Football Outsiders#DVOA

Football Outsiders was launched in August 2003 by Aaron Schatz, with two regular columns, one of which used an early version of the proprietary DVOA statistic. The original purpose of the site was to disprove a statement by Boston Globe reporter Ron Borges that the 2002 New England Patriots failed to make the postseason because they could not establish the run.{{Citation needed|date=December 2023}} Over the course of time, the site added more writers, and hosted Gregg Easterbrook for part of 2003.

Between 2004 and 2005, the site introduced new statistics such as Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement (DPAR, later Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, DYAR) and Adjusted Line Yards (ALY). In 2005, the site began to cross-publish many of its columns on FOXsports.com. In 2005, Football Outsiders also took over publication of Pro Football Prospectus, a book giving a preview of the upcoming NFL season. In 2009, the annual was renamed Football Outsiders Almanac.({{ISBN|1448648459}})

Currently, the site has incorporated the 1981–2022 NFL seasons into their statistics.

Football Outsiders has devised a series of proprietary formulas to calculate different advanced metrics.

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average. According to Football Outsiders, DVOA "breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent. ... Football has one objective -- to get to the end zone -- and two ways to achieve that, by gaining yards and getting first downs. These two goals need to be balanced to determine a player's value or a team's performance."[http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#DVOA Football Outsiders: DVOA explained]

There is a separate DVOA measurement for special teams, which "compare[s] each kick or punt to the league average for based on the point value of field position at the position of each kick, catch, and return."[http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#specialteams Football Outsider: Special Teams]

DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) calculates each player's cumulative value above or below a "replacement-level" alternative. DYAR differs from DVOA in calculating a player's total value through the course of a year, and not on a play-for-play rate. States Football Outsiders, "DVOA, by virtue of being a percentage or rate statistic, doesn’t take into account the cumulative value of having a player producing at a league-median level over the course of an above-average number of plays. By definition, a median level of performance is better than that provided by half of the league and the ability to maintain that level of performance while carrying a heavy work load is very valuable indeed."[http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#DYAR Football Outsiders: DYAR explained]

Adjusted Line Yards (ALY) "differentiate[s] between the contribution of the running back and the contribution of the offensive line." ALY attempts to "separate the effect that the running back has on a particular play from the effect of the offensive line (and other offensive blockers) and the effect of the defense. ... Yardage ends up falling into roughly the following combinations: Losses, 0-4 yards, 5-10 yards, and 11+ yards. In general, the offensive line is 20% more responsible for lost yardage than it is for yardage gained up to four yards, but 50% less responsible for yardage gained from 5-10 yards, and not responsible for yardage past that. Thus, the creation of Adjusted Line Yards."[http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#ALY Football Outsiders: Adjusted Line Yards explained]

Drive Stats calculate a team's average success rate on a possession-by-possession basis: "[E]ach team's total number of drives as well as average yards per drive, points per drive, touchdowns per drive, punts per drive, and turnovers per drive, interceptions per drive, and fumbles lost per drive. LOS/Drive represents average starting field position (line of scrimmage) per drive from the offensive point of view. Drive stats are given for offense and defense, with NET representing simply offense minus defense."[http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#drivestats Football Outsiders: Drive Stats]

{{main|Pythagorean expectation}}

Another metric Football Outsiders uses is Pythagorean projection, which estimates wins in a season by a formula originally conceived by baseball analyst Bill James, that takes the square of team points, and divides it by the sum of the squares of team points scored and allowed.

The 2011 edition of Football Outsiders AlmanacFootball Outsiders Almanac 2011 ({{ISBN|978-1-4662-4613-3}}), p.xviii states, "From 1988 through 2004, 11 of 16 Super Bowls were won by the team that led the NFL in Pythagorean wins, while only seven were won by the team with the most actual victories. Super Bowl champions that led the league in Pythagorean wins but not actual wins include the 2004 Patriots, 2000 Ravens, 1999 Rams and 1997 Broncos."

Although Football Outsiders Almanac acknowledges that the formula had been less-successful in picking Super Bowl participants from 2005 to 2008, it reasserted itself in 2009 and 2010.

