Cloud feedback

File:McKim 2024 cloud formulae.png

Clouds have two major effects on the Earth's energy budget: they reflect shortwave radiation from sunlight back to space due to their high albedo, but the water vapor contained inside them also absorbs and re-emits the longwave radiation sent out by the Earth's surface as it is heated by sunlight, preventing its escape into space and retaining this heat energy for longer.{{rp|1022}}

In meteorology, the difference in the radiation budget caused by clouds, relative to cloud-free conditions, is described as the cloud radiative effect (CRE).{{cite journal |last1=Matthews |title=Annex VII: Glossary of the Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |date=6 July 2023 |doi=10.1017/9781009157896.022 |doi-access=free }} This is also sometimes referred to as cloud radiative forcing (CRF).{{cite web |last = NASA |title = Clouds & Radiation Fact Sheet : Feature Articles | publisher = NASA | date = 2016 | url = https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Clouds/ | access-date = 2017-05-29}} However, since cloud changes are not normally considered an external forcing of climate, CRE is the most commonly used term.

At the top of the atmosphere, it can be described by the following equation{{cite book |last= Hartmann |first= Dennis L. |date = 2016 |title= Global Physical Climatology |location= Amsterdam |publisher= Elsevier |isbn= 978-0123285317}}

:$\backslash Delta\; R\_\{TOA\}\; =\; R\_\{Average\}\; -\; R\_\{Clear\}$

The net cloud radiative effect can be decomposed into its longwave and shortwave components. This is because net radiation is absorbed solar minus the outgoing longwave radiation shown by the following equations

:$\backslash Delta\; R\_\{TOA\}\; =\; \backslash Delta\; Q\_\{abs\}\; -\; \backslash Delta\; OLR$

The first term on the right is the shortwave cloud effect (Q_abs ) and the second is the longwave effect (OLR).

The shortwave cloud effect is calculated by the following equation

:$\backslash Delta\; Q\_\{abs\}\; =\; (S\_o/4)\; \backslash cdot\; (1\; -\; \backslash alpha\_\{cloudy\})\; -\; (S\_o/4)\; \backslash cdot\; (1\; -\; \backslash alpha\_\{clear\})$

Where S_o is the solar constant, ∝_cloudy is the albedo with clouds and ∝_clear is the albedo on a clear day.

The longwave effect is calculated by the next following equation

:$\backslash Delta\; OLR\; =\; \backslash sigma\; T\_z^4\; -\; F\_\{clear\}^\{up\}$

Where σ is the Stefan–Boltzmann constant, T is the temperature at the given height, and F is the upward flux in clear conditions.

Putting all of these pieces together, the final equation becomes

:$\backslash Delta\; R\_\{TOA\}\; =\; (S\_o/4)\; \backslash cdot\; ((1\; -\; \backslash alpha\_\{cloudy\})\; -\; (1\; -\; \backslash alpha\_\{clear\}))\; -\; \backslash sigma\; T\_z^4\; +\; F\_\{clear\}^\{up\}$

File:Attribution of individual atmospheric component contributions to the terrestrial greenhouse effect, separated into feedback and forcing categories (NASA).png, separated into feedback and forcing categories (NASA)]]

Under dry, cloud-free conditions, water vapor in atmosphere contributes 67% of the greenhouse effect on Earth. When there is enough moisture to form typical cloud cover, the greenhouse effect from "free" water vapor goes down to 50%, but water vapor which is now inside the clouds amounts to 25%, and the net greenhouse effect is at 75%.{{cite journal |last=Schmidt |first=G.A. |title=The attribution of the present-day total greenhouse effect |journal=J. Geophys. Res. |volume=115 |issue=D20 |pages=D20106 |df=dmy-all |year=2010 |bibcode=2010JGRD..11520106S |doi=10.1029/2010JD014287 |author2=R. Ruedy |author3=R.L. Miller |author4=A.A. Lacis |author-link1=Gavin Schmidt |doi-access=free}}, D20106. [http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/sc05400j.html Web page ] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120604034848/http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/sc05400j.html|date=4 June 2012}} According to 1990 estimates, the presence of clouds reduces the outgoing longwave radiation by about 31 W/m². However, it also increases the global albedo from 15% to 30%, and this reduces the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the Earth by about 44 W/m². Thus, there is a net cooling of about 13 W/m².{{cite book |last=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |title=IPCC First Assessment Report.1990 |publisher=Cambridge University Press |year=1990 |location=UK |author-link=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}}table 3.1 If the clouds were removed with all else remaining the same, the Earth would lose this much cooling and the global temperatures would increase.{{rp|1022}}

