2022 Texas Senate election
{{Short description|none}}
{{Use mdy dates|date=September 2023}}
{{Infobox election
| election_name = 2022 Texas Senate election
| country = Texas
| type = legislative
| previous_election = 2020 Texas Senate election
| previous_year = 2020
| next_election = 2024 Texas Senate election
| next_year = 2024
| seats_for_election = All of the 31 seats in the Texas Senate
| majority_seats = 16
| election_date = November 8, 2022
| image1 = Larry Taylor (Texas politician).png
| leader1 = Larry Taylor
| party1 = Republican Party of Texas
| leaders_seat1 = {{nowrap|11th–Friendswood}}
| last_election1 = 18 seats, 53.28%
| seats_before1 = 18
| seats_needed1 = {{steady}}
| seats1 = 19
| seat_change1 = {{increase}} 1
| popular_vote1 = 2,948,643
| percentage1 = 54.06%
| swing1 = {{increase}} 0.78%
| image2 = Texas State Senator Carol Alvarado.png
| leader2 = Carol Alvarado
| party2 = Texas Democratic Party
| leaders_seat2 = {{nowrap|6th–Houston}}
| last_election2 = 13 seats, 44.59%
| seats_before2 = 13
| seats_needed2 = {{increase}} 3
| seats2 = 12
| seat_change2 = {{decrease}} 1
| popular_vote2 = 2,287,700
| percentage2 = 41.94%
| swing2 = {{decrease}} 2.65%
| map_image = {{switcher |320px |Results by seat gains|320px |Results by vote share|default=1}}
| map_size =
| map_caption = {{legend0|#92C5DE|Democratic hold}}
{{legend0|#F48882|Republican hold}} {{legend0|#CA0120|Republican gain}}
Republican: {{legend0|#e27f7f|50–60%}} {{legend0|#d75d5d|60–70%}} {{legend0|#d72f30|70–80%}} {{legend0|#a80000|≥90%}}
Democratic: {{legend0|#7996e2|50–60%}} {{legend0|#6674de|60–70%}} {{legend0|#3933e5|80–90%}} {{legend0|#0d0596|≥90%}}
}}
{{Elections in Texas}}
The 2022 Texas Senate elections were held on November 8, 2022.
Under the provisions of the Constitution of Texas, all 31 senate districts across the state of Texas were up for re-election, as the election was the first after the decennial United States Census. Numerous other federal, state, and local elections were also held on this date. The winners of this election served in the 88th Texas Legislature, with seats apportioned among the 2020 United States census. Republicans had held a majority in the Texas Senate since January 14, 1997, as a result of the 1996 elections.
Retirements
As of April 2022, six state senators, including four Republicans and two Democrats, decided to retire, one of whom sought another office.
=Republicans=
- District 11: Larry Taylor retired.{{Cite news|last=Svitek|first=Patrick|date=November 30, 2021|title=Longtime state Sen. Larry Taylor, best known for his work on education issues, says he won't run for reelection|work=The Texas Tribune|url=https://www.texastribune.org/2021/11/30/larry-taylor-texas-senate-reelection/|access-date=November 30, 2021}}
- District 12: Jane Nelson retired.{{cite news |last=Garrett |first=Robert |title=Veteran Denton County GOP lawmaker Jane Nelson will not seek 11th term in Texas Senate |url=https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/07/05/veteran-denton-county-gop-lawmaker-jane-nelson-will-not-seek-11th-term-in-texas-senate/|access-date=July 6, 2021 |work=The Dallas Morning News|date=July 5, 2021}}
- District 24: Dawn Buckingham retired to run for Texas Land Commissioner.{{cite news |last=Lindell |first=Chuck |title=State Sen. Dawn Buckingham to run for Texas land commissioner |url=https://www.statesman.com/story/news/2021/06/07/sen-dawn-buckingham-run-land-commissioner/7591968002/ |access-date=June 9, 2021 |work=Austin American-Statesman |date=June 7, 2021}}
- District 31: Kel Seliger retired.{{Cite news|last=Barragán|first=James|date=October 20, 2021|title=Texas state Sen. Kel Seliger, a Republican willing to buck his party leadership, will not seek reelection|work=The Texas Tribune|url=https://www.texastribune.org/2021/10/20/texas-senate-ken-seliger/|url-status=live|access-date=October 22, 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211020232034/https://www.texastribune.org/2021/10/20/texas-senate-ken-seliger/|archive-date=October 20, 2021}}
=Democrats=
- District 10: Beverly Powell retired.{{Cite news |last=Barragán |first=James |date=April 6, 2022 |title="Unwinnable race": State Sen. Beverly Powell of Burleson ends reelection bid, citing redrawn political map |work=The Texas Tribune |url=https://www.texastribune.org/2022/04/06/beverly-powell-reelection-redistricting/ |url-status=live |access-date=April 9, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220409060402/https://www.texastribune.org/2022/04/06/beverly-powell-reelection-redistricting/ |archive-date=April 9, 2022}}
- District 27: Eddie Lucio Jr. retired.{{cite news |last=Bova |first=Gus |title=The Texas Senate's Most Conservative Democrat Is Retiring |url=https://www.texasobserver.org/the-texas-senates-most-conservative-democrat-is-retiring/|access-date=November 18, 2021 |work=Texas Observer|date=November 16, 2021}}
Predictions
Redistricting greatly reduced the number of competitive seats in the state, making it almost certain that the chamber would remain in Republican hands.
