United States midterm election#Historical record of midterm elections
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Midterm elections in the United States are the general elections that are held near the midpoint of a president's four-year term of office, on Election Day on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Federal offices that are up for election during the midterms include all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives, and 33 or 34 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate.
In addition, 34 of the 50 U.S. states elect their governors for four-year terms during midterm elections, while Vermont and New Hampshire elect governors to two-year terms in both midterm and presidential elections. Thus, 36 governors are elected during midterm elections. Many states also elect officers to their state legislatures in midterm years. There are also elections held at the municipal level. On the ballot are many mayors, other local public offices, and a wide variety of citizen and legislatively referred initiatives.
Special elections are often held in conjunction with regular elections,{{Cite book|title=Encyclopedia of the United States Congress|last1=Dewhirst|first1=Robert|last2=Rausesch|first2=John David|publisher=Infobase Publishing|year=2007|isbn=978-0816050581|location=New York|pages=138}} so additional Senators, governors and other local officials may be elected to partial terms.
Midterm elections historically generate lower voter turnout than presidential elections. While the latter have had turnouts of about 50–60% over the past 60 years, only about 40% of those eligible to vote go to the polls in midterm elections.{{cite web | url=http://www.pewcenteronthestates.org/trends_detail.aspx?id=31674 | title=Demand for Democracy | publisher=The Pew Center on the States | access-date=2011-10-13 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100618221944/http://www.pewcenteronthestates.org/trends_detail.aspx?id=31674 | archive-date=2010-06-18 | url-status=live }}Desilver, D. (2014) [http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/07/24/voter-turnout-always-drops-off-for-midterm-elections-but-why/ Voter turnout always drops off for midterm elections, but why?] Pew Research Center, July 24, 2014. Historically, midterm elections often see the president's party lose seats in Congress, and also frequently see the president's opposite-party opponents gain control of one or both houses of Congress.{{cite book|last1=Busch|first1=Andrew|title=Horses in Midstream|url=https://archive.org/details/horsesinmidstrea0000busc|url-access=registration|date=1999|publisher=University of Pittsburgh Press|pages=[https://archive.org/details/horsesinmidstrea0000busc/page/18 18]–21}}
Background
While Article II, Section 1, Clause 1 of the United States Constitution sets the U.S. president's term of office to four years, Article I, Section 2, Clause 1 sets a two-year term for congressmembers elected to the U.S. House of Representatives. Article I, Section 3, Clause 1 then sets a six-year term for those elected to the U.S. Senate, with Clause 2 dividing the chamber into three "classes" so that approximately one-third of those seats are up for election every two years.{{cite web|last1=Waxman|first1=Olivia|title=Why Do Midterm Elections Even Exist? Here's Why the Framers Scheduled Things This Way|url=https://time.com/5443162/why-midterm-elections-exist-history/|website=Time|date= November 5, 2018|access-date=October 15, 2022}}
The elections for many state and local government offices are held during the midterms so they are not overshadowed or influenced by the presidential election.{{cn|date=October 2022}} Still, a number of state and local governments instead prefer to avoid presidential and midterm years altogether and schedule their local races during odd-numbered "off-years".{{cite news | title=Why These 5 States Hold Odd-Year Elections, Bucking The Trend | url=https://www.npr.org/2019/11/04/767959274/why-these-5-states-hold-odd-year-elections-bucking-the-trend | work=NPR | date=November 4, 2019}}
Historical record of midterm
{{See also|United States presidential election#Presidential coattails}}
Midterm elections are regarded as a referendum on the sitting president's and/or incumbent party's performance.{{cite news | url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/07/AR2006110701697.html | title=A Voter Rebuke For Bush, the War And the Right | newspaper=Washington Post | date=2006-11-08 | quote=Bush and senior adviser Karl Rove tried to replicate that strategy this fall, hoping to keep the election from becoming a referendum on the president's leadership. | first1=Peter | last1=Baker | first2=Jim | last2=VandeHei | access-date=2010-05-26}}{{cite news| url=http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1998/11/04/impeachment/ | title=Election '98 Lewinsky factor never materialized| publisher=CNN | date=1998-11-04 | quote=Americans shunned the opportunity to turn Tuesday's midterm elections into a referendum on President Bill Clinton's behavior, dashing Republican hopes of gaining seats in the House and Senate.}}
The party of the incumbent president tends to lose ground during midterm elections:{{Cite book|title=The Opposition Presidency: Leadership and the Constraints of History|last=Crockett|first=David|publisher=Texas A&M University Press|year=2002|isbn=1585441570|location=College Station|pages=[https://archive.org/details/oppositionpresid00davi/page/228 228]|url-access=registration|url=https://archive.org/details/oppositionpresid00davi/page/228}} since World War II, the president's party has lost an average of 26 seats in the House, and an average of four seats in the Senate.
