Hurricane Paul (2012)

{{Infobox weather event

| name = Hurricane Paul

| image = Paul Oct 15 2012 1815Z.jpg

| caption = Hurricane Paul at peak intensity, after rapid deepening on October 15

| formed = October 13, 2012

| low = October 17, 2012

| dissipated = October 18, 2012

}}{{Infobox weather event/NWS

| winds = 105

| pressure = 959

}}{{Infobox weather event/Effects

| year = 2012

| fatalities = None reported

| damage = 15600000

| areas = Baja California Peninsula, Northwestern Mexico

| refs =

}}{{Infobox weather event/Footer

| season = 2012 Pacific hurricane season

}}

Hurricane Paul was a strong tropical cyclone that threatened the Baja California peninsula during October 2012. The sixteenth tropical cyclone, tenth hurricane, and fifth major hurricane of the season, Paul originated from a trough of low pressure west of the coastline of Mexico on October 13. While turning towards the north, the system quickly organized, reaching hurricane status in the morning of October 15. By that afternoon, Paul had reached its peak intensity as a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS) with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/h), but began to weaken rapidly thereafter due to land interaction and strong wind shear. Late on October 17, Paul degenerated into a remnant low. The remnants of Paul later moved ashore along the central Baja California Peninsula, before dissipating on October 18.

Prior to the storm's arrival in Baja California Sur, hurricane watches and warnings were issued for coastal locations. Hundreds of homes were damaged across the region and damage to infrastructure was significant. Power outages also occurred across the region as a result of Hurricane Paul. A total of 400 homes were destroyed, and 300 others were flooded. Damage totaled $15.6 million (2012 USD).

Meteorological history

On September 28, a tropical wave emerged off the western coast of Africa. Tracking westward, the northern portion of this wave axis led to the formation of Tropical Storm Oscar on October 3 while the southern portion of the wave continued across the central Atlantic. While approaching the Lesser Antilles the following day, the disturbance lost most of its thunderstorm activity and remained poorly organized across the remainder of its trek through the Caribbean Sea and Central America. On October 10, the wave emerged into the East Pacific basin, at which time the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began monitoring the system.{{cite web|author=Michael J. Brennan|title=Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201210101140/index.php?basin=epac¤t_issuance=201210101140|work=National Hurricane Center|publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|date=October 10, 2012|access-date=September 21, 2013}}{{cite report|author=Robbie J. Berg|title=Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Paul|url={{NHC TCR url|id=EP162012_Paul}}|work=National Hurricane Center|publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|date=January 4, 2013|access-date=September 21, 2013|format=PDF}}

Characterized with disorganized convection, a broad surface trough formed in association with the wave the same day and environmental conditions were expected to favor gradual development.{{cite web|author=Michael J. Brennan|title=Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201210101732/index.php?basin=epac¤t_issuance=201210101732|work=National Hurricane Center|publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|date=October 10, 2012|access-date=September 21, 2013}} Initially, upper-level winds were only marginally favorable, and although the thunderstorms remained disorganized, the NHC estimated a 50% chance for development by early on October 12.{{cite report|author=Todd Kimberlain|date=October 12, 2012|title=Tropical Weather Outlook|access-date=October 15, 2012|publisher=National Hurricane Center|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/TWOEP/2012/TWOEP.201210120537.txt|format=TXT}} The next day, the system became better defined,{{cite report|author=John Cangialosi|date=October 13, 2012|title=Tropical Weather Outlook|access-date=October 15, 2012|publisher=National Hurricane Center|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/TWOEP/2012/TWOEP.201210131137.txt|format=TXT}} and, the NHC noted that the system was on the verge of becoming a tropical cyclone.{{cite web|author=John P. Cangialosi|title=Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201210131732/index.php?basin=epac¤t_issuance=201210131732|work=National Hurricane Center|publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|date=October 13, 2012|access-date=September 21, 2013}} Although operationally not classified until 21:00 UTC on October 13, a post-season analysis conducted on the system revealed that it attained enough organization to be considered a tropical depression at 12:00 UTC, while positioned about 645 mi (1040 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas.

