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Next Basque regional election

{{Short description|Election in the Spanish region of the Basque Country}}

{{Infobox election

| election_name = Next Basque regional election

| country = Basque Country

| type = parliamentary

| ongoing = yes

| previous_election = 2024 Basque regional election

| previous_year = 2024

| next_election =

| next_year =

| outgoing_members =

| elected_members =

| seats_for_election = All 75 seats in the Basque Parliament

| majority_seats = 38

| opinion_polls = #Opinion polls

| registered =

| turnout =

| election_date = No later than 21 May 2028

| image1 = 170x170px

| leader1 = Imanol Pradales

| party1 = Basque Nationalist Party

| leader_since1 = 27 January 2024

| leaders_seat1 = Biscay

| last_election1 = 27 seats, 34.8%

| seats_before1 = 27

| seats_needed1 = File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg11

| seats1 =

| seat_change1 =

| popular_vote1 =

| percentage1 =

| swing1 =

| image2 = 170x170px

| leader2 = Pello Otxandiano

| party2 = EH Bildu (2023)

| leader_since2 = 11 December 2023

| leaders_seat2 = Álava

| last_election2 = 27 seats, 32.1%

| seats_before2 = 27

| seats_needed2 = File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg11

| seats2 =

| seat_change2 =

| popular_vote2 =

| percentage2 =

| swing2 =

| image3 = 170x170px

| leader3 = Eneko Andueza

| party3 = PSE–EE (PSOE)

| leader_since3 = 30 October 2021

| leaders_seat3 = Biscay

| last_election3 = 12 seats, 14.1%

| seats_before3 = 12

| seats_needed3 = File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg26

| seats3 =

| seat_change3 =

| popular_vote3 =

| percentage3 =

| swing3 =

| image4 = 170x170px

| leader4 = Javier de Andrés

| party4 = People's Party of the Basque Country

| leader_since4 = 4 November 2023

| leaders_seat4 = Álava

| last_election4 = 7 seats, 9.2%

| seats_before4 = 7

| seats_needed4 = File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg31

| seats4 =

| seat_change4 =

| popular_vote4 =

| percentage4 =

| swing4 =

| image5 = 170x170px

| leader5 = Alba García

| party5 = Sumar (electoral platform)

| leader_since5 = 9 January 2024

| leaders_seat5 = —

| last_election5 = 1 seat, 3.3%

| seats_before5 = 1

| seats_needed5 = File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg37

| seats5 =

| seat_change5 =

| popular_vote5 =

| percentage5 =

| swing5 =

| image6 = 170x170px

| leader6 = Amaia Martínez

| party6 = Vox (political party)

| leader_since6 = 3 August 2020

| leaders_seat6 = Álava

| last_election6 = 1 seat, 2.0%

| seats_before6 = 1

| seats_needed6 = File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg37

| seats6 =

| seat_change6 =

| popular_vote6 =

| percentage6 =

| swing6 =

| map_image =

| map_size =

| map_caption =

| title = Lehendakari

| before_election = Imanol Pradales

| before_party = Basque Nationalist Party

| after_election =

| after_party =

}}

The next Basque regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 21 May 2028, to elect the 14th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

Overview

=Electoral system=

The Basque Parliament is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Basque Country, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Basque Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a lehendakari.{{cite act |title=Ley Orgánica 3/1979, de 18 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía para el País Vasco |type=Organic Law |number=3 |language=es |date=18 December 1979 |url=https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-1979-30177&tn=1&p=19791222 |access-date=17 July 2017}} Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Basque Country and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 75 members of the Basque Parliament are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Álava, Biscay and Gipuzkoa, with each being allocated a fixed number of 25 seats in order to provide for an equal parliamentary representation of the three provinces, as required under the regional statute of autonomy.{{cite act |title=Ley 5/1990, de 15 de junio, de Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco |type=Law |number=5 |language=es |date=15 June 1990 |url=https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-2012-2859&tn=1&p=20160107 |access-date=17 July 2017}}

=Election date=

The term of the Basque Parliament expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country (BOPV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 21 April 2024, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 21 April 2028. The election decree is required to be published in the BOPV no later than 28 March 2028 with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 21 May 2028.

