Total fertility rate#Japan

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is not based on the actual fertility of a specific group of women, as that would require waiting until they have completed childbearing. It also does not involve counting the total number of children born over their lifetime. Instead, the TFR is based on the age-specific fertility rates of women in their "child-bearing years," typically considered to be ages 15–44 in international statistical usage.

The TFR is a measure of the fertility of an imaginary woman who experiences the age-specific fertility rates for ages 15–49 that were recorded for a specific population in a given year. It represents the average number of children a woman would potentially have if she were to go through all her childbearing years in a single year, subject to the age-specific fertility rates for that year. In simpler terms, the TFR is the number of children a woman would have if she were to experience the prevailing fertility rates at all ages from a single given year and survived throughout her childbearing years.

File:Total Fertility Rate for Select Countries, 2010.png

An alternative measure of fertility is the net reproduction rate (NRR), which calculates the number of daughters a female would have in her lifetime if she were subject to prevailing age-specific fertility and mortality rates in a given year. When the NRR is exactly 1, each generation of females is precisely replacing itself.

The NRR is not as commonly used as the TFR, but it is particularly relevant in cases where the number of male babies born is very high due to gender imbalance and sex selection. This is a significant consideration in world population dynamics, especially given the high level of gender imbalance in the heavily populated nations of China and India. The gross reproduction rate (GRR) is the same as the NRR, except that, like the TFR, it disregards life expectancy.{{citation needed|date=May 2024}}

The TFR, sometimes called TPFR—total period fertility rate, is a better index of fertility than the crude birth rate (annual number of births per thousand population) because it is independent of the age structure of the population, but it is a poorer estimate of actual completed family size than the total cohort fertility rate, which is obtained by summing the age-specific fertility rates that actually applied to each cohort as they aged through time.

In particular, the TFR does not necessarily predict how many children young women now will eventually have, as their fertility rates in years to come may change from those of older women now. However, the TFR is a reasonable summary of current fertility levels. TFR and long term population growth rate, g, are closely related. For a population structure in a steady state, growth rate equals $\backslash log(\backslash mathrm\{TFR\}/2)/X\_m$, where $X\_m$ is the mean age for childbearing women.{{Citation needed|date=March 2022}}

{{further|Sub-replacement fertility#Tempo effect}}

The TPFR (total period fertility rate) is affected by a tempo effect—if age of childbearing increases, and life cycle fertility is unchanged, then while the age of childbearing is increasing, TPFR will be lower, because the births are occurring later, and then the age of childbearing stops increasing, the TPFR will increase, due to the deferred births occurring in the later period, even though the life cycle fertility has been unchanged. In other words, the TPFR is a misleading measure of life cycle fertility when childbearing age is changing, due to this statistical artifact. This is a significant factor in some countries, such as the Czech Republic and Spain in the 1990s. Some measures seek to adjust for this timing effect to gain a better measure of life-cycle fertility.{{citation needed|date=May 2024}}

{{Further|Sub-replacement fertility}}

Replacement fertility is the total fertility rate at which women give birth to enough babies to sustain population levels, assuming that mortality rates remain constant and net migration is zero. If replacement level fertility is sustained over a sufficiently long period, each generation will exactly replace itself.{{Cite journal|last=Craig|first=J|date=1994|title=Replacement level fertility and future population growth|url=https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7834459/|journal=Population Trends|issue=78|pages=20–22|pmid=7834459|access-date=2022-01-25|archive-date=2022-04-12|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220412012659/http://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7834459/|url-status=live}} In 2003, the replacement fertility rate was 2.1 births per female for most developed countries (2.1 in the UK, for example), but could be as high as 3.5 in undeveloped countries because of higher mortality rates, especially child mortality.{{cite journal|title=The surprising global variation in replacement fertility|vauthors=Espenshade TJ, Guzman JC, Westoff CF|year=2003|journal=Population Research and Policy Review|doi=10.1023/B:POPU.0000020882.29684.8e|volume=22|page=575|issue=5/6|s2cid=10798893|url=https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/B:POPU.0000020882.29684.8e|access-date=2023-05-31|archive-date=2023-05-31|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230531173745/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/B:POPU.0000020882.29684.8e|url-status=live}} The global average for the replacement total fertility rate, eventually leading to a stable global population, for 2010–2015, was 2.3 children per female.{{Cite journal |last1=Gietel-Basten |first1=Stuart |last2=Scherbov |first2=Sergei |date=December 2, 2019 |title=Is half the world's population really below 'replacement-rate'? |journal=PLOS ONE |volume=14 |issue=12 |pages=e0224985 |bibcode=2019PLoSO..1424985G |doi=10.1371/journal.pone.0224985 |pmc=6886770 |pmid=31790416 |doi-access=free}}