Tracking westward around the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge,{{cite report|author=John Cangialosi|date=October 13, 2012|title=Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 1|publisher=National Hurricane Center|access-date=October 15, 2012|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/ep16/ep162012.discus.001.shtml?}} the depression steadily strengthened, intensifying into Tropical Storm Paul six hours after designation. On October 14, an upper-level low positioned west of the Baja California peninsula led to a break in the ridge which subsequently caused the tropical cyclone to slow and turn northward. During this change in direction, favorable atmospheric conditions allowed for a quick rate of intensification. Convective bands in association with Paul gained curvature and a central dense overcast feature became visible on satellite imagery.{{cite report|author=John P. Cangialosi|title=Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 5|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/ep16/ep162012.discus.005.shtml|work=National Hurricane Center|publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|date=October 14, 2012|access-date=September 21, 2013}} In addition, a series of microwave passes late in evening revealed a nearly closed eyewall.{{cite report|author=Robbie J. Berg|title=Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 6|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/ep16/ep162012.discus.006.shtml|work=National Hurricane Center|publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|date=October 14, 2012|access-date=September 21, 2013}} At 06:00 UTC on October 15, Paul was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane on the SSHWS while located approximately 595 mi (960 km) southwest of Cabo San Lucas. Banding features continued to become better defined to the south and east of the center while convection in the eyewall cooled to {{convert|-85|C|F|abbr=on}}.{{cite report|author=John P. Cangialosi|author2=Stacy R. Stewart|title=Hurricane Paul Discussion Number 7|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/ep16/ep162012.discus.007.shtml|work=National Hurricane Center|publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|date=October 15, 2012|access-date=September 21, 2013}} The cloud pattern became increasingly symmetrical,{{cite report|author=Todd Kimberlain|author2=Daniel Brown|date=October 15, 2012|title=Hurricane Paul Discussion Number 8|publisher=National Hurricane Center|access-date=October 15, 2012|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/ep16/ep162012.discus.008.shtml?}} and an eye became intermittently visible on satellite imagery later that morning.{{cite report|author=Todd B. Kimberlain|title=Hurricane Paul Discussion Number 9|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/ep16/ep162012.discus.009.shtml|work=National Hurricane Center|publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|date=October 14, 2012|access-date=September 21, 2013}} Following an abrupt increase in satellite intensity estimates, Paul was upgraded to a Category 3 major hurricane on the SSHWS, the fifth of the season, at 18:00 UTC on October 15. Simultaneously, the hurricane also estimated to have attained its peak intensity of {{convert|120|mph|km/h|round=5}}.{{EPAC hurricane best track}}

Upon reaching its peak intensity, the hurricane began to steadily weaken. The cold ring of thunderstorm activity surrounding the eye warmed significantly, while the eye became cloud-filled and cool.{{cite report|author=Robbie J. Berg|author2=Richard J. Pasch|title=Hurricane Paul Discussion Number 10|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/ep16/ep162012.discus.010.shtml|work=National Hurricane Center|publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|date=October 16, 2012|access-date=September 21, 2013}} The circulation became tilted north-northeast with height, likely a byproduct of south-southwesterly wind shear,{{cite report|author=John P. Cangialosi|author2=Stacy R. Stewart|title=Hurricane Paul Discussion Number 11|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/ep16/ep162012.discus.011.shtml|work=National Hurricane Center|publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|date=October 16, 2012|access-date=September 21, 2013}} and the system was downgraded to a Category 2 hurricane at 12:00 UTC on October 16. Accelerating northwestward within deep southwesterly flow, continued unfavorable upper-level winds caused the low-level center to rapidly separate from the convective mass.{{cite report|author=Lixion A. Avila|title=Hurricane Paul Discussion Number 14|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/ep16/ep162012.discus.014.shtml|work=National Hurricane Center|publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|date=October 16, 2012|access-date=September 21, 2013}} At 18:00 UTC, Paul was downgraded to a Category 1 hurricane; by this time, little deep thunderstorm activity remained near the center. Six hours later, the system was downgraded to a tropical storm while it passed {{convert|50|mi|km|abbr=on}} west of Baja California Sur. The remainder of shower and thunderstorm activity dissipated early on October 17 and Paul was declared a post-tropical cyclone at 06:00 UTC. Following declassification, the system moved ashore Baja California Sur near Bahía Asunción while maintaining gale-force winds. On the next day, at 06:00 UTC, the remnant low-level circulation dissipated about 70 mi (110 km) northwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.

