Energy blackmail
{{Short description|Strategic manipulation of energy resources for political or economic gain}}
Energy blackmail is, as defined by the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS), a strategic manipulation of energy resources for political or economic gain. It involves primarily oil and natural gas, but also potentially other fuels such as nuclear fuel.{{cite web|url=https://www.diis.dk/en/research/energy-as-a-weapon-decoding-blackmail-tactics-in-europe|title=Energy as a weapon - decoding blackmail tactics in Europe|first1=Veronika|last1=Slakaityte|first2=Izabela|last2=Surwillo|publisher=Danish Institute for International Studies|date=9 January 2024}} Energy blackmail can serve as a potential alternative offensive strategy that is cheaper than military intervention.{{Cite book |last=Kelanic |first=Rosemary A. |url=https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.7591/9781501749216/html |title=Black Gold and Blackmail: Oil and Great Power Politics |date=2020-05-05 |publisher=Cornell University Press |isbn=978-1-5017-4921-6 |doi=10.7591/9781501749216}} Energy blackmail has been used by countries to leverage their energy resources for decades, but the term was popularised after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 to refer to Russian statements and actions in respect to its relationship with other states and with the European Union (EU).{{cite book|url=https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-97-2231-0|title=Global Political Economy, Geopolitics and International Security: The World in Permacrisis|editor-first1=Omprakash|editor-last1=Mishra|editor-first2=Souradeep|editor-last2=Sen|chapter-url=https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-97-2231-0_10|chapter=Leverage in Energy Security: Weaponising For Good and Bad|first=Cauvery|last=Ganapathy|publisher=Palgrave Macmillan|page=176|year=2024|isbn=978-981-97-2230-3|doi=10.1007/978-981-97-2231-0|quote=Given that there is evidence now to suggest that by March 2021 (Kramer 2021), President Putin had made up his mind regarding the invasion of Ukraine in the coming spring, the decision by the Russians to reduce the supply of gas to Europe, could well account for a case of energy blackmail.}}{{cite journal|url=https://pism.pl/publications/how-the-war-in-ukraine-impacts-nato-policy-in-the-black-sea-region|title=How the War in Ukraine Impacts NATO Policy in the Black Sea Region|first=Filip|last=Bryjka|publisher=Polish Institute of International Affairs|journal=PISM Bulletin|volume=57|issue=2176|date=12 May 2023|page=1|quote=Through hybrid methods, Russia is destabilising the internal situation in Moldova where it uses energy blackmail, disinformation, and financing of protests to undermine the pro-European Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) government and replace it with the pro-Russian Şor Party.}}{{cite web|url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4627566|title=Russia's invasion of Ukraine has cemented the European Union's commitment to carbon pricing|first=Jacob Funk|last=Kirkegaard|publisher=Peterson Institute for International Economics|series=Policy Brief 23-13|date=30 September 2023|page=1|quote=Despite the energy shock of 2022, the price of EU carbon emissions permits was maintained in the €85 per ton range once Russia's energy blackmail became apparent in late 2021.}}{{cite magazine|url=http://turkishpolicy.com/files/articlepdf/hybrid-war-the-eastern-partnership-waiting-for-a-correlation_en_6878.pdf|title=Hybrid War & the Eastern Partnership: Waiting for a Correlation|first=Hanna|last=Shelest|magazine=Turkish Policy Quarterly|volume=14|issue=3|date=13 December 2015|page=46|quote=This pressure in the form of trade wars, energy blackmail, discreditable propaganda, diplomatic deceit, and coercion to join alternative regional integration projects has been felt by almost all Eastern Partnership states (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine).}}{{cite journal|url=https://www.fpri.org/article/2024/10/contesting-russia-the-baltic-perspective/|title=Contesting Russia: The Baltic Perspective|first=Indra|last=Ekmanis|publisher=Foreign Policy Research Institute|journal=Baltic Bulletin|series=Eurasia Program|date=28 October 2024|quote=The Baltic states, in turn, have responded by turning areas of risk into areas of expertise: for example, [...] on Energy Security in Lithuania (2012), where previous dependency on Russia left the country vulnerable to energy blackmail;}}{{cite journal|url=https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/140606-Korybko-SouthStream.pdf|title=The Prospects for the South Stream Pipeline after the Ukrainian Crisis|first=Andrew|last=Korybko|journal=Foreign Policy Journal|date=6 June 2014}}{{cite journal|url=https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/12793-russia-pressures-armenia-to-join-customs-union.html|title=Russia Pressures Armenia to Join Customs Union|first=Stephen|last=Blank|publisher=Central Asia-Caucasus Institute|journal=The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst|date=27 August 2013|quote=Moscow's two abiding goals are to integrate the entire post-Soviet space under its domination and as part of that larger multi-dimensional process, ensure that it is the only security manager in the Caucasus. Not only is it now using energy blackmail against Armenia; [...]}} However, energy blackmail does not only impact the importing countries, but rather creates reciprocal harm to the political-economic states of both countries involved. {{Cite journal |last=LaBelle |first=Michael Carnegie |date=2023 |title=Energy as a weapon of war: Lessons from 50 years of energy interdependence |url=https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1758-5899.13235 |journal=Global Policy |language=en |volume=14 |issue=3 |pages=531–547 |doi=10.1111/1758-5899.13235 |issn=1758-5899|hdl=20.500.14018/14058 |hdl-access=free }}
