List of Storm Prediction Center high risk days#2000–2009
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File:Evolution of SPC Forecasts Leading to April 14, 2012.png
A high risk severe weather event is the greatest threat level issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for convective weather events in the United States. On the scale from one to five, a high risk is a level five. A high risk is usually for major tornado outbreaks with numerous strong to violent tornadoes expected, and occasionally derechos with widespread destructive wind gusts, and these outlooks are typically reserved for the most extreme events.{{cite web|author=Chris Hayes Novy|work=Storm Prediction Center|publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|date=March 25, 2010|access-date=June 15, 2013|title=SPC and its Products: Convective Outlooks|url=http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/about.html#Convective%20Outlooks}} They are generally only issued on the day of the event. However, there have been three occurrences (April 7, 2006, April 14, 2012, and March 15, 2025) of a high risk being issued for Day 2 of the outlook period (with the event occurring the following day). Under the official protocol, a high risk cannot be issued for Day 3 of the outlook period.{{cite web |title=SPC Products |url=https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/about.html#Convective |website=www.spc.noaa.gov}}
High risk days
=1982–1989=
Thirty-four high risks were issued in the 1980s.
=1990–1999=
Sixty high risks were issued in the 1990s.
=2000–2009=
There were no high risk days in 2000. Thirty-eight high risks were issued in the 2000s.
=2010–2019=
There were no high risk days in 2015, 2016, or 2018. This is the first decade to feature multiple years without a High Risk. 2018 was also the only year since 1950 to feature no violent (EF4+ tornadoes) nationwide. Twenty-three high risks were issued in the 2010s.
| class="wikitable collapsible sortable" style="width:100%;"
!colspan="9"|Storm Prediction Center High Risk Events – 2010–2019{{#tag:ref | group="nb"|name="tornadoes"}} |
| scope="col"|Date
! scope="col"|Year ! scope="col" class="unsortable"|Region ! scope="col"|Tornadoes ! scope="col"|Max rating ! scope="col"|Peak gust ! scope="col"|Fatalities ! scope="col" class="unsortable"|Outlook ! scope="col" class="unsortable"|Notes | |
|---|---|
| {{sort|0424|April 24}}
| {{sort|20100424|2010}} | Southern U.S.[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1otlk_20100424_1200.html Storm Prediction Center April 24, 2010 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 39 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|4}}|{{center|EF4}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|120|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}}† | style="text-align:center;"| 10{{cite web|url=http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html |title=Storm Prediction Center Monthly and Annual Summaries |publisher=Spc.noaa.gov |date= |access-date=2013-06-13}} | 150px | Tornado outbreak of April 22–25, 2010 – A high risk was issued at 06Z issued for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes. There were 39 tornadoes confirmed; two were rated EF4. One of the EF4 tornado was the second (then-first) widest in Mississippi state history, and the fourth-longest tracked in the state. The strongest tornadoes were in/near the high risk area. The high risk was discontinued at 0100Z. | |
| {{sort|0430|April 30}}
| {{sort|20100430|2010}} | Arkansas[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1otlk_20100501_0100.html Storm Prediction Center April 30, 2010 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 27 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|3}}|{{center|EF3}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|75|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}}† | style="text-align:center;"| 1{{cite web|url=https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna36882634 |title=Ark. tornadoes kill 1, injure two dozen – Weather {{pipe}} NBC News |publisher=NBC News |date=2010-01-05 |access-date=2013-06-13}} | 150px | Tornado outbreak of April 30 – May 2, 2010 – A high risk was issued on the first day of the aforementioned outbreak for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes. For only the second known time a high risk was not issued until 0100 UTC (the other occurrence May 22, 2004). This is the last 01Z High Risk upgrade to date. The eventual high risk area was only in an enhanced slight risk prior to 20Z. This is the only day in which the entire area to eventually be in a high risk was not even in a moderate risk until 2000Z. There were 28 tornadoes confirmed; two were rated EF3. | |
| {{sort|0501|May 1}}
| {{sort|20100501|2010}} | Middle Mississippi Valley[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1otlk_20100501_1300.html Storm Prediction Center May 1, 2010 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 30 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|3}}|{{center|EF3}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|83|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}}† | style="text-align:center;"| 0 | 150px | Tornado outbreak of April 30 – May 2, 2010 – A high risk was issued at 13Z on the second day of the aforementioned outbreak for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes, and was subsequently maintained. Only 11 weak tornadoes were confirmed during the day, but several strong tornadoes, one of which was rated EF3, occurred overnight focused on the eastern portions of the high risk area and into the bordering moderate risk. A major flood disaster also occurred from the same storm. | |