The term lowest-low fertility is defined as a TFR at or below 1.3.{{cite web|last1=Kohler|first1=Hans-Peter|last2=Billari|first2=Francesco C.|last3=Ortega|first3=José Antonio|date=February 15, 2006|title=Low Fertility in Europe: Causes, Implications and Policy Options|url=http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~hpkohler/papers/Low-fertility-in-Europe-final.pdf|access-date=2020-01-27|website=University of Pennsylvania - School of Arts & Sciences|archive-date=2017-11-19|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171119092721/http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~hpkohler/papers/Low-fertility-in-Europe-final.pdf|url-status=live}} Lowest-low fertility is found almost exclusively within East Asian countries and Southern European countries. The East Asian American community in the United States also exhibits lowest-low fertility.{{cite journal |last1=Cai |first1=Yong |last2=Morgan |first2=S. Philip |title=Persistent low fertility among the East Asia descendants in the United States: perspectives and implications |journal=China Population and Development Studies |date=1 June 2019 |volume=2 |issue=4 |pages=384–400 |doi=10.1007/s42379-019-00024-7 |s2cid=135233463 |language=en |issn=2523-8965 |doi-access=free }} "The Behavior of U.S. minority CJK groups have another logical referent—the behavior of Chinese, Japanese and Korean national populations (shown in Fig. 1). What can we learn about low fertility in the origin countries from those that trace their origin there? Or in other words, what can the East Asian diaspora tell us about lowest-low fertility in East Asia? The most common explanation for fertility differences across developed countries (like those shown in Fig. 1) are institutional differences (see for instance, McDonald 2000a, b). However, it is striking that East Asians who have moved to a new location—to the U.S. with its dramatically different social institutions and one of the highest fertility rates in the developed world—have a fertility pattern that seems impervious to this dramatic contextual change. This simple observation challenges much contemporary thinking about policies to ameliorate low fertility and its negative consequences." At one point in the late 20th century and early 21st century this was also observed in Eastern and Southern Europe. Since then, the fertility rate has risen in most countries of Europe.{{Cite web |url=https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/SEPDF/cache/1273.pdf |title=Fertility statistics |access-date=2023-02-02 |archive-date=2023-02-02 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230202163940/https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/SEPDF/cache/1273.pdf |url-status=live }} However, in 2023, Spain's TFR fell to 1.19,https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spanish-birth-rate-hits-lowest-level-since-records-began-1941-2024-02-21/ and Italy's TFR fell to 1.2 children per woman.{{cite web | url=https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/05/10/italys-falling-birth-rate-is-a-crisis-thats-only-getting-worse | title=Italy's falling birth rate is a crisis that's only getting worse | date=10 May 2024 }}

The lowest TFR recorded anywhere in the world in recorded history, is for the Xiangyang district of Jiamusi city (Heilongjiang, China) which had a TFR of 0.41 in 2000.{{Cite thesis |last=Terrell |first=Heather Kathleen Mary |date=May 2005 |title=Fertility In China In 2000: A County Level Analysis |type=MS thesis |publisher=Texas A&M University |url=https://oaktrust.library.tamu.edu/handle/1969.1/3892 |access-date=14 December 2022 |hdl=1969.1/3892 |page=52 |archive-date=14 December 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221214155317/https://oaktrust.library.tamu.edu/handle/1969.1/3892 |url-status=live }} In 2023, South Korea's TFR was 0.72 the world's lowest for that year.https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-koreas-fertility-rate-dropped-fresh-record-low-2023-2024-02-28/

Outside Asia, the lowest TFR ever recorded was 0.80 for Eastern Germany in 1994. The low Eastern German value was influenced by a change to higher maternal age at birth, with the consequence that neither older cohorts (e.g. women born until the late 1960s), who often already had children, nor younger cohorts, who were postponing childbirth, had many children during that time. The total cohort fertility rate of each age cohort of women in East Germany did not drop as significantly.{{Cite web|last1=Goldstein|first1=Joshua R.|last2=Kreyenfeld|first2=Michaela|date=July 2011|title=East Germany Overtakes West Germany: Recent Trends in Order-Specific Fertility Dynamics|url=https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-033.pdf|website=Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research|access-date=2021-12-08|archive-date=2022-01-20|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220120183734/http://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-033.pdf|url-status=live}}

File:TFR vs population growth rate.png

A population that maintained a TFR of 3.8 over an extended period, without a correspondingly high death or emigration rate, would increase rapidly, doubling period ≈32 years. A population that maintained a TFR of 2.0 over a long time would decrease, unless it had a large enough immigration.

It may take several generations for a change in the total fertility rate to be reflected in birth rate, because the age distribution must reach equilibrium. For example, a population that has recently dropped below replacement-level fertility will continue to grow, because the recent high fertility produced large numbers of young couples, who would now be in their childbearing years.{{citation needed|date=May 2024}}

This phenomenon carries forward for several generations and is called population momentum, population inertia, or population-lag effect. This time-lag effect is of great importance to the growth rates of human populations.{{citation needed|date=May 2024}}

TFR (net) and long-term population growth rate, g, are closely related. For a population structure in a steady state and with zero migration, $g=\backslash tfrac\{\backslash log(\backslash text\{TFR\}/2)\}\{\backslash text\{X\}\_\{m\}\}$, where $\backslash text\{X\}\_m$ is mean age for childbearing women and thus $P(t)\; =\; P(0)^\{(gt)\}$. At the left side is shown the empirical relation between the two variables in a cross-section of countries with the most recent y-y growth rate.