Moreover, since direct public midterm elections were introduced, in only eight of those (under presidents Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden) has the president's party gained seats in the House or the Senate, and of those only two (1934, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and 2002, George W. Bush) have seen the president's party gain seats in both houses.
The losses suffered during a president's second midterm tend to be more pronounced than during their first midterm,{{cite web|url=https://www.wallis.rochester.edu/assets/pdf/conference11/TheoryMidterm.pdf|title=Explaining Midterm Election Outcomes: A New Theory and an Overview of Existing Explanations}} in what is described as a "six-year itch".
| class="wikitable" style="font-size:95%; border-collapse: collapse; text-align:center;" |
| rowspan=2 | Year
! rowspan=2 | Sitting president ! rowspan=2 | President's party ! colspan=3 | Net gain/loss of president's party{{efn|Party shading shows which party controls chamber after that election.}} |
|---|
| House seats
! Senate seats |
| 1790
| rowspan=2 | George Washington | rowspan=2 | None{{efn|Gain/loss numbers are for the Pro-Administration faction (1790) and Federalist Party (1794).}} | {{Party shading/Pro-Administration}} | +3: (37 ► 40) | {{Party shading/Pro-Administration}} | 0: (18 ► 18) |
| 1794
| {{Party shading/Democratic-Republican}} | 1794 and 1795 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 4: (51 ► 47)
| {{Party shading/Federalist}} | +3: (16 ► 19) |
| 1798
| {{Party shading/Federalist}} | Federalist | {{Party shading/Federalist}} | +3: (57 ► 60) | {{Party shading/Federalist}} | 0: (22 ► 22) |
| 1802
| rowspan=2 | Thomas Jefferson | rowspan=2 {{Party shading/Democratic-Republican}} | Democratic-Republican | {{Party shading/Democratic-Republican}} | +35: (68 ► 103) | {{Party shading/Democratic-Republican}} | +5: (17 ► 22) |
| 1806
| {{Party shading/Democratic-Republican}} | +2: (114 ► 116) | {{Party shading/Democratic-Republican}} | +1: (27 ► 28) |
| 1810
| rowspan=2 | James Madison | rowspan=2 {{Party shading/Democratic-Republican}} | Democratic-Republican | {{Party shading/Democratic-Republican}} | +13: (94 ► 107) | {{Party shading/Democratic-Republican}} | 0: (26 ► 26) |
| 1814
| {{Party shading/Democratic-Republican}} | +5: (114 ► 119) | {{Party shading/Democratic-Republican}} | 1814 and 1815 United States Senate elections |
| 3: (26 ► 22) |
| 1818
| rowspan=2 | James Monroe | rowspan = 2 {{Party shading/Democratic-Republican}} | Democratic-Republican | {{Party shading/Democratic-Republican}} | +13: (145 ► 158) | {{Party shading/Democratic-Republican}} | +2: (28 ► 30) |
| 1822
| {{Party shading/Democratic-Republican}} | +34: (155 ► 189) | {{Party shading/Democratic-Republican}} | 0: (44 ► 44) |
| 1826
| {{Party shading/Democratic-Republican}} | Democratic-Republican{{efn|Gain/loss numbers are for the anti-Jacksonian faction.}} | {{Party shading/Pro-Jacksonian}} | 1826 and 1827 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 9: (109 ► 100)
| {{Party shading/Pro-Jacksonian}} | 1826 and 1827 United States Senate elections |
| 2: (21 ► 19) |
| 1830
| rowspan=2 | Andrew Jackson | rowspan=2 {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic{{efn|Gain/loss numbers are for the pro-Jacksonian faction.}} | {{Party shading/Pro-Jacksonian}} | 1830 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 10: (136 ► 126)
| {{Party shading/Pro-Jacksonian}} | +1: (25 ► 26) |
| 1834
| {{Party shading/Pro-Jacksonian}} | 0: (143 ► 143) | {{Party shading/Anti-Jacksonian}} | +1: (21 ► 22) |
| 1838
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1838 and 1839 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 3: (128 ► 125)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1838 and 1839 United States Senate elections |
| 7: (35 ► 28) |
| 1842
| None{{efn|Tyler was elected on the Whig ticket in 1840 but expelled from the party in 1841. Gain/loss numbers are for the Whig Party.}} | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1842 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 69: (142 ► 73)
| {{Party shading/Whig}} | 1842 and 1843 United States Senate elections |
| 3: (30 ► 27) |
| 1846
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | {{Party shading/Whig}} | 1846 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 30: (142 ► 112)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | +2: (33 ► 35) |
| 1850
| {{Party shading/Whig}} | Whig | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1850 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 22: (108 ► 86)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1850 and 1851 United States Senate elections |
| 3: (36 ► 33) |
| 1854
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | {{Party shading/Opposition}} | 1854 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 75: (158 ► 83)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1854 and 1855 United States Senate elections |
| 3: (36 ► 33) |
| 1858