| {{sort|0510|May 10}}
| {{sort|20100510|2010}} | Oklahoma, Kansas[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1otlk_20100510_1200.html Storm Prediction Center May 10, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 70 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|4}}|{{center|EF4}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|100|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}}† | style="text-align:center;"| 3 | 150px | Tornado outbreak of May 10–13, 2010 – A high risk lasted the entire outlook cycle on the first day of the aforementioned outbreak for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes. There were 70 tornadoes confirmed; two were rated EF4, both of which occurred around the west edge of the high risk in the southern suburbs of the Oklahoma City metropolitan area and were responsible for the three fatalities during the outbreak. | |
| {{sort|0519|May 19}}
| {{sort|20100519|2010}} | Oklahoma[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1otlk_20100519_1630.html Storm Prediction Center May 19, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 13 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|1}}|{{center|EF1}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|70|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}}† | style="text-align:center;"| 0 | 150px | Tornadoes of 2010#May 18–21 – A high risk was issued at 1630Z on the second day of the aforementioned outbreak for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes. Overall, the event busted, only 13 weak tornadoes, seven of which were rated EF1, were confirmed in the area, although significant flooding occurred from the same storm system. The high risk was discontinued at 01Z. | |
| {{sort|1026|October 26}}
| {{sort|20101026|2010}} | Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1otlk_20101026_1200.html Storm Prediction Center October 26, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 43 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|2}}|{{center|EF2}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|85|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}}† | style="text-align:center;"| 0 | 150px | October 2010 North American storm complex – This was a major derecho event.{{citation needed|date=December 2022}} The high risk was issued at 06Z based on 60% significant severe wind probability, with a tornado probability of 15% falling short of high risk standards. There were 43 tornadoes confirmed; five were rated EF2. There were also 339 damaging wind reports including 7 hurricane-force gusts (many inside the high risk) up to {{convert|85|mph|kph|abbr=on}}.{{Cite web |last=Center |first=Storm Prediction |title=Storm Prediction Center Storm Reports Page |url=https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/101026_rpts.html |access-date=2022-12-28 |website=www.spc.noaa.gov |language=EN-US}} The high risk was discontinued at 2000Z as the squall line was most intense in the morning and early afternoon. The storm system (nicknamed "Octbomb") responsible for this severe weather outbreak also featured near-record nontropical low pressure over Minnesota. | |
| {{sort|0416|April 16}}
| {{sort|20110416|2011}} | North Carolina, Virginia[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day1otlk_20110416_1630.html Storm Prediction Center April 16, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 53 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|3}}|{{center|EF3}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|81|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}}† | style="text-align:center;"| 26 | 150px | Tornado outbreak of April 14–16, 2011 – A high risk was issued at 1630Z on the third day of the aforementioned outbreak (which had already produced a substantial tornado outbreak on the prior days) for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes. A total of 58 tornadoes were confirmed; six were rated EF3, two of which had path lengths of over {{convert|50|mi|km}} with the first striking Raleigh, North Carolina (albeit at EF1 strength). The high risk was discontinued at 0100Z as the storms had mostly moved off the East Coast. | |
| {{sort|0426|April 26}}
| {{sort|20110426|2011}} | South-Central U.S.[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day1otlk_20110426_1300.html Storm Prediction Center April 26, 2011 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 55 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|3}}|{{center|EF3}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|110|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}}† | style="text-align:center;"| 0 | 125px | 2011 Super Outbreak – A high risk was issued at 13Z and subsequently maintained on the second day of the record-setting aforementioned outbreak for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes. In the 1630z outlook, the wind risk was also upgraded to 60%, which meets high risk criteria.{{Cite web |title=SPC Severe Weather Event Review for Tuesday April 26, 2011 |url=https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20110426 |access-date=2024-03-26 |website=www.spc.noaa.gov}} There were 55 tornado touch downs during the day; one was rated EF3. 390 damaging wind gusts were also reported, including 5 hurricane gusts. Despite the abundance of tornadoes and wind reports, most of the severe activity happened either along and south of the southern part of the high-risk area or well to the east in the slight risk area over Alabama. Additionally, on the previous day (April 25, the first day of this sequence), a moderate risk was in effect simultaneously for that day (the 25th), in anticipation for this day (the 26th; Day 2 outlook), and also in anticipation for the following day (April 27; Day 3 outlook; which turned into an extremely destructive and record setting high risk day - see below). This is the only known simultaneous occurrence of Day 1, 2, and 3 moderate risk outlooks. | |
