Cyclone Pat

{{Short description|Category 10

South Pacific cyclone in 2010}}

{{Infobox weather event

| name=Severe Tropical Cyclone Pat

| image=Pat 09 feb 2010 2110Z.jpg

| caption=Cyclone Pat strengthening on February 9

}}{{Infobox weather event/History

| formed=February 6, 2010

| dissipated=February 12, 2010

}}{{Infobox weather event/FMS

| winds=75

| pressure=960

}}{{Infobox weather event/JTWC

| winds=90

}}{{Infobox weather event/Effects

| year=2010

| damage=13700000

| fatalities=None

| areas=Cook Islands, particularly Aitutaki

}}{{Infobox weather event/Footer

| season=2009–10 South Pacific cyclone season

}}

Severe Tropical Cyclone Pat was a small but strong tropical cyclone that passed directly over Aitutaki,{{#tag:ref|Aitutaki is a small atoll comprising several islands with a total land area of 18.05 km² (6.96 mi²) which surround a 50 km² (19.3 mi²) lagoon.{{cite web|author=Alphons M.J. Kloosterman|publisher=Victoria University of Wellington|year=1976|access-date=May 6, 2015|title=Discoverers of the Cook Islands and the Names they Gave|url=http://nzetc.victoria.ac.nz/tm/scholarly/tei-KloDisc-t1-body-d1.html|page=8}} It has a population of 1,771.{{cite web|publisher=Government of the Cook Islands|year=2015|access-date=May 6, 2015|title=Aitutaki, The Cook Islands|url=http://www.cookislands.org.uk/aitutaki1.html|archive-date=May 16, 2006|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060516014531/http://www.cookislands.org.uk/aitutaki1.html|url-status=dead}}|group="nb"|name="Aitutaki"}} Cook Islands, in southern Pacific Ocean on February 10, 2010.{{#tag:ref|All mentions of dates are in accordance with Coordinated Universal Time for consistency, unless otherwise noted.|group="nb"|name="Times"}} Part of a series of storms to impact the group of islands early that year, Pat was first identified as a tropical depression on February 6 well to the northeast of the Samoan Islands. The storm steadily organized as it moved generally southeast, becoming a tropical cyclone on February 8. Turning to the south, intensification began in earnest and the system acquired hurricane-force winds within 48 hours of being named. The {{convert|445|km|mi|abbr=on|round=5}} wide system displayed annular characteristics and a {{convert|12|mi|km|abbr=on|disp=flip}} wide eye. Pat reached its peak strength early on February 10 as a severe tropical cyclone with winds of 140 km/h (85 mph) and a barometric pressure of 960 mbar (hPa; {{convert|960|mbar|inHg|lk=on|abbr=on|sigfig=4|disp=out}}).{{#tag:ref|All winds are in ten-minute sustained standards unless otherwise noted|group="nb"|name="10min"}} Hours later it struck Aitutaki, producing gusts in excess of 185 km/h (115 mph) on the island. Hostile wind shear then prompted rapid weakening of the cyclone. The system degraded below gale-intensity on February 11, just 24 hours after it peaked, and was last noted early on February 12.

Battering Aitutaki with wind gusts in excess of 185 km/h (115 mph), Cyclone Pat devastated the island. Approximately 78 percent of homes were damaged, with 72 structures destroyed. The electrical grid was left completely offline and supply of water was largely lost. Agriculture also experienced tremendous impact, with most crops completely lost. Damage on Aitutaki amounted to US$13.7 million;{{#tag:ref|All monetary amounts are in 2010 values of their respective currencies.|group="nb"|name="money"}} however, casualties were minimal with only eight minor injuries reported. Recovery efforts began immediately after the storm, with the Red Cross and the Government of New Zealand aiding the local government. A reconstruction plan was enacted by the Cook Islands within a month and subsequently funded by New Zealand. Owing to its destructive effects, the name Pat was later retired and replaced with Pili.{{cite report|work=RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee|publisher=World Meteorological Organization|date=April 29, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee for the South Pacific and South-East Indian Ocean Thirteenth Session: Review of the Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for the South Pacific and South-East Indian Ocean|page=12|url=http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/documents/RAVTCC-13FinalReport.pdf}}

