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2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

{{Short description|none}}

{{for|related races|2024 United States gubernatorial elections}}

{{Use American English|date=January 2025}}

{{Use mdy dates|date=July 2023}}

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

| country = New Hampshire

| type = presidential

| ongoing = no

| previous_election = 2022 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

| previous_year = 2022

| next_election = 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

| next_year = 2026

| election_date = November 5, 2024

| image1 = File:Governor Kelly Ayotte portrait.jpg

| nominee1 = Kelly Ayotte

| party1 = Republican Party (United States)

| popular_vote1 = 436,122

| percentage1 = 53.61%

| image2 = Joyce Craig (cropped).jpg

| nominee2 = Joyce Craig

| party2 = Democratic Party (United States)

| popular_vote2 = 360,149

| percentage2 = 44.27%

| map = {{switcher

|x240px

|County results

|x240px

|Municipality results

|x240px

|Congressional district results}}

| map_caption = Ayotte: {{legend0|#FFB2B2|40–50%}} {{legend0|#E27F7F|50–60%}} {{legend0|#d75d5d|60–70%}} {{legend0|#D72F30|70–80%}} {{legend0|#C21B18|80–90%}}
Craig: {{legend0|#A5B0FF|40–50%}} {{legend0|#7996e2|50–60%}} {{legend0|#6674de|60–70%}} {{legend0|#584cde|70–80%}} {{legend0|#0D0596|>90%}}

| map_size =

| title = Governor

| before_election = Chris Sununu

| before_party = Republican Party (United States)

| after_election = Kelly Ayotte

| after_party = Republican Party (United States)

}}

{{Elections in New Hampshire}}

The 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of New Hampshire. Republican former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte and Democratic former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig sought their first term in office. Ayotte won the election, and succeeded incumbent Republican Chris Sununu, who did not seek election to a fifth term.{{Cite web |date=July 19, 2023 |title=Chris Sununu will not run for re-election for fifth term as New Hampshire governor |url=https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/chris-sununu-new-hampshire-governor-not-running-for-election-2024/ |access-date=July 19, 2023 |website=CBS News |language=en-US}} Along with neighboring Vermont, this race was one of two Republican-held governorships up for election in 2024 in a state Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election.

Primary elections took place on September 10, 2024.{{Cite web |title=2024 State Primary Election Dates |url=https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/2024-state-primary-election-dates |access-date=2023-08-06 |website=NCSL}} Ayotte won the Republican nomination with 63% of the vote over former state senate president Chuck Morse and Craig won the Democratic nomination with 48% of the vote over state executive councilor Cinde Warmington.

Republican Kelly Ayotte won the election by 9.34%, with the state concurrently voting for Kamala Harris in the 2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire. The election was the closest gubernatorial race for a U.S. state in the 2024 cycle.

{{toclimit|3}}

Background

New Hampshire is a Democratic-leaning state in New England, with a pattern of split-ticket voting. Incumbent Republican governor Chris Sununu was narrowly elected in 2016 and easily won re-election in 2020. This was despite Donald Trump losing the state in both 2016 (by 0.37%) and 2020 (by 7.35%). Republican gubernatorial nominee Kelly Ayotte narrowly lost re-election in the 2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire by 0.14%.

This race was widely considered a tossup, due to the incumbent retiring, the state's pattern of ticket splitting, and the concurrent 2024 presidential election.{{Cite web |title=2024 Governor Race ratings |url=https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/governor-race-ratings |access-date=2023-07-24 |website=The Cook Political Report |language=en}}

Republican primary

=Candidates=

==Nominee==

  • Kelly Ayotte, former U.S. senator (2011–2017){{Cite web |date=2024-09-11 |title=Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte wins GOP primary for New Hampshire governor |url=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4872711-new-hampshire-gop-primary-kelly-ayotte/amp/ |access-date=2024-09-11 |website=The Hill |language=en-US}}

====Eliminated in primary====

  • Shaun Fife, farmer{{Cite web |last=Sexton |first=Adam |date=2024-06-05 |title=Republican Shaun Fife files to run for New Hampshire governor |url=https://www.wmur.com/article/republican-shaun-fife-new-hampshire-governor-6524/61008033 |access-date=2024-06-05 |website=WMUR-TV |language=en}}
  • Robert McClory, welder{{Cite web|url=https://www.sos.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt561/files/documents/2024-06/cumulative-filings-6.12.24.pdf|title=Democratic cumulative filing as of 06/12/24|publisher=Office of the Secretary of State – Election Division}}
  • Richard McMenamon, auto repair shop owner and candidate for governor in 2022{{cite news |title=2024 Election Details |url=https://www.sos.nh.gov/2024-election-details |publisher=New Hampshire Secretary of State |date=June 5, 2024}}
  • Chuck Morse, former president of the New Hampshire Senate, former acting governor, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022{{Cite news |last=Tasolides |first=Justin |date=July 19, 2023 |title=N.H. GOP Gov. Sununu says he will not seek fifth term |work=Spectrum News |url=https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/watertown/news/2023/07/19/chris-sununu-gop-new-hampshire |access-date=July 19, 2023}}
  • Frank Staples, transitional living program owner

