2025 Canadian federal election in Ontario

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2025 Canadian federal election in Ontario

| country = Canada

| type = parliamentary

| ongoing = yes

| election_date = 2025 Canadian federal election

| party_colour = yes

| party_name = yes

| seats_for_election = All 122 of Ontario's seats in the House of Commons

| previous_year = 2021

| previous_election = 2021 Canadian federal election

| next_election =

| next_year = 46th

| previous_mps = List of House members of the 44th Parliament of Canada#Ontario

| elected_mps = List of House members of the 45th Parliament of Canada#Ontario

| image1 = {{CSS image crop|Image = Mark Carney.jpg|bSize = 150|cWidth = 120|cHeight = 160|oTop = 0|oLeft = 15}}

| colour1 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|Liberal|nohash}}

| leader1 = Mark Carney

| party1 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|Liberal|name}}

| leader_since1 = March 9, 2025

| last_election1 = 78 seats{{efn|name="LPC seat count"|While formal results show the Liberals winning 78 seats in Ontario, those totals include Kevin Vuong, who was disavowed during the campaign by his party, and sat as an Independent in the House of Commons.}}, 39.3%

| seats_before1 = 74

| image2 = {{CSS image crop|Image= Pierre Poilievre in 2023 (edited).jpg|bSize = 120|cWidth = 120|cHeight = 160|oTop = 0|oLeft = 0}}

| colour2 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|Conservative|nohash}}

| leader2 = Pierre Poilievre

| party2 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|Conservative|name}}

| leader_since2 = September 10, 2022

| last_election2 = 37 seats, 34.9%

| seats_before2 = 38

| image3 = {{CSS image crop|Image = Jagmeet Singh in Brantford 2022 2 (cropped3).jpg|bSize = 120|cWidth = 120|cHeight = 160|oTop = 0|oLeft = 0}}

| colour3 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|NDP|nohash}}

| leader3 = Jagmeet Singh

| leader_since3 = October 1, 2017

| party3 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|NDP|name}}

| last_election3 = 5 seats, 17.8%

| seats_before3 = 5

| image4 = {{Multiple candidates images|{{CSS image crop|Image = Elizabeth May 4431 (37439753570) (cropped).jpg|bSize = 136|cWidth = 60|cHeight = 160|oTop = 0|oLeft = 28}}|{{CSS image crop|Image = Jonathan Pedneault Interview.jpg|bSize = 133|cWidth = 60|cHeight = 160|oTop = 0|oLeft = 36}}}}

| colour4 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|Green|nohash}}

| leader4 = Elizabeth May & Jonathan Pedneault

| party4 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|Green|name}}

| leader_since4 = November 19, 2022 / February 4, 2025

| last_election4 = 1 seats, 2.2%

| seats_before4 = 1

| image5 = {{CSS image crop|Image = Maxime Bernier portrait 2023.png|bSize = 120|cWidth = 120|cHeight = 160|oTop = 0|oLeft = 0}}

| image5_size =

| colour5 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|PPC|nohash}}

| leader5 = Maxime Bernier

| leader_since5 = September 14, 2018

| party5 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|PPC|name}}

| last_election5 = 0 seats, 5.5%

| seats_before5 = 0

| map_image =

| map_size =

| map_caption =

| title = Prime Minister

| before_election = Mark Carney

| before_party = {{Canadian party colour|CA|Liberal|name}}

}}

In the 2025 Canadian federal election, there will be 122 members of Parliament elected to the House of Commons from the province of Ontario (35.6% of all members).

Background

= 2022 electoral redistribution =

The 2025 Canadian federal election will be the first election to utilize the electoral districts established following the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution. The House of Commons will increase from 338 seats to 343 seats, with Ontario gaining one seat in an increase from 121 to 122. This ensures that the average population per constituency in Ontario is 116,590 (according to the 2021 Canadian census), which is 8,742 more people per electoral district than the national average.{{cite press release|title=New House of Commons Seat Allocation |url=https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=med&dir=pre&document=jul0822&lang=e|access-date=July 8, 2022 |publisher=Elections Canada|date=July 8, 2022|location=Gatineau|archive-date=July 8, 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220708203449/https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=med&dir=pre&document=jul0822&lang=e|url-status=live}} Due to the redistribution, this will be the first Canadian federal election where the city of Toronto will have less seats than its surrounding suburban municipalities within the Greater Toronto Area.{{cite news|author=Ibbitson, John & Bricker, Darrell|title=With the Laurentian elite’s power fading, a new and less stable Canada is emerging: Canadian unity is under greater threat than at any time since the last referendum|work=Globe and Mail|date=November 23, 2024|page=O2|quote=the GTA outside Toronto is growing faster than in the city itself, in the most recent redistricting of the House of Commons, the GTA outside Toronto gained ridings, while Toronto lost one}}