Meteorological history

Between January and March 2010, the Australian monsoon trough extended unusually far east over the southern Pacific Ocean. With above-average sea surface temperatures, stemming from a moderate-strength El Niño, multiple low-pressure systems were able to develop across the region. An unusual spree of tropical cyclogenesis in rapid succession ensued, including four hurricane-strength storms: Oli, Pat, Rene, and Tomas.{{cite journal|author=James P. Terry and Samuel Etienne|journal=Weather|date=July 2010|volume=65|issue=7|pages=193–195|title=Recent heightened tropical cyclone activity east of 180° in the South Pacific|doi=10.1002/wea.542|bibcode = 2010Wthr...65..188K |s2cid=1619124 }} On February 6, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) began monitoring a tropical depression, dubbed 09F, well to the northeast of the Samoan Islands.{{cite report|publisher=Fiji Meteorological Service |date=February 6, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Marine Weather Bulletin for Islands Area |url=http://weather.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA14.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_AREA_ISLANDS.1800.0620341429179.html |archive-url=https://archive.today/20240522053952/https://www.webcitation.org/5nLeR9uqW?url=http://weather.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA14.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST_AREA_ISLANDS.1800.0620341429179.html |archive-date=May 22, 2024 |location=Nadi, Fiji |url-status=dead }}{{#tag:ref|The Fiji Meteorological Service is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center for the Pacific Ocean between the equator and 25°S from 160°E to 120°W.{{cite web|author=Christopher W. Landsea|work=National Hurricane Center|publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|year=2014|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Subject: F1) What regions around the globe have tropical cyclones and who is responsible for forecasting there?|url=http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/F1.html}}|group="nb"|name="RSMC"}} Embedded within a well-developed trough, the system displayed curved convective banding features. Environmental conditions in the area, including low wind shear, high ocean heat content, and upper-level outflow, favored cyclogenesis. Additionally, an active Madden–Julian oscillation phase moving into the region was expected to bolster development.{{cite report|work=Joint Typhoon Warning Center |publisher=United States Navy |date=February 6, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans |url=http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt |archive-date=March 5, 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100305204921/http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt |url-status=dead }} Steady improvement of the system's convective structure ensued and early on February 7, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.{{cite report|work=Joint Typhoon Warning Center |publisher=United States Navy |date=February 7, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt/wtps21.pgtw..txt |archive-date=April 26, 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100426150045/http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt/wtps21.pgtw..txt |url-status=dead }}{{#tag:ref|The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is a joint United States Navy – United States Air Force task force that issues tropical cyclone warnings for the southern Pacific Ocean and other regions.{{cite web|work=Joint Typhoon Warning Center|publisher=United States Navy|title=Joint Typhoon Warning Center Mission Statement|year=2011|access-date=April 25, 2015|url=https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/menu/JTWC_mission.html|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070726103400/https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/menu/JTWC_mission.html|archive-date=July 26, 2007}}|group="nb"}} The low trekked generally east-southeast in response to a near-equatorial ridge anchored to the north. The storm's appearance continued to improve and Dvorak classifications rose to T2.5, indicating gale-force winds were likely present. Accordingly, the JTWC began issuing advisories on the system at 18:00 UTC and dubbed it Tropical Cyclone 14P. Forecasters noted, however, that the small size of the cyclone could lead to erroneously low Dvorak estimates.{{cite web|work=Joint Typhoon Warning Center |publisher=United States Navy |date=February 7, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Tropical Cyclone 14P Warning Nr 001 |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt/wtps31.pgtw..txt |archive-date=August 8, 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100808001949/http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt/wtps31.pgtw..txt |url-status=dead }} The FMS followed suit six hours later and assigned the name Pat to the cyclone, assessing it as a Category 1 on the Australian cyclone scale.{{cite web|publisher=University of Hawaii at Manoa|date=April 24, 2015|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Southwest Pacific Enhanced Archive for Tropical Cyclones|url=http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/projects/speartc/}}