==Declined==

  • Jeb Bradley, president of the New Hampshire Senate and former U.S. representative for {{ushr|NH|1}}{{cite news |url=https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/04/20/metro/who-will-run-new-hampshire-governor-if-chris-sununu-runs-president/ |title=Who will run for New Hampshire governor if Chris Sununu runs for president?|author=Porter, Steven|date=April 20, 2023|work=Boston Globe}}
  • Scott Brown, former U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa (2017–2020), former U.S. senator from Massachusetts (2010–2013), and nominee for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire in 2014{{cite news |access-date=3 August 2023 |work=Politico |last=Kashinsky |first=Lisa |date=3 August 2023 |url=https://www.politico.com/newsletters/massachusetts-playbook/2023/08/03/scott-brown-isnt-done-yet-00109576 |title=Scott Brown isn’t done yet}}
  • Frank Edelblut, commissioner of the New Hampshire Department of Education, former state representative, and candidate for governor in 2016{{cite news |last=Dawg |first=Jay |date=April 4, 2023 |title=Edelblut Considering A Run For Governor |work=The Pulse of NH |url=https://thepulseofnh.com/news/politics-news/edelblut-considering-a-run-for-governor/}}{{cite news |work=New Hampshire Union Leader |access-date=3 September 2023 |url=https://unionleader.com/opinion/op-eds/frank-edelblut-america-the-beautiful-new-hampshire-the-crown-jewel/article_b05af354-9c99-5e64-8f75-f83c9f422ade.html |title=America the beautiful. New Hampshire the crown jewel. |last=Edelblut |first=Frank |date=3 September 2023 |quote=I have decided that I will not be running in this cycle.}}
  • Chris Sununu, incumbent governor{{Cite web |date=July 19, 2023 |title=Chris Sununu will not run for re-election for fifth term as New Hampshire governor |url=https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/chris-sununu-new-hampshire-governor-not-running-for-election-2024/ |access-date=July 19, 2023 |website=CBS News|language=en-US}} (endorsed Ayotte)

=Endorsements=

{{Endorsements box

|title= Kelly Ayotte

|list=

U.S. senators

  • Judd Gregg, former U.S. senator from New Hampshire (1993–2011){{cite news |last1=Wagner |first1=John |title=Former GOP senator Kelly Ayotte to run for New Hampshire governor |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/24/kelly-ayotte-new-hampshire-governor/ |access-date=July 24, 2023 |work=The Washington Post |date=July 24, 2023}}

Governors

  • Chris Sununu, Governor of New Hampshire (2017–2025){{Cite web |url=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4817036-new-hampshire-governor-sununu-backs-ayotte/amp/ |website=The Hill |title=Sununu backs Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire GOP gubernatorial primary |last=Vakil |first=Caroline |date=August 7, 2024 |access-date=August 7, 2024 |language=en-US}}

State legislators

  • Bill Gannon, state senator from the 23rd district (2016–2018, 2020–present){{Cite web |url=https://www.wcvb.com/article/kelly-ayotte-new-hampshire-governor-republican-candidate/44625702# |website=WCVB-TV 5 |title=Kelly Ayotte announces 2024 campaign for New Hampshire governor |last=Tenser |first=Phil |date=July 24, 2023 |access-date=September 28, 2023 |language=en-US}}
  • 20 state representatives{{Cite web |url=https://manchesterinklink.com/levasseur-manchesters-gop-state-reps-endorse-ayotte/ |title=Levasseur, Manchester’s GOP State Reps, endorse Ayotte |date=September 8, 2023 |access-date=September 28, 2023 |language=en-US |website=Manchester Ink Link |last=Sylvia |first=Andrew}}{{Cite web |url=https://manchesterinklink.com/ayotte-endorsed-by-merrimack-republican-delegation/ |title=Ayotte endorsed by Merrimack Republican delegation |website=Manchester Ink Link |last=Robidoux |first=Carol |date=August 22, 2023 |access-date=September 28, 2023 |language=en-US}}

Individuals

  • Don Bolduc, retired U.S. Army Special Forces brigadier general and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022{{cite web|url=https://nhjournal.com/bolduc-why-im-endorsing-ayotte-for-governor/|title=BOLDUC: Why I’m Endorsing Ayotte for Governor|author=Bolduc, Don|date=June 26, 2024|work=NH Journal}}
  • Rico Petrocelli, Major League Baseball player for the Boston Red Sox{{Cite web |date=2023-11-28 |title=Rico Petrocelli endorses Ayotte |url=https://manchesterinklink.com/rico-petrocelli-endorses-ayotte/ |access-date=2023-11-29 |language=en-US}}

}}

=Fundraising=

class="wikitable sortable"
colspan=4 |Campaign finance reports as of September 4, 2024
style="text-align:center;"

