Potential superpower#China

{{Further|Chinese Century|China's peaceful rise|}}

The People's Republic of China has arguably received the most consistent coverage in the popular press of its potential superpower status,{{cite web |url = http://edition.cnn.com/SPECIALS/1999/china.50/asian.superpower/ |title = Visions of China – Asian Superpower |website = CNN |year = 1999 |access-date=19 July 2014 }}{{cite web |url = https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/01/china-military-presence-superpower-collision-japan |title = China's military presence is growing. Does a superpower collision loom? |website = The Guardian |date=1 January 2014 |access-date=19 July 2014 }}{{cite journal|author=Cordesman, Anthony|date=1 October 2019|title=China and the United States: Cooperation, Competition, and/or Conflict|url=https://www.csis.org/analysis/china-and-united-states-cooperation-competition-andor-conflict|access-date=22 March 2021|journal=Center for Strategic and International Studies|quote=Seen from this perspective, such trends clearly that show that China already is a true economic superpower with growing resources and a steadily improving technology base. Its military structure is evolving to the point where China can compare or compete with the U.S. — at least in Asia.}}{{cite web|author1=Silver, Laura|author2=Devlin, Kat|author3=Huang, Christine|date=5 December 2019|title=China's Economic Growth Mostly Welcomed in Emerging Markets, but Neighbors Wary of Its Influence|url=https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/12/05/chinas-economic-growth-mostly-welcomed-in-emerging-markets-but-neighbors-wary-of-its-influence/|access-date=22 March 2021|work=Pew Research Center|quote=China has emerged as a global economic superpower in recent decades. It is not only the world’s second largest economy and the largest exporter by value, but it has also been investing in overseas infrastructure and development at a rapid clip}}{{cite news|author=Lendon, Brad|date=5 March 2021|title=China has built the world's largest navy. Now what's Beijing going to do with it?|publisher=CNN|url=https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/05/china/china-world-biggest-navy-intl-hnk-ml-dst/index.html|access-date=22 March 2021|quote=In 2018, China held 40% of the world's shipbuilding market by gross tons, according to United Nations figures cited by the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, well ahead of second place South Korea at 25%. Put in a historical perspective, China's shipbuilding numbers are staggering – dwarfing even the U.S. efforts of World War II. China built more ships in one year of peace time (2019) than the U.S. did in four of war (1941–1945).}}{{cite web|author=Lemahieu, Herve|date=29 May 2019|title=Five big takeaways from the 2019 Asia Power Index|url=https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/power-shifts-fevered-times-2019-asia-power-index|access-date=22 March 2021|publisher=Lowy Institute|quote=China, the emerging superpower, netted the highest gains in overall power in 2019, ranking first in half of the eight Index measures. For the first time, China narrowly edged out the United States in the Index’s assessment of economic resources. In absolute terms China’s economy grew by more than the total size of Australia’s economy in 2018. The world’s largest trading nation has also paradoxically seen its GDP become less dependent on exports. This makes China less vulnerable to an escalating trade war than most other Asian economies.}} and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic and military superpower by academics and other experts.{{cite web |first = Chito | last=Romana |url = https://abcnews.go.com/International/china-replace-us-top-superpower/story?id=9986355 |title = Does China Want to Be Top Superpower? |website = Abcnews.go.com |date = 2 March 2010 |access-date = 10 February 2012}}{{cite web |url = http://carnegieendowment.org/2006/02/09/from-rural-transformation-to-global-integration-environmental-and-social-impacts-of-china-s-rise-to-superpower/dfi |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20120316154013/http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2006/02/09/from%2Drural%2Dtransformation%2Dto%2Dglobal%2Dintegration%2Denvironmental%2Dand%2Dsocial%2Dimpacts%2Dof%2Dchina%2Ds%2Drise%2Dto%2Dsuperpower/dfi |url-status = dead |archive-date = March 16, 2012 |title = From Rural Transformation to Global Integration: The Environmental and Social Impacts of China's Rise to Superpower – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |date=9 February 2006 |access-date = 10 February 2012 }}{{cite web |url = http://www.getabstract.com/en/summary/global-business/china-the-balance-sheet/6584/?isbn= |title = China: The Balance Sheet Summary |website = getabstract.com |year = 2006 |access-date = 19 July 2014 }}{{cite web |first = Merri B. |last = Uckert |url = http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awc/uckertmb.pdf |title = China As An Economic and Military Superpower: A Dangerous Combination? |date = April 1995 |access-date = 10 February 2012 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20130115145821/http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awc/uckertmb.pdf |archive-date = 15 January 2013 |url-status = dead }} One source argued that "China certainly presents the most promising all-round profile" of a potential superpower, having high economic growth and a large population.{{cite book |last=Buzan |first=Barry |title=The United States and the Great Powers |publisher=Polity Press |year=2004 |isbn=0-7456-3375-7 |location=Cambridge, United Kingdom |page=70}} According to former U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, China represents the "biggest geopolitical test of the 21st century" to the United States, as it is "the only country with enough power to jeopardize the current global order".{{Cite web |date=2021-03-03 |title=China poses "biggest geopolitical test" for the U.S., Blinken says |url=https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-poses-biggest-geopolitical-test-u-s-says-secretary-state-n1259489 |access-date=2024-07-09 |website=NBC News |language=en}}