The parameter $\backslash tfrac\{1\}\{b\}$ should be an estimate of the $\backslash text\{X\}\_m$; here equal to $\backslash tfrac\{1\}\{0.02\}=50$ years, way off the mark because of population momentum. E.g. for $\{\backslash log\}(\backslash tfrac\{\backslash text\{TFR\}\}\{2\})\; =\; 0$, g should be exactly zero, which is seen not to be the case.{{Citation needed|date=December 2021}}

{{Main|Fertility factor (demography)}}

{{Further|Sub-replacement fertility}}

File:TFR HDI.PNG for selected countries, 2011]]

File:Niameybapteme2.jpg has the highest TFR in the world at 6.73, in 2023.]]

Fertility factors are determinants of the number of children that an individual is likely to have. Fertility factors are mostly positive or negative correlations without certain causations.{{citation needed|date=May 2024}}

Factors generally associated with increased fertility include the intention to have children, very high level of gender inequality, inter-generational transmission of values, marriage and cohabitation, maternal and social support, rural residence, pro family government programs, low IQ and increased food production.{{citation needed|date=May 2024}}

Factors generally associated with decreased fertility include rising income, value and attitude changes, education, female labor participation, population control, age, contraception, partner reluctance to having children, a low level of gender inequality, and infertility. The effect of all these factors can be summarized with a plot of total fertility rate against Human Development Index (HDI) for a sample of countries. The chart shows that the two factors are inversely correlated, that is, in general, the lower a country's HDI the higher its fertility.{{citation needed|date=May 2024}}

Another common way of summarizing the relationship between economic development and fertility is a plot of TFR against per capita GDP, a proxy for standard of living. This chart shows that per capita GDP is also inversely correlated with fertility.{{citation needed|date=May 2024}}

The impact of human development on TFR can best be summarized by a quote from Karan Singh, a former minister of population in India. At a 1974 United Nations population conference in Bucharest, he said "Development is the best contraceptive."{{Cite book|last=Weil|first=David N.|title=Economic Growth|publisher=Addison-Wesley|year=2004|isbn=978-0-201-68026-3|page=111}}

[[File:CIA WFB TotFertilityRate-GDP-Population - Simplified 2016.png|thumb|Total fertility rate vs per capita GDP for selected countries, 2016. Population size shown as bubble area. 30 largest countries in bold.

{{cite web|url=https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2119rank.html|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070613004507/https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2119rank.html|url-status=dead|archive-date=June 13, 2007|title=Country Comparison :: Population size|website=The World Factbook|publisher=Central Intelligence Agency|access-date=2017-05-30}}{{cite web|title=China's Generation of Only Children Wants the Same for Their Kids|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/04/china-one-child-policy-fertility-rates/|access-date=January 28, 2022|website=Foreign Policy|archive-date=January 28, 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220128155250/https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/04/china-one-child-policy-fertility-rates/|url-status=live}}

{{cite web|url=https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2004rank.html|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070613004710/https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2004rank.html|url-status=dead|archive-date=June 13, 2007|title=Country Comparison :: GDP - per capita (PPP)|website=The World Factbook|publisher=Central Intelligence Agency|access-date=2017-05-30}}

|220x220px]]

Wealthy countries, those with high per capita GDP, usually have a lower fertility rate than poor countries, those with low per capita GDP. This may seem counter-intuitive. The inverse relationship between income and fertility has been termed a demographic-economic paradox because evolutionary biology suggests that greater means should enable the production of more offspring, not fewer.{{citation needed|date=May 2024}}

Many of these factors may differ by region and social class. For instance, Scandinavian countries and France are among the least religious in the EU, but have the highest TFR, while the opposite is true about Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, Poland and Spain.

Governments have often set population targets, to either increase or decrease the total fertility rate, or to have certain ethnic or socioeconomic groups have a lower or higher fertility rate. Often such policies have been interventionist, and abusive. The most notorious natalist policies of the 20th century include those in communist Romania and communist Albania, under Nicolae Ceaușescu and Enver Hoxha respectively.

The natalist policy in Romania between 1967 and 1989 was very aggressive, including outlawing abortion and contraception, routine pregnancy tests for women, taxes on childlessness, and legal discrimination against childless people. It resulted in large numbers of children put into Romanian orphanages by parents who could not cope with raising them, street children in the 1990s, when many orphanages were closed and the children ended up on the streets, overcrowding in homes and schools, and over 9,000 women who died due to illegal abortions.Kligman, Gail. "Political Demography: The Banning of Abortion in Ceausescu's Romania". In Ginsburg, Faye D.; Rapp, Rayna, eds. Conceiving the New World Order: The Global Politics of Reproduction. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1995 :234–255. Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE KIE/49442.