| {{sort|0427|April 27}}
| {{sort|20110427|2011}} | Southern U.S.[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day1otlk_20110427_2000.html Storm Prediction Center April 27, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 215 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|5}}|{{center|EF5}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|100|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}}† | style="text-align:center;"| 316 | 125px | 2011 Super Outbreak – The high risk lasted the entire Day 1 Outlook cycle. This was day 3 of the record-setting aforementioned outbreak; this day alone set the record for most tornadoes in a 24-hour period. It was also the deadliest high risk day on record as well as the deadliest single day outbreak in the United States since the Tri-State tornado outbreak on March 18, 1925. The outlook included a 45% significant tornado area that was introduced at 1630Z (the first instance of a 45% tornado area being added prior to the 20Z outlook), which is above the minimum threshold for a high risk. It also produced the first known watch (PDS tornado watch 235) with a >95% probability for all severe and significant severe hazards.[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2011/ww0235_prob.html Tornado Watch 235 Watch Hazard Probabilities April 27, 2011 1846 UTC] The tornadoes came in three rounds starting with two damaging morning squall lines followed by an outbreak of large tornadic supercells. The strongest (violent EF4/EF5) tornadoes occurred in the high risk area (many in/near the 45% probability) associated with these large supercells, while dozens of other tornadoes were confirmed throughout the other risk areas. Three of the tornadoes tracked over {{convert|100|mi|km}}, with one of them becoming the deadliest tornado ever recorded in Alabama. Several areas that had experienced tornadoes either from that morning or from other outbreaks earlier that year were struck again as well. One violent tornado struck both Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, Alabama, remaining on the ground in-between. There were 215 tornado touchdowns; four were rated EF5, the second most for a calendar day (the record is the Super Outbreak of April 3, 1974). An additional 11 EF4 tornadoes were also reported, and the total of 15 violent tornadoes (EF4+) was the third most on record, behind the 1974 Super Outbreak and the 1965 Palm Sunday outbreak (all of these numbers are the most of any day since 1982, when records of High Risk outlooks begin). An additional F0 tornado was confirmed in Canada. | |
| {{sort|0524|May 24}}
| {{sort|20110524|2011}} | Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day1otlk_20110524_1200.html Storm Prediction Center May 24, 2011 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 47 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|5}}|{{center|EF5}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|92|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}}†* | style="text-align:center;"| 17 | 125px | Tornado outbreak sequence of May 21–26, 2011 – The high risk was issued at 06Z and discontinued at 01Z. This was day 4 of the aforementioned outbreak sequence and included a 45% significant tornado area introduced at 1630Z, above the minimum high-risk threshold. There were 47 tornado touchdowns; one (occurring within the high risk and 45% tornado area over Oklahoma) was rated EF5. This EF5 occurred only two days after the devastating Joplin EF5 from the same overall storm sequence (however, a high risk outlook was not issued on May 22). The two EF4 tornadoes that were confirmed that day may have also reached EF5 intensity. The high risk was discontinued at 0100Z. This is the last High Risk day as of early 2025 to produce an official EF5 tornado (however, an EF5 tornado did occur more recently in 2013 in Oklahoma on a Moderate Risk day). | |
| {{sort|0525|May 25}}
| {{sort|20110525|2011}} | Midwest[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day1otlk_20110525_2000.html Storm Prediction Center May 25, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 94 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|4}}|{{center|EF4}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|100|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}}† | style="text-align:center;"| 1 | 125px | Tornado outbreak sequence of May 21–26, 2011 – A high risk was issued at 13Z on the fifth day of the aforementioned outbreak sequence for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes. A total of 94 tornadoes were confirmed; one (which occurred inside of the high risk) was rated EF4; three of the tornadoes were in California, well to the west of the main risk area. The high-risk was discontinued at 0100Z. | |
| {{sort|0302|March 2}}
