Intelligence assessment

File:Intelligence Cycle.jpg

Intelligence assessment is based on a customer requirement or need, which may be a standing requirement or tailored to a specific circumstance or a Request for Information (RFI).{{Cite web |title=History - The World Factbook |url=https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/about/history/ |access-date=2025-03-05 |website=www.cia.gov}} The "requirement" is passed to the assessing agency and worked through the intelligence cycle, a structured method for responding to the RFI.{{Cite web |last=Johnson |first=Loch K. |last2=Wirtz |first2=James J. |date=December 15, 2022 |title=Intelligence: The Secret World of Spies, An Anthology |url=https://global.oup.com/academic/product/intelligence-9780197667064?cc=us&lang=en& |access-date=2025-03-05 |website=global.oup.com}}

The RFI may indicate in what format the requester prefers to consume the product.{{Cite book |last=Clark |first=Robert M. |url=https://www.google.com/books/edition/Intelligence_Analysis/OpQHAQAAMAAJ?hl=en |title=Intelligence Analysis: A Target-centric Approach |date=2004 |publisher=CQ Press |isbn=978-1-56802-830-9 |language=en}}

The RFI is reviewed by a Requirements Manager, who will then direct appropriate tasks to respond to the request.{{Cite book |last=III |first=Carl J. Jensen |url=https://www.google.com/books/edition/Introduction_to_Intelligence_Studies/z4WDEAAAQBAJ?hl=en |title=Introduction to Intelligence Studies |last2=McElreath |first2=David H. |last3=Graves |first3=Melissa |date=2022-09-15 |publisher=Taylor & Francis |isbn=978-1-000-63166-1 |language=en}} This will involve a review of existing material, the tasking of new analytical product or the collection of new information to inform an analysis.{{Cite book |last=Johnson |first=Loch K. |url=https://www.google.com/books/edition/Handbook_of_Intelligence_Studies/fXeTAgAAQBAJ?hl=en |title=Handbook of Intelligence Studies |date=2007-01-24 |publisher=Routledge |isbn=978-1-135-98687-2 |language=en}}

New information may be collected through one or more of the various collection disciplines; human source, electronic and communications intercept, imagery or open sources.{{Cite web |title=Intelligence and Intelligence Analysis |url=https://www.routledge.com/Intelligence-and-Intelligence-Analysis/Walsh/p/book/9781843927396 |access-date=2025-03-05 |website=Routledge & CRC Press |language=en}} The nature of the RFI and the urgency placed on it may indicate that some collection types are unsuitable due to the time taken to collect or validate the information gathered. Intelligence gathering disciplines and the sources and methods used are often highly classified and compartmentalised, with analysts requiring an appropriate high level of security clearance.{{Cite web |title=Intelligence analysis needs to look backwards before looking forward |url=https://historyandpolicy.org/policy-papers/papers/intelligence-analysis-needs-to-look-backwards-before-looking-forward/ |access-date=2025-03-05 |website=History & Policy |language=en-GB}}

The process of taking known information about situations and entities of importance to the RFI, characterizing what is known and attempting to forecast future events is termed "all source" assessment, analysis or processing.{{Cite web |title=All-Source Analysis [NICE Framework Work Role] {{!}} NICCS |url=https://niccs.cisa.gov/workforce-development/nice-framework/work-role/all-source-analysis |access-date=2025-03-05 |website=niccs.cisa.gov |language=en}} The analyst uses multiple sources to mutually corroborate, or exclude, the information collected, reaching a conclusion along with a measure of confidence around that conclusion.{{Cite web |date=March 2009 |title=A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis |url=https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Papers/Tradecraft%20Primer-apr09.pdf |website=Berkeley.edu}}

Where sufficient current information already exists, the analysis may be tasked directly without reference to further collection.{{Cite book |last=BooksRun |url=https://booksrun.com/9780810861848-strategic-intelligence-a-handbook-for-practitioners-managers-and-users-security-and-professional-intelligence-education-series-revised-edition |title=Strategic Intelligence: A Handbook for: 9780810861848 - BooksRun |isbn=978-0-8108-6184-8 |language=en}}

The analysis is then communicated back to the requester in the format directed, although subject to the constraints on both the RFI and the methods used in the analysis, the format may be made available for other uses as well and disseminated accordingly. The analysis will be written to a defined classification level with alternative versions potentially available at a number of classification levels for further dissemination.{{Cite book |last=Rovner |first=Joshua |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7591/j.ctt7z94g |title=Fixing the Facts: National Security and the Politics of Intelligence |date=2011 |publisher=Cornell University Press |isbn=978-0-8014-4829-4 |doi=10.7591/j.ctt7z94g}}

File:Target centric intelligence cycle.jpg

This approach, known as Find-Fix-Finish-Exploit-Assess (F3EA),{{cite web | url=https://theintercept.com/drone-papers/find-fix-finish/ | title=Find, Fix, Finish | work=The Intercept_ | date=October 15, 2015 | access-date=October 30, 2016 | author=Jeremy Scahill}} is complementary to the intelligence cycle and focused on the intervention itself, where the subject of the assessment is clearly identifiable and provisions exist to make some form of intervention against that subject, the target-centric assessment approach may be used.

