Peter Zeihan

{{Short description|American author and geopolitical analyst (born 1973)}}

{{infobox person

| name = Peter Zeihan

| image = Peter Zeihan yt.jpg

| caption = Zeihan in October 2022

| birth_date = {{birth date and age|1973|01|18}}

| nationality = American

| occupation = {{ubl| Geopolitical analyst | Author}}

| website = {{url|https://zeihan.com}}

| module = {{Listen|pos=center|embed=yes|filename= Peter Zeihan Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.ogg|title=Peter Zeihan's voice|type=speech|description=Recorded December 2022}}

}}

Peter Henry Zeihan ({{IPAc-en|'|z|aɪ|.|ə|n}}; born January 18, 1973) is an American author on geopolitics. He previously worked for the geopolitical advising firm Stratfor.Denning, Liam (December 3, 2014). [https://www.wsj.com/articles/book-review-the-accidental-superpower-by-peter-zeihan-1417653112 "The Coming Hobbesian World." Review of The Accidental Superpower], by Peter Zeihan. Wall Street Journal. Retrieved December 3, 2014.{{Cite web |last=Immerwahr |first=Daniel |authorlink=Daniel Immerwahr |date=November 10, 2022 |title=Are we really prisoners of geography? |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/10/are-we-really-prisoners-of-geography-maps-geopolitics |access-date=November 16, 2022 |website=The Guardian}} Zeihan is the author of several books, including The Absent Superpower (2017), Disunited Nations (2020), and The End of the World Is Just the Beginning (2022).{{cite web |url=https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/pen-and-sword-disunited-nations-peter-zeihan |title=Pen and Sword: Disunited Nations, with Peter Zeihan (podcast) |publisher=Stratfor |date=April 2, 2020 |access-date=June 11, 2020}}{{cite web |title=How Coronavirus Is Accelerating the End of Globalism, Feat. Peter Zeihan |first= Nathaniel |last= Whittemore |date= April 1, 2020|url=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-accelerating-end-globalism-feat-190000690.html |website=finance.yahoo.com |access-date=June 11, 2020}}

Early life and education

Zeihan was born in 1973,{{cite web|url=https://www.boardroominsiders.com/executive-profiles/1000370/Zeihan-on-Geopolitics/Peter-Zeihan|title=Executive Profile – Zeihan on Geopolitics – Peter Zeihan – Customer Intelligence |website=www.boardroominsiders.com |access-date=January 11, 2018|archive-date=January 11, 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180111170157/https://www.boardroominsiders.com/executive-profiles/1000370/Zeihan-on-Geopolitics/Peter-Zeihan |url-status=dead}} and grew up as the adopted son of educators Jerald and Agnes Zeihan in Marshalltown, Iowa. He graduated from Marshalltown High School in 1992.{{Cite web |last=Maharry |first=Robert |date=May 10, 2022 |title=Marshalltown native prepares to publish fourth book on geopolitics, demography |url=https://www.timesrepublican.com/news/todays-news/2022/05/marshalltown-native-prepares-to-publish-fourth-book-on-geopolitics-demography/ |access-date=March 10, 2023 |website=Times Republican |language=en-US}} In 1995, he earned a BS in political science at Northeast Missouri State University and in 1997 a postgraduate diploma in Asian studies at the University of Otago in New Zealand.{{Cite web |url=https://www.metisstrategy.com/interview/peter-zeihan/ |title=Peter Zeihan}} He also attended the University of Kentucky's Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce.{{Cite web |title=Peter Zeihan - Zeihan on Geopolitics {{!}} LinkedIn |url=https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterzeihan/ |archive-url=http://web.archive.org/web/20250310155320/https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterzeihan/ |archive-date=2025-03-10 |access-date=2025-03-13 |website=www.linkedin.com |language=en}}{{Cite web |title=Peter Zeihan - September 26, 2023 {{!}} Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce |url=https://pattersonschool.uky.edu/peter-zeihan-september-26-2023 |access-date=2025-03-13 |website=pattersonschool.uky.edu}}

Career

After completing his education, Zeihan worked for the American embassy in Australia and at the Center for Political and Strategic Studies, a think tank founded by Susan Eisenhower.{{Citation needed|date=April 2025}}

= Stratfor =

In 2000, he joined the Austin, Texas-based geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor as an analyst, where he worked for 12 years, eventually becoming vice president.