| {{sort|20120302|2012}} | Midwest and Southern U.S.[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2012/day1otlk_20120302_2000.html Storm Prediction Center March 2, 2012 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 64 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|4}}|{{center|EF4}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|86|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}}† | style="text-align:center;"| 41 | 125px | Tornado outbreak of March 2–3, 2012 – A high risk was issued at 13Z on the first day of the aforementioned outbreak (but fourth day of a storm sequence that began February 28) for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes. A total of 64 tornadoes were confirmed; two were rated EF4, both of which were produced by the same supercell, which also produced an EF3 tornado, all within the high risk area. Another EF3 tornado tracked for over {{Convert|80|mi|km}} through eastern Kentucky and southwestern West Virginia. The high risk was discontinued at 0100Z. | |
| {{sort|0414|April 14}}
| {{sort|20120414|2012}} | Central U.S.[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2012/day2otlk_20120413_0600.html Storm Prediction Center April 13, 2012 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 83 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|4}}|{{center|EF4}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|97|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}} | style="text-align:center;"| 6 | 125px | Tornado outbreak of April 13–16, 2012 – This was day 2 of aforementioned outbreak; it was the second of three high risks to be issued on Day 2 (the day before the event; first Day 2 high risk was for April 7, 2006, and the third was for March 15, 2025) and the first/only to date ever issued on the initial (0600Z) Day 2 outlook. It included 45% tornado probability above minimum threshold of 30%. This was the only day to have a 45% tornado area in its 06Z Day 1 Outlook (although that 45% area was north of most of the tornadoes; by 20Z the 45% area had been shifted southward and covered the region that ultimately saw the most/densest tornado activity). A total of 83 tornadoes were confirmed; one was rated EF4. The high risk largely busted in most of Oklahoma (except far northern and western) as the brunt of outbreak was focused in Kansas. The high risk was maintained for the entire Day 1 cycle (in addition to both Day 2 outlooks) in the regions where most of the tornadoes including the strongest tornadoes occurred (the southern end of the high risk, which lacked storms due to capping until well into the night when a moderate squall line containing only a few embedded tornadoes developed along the cold front as it overtook the dryline, was trimmed back to a moderate risk at 01Z). | |
| {{sort|0612|June 12}}
| {{sort|20130612|2013}} | Midwest[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day1otlk_20130612_1630.html Storm Prediction Center June 12, 2013 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 19 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|3}}|{{center|EF3}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|95|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}}† | style="text-align:center;"| 0 | 125px | June 12–13, 2013 derecho series – This is the latest date of a 'spring season' high risk in the 21st century to date. The high risk was issued at 1630Z driven by 60% significant severe wind probability as the maximum tornado probability was a hatched 15% area, just short of the high risk level. (The latest spring season issuance of a 30% tornado area in the 21st century is June 7, 2007.) A total of 19 tornadoes were confirmed; one was rated EF3. 278 damaging wind gusts were reported, including 4 hurricane force gusts, though most occurred over Ohio and were east of the high risk and near or after its 01Z discontinuation.{{Cite web |last=Center |first=Storm Prediction |title=Storm Prediction Center Storm Reports Page |url=https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/130612_rpts.html |access-date=2022-12-28 |website=www.spc.noaa.gov |language=EN-US}} The high risk was discontinued at 01Z. | |
| {{sort|1117|November 17}}
| {{sort|20131117|2013}} | Midwest[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day1otlk_20131117_1200.html Storm Prediction Center November 17, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 77 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|4}}|{{center|EF4}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|100|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}}† | 125px | Tornado outbreak of November 17, 2013 – The high risk was initially issued at 06Z for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes. This was an unusually far north tornado outbreak and one of only five high risk days during the month of November in recorded history (three since 2000).{{cite web|first=Danielle|last=Dozier|title=How rare are high risk days in November?|url=http://www.koco.com/weather/how-rare-are-high-risk-days-in-november/-/9845544/23026534/-/hnixvn/-/index.html|work=KOCO TV|date=November 18, 2013|access-date=November 22, 2013}} Many Midwest cities (including Chicago, South Bend, and Fort Wayne) outside the climatologically most frequent high risk locations experienced their second high risk day of 2013. It was the second latest date in the year a high risk has been issued since 2000 (the latest was December 23, 2002, in the Deep South), and latest date in a calendar year that a high risk has been issued in the Midwest (second latest is November 15, 2005). It also included a high risk level (60% significant severe) wind probability in the 2000Z outlook. In all, 77 tornadoes were confirmed largely in and near the high risk area; two were rated EF4, both occurring in the western portion of the high risk area. 579 wind reports were also recorded, including 19 hurricane-force.{{Cite web |last=Center |first=Storm Prediction |title=Storm Prediction Center Storm Reports Page |url=https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/131117_rpts.html |access-date=2024-02-24 |website=www.spc.noaa.gov |language=EN-US}} The high risk was discontinued at 0100Z as the cold front and related storms had moved eastward into the bordering moderate area (which was maintained primarily for wind). This was the last High Risk issued during the fall severe weather season for over a decade (although incidents of significant fall/early winter season tornadoes have occurred more recently). | |