Convection became increasingly symmetric on February 8, and a small eye feature appeared on microwave satellite imagery.{{cite web|work=Joint Typhoon Warning Center |publisher=United States Navy |date=February 8, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Tropical Cyclone 14P (Pat) Warning Nr 002 |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt/wtps31.pgtw..txt |archive-date=May 22, 2024 |archive-url=https://archive.today/20240522054113/https://www.webcitation.org/5nPrktZbH?url=http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/WTPS31_201002080900.htm |url-status=dead }} Spanning no more than {{convert|445|km|mi|abbr=on|round=5}}, the developing storm began a gradual turn to the south as steering currents shifted from the equatorial ridge to a subtropical ridge. Based on increasing Dvorak numbers,{{cite web|work=Joint Typhoon Warning Center |publisher=United States Navy |date=February 9, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Tropical Cyclone 14P (Pat) Warning Nr 004 |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt/wtps31.pgtw..txt |archive-date=August 8, 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100808001949/http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt/wtps31.pgtw..txt |url-status=dead }} the JTWC assessed Pat to have reached hurricane-intensity by 06:00 UTC on February 9.{{cite web|work=Joint Typhoon Warning Center|publisher=United States Navy|year=2011|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Tropical Cyclone 14P (Pat) Best Track|url=http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/best_tracks/2010/2010s-bsh/bsh142010.txt|format=.TXT|archive-date=November 21, 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161121092020/http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/best_tracks/2010/2010s-bsh/bsh142010.txt|url-status=dead}} The eye feature became more pronounced throughout the day, with convection consolidating inward and becoming more symmetric.{{cite web|work=Joint Typhoon Warning Center |publisher=United States Navy |date=February 9, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Tropical Cyclone 14P (Pat) Warning Nr 005 |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt/wtps31.pgtw..txt |archive-date=August 8, 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100808001949/http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt/wtps31.pgtw..txt |url-status=dead }} Accordingly, the FMS accordingly upgraded Pat to a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone by 18:00 UTC. The system became annular in nature on February 10, characterized by a lack of prominent banding features and uniform convection which surrounded its {{convert|12|mi|km|abbr=on|disp=flip}} wide eye.{{cite web|work=Joint Typhoon Warning Center |publisher=United States Navy |date=February 10, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Tropical Cyclone 14P (Pat) Warning Nr 006 |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt/wtps31.pgtw..txt |archive-date=August 8, 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100808001949/http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt/wtps31.pgtw..txt |url-status=dead }} Pat reached its peak intensity at 06:00 UTC that day as it began turning to the southwest. Maximum winds were estimated at 140 km/h (85 mph) alongside a barometric pressure of 960 mbar (hPa; {{convert|960|mbar|inHg|lk=on|abbr=on|sigfig=4|disp=out}}). At the same time, the JTWC assessed Pat to have been a Category 2-equivalent on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale with one-minute sustained winds of 165 km/h (105 mph). Weakening began shortly thereafter as wind shear over the system increased. Pat passed directly over the island of Aitutaki between 12:00 and 18:00 UTC.

The low-level center of Pat began decoupling from convection late on February 10 once it cleared Aitutaki.{{cite web|work=Joint Typhoon Warning Center |publisher=United States Navy |date=February 10, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Tropical Cyclone 14P (Pat) Warning Nr 007 |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt/wtps31.pgtw..txt |archive-date=August 8, 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100808001949/http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt/wtps31.pgtw..txt |url-status=dead }} The storm rapidly weakened amid strong shear, with the center being left completely exposed early on February 11. A solitary band remained along the south side of the storm by that time,{{cite web|work=Joint Typhoon Warning Center |publisher=United States Navy |date=February 11, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Tropical Cyclone 14P (Pat) Warning Nr 008 |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt/wtps31.pgtw..txt |archive-date=August 8, 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100808001949/http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt/wtps31.pgtw..txt |url-status=dead }} and the FMS no longer considered it a tropical cyclone after 06:00 UTC. The lone band of convection dissipated later that day and with no residual thunderstorm activity, the skeletal low turned westward in response to westerly flow.{{cite web|work=Joint Typhoon Warning Center |publisher=United States Navy |date=February 11, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Tropical Cyclone 14P (Pat) Warning Nr 009 |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt/wtps31.pgtw..txt |archive-date=August 8, 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100808001949/http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt/wtps31.pgtw..txt |url-status=dead }} The JTWC maintained Pat as a tropical storm until 18:00 UTC and as a tropical depression until its dissipation early on February 12.

