Peter Turchin

Peter Turchin was born in 1957 in Obninsk, Russia, and in 1964 he moved with his family to Moscow. In 1975 he enrolled at Moscow State University's Faculty of Biology and studied there until 1977, when his father, Soviet dissident Valentin Turchin, was exiled from the Soviet Union. In 1980 Turchin received a B.A. (cum laude) in biology from New York University, and in 1985 a Ph.D. in zoology from Duke University. While Turchin's training is as a theoretical biologist he holds no degrees in history.{{Cite web |title=Professor Peter Turchin |url=https://www.anthro.ox.ac.uk/people/professor-peter-turchin |access-date=2025-02-05 |website=www.anthro.ox.ac.uk |language=en}}

File:clio.jpg by Johannes Vermeer]]

Throughout his career Turchin has made contributions to various fields, such as economic history and historical dynamics. He is one of the founders of cliodynamics, the scientific discipline at the intersection of historical macrosociology, cliometrics, and mathematical modeling of social processes. Turchin developed an original theory explaining how large historical empires evolve by the mechanism of multilevel selection.{{cite journal |last1=Turchin |first1=P |year=2009 |title=A Theory for Formation of Large Empires |url=http://peterturchin.com/PDF/Turchin_JGH_2009.pdf |journal=Journal of Global History |volume=4 |issue=2|pages=191–207 |doi=10.1017/s174002280900312x|s2cid=73597670 }} His research on secular cyclesTurchin P. and Korotayev A. 2006. [http://www.socionauki.ru/journal/files/seh/2006_2/population_dynamics_and_internal_warfare.pdf Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: A Reconsideration]. Social Evolution & History 5(2): 112–147; Turchin P. and Nefedov S. 2009. [http://press.princeton.edu/titles/8904.html Secular Cycles]. Princeton University Press. has contributed to our understanding of the collapse of complex societies as has his re-interpretation of Ibn Khaldun's notion of asabiyya as "collective solidarity".{{citation |last=Turchin |first=P. |title=Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall |year=2003 |publisher=Princeton University Press }}.Korotayev A.V., Khaltourina D.A. [https://www.academia.edu/27503953/Introduction_to_Social_Macrodynamics_Secular_Cycles_and_Millennial_Trends_in_Africa Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa.] Moscow: URSS, 2006. {{ISBN|5-484-00560-4}}.

One of Turchin's most prominent fields of research is his study of the hypothesis that population pressure causes increased warfare. Turchin, in collaboration with Korotayev, has shown that negative results do not falsify the population-warfare hypothesis. Population and warfare are dynamical variables. If their interaction causes sustained oscillations, then we do not in general expect to find strong correlation between the two variables measured at the same time (that is, unlagged). Turchin and Korotayev have explored mathematically what the dynamical patterns of interaction between population and warfare (focusing on internal warfare) might be in stateless and state societies. Next, they tested the model predictions in several empirical case studies: early modern England, Han and Tang China, and the Roman Empire. Their empirical results have lent support to the population-warfare theory: Turchin and Korotayev have found that there is a tendency for population numbers and internal warfare intensity to oscillate with the same period but shifted in phase (with warfare peaks following population peaks). Furthermore, they have demonstrated that the rates of change of the two variables behave precisely as predicted by the theory: population rate of change is negatively affected by warfare intensity, while warfare rate of change is positively affected by population density.

In 2010 Turchin published research using 40 combined social indicators to predict that there would be worldwide social unrest in the 2020s.{{cite journal |last1= Turchin|first1=Peter |date= 4 February 2010|title=Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade|journal=Nature|volume=463 |issue=607|page= 608|doi= 10.1038/463608a|pmid=20130632 |bibcode=2010Natur.463..608T |doi-access=free}}{{cite web|url=https://www.livescience.com/22109-cycles-violence-2020.html|title=Will the US Really Experience a Violent Upheaval in 2020?|date=3 August 2012|website=Live Science}} He subsequently cited the success of Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign as evidence that "negative trends seem to be accelerating" and that there has been an "unprecedented collapse of social norms governing civilized discourse".{{Cite web|url=https://today.uconn.edu/2016/12/using-social-science-to-predict-the-future/|title=Social Instability Lies Ahead, Researcher Says|date=2016-12-27|website=UConn Today|language=en-US|access-date=2019-07-17}} In 2020, Turchin and Jack Goldstone predicted that political and civic unrest in the United States would continue regardless of the party in power until a leader took action to reduce inequality and improve the social indicators that are tracked in their research.{{cite journal |last1=Turchin |first1=Peter |last2=Goldstone |first2=Jack |title=Welcome To The 'Turbulent Twenties' |url=https://www.noemamag.com/welcome-to-the-turbulent-twenties/ |website=NOEMA |date=10 September 2020 |access-date=19 October 2020}}

