kutschaty from becoming Minister-President.{{citation needed|date=May 2022}}
Government formation
Since the incumbent coalition of the CDU and FDP lost its majority in the election, the formation of a new government was necessary. The Greens were considered to hold the balance of power, able to enter into coalition either with the CDU or with the SPD and FDP. They held separate talks with the CDU and SPD. The FDP declined to participate, believing a CDU–Green government was inevitable.{{cite web|url=https://www.ruhrnachrichten.de/regionales/landtagswahl-nrw-koalition-spd-gruene-w1756391-2000532886/|title=After the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: SPD and Greens meet for talks|date=20 May 2022|language=de|website=Ruhr Nachrichten}} The Greens continued exploratory talks with the CDU and began formal coalition negotiations on 31 May. In a draft agreement, the two sides proposed transitioning North Rhine-Westphalia to climate neutrality, phasing out coal by 2030, and building 1,000 additional wind turbines over five years. They also agreed to hire 10,000 additional teachers and ensure equal pay for teachers regardless of the type of school they are employed in.{{cite web|url=https://www.wz.de/nrw/nrw-gruene-und-cdu-haben-die-koalitionsverhandlungen-aufgenommen_aid-70629385|title=NRW: Greens and CDU have started coalition negotiations|date=31 May 2022|language=de|website=Westdeutsche Zeitung}} On 10 June, the two parties announced plans to finalise and approve a coalition agreement by 25 June, with Wüst to be re-elected as Minister-President on 28 June.{{cite web|url=https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2022-06/cdu-und-gruene-einigen-sich-auf-koalition-in-nrw|title=CDU and Greens agree on coalition in NRW|date=10 June 2022|language=de|website=Die Zeit}}
The CDU and Greens presented their coalition agreement on 23 June, committing to the policies laid out in the previous draft paper, as well as growing police hires from 2,700 to 3,000, expanding public transport by aiming for a 60% increase in the number of buses and trains by 2030, and mandating the installation of solar energy systems in new private constructions from 2025. They also agreed to phase out regulations banning wind turbines from being built within 1,000 metres of residences. The cabinet would comprise the Minister-President, seven CDU ministers, and four Greens.{{cite web|url=https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/koalitionsvertrag-nrw-cdu-gruene-101.html|title=CDU and Greens come together in North Rhine-Westphalia|date=23 June 2022|language=de|website=Tagesschau}} The coalition agreement was approved near-unanimously by a CDU conference on 25 June.{{cite web|url=https://www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/nrw-cdu-stimmt-fuer-koalition-mit-den-gruenen-100.html|title=NRW CDU votes for coalition with the Greens|date=25 June 2022|language=de|website=Westdeutscher Rundfunk}} The same day, it passed the Greens congress with 85%. There were objections from members who criticised the proposed separation of the agriculture portfolio from the environment ministry. The state Green Youth rejected the prospect of coalition with the CDU outright, stating they could not sufficiently address pressing issues such as climate change, affordability, and rent and housing.{{cite web|url=https://www.tagesschau.de/regional/nordrheinwestfalen/gruene-nrw-koalition-101.html|title=Greens say yes to the coalition with the CDU|date=25 June 2022|language=de|website=Tagesschau}}
Wüst was re-elected as Minister-President by the Landtag on 28 June, winning 106 votes out of 180 cast, plus one abstention. Fourteen deputies were absent, including four from the CDU and one from the Greens.
References
{{reflist}}
{{reflist|group=lower-alpha}}{{2022 elections in Germany}}{{North Rhine-Westphalia state election}}