Great focus has been placed on China's growing economic activity on the global stage, in particular where it has been in competition with the United States. Examples of this have included the establishing and large-scale expansion in countries joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in contrast to traditional western institutions, along with the Belt and Road Initiative and China's role in the worldwide groundings of the Boeing 737 MAX.{{cite magazine|author=Allen-Ebrahimian, Bethany |title=Obama Is Sitting Alone at a Bar Drinking a Consolation Beer|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/04/01/obama-china-bank-aiib-policy/|magazine=Foreign Policy|date=April 1, 2015}}{{cite magazine|author=Aboulafia, Richard |title=Boeing's Crisis Strengthens Beijing's Hand|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/03/20/boeings-crisis-strengthens-beijings-hand-737max-faa-caac-aviation-regulators-trade-war-china-xi-trump/|magazine=Foreign Policy|date=March 20, 2019}} It has also been argued that the future is likely to be of growing competition between two highly dominant countries in the form of the United States and China while others begin to lag behind economically.{{Cite book|author=Tunsjø, Øystein |title=The Return of Bipolarity in World Politics: China, the United States, and Geostructural Realism|url=https://cup.columbia.edu/book/the-return-of-bipolarity-in-world-politics/9780231176545|publisher=Columbia University Press|date=February 27, 2018|isbn=9780231546904}} Predictions have also been made of it overtaking the United States as the world's largest economy in the 2020s.{{cite web|author=Thair Shaikh |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120311061413/http://articles.cnn.com/2011-06-10/world/china.military.superpower_1_superpower-military-spending-military-dominance/2?_s=PM%3AWORLD |url=http://articles.cnn.com/2011-06-10/world/china.military.superpower_1_superpower-military-spending-military-dominance/2?_s=PM:WORLD |title=When Will China Become a Global Superpower? |publisher=CNN |date=10 June 2011 |archive-date=11 March 2012 |access-date=28 June 2014 |url-status=dead }} Due to the country's rapidly developing AI industry, China has also been referred to as an "AI superpower".{{Cite book |last=Lee |first=Kai-Fu |title=AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order |publisher=Houghton Mifflin Harcourt |date=September 25, 2018 |language=English}}{{Cite web |last=Westerheide |first=Fabian |title=China – The First Artificial Intelligence Superpower |url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2020/01/14/china-artificial-intelligence-superpower/ |access-date=2024-07-19 |website=Forbes |language=en}}{{Cite news |last1=Milmo |first1=Dan |last2=editor |first2=Dan Milmo Global technology |date=2021-12-08 |title=TechScape: how China became an AI superpower ready to take on the United States |url=https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/dec/08/techscape-china-ai-united-states |access-date=2024-07-19 |work=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}}

