early warning system

Risk analysis involves systematically collecting data and undertaking risk assessments of predefined hazards and vulnerabilities. Monitoring and warning involves a study of the factors that indicate a disaster is imminent, as well as the methods used to detect these factors. Dissemination and communication concerns communicating the risk information and warnings to reach those in danger in a way that is clear and understandable. Finally, an adequate response capability requires the building of national and community response plan, testing of the plan, and the promotion of readiness to ensure that people know how to respond to warnings.

An early warning system is more than a warning system, which is simply a means by which an alert can be disseminated to the public.

Early-warning radars, early warning satellites, and Airborne early warning and control are systems used for detecting potential missile attacks. Throughout human history the warning systems that use such have malfunctioned several times, including some nuclear-weapons-related false alarms.{{cite web |title=False Alarms in the Nuclear Age |date=6 November 2001 |url=https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/nuclear-false-alarms/ |publisher=PBS |access-date=28 October 2021}} Due to the massive availability of information through (social) media, early-warning systems that use these vast amounts of information are also developed to potentially detect risks of terrorism and novel terror attacks.{{Cite journal |last1=Lampe |first1=Hannes |last2=Herschinger |first2=Eva |last3=Nitzl |first3=Christian |last4=Willems |first4=Jurgen |date=2024-06-03 |title=Predicting Novel Terrorism: Media Coverage as Early-Warning System of Novelty in Terror Attacks |journal=Terrorism and Political Violence |language=en |pages=1–22 |doi=10.1080/09546553.2024.2345729 |issn=0954-6553|doi-access=free }} This builds on the assumption that aggregated news coverage functions as a wisdom-of-the-crowd mechanism, where aggregated (and quantified) information can provide a reliable and cost-effective source of information for more accurate and precise predictions.{{Cite journal |last1=Lampe |first1=Hannes |last2=Herschinger |first2=Eva |last3=Nitzl |first3=Christian |last4=Willems |first4=Jurgen |date=2024-06-03 |title=Predicting Novel Terrorism: Media Coverage as Early-Warning System of Novelty in Terror Attacks |journal=Terrorism and Political Violence |language=en |pages=1–22 |doi=10.1080/09546553.2024.2345729 |issn=0954-6553|doi-access=free }}

The easiest or most likely artificial signals from Earth to be detectable from around distant stars are brief pulses transmitted by such anti-ballistic missile (ABM) early-warning and space-surveillance radars during the Cold War and later astronomical and military radars.{{cite journal |title=The benefits and harm of transmitting into space |journal=Space Policy |date=1 February 2013 |volume=29 |issue=1 |pages=40–48 |doi=10.1016/j.spacepol.2012.11.006 |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0265964612001361 |access-date=9 April 2021 |language=en |issn=0265-9646|arxiv=1207.5540 |last1=Haqq-Misra |first1=Jacob |last2=Busch |first2=Michael W. |last3=Som |first3=Sanjoy M. |last4=Baum |first4=Seth D. |bibcode=2013SpPol..29...40H |s2cid=7070311 }}{{cite book |last1=Sullivan |first1=W. T. III |chapter=Radio Leakage and Eavesdropping |title=Strategies for the Search for Life in the Universe |series=Astrophysics and Space Science Library |date=1980 |volume=83 |pages=227–239 |doi=10.1007/978-94-009-9115-6_20 |bibcode=1980ASSL...83..227S |isbn=978-90-277-1226-4 |chapter-url=https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1980ASSL...83..227S/abstract |access-date=9 April 2021}}

Scientists are researching and developing systems to predict eruptions of volcanoes, earthquakes and other natural disasters.{{cite news |title=New Zealand scientists invent volcano warning system |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/20/new-zealand-scientists-invent-volcano-warning-system |access-date=28 October 2021 |work=The Guardian |date=19 July 2020 |language=en}}{{cite journal |last1=Sakuno |first1=Yuji |title=Trial of Chemical Composition Estimation Related to Submarine Volcano Activity Using Discolored Seawater Color Data Obtained from GCOM-C SGLI. A Case Study of Nishinoshima Island, Japan, in 2020 |journal=Water |date=January 2021 |volume=13 |issue=8 |page=1100 |doi=10.3390/w13081100 |language=en|doi-access=free }}{{cite web |title=Can NASA predict natural disasters? |url=https://science.howstuffworks.com/innovation/nasa-inventions/nasa-predict-natural-disasters.htm |website=HowStuffWorks |access-date=28 October 2021 |language=en |date=3 March 2011}}