Preparations

File:Paul Oct 16 2012 2025Z.jpg

When the system first posed a threat to Mexico at 09:00 UTC on October 15, a tropical storm watch was posted for a portion of the central Baja California Peninsula. Six hours later, the watch was upgraded into a tropical storm warning, while tropical storm watches were issued to the north and south of the warning, respectively. At 21:00 UTC on October 15, the tropical storm warnings was upgraded into a hurricane warning, while a tropical storm warning was declared along the eastern side of the peninsula. Early the next day, the tropical storm warning was extended southward, to include the capital of La Paz. On the afternoon of October 16, when the threat to the area increased, a hurricane warnings was posted for the eastern side of the state. Early the next day, all hurricane warnings were dropped, as Paul had deteriorated into a tropical storm. By 15:00 UTC, all watches and warnings had been discontinued.

Prior to the arrival of Paul, activities were suspended for small craft in the ports of Cabo San Lucas, La Paz, San Carlos, Maria Magdalena, and Puerto Lopez Mateos.{{cite news|title=BCS closes ports in 3 municipalities|url=http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/876820.html|access-date=October 16, 2012|newspaper=El Universal|date=October 15, 2012|author=Gladys Rodriguez|language=es|archive-date=October 20, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121020082547/http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/876820.html|url-status=dead}} Moreover, all activities were closed in the port of Mazatlan.{{cite news|title=Mazatlan closed by Hurricane Paul Recommend caution in costs and states of Baja California and northwestern|url=http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/876854.html|access-date=October 16, 2012|newspaper=El Universal|date=October 15, 2012|author=Gladys Rodriguez|language=es|archive-date=October 19, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121019064535/http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/876854.html|url-status=dead}} Twelve municipalities in Sonora were placed under a "green" alert,{{cite news|title=Alerta amarilla en Sonora por "Paul"|url=http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/877005.html|access-date=June 16, 2014|newspaper=El Universal|date=October 16, 2012|language=es|archive-date=October 18, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121018193506/https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/877005.html|url-status=dead}} though this was quickly upgraded to a "yellow" alert,{{cite news|title=Sonora decreta alerta verde por huracán Paul|url=http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/877082.html|access-date=June 16, 2014|newspaper=El Universal|date=October 16, 2012|language=es|archive-date=July 14, 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140714133143/http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/877082.html|url-status=dead}} and later into an "orange" alert.{{cite news|title=Sonora acitvada alerta naranja de Paul|url=http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/877180.html|access-date=June 16, 2014|newspaper=El Universal|date=October 16, 2012|language=es|archive-date=July 14, 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140714173944/http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/877180.html|url-status=dead}} A "blue" alert also declared for Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit.