| {{sort|0427|April 27}}
| {{sort|20140427|2014}} | Southwestern Arkansas[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2014/day1otlk_20140427_2000.html Storm Prediction Center April 27, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 18 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|4}}|{{center|EF4}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|90|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}}† | style="text-align:center;"| 19 | 125px | Tornado outbreak of April 27–30, 2014 – This was the first day of the aforementioned outbreak. A small high risk area was issued at the 2000Z outlook that included the cities of Little Rock, Camden, and Danville for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes. An EF4 tornado was confirmed in the risk area before the high risk was discontinued in a special outlook update at 0230Z. The outlook period as a whole produced 18 tornadoes.[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2014/day1otlk_20140428_0100.html Storm Prediction Center April 28, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | |
| {{sort|0428|April 28}}
| {{sort|20140428|2014}} | Alabama, Mississippi[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2014/day1otlk_20140428_2000.html Storm Prediction Center April 28, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 57 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|4}}|{{center|EF4}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|70|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}}† | style="text-align:center;"| 16 | 125px | Tornado outbreak of April 27–30, 2014 – This was the second day of the aforementioned outbreak. A high risk was issued at the 2000Z outlook for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes. Numerous long-tracked and/or strong to violent tornadoes occurred across Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. It was the largest tornado outbreak in central Alabama since April 27, 2011. A total of 57 tornadoes were confirmed during the outlook period; one was rated EF4. The strongest tornadoes were in or nearby to the high risk. This is the last occurrence of back to back high risk days for at least a decade (continuing as of early 2025; and three consecutive high risk days have not occurred in 25 years, since May 1999). The high risk was discontinued at 0100Z.{{cite web|title=Tornado Outbreak April 28–29, 2014|url=http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/?n=event_04282014|publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|work=National Weather Service office in Birmingham, Alabama|date=May 2, 2014|access-date=May 3, 2014}} | |
| {{sort|0603|June 3}}
| {{sort|20140603|2014}} | Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2014/day1otlk_20140603_2000.html Storm Prediction Center June 3, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 9 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|3}}|{{center|EF3}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|100|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}}† | style="text-align:center;"| 0 | 125px | Tornadoes of 2014#June 3–4 – The high risk was issued at 2000Z for 60% wind probability and potential derecho; tornado probability was 10%, well short of high risk level. Extreme hail/wind and some tornadoes were reported, although most of the activity remained along or south of the southern part of the high risk. Nine tornadoes were confirmed during the outlook period; one tornado was rated EF3. The high risk was discontinued at 0100Z. | |
| {{sort|0122|January 22}}
| {{sort|20170122|2017}} | Georgia, Florida[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day1otlk_20170122_2000.html Storm Prediction Center January 22, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 17 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|3}}|{{center|EF3}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|75|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}} | style="text-align:center;"| 16 | 125px | Tornado outbreak of January 21–23, 2017 – An unusual January High Risk (the first since 1999) followed the longest known gap (over 30 months) between High Risk days. This was the second day of the aforementioned outbreak. The high risk was issued at 13Z for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes, primarily in northern Florida and southern Georgia.{{cite web|last1=Ferrell|first1=Jesse|title=Major tornado outbreak likely Sunday|url=http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/major-tornado-outbreak-likely-sunday/70000643|website=Accuweather|access-date=23 January 2017}} This was also the first high risk issued under the five-category system (which began in October 2014), and also the furthest southeast (Florida panhandle) a high risk has been issued in the 21st century. There were 17 confirmed tornado touchdowns during the outlook period; one tornado, which was rated EF3, traveled over {{convert|70|mi|km}} and was over a {{convert|1|mi|km}} wide. There were six fatalities from tornadoes along with one non-tornadic death. The high risk was discontinued at 0100Z. | |
| {{sort|0402|April 2}}