In contrast to this however there have been some who question how long this pace of economic growth could continue, with emphasis placed on China's very large but ageing and shrinking population of over 1.4 billion, and long-term effects of pollution within the country that have accumulated during its fast pace of industrialisation, and also that while it continues to grow it has yet to prove attractive to skilled immigration from outside the country in the same way other countries like the United States have.{{cite news |last=Beardson |first=Timothy |date=June 28, 2013 |title=I don't see China becoming a superpower in this century|work=The Times Of India |url=http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-06-28/news/40234296_1_challenges-facing-china-foreign-companies-china-20-years |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160305034514/http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-06-28/news/40234296_1_challenges-facing-china-foreign-companies-china-20-years |archive-date=March 5, 2016}}{{cite news|author=Timothy Beardson|url=https://www.huffingtonpost.com/timothy-beardson/china-pollution_b_3331929.html|title=Action Needed on the Environment|work=Huffington Post|date=24 May 2013|access-date=26 July 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210226075322/https://www.huffpost.com/entry/china-pollution_b_3331929 |archive-date=February 26, 2021}}{{cite book|author=Susan Shirk|date=2008|title=China: Fragile Superpower|url=https://archive.org/details/chinafragilesupe00shir|url-access=registration|publisher=Oxford University Press|isbn=978-0-19-537319-6}}{{cite book|author=Amy Chua|year=2007|title=Day of Empire: How Hyperpowers Rise to Global Dominance – and Why They Fall|publisher=Random House|isbn=978-0-385-51284-8|url=https://archive.org/details/dayofempirehowhy00chua_0}} A supposed lack of soft power is another aspect of contention to China's status as a potential superpower.{{Cite web |last=Swain |first=Ashok |date=2021-01-21 |title=China's economy and military can overtake US, but it still won't become global superpower |url=https://theprint.in/opinion/chinas-can-overtake-us-but-it-still-wont-become-global-superpower/588718/ |access-date=2024-07-12 |website=ThePrint |language=en-US}}{{Cite web |title=Today's China will never be a superpower |url=https://www.ft.com/content/233b101e-7d51-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560 |access-date=2024-07-12 |website=www.ft.com|date=27 May 2019 }}

There has been significant discussion around the ability for China to project power militarily. There has been argument that its ties with Russia and Central Asia could see the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation become the "NATO of the East".{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/magazine/27world-t.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0|newspaper=The New York Times|last=Khanna|first=Parag|title=Waving Goodbye to Hegemony|date=27 January 2008 |access-date=July 19, 2014}} It has also been argued that American absence from the Indo-Pacific region during the war on terror has allowed Chinese to actively challenge the United States as the pre-eminent power in the region.{{cite report|author=Ashley Townshend, Brendan Thomas-Noone, Matilda Steward|url=https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/averting-crisis-american-strategy-military-spending-and-collective-defence-in-the-indo-pacific|work=United States Studies Centre|title=Averting Crisis: American strategy, military spending and collective defence in the Indo-Pacific|date= 19 August 2019}} Others have argued however that China still remains surrounded by potentially hostile nations and still lacks few friends or allies necessary for it to truly compete with the United States.{{cite magazine|author=Minxin Pei|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/03/20/the-loneliest-superpower/|title=The Loneliest Superpower|magazine=Foreign Policy|date=20 March 2012|access-date=28 June 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210505071234/https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/03/20/the-loneliest-superpower/ |archive-date=May 5, 2021}}

{{See also|Eurosphere|Paneuropean Union}}

The European Union (EU) has been called an emerging superpower or having already achieved that status, primarily to do with its economic power and political influence on the world stage. Factors highlighted have included its large population, the size and global reach of its combined economy, and the comparative unpopularity of US foreign policy.{{cite web|url=http://www.cer.org.uk/in-the-press/europe-new-superpower|title=Europe: the new superpower|publisher=CER|date=18 February 2005|access-date=28 May 2014}}{{cite book|author=John McCormick|title=The European Superpower|isbn=978-1-4039-9846-0|date=14 November 2006|publisher=Macmillan Education UK }}