Turchin has published over 200 scientific articles (including more than a dozen in Nature, Science, or PNAS) and at least eight books. He is the founder of the journal, Cliodynamics, "...dedicated to 'the search for general principles explaining the functioning and dynamics of historical societies'", and manages a blog, Cliodynamica.{{cite web |title=Cliodynamica: A Blog about the Evolution of Civilizations |url=http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/ |website=Cliodynamica |date=24 October 2016 |access-date=18 January 2021}}

• {{Cite book |last=Turchin |first=Peter |title=Quantitative Analysis of Movement: Measuring and Modeling Population Redistribution in Animals and Plants|url=https://archive.org/details/quantitativeanal0000turc|publisher=Sinauer Associates |year=1998 |isbn=978-0878938476}}
• {{Cite book |last=Turchin |first=Peter |title=Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis |publisher=Princeton University Press |year=2003 |isbn=978-0691090214}}
• {{Cite book |last=Turchin |first=Peter |title=Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall |publisher=Princeton University Press |year=2003 |isbn=978-0691116693}}
• {{Cite book |last=Turchin |first=Peter |title=War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires |publisher=Plume |year=2007 |isbn=978-0452288195}}
• {{Cite book |last=Turchin |first=Peter |title=Secular Cycles |last2=Nefedov |first2=Sergey A. |publisher=Princeton University Press |year=2009 |isbn=978-0691136967}}
• {{citation |last=Turchin |first=P. |title=Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth |year=2016 |publisher=Beresta Books |isbn=978-0996139519}}.
• {{Cite book |last=Turchin |first=Peter |title=Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History |publisher=Beresta Books |year=2016 |isbn=978-0996139540|url = https://archive.org/details/ages-of-discord-a-structural-d-peter-turchin}}
• {{cite book |last1=Turchin |first1=Peter |last2=Hoyer |first2=Daniel |title=Figuring Out the Past; The 3,495 Vital Statistics that Explain World History |publisher=Economist Books |year=2020 |isbn=9781541762688}}
• {{Cite book |last=Turchin |first=Peter |title=End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration |publisher=Allen Lane |year=2023 |isbn=978-0241553480}}

• {{Citation |last1=Turchin |first1=P. |last2=Taylor |first2=A. D. |last3=Reeve |first3=J. D. |name-list-style=amp |year=1999 |title=Dynamical role of predators in population cycles of a forest insect: an experimental test |journal=Science |volume=285 |issue=5430 |pages=1068–1071 |doi=10.1126/science.285.5430.1068|pmid=10446053}}
• {{Citation |last1=Turchin |first1=P. |last2=Oksanen |first2=L. |last3=Ekerholm |first3=P. |last4=Oksanen |first4=T. |last5=Henttonen |first5=H. |name-list-style=amp |year=2000 |title=Are lemmings prey or predators? |journal=Nature |volume=405 |issue=6786 |pages=562–565 |doi=10.1038/35014595|pmid=10850713|bibcode=2000Natur.405..562T |s2cid=1945851 }}
• {{Citation |last1=Burtsev |first1=M. |last2=Turchin |first2=P. |year=2006 |title=Evolution of cooperative strategies from first principles |journal=Nature |volume=440 |issue=7087 |pages=1041–1044 |doi=10.1038/nature04470|pmid=16625195|bibcode=2006Natur.440.1041B |s2cid=4340926 }}
• Turchin P. (2006). [http://www.socionauki.ru/journal/files/seh/2006_2/population_dynamics_and_internal_warfare.pdf Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: A Reconsideration]. Social Evolution & History 5(2): 112–147 (with Andrey Korotayev).
• {{citation |last=Turchin |first=P. |editor1-last=Ostfeld |editor1-first=R. S. |editor2-last=Schlesinger |editor2-first=W. H. |chapter=Long-term population cycles in human societies |title=The Year in Ecology and Conservation Biology, 2009 |year=2009 |pages=1–17 |chapter-url=http://cliodynamics.info/PDF/RevSEC.pdf |access-date=2009-08-26 |archive-date=2011-07-21 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110721193004/http://cliodynamics.info/PDF/RevSEC.pdf |url-status=dead }}
• {{Citation|last1=Turchin |first1=P. |last2=Scheidel |first2=W. |year=2009 |title=Coin Hoards Speak of Population Declines in Ancient Rome |journal=PNAS |volume=106 |number=4 |pages=17276–17279 |doi=10.1073/pnas.0904576106 |pmid=19805043 |pmc=2762679|bibcode=2009PNAS..10617276T |doi-access=free }}
• {{cite journal |last1=Turchin |first1=P. |last2=Currie |first2=T.E. |last3=Turner |first3=E.A. |last4=Gavrilets |first4=S. |year=2013 |title=War, space, and the evolution of Old World complex societies |journal=Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A |volume=110 |issue=41 |pages=16384–9 |doi=10.1073/pnas.1308825110|pmid=24062433 |pmc=3799307|bibcode=2013PNAS..11016384T |doi-access=free }}
• {{cite journal |last1=Whitehouse |first1=H. |last2=François |first2=P. |last3=Savage |first3=P. |last4=Currie |first4=T. |last5=Feeney |first5=K. |last6=Cioni |first6=E. |last7=Purcell |first7=R. |last8=Ross |first8=R. |last9=Larson |first9=J. |last10=Baines |first10=J. |last11=Ter Haar |first11=B. |last12=Covey |first12=A. |last13=Turchin |first13=P. |year=2019 |title=Complex societies precede moralizing gods throughout world history |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1043-4 |journal=Nature |volume=568 |number=7751 |pages=226–229 |doi=10.1038/s41586-019-1043-4|pmid=30894750 |bibcode=2019Natur.568..226W|hdl=10871/36936 |s2cid=84186554 |hdl-access=free }}{{Retracted|doi=10.1038/s41586-021-03656-3|pmid=34234342|http://retractionwatch.com/2021/07/07/critique-topples-nature-paper-on-belief-in-gods/ Retraction Watch|intentional=yes}} ([https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03656-3 Article retracted on July 7, 2021])
• [https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/2153599X.2022.2065345 Explaining the rise of moralizing religions: A test of competing hypotheses using the Seshat Databank. Religion, Brain & Behavior, 2023, 13(2), 167-194.]

