Aggregative Contingent Estimation Program

The broad program announcement for ACE was published on June 30, 2010.{{cite web|url=https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&tab=core&id=54f9f4b696ffeedf52cffc433a2fc878|title = Aggregative Contingent Estimation System|date = June 30, 2010|access-date = May 6, 2014|publisher = Federal Business Opportunities}} ACE funded the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES) website and interface on July 15, 2011.{{cite web|url=http://gcn.com/articles/2011/07/15/intell-crowdsourcing-forecasting-ace.aspx|title = Intell site tests crowdsourcing's ability to predict future|last = Hickey|first = Kathleen|date = July 15, 2011|access-date = May 6, 2014|publisher = GCN}} They funded The Good Judgment Project some time around July 2011.{{cite web|url=http://goodjudgmentproject.com/blog/?p=4 |title=The idea behind the Good Judgment Project |date=July 27, 2011 |access-date=May 5, 2014 |publisher=The Good Judgment Project |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140506202243/http://goodjudgmentproject.com/blog/?p=4 |archive-date=May 6, 2014 }} ACE has been covered in The Washington Post and Wired Magazine''.{{cite web|url=https://www.wired.com/2010/04/can-algorithms-find-the-best-intelligence-analysts/|title = Can Algorithms Find the Best Intelligence Analysts?|last = Drummond|first = Katie|date = April 22, 2010|access-date = May 6, 2014|publisher = Wired Magazine}} The program was concluded by late 2015.{{Cite web|url = http://www.c4isrnet.com/story/military-tech/it/2015/09/23/iarpa-anticipating-surprise/72632204/|title = IARPA's high-stakes intelligence experiment|last = Corrin|first = Amber|date = 2015-09-23|website = C4ISR & Networks|access-date = 2016-03-31|archive-date = 2017-06-21|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20170621170049/http://www.c4isrnet.com/story/military-tech/it/2015/09/23/iarpa-anticipating-surprise/72632204/|url-status = dead}} The program manager was future IARPA director Jason Gaverick Matheny.{{cite book|author=Marc Prensky|title=Brain Gain: Technology and the Quest for Digital Wisdom|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=YM-00xBevvcC&pg=PA260|date=7 August 2012|publisher=St. Martin's Press|isbn=978-1-137-09317-2|page=260 |quote=The ACE program manager is Jason Matheny}}

The official website says that the goals of ACE are "to dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of intelligence forecasts for a broad range of event types, through the development of advanced techniques that elicit, weight, and combine the judgments of many intelligence analysts." The website claims that ACE seeks technical innovations in the following areas:

• efficient elicitation of probabilistic judgments, including conditional probabilities for contingent events
• mathematical aggregation of judgments by many individuals, based on factors that may include: past performance, expertise, cognitive style, metaknowledge, and other attributes predictive of accuracy
• effective representation of aggregated probabilistic forecasts and their distributions.

There is a fair amount of research funded by grants made by the IARPA ACE program.{{cite web|url=https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=%22D11PC20058+OR+D11PC20059+OR+D11PC20060+OR+D11PC20061+OR+D11PC20062%22&btnG=&as_sdt=1%2C47&as_sdtp=|title = Google Scholar listing of research funded by IARPA ACE|access-date = May 6, 2014}}

The ACE has collaborated with partners who compete in its forecasting tournaments. Their most notable partner is The Good Judgment Project from Philip E. Tetlock et al.{{cite web|url=http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/about_project.html |title=The Project |publisher=The Good Judgment Project |access-date=May 5, 2014 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140506201121/http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/about_project.html |archive-date=May 6, 2014 }} (winner of a 2013 ACE tournament){{cite web|url = https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/11/26/good-judgment-in-forecasting-international-affairs-and-an-invitation-for-season-3/|title = Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)|last = Horowitz|first = Michael|date = November 26, 2013|access-date = May 5, 2014|work=The Washington Post}} ACE also partnered with the ARA to create the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES).

Data from ACE is fed into another program, called Forecasting Science and Technology (ForeST), which partners with SciCast from George Mason University.{{cite web|url=http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/forest|title = Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)|last = Matheny|first = Jason|access-date = May 6, 2014|publisher = Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity}}

{{reflist}}

• {{official website|http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/ace}}

Category:United States intelligence operations

Category:Statistical forecasting