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1858 and 1859 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 35: (133 ► 98)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1858 and 1859 United States Senate elections |
| 4: (32 ► 38) |
| 1862
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1862 and 1863 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 23: (108 ► 85)
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | +1: (31 ► 32) |
| 1866
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | {{Party shading/Republican}} | +9: (38 ► 47) | {{Party shading/Republican}} | 0: (10 ► 10) |
| 1870
| rowspan = 2 | Ulysses S. Grant | rowspan = 2 {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1870 and 1871 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 32: (171 ► 139)
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1870 and 1871 United States Senate elections |
| 5: (63 ► 58) |
| 1874
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1874 and 1875 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 93: (199 ► 106)
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1874 and 1875 United States Senate elections |
| 10: (52 ► 42) |
| 1878
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1878 and 1879 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 4: (136 ► 132)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1878 and 1879 United States Senate elections |
| 7: (38 ► 31) |
| 1882
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1882 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 29: (151 ► 118)
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | 0: (37 ► 37) |
| 1886
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1886 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 16: (183 ► 167)
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | +2: (34 ► 36) |
| 1890
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1890 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 93: (179 ► 86)
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1890 and 1891 United States Senate elections |
| 4: (47 ► 43) |
| 1894
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1894 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 127: (220 ► 93)
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1894 and 1895 United States Senate elections |
| 4: (44 ► 40) |
| 1898
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1898 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 21: (205 ► 189)
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | +6: (44 ► 50) |
| 1902
| rowspan = 2 | Theodore Roosevelt | rowspan = 2 {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | {{Party shading/Republican}} | +9: (201 ► 210) | {{Party shading/Republican}} | 0: (55 ► 55) |
| 1906
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1906 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 27: (251 ► 224)
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | +2: (58 ► 60) |
| 1910
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1910 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 56: (219 ► 163)
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1910 and 1911 United States Senate elections |
| 9: (59 ► 50) |
| 1914
| rowspan=2 | Woodrow Wilson | rowspan=2 {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1914 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 61: (291 ► 230)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | +3: (50 ► 53) |
| 1918
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1918 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 22: (214 ► 192)
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1918 United States Senate elections |
| 4: (52 ► 48) |
| 1922
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1922 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 77: (302 ► 225)
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1922 United States Senate elections |
| 7: (60 ► 53) |
| 1926
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1926 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 9: (247 ► 238)
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1926 United States Senate elections |
| 6: (56 ► 50) |
| 1930
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1930 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 52: (270 ► 218)
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1930 United States Senate elections |
| 6: (56 ► 50) |
| 1934
| rowspan=3 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | rowspan=3 {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | +9: (313 ► 322) | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | +9: (60 ► 69) |
| 1938
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1938 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 72: (334 ► 262)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1938 United States Senate elections |
| 7: (75 ► 68) |
| 1942
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1942 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 45: (267 ► 222)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1942 United States Senate elections |
| 8: (65 ► 57) |
| 1946
| rowspan=2 | Harry S. Truman | rowspan=2 {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1946 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 54: (242 ► 188)