= Statewide =
class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
!Source !Ranking !As of |
align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball{{cite web|last=Jacobson|first=Louis|title=The Battle for State Legislatures|url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-battle-for-the-state-legislatures/|date=May 19, 2022|access-date=May 19, 2022}}
|{{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} | May 19, 2022 |
CNalysis
|{{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |Nov. 7, 2022 |
= Competitive districts =
class="wikitable sortable"
!Incumbent !CNalysis{{Cite web |title=22 TX Forecast |url=https://projects.cnalysis.com/21-22/state-legislative/texas#upper |access-date=2024-08-12 |website=projects.cnalysis.com}} !Result |
19th
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} |Roland Gutierrez | data-sort-value="-55.81" {{Party shading/Democratic}} |55.81% D |{{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} | data-sort-value="-55.39" {{Party shading/Democratic}} |55.39% D |
---|
27th
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} |Eddie Lucio Jr. {{small|(retiring)}} | data-sort-value="-51.75" {{Party shading/Democratic}} |51.75% D |{{USRaceRating|Lean|R|Flip}} | data-sort-value="-50.19" {{Party shading/Democratic}} |50.19% D |
Results summary
class="wikitable"
|+ Summary of the November 8, 2022 Texas Senate election results |
colspan="15" style="text-align:center;"|File:Texas_Senate_2022.svg |
rowspan="2" colspan="2" | Party
! rowspan="2" | Candidates ! colspan="2" | Votes ! colspan="4" | Seats |
---|
{{Abbr|No.|Number}}
! % ! Before ! Won ! After ! +/– |
style="background-color:{{party color|Republican Party (United States)}}" |
| style="text-align:right;"| 27 | style="text-align:right;"| 2,948,643 | style="text-align:right;"| 54.06 | style="text-align:right;"| 18 | style="text-align:right;"| 19 | style="text-align:right;"| 19 | style="text-align:right;"| {{Increase}} 1 |
style="background-color:{{party color|Democratic Party (United States)}}" |
| style="text-align:right;"| 22 | style="text-align:right;"| 2,287,700 | style="text-align:right;"| 41.94 | style="text-align:right;"| 13 | style="text-align:right;"| 12 | style="text-align:right;"| 12 | style="text-align:right;"| {{Decrease}} 1 |
style="background-color:{{party color|Libertarian Party (United States)}}" |
| style="text-align:right;"| 6 | style="text-align:right;"| 217,910 | style="text-align:right;"| 4.00 | style="text-align:right;"| 0 | style="text-align:right;"| 0 | style="text-align:right;"| 0 | style="text-align:right;"| {{Steady}} |
colspan="3" style="text-align:left;"| Total
| style="text-align:right;"| 5,454,253 | style="text-align:right;"| 100.00 | style="text-align:right;"| 31 | style="text-align:right;"| 31 | style="text-align:right;"| 31 | style="text-align:right;"| {{Steady}} |
colspan="10"| Source: |
{{bar box
| title=Popular vote
| titlebar=#ddd
| width=600px
| barwidth=410px
| bars=
{{bar percent|Republican|{{party color|Republican Party (United States)}}|54.06}}
{{bar percent|Democratic|{{party color|Democratic Party (United States)}}|41.94}}
{{bar percent|Libertarian|{{party color|Libertarian Party (United States)}}|4.00}}
}}
{{bar box
| title=Senate seats won
| titlebar=#ddd
| width=600px
| barwidth=410px
| bars=
{{bar percent|Republican|{{party color|Republican Party (United States)}}|61.29}}
{{bar percent|Democratic|{{party color|Democratic Party (United States)}}|38.71}}
}}
Close races
class="wikitable sortable" |
District
! Winner ! Margin |
---|
District 27
| data-sort-value=1 {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | 0.38% |
By district
class="wikitable sortable" |
rowspan=2 | District
! colspan=4 | Incumbent ! rowspan=2 class="unsortable" | Candidates{{efn|name=redistricting|Declared candidates may seek election from other district, subject to redistricting. Some districts may have no incumbents, while some other may have multiple incumbents due to redistricting.}} |
---|
valign=bottom
! Member ! Party ! First ! Status |
1
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | 2016 |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
2
| Bob Hall | {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | 2014 |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
3
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | 2006 |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
4
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
5