Preparations

File:Cyclone Pat near peak intensity on February 10, 2010.jpg

Starting on February 7, tropical cyclone alerts and later gale warnings were issued for the Northern Cook Islands under the anticipation of gale-force winds impacting populated islands. The first of these islands were Manihiki, Rakahanga, and Suwarrow.{{cite report|publisher=Fiji Meteorological Service |date=February 7, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Special Weather Bulletin Number One for Northern Cooks On Tropical Depression 09F Issued From RSMC Nadi |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwku40.nffn..txt |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100608035304/http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwku40.nffn..txt |archive-date=June 8, 2010 |location=Nadi, Fiji |url-status=dead }}{{cite report|publisher=Fiji Meteorological Service |date=February 8, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Special Weather Bulletin Number Two for Northern Cooks On Tropical Cyclone Pat Issued From RSMC Nadi |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwku40.nffn..txt |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071209175346/http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20023.txt |archive-date=December 9, 2007 |location=Nadi, Fiji |url-status=dead }} As the storm moved southward, the advisories shifted accordingly. Strong wind warnings were raised for Pukapuka, Nassau, and Penrhyn on February 8; however, they were dropped later that day as Cyclone Pat moved away.{{cite report|publisher=Fiji Meteorological Service |date=February 8, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Special Weather Bulletin Number Three for Northern Cooks On Tropical Cyclone Pat Issued From RSMC Nadi |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwku40.nffn..txt |archive-url=https://archive.today/20240522054156/https://www.webcitation.org/5nPrRYr9J?url=http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/WWKU40_201002080600.htm |archive-date=May 22, 2024 |location=Nadi, Fiji |url-status=dead }}{{cite report|publisher=Fiji Meteorological Service |date=February 8, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Special Weather Bulletin Number Six for Northern Cooks On Tropical Cyclone Pat Issued From RSMC Nadi |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwku40.nffn..txt |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100608035304/http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwku40.nffn..txt |archive-date=June 8, 2010 |location=Nadi, Fiji |url-status=dead }} Alerts on potential gales in the southern Cook Islands also began on February 8, including the islands of Atiu, Aitutaki, Manuae, Mitiaro, and Takutea.{{cite report|publisher=Fiji Meteorological Service |date=February 8, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Special Weather Bulletin Number One for Southern Cooks On Tropical Cyclone Pat Issued From RSMC Nadi |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwku41.nffn..txt |archive-url=https://archive.today/20240522054031/https://www.webcitation.org/5nPrb32N8?url=http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/WWKU41_201002080600.htm |archive-date=May 22, 2024 |location=Nadi, Fiji |url-status=dead }} Gale warnings for Aitutaki, Palmerston, and Rarotonga began on February 9 and extended to Mauke the next day.{{cite report|publisher=Fiji Meteorological Service |date=February 9, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Special Weather Bulletin Number Five for Southern Cooks On Tropical Cyclone Pat Issued From RSMC Nadi |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwku41.nffn..txt |archive-url=https://archive.today/20240522054231/https://www.webcitation.org/5nPsQhGze?url=http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/WWKU41_201002090900.htm |archive-date=May 22, 2024 |location=Nadi, Fiji |url-status=dead }}{{cite report|publisher=Fiji Meteorological Service |date=February 9, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Special Weather Bulletin Number Nine for Southern Cooks On Tropical Cyclone Pat Issued From RSMC Nadi |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwku41.nffn..txt |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100607004653/http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwku41.nffn..txt |archive-date=June 7, 2010 |location=Nadi, Fiji |url-status=dead }}{{cite report|publisher=Fiji Meteorological Service |date=February 10, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Special Weather Bulletin Number Thirteen for Southern Cooks On Tropical Cyclone Pat Issued From RSMC Nadi |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwku41.nffn..txt |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100607004653/http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwku41.nffn..txt |archive-date=June 7, 2010 |location=Nadi, Fiji |url-status=dead }} Early on February 10, a hurricane warning was issued for Aitutaki.{{cite report|publisher=Fiji Meteorological Service |date=February 10, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Special Weather Bulletin Number Ten for Southern Cooks On Tropical Cyclone Pat Issued From RSMC Nadi |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwku41.nffn..txt |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100607004653/http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwku41.nffn..txt |archive-date=June 7, 2010 |location=Nadi, Fiji |url-status=dead }} With the core of Pat's destructive winds forecast to pass close to or over the island, sustained winds of 140 km/h (85 mph) and gusts of 185 km/h (115 mph) were anticipated.{{cite report|publisher=Fiji Meteorological Service |date=February 10, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Special Weather Bulletin Number Fourteen for Southern Cooks On Tropical Cyclone Pat Issued From RSMC Nadi |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwku41.nffn..txt |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100607004653/http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwku41.nffn..txt |archive-date=June 7, 2010 |location=Nadi, Fiji |url-status=dead }} The aforementioned warnings were allowed to expire once Pat cleared the Cook Islands on February 11 and was no longer a threat.{{cite report|publisher=Fiji Meteorological Service |date=February 11, 2010 |access-date=April 25, 2015 |title=Special Weather Bulletin Number Nineteen for Southern Cooks On Tropical Cyclone Pat Issued From RSMC Nadi |url=http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwku41.nffn..txt |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100607004653/http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwku41.nffn..txt |archive-date=June 7, 2010 |location=Nadi, Fiji |url-status=dead }}