!Candidate

!Raised

!Spent

!Cash on hand

{{party shading/Republican}}|Kelly Ayotte (R)

|$7,301,915

|$5,499,318

|$1,677,858

{{party shading/Republican}}|Chuck Morse (R)

|$1,513,599

|$1,472,846

|$40,753

colspan="4" |Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System{{cite web |title=Candidates and Candidate Committees |url=https://cfs.sos.nh.gov/public/cf/publiccandidate |website=New Hampshire Campaign Finance System}}

=Debates=

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"

! Date

! Host

! Ayotte

! Morse

! Link

August 26, 2024

|N.H. Institute of Politics

|Participant

|Participant

| align=left | [https://www.youtube.com/live/gXRSUBbjcD4?si=GvvF24F9A4fvbCo7 YouTube]

September 3, 2024

|WMUR-TV

|Participant

|Participant

| align=left | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JqN3myOaKQ YouTube]

=Polling=

class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;"
valign=bottom

! Poll source

! Date(s)
administered

! Sample
size{{efn|Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear|name="Key"}}

! Margin
of error

! style="width:75px;"| Kelly
Ayotte

! style="width:75px;"| Chuck
Morse

!Undecided

style="text-align:left;"|University of New Hampshire[https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1810&context=survey_center_polls University of New Hampshire]

|August 15–19, 2024

|915 (LV)

|± 3.2%

|{{party shading/Republican}}|65%

|21%

|13%{{Efn|Shaun Fife, Robert McClory, and Richard McMenamon with 0%}}

style="text-align:left;"|Saint Anselm College[https://www.anselm.edu/about/anselmian-hub/news/saint-anselm-college-survey-center-new-poll-takes-look-new-hampshires-state-and-federal-fall-primary-races Saint Anselm College]

|August 13–14, 2024

|657 (LV)

|± 3.8%

|{{party shading/Republican}}|59%

|25%

|16%

style="text-align:left;"|Emerson College[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-hampshire-2024-poll-harris-50-trump-46/ Emerson College]{{efn-ua|name=whdh}}

|July 26–28, 2024

|421 (RV)

|± 4.7%

|{{party shading/Republican}}|41%

|26%

|33%

style="text-align:left;"|Praecones Analytica[https://nhjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NH-GOP-GOV-PRIMARY-May-20-2024-v1.pdf Praecones Analytica]{{efn-ua|name=nhj|Poll sponsored by the NH Journal}}

|May 15–20, 2024

|420 (RV)

|± 6.42%

|{{party shading/Republican}}|50%

|28%

|22%

style="text-align:left;"|UMass Lowell[https://www.uml.edu/docs/NH-Jan-Highlights_tcm18-378909.pdf/ UMass Lowell]

|January 6–16, 2024

|600 (LV)

|± 4.65%

|{{party shading/Republican}}|54%

|22%

|23%

{{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#cff|title=Hypothetical polling|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}

class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;"
valign=bottom

! Poll source

! Date(s)
administered

! Sample
size{{efn|Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear|name="Key"}}

! Margin
of error

! style="width:75px;"| Kelly
Ayotte

! style="width:75px;"| Robert
Burns

! style="width:75px;"| Frank
Edelblut

! style="width:75px;"| Chuck
Morse

!Other

!Undecided

style="text-align:left;"|Emerson College[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-hampshire-2024-desantis-fades-trump-maintains-lead-in-primary/ Emerson College]

|August 9–11, 2023

|498 (RV)

|± 4.9%

|{{party shading/Republican}}|45%

|3%

|4%

|9%

|3%

|35%

style="text-align:left;"|co/efficient[https://acrobat.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:fd47a15c-de0e-372f-af9c-953f8dca347a co/efficient]{{efn-ua|name=nhj}}

|June 14–16, 2023

|904 (LV)

|± 3.25%

|{{party shading/Republican}}|69%

|–

|9%

|22%

|–

|–

{{hidden end}}

= Results =

[[File:2024-nh-governor-republican-primary-by-county.svg|thumb|225x225px|Results by county:{{Collapsible list

| title = {{legend|#E27F7F|Ayotte}}|{{legend|#E27F7F|50–60%}}|{{legend|#D75D5D|60–70%}}|{{legend|#D72F30|70–80%}}

}}]]

Ayotte secured a major{{cite news |last1=Yurow |first1=Jeremy |last2=Cullen |first2=Margie |title=Kelly Ayotte, Joyce Craig advance to November showdown in New Hampshire governor race |url=https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/10/new-hampshire-governor-race-primary-results/75166787007/ |access-date=13 September 2024 |agency=USA Today |date=10 September 2024}} victory over Morse, winning almost two thirds of the vote. She performed the best in Sullivan County in the southwest of the state, earning 74% of the vote. Conversely, she recorded her worst result in Rockingham County in the southeast, receiving just 54.7% of the vote.{{cite web |title=New Hampshire Governor election results |url=https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/new-hampshire/governor/ |website=Politico |access-date=13 September 2024}}

{{Election box begin no change|title=Republican primary results{{cite web |title=2024 State Primary Election Results |url=https://www.sos.nh.gov/2024-state-primary-election-results |website=New Hampshire Secretary of State}}}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change|party=Republican Party (United States)|candidate=Kelly Ayotte|votes=88,117|percentage=63.12%}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change|party=Republican Party (United States)|candidate=Chuck Morse|votes=47,567|percentage=34.07%}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change|party=Republican Party (United States)|candidate=Shaun Fife|votes=876|percentage=0.63%}}