The lehendakari has the prerogative to dissolve the Basque Parliament at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a lehendakari within a sixty-day period from the Parliament re-assembly, the Parliament is to be dissolved and a fresh election called.{{cite act |title=Ley 7/1981, de 30 de junio, sobre Ley de Gobierno |type=Law |number=7 |language=es |date=30 June 1981 |url=https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-2012-5927&tn=1&p=20221226 |access-date=9 November 2024}}

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the present time of dissolution.{{cite web |url=https://www.historiaelectoral.com/aeuzkadi.html |title=Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco / Eusko Legebilitzarra (desde 1980) |language=es |website=Historia Electoral.com |access-date=9 November 2024}}

class="wikitable" style="text-align:left;"

|+ Current parliamentary composition

rowspan="2" colspan="2"| Groups

! rowspan="2" colspan="2"| Parties

! colspan="2"| Legislators

Seats

! Total

width="1" style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Basque Nationalist Party}}"|

| Basque Nationalists Parliamentary Group

| width="1" style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Basque Nationalist Party}}"|

| EAJ/PNV

| 27

| 27

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|EH Bildu (2023)}}"|

| EH Bildu Parliamentary Group

| style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|EH Bildu (2023)}}"|

| EH Bildu

| 27

| 27

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left}}"|

| Basque Socialists Parliamentary Group

| style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left}}"|

| PSE–EE (PSOE)

| 12

| 12

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Basque Country}}"|

| Basque People's Parliamentary Group

| style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Basque Country}}"|

| PP

| 7

| 7

rowspan="2" bgcolor="gray"|

| rowspan="2"| Mixed Group

| style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Ezker Anitza}}"|

| EzAn–IU

| 1

| rowspan="2"| 2

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}}"|

| Vox

| 1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.{{cite act |title=Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General |type=Organic Law |number=5 |language=es |date=19 June 1985 |url=https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-1985-11672&tn=1&p=20240802 |access-date=9 November 2024}}

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

class="wikitable" style="line-height:1.35em; text-align:left;"
colspan="2" rowspan="2"| Candidacy

! rowspan="2"| Parties and
alliances

! colspan="2" rowspan="2"| Leading candidate

! rowspan="2"| Ideology

! colspan="2"| Previous result

! rowspan="2"| {{abbr|Gov.|Government}}

! rowspan="2"| {{abbr|Ref.|References}}

Vote %

! Seats

width="1" style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Basque Nationalist Party}}"|

| align="center"| EAJ/PNV

| {{Collapsible list

| title = List

| bullets = on

| Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV)

}}

| 50px

| Imanol Pradales

| Basque nationalism
Christian democracy
Social democracy

| align="center"| 34.8%

| {{big|27}}

| {{ya}}

|

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|EH Bildu (2023)}}"|

| align="center"| EH Bildu

| {{Collapsible list

| title = List

| bullets = on

| Basque Country Gather (EH Bildu)
{{smaller|– Create (Sortu)
– Basque Solidarity (EA)
– Alternative (Alternatiba)}}

}}

| 50px

| Pello Otxandiano

| Basque independence
Abertzale left
Socialism

| align="center"| 32.1%

| {{big|27}}

| {{na}}

|

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left}}"|

| align="center"| PSE–EE
(PSOE)

| {{Collapsible list

| title = List

| bullets = on

| Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left (PSE–EE (PSOE))

}}

| 50px

| Eneko Andueza

| Social democracy

| align="center"| 14.1%

| {{big|12}}

| {{ya}}

|

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Basque Country}}"|

| align="center"| PP

| {{Collapsible list

| title = List

| bullets = on

| People's Party (PP)

}}

| 50px

| Javier de Andrés

| Conservatism
Christian democracy

| align="center"| 9.2%

| {{big|7}}

| {{na}}

|

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Sumar (electoral platform)}}"|

| align="center"| Sumar

| {{Collapsible list

| title = List

| bullets = on

| Unite Movement (SMR)

| Plural Left–United Left (EzAn–IU)
{{smaller|– Communist Party of the Basque Country (PCE/EPK)
– The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om))
– Republican Left (IR)}}

| Greens Equo (VQ)

| More Basque Country–Build the Basque Country (ME/EE)