• Elite overproduction
• Structural-demographic theory
• Seshat (project)

{{Reflist}}

• {{cite news|last1=Aldhous |first1=Peter |title=This Scary Statistic Predicts Growing US Political Violence — Whatever Happens On Election Day |work=BuzzFeed |date=24 October 2020 |url=https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/political-violence-inequality-us-election |access-date=22 November 2020}} Article on work by Goldstone and Turchin.
• {{cite journal |last1=Goldstone |first1=Jack A. |last2=Turchin |first2=Peter |title=Welcome To The 'Turbulent Twenties' |journal=Noema Magazine |date=10 September 2020 |url=https://www.noemamag.com/welcome-to-the-turbulent-twenties/ |access-date=22 November 2020 |publisher=Berggruen Institute}}
• {{cite book |last1=Goldstone |first1=Jack A. |title=Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World: Population Change and State Breakdown in England, France, Turkey, and China,1600-1850 |date=2016|orig-date=1991|publisher=Routledge |isbn=9781315408606 |edition=25th Anniversary |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=mOu_DQAAQBAJ |access-date=22 November 2020}} Turchin adopted and expanded Goldstone's model to apply to modern industrial states. They later became collaborators.
• Osnos, Evan, "Ruling-Class Rules: How to thrive in the power elite – while declaring it your enemy", The New Yorker, 29 January 2024, pp. 18–23. "In the nineteen-twenties... American elites, some of whom feared a Bolshevik revolution, consented to reform... Under Franklin D. Roosevelt... the U.S. raised taxes, took steps to protect unions, and established a minimum wage. The costs, Turchin writes, 'were borne by the American ruling class.'... Between the nineteen-thirties and the nineteen-seventies, a period that scholars call the Great Compression, economic equality narrowed, except among Black Americans... But by the nineteen-eighties the Great Compression was over. As the rich grew richer than ever, they sought to turn their money into political power; spending on politics soared." (p. 22.) "[N]o democracy can function well if people are unwilling to lose power – if a generation of leaders... becomes so entrenched that it ages into gerontocracy; if one of two major parties denies the arithmetic of elections; if a cohort of the ruling class loses status that it once enjoyed and sets out to salvage it." (p. 23.)

{{Wikiquote}}

{{Library resources box|by=yes|viaf=27281560}}

• [https://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/ Cliodynamica] A Blog about the Evolution of Civilizations @PeterTurchin.com
• {{cite web|url=https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21528781.800-calculated-violence-numbers-that-predict-revolutions.html|title=Calculated violence: Numbers that predict revolutions|date=2012-08-23|author=Bob Holmes|website=New Scientist|url-access=subscription }}
• Maini, Alessandro. "On Historical Dynamics by P. Turchin". Biophysical Economics and Sustainability 5, No. 1 (4 February 2020): 3. [https://doi.org/10.1007/s41247-019-0063-x DOI: 10.1007/s41247-019-0063-x].

{{Authority control}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Turchin, Peter}}

Category:1957 births

Category:American evolutionary biologists

Category:World system scholars

Category:Complex systems scientists

Category:Living people

Category:New York University alumni

Category:Duke University alumni

Category:Fellows of the American Association for the Advancement of Science

Category:University of Connecticut faculty

Category:Writers from Moscow

Category:Soviet emigrants to the United States

Category:Russian scientists