Climate change increases the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere due to the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, in what is known as the water-vapor feedback.{{Cite journal |last1=Held |first1=Isaac M. |last2=Soden |first2=Brian J. |date=November 2000 |title=Water vapor feedback and global warming |journal=Annual Review of Energy and the Environment |language=en |volume=25 |issue=1 |pages=441–475 |citeseerx=10.1.1.22.9397 |doi=10.1146/annurev.energy.25.1.441 |issn=1056-3466 |doi-access=free}} It also affects a range of cloud properties, such as their height, the typical distribution throughout the atmosphere, and cloud microphysics, such as the amount of water droplets held, all of which then affect clouds' radiative forcing.{{rp|1023}} Differences in those properties change the role of clouds in the Earth's energy budget. The name cloud feedback refers to this relationship between climate change, cloud properties, and clouds' radiative forcing.IPCC, 2021: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_AnnexVII.pdf Annex VII: Glossary] [Matthews, J.B.R., V. Möller, R. van Diemen, J.S. Fuglestvedt, V. Masson-Delmotte, C.  Méndez, S. Semenov, A. Reisinger (eds.)]. In [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2215–2256, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.022.{{rp|2224}} Clouds also affect the magnitude of internally generated climate variability.{{Cite journal |last1=Brown |first1=Patrick T. |last2=Li |first2=Wenhong |last3=Jiang |first3=Jonathan H. |last4=Su |first4=Hui |date=2015-12-07 |title=Unforced Surface Air Temperature Variability and Its Contrasting Relationship with the Anomalous TOA Energy Flux at Local and Global Spatial Scales |url=https://dukespace.lib.duke.edu/dspace/bitstream/10161/15913/1/2016_BrownLiJiangSu_JCLI.pdf |url-status=live |journal=Journal of Climate |volume=29 |issue=3 |pages=925–940 |bibcode=2016JCli...29..925B |doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0384.1 |issn=0894-8755 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180719171852/https://dukespace.lib.duke.edu/dspace/bitstream/10161/15913/1/2016_BrownLiJiangSu_JCLI.pdf |archive-date=2018-07-19 |doi-access=free}}{{Cite journal |last1=Bellomo |first1=Katinka |last2=Clement |first2=Amy |last3=Mauritsen |first3=Thorsten |last4=Rädel |first4=Gaby |last5=Stevens |first5=Bjorn |date=2014-04-11 |title=Simulating the Role of Subtropical Stratocumulus Clouds in Driving Pacific Climate Variability |journal=Journal of Climate |volume=27 |issue=13 |pages=5119–5131 |bibcode=2014JCli...27.5119B |doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00548.1 |issn=0894-8755 |s2cid=33019270 |hdl-access=free |hdl=11858/00-001M-0000-0014-72C1-F}}