Despite lacking a cohesive military of its own, with military capabilities still the matter of individual member states, it has been argued that this is irrelevant in the 21st century and accordingly so when considering the status of the EU as a potential superpower.{{cite book|url=https://archive.org/details/europeinnewcentu00robe|url-access=registration|quote=Europe emerging superpower.|title=Europe in the New Century: Visions of an Emerging Superpower|publisher=Lynne Rienner Publishers|year=2001|isbn=9781555878528|access-date=10 February 2012}}{{cite web|author=Trevor Williams|url=http://www.globalatlanta.com/danish-envoy-economic-strength-makes-eu-a-rising-superpower/|title=Danish Envoy: Economic Strength Makes EU a 'Rising Superpower'|work=Globalatlanta|date=29 October 2008|access-date=19 July 2014}} Others however have questioned this interpretation, instead arguing that its lack of a unified military structure compared to the United States undermines the case that the EU is a potential superpower.{{cite web|author=Robert Lane Greene|url=https://www.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/173-sovereign/30500.html|title=EU Constitution: A 'Superpower Europe' It Won't Be|publisher=Globalpolicy.org|date=18 July 2003|access-date=10 February 2012}}Colin S. Gray, "Document No. 1: The Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), 2006, and the Perils of the Twenty-First Century," Comparative Strategy, 25/2, (2006): p 143.

The EU's lack of political integration has also come under conflicting views regarding its effect on superpower status. Some have argued that its more "low profile" diplomacy and emphasis on the rule of law represent a new kind of geopolitical influence that fulfills the political requirements for consideration of being a superpower rather than simply failing to meet them.{{cite web|author=Adrian Hyde-Price|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090326212441/http://www.arena.uio.no/cidel/WorkshopOsloSecurity/Hyde-Price.pdf|archive-date=26 March 2009|date=23 October 2004|url=http://www.arena.uio.no/cidel/WorkshopOsloSecurity/Hyde-Price.pdf|title=The EU, Power and Coercion: From 'Civilian' to 'Civilising' Power|publisher=ARENA Centre for European Studies}} Others however argue that its lack of a centralised foreign or defence policy leaves its effectiveness uncertain when compared to that of a more politically integrated union of states such as the United States,{{cite magazine|url=http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2005/02/10/europe-vs-america/|title=Europe vs. America by Tony Judt|magazine=The New York Review of Books|date=10 February 2005|access-date=10 February 2012}} and it has even been argued that the EU remains as little more than an extension of a Europe reliant or dominated by the United States.Zbigniew Brzezinski, Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power, (New York: Basic Books, 2012), p 22, 126.

The European Union has been called a "regulatory superpower" due to the Brussels effect, which suggests that regulations and standards applicable in the EU will also be adopted by numerous countries outside the EU over time.{{Cite web |last=dmalloy |date=2023-06-15 |title=The world's regulatory superpower is taking on a regulatory nightmare: artificial intelligence |url=https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-worlds-regulatory-superpower-is-taking-on-a-regulatory-nightmare-artificial-intelligence/ |access-date=2023-09-15 |website=Atlantic Council |language=en-US}}{{Cite web |last=kdaponte |date=2023-05-24 |title=Meta fine shows EU is 'regulatory superpower,' Northeastern expert says |url=https://cssh.northeastern.edu/meta-fine-shows-eu-is-regulatory-superpower-northeastern-expert-says/ |access-date=2023-09-15 |website=College of Social Sciences and Humanities |language=en-us}}{{Cite journal |last=Bradford |first=Anu |date=2020-03-01 |title=The Brussels Effect: How the European Union Rules the World |url=https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/books/232 |journal=Faculty Books|doi=10.1093/oso/9780190088583.001.0001 |isbn=978-0-19-008858-3 }}

