Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales

{{Infobox organization

| name = CEPII

| full_name = Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales

| logo = Cepii logo01 FR 300dpi.jpg

| image = Segur20.jpg

| caption = Fontenoy-Ségur government office complex, seat of CEPII since 2017

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| predecessor = GEPEI

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| formation = 1978

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| headquarters = 20, avenue de Ségur

| location_city = Paris

| location_country = France

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| leader_title = Founder

| leader_name = Michel Courcier

| leader_title2 = Director

| leader_name2 = Antoine Bouët

| leader_title3 = Chairman

| leader_name3 = Jean Lemierre

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| funding = French government

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| website = http://www.cepii.fr/

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The Centre d'Études Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales ({{lit|Centre for Prospective Studies and International Information}}{{cite report |last1=Bertho |first1=Fabien |last2=Meisel |first2=Nicolas |last3=Roca |first3=Thomas |title=Presentation of the Institutional Profiles Database 2012 |date=July 2013 |work=Cahiers - Documents de travail de la DG Trésor |docket=2013/03 |page=4, 7 |publisher=Direction générale du Trésor |url=http://www.cepii.fr/institutions/doc/IPD_2012_cahiers-2013-03_EN.pdf |quote=The Centre for Prospective Studies and International Information (CEPII) is also a partner in the IPD project.}}), generally referred to by its acronym CEPII, is a French institute for research in international economics. It is government-funded and part of the Office of the Prime Minister, within a network coordinated by France Stratégie.{{cite web |website=France Stratégie |title=Éclairer, Proposer, Évaluer : Rapport d’activité 2021 |url=https://www.strategie.gouv.fr/sites/strategie.gouv.fr/files/atoms/files/rapport_dactivite_2021_de_france_strategie_-_juin_2022.pdf |page=36}}

The origins of CEPII go back to the creation in 1963 by French official Michel Courcier of the GEPEI ({{langx|fr|Groupe d'Études Prospectives des Échanges Internationaux}}), rebranded GEPI ({{langx|fr|Groupe d'Études Prospectives Internationales}}) in the 1970s. In 1978, CEPII was given permanent status by government order, with Courcier as its founding director.{{R|history|p=8}}

The CEPII has a core team of around 30 economists. The four main research areas are: factor markets and growth; the international financial and monetary system; EU economy; international trade models.{{cn|date=March 2023}}

History

File:SaintDenis5458.jpg

File:111 et 113 rue de Grenelle, Paris 7e.JPG

= Precursors =

Michel Courcier had started his career after the liberation of France in the research service of the Ministry of Finance, and had assisted several former French colonies such as Cambodia, Madagascar and Senegal in their creation of a national accounting framework. From his international experience, he gained a belief that the methodologies and achievements of French national accounting could and should be expanded to the international level, which became the driving insight for the creation of GEPEI in 1963. The research group was hosted by the Centre Français du Commerce Extérieur (CFCE), a trade promotion agency of the French government.{{R|history|p=8}} An early opportunity came with the preparation of President Charles de Gaulle's visit to the Soviet Union in June 1966, for which the GEPEI prepared briefing materials and from which it developed regular relationships with the Soviet Gosplan. The GEPEI thus became a leading center of expertise on the economy of the Communist bloc.{{R|history|p=9}} Meanwhile, its research team was joined by economists such as {{ill|Gérard Lafay|fr}} in 1966,{{R|history|p=9}} Anton Brender in 1969,{{R|history|p=18}}, or Jean Pisani-Ferry in 1977.{{R|history|p=20}} By the early 1970s, Courcier and Lafay had developed an economic model of the global economy.{{citation |author=Michel Courcier and Gérard Lafay |title=Simulation économique multinationale |journal=Statistiques et études financières |volume=8 |year=1972 |pages=27-58 |url=https://www.persee.fr/doc/ecop_0338-4217_1972_num_8_1_1955 }}

= Founding =

In 1978, Prime Minister Raymond Barre, on advice from General Planning Commissioner Michel Albert and from his own economic adviser Jean-Claude Casanova,{{R|history|p=5}} reformed the GEPI by expanding its resources, relocating it within the machinery of government from CFCE to the General Planning Commission, and rebranding it as CEPII. CEPII thus acquired an interagency profile mirrored by its board ({{langx|fr|Conseil du CEPII}}) which brought together the heads or deputy heads of major government organizations with economic expertise such as the Planning Commission, the Direction du Trésor, INSEE, the Directorate for External Economic Relations (later merged into the Trésor), the Direction Générale de l'Industrie (later merged into the {{ill|Directorate General for Enterprise|fr|Direction générale des entreprises}}), the Bank of France, and the Secretariat-General for National Defence.{{R|history|p=12}}