File:20220726_Feedbacks_affecting_global_warming_and_climate_change_-_block_diagram.svg that can amplify (positive feedbacks) or reduce (negative feedbacks) global warming{{cite web |date=2016 |title=The Study of Earth as an Integrated System |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161102022200/https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/ |archive-date=November 2, 2016 |website=nasa.gov |publisher=NASA}}]]Climate models have represented clouds and cloud processes for a very long time. Cloud feedback was already a standard feature in climate models designed in the 1980s. However, the physics of clouds are very complex, so models often represent various types of clouds in different ways, and even small variations between models can lead to significant changes in temperature and precipitation response. Climate scientists devote a lot of effort to resolving this issue. This includes the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP), where models simulate cloud processes under different conditions and their output is compared with the observational data. (AR6 WG1, Ch1, 223) When the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had published its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) in 2021, the uncertainty range regarding cloud feedback strength became 50% smaller since the time of the AR5 in 2014.{{rp|95}}

File:McKim 2024 tropical clouds.jpg

This happened because of major improvements in the understanding of cloud behaviour over the subtropical oceans. As the result, there was high confidence that the overall cloud feedback is positive (contributes to warming).{{rp|95}} The AR6 value for cloud feedback is +0.42 [–0.10 to 0.94] W m–2 per every {{convert|1|C-change|F-change}} in warming. This estimate is derived from multiple lines of evidence, including both models and observations.{{rp|95}} The tropical high-cloud amount feedback is the main remaining area for improvement. The only way total cloud feedback may still be slightly negative is if either this feedback, or the optical depth feedback in the Southern Ocean clouds is suddenly found to be "extremely large"; the probability of that is considered to be below 10%.{{rp|975}} As of 2024, most recent observations from the CALIPSO satellite instead indicate that the tropical cloud feedback is very weak.{{cite journal |last1=Raghuraman |first1=Shiv Priyam |last2=Medeiros |first2=Brian |last3=Gettelman |first3=Andrew |date=30 March 2024 |title=Observational quantification of tropical high cloud changes and feedbacks |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |volume=129 |issue=7 |page=e2023JD039364 |doi=10.1029/2023JD039364 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2024JGRD..12939364R }}

In spite of these improvements, clouds remain the least well-understood climate feedback, and they are the main reason why models estimate differing values for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). ECS is an estimate of long-term (multi-century) warming in response to a doubling in {{CO2}}-equivalent greenhouse gas concentrations: if the future emissions are not low, it also becomes the most important factor for determining 21st century temperatures.{{rp|95}} In general, the current generation of gold-standard climate models, CMIP6, operates with larger climate sensitivity than the previous generation, and this is largely because cloud feedback is about 20% more positive than it was in CMIP5.{{rp|93}}

However, the median cloud feedback is only slightly larger in CMIP6 than it was in CMIP5;{{rp|95}} the average is so much higher only because several "hot" models have much stronger cloud feedback and higher sensitivity than the rest.{{rp|93}} Those models have a sensitivity of {{cvt|5|C|F}} and their presence had increased the median model sensitivity from {{cvt|3.2|C|F}} in CMIP5 to {{cvt|3.7|C|F}} in CMIP6. These model results had attracted considerable attention when they were first published in 2019, as they would have meant faster and more severe warming if they were accurate. It was soon found that the output of those "hot" models is inconsistent with both observations and paleoclimate evidence, so the consensus AR6 value for cloud feedback is smaller than the mean model output alone. The best estimate of climate sensitivity in AR6 is at {{cvt|3|C|F}}, as this is in a better agreement with observations and paleoclimate findings.{{rp|93}}