On October 16, a "yellow" alert (moderate risk) was activated for Baja California Sur.{{cite news|url=http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/876914.html|title=BCS acuerda instalación de albergues ante Paul|date=October 16, 2012|newspaper=El Universal|access-date=June 16, 2014|language=es|archive-date=October 20, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121020082552/https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/876914.html|url-status=dead}} State civil protection authorities brought teams from the federal electricity and water commissions to help maintain services during the storm. In addition, the state government opened 143 shelters,{{cite news|agency=Associated Press|title=Hurricane Paul races toward Baja peninsula, causing flooding, stranding some drivers|date=August 16, 2014|last=Ignacio Martinez}} including 11 in the towns of Cabo San Lucas, La Paz, Ciudad Constitución, and Loreto, which had a capacity of 30,617 persons. Furthermore, 125 cranes and 75 automobiles were mobilized.{{cite news|url=http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/876986.html|title=Evacuan a familias por cercanía de Paul en BCS|date=October 16, 2012|newspaper=El Universal|access-date=June 16, 2014|language=es|archive-date=October 27, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121027144140/https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/876986.html|url-status=dead}} Statewide, 400 soldiers were deployed.{{cite news|url=http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/876934.html|title=Ejército aplica plan DN-3 en BCS por Paul|date=October 16, 2012|newspaper=El Universal|access-date=June 16, 2014|language=es|archive-date=October 19, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121019064635/https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/876934.html|url-status=dead}} Roughly 500 residents in Comondú were evacuated to shelter.{{cite news|url=http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/estados/88243.html|title=Paul pega a Baja California; desalojan a 500 pobladores|date=October 17, 2012|newspaper=El Universal|access-date=June 16, 2014|language=es|archive-date=October 18, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121018064432/https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/estados/88243.html|url-status=dead}}

Impact and aftermath

During its formative stages, Paul passed near Clarion Island, where winds of {{convert|58|mph|km/h|abbr=on}} and gusts of {{convert|77|mph|km/h|abbr=on}} were recorded. On nearby Socorro Island, {{convert|1.98|in|mm|abbr=on}} of rain fell during the storm's passage.

Even though there were no reports of hurricane-force winds onshore the Baja California Peninsula (the storm weakened to a tropical storm when it made its closet approach to the region), hurricane-force winds did approach the peninsula, and there were widespread reports of gale-force winds. In Puerto Cortes, peak winds of {{Convert|51|mph|km/h|abbr=on}} and gusts up to {{convert|72|mph|km/h|abbr=on}} were observed, as well as a peak rainfall total over {{convert|6.02|in|mm|abbr=on}}. Furthermore, a minimum barometric pressure of {{convert|973.4|mbar|inHg|abbr=on}} was observed in Cabo San Lucas.

The outer rainbands of the system first brought rains to Baja California Sur on October 15, resulting in flooding.{{cite news|title=BCS monitored rivers to the presence of Hurricane Paul|url=http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/876764.html|access-date=October 16, 2012|newspaper=El Universal|date=October 15, 2012|author=Gladys Rodriguez|language=es|archive-date=October 20, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121020082901/http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/876764.html|url-status=dead}} Around 30% of Baja California Sur residents were without power at the height of Paul. Across the northern portion of the state, numerous roads were destroyed, especially near Loreto, where flooding caused a {{convert|45|ft|m|abbr=on}} sinkhole to form. In addition, Mexican Federal Highway 11 was damaged in five locations from La Paz to Ciudad Constitucion. In Loreto, significant destruction occurred and many residents were rendered homeless. Two creeks overflowed their banks, destroying several homes.{{cite news|url=http://www.oem.com.mx/elsudcaliforniano/notas/n2736380.htm|title=Evalúan daños del huracán "Paul"|author=Raúl Villalobos Davis|date=October 18, 2012|newspaper=El Sud Californiano|access-date=June 16, 2014|language=es|archive-date=July 14, 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140714152403/http://www.oem.com.mx/elsudcaliforniano/notas/n2736380.htm|url-status=dead}} In Mulege, 300 homes were inundated, displacing 60 individuals to shelter. Thirty light poles were downed. The Puerto San Carlos area sustained the worst flooding from the storm,{{cite news|url=http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/877230.html|title=Paul deja inundaciones en Baja California Sur|date=October 17, 2012|newspaper=El Universal|access-date=June 16, 2014|language=es|archive-date=October 22, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121022115909/https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/877230.html|url-status=dead}} due to a combination of nearly a year's worth of rainfall and storm surge, which toppled a dike. There, about 400 homes collapsed and around 40% of the town's houses received damage, forcing 300 people to seek shelter. In San Ignacio, 30 automobiles were swept away and power was lost to the city.{{cite news|url=http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/877405.html|title=Paul dejó mil viviendas afectadas en BCS|date=October 17, 2012|newspaper=El Universal|access-date=June 16, 2014|language=es|archive-date=October 21, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121021052107/http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/877405.html|url-status=dead}}