=Development=

The GEPEI was initially established in Paris on Quai Branly, then Avenue d'Iéna,{{R|history|p=8}} then on 54-48, rue Saint-Denis.{{cite web |website=Le Monde |title=La mobilisation générale |author=Michel Boyer |date={{date|1977/06/01}} |url=https://www.lemonde.fr/archives/article/1977/06/01/i-la-mobilisation-generale_2866539_1819218.html }} In late 1980, its successor CEPII moved from there to 9, rue Georges Pitard,{{R|history|p=14}} where it remained for three decades. In 2010 CEPII relocated to 113, rue de Grenelle,{{cite web |website=France Stratégie |url=http://archives.strategie.gouv.fr/cas/system/files/voeux2011vc_0.pdf |title=Vœux de Vincent Chriqui, Directeur général du Centre d'Analyse Stratégique |date={{date|2011/01/17}}}} then in 2017 to 20, avenue de Ségur in Paris.

The CEPII developed a series of publication formats: the monthly Lettre du CEPII from May 1979,{{R|history|p=13}}, the quarterly Économie Prospective Internationale from January 1980 (rebranded Économie Internationale in 1993),{{R|history|p=14, 20}} working papers ({{langx|fr|documents de travail}}) from 1984,{{R|history|p=17}} the yearly essay L'Économie mondiale from 1991,{{R|history|p=18}} and a first website in 1996.{{R|history|p=21}}

=Merger with OFCE=

In late 2023, a government-commissioned report by economists {{ill|Jean-Luc Tavernier|fr}} and Nicolas Véron recommended a merger between CEPII and French Observatory of Economic Cycles (OFCE), another government-funded think tank that focuses on domestic economics. Upon the report's publication, Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne endorsed the recommendation.{{cite web |website=French government website |url=https://www.gouvernement.fr/communique/analyse-economique-et-evaluation-des-politiques-publiques |date={{date|2022/12/22}} |title=Analyse économique et évaluation des politiques publiques}}

As of May 2023, OFCE was ranked 16th worldwide (and first in France) among economic think tanks by the RePEc initiative.{{cite web |website=RePEc |url=https://ideas.repec.org/top/top.ttanks.html |title=Top 25% Think Tanks, as of May 2023}}

Leadership

The successive chief executives ({{langx|fr|Directeur}}) of the CEPII have been:{{cite web |author=Gérard Moatti |title=1978-2008: Une brève histoire du CEPII |url=http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/autres/brevehistoireCEPII.pdf |website=CEPII |date=January 2008}}

Michel Courcier, July 1978 - December 1979 (and head of the GEPEI, then GEPI since 1963)
Christian Sautter, January 1980 - May 1981
{{ill|Yves Berthelot|fr}}, July 1981 - August 1985
Jean-Michel Charpin, September 1985 - March 1990
Anton Brender, March 1990 - March 1992
Jean Pisani-Ferry, June 1992 - June 1997
Jean-Claude Berthélemy, January 1998 - March 2000
{{ill|Lionel Fontagné|fr}}, March 2000 - June 2006
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, July 2006 - December 2012
Sébastien Jean, December 2012 - August 2022
Antoine Bouët, since October 2022{{cite web |website=ActeursPublics |title=Antoine Bouët, nouveau directeur du Centre d’études prospectives et d’informations internationales |url=https://acteurspublics.fr/nomination/antoine-bouet-nouveau-directeur-du-centre-detudes-prospectives-et-dinformations-internationales }}

Chairs of the Conseil du CEPII:

{{ill|Philippe Huet|fr|Philippe Huet (1920-1994)}}, July 1978 - December 1982
Michel Albert, December 1982 - December 1995
Francis Mer, December 1995 - March 2000
Michel Camdessus, March 2000 - July 2004
{{ill|Christian Stoffaës|fr}}, July 2004 - 2009
Jean Lemierre, since November 2009{{cite web |website=La Lettre A |title=Le CEPII retrouve sa tête |date={{date|2009/10/30}} |url=https://www.lalettrea.fr/clubs--think-tanks/2009/10/30/le-cepii-retrouve-sa-tete,72733722-art }}

The CEPII created a Scientific Committee ({{langx|fr|Comité scientifique}}) in 2000, successively chaired by François Bourguignon (2000-2004), Olivier Blanchard (2004-2007),{{R|history|p=24}} Francesco Giavazzi (2007-2020?), and Marc Melitz (since 2020?).