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | 2012 |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
6
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
7
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | 2014 |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
8
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | 2018 |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
9
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | 2012 |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
10
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | 2018 |{{Party shading/Republican}} | Incumbent retiring | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
11
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | 2012 |{{Party shading/Hold}} | Incumbent retiring | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
12
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | 1992 |{{Party shading/Hold}} | Incumbent retiring | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
13
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | 2016 |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
14
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
15
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | 1982 |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
16
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | 2018 |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
17
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
18
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | 2014 |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
19
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | 2020 |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
20
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | 2002 |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
21
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | 1986 |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
22
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
23
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | 1992 |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
24
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | 2016 |{{Party shading/Hold}} | Incumbent retiring to run for Texas Land Commissioner | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
25
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | 2012 |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
26
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | 2015 (special) |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
27
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | 1990 |{{Party shading/Hold}} | Incumbent retiring{{cite web |last1=Svitek |first1=Patrick |title=Eddie Lucio Jr. to retire after three decades in Texas Senate |url=https://www.texastribune.org/2021/11/03/texas-senate-eddie-lucio/ |website=www.texastribune.com |publisher=The Texas Tribune |access-date=17 November 2021 |date=4 November 2021}} | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
28
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
29
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | 2020 |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
30
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican |Incumbent running | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
31
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | 2004 |{{Party shading/Hold}} | Incumbent retiring | nowrap | {{Plainlist|
}} |
District 27
{{Infobox election
| election_name = 2022 Texas's 27th senate district election
| country = Texas
| type = presidential
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = 2020 Texas Senate election#District 27
| previous_year = 2020
| next_election = 2024 Texas Senate election#District 27
| next_year = 2024
| seats_for_election = Texas's 27th senate district
| image_size = x150px
| image1 = File:Morgan_LaMantia_Open_Congress_Austin_2023.jpg
| nominee1 = Morgan LaMantia
| party1 = Democratic Party (United States)
| popular_vote1 = 88,037
| percentage1 = 50.19%
| image2 = File:3x4.svg
| nominee2 = Adam Hinojosa
| party2 = Republican Party (United States)
| popular_vote2 = 87,378
| percentage2 = 49.81%
| map_image = 2022 Texas Senate District 27 Results.svg
| map_size = 150px
| map_caption = County results
LaMantia: {{legend0|#7996e2|50–60%}} {{legend0|#6674de|60–70%}}
Hinojosa: {{legend0|#e27f7f|50–60%}} {{legend0|#d75d5d|60–70%}} {{legend0|#d72f30|70–80%}}
| title = Texas Senator
| before_election = Eddie Lucio Jr.