File:Bellouin_2019_aerosol_cloud_interactions.jpg

Atmospheric aerosols—fine partices suspended in the air—affect cloud formation and properties, which also alters their impact on climate. While some aerosols, such as black carbon particles, make the clouds darker and thus contribute to warming,{{cite journal| title=Nature Geoscience: Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon|journal=Nature Geoscience| volume=1| issue=4| pages=221–227| doi=10.1038/ngeo156| year=2008| last1=Ramanathan| first1=V.| last2=Carmichael| first2=G.| s2cid=12455550| bibcode=2008NatGe...1..221R}} by far the strongest effect is from sulfates, which increase the number of cloud droplets, making the clouds more reflective, and helping them cool the climate more. That is known as a direct aerosol effect; however, aerosols also have an indirect effect on liquid water path, and determining it involves computationally heavy continuous calculations of evaporation and condensation within clouds. Climate models generally assume that aerosols increase liquid water path, which makes the clouds even more reflective. However, satellite observations taken in 2010s suggested that aerosols decreased liquid water path instead, and in 2018, this was reproduced in a model which integrated more complex cloud microphysics.{{cite journal |last1=Sato |first1=Yousuke |last2=Goto |first2=Daisuke |last3=Michibata |first3=Takuro |last4=Suzuki |first4=Kentaroh |last5=Takemura |first5=Toshihiko |last6=Tomita |first6=Hirofumi |last7=Nakajima |first7=Teruyuki |date=7 March 2018 |title=Aerosol effects on cloud water amounts were successfully simulated by a global cloud-system resolving model |journal=Nature Communications |volume=9 |issue=1 |page=985 |doi=10.1038/s41467-018-03379-6 |pmid=29515125 |pmc=5841301 |doi-access = free |bibcode=2018NatCo...9..985S }} Yet, 2019 research found that earlier satellite observations were biased by failing to account for the thickest, most water-heavy clouds naturally raining more and shedding more particulates: very strong aerosol cooling was seen when comparing clouds of the same thickness.{{cite journal | last1 = Rosenfeld | first1 = Daniel | last2 = Zhu | first2 = Yannian | last3 = Wang | first3 = Minghuai | last4 = Zheng | first4 = Youtong | last5 = Goren | first5 = Tom | last6 = Yu | first6 = Shaocai | year = 2019 | title = Aerosol-driven droplet concentrations dominate coverage and water of oceanic low level clouds | url = https://authors.library.caltech.edu/92390/2/aav0566_Rosenfeld_SM.pdf| journal = Science | volume = 363| issue = 6427| page = eaav0566| doi = 10.1126/science.aav0566 | pmid = 30655446 | s2cid = 58612273 | doi-access = free }}

Moreover, large-scale observations can be confounded by changes in other atmospheric factors, like humidity: i.e. it was found that while post-1980 improvements in air quality would have reduced the number of clouds over the East Coast of the United States by around 20%, this was offset by the increase in relative humidity caused by atmospheric response to AMOC slowdown.{{cite journal |last1=Cao |first1=Yang |last2=Wang |first2=Minghuai |last3=Rosenfeld |first3=Daniel |last4=Zhu |first4=Yannian |last5=Liang |first5=Yuan |last6=Liu |first6=Zhoukun |last7=Bai |first7=Heming |date=10 March 2021 |title=Strong Aerosol Effects on Cloud Amount Based on Long-Term Satellite Observations Over the East Coast of the United States |journal=Geophysical Research Letters | volume=48 |issue=6 | page=e2020GL091275 |doi=10.1029/2020GL091275 |doi-access = free |bibcode=2021GeoRL..4891275C }} Similarly, while the initial research looking at sulfates from the 2014–2015 eruption of Bárðarbunga found that they caused no change in liquid water path,{{Cite journal |last1=Malavelle |first1=Florent F. |last2=Haywood |first2=Jim M. |last3=Jones |first3=Andy |last4=Gettelman |first4=Andrew |last5=Clarisse |first5=Lieven |last6=Bauduin |first6=Sophie |last7=Allan |first7=Richard P. |last8=Karset |first8=Inger Helene H. |last9=Kristjánsson |first9=Jón Egill |last10=Oreopoulos |first10=Lazaros |last11=Cho |first11=Nayeong |last12=Lee |first12=Dongmin |last13=Bellouin |first13=Nicolas |last14=Boucher |first14=Olivier |last15=Grosvenor |first15=Daniel P. |last16=Carslaw |first16=Ken S. |last17=Dhomse |first17=Sandip |last18=Mann |first18=Graham W. |last19=Schmidt |first19=Anja |last20=Coe |first20=Hugh |last21=Hartley |first21=Margaret E. |last22=Dalvi |first22=Mohit |last23=Hill |first23=Adrian A. |last24=Johnson |first24=Ben T. |last25=Johnson |first25=Colin E. |last26=Knight |first26=Jeff R. |last27=O'Connor |first27=Fiona M. |last28=Partridge |first28=Daniel G. |last29=Stier |first29=Philip |last30=Myhre |first30=Gunnar |last31=Platnick |first31=Steven |last32=Stephens |first32=Graeme L. |last33=Takahashi |first33=Hanii |last34=Thordarson |first34=Thorvaldur |date=22 June 2017 |title=Strong constraints on aerosol–cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions |journal=Nature |volume=546 |issue=7659 |pages=485–491 |language=en |doi=10.1038/nature22974 |pmid=28640263 |bibcode=2017Natur.546..485M |s2cid=205257279 |hdl=10871/28042 |hdl-access=free }} it was later suggested that this finding was confounded by counteracting changes in humidity.