{{Excerpt|Earthquake warning system}}

Early warning systems could be developed and used to prevent and mitigate pandemics, e.g. before they spillover from other animals to humans, and disease outbreaks.{{cite news |title=AI may predict the next virus to jump from animals to humans |url=https://phys.org/news/2021-09-ai-virus-animals-humans.html |access-date=19 October 2021 |work=Public Library of Science |language=en}}{{cite journal |last1=Mollentze |first1=Nardus |last2=Babayan |first2=Simon A. |last3=Streicker |first3=Daniel G. |title=Identifying and prioritizing potential human-infecting viruses from their genome sequences |journal=PLOS Biology |date=28 September 2021 |volume=19 |issue=9 |pages=e3001390 |pmid=34582436| doi=10.1371/journal.pbio.3001390 | pmc=8478193 |language=en |issn=1545-7885 |doi-access=free }}

{{See also|Effects of climate change|Climate change adaptation}}

Because of changes in extreme weather and sea level rise, due to climate change, the UN has recommended early warning systems as key elements of climate change adaptation and climate risk management.{{Cite web|last=Nations|first=United|title=Early Warning Systems|url=https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/climate-solutions/early-warning-systems|access-date=19 April 2021|website=United Nations|language=en}} Flooding, cyclones and other rapidly changing weather events can make communities in coastal areas, along floodzones and reliant on agriculture very vulnerable to extreme events. To this end the UN is running a partnership titled "Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems" to aid high risk countries with neglected warning systems in developing them.

European countries have also seen early warning systems help communities adapt to drought, heat waves, disease, fire, and other related effects of climate change.{{Cite web|title=Establishment of early warning systems — Climate-ADAPT|url=https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/metadata/adaptation-options/establishment-of-early-warning-systems|access-date=19 April 2021|website=climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu}} Similarly the WHO recommends early warning systems to prevent increases in heatwave related morbidity and disease outbreaks.{{Cite web|title=Early warning systems|url=https://www.who.int/activities/building-capacity-on-climate-change-human-health/toolkit/early-warning-systems|access-date=19 April 2021|website=www.who.int|language=en}}

U.S. government agencies are operating an airborne early warning system for detecting small concentrations of aerosols to detect where other countries might be carrying out geoengineering attempts. Solar radiation modification is thought to have unpredictable effects on climate.{{cite news |last1=Flavelle |first1=Christopher |title=The U.S. Is Building an Early Warning System to Detect Geoengineering |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/28/climate/geoengineering-early-warning-system.html |work=The New York Times |date=28 November 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241202135942/lhttps://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/28/climate/geoengineering-early-warning-system.html |archive-date=2 December 2024 |url-status=live }}

A large number of chemical substances (approximately 350,000){{Cite journal |last=Wang |first=Z |date=2020 |title=Toward a Global Understanding of Chemical Pollution: A First Comprehensive Analysis of National and Regional Chemical Inventories |journal=Environmental Science and Technology |volume=54 |issue=5 |pages=2575–2584|doi=10.1021/acs.est.9b06379 |pmid=31968937 |bibcode=2020EnST...54.2575W |s2cid=210865654 |doi-access=free |hdl=20.500.11850/405322 |hdl-access=free }} have been created and used without full understanding of the hazards and risks that they each pose. Chemicals have the potential to cause environmental degradation and harm to human health. Chemical prioritisation and early warning systems{{Cite web |title=Study for the strategy for a non-toxic environment of the 7th EAP. Sub-study g: Early Warning Systems for emerging chemical risks |url=https://ec.europa.eu/environment/chemicals/non-toxic/pdf/Sub-study%20g%20early%20warning%20syst.%20NTE%20final.pdf |access-date=29 October 2022}} are being created to help understand which chemicals should be focused upon for regulatory interventions.

The Environment Agency in England have set up a National scale Prioritisation and Early Warning System (PEWS) for contaminants of emerging concern.{{Cite web |last=Sims |first=Kerry |date=2022 |title=Chemicals of concern: a prioritisation and early warning system for England |url=https://www.envchemgroup.com/eb-35-chemical-of-concern.html |access-date=29 October 2022}}

Since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, there has been a surge of interest in developing early warning systems.{{cite journal|last=Basher|first=Reid|title=Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centered|journal=Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society|volume=364|issue=1845|pages=2167–2182|date=15 August 2006|doi=10.1098/rsta.2006.1819|pmid=16844654|bibcode=2006RSPTA.364.2167B|s2cid=6252454}}{{cite web|url=http://www.wcdrr.org/news?id=43134|title=Japan provides early warning example|date=15 March 2015|publisher=UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction}} However, early warning systems can be used to detect a wide range of events, such as vehicular collisions, missile launches, disease outbreaks, and so forth. See warning system for a wider list of applications that also can be supported by early warning systems.

File:Ews observer controller subsystems.png

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• Bioindicator — a species that reveals the status of the environment
• Emergency communication system

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Category:Disaster management tools

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