{{Further|Indian Century|Indosphere}}

The Republic of India has seen considerable coverage of its potential of becoming a superpower economically. Multiple opinions have pointed towards India's rapid economic development as a reason for it to be considered a potential superpower, in particular during the 2010s when it was predicted to outpace China's growth into the future.{{cite news |date=2011-01-09|title=India 2025: What kind of superpower? |first=Michael |last=Dingman |work=The Economic Times |publisher=Bennett, Coleman & Co. Ltd. |url=https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/et-commentary/india-2025-what-kind-of-superpower/articleshow/7238752.cms|access-date=2012-02-10}}{{cite web |url=http://www.rediff.com/money/2006/mar/29minter.htm |title=India will be the biggest superpower |work=Rediff |year=2006 |access-date=19 July 2014}}{{cite journal |last=Subramanian |first=Samanth |title=The Outlier:The inscrutable politics of Subramanian Swamy |url=http://www.caravanmagazine.in/reportage/outlier |journal=The Caravan: A Journal of Politics & Culture |date=1 May 2012 |access-date=29 March 2018}}{{cite magazine |last=Zakaria |first=Fareed |date=March 5, 2006 |title=India Rising |url=http://www.newsweek.com/india-rising-106259 |magazine=Newsweek |access-date=August 2, 2014}} Economists and researchers at Harvard University have projected India's 7% projected annual growth rate through 2024 would continue to put it ahead of China, making India the fastest growing economy in the world.{{cite news |title=New Growth Projections Predict the Rise of India, East Africa and Fall of Oil Economies |url=http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/articles/new-growth-projections |website=Harvard Kennedy School |access-date=12 April 2016 |date=7 May 2015 |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20160508145617/https://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/articles/new-growth-projections |archivedate=2016-05-08}}{{cite news |title=India Will Be Fastest-Growing Economy for Coming Decade, Harvard Researchers Predict |work=The Wall Street Journal |first=Raymond |last=Zhong |url=https://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2016/01/01/india-will-be-fastest-growing-economy-for-coming-decade-harvard-researchers-predict/ |access-date=12 April 2016 |date=1 January 2016}} Over and above, India also has the advantage of having a very large and growing young population with a median age of 28, compared to China's median age of 39.{{Cite web |last1=Silver |first1=Laura |last2=Huang |first2=Christine |last3=Clancy |first3=Laura |title=Key facts as India surpasses China as the world's most populous country |url=https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/02/09/key-facts-as-india-surpasses-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country/ |access-date=2024-02-23 |website=Pew Research Center |date=9 February 2023 |language=en-US}}

While India's economic growth has continued, others have noted that inequality remains high in the country and that its potential for trading appears more limited compared to regional rivals such as China, and that despite India briefly becoming the world's fastest-growing economy in 2015 its growth declined below China's since 2018.{{cite news |last=Khanna |first=Parag |authorlink=Parag Khanna |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/magazine/27world-t.html |title=Waving Goodbye to Hegemony |newspaper=The New York Times |date=2008-01-27 |access-date=2012-02-10}}{{cite web |last=Khanna |first=Parag |authorlink=Parag Khanna |url=http://www.newamerica.net/node/8987 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110629133515/http://www.newamerica.net/node/8987 |archive-date=2011-06-29 |title=The Rise of Non-Americanism |publisher=New America Foundation |date=2008-05-18 |access-date=2012-02-10}}{{Cite journal |last=Pritchett |first=Lant |authorlink=Lant Pritchett |title=A Review of Edward Luce's 'In Spite of the Gods: The Strange Rise of Modern India' |doi=10.1257/jel.47.3.771 |journal=Journal of Economic Literature |volume=47 |issue=3 |pages=771–081 |year=2009}}{{cite news|title=India to beat China again as fastest-growing economy in 2016: IMF |work=The Economic Times |publisher=Bennett, Coleman & Co. Ltd. |url=http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-07-09/news/64243978_1_growth-projection-world-economic-outlook-update-fastest-growing-economy |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150717151633/http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-07-09/news/64243978_1_growth-projection-world-economic-outlook-update-fastest-growing-economy |url-status=dead |archive-date=July 17, 2015 |access-date=20 November 2015 |date=9 July 2015}}{{Cite news|date=2019-05-31|title=India loses place as world's fastest-growing economy |language=en-GB |work=BBC News |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48478028 |access-date=2020-10-18}}

It has also been argued that India's government and bureaucracy is also geared against emerging as a superpower, with it being argued that it "does very little collective thinking about its long-term foreign policy goals, since most of the strategic planning that takes place within the government happens on an individual level".{{cite journal |last=Miller |first=Manjari Chatterjee |date=May–June 2013 |title=India's Feeble Foreign Policy |url=https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/india/2013-04-03/indias-feeble-foreign-policy |journal=Foreign Affairs |volume=92 |issue=3 |pages=14–18 |access-date=27 June 2013 |authorlink=Manjari Miller}}