| {{sort|20170402|2017}} | Texas, Louisiana[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day1otlk_20170402_1630.html Storm Prediction Center April 2, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 30 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|2}}|{{center|EF2}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|70|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}} | style="text-align:center;"| 2 | 125px | Tornadoes of 2017#April 2–3 – This was the first day of the aforementioned outbreak. The high risk was issued at 1630Z for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes. Although most of the tornadoes that touched down were relatively weak and short-lived, seven of them were more than {{convert|1/2|mi|km|abbr=on}} wide, including one that reached a peak width of just over {{convert|1+1/4|mi|km|abbr=on}} wide, and multiple tornado emergencies were issued. 30 tornadoes were confirmed during the outlook period; six of them were rated EF2. The high risk was discontinued at 0100Z.{{cite web|title=Storm Prediction Center|url=http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/170402_rpts.html|website=SPC Storm Reports|access-date=3 April 2017|ref=4232}} | |
| {{sort|0405|April 5}}
| {{sort|20170405|2017}} | Georgia, South Carolina[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day1otlk_20170405_1630.html Storm Prediction Center April 5, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 26 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|2}}|{{center|EF2}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|80|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}} | style="text-align:center;"| 0 | 125px | Tornadoes of 2017#April 4–6 – This was the second day of the aforementioned outbreak. The high risk was issued at 1630Z for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes. A total of 26 tornadoes were confirmed during the outlook period, four of which were rated EF2, although the tornadoes were mostly scattered throughout the various severe risk areas rather than being concentrated within the high risk area. One EF2 tornado in Georgia did prompt the issuance of a tornado emergency. The high risk was discontinued at around 0100Z.{{cite web|title=Storm Prediction Center|url=http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/170405_rpts.html|website=SPC Storm Reports|access-date=6 April 2017|ref=4232}} | |
| {{sort|0518|May 18}}
| {{sort|20170518|2017}} | Kansas, Oklahoma[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day1otlk_20170518_1200.html Storm Prediction Center May 18, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 58 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|2}}|{{center|EF2}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|104|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}} | style="text-align:center;"| 0 | 125px | Tornado outbreak sequence of May 15–20, 2017 – This was day 4 of the outbreak sequence. The high risk was issued at 06Z for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes. A total of 58 tornadoes were confirmed during the outlook period, three of which were rated EF2. However, only weak, scattered tornadoes were reported in the high risk area, which saw a large area of heavy rain when the most favorable tornado parameters arrived; the strongest tornadoes occurred to the east of that area. The high risk was discontinued at 01Z.{{cite web|title=Storm Prediction Center|url=http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/170518_rpts.html|website=SPC Storm Reports|access-date=19 May 2017|ref=4232}} | |
| {{sort|0520|May 20}}
| {{sort|20190520|2019}} | Oklahoma, Texas[http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day1otlk_20190520_1630.html Storm Prediction Center May 20, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook] | style="text-align:center;"| 51 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|3}}| {{center|EF3}} | style="text-align:center;"| {{convert|94|mph|km/h|abbr=on|sortable=on}} | style="text-align:center;"| 0 | 125px | Tornado outbreak sequence of May 2019 – This was day 4 of the outbreak sequence. The high risk was initially issued at 06Z for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes; this risk area was subsequently expanded and upgraded to a 45% probability of significant tornadoes, exceeding the minimum high risk criteria at the 1630Z outlook. This high risk produced the second known tornado watch with a >95% chance of all hazards (PDS Tornado Watch 199).{{Cite web|url=https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2019/ww0199.html|title=Storm Prediction Center PDS Tornado Watch 199|website=www.spc.noaa.gov|access-date=2019-05-21}} The event did not quite live up to the high parameters that were in place for the day with sustained supercells failing to develop in the 45% risk, likely in part because of more persistent low cloud cover. However, 50 tornadoes were confirmed during the outlook period, many in/near the high risk area and one of which was rated EF3 (one of the tornadoes was also well outside of the risk area in Arizona). The high risk lasted for the entire outlook period, although the 01Z outlook had only a much smaller high risk area focusing on one lone supercell.{{cite web|title=Storm Prediction Center|url=http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/190520_rpts.html|website=SPC Storm Reports|access-date=28 May 2019}} | |
| colspan="9" class="sortbottom"|† – Value is estimated * – Peak wind gust of {{convert|151|mph|km/h|abbr=on}} measured during the EF5 El Reno tornado |
=2020–present=
There were no high-risk days in 2020 or 2022. Six high risks have been issued so far in the 2020s.