Conversely, in China the government sought to lower the fertility rate, and, as such, enacted the one-child policy (1978–2015), which included abuses such as forced abortions.{{cite news|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-18435126|title=Shock at Chinese abortion photo|date=14 June 2012|work=BBC News|access-date=22 June 2018|archive-date=18 April 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190418005422/https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-18435126|url-status=live}} In India, during the national emergency of 1975, a massive compulsory sterilization drive was carried out in India, but it is considered to be a failure and is criticized for being an abuse of power.{{According to whom|date=July 2023}}

Some governments have sought to regulate which groups of society could reproduce through eugenic policies, including forced sterilizations of population groups they considered undesirable. Such policies were carried out against ethnic minorities in Europe and North America in the first half of the 20th century, and more recently in Latin America against the Indigenous population in the 1990s; in Peru, former President Alberto Fujimori has been accused of genocide and crimes against humanity as a result of a sterilization program put in place by his administration targeting indigenous people (mainly the Quechua and Aymara people).{{cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/2148793.stm|title=Mass sterilisation scandal shocks Peru|date=24 July 2002|via=news.bbc.co.uk|access-date=22 October 2016|archive-date=21 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190521121426/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/2148793.stm|url-status=live}}

Within these historical contexts, the notion of reproductive rights has developed. Such rights are based on the concept that each person freely decides if, when, and how many children to have - not the state or religion. According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, reproductive rights "rest on the recognition of the basic rights of all couples and individuals to decide freely and responsibly the number, spacing and timing of their children and to have the information and means to do so, and the right to attain the highest standard of sexual and reproductive health. It also includes the right to make decisions concerning reproduction free of discrimination, coercion and violence, as expressed in human rights documents".{{cite web |url=http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Publications/NHRIHandbook.pdf |title=Handbook |publisher=www.ohchr.org |access-date=2020-01-27 |archive-date=2020-03-11 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200311143034/https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Publications/NHRIHandbook.pdf |url-status=live }}

From around 10,000 BC to the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, fertility rates around the world were high by 21st-century standards, ranging from 4.5 to 7.5 children per woman.^76-77,.{{Cite journal |last=Roser |first=Max |date=March 2024 |title=Fertility Rate |url=https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#:~:text=In%20the%20pre%2Dmodern%20era,typically%20seen%20accelerated%20population%20growth |journal=Our World in Data}} The onset of the Industrial Revolution around the year 1800 brought about what has come to be called the demographic transition. This eventually led to a long-term decline in TFR in every region of the world that has continued in the 21st century.

During this period fertility rates of 4.5 to 7.5 were common around the world.{{Cite book |last=Clark |first=Gregory |title=A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World |publisher=Princeton University Press |year=2007}} ^76-77 Child mortality could reach 50%{{Cite journal |last=Roser |first=Max |date=2023 |title=Mortality in the past: every second child died |url=https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality-in-the-past |journal=Our World in Data}} and that plus the need to produce workers, male heirs, and old-age caregivers required a high fertility rate by 21st-century standards. To produce two adult children in this high mortality environment required at least four or more births. For example, fertility rates in Western Europe before 1800 ranged from 4.5 in Scandinavia to 6.2 in Belgium.{{Rp|page=76}} In 1800, the TFR in the United States was 7.0.{{Cite web|last=Haines|first=Michael|title=Fertility and Mortality in the United States|url=https://eh.net/encyclopedia/fertility-and-mortality-in-the-united-states/|website=EH.Net Encyclopedia of Economic and Business History|access-date=2022-02-25|archive-date=2022-04-07|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220407015859/https://eh.net/encyclopedia/fertility-and-mortality-in-the-united-states/|url-status=live}} Fertility rates in East Asia during this period were similar to those in Europe.{{Rp|page=74}} Fertility rates in Roman Egypt were 7.4.^{, p77}

Despite these high fertility rates, the number of surviving children per woman was always around two because of high mortality rates. As a result, global population growth was still very slow, about 0.04% per year.{{Cite journal |last=Roser |first=Max |date=Nov 6, 2020 |title=Breaking out of the Malthusian trap: How pandemics allow us to understand why our ancestors were stuck in poverty |url=https://ourworldindata.org/breaking-the-malthusian-trap |journal=Our World in Data}}

After 1800, the Industrial Revolution began in some places, particularly Great Britain, continental Europe, and the United States, and they underwent the beginnings of what is now called the demographic transition. Stage two of this process fueled a steady reduction in mortality rates due to improvements in public sanitation, personal hygiene and the food supply, which reduced the number of famines.

These reductions in mortality rates, particularly reductions in child mortality, that increased the fraction of children surviving, plus other major societal changes such as urbanization, and the increased social status of women, led to stage three of the demographic transition.{{Cite web |last=Montgomery |first=Keith |title=The Demographic Transition |url=http://pages.uwc.edu/keith.montgomery/demotrans/demtran.htm |website=WayBackMachine|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190605095831/http://pages.uwc.edu/keith.montgomery/demotrans/demtran.htm |archive-date=5 June 2019 }} There was a reduction in fertility rates, because there was simply no longer a need to birth so many children.{{Rp|page=294}}