{{Further|Russia as an energy superpower|History of the Russian Federation}}

Russia, since its imperial times, has been considered both a great power and a regional power. Throughout most of the Soviet-era, the Soviet Union was one of the world's two superpowers. However, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation as its successor state lost its superpower status. In the early 21st century, Russia has been suggested as a potential candidate for resuming superpower status,{{Cite journal |last=Minkina |first=Mirosław |date=2019-09-30 |title=Russia's return to the superpower status |url=https://securityanddefence.pl/Russia-s-return-to-the-superpower-status,110335,0,2.html |journal=Security and Defence Quarterly |volume=26 |issue=4 |pages=34–50 |doi=10.35467/sdq/110335 |issn=2300-8741|hdl=11331/2402 |hdl-access=free }}{{Cite news |last1=Graham-Harrison |first1=Emma |last2=Luhn |first2=Alec |last3=Walker |first3=Shaun |last4=Rice-Oxley |first4=Mark |last5=Sedghi |first5=Amy |date=2015-07-07 |title=China and Russia: the world's new superpower axis? |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/07/china-russia-superpower-axis |access-date=2024-07-12 |work=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}}{{Cite web |title=Q&A: The return of the Russian superpower? |url=https://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/05/07/russia.analysis.chance/index.html |access-date=2024-07-12 |website=edition.cnn.com}} while others have made the assertion that it is already a superpower.{{cite news|title=A Superpower Is Reborn|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/24/opinion/24steel.html?_r=0|newspaper=The New York Times| date=24 August 2008 |access-date=19 November 2015 | last1=Steel | first1=Ronald }} In his 2005 publication entitled Russia in the 21st Century: The Prodigal Superpower, Steven Rosefielde, a professor of economics at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, predicted that Russia would emerge as a superpower before 2010 and augur another arms race. However, Rosefielde noted that such an end would come with tremendous sacrifice to global security and the Russian people's freedom.{{cite book|author=Steven Rosefielde|author-link=Steven Rosefielde|url=http://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/economics/international-economics/russia-21st-century-prodigal-superpower|title=Russia in the 21st Century|publisher=UNC Press|date=February 2005|isbn=978-0-521-54529-7}}{{Page needed|date=December 2023}} Stephen Kinzer of The Boston Globe compared Russia's actions with its own neighbouring territories, to those of "any other superpower", taking Ukraine and Crimea as examples.{{cite news|author=Stephen Kinzer|url=https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2014/05/11/russia-acts-like-any-other-superpower/AJRSNiIUYQPAHRlLXcfIlJ/story.html|title=Russia acts like any other superpower|newspaper=Boston Globe|date=11 May 2014|access-date=7 July 2014}}

Others however have put forward more pessimistic views towards Russia's ability to regain its superpower status. A mixed opinion has been offered by Matthew Fleischer of the Los Angeles Times, contending that severe climate change would be necessary for much of Russia's inherent natural resources to become viable.{{cite news|author=Matthew Fleischer|url=https://www.latimes.com/opinion/opinion-la/la-ol-climate-change-russia-super-power-20140311-story.html|title=How curbing climate change can prevent Russia from becoming a superpower|newspaper=Los Angeles Times|date=12 March 2014|access-date=7 July 2014}}

Several analysts commented on the fact that Russia showed signs of an aging and shrinking population. Fred Weir said that this severely constricts and limits Russia's potential to re-emerge as a central world power.{{cite news|author=Fred Weir|url=http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/europe/russia/111102/russia-population-superpower-health-soviet-union|title=Despite huge cash bonuses to mothers, Russia's population is shrinking|work=GlobalPost|date=3 November 2011|access-date=8 July 2014}} In 2011, British historian and professor Niall Ferguson also highlighted the negative effects of Russia's declining population, and suggested that Russia is on its way to "global irrelevance".{{cite magazine|author=Niall Ferguson|url=http://www.newsweek.com/decline-putins-russia-its-way-global-irrelevance-65847|title=In Decline, Putin's Russia Is On Its Way to Global Irrelevance|magazine=Newsweek|date=12 December 2011|access-date=2 August 2014}} Russia has, however, shown a slight population growth since the late 2000s, partly due to immigration, quickly rising birth rates, slowly declining death rates.{{cite magazine|author=Mark Adomanis|url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2013/05/11/russias-population-isnt-shrinking-its-growing-very-very-slowly/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130609004205/http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2013/05/11/russias-population-isnt-shrinking-its-growing-very-very-slowly/|url-status=dead|archive-date=June 9, 2013|title=Russia's Population Isn't Shrinking (It's Growing Very, Very Slowly)|magazine=Forbes|date=11 May 2013|access-date=8 July 2014}}