| class="wikitable collapsible sortable" style="width:100%;"
!colspan="9"|Storm Prediction Center High Risk Events – 2020–{{currentyear}}{{#tag:ref | group="nb"|name="tornadoes"}} |
| scope="col"|Date
! scope="col"|Year ! scope="col" class="unsortable" style="width:12%;"|Region ! scope="col"|Tornadoes{{#tag:ref|This number reflects the number of tornadoes during the outlook period between 12Z on the day of the high risk to 12Z the next day.|group="nb"|name="Count"}} ! scope="col"|Max rating ! scope="col"|Peak gust ! scope="col"|Fatalities ! scope="col" class="unsortable"|Outlook ! scope="col" class="unsortable"|Notes | |
|---|---|
| {{sort|0317|March 17}}
| {{sort|20210317|2021}} | Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas{{cite web |title=SPC Severe Weather Event Review for Wednesday March 17, 2021 |url=https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20210317 |website=www.spc.noaa.gov |access-date=17 November 2022}} | style="text-align:center;"|40 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|cat2}} |{{center|EF2}} | style="text-align:center;"|{{convert|64|mph|km/h|abbr=on}} | style="text-align:center;"|0 |Tornado outbreak of March 16–18, 2021 – This was day 2 of the outbreak. The high risk, which lasted the entire Day 1 Outlook cycle, was initially issued for a 30% hatched area for tornadoes; this was upgraded to a 45% hatched area for tornadoes at 1606Z. A total of 40 tornadoes were confirmed during the outlook period, four of which were rated EF2, although little tornado activity occurred within the 45% risk area.{{Cite web|date=2021-03-17|title=Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Outlook and Preliminary Reports|url=https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day1probotlk_v_20210317_2000_torn_prt.gif|access-date=2021-03-22|website=Storm Prediction Center}} | |
| {{sort|0325|March 25}}
| {{sort|20210325|2021}} | Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee{{cite web |title=SPC Severe Weather Event Review for Thursday March 25, 2021 |url=https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20210325 |website=www.spc.noaa.gov |access-date=17 November 2022}} | style="text-align:center;"|20 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|cat4}} |{{center|EF4}} | style="text-align:center;"|{{convert|105|mph|km/h|abbr=on}} | style="text-align:center;"|6 |Tornado outbreak sequence of March 24–28, 2021 – This was day 2 of the outbreak sequence. The high risk was issued at 06Z for a 30% hatched area for tornadoes. A PDS tornado watch was issued, with a >95% chance for both tornadoes and strong tornadoes, and high probabilities for most other categories. Multiple tornado emergencies were issued for at least three different tornadoes. The high risk was discontinued at 01z and downgraded to an enhanced risk as the storm system began weakening and the supercells began dying off, although the strongest tornado, which was rated EF4, took place a few hours after that time, and was east of where the high risk had been in place in earlier outlooks. A total of 20 tornadoes were confirmed during the outlook period.{{cite web |title=SPC Severe Weather Event Review for Thursday March 25, 2021 |url=https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20210325 |website=www.spc.noaa.gov |access-date=30 January 2023}}{{cite web |title=IEM :: Valid Time Event Code (VTEC) App |url=https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=SVSBMX&e=202103251848 |website=Iowa Environmental Mesonet |publisher=Iowa State University |access-date=March 25, 2021}}{{cite web |title=IEM :: Valid Time Event Code (VTEC) App |url=https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=SVSBMX&e=202103252140 |website=Iowa Environmental Mesonet |publisher=Iowa State University |access-date=March 25, 2021}} | |
| {{sort|0331|March 31}}
| {{sort|20230331|2023}} | Upper and Lower Mississippi Valleys{{cite web |title=SPC Severe Weather Event Review for Friday March 31, 2023 |url=https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20230331 |website=www.spc.noaa.gov |access-date=1 April 2023}} | style="text-align:center;"|114 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|cat4}} | {{center|EF4}} | style="text-align:center;"|{{convert|85|mph|km/h|abbr=on}} | style="text-align:center;"|23 | Tornado outbreak of March 31 – April 1, 2023 – Two high risk zones were issued at 1630Z with 30% hatched areas for tornadoes. The northern of the two zones was discontinued at 01Z, whereas the southern zone was subsequently maintained. Multiple tornado emergencies and mass casualty events were issued during the outbreak. A total of 114 tornadoes were confirmed during the outlook period, one of which was rated EF4 and occurred in the northern high risk area prior to its 01Z removal. This was the first instance of two separate high risk areas since the initial 06Z outlook on April 14, 2012, and the first time in the 21st century in which the 1630Z and 20Z outlooks had separate high risk zones. This was also the deadliest high risk day since March 2, 2012.{{Citation needed|date=April 2023}} | |