History
In 1960, OPEC was founded in Baghdad by Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela,{{Cite news |date=24 May 2024 |title=What is OPEC+ and how does it affect oil prices? |url=https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/what-is-opec-how-does-it-affect-oil-prices-2024-05-24/ |access-date=16 January 2025 |work=Reuters}} as a cartel to fix the price of oil on the world market.{{Cite news |date=2022-05-03 |title=Opec: What is it and what is happening to oil prices? |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61188579 |access-date=2025-01-16 |language=en-GB}} In 1973 OPEC imposed an embargo on the United States and other countries that supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War, including Netherlands, Portugal, and South Africa.{{cite web |url=https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/oil-embargo |title=OPEC Oil Embargo 1973–1974 |publisher=U.S. Department of State, Office of the Historian |access-date=January 16, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140306225604/http://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/oil-embargo |archive-date=March 6, 2014 |url-status=live }} With the help of American proliferation aid, Israel was able to halt Egyptian and Syrian forces that were receiving support from the Soviet Union. As a result of Israel's new resources, OPEC member nations imposed the embargo to disincentivize the US from continuing aid to Israel. After physical warfare ended because of ceasefire, the embargo continued shortly after causing further damage to the US energy sector.{{Cite web |date=2023-09-24 |title=The Yom Kippur War and the OPEC Oil Embargo {{!}} Origins |url=https://origins.osu.edu/read/yom-kippur-war-and-opec-oil-embargo |access-date=2025-03-18 |website=origins.osu.edu |language=en}} The oil embargo increased the price of oil from $2.90 to $11.65 US dollars per barrel.{{Cite web |last=by Michael Corbett |title=Oil Shock of 1973–74 {{!}} Federal Reserve History |url=https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/oil-shock-of-1973-74 |access-date=2025-03-18 |website=www.federalreservehistory.org |language=en}}
Russia
Russia has a notable history of using energy blackmail, especially towards the EU and most recently Ukraine. Russia is one of the largest oil exporters, producing 11% of the words oil as of 2023, just behind the United States and Saudi Arabia.{{Cite web |date=2025-02-12 |title=Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) |url=https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&t=6 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250212003929/https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&t=6 |url-status=dead |archive-date=2025-02-12 |access-date=2025-03-18 }} The EU imports 54% of Russia's oil, making them Russia's biggest buyer.{{Cite web |last=Katinas |first=Petras |date=2024-07-12 |title=June 2024 — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions |url=https://energyandcleanair.org/june-2024-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/ |access-date=2025-03-18 |website=Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air |language=en-US}} However, Russia and the EU have developed a codependent relationship, making the threat of energy blackmail from Russia highly contentious. Russia's advantage over the EU lies in NATO, in that their relationship could jeopardize the integrity and honor of the NATO alliance if the EU is affiliated and reliant on Russia for energy.{{Cite journal |last=Smith Stegen |first=Karen |date=2011-10-01 |title=Deconstructing the “energy weapon”: Russia's threat to Europe as case study |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421511005866?casa_token=ACUFN9BJrPoAAAAA:cQU4QLRrUYJbCkEDm62EHZi_fc1XuBxLRLNLDieStFaQkXLLvuEFLOmu7FC1hm4fCDng-mKdTGk |journal=Energy Policy |series=Sustainability of biofuels |volume=39 |issue=10 |pages=6505–6513 |doi=10.1016/j.enpol.2011.07.051 |issn=0301-4215}}
Further, the energy sector of Russia is largely owned and controlled by the government, making it a useful tool for political coercion. One of the leading companies Gazprom, claims to be an independent entity even though the government owns 51% of the company. Because of this, Gazprom may be viewed to be a political asset to the Kremlin who have utilized energy as a weapon beginning with the natural gas shut-offs to Ukraine with the first one in 2006.