{{Election box write-in with party link no change|votes=867|percentage=0.62%}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change|party=Republican Party (United States)|candidate=Robert McClory|votes=839|percentage=0.60%}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change|party=Republican Party (United States)|candidate=Frank Staples|votes=809|percentage=0.58%}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change|party=Republican Party (United States)|candidate=Richard McMenamon|votes=527|percentage=0.38%}}

{{Election box total no change|votes=139,602|percentage=100.00%}}

{{Election box end}}

Democratic primary

=Candidates=

==Nominee ==

  • Joyce Craig, former mayor of Manchester{{Cite web |url=https://www.wmur.com/amp/article/manchester-mayor-joyce-craig-campaign-governor/44507877 |title=Manchester Mayor Craig officially launches campaign for governor |website=WMUR |last=Sexton |first=Adam |language=en-US |date=July 11, 2023 |access-date=July 11, 2023}}

== Eliminated in primary ==

  • Jon Kiper, former Newmarket town councilor{{Cite web |date=2023-11-24 |title=Seacoast Restauranter Becomes Third NH Democrat To Run For Governor |url=https://patch.com/new-hampshire/concord-nh/seacoast-restauranter-becomes-third-nh-democrat-run-governor |access-date=2023-12-07 |website=Patch Media |language=en |author=Schinella, Tony}}
  • Cinde Warmington, New Hampshire Executive Councilor{{Cite web |last=Sexton |first=Adam |date=June 1, 2023 |title=NH Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington launches campaign for governor |url=https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-executive-councilor-cinde-warmington-launches-campaign-for-governor/44062436 |access-date=June 1, 2023 |website=WMUR |language=en-US}}

==Declined==

  • Annie Kuster, U.S. representative for {{ushr|NH|2}}{{cite news |work=Daily Kos |date=20 July 2023 |access-date=20 July 2023 |title=Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 7/20 |url=https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/20/2181217/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-7-20#update-1689883200000 |last=Wolf |first=Stephen |quote=Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster quickly ruled out running for governor next year following GOP Gov. Chris Sununu's Wednesday announcement that he wouldn't seek reelection}}
  • Steve Marchand, former mayor of Portsmouth and candidate for governor in 2016 and 2018{{Cite web |last=DeWitt |first=Ethan |date=November 14, 2022 |title=After six-year battle to oust Sununu, Democrats fall short again |url=https://newhampshirebulletin.com/2022/11/14/after-six-year-battle-to-oust-sununu-democrats-fall-short-again/ |website=New Hampshire Bulletin}}
  • Chris Pappas, U.S. representative for {{ushr|NH|1}} (ran for re-election){{cite news |access-date=19 July 2023 |work=The Boston Globe |first=Steven |url=https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/04/20/metro/who-will-run-new-hampshire-governor-if-chris-sununu-runs-president/ |last=Porter |date=20 April 2023 |title=Who will run for New Hampshire governor if Chris Sununu runs for president?}}
  • Tom Sherman, former state senator and nominee for governor in 2022{{cite news |url=https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/05/01/metro/outgoing-mayor-manchester-nh-launches-exploratory-committee-2024-governors-race/ |title=Outgoing mayor of Manchester, N.H., launches exploratory committee for 2024 governor's race |quote=Former state senator Dr. Tom Sherman, who ran for governor in 2022 and who some had said could run again, told the Globe on Monday that he won’t run for governor in 2024.|author=Porter, Steve|date=May 1, 2023|work=Boston Globe}}

=Endorsements=

{{Endorsements box

| title = Joyce Craig

| colwidth = 60

| list =

Governors

  • John Lynch, former governor of New Hampshire (2005–2013){{cite web |last1=Steinhauser |first1=Paul |title=Craig launches gubernatorial exploratory committee|url=https://www.concordmonitor.com/Craig-launches-gubernatorial-exploratory-committee-50816938 |website=Concord Monitor|access-date=June 3, 2023 |date=May 1, 2023}}
  • Maura Healey, governor of Massachusetts (2023–present)

U.S. representatives

  • Chester Atkins, former U.S. representative from {{ushr|MA|5|MA-5}} (1985–1993){{Cite web |url=https://manchesterinklink.com/craig-campaign-announces-160-new-endorsements/ |title=Craig campaign announces 160 new endorsements |website=Manchester Ink Link |last=Robidoux |first=Carol |date=August 20, 2023 |access-date=September 28, 2023}}

New Hampshire cabinet officials

Judicial officials

State legislators

  • 10 current and former state senators{{Cite web |url=https://manchesterinklink.com/craig-endorsed-by-dr-tom-sherman/ |title=Craig endorsed by Dr. Tom Sherman |last=Sylvia |first=Andrew |date=October 27, 2023 |access-date=October 27, 2023 |language=en-US |website=Manchester Ink Link}}
  • 69 current and former New Hampshire state representatives