| before_party = Democratic Party
| after_election = Morgan LaMantia
| after_party = Democratic Party
}}Incumbent Democrat Eddie Lucio Jr., often considered the most conservative Democrat in the Texas Senate, announced he would not run for re-election in November 2021.{{Cite web |last=Svitek |first=Patrick |date=2021-11-04 |title=Democrat Eddie Lucio Jr., known for voting with Republicans on key issues, to retire after three decades in Texas Senate |url=https://www.texastribune.org/2021/11/03/texas-senate-eddie-lucio/ |access-date=2024-02-13 |website=The Texas Tribune |language=en}}{{Cite web |last=Davila |first=Gaige |date=2021-11-05 |title=Progressives hope Texas State Senator Eddie Lucio Jr.’s retirement signals new era |url=https://www.tpr.org/government-politics/2021-11-04/progressives-hope-texas-state-senator-eddie-lucio-jr-s-retirement-signals-new-era |access-date=2024-02-13 |website=TPR |language=en}} Lucio was the only Democrat to vote in favor of Texas' abortion laws and school voucher legislation, but all three Democrats running to replace him were pro-choice. He endorsed Morgan LaMantia despite her views on abortion, considering her to be the most moderate of the three, and she won the primary in a runoff.{{Cite web |last=Svitek |first=Patrick |date=2022-05-25 |title=Moderate Democrats win two key South Texas runoffs, while another is too close to call |url=https://www.texastribune.org/2022/05/25/texas-runoff-election-south-texas/ |access-date=2024-02-13 |website=The Texas Tribune |language=en}} She faced Republican Adam Hinojosa in the general election, who campaigned as part of a Republican effort to capitalize on Donald Trump's strong performance in the Rio Grande Valley in the 2020 election to flip multiple legislative and congressional seats in the region.{{Cite web |last=Svitek |first=Patrick |date=2022-10-23 |title=Donald Trump energizes South Texas voters ahead of early voting as Republicans predict red "tsunami" |url=https://www.texastribune.org/2022/10/22/donald-trump-election-republicans/ |access-date=2024-02-13 |website=The Texas Tribune |language=en}}
Polling
class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;" |
valign="bottom"
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample ! Margin ! style="width:100px;"| Morgan ! style="width:100px;"| Adam ! Undecided |
style="text-align:left;"|Ragnar Research Partners (R)[https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/345214bb06cec38ad456f12471ff7bd1/AH_TX%20SD%2027_Benchmark_Memo_v1.0_220829.pdf Ragnar Research Partners (R)]{{efn-ua|This poll was sponsored by Hinojosa's campaign|name="Hinojosa"}}
|August 23–25, 2022 |400 (LV) |± 4.9% |38% |{{party shading/Republican}}|43% |19% |
{{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#cff|title=Hypothetical polling|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;" |
valign="bottom"
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample ! Margin ! style="width:100px;"| Generic ! style="width:100px;"| Generic ! Undecided |
style="text-align:left;"|Ragnar Research Partners (R){{efn-ua|name="Hinojosa"}}
|August 23–25, 2022 |400 (LV) |± 4.9% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|46% |41% |12% |
{{hidden end}}
LaMantia won the election by an extremely narrow margin, a result which was not confirmed until after a December recount.{{Cite web |last=Clark |first=Steve |date=2022-11-09 |title=LaMantia edges out Hinojosa: District 27 state Senate race was a squeaker |url=https://myrgv.com/local-news/2022/11/09/lamantia-edges-out-hinojosa-district-27-state-senate-race-was-a-squeaker/ |access-date=2024-02-13 |website=MyRGV.com |language=en-US}}{{Cite web |last=Yañez |first=Alejandra |date=2022-12-14 |title=LaMantia remains winner after recount for Senate District 27 |url=https://www.valleycentral.com/news/local-news/lamantia-remains-winner-after-recount-for-senate-district-27/ |access-date=2024-02-13 |website=KVEO-TV |language=en-US}}{{Election box begin no change|title=Texas's 27th Senate District, 2022}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change|party=Democratic Party (United States)|candidate=Morgan LaMantia|votes=88,037|percentage=50.19%}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change|party=Republican Party (United States)|candidate=Adam Hinojosa|votes=87,378|percentage=49.81%}}
{{Election box total no change|votes=175,415|percentage=100.00%}}
{{Election box hold with party link no change|winner=Texas Democratic Party}}
{{Election box end}}
See also
Notes
{{Notelist}}
Notes
{{notelist}}
Partisan clients
{{notelist-ua}}
References
{{reflist}}
{{Texas elections}}
{{2022 United States elections}}