• Find
• The subject for action, or target, is identified and efforts are initially made to find the target for further development. This activity will identify where intervention against the target will have the most beneficial effects.
• Fix
• When the decision is made to intervene, action is taken to fix the target, confirming that the intervention will have a high probability of success and restricting the ability of the target to take independent action.
• Finish
• During the finish stage, the intervention is executed, potentially an arrest or detention or the placement of other collection methods.
• Exploit
• Following the intervention, exploitation of the target is carried out, which may lead to further refinement of the process for related targets. The output from the exploit stage will also be passed into other intelligence assessment activities.

The F3EAD cycle—Find, Fix, Finish, Exploit, Analyze, and Disseminate—is an alternative intelligence cycle commonly used within Western militaries, particularly in operations that result in lethal action, such as drone strikes and special forces missions.{{Cite web |date=2017-02-08 |title=F3EAD: Find, Fix, Finish, Exploit, Analyze and Disseminate – The Alternative Intelligence Cycle - ReliaQuest |url=https://www.reliaquest.com/blog/f3ead-find-fix-finish-exploit-analyze-and-disseminate-the-alternative-intelligence-cycle/ |access-date=2025-03-05 |website=www.reliaquest.com |language=en-US}}

• Analyze
• The collected information is analyzed to identify patterns, assess credibility, and produce intelligence reports.{{Cite web |title=Optimizing the Alternate Targeting Methodology F3EAD |url=https://www.lineofdeparture.army.mil/Journals/Military-Intelligence/MIPB-January-June-2024/Optimizing-the-Alternate-Targeting-Methodology-F3EAD/ |access-date=2025-03-05 |website=www.lineofdeparture.army.mil}}
• Disseminate
• The output from the exploit stage is disseminated to key stakeholders and other intelligence assessment activities.{{Cite web |last=Edwards |first=Lloyd |last2=Gibson |first2=Matt |last3=McCarthy |first3=David |date=May 2016 |title=From Fix to Finish: The Impact of New Technologies on the Special Operations Approval Process |url=https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/mrcbg/files/56_final.pdf |website=Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business & Government}}

{{Main|Intelligence cycle}}

The U.S. intelligence community (IC) follows a structured six-step intelligence cycle;{{Cite web |title=The intelligence cycle |url=https://www.cia.gov/spy-kids/static/59d238b4b5f69e0497325e49f0769acf/Briefing-intelligence-cycle.pdf |access-date=March 5, 2025 |website=CIA SpyKids}}

• Planning & Direction
• Collection (Espionage)
• Processing & Exploitation
• Analysis & Production
• Dissemination, and Feedback.

The IC has a heavy reliance on technological collection (SIGINT, IMINT, MASINT) alongside HUMINT.

Centralized analysis through agencies like the CIA, DIA, and NSA, but intelligence dissemination is highly structured through national security briefings.

The Intelligence Information Cycle leverages secrecy theory and U.S. regulation of classified intelligence to re-conceptualize the traditional intelligence cycle under the following four assumptions:

1. Intelligence is secret information
2. Intelligence is a public good
3. Intelligence moves cyclically
4. Intelligence is hoarded

Information is transformed from privately held to secretly held to public based on who has control over it. For example, the private information of a source becomes secret information (intelligence) when control over its dissemination is shared with an intelligence officer, and then becomes public information when the intelligence officer further disseminates it to the public by any number of means, including formal reporting, threat warning, and others. The fourth assumption, intelligence is hoarded, causes conflict points where information transitions from one type to another. The first conflict point, collection, occurs when private transitions to secret information (intelligence). The second conflict point, dissemination, occurs when secret transitions to public information. Thus, conceiving of intelligence using these assumptions demonstrates the cause of collection techniques (to ease the private-secret transition) and dissemination conflicts, and can inform ethical standards of conduct among all agents in the intelligence process.{{Cite journal |last=Stottlemyre |first=Steven |date=2022 |title=Reconceptualizing Intelligence after Benghazi |url=https://rgdoi.net/10.13140/RG.2.2.19732.99204 |language=en |doi=10.13140/RG.2.2.19732.99204}}{{Cite journal |last=Stottlemyre |first=Steven |date=2021 |title=The United States Intelligence Community, Secrecy and the 'Steele Dossier': Reconceptualizing the Intelligence Process |url=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357660611 |journal=Journal of European and American Intelligence Studies |volume=4 |issue=2 |pages=11–28}}