The example from the US of the correlation between child mortality and the fertility rate is illustrative. In 1800, child mortality in the US was 33%, meaning that one third of all children born would die before their fifth birthday. The TFR in 1800 was 7.0, meaning that the average female would bear seven children during their lifetime. In 1900, child mortality in the US had declined to 23%, a reduction of almost one third, and the TFR had declined to 3.9, a reduction of 44%. By 1950, child mortality had declined dramatically to 4%, a reduction of 84%, and the TFR declined to 3.2. By 2018, child mortality had declined further to 0.6% and the TFR declined to 1.9, below replacement level.{{Cite web |title=Bubble Chart of 'Babies per Woman' vs 'Child Mortality' |url=https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$chart-type=bubbles&url=v1 |publisher=Gapminder |access-date=2022-02-25 |archive-date=2016-03-04 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304021800/https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$chart-type=bubbles&url=v1 |url-status=live }}

The chart shows that the decline in the TFR since the 1960s has occurred in every region of the world. The global TFR is projected to continue declining for the remainder of the century, and reach a below-replacement level of 1.8 by 2100.{{Cite web |date=2022 |title=World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Estimates tab, Total Fertility Rate column |url=https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/MostUsed/ |website=United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division}}{{Cite web |date=2022 |title=World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Variant tab, Total Fertility Rate column |url=https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/MostUsed/ |website=United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.}}

In 2022, the global TFR was 2.3.{{Cite web |title=Fertility rate, total (births per woman) |url=https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191129050550/https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN |archive-date=2019-11-29 |access-date=2022-02-25 |publisher=The World Bank}} Because the global fertility replacement rate for 2010–2015 was estimated to be 2.3, humanity has achieved or is approaching a significant milestone where the global fertility rate is equal to the global replacement rate.

The global fertility rate may have fallen below the global replacement level of 2.2 children per woman as early as 2023. Numerous developing countries have experienced an accelerated fertility decline in the 2010s and early 2020s.{{Cite web |title=Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed. |url=https://www.wsj.com/world/birthrates-global-decline-cause-ddaf8be2 |website=Wall Street Journal|date=13 May 2024 }} The average fertility rate in countries such as Thailand{{Cite web |title=Thailand is one of the world's fastest-ageing developing nations. This is how it happened |url=https://www.channelnewsasia.com/cna-insider/thailand-fast-ageing-population-declining-birth-rate-children-expensive-4406151 |access-date=2024-10-11 |website=CNA |language=en}} or Chile{{Cite web |date=2024-09-18 |title=Chile birth rate plummets as women say no to motherhood |url=https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240918-chile-birth-rate-plummets-as-women-say-no-to-motherhood |access-date=2024-10-11 |website=France 24 |language=en}} approached the mark of one child per woman, which triggered concerns about the rapid aging of populations worldwide.

File:Total Fertility Rate for 6 Regions and the World, 1950-2100, UN2022.svg

The table{{Cite web|date=2019|title=World Population Prospects 2019, Dept of Economic and Social Affairs, File: Total Fertility|url=https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Fertility/|publisher=United Nations Population Division|access-date=2021-12-08|archive-date=2018-10-22|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181022094839/https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Fertility/|url-status=live}} shows that after 1965, the demographic transition spread around the world, and the global TFR began a long decline that continues in the 21st century.

{{Main|List of countries by total fertility rate}}

File:Fertility rate in OECD.svg countries, 2023]]

The United Nations Population Division divides the world into six geographical regions. The table below shows the estimated TFR for each region.

In 2013, the TFR of Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Northern America were below the global replacement-level fertility rate of 2.1 children per female.{{Cite report |url=https://www.wri.org/research/achieving-replacement-level-fertility|title=Achieving Replacement Level Fertility |first1=Tim|last1=Searchinger |first2=Craig|last2=Hanson |first3=Richard|last3=Waite |first4=Brian|last4=Lipinski |first5=George|last5=Leeson |date=8 July 2013 |access-date=13 March 2023 |via=www.wri.org |archive-date=13 March 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230313191030/https://www.wri.org/research/achieving-replacement-level-fertility |url-status=live}}

File:Fertility Map.png

Africa has a TFR of 4.1, the highest in the world. Angola, Benin, DR Congo, Mali, and the Niger have the highest TFR.{{Cite web |title=Country Comparisons - Total Fertility Rate |url=https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/total-fertility-rate/country-comparison |website=CIA The World Factbook |access-date=2022-02-26 |archive-date=2021-06-30 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210630075319/https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/total-fertility-rate/country-comparison |url-status=live }} In 2023, the most populous country in Africa, Nigeria, had an estimated TFR of 4.57. In 2023, the second most populous African country, Ethiopia, had an estimated TFR of 3.92.

The poverty of Africa, and the high maternal mortality and infant mortality had led to calls from WHO for family planning, and the encouragement of smaller families.{{cite web|url=https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/89/2/10-077925/en/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131006014657/http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/89/2/10-077925/en/|url-status=dead|archive-date=October 6, 2013|title=WHO - Family planning in sub-Saharan Africa: progress or stagnation?|website=www.who.int}}

File:Map of East Asia by TFR in 2021.png

Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan have the lowest-low fertility, defined as TFR at or below 1.3, and are among the lowest in the world. In 2004, Macau had a TFR below 1.0.{{Cite web |title=Fertility rate, Macau SAR, China |url=https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=MO |website=The World Bank |access-date=2022-02-26 |archive-date=2022-04-12 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220412010021/https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=MO |url-status=live }} In 2018, North Korea had the highest TFR in East Asia, at 1.95.