Russia's ability to project hard power was also questioned following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with the Russian military's poor performance prompting economist Paul Krugman to suggest Russia was little more than a "Potemkin Superpower".{{cite journal|author=Paul Krugman|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/opinion/putin-military-sanctions-weakness.html|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220301041314/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/opinion/putin-military-sanctions-weakness.html|url-status=live|archive-date=1 March 2022|title=Russia Is a Potemkin Superpower|journal=New York Times|date=28 February 2022|access-date=1 March 2022}}

In the 1980s, some political and economic analysts predicted that Japan would eventually accede to superpower status, due to its large population, growing economic, military, industrial, technological and cultural influence, large gross domestic product, and high economic growth at that time.{{Citation |last=Smith |first=Dennis B. |title=The Emergence of the Economic Superpower: 1980 to the Present |date=1995 |work=Japan since 1945: The Rise of an Economic Superpower |pages=138–169 |editor-last=Smith |editor-first=Dennis B. |url=https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-24126-2_6 |access-date=2024-07-10 |place=London |publisher=Macmillan Education UK |language=en |doi=10.1007/978-1-349-24126-2_6 |isbn=978-1-349-24126-2}}{{Cite web |last=Kreisberg |first=Paul |date=1988-12-11 |title=Japan: A Superpower Minus Military Power |url=https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1988-12-11-op-67-story.html |access-date=2024-07-10 |website=Los Angeles Times |language=en-US}} Japan's economy was expected to eventually surpass that of the United States.{{cite book |last=Zakaria |first=Fareed |author-link=Fareed Zakaria |url=https://archive.org/details/postamericanworl00zaka_199 |title=The Post-American World |date=2008 |publisher=W. W. Norton and Company |isbn=978-0-393-06235-9 |page=[https://archive.org/details/postamericanworl00zaka_199/page/n225 210] |url-access=limited}}{{Cite news |date=November 12, 2009 |title=Land of the setting sun |url=https://www.economist.com/business/2009/11/12/land-of-the-setting-sun |newspaper=The Economist}}{{cite magazine |date=July 4, 1988 |title=Japan From Superrich To Superpower |url=http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,967823,00.html |magazine=Time}} However, this prediction failed to materialise following a stock market crash and the resulting "Lost Decades", where Japan has suffered a flat to negative economic outlook,{{cite news |author=Leika Kihara |date=17 August 2012 |title=Japan eyes end to decades long deflation |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-economy-estimate-idUSL4E8JH1TC20120817#ySOkSfW3bZs8lVWK.97 |access-date=7 September 2012 |work=Reuters}} while its population has been aging since the late 1980s before suffering real decline in total population starting in 2011.{{Cite news |date=2023-01-20 |title=Japan was the future but it's stuck in the past |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63830490 |access-date=2024-07-10 |language=en-GB}}

{{colbegin}}

• American Century
• ASEAN
• Asian Century
• BRIC (economics term)
• BRICS
• Emerging power
• Energy superpower
• Eurasian Economic Union
• Great power
• List of countries in Europe by military expenditures
• Mercosur
• Post–Cold War era
• Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
• Second Cold War
• South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
• Superpower collapse

{{colend}}

{{reflist|30em}}

• [http://www.crp.polis.cam.ac.uk/ Centre for Rising Powers, University of Cambridge]
• [https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/552652 China on the World Stage] from the [https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/552494 Dean Peter Krogh Foreign Affairs Digital Archives]
• [https://www.thetimes.com/tto/news/world/asia/article3913602.ece Blast off: India hopes Mars rocket will enhance its superpower status] by The Times
• [https://hbr.org/2007/12/china-india-the-power-of-two/ar/1 China and India: The Power of Two] by Harvard Business Review
• [https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/04/the-end-of-pax-americana-how-western-decline-became-inevitable/256388/?single_page=true The End of Pax Americana: How Western Decline Became Inevitable] by The Atlantic
• [https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/11/24/why-the-u-s-remains-the-worlds-unchallenged-superpower/ Why The U.S. Remains The World's Unchallenged Superpower]

{{International power}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Potential Superpowers}}

Category:Emerging power

Category:21st century

Pot

Category:Military terminology