Furthermore, "[t]he Pythagorean projection is also still a valuable predictor of year-to-year improvement. Teams that win a minimum of one full game more than their Pythagorean projection tend to regress the following year; teams that win a minimum of one full game less than their Pythagorean projection tend to improve the following year, particularly if they were at or above .500 despite their underachieving. For example, the 2008 New Orleans Saints went 8-8 despite 9.5 Pythagorean wins, hinting at the improvement that came with the next year's championship season."

Each year, Football Outsiders calculates the best and worst teams, per play, with the DVOA metric (see above). Below is a list of the highest- and lowest-rated teams in the league in each year from 1978 to 2019.

Since Football Outsiders shut down in 2023, DVOA stats have been moved to FTN Fantasy; a historical archive of DVOA rankings dating back to 1978 is available.[https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/dvoa-historical-archive NFL Archives - FTN (For the Numbers)]

From 2005 through 2008, Football Outsiders published the Pro Football Prospectus book each year before the football season began. It included an essay for each team analyzing the previous season, evaluating off-season moves, and projecting future performance.

In 2009, Football Outsiders did not publish a Pro Football Prospectus volume, but instead produced the self-published Football Outsiders Almanac 2009. The reason for this is explained in the book:

So why the name change, and why aren’t we in bookstores?

For those who don’t know, our first four books were published through an agreement with Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, the company that owns Baseball Prospectus (as well as the expansion projects Basketball Prospectus and Puck Prospectus). It was PEV that had the publishing contract (first with Workman, then Plume). This year, for various reasons, Plume decided they no longer wanted to publish books related to other sports besides baseball. Other publishers were interested in doing our book, but by the time Plume made their decision, it was too late to get on the publication schedule for 2009.{{cite web | last=Allen | first=Bruce | title=Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 Interview With Aaron Schatz | url=http://www.bostonsportsmedia.com/2009/07/football-outsiders-almanac-200 | website=Boston Sports Media Watch | date=July 29, 2009}}

Editor-in-Chief: Aaron Schatz

Senior Editor: Vince Verhei

Senior Writer: Mike Tanier

• Pro Football Forecast 2004Much of this volume was written by Football Outsiders (FO) authors, but the book itself is not officially a FO publication. See [http://www.footballoutsiders.com/store/pfp-2004-the-lost-year "Pro Football Prospectus 2004: The Lost Year"]. ({{ISBN|1574886584}})
• Pro Football Prospectus 2005 ({{ISBN|0761140190}})
• Pro Football Prospectus 2006 ({{ISBN|0761142177}})
• Pro Football Prospectus 2007 ({{ISBN|0452288479}})
• Pro Football Prospectus 2008 ({{ISBN|0452289734}})
• Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 ({{ISBN|1448648459}})
• Football Outsiders Almanac 2010 ({{ISBN|1453671188}})
• Football Outsiders Almanac 2011 ({{ISBN|978-1-4662-4613-3}})
• Football Outsiders Almanac 2012 ({{ISBN|978-1-4782-0152-6}})

{{More footnotes needed|date=May 2011}}

• Bob Glauber, http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/glauber-s-nfl-hot-reads-1.811959/a-football-outsider-s-perspective-1.1413423 "Glauber's NFL Hot Reads"], Newsday.com (September 1, 2009).
• "Football Outsider: Football Statistics from Outside the Box—An Interview with Aaron Schatz," [http://sportstechnow.com/2008/01/football-outsiders-football-statistics-from-outside-the-box/ SportsTechNow.com (January 25, 2008)].
• Will Leitch, [http://deadspin.com/5345991/a-conversation-with-football-outsiders-eic-aaron-schatz "A Conversation with Football Outsiders EIC Aaron Schatz"], Deadspin, August 26, 2009.
• [http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/21/q-a-with-mike-tanier-of-football-outsiders/ "Q.&A. with Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders,"] in The Fifth Down, New York Times N.F.L. Blog, The New York Times, September 21, 2009.

• The Hidden Game of Football
• Advanced Football Analytics
• numberFire

• [http://www.footballoutsiders.com Football Outsiders Website] (Link not working)
• [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKhpWFw4scM Aaron Schatz on ESPN]

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