Emergency centers were prepped across the northern Cook Islands on February 8.{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=February 8, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Islanders in the northern Cooks prepare for third cyclone in ten days|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/188587/islanders-in-the-northern-cooks-prepare-for-third-cyclone-in-ten-days}} The Cook Islands Chapter of the Red Cross took early action with Cyclone Pat and began stockpiling relief supplies on February 9. Volunteers from the organization assisted elderly residents with preparation and evacuation on Aitutaki.{{cite report|work=International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies|publisher=ReliefWeb|date=February 11, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Cook Islands: Tropical Cyclone Pat Information bulletin n° 1|url=http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/6FA01EB60DA83E21C12576C70039CBDA-Full_Report.pdf}} Anticipating high winds, residents tied down homes with rope and wire and boarded up windows with shutters. Similar preparations took place on Rarotonga, though the main concern there was storm surge.{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=February 9, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Southern Cooks prepares for Cyclone Pat|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/188615/southern-cooks-prepares-for-cyclone-pat}} Government offices and schools there were closed on February 11.{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=February 11, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Ninety percent of houses on Aitutaki in Cook islands damaged by cyclone Pat|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/188637/ninety-percent-of-houses-on-aitutaki-in-cook-islands-damaged-by-cyclone-pat}}{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=February 11, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Aitutaki Resorts cope while local homes suffer following cyclone in Cook Islands|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/188647/aitutaki-resorts-cope-while-local-homes-suffer-following-cyclone-in-cook-islands}} Most residents and all tourists along the coast in Aitutaki evacuated inland to designated shelters.{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=February 10, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Cyclone Pat heading for southern Cook Islands|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/49082/cyclone-pat-heading-for-southern-cook-islands}} Authorities later announced that they were under-prepared for Cyclone Pat. The lack of an official process during an emergency was cited as a core issue.{{cite web|author=Australian Broadcasting Corporation|publisher=ReliefWeb|date=June 3, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Cook Islands evaluates cyclone response|url=http://reliefweb.int/report/cook-islands/cook-islands-evaluates-cyclone-response}}

