future-oriented technology analysis

{{Futures studies}}

{{other uses of|FTA}}

Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is a collective term from futures studies for analyzing future technology and its consequences.{{cite journal |last1=Filip |first1=F. G. |last2=Dragomirescu |first2=H. |last3=Predescu |first3=R. |last4=Ilie |first4=R. |title=IT tools for foresight studies |journal=Studies in Informatics and Control |date=2004 |issue=13 |page=161-168 |url=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/251920253}}{{cite journal |title=Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods |journal=Technological Forecasting and Social Change |date=1 March 2004 |volume=71 |issue=3 |pages=287–303 |doi=10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004 |s2cid=18904868 |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162503001380 |language=en |issn=0040-1625|url-access=subscription }} It includes technology intelligence, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping, technology assessment, and technology foresight. Technology Futures Analysis or Technology Future Analysis (TFA) is a synonym.{{cite journal |last1=Sánchez-Torres |first1=J. M. |last2=Miles |first2=I. |title=The role of future-oriented technology analysis in e-Government: a systematic review |journal=European Journal of Futures Research |date=16 December 2017 |volume=5 |issue=1 |pages=15 |doi=10.1007/s40309-017-0131-7 |s2cid=9744177 |language=en |issn=2195-2248|doi-access=free }}

Future-oriented technology analysis shares common methods with horizon scanning.{{cite journal |last1=Eerola |first1=A. |last2=Miles |first2=I. |title=Methods and tools contributing to FTA: A knowledge-based perspective |journal=Futures |date=1 April 2011 |volume=43 |issue=3 |pages=265–278 |doi=10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.005 |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016328710002697 |language=en |issn=0016-3287|url-access=subscription }}{{cite journal |last1=Tagiew |first1=Rustam |last2=Witzler |first2=Sebastian |last3=Portier |first3=Martin |title=Towards Assessing Digital Technologies for the Future of Mobility |date=14 July 2022 |url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4151745 |publisher=Social Science Research Network |ssrn=4151745 |language=en}}

Definitions

class="wikitable sortable"
YearDefinition
2004Technology futures analysis is "any process to produce judgments about emerging technology characteristics, development pathways, and potential impacts of a technology in the future. ... [TFA] encompasses the broad technology foresight and assessment studies of the public sector and the technology forecasting and intelligence studies in private industry."{{cite journal |title=Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods |journal=Technological Forecasting and Social Change |date=1 March 2004 |volume=71 |issue=3 |pages=287–303 |doi=10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004 |s2cid=18904868 |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162503001380 |language=en |issn=0040-1625|url-access=subscription }}
2013Future-oriented technology analysis is "an umbrella term to denote several decision-preparatory tools - (technology) foresight, forecasting and technology assessment - and thus it is not a discipline with solid, widely accepted theoretical foundations."{{cite journal |last1=Cagnin |first1=Cristiano |last2=Havas |first2=Attila |last3=Saritas |first3=Ozcan |title=Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations |journal=Technological Forecasting and Social Change |date=1 March 2013 |volume=80 |issue=3 |pages=379–385 |doi=10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.001 |s2cid=60530892 |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162512002454 |language=en |issn=0040-1625}}

Methods

class="wikitable sortable"

|+ Methods and their families{{cite journal |title=Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods |journal=Technological Forecasting and Social Change |date=1 March 2004 |volume=71 |issue=3 |pages=287–303 |doi=10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004 |s2cid=18904868 |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162503001380 |language=en |issn=0040-1625|url-access=subscription }}

MethodFamily
Agent based modelingModeling and simulation
Analytical hierarchy processValuing/decision/economic
BackcastingDescriptive and matrices
BibliometricsMonitoring and intelligence, Statistics
BrainstormingCreativity
Cross impact analysisModeling and simulation, Statistics
DelphiExpert Opinion
Multicriteria decision analysesValuing/decision/economic
Relevance treeDescriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
Risk analysisDescriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
RoadmappingDescriptive and matrices
ScenariosScenarios
Social impact assessmentDescriptive and matrices
Stakeholder analysisDescriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
Sustainability analysisDescriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation
System dynamicsModeling and simulation
Technology assessmentDescriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation
TRIZCreativity

References