The UK intelligence process is similar but often less bureaucratic, with MI6 (SIS) focusing on HUMINT, GCHQ on SIGINT, and MI5 on domestic security.{{Cite journal|url=https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16161262.2015.1032496|title=The official history of the Joint Intelligence Committee, volume 1: from the approach of the Second World War to the Suez Crisis|first=Daniel W. B.|last=Lomas|date=July 3, 2015|journal=Journal of Intelligence History|volume=14|issue=2|pages=148–149|via=Taylor and Francis+NEJM|doi=10.1080/16161262.2015.1032496|url-access=subscription}} The Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) plays a key role in assessing intelligence for policymakers, rather than each agency handling it independently.{{Cite book |last=Aldrich |first=Richard James |url=https://www.google.com/books/edition/GCHQ/4I2PmCtrHOgC?hl=en |title=GCHQ: The Uncensored Story of Britain's Most Secret Intelligence Agency |date=2010 |publisher=HarperPress |isbn=978-0-00-727847-3 |language=en}}

The Russian approach integrates intelligence directly into active measures (deception, subversion, and disinformation) more than Western counterparts.{{Cite book |last=Andrew |first=Christopher |url=https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Sword_and_the_Shield/9TWUAQ7Xof8C?hl=en |title=The Sword and the Shield: The Mitrokhin Archive and the Secret History of the KGB |last2=Mitrokhin |first2=Vasili |date=1999 |publisher=Basic Books |isbn=978-0-465-00312-9 |language=en}} Analysis and dissemination tend to be more centralized, with intelligence feeding directly into the Kremlin’s strategic decision-making.{{Cite book |last=Galeotti |first=Mark |url=https://www.google.com/books/edition/Russian_Political_War/PPSKDwAAQBAJ?hl=en |title=Russian Political War: Moving Beyond the Hybrid |date=2019-03-04 |publisher=Routledge |isbn=978-0-429-81209-5 |language=en}}

China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) and military intelligence units prioritize long-term strategic intelligence gathering, especially industrial espionage and cyber warfare.{{Cite web |title=Chinese Communist Espionage |url=https://www.usni.org/press/books/chinese-communist-espionage |access-date=2025-03-05 |website=U.S. Naval Institute |language=en}} The fusion of intelligence and policy-making is stronger, with the Chinese Communist Party exerting tight control over the process.{{Cite journal |last=Kania |first=Elsa B. |date=2021-06-07 |title=Artificial intelligence in China’s revolution in military affairs |url=https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402390.2021.1894136 |journal=Journal of Strategic Studies |volume=44 |issue=4 |pages=515–542 |doi=10.1080/01402390.2021.1894136 |issn=0140-2390|url-access=subscription }}

The French intelligence cycle closely resembles the U.S. and UK models, but with a greater focus on economic intelligence to support national industries.{{Cite book |last=Porch |first=Douglas |url=https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_French_Secret_Services/YOBeKDcb9PcC?hl=en |title=The French Secret Services: A History of French Intelligence from the Drefus Affair to the Gulf War |date=November 2003 |publisher=Macmillan |isbn=978-0-374-52945-1 |language=en}} More autonomy is given to field operatives to gather and assess intelligence in real-time without excessive central oversight.{{Cite book |url=https://archive.org/details/auservicedelafra0007unse |title=au service de la france |others=Internet Archive}}

Intelligence operations in Israel are highly operationally integrated, meaning the cycle often skips steps (e.g., collection may immediately lead to direct action, such as assassinations or preemptive strikes).{{Cite book |last=Bar-Zohar |first=Michael |url=https://www.google.com/books/edition/Mossad/7BIgoMALdwwC?hl=en |title=Mossad: The Greatest Missions of the Israeli Secret Service |last2=Mishal |first2=Nissim |date=2012-11-06 |publisher=Harper Collins |isbn=978-0-06-212344-2 |language=en}} Intelligence is designed for rapid-action scenarios, given Israel’s security threats.{{Cite book |last=Bergman |first=Ronen |url=https://www.google.com/books/edition/Rise_and_Kill_First/YeycDwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=Bergman,+Rise+and+Kill+First,+2018&printsec=frontcover |title=Rise and Kill First: The Secret History of Israel's Targeted Assassinations |date=2019-07-09 |publisher=Random House Publishing Group |isbn=978-0-8129-8211-4 |language=en}}

• All-source intelligence
• Intelligence cycle
• List of intelligence gathering disciplines
• Military intelligence
• Surveillance
• Threat assessment
• Futures studies
• Intelligence literature

{{Reflist}}

• [https://web.archive.org/web/20070612182250/https://www.cia.gov/library/intelligence-literature/index.html Intelligence Literature: Suggested Reading List (CIA)]
• [http://intellit.muskingum.edu The Literature of Intelligence: A Bibliography of Materials, with Essays, Reviews, and Comments by J. Ransom Clark, Emeritus Professor of Political Science, Muskingum College]

{{Espionage}}

{{Intelligence cycle management}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Intelligence Assessment}}

Category:Data collection

Category:Intelligence analysis