Across the city of La Paz, damage to roads was estimated at MX$200 million (US$15.6 million).{{#tag:ref|All currencies are converted to United States Dollars using [https://www.google.com/search?q=500%20MXN%20to%20USD&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a Google].|group=nb}} In all, approximately 1,000 dwellings were damaged in relation to Hurricane Paul;{{cite news|url=http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/estados/88259.html|title=Inundaciones de Paul dejan daños en mil viviendas en BC|date=October 16, 2012|newspaper=El Universal|access-date=June 16, 2014|language=es|archive-date=October 24, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121024013622/https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/estados/88259.html|url-status=dead}} many other homes across the region were left without electricity and running water.{{cite web|author=Haydee Ramirez|publisher=Terra Mexico|date=October 2012|access-date=October 21, 2012|title=Paul damage report|url=http://noticias.terra.com.mx/mexico/estados/presentan-informe-de-danos-por-paul,06fa10e9da97a310VgnCLD2000000ec6eb0aRCRD.html|language=es}} A total of 495 people were taken to shelters, including 93 in Ciudad Insurgentes and 300 in San Carlos.{{cite news|url=http://www.oem.com.mx/elsudcaliforniano/notas/n2735986.htm|title=Paul sólo provocó daños en 2 municipios|date=October 17, 2012|newspaper=El Sud Californiano|access-date=June 16, 2014|language=es|archive-date=July 14, 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140714154931/http://www.oem.com.mx/elsudcaliforniano/notas/n2735986.htm|url-status=dead}} Overall, 5,000 families or 16,000 people were directly affected by the hurricane.{{cite news|url=http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/877732.html|title=BCS reporta 16 mil afectados tras paso de Paul|date=October 19, 2012|newspaper=El Universal|access-date=June 16, 2014|language=es|archive-date=October 22, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121022232933/https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/877732.html|url-status=dead}}

Elsewhere, in Sonora light rain was recorded. In the aftermath of the storm, the Mexican navy activated a plan to provide aid. A total of 130 troops toured the damaged areas via six vehicles. A state of emergency was declared for four municipalities in Baja California Sur.{{cite news|url=http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/877300.html|title=Declaran emergencia para cuatro municipios de BCS|date=October 17, 2012|newspaper=El Universal|access-date=June 16, 2014|language=es|archive-date=June 17, 2014|archive-url=https://archive.today/20140617020947/http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/877300.html|url-status=dead}} By October 18, 95% of all water, power, and road services had been restored.{{cite news|url=http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/877670.html|title=BCS restablece 95% de servicios tras paso de 'Paul'|date=October 18, 2012|newspaper=El Universal|access-date=June 16, 2014|language=es|archive-date=October 29, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121029065127/http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/877670.html|url-status=dead}} Roughly MX$2 million ($156,000 2012 USD) was spent to help rebuild businesses lost due to the storm.{{cite news|url=http://www.oem.com.mx/elsudcaliforniano/notas/n2736380.htm|title=Entregarán apoyos por daños ocasionados por "Paul"|author=Raúl Villalobos Davis|date=January 23, 2013|newspaper=El Sud Californiano|access-date=June 16, 2014|language=es|archive-date=July 14, 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140714152403/http://www.oem.com.mx/elsudcaliforniano/notas/n2736380.htm|url-status=dead}}