Impact

Passing directly over Aitutaki on February 10, Pat produced wind gusts in excess of 185 km/h (115 mph) making it one of the most powerful storms ever experienced by residents on the island.{{cite report|work=Government of the Cook Islands|publisher=ReliefWeb|date=March 4, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Cyclone Pat Recovery and Reconstruction Plan 2010-2011|url=http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Cyclone%20Pat%20Recovery%20and%20Reconstruction%20Plan%202010_2011.pdf}} It is also considered among the most damaging on the island.{{cite news|newspaper=Carleton Place|date=February 10, 2010|page=1|title=Tropical cyclone slams Cook Islands atoll, then weakens, veers away from main island|location=Wellington, New Zealand}} {{subscription required|via=LexisNexis}} Aitutaki Mayor Tai Herman claimed the winds to be much stronger, with gusts up to 240 km/h (150 mph) during the worst of the storm.{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=February 11, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Mayor says Aitutaki storm worst in memory|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/188651/mayor-says-aitutaki-storm-worst-in-memory}} These winds were above building codes at the time, which required structures to be able to withstand winds of {{convert|176|km/h|mph|abbr=on}}.{{cite report|work=Ministry of Finance and Economic Management|publisher=Government of the Cook Islands|date=February 14, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Cyclone Pat Initial Assessment Report|url=http://www.mfem.gov.ck/images/Cyclone_Pat_initial_assessment_Report_-_BLDG_damages_-_14_FEB_2010.pdf}} Numerous trees and power lines fell amid the powerful winds, cutting power to the entirety of the island and severing communications.{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=February 11, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2010|title=State of disaster in the Cooks after Pat batters Aitutaki|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/188640/state-of-disaster-in-the-cooks-after-pat-batters-aitutaki}} According to the Government of the Cook Islands, 78 percent of the homes on the island sustained damage. Of the 277 affected homes, 59 sustained minor damage, 51 moderate, 95 major, and 72 were destroyed. Severity of damage correlated with the age of each home, with buildings over 25 years old suffering the greatest impact.{{cite report|work=Ministry of Infrastructure and Planning|publisher=PreventionWeb|date=March 15, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Detailed Damage Assessment of Aitutaki Residential Structures in the wake of Cyclone Pat|url=http://www.preventionweb.net/files/27076_detaileddamageassessmentreport10032.pdf}} Collateral damage took place when debris from damaged or destroyed structures became airborne and struck other buildings. Hardest hit were the villages of Nikaupara and Tautu. Costs to homes amounted to NZ$15 million (US$10.6 million).

One building at the Seventh Day Adventist church primary school collapsed while another sustained severe damage. Although damage occurred at Vaitau School, it was utilized as an evacuation shelter.{{cite report|work=United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs|publisher=ReliefWeb|date=February 15, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Cook Islands – Tropical Cyclone Pat Situation Report No. 3|url=http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/09B6AC0D43DB8BD9C12576CE00330455-Full_Report.pdf}} The primary school and college in Araura also suffered damage. The island's electrically run water supply was substantially effected. A total of 568 homes lost access to clean water, with many waters tanks damaged or destroyed.{{cite report|work=United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs|publisher=ReliefWeb|date=February 12, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Cook Islands – Tropical Cyclone Pat Situation Report No. 1|url=http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/0D8C4395B3195429C12576CE00324B37-Full_Report.pdf}} Aitutaki's only hospital fared well through the storm, with some roof damage and flooded rooms.{{cite web|work=World Health Organization|publisher=ReliefWeb|date=February 18, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Cook Islands Cyclone Situation Report 2|url=http://reliefweb.int/report/cook-islands/cook-islands-cyclone-situation-report-2}} Infrastructural losses totaled to NZ$2.3 million (US$1.6 million), mainly stemming from the power grid. The agricultural sector sustained extensive damage, amounting to US$1.5 million, with some crops experiencing a total loss. The severity of damage raised concerns about food security in the months after the storm. Particularly hard-hit was the mango crop, which was to be harvested two weeks after Pat struck.{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=February 12, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Clean-up operation resumes this morning on Aitutaki|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/188679/clean-up-operation-resumes-this-morning-on-aitutaki}} Approximately 60–75 percent of the coconut trees and 75 percent of java plum, mango, and kapok trees sustained damage. Most trees had at least one branch torn off and in most cases, multiple branches. Additionally, the blue lorikeet (Vini peruviana), a bird native to French Polynesia and the Cook Islands, population suffered dramatic losses due to the storm, with the population on Aitutaki dropping by more than 50 percent.{{cite report|author=Kimberly Kennings|work=University of Leeds|publisher=Lory Conservation Network|year=2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=The impact of Cyclone Pat on the Blue Lorikeet (Vini peruviana) population of Aitutaki, Cook Islands|url=http://www.savelories.org/images/blue_lorikeet_survey_2010%28sm%29.pdf|archive-date=March 4, 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304040759/http://www.savelories.org/images/blue_lorikeet_survey_2010(sm).pdf|url-status=dead}}