| May 6
|2024 | style="text-align:center;"|47 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|cat4}} | {{center|EF4}} | style="text-align:center;"|{{Convert|82|mph|km/h|abbr=on}} |File:May 6, 2024 1300Z Storm Prediction Center Day 1 convective outlook.gif |Tornado outbreak of May 6–10, 2024 – A high risk zone was issued at the 13Z outlook and subsequently maintained for a 30% hatched area for tornadoes.{{cite web|url=https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0646.html|title= Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 646 for May 6, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240506122426/http://web.archive.org/screenshot/https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0646.html|archive-date=6 May 2024}}{{cite web|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240506125921/https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html|archive-date=6 May 2024|title= Storm Prediction Center May 6, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook|url=https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html}} 47 tornadoes were confirmed, including a violent EF4 tornado that struck Barnsdall and Bartlesville, Oklahoma after dark, occurring within the high risk area in the 01Z outlook update and killing two people. However, all of the other tornadoes were weak, and the southern portion of the high risk generally lacked tornado reports. | |
| March 15
|2025 | style="text-align:center;"|62 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|cat4}} | {{center|EF4}} | style="text-align:center;"|{{Convert|95|mph|km/h|abbr=on}} | style="text-align:center;"|10 |File:1300Z Day 1 outlook, March 15, 2025.gif |Tornado outbreak of March 13–16, 2025 – A high risk was issued in the 1730Z Day 2 convective outlook, with a 30% risk for significant tornadoes.{{Cite web |title=Storm Prediction Center Mar 14, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook |url=https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2025/day2otlk_20250314_1730.html |access-date=2025-03-14 |website=www.spc.noaa.gov}} It was only the third ever issuance of a Day 2 high risk in SPC history, and the first since April 14, 2012.{{Cite web |date=March 14, 2025 |title=Storm Prediction Center - Twitter |url=https://x.com/nwsspc/status/1900602946527588435 |access-date=March 14, 2025 |website=Twitter (X)}} This is also the first Day 2 high risk under the five category outlook system, which began in October 2014, as well as the first Day 2 high risk since Day 2 individual hazard probability graphics began in January 2020. The high risk area was expanded slightly for the 0600 UTC Day 1 Outlook issuance, with a continued focus on a 30% hatched (significant) area for tornadoes. Multiple intense tornadoes occurred in the High Risk area, particularly across southern Mississippi. This includes the EF4 tornado that struck the northwestern portion of Walthall County, Mississippi near Tylertown, Mississippi.{{cite web |last1=Welty |first1=Chris |title=Mississippi survivors discuss tragedy of Saturday's EF4 tornado strike |url=https://www.fox8live.com/2025/03/18/mississippi-survivors-discuss-tragedy-saturdays-ef4-tornado-strike/ |website=fox8live |publisher=FOX 8 New Orleans |access-date=26 March 2025}} The high risk was discontinued at 0100 UTC update.{{cite web |title=Mar 16, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook |url=https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2025/day1otlk_20250316_0100_prt.gif |website=Storm Prediction Center}} | |
| April 2
|2025 |Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky | style="text-align:center;"| 74 | bgcolor=#{{storm colour|cat3}} | {{center|EF3}} | style="text-align:center;"|{{Convert|100|mph|km/h|abbr=on}} | style="text-align:center;"| 1 |File:Day1otlk 20250402 1300 prt.gif |Tornado outbreak and floods of April 2–7, 2025 – A high risk was issued in the 0600Z Day 1 convective outlook, with a 30% risk for significant tornadoes. The high risk would be expanded southwestward in the 13Z outlook update. Widespread intense severe thunderstorms occurred across the high risk area. Numerous tornado warnings, including several PDS tornado warnings and two tornado emergencies were issued. The high risk was maintained throughout the entire outlook cycle.{{Cite web |date=2025-04-02 |title=Storm Prediction Center Apr 2, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook |url=https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2025/day1otlk_20250402_1300.html |access-date=2025-04-02 |website=www.spc.noaa.gov}} |
See also
Notes
{{Reflist|group=nb}}
References
{{reflist|30em}}
External links
- [http://www.convectiveoutlook.com/highrisk/spc.htm High Risk archive]
{{ClimateUS|state=expanded}}
{{DEFAULTSORT:Storm Prediction Center high risk days}}
Category:Lists of tornadoes in the United States
Category:National Weather Service