= Timeline =

class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%;" \|+ Changes in Ontario seats held (2021–2025)
rowspan="2" \| Seat ! colspan="4" \| Before ! colspan="3" \| Change
Date ! Member ! Party ! Reason ! Date ! Member ! Party
Mississauga—Lakeshore \|{{dts\|May 27, 2022}} \|Sven Spengemann \|{{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Liberal\|colour&name\|short}} \|Resigned seat \|2022 Mississauga—Lakeshore federal by-election \|Charles Sousa \|{{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Liberal\|colour&name\|short}}
Oxford \|{{dts\|January 28, 2023}} \|Dave MacKenzie \|{{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Conservative\|colour&name\|short}} \|Resigned seat \|2023 Oxford federal by-election \|Arpan Khanna \|{{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Conservative\|colour&name\|short}}
Don Valley North \|{{dts\|March 22, 2023}} \|Han Dong \|{{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Liberal\|colour&name\|short}} \|Resigned from caucus \| \| \|{{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Independent\|colour&name\|short}}
Durham \|{{dts\|August 1, 2023}} \|Erin O'Toole \|{{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Conservative\|colour&name\|short}} \|Resigned seat \|2024 Durham federal by-election \|Jamil Jivani \|{{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Conservative\|colour&name\|short}}
Toronto—St. Paul's \|{{dts\|January 16, 2024}} \|Carolyn Bennett \|{{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Liberal\|colour&name\|short}} \|Resigned seat \|2024 Toronto—St. Paul's federal by-election \|Don Stewart \|{{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Conservative\|colour&name\|short}}
Eglinton—Lawrence \|{{dts\|March 13, 2025}} \|Marco Mendicino \|{{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Liberal\|colour&name\|short}} \|Resigned seat \|n/a{{efn\|By-elections are not scheduled to fill vancancies within 9 months of a fixed general election date.}} \|– \|{{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Vacant\|colour&name\|short}}

class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%;"

|+ Changes in Ontario seats held (2021–2025)

rowspan="2" | Seat

! colspan="4" | Before

! colspan="3" | Change

Date

! Member

! Party

! Reason

! Date

! Member

! Party

Mississauga—Lakeshore

|{{dts|May 27, 2022}}

|Sven Spengemann

|{{Canadian party colour|CA|Liberal|colour&name|short}}

|Resigned seat

|2022 Mississauga—Lakeshore federal by-election

|Charles Sousa

|{{Canadian party colour|CA|Liberal|colour&name|short}}

Oxford

|{{dts|January 28, 2023}}

|Dave MacKenzie

|{{Canadian party colour|CA|Conservative|colour&name|short}}

|Resigned seat

|2023 Oxford federal by-election

|Arpan Khanna

|{{Canadian party colour|CA|Conservative|colour&name|short}}

Don Valley North

|{{dts|March 22, 2023}}

|Han Dong

|{{Canadian party colour|CA|Liberal|colour&name|short}}

|Resigned from caucus

|{{Canadian party colour|CA|Independent|colour&name|short}}

Durham

|{{dts|August 1, 2023}}

|Erin O'Toole

|{{Canadian party colour|CA|Conservative|colour&name|short}}

|Resigned seat

|2024 Durham federal by-election

|Jamil Jivani

|{{Canadian party colour|CA|Conservative|colour&name|short}}

Toronto—St. Paul's

|{{dts|January 16, 2024}}

|Carolyn Bennett

|{{Canadian party colour|CA|Liberal|colour&name|short}}

|Resigned seat

|2024 Toronto—St. Paul's federal by-election

|Don Stewart

|{{Canadian party colour|CA|Conservative|colour&name|short}}

Eglinton—Lawrence

|{{dts|March 13, 2025}}

|Marco Mendicino

|{{Canadian party colour|CA|Liberal|colour&name|short}}

|Resigned seat

|n/a{{efn|By-elections are not scheduled to fill vancancies within 9 months of a fixed general election date.}}

|–

|{{Canadian party colour|CA|Vacant|colour&name|short}}

= Opinion polling =

{{Transcluded section|Opinion polling for the 2025 Canadian federal election}}

{{#section:Opinion polling for the 2025 Canadian federal election|OntarioProvinceWide}}

Predictions

=Summary=

class="wikitable" style="text-align:right;"

!rowspan="2"|Source !!colspan="6"|Ranking

{{Canadian party colour|CA|Liberal|background}} align="center" |Lib

|{{Canadian party colour|CA|Conservative|background}} align="center" |Con

|{{Canadian party colour|CA|NDP|background}} align="center" |NDP

|{{Canadian party colour|CA|Green|background}} align="center" |Green

!As of

338Canada{{cite web |title=Ontario |url=https://338canada.com/ontario.htm |website=338Canada |access-date=23 April 2025}}

|83

| 23 April 2025

Summary of results

class=wikitable style="text-align:right;"
colspan=2\|Party !Votes !Vote % !Vote {{abbr\|+/-\|Change from 2021 election}} !Seats !Seat {{abbr\|+/-\|Change from the dissolution of the 44th Canadian Parliament}}
{{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Liberal\|row-name}} \| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}}pp \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} / 122 \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} {{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Conservative\|row-name}} \| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}}pp \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} / 122 \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} {{Canadian party colour\|CA\|NDP\|row-name}} \| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}}pp \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} / 122 \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} {{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Green\|row-name}} \| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}}pp \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} / 122 \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} {{Canadian party colour\|CA\|PPC\|row-name}} \| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}}pp \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} / 122 \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} {{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Independent\|row-name}} \| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}}pp \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} / 122 \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} {{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Other\|row-name}} \| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}}pp \|style="text-align:center;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} / 122 \|style="text-align:left;"\| {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}}
colspan="2" \| Total ! {{abbr\|TBD\|To be decided}} ! {{percentage bar\|100\|c={{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Coalition}}\|width=150}} ! – ! {{Composition bar\|122\|122\|hex={{Canadian party colour\|CA\|Coalition}}\|width=200\|per=2}} !style="text-align:left;"\| {{increase}} 1{{efn\|Ontario gained 1 seat in the electoral redistribution.}}

class=wikitable style="text-align:right;"

colspan=2|Party

!Votes

!Vote %

!Vote {{abbr|+/-|Change from 2021 election}}

!Seats

!Seat {{abbr|+/-|Change from the dissolution of the 44th Canadian Parliament}}

| {{abbr|TBD|To be decided}}

|style="text-align:center;"| {{abbr|TBD|To be decided}}