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1946 United States Senate elections |
| 10: (56 ► 46) |
| 1950
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1950 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 28: (263 ► 235)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1950 United States Senate elections |
| 5: (54 ► 49) |
| 1954
| rowspan=2 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | rowspan=2 {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1954 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 18: (221 ► 203)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1954 United States Senate elections |
| 2: (49 ► 47) |
| 1958
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1958 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 48: (201 ► 153)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1958 United States Senate elections |
| 12: (47 ► 35) |
| 1962
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1962 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 4: (262 ► 258)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | +4: (64 ► 68) |
| 1966
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1966 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 47: (295 ► 248)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1966 United States Senate elections |
| 3: (67 ► 64) |
| 1970
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1970 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 12: (192 ► 180)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | +2: (43 ► 45) |
| 1974
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1974 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 48: (192 ► 144)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1974 United States Senate elections |
| 4: (42 ► 38) |
| 1978
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1978 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 15: (292 ► 277)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1978 United States Senate elections |
| 2: (61 ► 59) |
| 1982
| rowspan=2 | Ronald Reagan | rowspan=2 {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1982 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 26: (192 ► 166)
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | 0: (54 ► 54) |
| 1986
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1986 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 5: (182 ► 177)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1986 United States Senate elections |
| 8: (53 ► 45) |
| 1990
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1990 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 8: (175 ► 167)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 1990 United States Senate elections |
| 1: (45 ► 44) |
| 1994
| rowspan=2 | Bill Clinton | rowspan=2 {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1994 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 54: (258 ► 204)
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | 1994 United States Senate elections |
| 9: (56 ► 47) |
| 1998
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | +4: (207 ► 211) | {{Party shading/Republican}} | 0: (45 ► 45) |
| 2002
| rowspan=2 | George W. Bush | rowspan=2 {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | {{Party shading/Republican}} | +8: (221 ► 229) | {{Party shading/Republican}} | +2: (49 ► 51) |
| 2006
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 2006 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 32: (231 ► 199)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 2006 United States Senate elections |
| 6: (55 ► 49) |
| 2010
| rowspan=2 | Barack Obama | rowspan=2 {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | {{Party shading/Republican}} | 2010 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 63: (256 ► 193)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 2010 United States Senate elections |
| 6: (59 ► 53) |
| 2014
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | 2014 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 13: (201 ► 188)
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | 2014 United States Senate elections |
| 9: (55 ► 46) |
| 2018
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | {{Party shading/Democratic}} | 2018 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 41: (241 ► 200)
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | +2: (51 ► 53) |
| 2022
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | Democratic | {{Party shading/Republican}} |2022 United States House of Representatives elections |
| 9: (222 ► 213)
| {{Party shading/Democratic}} | +1: (50 ► 51) |
| 2026
| {{Party shading/Republican}} | Republican | TBD | TBD |
Comparison with other U.S. general elections
{{US elections}}
Notes
{{notelist}}
References
{{reflist}}
External links
- {{cite news | url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4734318.stm | title=Q&A: US mid-term elections | publisher=BBC News | date=8 November 2006 | access-date=26 May 2010}}
{{United States elections}}