Manifold (prediction market)
{{Short description|Online reputation-based prediction market}}
{{Infobox website
| name = Manifold
| logo = Manifold_twitter_logo.jpg
| screenshot =
| caption = Manifold front page
| language = English
| founded = {{start date and age|December 2021}}
| url = {{URL|manifold.markets}}
| current_status = Active
| founder = Austin Chen, James Grugett, Stephen Grugett
}}
Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is an online prediction market platform.{{Cite web |title=Why a "room-temperature superconductor" would be a huge deal |url=https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23816753/superconductor-room-temperature-lk99-quantum-fusion |access-date=2023-08-31 |website=Vox |date=7 August 2023 |language=en |quote=Prediction markets have seen wildly varying odds as participants bet for and against the material working out. |archive-date=2023-08-31 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230831113720/https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23816753/superconductor-room-temperature-lk99-quantum-fusion |url-status=live }}{{Cite web |last=Frick |first=Walter |title=Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets |url=https://www.niemanlab.org/2022/12/journalists-wake-up-to-the-power-of-prediction-markets/ |access-date=2023-08-31 |website=Nieman Lab |archive-date=2023-06-03 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230603011803/https://www.niemanlab.org/2022/12/journalists-wake-up-to-the-power-of-prediction-markets/ |url-status=live }} Users engage in competitive forecasting using play money called 'Mana'.{{cite news |last1=Taylor |first1=Michael |title=Taylor: Can you see into the future? Online prediction markets can — and they let you bet on it. |url=https://www.expressnews.com/business/columnists/michael-taylor/article/online-prediction-markets-see-future-reliably-18612090.php |newspaper=San Antonio Express-News |access-date=6 February 2024}} Topics on Manifold have included the 2024 United States presidential election and the Oscars.{{Cite magazine |last=Henshall |first=Will |date=2024-02-14 |title=Meet the People Making Actual Bets on Love |url=https://time.com/6694798/manifold-love-dating-markets/ |access-date=2024-02-14 |magazine=TIME |language=en}}
Manifold used to support real money betting using 'sweepcash', but this was sunset on March 28 2025.{{Cite web |title=Mana forever! |url=https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Mana-forever-19154492ea7a80c08410ea8c64fac67e |access-date=2025-02-19 |website=manifoldmarkets.notion.site}}
History
Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett. James Grugett is the current CEO of the organization.{{Cite podcast |host=Richard Hanania |title=Mana from Heaven | Stephen Grugett, James Grugett, & Richard Hanania |url=https://www.cspicenter.com/p/43-mana-from-heaven-steven-grugett#details |access-date=2023-08-31 |website=CSPI}}
Manifold received seed funding from the Astral Codex Ten grant program.{{Cite news |last=Roose |first=Kevin |date=2023-10-08 |title=The Wager That Betting Can Change the World |language=en-US |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/08/technology/prediction-markets-manifold-manifest.html |access-date=2023-10-08 |issn=0362-4331}} It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the FTX Future Fund,{{Cite news |last=Ashworth |first=Louis |date=2022-12-19 |title=How to spend a million dollars, by Sam Bankman-Fried |work=Financial Times |url=https://www.ft.com/content/9a3b4b78-b18b-4d1f-b28b-05a73525aa61 |url-status=live |access-date=2023-08-31 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230324012701/https://www.ft.com/content/9a3b4b78-b18b-4d1f-b28b-05a73525aa61 |archive-date=2023-03-24}} and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.{{Cite web |title=SFF-2022-H1 S-Process Recommendations Announcement |url=https://survivalandflourishing.fund/sff-2022-h1-recommendations |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230830155527/https://survivalandflourishing.fund/sff-2022-h1-recommendations |archive-date=2023-08-30 |access-date=2023-08-30 |website=Survival and Flourishing.Fund (SFF) |language=en-US}}
In September 2023, Manifold hosted Manifest, a forecasting conference, in Berkeley, California. Attendees included Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, Richard Hanania, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Robert Miles, and Destiny. The conference was hosted again in 2024 and 2025.{{Cite web |title=Manifest |url=https://www.manifest.is/ |access-date=2025-06-26 |website=www.manifest.is |language=en}}
Market structure
The website uses a play money currency called Mana. Markets use a version of the Uniswap automated market maker, known as "maniswap".{{Cite arXiv |last1=Frongillo |first1=Rafael |last2=Papireddygari |first2=Maneesha |last3=Waggoner |first3=Bo |title=An Axiomatic Characterization of CFMMs and Equivalence to Prediction Markets |date=2023 |class=cs.GT |eprint=2302.00196 }} Formerly, Manifold supported Sweepcash which could be redeemed for real world money for a 5% fee, or cashed out to a charity of the user's choice for no fee.https://docs.manifold.markets/sweepstakes One unit of Sweepcash was equivalent to $1 USD.
See also
References
{{Reflist|30em}}
External links
- [https://manifold.markets/ Manifold website]
- [https://github.com/ManifoldMarkets Manifold GitHub organization] (source code)