{{Further|Aging of China}}

In 2022, China's TFR was 1.09.{{cite web |title=China's fertility rate drops to record low 1.09 in 2022- state media Reuters |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-fertility-rate-drops-record-low-109-2022-state-media-2023-08-15/ |website=www.reuters.com |access-date=1 January 2024 |date=15 August 2023}} China implemented the one-child policy in January 1979 as a drastic population planning measure to control the ever-growing population at the time. In January 2016, the policy was replaced with the two-child policy. In July 2021, a three-child policy was introduced, as China's population is aging faster than almost any other country in modern history.{{cite web|url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/02/21/chinas-aging-population-becoming-more-of-a-problem/|title=China's Aging Population Becoming More Of A Problem|last=Rapoza|first=Kenneth|date=February 21, 2017|website=Forbes|language=en|access-date=2019-05-10|archive-date=2019-12-10|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191210171645/https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/02/21/chinas-aging-population-becoming-more-of-a-problem/|url-status=live}}

{{Further|Aging of Japan}}

In 2022, Japan had a TFR of 1.26.{{cite web |title=Tokyo's fertility rate lowest in Japan as births fall for 7th year {{!}} The Asahi Shimbun: Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis |url=https://www.asahi.com/sp/ajw/articles/15069980 |website=The Asahi Shimbun |access-date=1 January 2024 |language=en}} Japan's population is rapidly aging due to both a long life expectancy and a low birth rate. The total population is shrinking, losing 430,000 in 2018, to a total of 126.4 million.{{cite news|url=https://www.ft.com/content/29d594fa-5cf2-11e9-9dde-7aedca0a081a |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20221210/https://www.ft.com/content/29d594fa-5cf2-11e9-9dde-7aedca0a081a |archive-date=2022-12-10 |url-access=subscription |url-status=live |title=Info |newspaper=Financial Times |date=12 April 2019 |publisher=www.ft.com |access-date=2020-01-27|last1=Harding |first1=Robin }} Hong Kong and Singapore mitigate this through immigrant workers. In Japan, a serious demographic imbalance has developed, partly due to limited immigration to Japan.{{citation needed|date=May 2024}}

{{Further|Aging of South Korea}}

In South Korea, a low birthrate is one of its most urgent socio-economic challenges.{{Cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/30/world/asia/south-korea-fertility-birth-map.html|title=South Korea's Plan to Rank Towns by Fertility Rate Backfires|last=Sang-Hun|first=Choe|date=2016-12-30|work=The New York Times|access-date=2019-08-15|language=en-US|issn=0362-4331|archive-date=2019-05-03|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190503020347/https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/30/world/asia/south-korea-fertility-birth-map.html|url-status=live}} Rising housing expenses, shrinking job opportunities for younger generations, insufficient support to families with newborns either from the government or employers are among the major explanations for its crawling TFR, which fell to 0.92 in 2019.{{cite web |last1=Kwon |first1=Jake |last2=Yeung |first2=Jessie |date=2019-08-29 |title=South Korea's fertility rate falls to record low - CNN |url=https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/29/asia/south-korea-fertility-intl-hnk-trnd/index.html |access-date=2020-01-27 |publisher=Edition.cnn.com |archive-date=2019-12-28 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191228105434/https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/29/asia/south-korea-fertility-intl-hnk-trnd/index.html |url-status=live }} Koreans are yet to find viable solutions to make the birthrate rebound, even after trying out dozens of programs over a decade, including subsidizing rearing expenses, giving priorities for public rental housing to couples with multiple children, funding day care centers, reserving seats in public transportation for pregnant women, and so on.

In the past 20 years, South Korea has recorded some of the lowest fertility and marriage levels in the world. As of 2022, South Korea is the country with the world's lowest{{cite news

|title=S. Korea records world's lowest fertility rate at mere 0.78

|url=https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/1080955.html

|author=Lee Ji-hye

|publisher=Hankyoreh

|date=February 23, 2023

|access-date=September 7, 2023

}}

total fertility rate, at 0.78. In 2022, the TFR of the capital Seoul was 0.57.{{cite press release |author= |title=2022년 출생 통계 |url=https://kostat.go.kr/board.es?mid=a10301010000&bid=204&tag=&act=view&list_no=426806&ref_bid= |location= |publisher=Korean Statistical Information Service |agency=Korean Statistical Information Service |date=August 30, 2023 |access-date=September 7, 2023}}