}}

| 50px

| Alba García

| Progressivism
Left-wing populism
Green politics

| align="center"| 3.3%

| {{big|1}}

| {{na}}

| {{cite news |date=30 November 2024 |title=Alba García Martín, elegida coordinadora general de Sumar Mugimendua con un 85% de apoyo |url=https://www.eldiario.es/euskadi/alba-garcia-martin-elegida-coordinadora-general-sumar-mugimendua-85-apoyo_1_11865879.html |language=es |newspaper=elDiario.es |agency=Europa Press |location=Bilbao |access-date=19 December 2024}}

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}}"|

| align="center"| Vox

| {{Collapsible list

| title = List

| bullets = on

| Vox (Vox)

}}

| 50px

| Amaia Martínez

| Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism

| align="center"| 2.0%

| {{big|1}}

| {{na}}

|

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

=Voting intention estimates=

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 38 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.

class="wikitable collapsible" style="text-align:center; font-size:95%; line-height:16px;"
style="height:42px;"

! style="width:250px;" rowspan="2"| Polling firm/Commissioner

! style="width:125px;" rowspan="2"| Fieldwork date

! style="width:50px;" rowspan="2"| Sample size

! style="width:45px;" rowspan="2"| Turnout

! style="width:35px;"| PNV

! style="width:35px;"| File:Icono de EH Bildu (2023).svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logotipo PSE-EE.svg

! style="width:35px;"| File: Logo PP Vasco 2022.svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:Sumar icon.svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo de Elkarrekin Podemos (2024).svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:VOX logo.svg

! style="width:30px;" rowspan="2"| Lead

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Basque Nationalist Party}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|EH Bildu (2023)}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Basque Country}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Sumar (electoral platform)}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Podemos (Spanish political party, 2022)}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}};"|

Ikerfel/GPS{{cite web |title=Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Febrero 2025) |url=https://www.euskadi.eus/contenidos/documentacion/25sv85aurreikuspena/es_def/adjuntos/25sv85_aurreikuspenak.pdf |language=es |work=Basque Government |date=7 February 2025}}

| 28–31 Jan 2025

| 3,030

| 58.2

| {{Party shading/PNV}}| 35.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=28}}

| 32.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=27}}

| 14.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=11}}

| 9.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=8}}

| 2.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 2.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 2.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=1}}

| style="background:{{party color|Basque Nationalist Party}}; color:white;"| 3.3

ElectoPanel/Electomanía{{cite web |title=EP Euskadi (31ene): el PNV sube y seguiría como primera fuerza |url=https://electomania.es/ep-euskadi-31ene-el-pnv-sube-y-seguiria-como-primera-fuerza/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=31 January 2025}}

| 29 Dec–28 Jan 2025

| 1,450

|?

| {{Party shading/PNV}}| 34.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=28}}

| 31.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=28}}

| 12.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=10}}

| 9.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=7}}

| 2.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 3.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| 1.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| style="background:{{party color|Basque Nationalist Party}}; color:white;"| 2.6

Ikerfel/GPS{{cite web |title=Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Noviembre 2024) |url=https://www.euskadi.eus/contenidos/documentacion/24sv84aurreikuspena/es_def/adjuntos/24sv84_aurreikuspenak.pdf |language=es |work=Basque Government |date=15 November 2024}}

| 5–8 Nov 2024

| 3,030

| 60.2

| {{Party shading/PNV}}| 35.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=28}}

| 32.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=27}}

| 14.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=13}}

| 9.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=7}}

| 2.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 2.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 2.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| style="background:{{party color|Basque Nationalist Party}}; color:white;"| 3.2

ElectoPanel/Electomanía{{cite web |title=ElectoPanel Euskadi (oct'24): PNV y EH Bildu empatan en escaños, Podemos se come a Sumar |url=https://electomania.es/electopanel-euskadi-oct24-pnv-y-eh-bildu-empatan-en-escanos-podemos-se-come-a-sumar/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=30 October 2024}}

| 29 Sep–27 Oct 2024

| 1,450

|?