All told, losses from Pat amounted to US$13.7 million. However, Dr. Russell Howorth from the Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC) stated that damage reached US$8.2 million. In comparison, the collective damage from cyclones in the Cook Islands since 1955 was US$47 million according to the SPC.{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=August 4, 2011|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=SPC says Cook Islands has suffered millions of dollars from cyclone damage|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/198726/spc-says-cook-islands-has-suffered-millions-of-dollars-from-cyclone-damage}} In contrast to the severity of damage, no fatalities and only eight minor injuries took place.{{cite web|work=World Health Organization|publisher=ReliefWeb|date=February 12, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Cook Islands Cyclone Situation Report 1|url=http://reliefweb.int/report/cook-islands/cook-islands-cyclone-situation-report-1}}

Fearing similar damage to Aitutaki, a pre-emptive state of emergency was issued for Rarotonga. This was soon lifted as Pat ultimately spared Rarotonga and little damage took place there.{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=February 11, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Devastating cyclone bypasses Rarotonga|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/49092/devastating-cyclone-bypasses-rarotonga}}{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=February 12, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Cooks police say Aitutaki beginning to recover from cyclone shock|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/188676/cooks-police-say-aitutaki-beginning-to-recover-from-cyclone-shock}} Gale-force winds and heavy rains impacted Rarotonga and Palmerston islands. Large swells affected the uninhabited Penrhyn atoll, interfering with a study of marine turtles.{{cite web|author=Michael White|publisher=Seaturtle.org |year=2014 |access-date=4 August 2020 |title=Nesting census and genetic sampling of an unstudied marine turtle population at Tongareva Atoll, Northern Cook Islands |url=http://www.seaturtle.org/PDF/WhiteM_2015_Nestingcensusandgeneticsamplingofan.pdf |page=21}}

Aftermath

File:Cyclone Pat on February 10, 2010 at 1500z.jpg

Immediately following Pat's passage, the Government of the Cook Islands declared Aitutaki a disaster zone. In accordance with the FRANZ agreement,{{cite journal|author=Astrid Vachette|journal=International Journal of Emergency Management|volume=9|issue=3|year=2013|title=The FRANZ agreement: France's complex involvement in South Pacific regional cooperation on emergency management|issn=1471-4825|doi=10.1504/IJEM.2013.058543|pages=229–247}} the Government of New Zealand made an initial donation of NZ$350,000 for recovery efforts prior to the formal request for assistance on February 13. Following said request, New Zealand prepped a C-130 Hercules aircraft with emergency supplies and New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) personnel which arrived in Aitutaki on February 15. The aircraft made four trips in all which provided several tonnes of aid to the island. The NZDF priority was repair of schools and hospitals, though they assisted the Red Cross with clearing debris, restoring power, and setting up temporary shelters for affected residents. The lack of access to clean water prompted significant concern, and a water and sanitation expert from the Australian Red Cross flew in on February 12 to assist with restoration efforts. Immediate provisions of 600 water bottles were sent to the island on February 16. The Red Cross subsequently began pumping and filtering water, using a truck to distribute it to the island's villages. Through September 24, they provided over 100,000 litres of clean water. Distribution of 2,050 collapsible containers and 200 hygiene kits lessened dependency on the Red Cross's water pump.{{cite report|work=International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies|publisher=ReliefWeb|date=September 24, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Cook Islands: Tropical Cyclones DREF operation n° MDRCK002 Final Report|url=http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/07084CC79720BAF5492577A8001F309E-Full_Report.pdf}}