The fertility rate fell from 6.8 in 1970–1975, to 2.0 in 2020, an interval of about 47 years, or a little less than two generations.{{Cite news |url=https://www.newagebd.net/article/109937/fertility-rate-in-bangladesh-20-life-expectancy-73yrs|title=Fertility rate in Bangladesh 2.0, life expectancy 73yrs |work=New Age |access-date=13 March 2023|archive-date=7 April 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220407015859/https://www.newagebd.net/article/109937/fertility-rate-in-bangladesh-20-life-expectancy-73yrs|url-status=live}}{{Cite web |date=May 6, 2019 |title=How Long Is A Generation? |url=https://yourdna.com/how-long-is-a-generation/ |website=YOURDNA |access-date=February 26, 2022 |archive-date=April 7, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220407015858/https://yourdna.com/how-long-is-a-generation/ |url-status=dead }}

The Indian fertility rate has declined significantly over the early 21st century. The Indian TFR declined from 5.2 in 1971 to 2.2 in 2018.{{Cite news|url = https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/better-education-of-women-helped-push-total-fertility-rate-down/articleshow/76720789.cms|title = Better education of women helped push total fertility rate down | India News - Times of India|website = The Times of India|date = July 2020|access-date = 2020-07-13|archive-date = 2022-04-07|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20220407021357/https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/better-education-of-women-helped-push-total-fertility-rate-down/articleshow/76720789.cms|url-status = live}} The TFR in India declined to 2.0 in 2019–2020, marking the first time it has gone below replacement level.{{Cite web|url = https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/national-family-and-health-survey-more-women-than-men-in-india-for-the-first-time-101637779104256.html|title = National Family and Health Survey: More women than men in India for the 1st time; Hindustan Times Nov 25, 2021|date = 25 November 2021|access-date = 25 November 2021|archive-date = 30 April 2022|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20220430195612/https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/national-family-and-health-survey-more-women-than-men-in-india-for-the-first-time-101637779104256.html|url-status = live}} In 2023, the TFR in India declined to an all-time low of 1.9

In the Iranian calendar year (March 2019 – March 2020), Iran's total fertility rate fell to 1.8.{{cite web |date=11 November 2020 |title=Iran's demographic issue: fertility reaches lowest rate in 8 years |url=https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/454540/Iran-s-demographic-issue-fertility-reaches-lowest-rate-in-8 |work=Tehran Times |access-date=14 November 2020 |archive-date=28 April 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220428060816/https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/454540/Iran-s-demographic-issue-fertility-reaches-lowest-rate-in-8 |url-status=live }}

In 2023, the TFR of Turkey reached 1.51.|url=https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Birth-Statistics-2023-53708&dil=2 |website=TUIK |access-date=26 December 2024

{{Main|Ageing of Europe}}

{{See also|Aging of Russia}}

The average total fertility rate in the European Union (EU-27) was calculated at 1.53 children per female in 2021.{{cite web |author=Eurostat |date=March 2023 |title=Fertility statistics |url=https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Fertility_statistics |access-date= |website=ec.europa.eu |archive-date=2023-04-05 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230405084923/https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Fertility_statistics |url-status=live }} In 2021, France had the highest TFR among EU countries at 1.84, followed by Czechia (1.83), Romania (1.81), Ireland (1.78) and Denmark (1.72). In 2021, Malta had the lowest TFR among the EU countries, at 1.13. Other southern European countries also had very low TFR (Portugal 1.35, Cyprus 1.39, Greece 1.43, Spain 1.19, and Italy 1.25).

In 2021, the United Kingdom had a TFR of 1.53. In 2021 estimates for the non-EU European post-Soviet states group, Russia had a TFR of 1.60, Moldova 1.59, Ukraine 1.57, and Belarus 1.52.

Emigration of young adults from Eastern Europe to the West aggravates the demographic problems of those countries. People from countries such as Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania, and Ukraine are particularly moving abroad.{{cite web|url=https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/central-and-eastern-europe-face-emigration-challenge|title=Central and Eastern Europe Face Emigration Challenge|website=Stratfor|access-date=2016-08-25|archive-date=2017-06-13|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170613025341/https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/central-and-eastern-europe-face-emigration-challenge|url-status=live}}

In 2023, the TFR of Brazil, the most populous country in the region, was estimated at 1.75. In 2021, the second most populous country, Mexico, had an estimated TFR of 1.73. The next most populous four countries in the region had estimated TFRs of between 1.9 and 2.2 in 2023, including Colombia (1.94), Argentina (2.17), Peru (2.18), and Venezuela (2.20). Belize had the highest estimated TFR in the region at 2.59 in 2023. In 2021, Puerto Rico had the lowest, at 1.25.

{{Main|Aging of Canada}}

In 2023, the TFR of Canada was 1.26.{{Cite web |last=Aziz |first=Saba |date=25 September 2022 |title=Canada's fertility rate has hit a record low. What's behind the drop? |url=https://globalnews.ca/news/10773914/canada-fertility-rate-2023/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240926161052/https://globalnews.ca/news/10773914/canada-fertility-rate-2023/ |archive-date=26 September 2024 |access-date=26 September 2024 |website=Global News}}