Local officials

  • Kevin Cavanaugh, Manchester alderman from the 1st ward (2015–present) and former state senator from the 16th district (2017–2022)
  • Jim Donchess, Mayor of Nashua (2016–present){{Cite web |author=Landrigan, Kevin |date=2024-01-29 |title=Donchess backs Craig for governor |url=https://www.unionleader.com/news/politics/voters/donchess-backs-craig-for-governor/article_ac4aa036-beb5-11ee-8361-a38063b7057c.html |access-date=2024-01-29 |website=UnionLeader.com |language=en}}

Party officials

Other officials

Labor unions

}}

{{Endorsements box

| title = Cinde Warmington

| list =

Governors

  • Howard Dean, former governor of Vermont (1991–2003){{Cite web |date=2024-02-10 |title=Howard Dean endorses Cinde Warmington |work=Manchester Ink Link |url=https://manchesterinklink.com/howard-dean-endorses-cinde-warmington/ |access-date=2024-02-10 |language=en-US}}

U.S. representatives

  • Carol Shea-Porter, former U.S. representative from {{ushr|NH|1|NH-01}} (2007–2011, 2013–2015, 2017–2019){{cite web |last1=Bookman |first1=Todd |title=Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington announces campaign for NH governor |url=https://www.nhpr.org/politics/2023-06-01/executive-councilor-cinde-warmington-announces-campaign-for-nh-governor |website=New Hampshire Public Radio |access-date=June 2, 2023 |date=June 1, 2023}}

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

  • Jim Bouley, mayor of Concord (2008–2024){{cite web |last1=Sylvia |first1=Andrew |title=Warmington announces gubernatorial run |url=https://manchesterinklink.com/warmington-announces-gubernatorial-run/ |website=Ink Link |access-date=15 November 2023 |date=June 1, 2023}}
  • Andrew Hosmer, mayor of Laconia (2020–present)

Labor unions

  • SEA/SEIU LOCAL 1984{{Cite web |date=2024-02-29 |title=NH State Employees Throw Support Behind Cinde Warmington in Democratic Gubernatorial Primary – SEA/SEIU DEV |url=https://seiu1984.org/nh-state-employees-throw-support-behind-cinde-warmington-in-democratic-gubernatorial-primary/ |access-date=2024-03-01 |website=SEA/SEIU DEV – |language=en}}

}}

== Debates ==

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center;"

|+ 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial Democratic primary debate

scope="col" | {{abbr|No.|Number}}

! scope="col" | Date

! scope="col" | Host

! scope="col" | Moderator

! scope="col" | Link

! scope="col"| Democratic

! scope="col"| Democratic

! scope="col"| Democratic

colspan="5" rowspan="2" |Key:
{{Colors|black|#90ff90| P }} Participant  {{Colors|black|#FFFFDD| A }} Absent  {{Colors|black|#ff9090| N }} Not invited  {{Colors|black|#CCFFCC| I }} Invited {{color box|#f0e68c|W}} Withdrawn

! scope="col" style="background:{{party color|Democratic Party (US)}}"|

! scope="col" style="background:{{party color|Democratic Party (US)}}"|

! scope="col" style="background:{{party color|Democratic Party (US)}}"|

scope="col" | Craig

! scope="col" | Warmington

! scope="col" | Kiper

1

| style="white-space:nowrap;" | Sep. 4, 2024

| style="white-space:nowrap;" | WMUR-TV

| style="white-space:nowrap;" | Adam Sexton

| style="white-space:nowrap;" | [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHStM-a2XlQ YouTube]

| {{Yes|P}}

| {{Yes|P}}

| {{Yes|P}}

=Fundraising=

class="wikitable sortable"
colspan=4 |Campaign finance reports as of August 20, 2024
style="text-align:center;"

!Candidate

!Raised

!Spent

!Cash on hand

{{party shading/Democratic}}|Joyce Craig (D)

|$2,976,496

|$2,630,738

|$342,052

{{party shading/Democratic}}|Cinde Warmington (D)

|$2,287,849

|$2,135,285

|$152,564

{{party shading/Democratic}}|Jon Kiper (D)

|$58,277

|$55,985

|$1,443

colspan="4" |Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System

=Polling=

class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;"
valign=bottom

! Poll source

! Date(s)
administered

! Sample
size{{efn|name="Key"}}

! Margin
of error

! style="width:75px;"| Joyce
Craig

! style="width:75px;"| Cinde
Warmington

! Other

! Undecided

style="text-align:left;"|University of New Hampshire

|August 15–19, 2024

|809 (LV)

|± 3.4%

|{{party shading/Democratic}}|39%

|30%

|8%{{Efn|Jon Kiper with 8%}}

|23%

style="text-align:left;"|Saint Anselm College

|August 13–14, 2024

|670 (LV)

|± 3.8%

|{{party shading/Democratic}}|37%

|28%

|3%{{Efn|Jon Kiper with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%}}

|31%

style="text-align:left;"|Emerson College{{efn-ua|name=whdh}}

|July 26–28, 2024

|433 (RV)