An extensive repair and recovery plan was enacted by the Government of the Cook Islands within a month of Cyclone Pat, which covered agricultural, infrastructural, and societal sectors. Financial restraints hindered the expected progress of this operation, with more than two-thirds of it not being funded by the final plan report on March 4. Of the NZ$15 million (US$10.6 million) in home damage, NZ$7.2 million (US$5.1 million) was covered. New Zealand later provided a NZ$5.5 million (US$3.9 million) grant to assist in this effort.{{cite web|author=Government of New Zealand|publisher=ReliefWeb|date=March 13, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=$5.5 million for reconstruction in Cook Islands|url=http://reliefweb.int/report/cook-islands/55-million-reconstruction-cook-islands}} Priority was placed on repairing damaged homes, with lesser emphasis on destroyed ones. Labor costs would ultimately reach NZ$6 million (US$4.2 million) for this project. Finalization of the funding for reconstruction was delayed and had not started by early June, with some residents still living in tents.{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=June 9, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Some Aitutaki residents in Cook Islands still living in tents, four months after cyclone|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/190773/some-aitutaki-residents-in-cook-islands-still-living-in-tents,-four-months-after-cyclone}} Farmers were provided with NZ$195,000 (US$138,000) worth of seeds, seedlings, and various supplies to jump-start agricultural recovery. Since the majority of the island's electrical grid was destroyed, an earlier plan to convert the network to underground cables was accelerated due to a convenience factor.

By February 17, 80 percent of the grid was restored; however, only 10 percent homes were actually connected.{{cite report|work=United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs|publisher=ReliefWeb|date=February 17, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Cook Islands – Tropical Cyclone Pat Situation Report No. 4|url=http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/B4C5B362338099E0852576CE0079CD0C-Full_Report.pdf}} The presence of dead vegetation left behind by the storm created fire hazards across the island, prompting the government to issue a ban on burning.{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=February 22, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Ban on fires on cyclone hit Aitutaki|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/188857/ban-on-fires-on-cyclone-hit-aitutaki}} The Seventh Day Adventist church primary school resumed classes on February 15 despite losing a building. All other schools suspended activities until February 22; however, the approach of Tropical Depression 11F delayed this until the following day.{{cite report|work=United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs|publisher=ReliefWeb|date=February 22, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Cook Islands – Tropical Cyclone Pat Situation Report No. 6|url=http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/3669193DA701A2BBC12576D3004FF8EF-Full_Report.pdf}} On February 23, the European Union provided US$110,000 in emergency funds to the Cook Islands.{{cite web|work=Australian Broadcasting Corporation|publisher=Reliefweb|date=February 23, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=EU emergency funds for cyclone-hit Cook Islands|url=http://reliefweb.int/report/cook-islands/eu-emergency-funds-cyclone-hit-cook-islands}} Habitat for Humanity later sought to assist in the rebuilding process in April, with a funding goal of NZ$300,000 (US$210,000).{{cite web|publisher=Habitat for Humanity|date=April 15, 2010|access-date=May 3, 2015|title=HFH New Zealand To Help Post-Cyclone Reconstruction In Fiji and Cook Islands|url=http://www.habitat.org/asiapacific/news/2010/04_15_2010_New_Zealand_Post_Cyclone_Rebuilding_In_Fiji_Cook_Islands.aspx|location=Auckland, New Zealand|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150924024519/http://www.habitat.org/asiapacific/news/2010/04_15_2010_New_Zealand_Post_Cyclone_Rebuilding_In_Fiji_Cook_Islands.aspx|archive-date=September 24, 2015|url-status=dead}}

Depression set in among members throughout the storm-battered community once the rebuilding process began. Fears of possible emigration stemming soon arose.{{cite web|publisher=Radio New Zealand |date=February 12, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Retaining residents big challenge for Aitutaki after cyclone destruction|url=http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/188664/retaining-residents-big-challenge-for-aitutaki-after-cyclone-destruction}} Mayor Tai Herman feared that survivors would consider selling their homes and leave the Cook Islands altogether. Even Prime Minister Jim Marurai was reported to be left in shock by the scale of damage.{{cite web|work=Australian Broadcasting Corporation|publisher=ReliefWeb|date=February 15, 2010|access-date=April 25, 2015|title=Cook Islands: Depression strikes cyclone hit Aitutaki residents|url=http://reliefweb.int/report/cook-islands/cook-islands-depression-strikes-cyclone-hit-aitutaki-residents}} The government enacted a three-month psychological support plan accordingly to help residents cope with the disaster and maintain social integrity among victims. Through September, 265 people took advantage of this program.