File:ShipTracks.jpg

To avoid confounders, many observations of aerosol effects focus on ship tracks, but post-2020 research found that visible ship tracks are a poor proxy for other clouds, and estimates derived from them overestimate aerosol cooling by as much as 200%.{{cite journal | last1=Glassmeier |first1=Franziska |last2=Hoffmann |first2=Fabian |last3=Johnson |first3=Jill S. |last4=Yamaguchi |first4=Takanobu |last5=Carslaw |first5=Ken S. |last6=Feingold |first6=Graham | date=29 January 2021 |title=Aerosol-cloud-climate cooling overestimated by ship-track data | journal=Science |volume =371 |issue=6528 |pages=485–489 |doi=10.1126/science.abd3980 |pmid=33510021 |doi-access = free |bibcode=2021Sci...371..485G }} At the same time, other research found that the majority of ship tracks are "invisible" to satellites, meaning that the earlier research had underestimated aerosol cooling by overlooking them.{{cite journal |last1=Manshausen |first1=Peter |last2=Watson-Parris |first2=Duncan |last3=Christensen |first3=Matthew W. |last4=Jalkanen |first4=Jukka-Pekka |last5=Stier |first5=Philip Stier |date=7 March 2018 |title=Invisible ship tracks show large cloud sensitivity to aerosol |journal=Nature |volume=610 |issue=7930 |pages=101–106 |doi=10.1038/s41586-022-05122-0 |pmid=36198778 |pmc=9534750 |doi-access=free }} Finally, 2023 research indicates that all climate models have underestimated sulfur emissions from volcanoes which occur in the background, outside of major eruptions, and so had consequently overestimated the cooling provided by anthropogenic aerosols, especially in the Arctic climate.{{cite journal |last1=Jongebloed |first1=U. A. |last2=Schauer |first2=A. J. |last3=Cole-Dai |first3=J. |last4=Larrick |first4=C. G. |last5=Wood |first5=R. |last6=Fischer |first6=T. P. |last7=Carn |first7=S. A. |last8=Salimi |first8=S. |last9=Edouard |first9=S. R. |last10=Zhai |first10=S. |last11=Geng |first11=L. |last12=Alexander |first12=B. |title=Underestimated Passive Volcanic Sulfur Degassing Implies Overestimated Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing | date=2 January 2023 |journal=Geophysical Research Letters | volume=50 |issue=1 |pages=e2022GL102061 |doi=10.1029/2022GL102061 |s2cid=255571342 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2023GeoRL..5002061J }}

File:Estimates of past and future SO2 global anthropogenic emissions.pngs. While no climate change scenario may reach Maximum Feasible Reductions (MFRs), all assume steep declines from today's levels. By 2019, sulfate emission reductions were confirmed to proceed at a very fast rate.{{Cite journal|last1=Xu|first1=Yangyang|last2=Ramanathan|first2=Veerabhadran|last3=Victor|first3=David G.|date=5 December 2018|title=Global warming will happen faster than we think|journal=Nature|language=en|volume=564|issue=7734|pages=30–32 |url=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329411074 |doi=10.1038/d41586-018-07586-5|pmid=30518902|bibcode=2018Natur.564...30X|doi-access=free}}]]