{{Further|Aging of the United States}}

{{multiple image |total_width=450

| image2=1910- Fertility rate - United States.svg |caption2=After a relatively stable birth rate for thirty years, the number of live births per 100 women aged 15 to 44 resumed a decline beginning in 2008.{{cite news |last1=Bendix |first1=Aria |last2=Murphy |first2=Joe |title=The modern family size is changing. Four charts show how. |url=https://www.nbcnews.com/health/parenting/how-modern-us-family-size-changing-charts-map-rcna65421 |publisher=NBC News |date=January 12, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230603171114/https://www.nbcnews.com/health/parenting/how-modern-us-family-size-changing-charts-map-rcna65421 |archive-date=June 3, 2023 |url-status=live }} NBC's Graphic: Joe Murphy. ● Bendix and Murphy cite {{cite journal |last1=Martinez |first1=Gladys M. |last2=Daniels |first2=Kimberly |title=Fertility of Men and Women Aged 15–49 in the United States: National Survey of Family Growth, 2015–2019 |journal=National Health Statistics Reports |url=https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr179.pdf |publisher=Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230603171114/https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr179.pdf |archive-date=June 3, 2023 |date=January 10, 2023 |issue=179 |pages=1–22 |pmid=36692386 |url-status=live}}

| image3=1965- Fertility rate - United States.svg |caption3= The fertility rate in the U.S. has been in a downward trend, and is now below the replacement rate of 2.1 births.{{cite web |last1=Saric |first1=Ivana |title=Births dropped in 2023, ending pandemic baby boom |url=https://www.axios.com/2024/04/25/us-births-drop-2023 |publisher=Axios |archive-url=https://archive.today/20240427034626/https://www.axios.com/2024/04/25/us-births-drop-2023 |archive-date=April 27, 2024 |date=April 25, 2024 |url-status=live}} Axios credits CDC for data.

}}

The total fertility rate in the United States after World War II peaked at about 3.8 children per female in the late 1950s, dropped to below replacement in the early 70s, and by 1999 was at 2 children.{{cite web |title=Fertility rate, total (births per woman) |url=https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=US |website=The World Bank |access-date=2022-02-27 |archive-date=2022-04-07 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220407022903/https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=US |url-status=live }} Currently, the fertility is below replacement among those native born, and above replacement among immigrant families, most of whom come to the US from countries with higher fertility. However, the fertility rate of immigrants to the US has been found to decrease sharply in the second generation, correlating with improved education and income."How Fertility Changes Across Immigrant Generations." Research Brief #58, Public Policy Institute of California, 2002. In 2021, the US TFR was 1.664, ranging between over 2 in some states and under 1.6 in others.{{Cite web |date=24 May 2022 |title=Births: Provisional Data for 2021 |url=https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr020.pdf |access-date=24 May 2022 |website=cdc.gov |archive-date=24 May 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220524090500/https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr020.pdf |url-status=live }}

{{Further|Ageing of Australia}}

After World War II, Australia's TFR was approximately 3.0.{{Cite web |date=2012 |title=Ageing Baby Boomers in Australia |url=https://nationalseniors.com.au/research/finances/ageing-baby-boomers-in-australia |website=National Seniors Australia |access-date=2023-06-03 |archive-date=2023-06-03 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230603043942/https://nationalseniors.com.au/research/finances/ageing-baby-boomers-in-australia |url-status=live }} In 2017, Australia's TFR was 1.74, i.e. below replacement.{{Cite web |date=11 December 2018 |title=Australian women are now having children older than ever |url=http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats%5Cabs@.nsf/0/8668A9A0D4B0156CCA25792F0016186A?Opendocument |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200312090512/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats%EF%BF%BDbs%40.nsf/0/8668A9A0D4B0156CCA25792F0016186A?Opendocument |archive-date=2020-03-12 |access-date=2019-05-07 |website=Australian Bureau of Statistics}}

• List of countries by total fertility rate
• Birth rate
• Fertility and intelligence
• Income and fertility
• List of countries by past fertility rate
• Sub-replacement fertility
• Zero population growth

{{Reflist}}

{{refbegin}}

• {{cite book | last = Bulatao | first = Rodolfo | title = Reducing Fertility in Developing Countries | publisher = World Bank | location = Washington, D.C. | year = 1984 | isbn = 978-0-8213-0444-0 | url = http://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/000666403 | access-date = 2011-09-24 | archive-date = 2021-02-25 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20210225234730/http://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/000666403 | url-status = live }}

{{refend}}

• [https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/total-fertility-rate/country-comparison CIA World Factbook - Total Fertility Rate by country]
• [https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat eurostat - Your key to European statistics]
• [https://www.prb.org/resources/glossary/ Population Reference Bureau Glossary of Population Terms]
• [http://www.aetheling.com/NL/sim/population/fertility.html Java Simulation of Total Fertility].
• [http://www.aetheling.com/NL/sim/population/population1.html Java Simulation of Population Dynamics].
• [http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/rb/RB_402LHRB.pdf How Fertility Changes Across Immigrant Generations].
• [http://archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00516607 Fertility Trends, Marriage Patterns and Savant Typologies].
• [http://www.humanfertility.org/cgi-bin/main.php Human Fertility Database: Collection of age specific fertility rates for some developed countries].

{{DEFAULTSORT:Total Fertility Rate}}

Category:Human overpopulation

Category:Fertility

Category:Rates