Zeihan left Stratfor in 2012 and founded Zeihan on Geopolitics, a consulting firm. His clients have included energy companies, financial institutions, business associations, agricultural organizations, universities, and government entities.{{cite web |date=July 20, 2022 |title=Peter Zeihan – Geopolitics Speaker & Strategist |url=https://www.nsb.com/speakers/peter-zeihan/ |access-date=February 11, 2023 |website=National Speakers Bureau}}

= Writings =

While still at Stratfor, Zeihan co-authored his first book, A Crucible of Nations, with Lauren Goodrich in 2011.{{Citation needed|date=April 2025}}

In 2014 he released The Accidental Superpower,{{Cite book |last=Zeihan |first=Peter |title=The accidental superpower: the next generation of American preeminence and the coming global disaster |date=2014 |publisher=Twelve |isbn=978-1-4555-8366-9 |edition=1 |location=New York, NY |publication-date=2014}} which examines the impact of geography on a state's economic, industrial, and military competitiveness. The book discusses the strategic advantages of navigable rivers, ocean access, and transportation infrastructure, alongside demographic projections.{{cite news |last1=Zakaria |first1=Fareed |title=America's prospects are promising indeed |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fareed-zakaria-americas-prospects-are-promising-indeed/2014/11/20/eb91209a-70f3-11e4-ad12-3734c461eab6_story.html |access-date=November 20, 2014 |newspaper=The Washington Post |authorlink=Fareed Zakaria}}{{Cite book |url=https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/peter-zeihan/the-accidental-superpower/ |title=The Accidental Superpower by Peter Zeihan |publisher=Kirkus Reviews |language=en}} Using maps, Zeihan discusses the critical importance of navigable rivers, access to oceans, and reliable road and rail networks. The Accidental Superpower also uses demographic calculations of national populations to forecast how different countries will maintain an edge in the geopolitical future.{{Cite news |last=Ikenberry |first=G. John |date=February 16, 2015 |title=The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder |url=https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/2015-02-16/accidental-superpower-next-generation-american-preeminence-and |access-date=October 20, 2023 |work=Foreign Affairs |language=en-US |issue=March/April 2015 |issn=0015-7120}}

Criticism of Zeihan’s analysis

Critics of Peter Zeihan’s analysis argue that while his assessments are supported by strong arguments and data,{{cite journal |title=The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization By Peter Zeihan |url=https://www.independent.org/publications/tir/article.asp?id=1830 |journal=The Independent Review |volume=27 |issue=4}} they often take a deterministic approach to demographic and geopolitical trends.{{Cite journal |last=Galjak |first=Marko |date=2023-07-10 |title=Peter Zeihan: The End of the World Is Just the Beginning - Mapping the Collapse of Globalization |url=https://stnv.idn.org.rs/index.php/STNV/article/view/516 |journal=Stanovnistvo |language=en |volume=61 |issue=1 |pages=115–119 |doi=10.59954/stnv.516 |issn=2217-3986|doi-access=free }}{{Cite AV media |url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XupM5_zHDbM&feature=youtu.be |title=Economist Fact-Checks Zeihan's China Collapse Story |date=2023-10-31 |last=Money & Macro |access-date=2025-02-22 |via=YouTube}} Some scholars contend that this perspective underestimates other significant factors, such as technological advancements, geopolitical shifts, and socio-cultural changes.

A common critique is that Zeihan’s scenarios assume inevitability, disregarding the unpredictability of global events and technological innovation.

Some analysts argue that Zeihan does not fully account for factors like increased longevity and productivity, particularly in his assessments of economic and demographic sustainability. For instance, his projections regarding China’s decline have been criticized for not considering potential reforms in pension systems and government fiscal policies.

In the 2023 update of his book The Accidental Superpower, Zeihan added an appendix to each chapter of the original 2013 edition, evaluating the accuracy of his earlier predictions. Among other notes, he acknowledged that he underestimated the role of Canadian national identity in Alberta’s political alignment and overestimated Russia’s military capabilities.{{Cite book |last=Zeihan |first=Peter |title=The accidental superpower: ten years on |date=2023 |publisher=Twelve |isbn=978-1-5387-6734-4 |edition= |location=New York}}

Publications

{{cite book |first1=Lauren |last1=Goodrich |first2=Peter |last2=Zeihan |date=2011 |title=A Crucilble of Nations: The Geopolitics of the Caucasus |location=Austin, TX |publisher= Stratfor Global Intelligence |isbn=9781461109426 |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=ISBN9781461109426 |access-date=6 November 2024 |ref=none}}
{{cite book |title=The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disaster |display-authors=0 |first=Peter |last=Zeihan |publisher=Grand Central Publishing |date=4 Nov 2014 |isbn=9781455583669 |ref=none}}
{{cite book |title=The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World without America |display-authors=0 |first=Peter |last=Zeihan |date=January 1, 2017 |publisher=Zeihan on Geopolitics |url=https://archive.org/details/absentsuperpower0000zeih |isbn=9780998505206 |ref=none}}
{{cite book |title=Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World |display-authors=0 |first=Peter |last=Zeihan |publisher=Harper Business |date=March 3, 2020 |isbn=9780062913685 |ref=none}}
{{cite book |title=The End of the World is just the Beginning {{!}} The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization |display-authors=0 |first=Peter |last=Zeihan |publisher=Harper Business |date=June 14, 2022 |isbn=9780063230477 |ref=none}}
{{cite book |first1=Peter |last1=Zeihan |date=December 26, 2023 |title=The Accidental Superpower: Ten Years On |location=United States |publisher=Twelve |isbn=9781538767344 |url=https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23557046-the-accidental-superpower |edition= |publication-date=2023 |ref=none}}