In 2017, the United States pressured China and other members of the United Nations Security Council to end oil shipments to North Korea in an effort to stop them from continuing their ICBM programme.{{Cite news |last=Sanger |first=David E. |last2=Sang-Hun |first2=Choe |date=2017-09-04 |title=U.S. Urges Fuel Cutoff for North Korea, Saying It’s ‘Begging for War’ |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/04/world/asia/north-korea-missile-test.html |access-date=2025-01-16 |work=The New York Times |language=en-US |issn=0362-4331}}{{Cite web |last=Zhao |first=Tong |date=2017-12-01 |title=Why an oil embargo won’t stop North Korea |url=https://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/01/opinions/china-north-korea-oil-embargo/index.html |access-date=2025-01-16 |website=CNN |language=en}}{{Cite web |title=Sorry, an Oil Embargo Won’t Lead to North Korea’s Capitulation |url=https://thediplomat.com/2017/09/sorry-an-oil-embargo-wont-lead-to-north-koreas-capitulation/ |access-date=2025-01-16 |website=thediplomat.com |language=en-US}} In 2024 the United States and South Korea established a task force to block North Korea from acquiring oil.{{Cite news |last=Smith |first=Josh |date=27 March 2024 |title=US, South Korea set up task force to block North Korea oil shipments |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/us-south-korea-set-up-task-force-block-north-korea-oil-shipments-2024-03-27/ |access-date=16 January 2025 |work=Reuters}}
In May 2023, the European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson said that Russian President Vladimir Putin's energy blackmail of Europe had failed.{{Cite news |title=Putin's energy blackmail of Europe has failed, commissioner says |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putins-energy-blackmail-europe-has-failed-commissioner-says-2023-05-18/ |archive-url=http://web.archive.org/web/20230725053613/https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putins-energy-blackmail-europe-has-failed-commissioner-says-2023-05-18/ |archive-date=2023-07-25 |access-date=2025-01-16 |work=Reuters |language=en-US}}
In December 2024, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, accused Robert Fico, the prime minister of Slovakia of opening "a second front" against Ukraine on Putin's orders, in response to Robert Fico's threats to cut off electricity from Slovakia to Ukraine.{{Cite web |title=Zelenskyy on Slovak PM's blackmail: 'It appears that Putin gave Fico the order' |url=https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/zelenskyy-on-slovak-pm-s-blackmail-it-appears-1735390390.html |access-date=2025-01-16 |website=RBC-Ukraine |language=en}}{{Cite news |last=Hunder |first=Max |date=28 December 2024 |title=Ukraine's Zelenskiy hits back at Slovak PM Fico as gas transit dispute deepens |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-zelenskiy-hits-back-slovak-pm-fico-gas-transit-dispute-deepens-2024-12-28/ |access-date=16 January 2025 |work=Reuters}}{{Cite web |date=2024-12-28 |title=Putin 'appears to have ordered Slovakia's Fico to open second energy front against Ukraine,' Zelensky says |url=https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-appears-ordered-slovakias-fico-162156348.html |access-date=2025-01-16 |website=Yahoo News |language=en-US}} Robert Fico threatened to cut off energy supplies after Ukraine refused to renew the deal with Russia regarding transport of gas to European Union countries through Ukrainian territory.{{Cite news |date=27 December 2024 |title=Slovakia to consider reciprocal measures if Ukraine stops Russian gas transit, Fico says |url=https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/slovakia-consider-reciprocal-measures-if-ukraine-stops-russian-gas-transit-fico-2024-12-27/ |access-date=16 January 2025 |work=Reuters}}
In January 2025, the Moldovan government accused Russia of blackmail in regards to gas supplies to the unrecognized breakaway state of Transnistria in its territory, arguing that Russia sought to provoke an energy crisis that would undermine Moldova's pro-Western policies at the time of the 2025 Moldovan parliamentary election later that year. Russia denied the allegations.{{Cite news |last=Maynes |first=Charles |date=9 January 2025 |title=Here's what's behind Russia cutting off its last gas line to Europe |url=https://www.npr.org/2025/01/09/nx-s1-5247514/russia-gas-moldova-transnistria-ukraine-war |access-date=16 January 2025 |work=NPR}}{{cite news|url=https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/eu-commission-chief-accuses-russia-of-energy-blackmail/3395695|title=EU Commission chief accuses Russia of energy 'blackmail'|first=Yasin|last=Güngör|newspaper=Anadolu Agency|date=16 November 2024}}