|± 4.7%

|{{party shading/Democratic}}|33%

|21%

|–

|{{party shading/Undecided}}|44%

style="text-align:left;"|GBAO[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yNIg529U96f2IAFJGu7qhtH0YDbd-Olk/view GBAO]{{efn-ua|Poll sponsored by Warmington's campaign}}

|February 22–26, 2024

|600 (LV)

|± 4.0%

|{{party shading/Democratic}}|37%

|25%

|–

|{{party shading/Undecided}}|39%

style="text-align:left;"|Emerson College

|August 9–11, 2023

|837 (RV)

|± 3.4%

|{{party shading/Democratic}}|30%

|15%

|2%

|{{party shading/Undecided}}|52%

= Results =

{{multiple image

| width =

| image1 = 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial Democratic primary election results map by county.svg

| image2 = 2024 NH governor dem primary by township.svg

| footer = Primary results by county (left) and municipality (right).{{Collapsible list

| title = {{legend|#7996E2|Craig}}|{{legend|#BDD3FF|30-40%}}{{legend|#A5B0FF|40–50%}}|{{legend|#7996E2|50–60%}}{{legend|#6674DE|60–70%}}{{legend|#584CDE|70–80%}}{{legend|#3933E5|80–90%}}{{legend|#0D0596|>90%}}

}}{{Collapsible list

| title = {{legend|#51C2C2|Warmington}}|{{legend|#ACF2F2|30-40%}}{{legend|#7DDDDD|40–50%}}|{{legend|#51C2C2|50–60%}}{{legend|#2AACAC|60–70%}}{{legend|#009696|70–80%}}{{legend|#008080|80–90%}}}}

{{Collapsible list

| title = {{legend|#FED463|Kiper}}|{{legend|#FEE391|40–50%}}

}}

{{Collapsible list

| title = {{legend|#AE8BB1|Tie}}|{{legend|#D2B1D9|40–50%}} {{legend|#808080|No Votes}}

}}

}}

{{Election box begin no change|title=Democratic primary results}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change|party=Democratic Party (US)|candidate=Joyce Craig|votes=59,976|percentage=47.88%}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change|party=Democratic Party (US)|candidate=Cinde Warmington|votes=52,420|percentage=41.85%}}{{Election box candidate with party link no change|party=Democratic Party (US)|candidate=Jon Kiper|votes=11,789|percentage=9.41%}}

{{Election box write-in with party link no change|votes=1,076|percentage=0.86%}}

{{Election box total no change|votes=125,261|percentage=100.00%}}{{Election box end}}

Third parties and independent candidates

=Declared=

  • Stephen Villee (Libertarian), software developer{{cite web |author1=NH Secretary of State's Office |title=DECLARATIONS OF INTENT FILED – 2024 |url=https://www.sos.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt561/files/documents/2024-06/declarations-of-intent-list-2024_1.pdf |access-date=14 July 2024 |quote=Governor Stephen Villee}}

General election

=Predictions=

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"

!Source

!Ranking

!As of

align=left | The Cook Political Report{{Cite web |title=2024 Governor Race ratings |url=https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/governor-race-ratings |access-date=2023-07-24 |website=The Cook Political Report |language=en}}

| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

| October 15, 2024

align=left | Inside Elections{{Cite web |title=Gubernatorial Ratings |url=https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/governor |access-date=July 24, 2023 |publisher=Inside Elections}}

|{{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

|September 26, 2024

align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball{{Cite web |title=2024 Gubernatorial race ratings |url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-governor/ |access-date=July 24, 2023 |website=Sabato's Crystal Ball |language=en}}

|{{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

|November 4, 2024

align=left | RCP{{Cite web |title=2024 Governor Races |url=https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/governor/2024/toss-up/ |access-date=2024-07-16 |website=www.realclearpolling.com |language=en}}

|{{USRaceRating|Tossup}}

|October 1, 2024

align=left | Elections Daily{{Cite web |date=2023-07-22 |title=Election Ratings |url=https://elections-daily.com/election-ratings/ |access-date=2023-07-24 |website=Elections Daily |language=en-US}}

|{{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}

|November 4, 2024

align=left | CNalysis{{Cite web |title=Governor Forecasts |url=https://projects.cnalysis.com/23-24/governor |access-date=2024-08-17 |website=CNalysis |language=en-US}}

|{{USRaceRating|Tilt|R}}

|November 1, 2024

= Post-primary endorsements =

{{Endorsements box

|title=Joyce Craig (D)

|colwidth=

|collapsed=yes

|list=

Organizations

  • Democratic Governors Association{{cite web |last1=Kelly |first1=Laura |title=DGA Statement on Joyce Craig’s Primary Victory in New Hampshire |url=https://democraticgovernors.org/updates/dga-statement-on-joyce-craigs-primary-victory-in-new-hampshire/ |website=DGA |publisher=Democratic Governors Association |access-date=18 September 2024 |language=en |date=September 10, 2024}}
  • EMILY's List{{cite web |last1=Mackler |first1=Jessica |title=EMILYs List Endorses Joyce Craig for Governor of New Hampshire |url=https://emilyslist.org/news/emilys-list-endorses-joyce-craig-for-governor-of-new-hampshire/ |website=EMILYs List |access-date=18 September 2024 |date=September 16, 2024}}
  • Planned Parenthood New Hampshire Action Fund{{cite web |title=Planned Parenthood NH Action Fund PAC Endorses Governor and Executive Council Candidates Who Will Protect and Expand Access to Reproductive Health Care |url=https://www.plannedparenthoodaction.org/planned-parenthood-new-hampshire-action-fund/press-releases/planned-parenthood-nh-action-fund-pac-endorses-governor-and-executive-council-candidates-who-will-protect-and-expand-access-to-reproductive-health-care-2 |publisher=Planned Parenthood New Hampshire Action Fund |access-date=18 September 2024 |date=September 12, 2024}}