| {{Party shading/PNV}}| 34.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=27}}

| 31.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=27}}

| 12.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=10}}

| 9.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=7}}

| 3.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=1}}

| 4.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| 1.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| style="background:{{party color|Basque Nationalist Party}}; color:white;"| 2.2

style="background:#EFEFEF;"

| 2024 EP election

| 9 Jun 2024

| {{N/A}}

| 48.8

| 22.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=(17)}}

| {{Party shading/EHBildu (2023)}}| 26.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=(22)}}

| 26.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=(23)}}

| 11.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=(9)}}

| 3.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=(2)}}

| 3.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=(1)}}

| 2.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=(1)}}

| style="background:{{party color|EH Bildu (2023)}}; color:white;"| 0.3

colspan="12" style="background:#A0A0A0"|
style="background:#EFEFEF;"

| 2024 regional election

| 21 Apr 2024

| {{N/A}}

| 60.0

| {{Party shading/PNV}}| 34.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=27}}

| 32.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=27}}

| 14.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=12}}

| 9.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=7}}

| 3.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=1}}

| 2.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 2.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=1}}

| style="background:{{party color|Basque Nationalist Party}}; color:white;"| 2.7

colspan="12" style="background:#A0A0A0"|

=Voting preferences=

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

class="wikitable collapsible collapsed" style="text-align:center; font-size:90%; line-height:14px;"
style="height:42px;"

! style="width:250px;" rowspan="2"| Polling firm/Commissioner

! style="width:125px;" rowspan="2"| Fieldwork date

! style="width:50px;" rowspan="2"| Sample size

! style="width:35px;"| PNV

! style="width:35px;"| File:Icono de EH Bildu (2023).svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logotipo PSE-EE.svg

! style="width:35px;"| File: Logo PP Vasco 2022.svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:Sumar icon.svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo de Elkarrekin Podemos (2024).svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:VOX logo.svg

! style="width:35px;" rowspan="2"| {{Qmark}}

! style="width:35px;" rowspan="2"| {{cross}}

! style="width:30px;" rowspan="2"| Lead

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Basque Nationalist Party}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|EH Bildu (2023)}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Basque Country}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Sumar (electoral platform)}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Podemos (Spanish political party, 2022)}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}};"|

Ikerfel/GPS

| 28–31 Jan 2025

| 3,030

| {{Party shading/PNV}}| 22.1

| 19.6

| 6.9

| 2.3

| 0.9

| 1.4

| 0.7

| 28.1

| 14.1

| style="background:{{party color|Basque Nationalist Party}}; color:white;"| 2.5

Ikerfel/GPS

| 5–8 Nov 2024

| 3,030

| {{Party shading/PNV}}| 22.9

| 20.1

| 7.7

| 1.8

| 1.0

| 1.6

| 0.8

| 29.4

| 11.6

| style="background:{{party color|Basque Nationalist Party}}; color:white;"| 2.8

style="background:#EFEFEF;"

| 2024 EP election

| 9 Jun 2024

| {{N/A}}

| 13.1

| {{Party shading/EHBildu (2023)}}| 13.3

| 11.4

| 5.8

| 1.7

| 1.6

| 1.4

| {{N/A}}

| 49.1

| style="background:{{party color|EH Bildu (2023)}}; color:white;"| 0.2

colspan="13" style="background:#A0A0A0"|
style="background:#EFEFEF;"

| 2024 regional election

| 21 Apr 2024

| {{N/A}}

| {{Party shading/PNV}}| 21.6

| 20.0

| 8.7

| 5.7

| 2.0

| 1.4

| 1.2

| {{N/A}}

| 37.5

| style="background:{{party color|Basque Nationalist Party}}; color:white;"| 1.6

colspan="13" style="background:#A0A0A0"|

References

;Opinion poll sources

{{reflist|group="p"}}

;Other

{{reflist}}

{{Basque elections}}

{{Regional elections in Spain in the 2020s}}

Basque Country

2020s