Estimates of how much aerosols affect cloud cooling are very important, because the amount of sulfate aerosols in the air had undergone dramatic changes in the recent decades. First, it had increased greatly from 1950s to 1980s, largely due to the widespread burning of sulfur-heavy coal, which caused an observable reduction in visible sunlight that had been described as global dimming. Then, it started to decline substantially from the 1990s onwards and is expected to continue to decline in the future, due to the measures to combat acid rain and other impacts of air pollution.{{cite web | access-date=2007-03-17 | archive-date=2007-03-17 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070317212933/http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/econ-emissions.html | url=http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/econ-emissions.html | title=Air Emissions Trends – Continued Progress Through 2005 | publisher=U.S. Environmental Protection Agency | date=8 July 2014}} Consequently, the aerosols provided a considerable cooling effect which counteracted or "masked" some of the greenhouse effect from human emissions, and this effect had been declining as well, which contributed to acceleration of climate change.IPCC, 2021: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf Summary for Policymakers]. In: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3–32, {{doi|10.1017/9781009157896.001}}.

Climate models do account for the presence of aerosols and their recent and future decline in their projections, and typically estimate that the cooling they provide in 2020s is similar to the warming from human-added atmospheric methane, meaning that simultaneous reductions in both would effectively cancel each other out.{{cite web|url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-stop-as-soon-as-net-zero-emissions-are-reached |title=Explainer: Will global warming 'stop' as soon as net-zero emissions are reached? |author=Zeke Hausfather|publisher=Carbon Brief|date= 29 April 2021 |access-date=2023-03-23}} However, the existing uncertainty about aerosol-cloud interactions likewise introduces uncertainty into models, particularly when concerning predictions of changes in weather events over the regions with a poorer historical record of atmospheric observations.{{cite journal |last1=Wang |first1=Zhili |last2=Lin |first2=Lei |last3=Xu |first3=Yangyang |last4=Che |first4=Huizheng |last5=Zhang |first5=Xiaoye |last6=Zhang |first6=Hua |last7=Dong |first7=Wenjie |last8=Wang |first8=Chense |last9=Gui |first9=Ke |last10=Xie |first10=Bing |date=12 January 2021 | title=Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models |journal=npj Climate and Atmospheric Science | volume=4 |doi=10.1029/2021JD035476 |doi-access=free |hdl=10852/97300 |hdl-access=free }}{{cite journal |last1=Julsrud |first1=I. R. |last2=Storelvmo |first2=T. |last3=Schulz |first3=M. |last4=Moseid |first4=K. O. |last5=Wild |first5=M. |date=20 October 2022 | title=Disentangling Aerosol and Cloud Effects on Dimming and Brightening in Observations and CMIP6 |journal= Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres| volume=127 |issue=21 |page=e2021JD035476 |doi=10.1029/2021JD035476 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2022JGRD..12735476J |hdl=10852/97300 |hdl-access=free }}{{Cite journal|last1=Persad|first1=Geeta G.|last2=Samset|first2=Bjørn H.|last3=Wilcox|first3=Laura J.|date=21 November 2022 |title=Aerosols must be included in climate risk assessments|journal=Nature|language=en|volume=611 |issue=7937 |pages=662–664 |doi=10.1038/d41586-022-03763-9 |pmid=36411334 |doi-access=free|bibcode=2022Natur.611..662P }}{{Cite journal |last1=Ramachandran |first1=S. |last2=Rupakheti |first2=Maheswar |last3=Cherian |first3=R. |date=10 February 2022 |title=Insights into recent aerosol trends over Asia from observations and CMIP6 simulations |journal=Science of the Total Environment |volume=807 |issue=1 |page=150756 |doi=10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150756 |pmid=34619211 |s2cid=238474883 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2022ScTEn.80750756R }}