}}

=Fundraising=

class="wikitable sortable"
colspan=4 |Campaign finance reports as of November 5, 2024
style="text-align:center;"

!Candidate

!Raised

!Spent

!Cash on hand

{{party shading/Republican}}|Kelly Ayotte (R)

|{{party shading/Republican}}|$21,005,579

|{{party shading/Republican}}|$18,668,848

|{{party shading/Republican}}|$2,204,119

{{party shading/Democratic}}|Joyce Craig (D)

|{{party shading/Democratic}}|$7,346,371

|{{party shading/Democratic}}|$6,827,299

|{{party shading/Democratic}}|$515,368

colspan="4" |Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System

=Polling=

Aggregate polls

class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center;font-size:90%;line-height:17px"

!Source of poll
aggregation

!Dates
administered

!Dates
updated

! style="width:100px;"| Kelly
Ayotte (R)

! style="width:100px;"| Joyce
Craig (D)

! Undecided
{{Efn|Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.|name=|group=}}

!Margin

RealClearPolitics[https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/governor/general/2024/new-hampshire/ayotte-vs-craig RealClearPolitics]

|October 21 – November 2, 2024

|November 3, 2024

|{{party shading/Republican}}|46.8%

|44.3%

|8.9%

|{{party shading/Republican}}|Ayotte +2.5%

270toWin[https://www.270towin.com/2024-governor-polls/new-hampshire 270toWin]

|October 24 – November 3, 2024

|November 3, 2024

|{{party shading/Republican}}|47.0%

|44.0%

|9.0%

|{{party shading/Republican}}|Ayotte +3.0%

colspan="3" |Average

|{{party shading/Republican}}|46.9%

|44.2%

|8.9%

|{{party shading/Republican}}|Ayotte +2.7%

class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;"
valign=bottom

! Poll source

! Date(s)
administered

! Sample
size{{efn|name="Key"}}

! Margin
of error

! style="width:100px;"| Kelly
Ayotte (R)

! style="width:100px;"| Joyce
Craig (D)

!Others

!Undecided

style="text-align:left;" |Dartmouth College[https://web.archive.org/web/20241104213758/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20241104_NH_Dartmouth.pdf Dartmouth College]

|November 1–3, 2024

|587 (LV)

|± 4.0%

|40%

|{{party shading/Democratic}} |58%

|2%{{efn|"Another Candidate" with 2%}}

|–

style="text-align:left;" |University of New Hampshire[https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/833/ University of New Hampshire]

|October 29 – November 2, 2024

|2,814 (LV)

|± 1.9%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |48%

|44%

|1%{{efn|Villee (L) with 1%}}

|6%

style="text-align:left;" |Saint Anselm College[https://www.anselm.edu/about/anselmian-hub/news/new-poll-saint-anselm-college-survey-center-shows-kamala-harris-holding-solid-lead-new-hampshire Saint Anselm College]

|October 28–29, 2024

|2,791 (LV)

|± 1.9%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |49%

|46%

|2%{{efn|"Someone else" with 2%}}

|3%

style="text-align:left;" |Praecones Analytica[https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:US:417506f5-8a34-4187-9ed8-212fe7571e8b Praecones Analytica]{{efn-ua|name=nhj}}

|October 24–26, 2024

|622 (RV)

|± 3.9%

|{{party shading/Republican}} |52%

|48%

|–

|–

rowspan="2" style="text-align:left;" |Emerson College[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2024-new-hampshire-poll-harris-50-trump-47/ Emerson College]{{efn-ua|name=whdh}}

|rowspan="2"|October 21–23, 2024

|rowspan="2"|915 (LV)

|rowspan="2"|± 3.2%

|{{party shading/Republican}} |50%

|46%

|5%{{efn|Villee (L) with 5%}}

|–

{{party shading/Republican}} |46%

|43%

|4%{{efn|Villee (L) with 4%}}

|7%

style="text-align:left;" |UMass Lowell/YouGov[https://www.uml.edu/docs/2024-Oct31-NH-Topline_tcm18-392296.pdf UMass Lowell/YouGov]

|October 10–23, 2024

|600 (LV)

|± 4.4%

|{{party shading/Republican}} |45%

|43%

|4%{{efn|Villee (L) with 3%; "Another Candidate" with 1%}}

|8%

style="text-align:left;" |Dartmouth College[https://rockefeller.dartmouth.edu/sites/rockefeller.prod/files/rockefeller/wysiwyg/thedartmouthpoll_toplinesurveyresults_10-24-2024.pdf Dartmouth College]

|October 5–18, 2024

|2,196 (RV)

|± 2.1%

|46%

|{{party shading/Democratic}} |51%

|3%{{efn|"Another Candidate" with 3%}}

|–

style="text-align:left;" |UMass Lowell/YouGov[https://www.uml.edu/docs/2024-October-NH-Topline_tcm18-391824.pdf UMass Lowell/YouGov]

|October 2–10, 2024

|600 (LV)

|± 4.8%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |42%

|41%

|4%{{Efn|Stephen Ville with 3% and "Another candidate" with 1%}}

|14%

style="text-align:left;" |Saint Anselm College[https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/2024-10/SACSC_NHLV_1024.pdf Saint Anselm College]

|October 1–2, 2024

|2,104 (LV)

|± 2.1%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |47%

|44%

|3%{{efn|"Someone else" with 3%}}

|6%

style="text-align:left;" |University of New Hampshire[https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1820&context=survey_center_polls University of New Hampshire]

|September 12–16, 2024

|1,695 (LV)

|± 2.4%

|46%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |47%

|1%{{Efn|"Another candidate" with 1%; Stephen Villee (L) with 0%}}

|5%

style="text-align:left;" |Saint Anselm College[https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/2024-09/SACSC_NHLV_0924.pdf Saint Anselm College]

|September 11–12, 2024

|2,241 (LV)

|± 2.1%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |46%

|43%

|5%{{Efn|Someone else with 5%}}

|6%

style="background:lightyellow;"

| style="border-right-style:hidden; background:lightyellow;" |

| style="border-right-style:hidden; " | September 10, 2024

| colspan="6" | Primary elections held

style="text-align:left;" |Emerson College[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-hampshire-2024-haley-surges-to-second-place-while-trump-maintains-lead// Emerson College]{{efn-ua|name=whdh|Poll sponsored by WHDH-TV}}

|November 10–13, 2023

|917 (RV)

|± 3.3%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |43%

|40%

|—

|17%

style="text-align:left;" |Emerson College

|August 9–11, 2023

|837 (RV)

|± 3.4%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |46%

|37%

|—

|17%

{{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#cff|title=Hypothetical polling|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}

Kelly Ayotte vs. Cinde Warmington

class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;"
valign=bottom

! Poll source

! Date(s)
administered

! Sample
size{{efn|name="Key"}}

! Margin
of error

! style="width:100px;"| Kelly
Ayotte (R)

! style="width:100px;"| Cinde
{{nowrap|Warmington (D)}}

! Undecided

style="text-align:left;"|Emerson College{{efn-ua|name=whdh}}

|November 10–13, 2023

|917 (RV)

|± 3.3%

|{{party shading/Republican}}|44%

|37%

|19%

style="text-align:left;"|Emerson College

|August 9–11, 2023

|837 (RV)

|± 3.4%

|{{party shading/Republican}}|47%

|34%

|19%

{{hidden end}}

=Results=

{{Election box begin

| title = 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial electionhttps://www.sos.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt561/files/inline-documents/sonh/2024-ge-governor_3.xlshttps://www.sos.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt561/files/inline-documents/sonh/2024-ge-ballots-cast_6.xls

}}{{Election box winning candidate with party link|party=Republican Party (United States)|candidate=Kelly Ayotte|votes=436,122|percentage=53.61%|change=-3.37%}}{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Democratic Party (United States)|candidate=Joyce Craig|votes=360,149|percentage=44.27%|change=+2.80%}}{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Libertarian Party (United States)|candidate=Stephen Villee|votes=16,202|percentage=1.99%|change=N/A}}

{{Election box write-in with party link

|votes =1,024

|percentage =0.13%

|change =-0.15%

}}{{Election box total

|votes =813,497

|percentage =100.00%

|change=N/A

}}{{Election box turnout|votes=832,518|percentage=|change=}}{{Election box registered electors

|reg. electors =

}}{{Election box hold with party link no swing|winner=Republican Party (US)}}{{Election box end}}

=Results by county=

== Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic ==

==By congressional district==

Ayotte won both congressional districts, which both elected Democrats.https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::a1a2b285-f862-402c-9e89-b45791a46473

class=wikitable
District

! Ayotte

! Craig

! Representative

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|New Hampshire|1|1st}}

| 54%

| 44%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Chris Pappas

align=center

! rowspan=2 {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|New Hampshire|2|2nd}}

| rowspan=2| 53%

| rowspan=2| 45%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Annie Kuster (118th Congress)

align=center

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Maggie Goodlander (119th Congress)

Notes

{{notelist}}

Partisan clients

{{notelist-ua}}

References

{{Reflist}}

External links

Official campaign websites

  • [https://kellyfornh.com/ Kelly Ayotte (R) for Governor]
  • [https://joycecraig.org/ Joyce Craig (D) for Governor]

{{2024 United States elections}}

Category:New Hampshire gubernatorial elections

Gubernatorial

New Hampshire