{{See also|Tipping points in the climate system}}

In 2019, a study employed a large eddy simulation model to estimate that equatorial stratocumulus clouds could break up and scatter when {{CO2}} levels rise above 1,200 ppm (almost three times higher than the current levels, and over 4 times greater than the preindustrial levels). The study estimated that this would cause a surface warming of about {{convert|8|C-change|F-change}} globally and {{convert|10|C-change|F-change}} in the subtropics, which would be in addition to at least {{convert|4|C-change|F-change}} already caused by such {{CO2}} concentrations. In addition, stratocumulus clouds would not reform until the {{CO2}} concentrations drop to a much lower level.{{Cite journal |last1=Schneider |first1=Tapio |last2=Kaul |first2=Colleen M. |last3=Pressel |first3=Kyle G. |date=2019 |title=Possible climate transitions from breakup of stratocumulus decks under greenhouse warming |journal=Nature Geoscience |volume=12 |issue=3 |pages=163–167 |doi=10.1038/s41561-019-0310-1|bibcode=2019NatGe..12..163S |s2cid=134307699 }} It was suggested that this finding could help explain past episodes of unusually rapid warming such as Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.{{cite web |date=25 February 2019 |url=https://www.quantamagazine.org/cloud-loss-could-add-8-degrees-to-global-warming-20190225/|title=A World Without Clouds|first=Natalie|last=Wolchover|website=Quanta Magazine |access-date=2 October 2022}} In 2020, further work from the same authors revealed that in their large eddy simulation, this tipping point cannot be stopped with solar radiation modification: in a hypothetical scenario where very high {{CO2}} emissions continue for a long time but are offset with extensive solar radiation modification, the break-up of stratocumulus clouds is simply delayed until {{CO2}} concentrations hit 1,700 ppm, at which point it would still cause around {{convert|5|C-change|F-change}} of unavoidable warming.{{Cite journal |last1=Schneider |first1=Tapio |last2=Kaul |first2=Colleen M. |last3=Pressel |first3=Kyle G. |date=2020 |title=Solar geoengineering may not prevent strong warming from direct effects of {{CO2}} on stratocumulus cloud cover |journal=PNAS |volume=117 |issue=48 |pages=30179–30185 |doi=10.1073/pnas.2003730117|pmid=33199624 |pmc=7720182 |bibcode=2020PNAS..11730179S |doi-access=free }}

However, because large eddy simulation models are simpler and smaller-scale than the general circulation models used for climate projections, with limited representation of atmospheric processes like subsidence, this finding is currently considered speculative. Other scientists say that the model used in that study unrealistically extrapolates the behavior of small cloud areas onto all cloud decks, and that it is incapable of simulating anything other than a rapid transition, with some comparing it to "a knob with two settings".{{cite news |url=https://www.science.org/content/article/world-without-clouds-hardly-clear-climate-scientists-say |title=A world without clouds? Hardly clear, climate scientists say |date=February 26, 2019|website=Science Magazine |first=Paul |last=Voosen}} Additionally, {{CO2}} concentrations would only reach 1,200 ppm if the world follows Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, which represents the highest possible greenhouse gas emission scenario and involves a massive expansion of coal infrastructure. In that case, 1,200 ppm would be passed shortly after 2100.{{Cite web |date=25 February 2019 |title=Extreme {{CO2}} levels could trigger clouds 'tipping point' and 8C of global warming |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/extreme-co2-levels-could-trigger-clouds-tipping-point-and-8c-of-global-warming/ |access-date=2 October 2022 |website=Carbon Brief}}

• Cloud formation
• Earth's energy budget
• Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis

{{Reflist}}

{{climate change}}

Category:Climate forcing

Category:Cloud and fog physics