future-oriented technology analysis
{{Futures studies}}
{{other uses of|FTA}}
Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is a collective term from futures studies for analyzing future technology and its consequences.{{cite journal |last1=Filip |first1=F. G. |last2=Dragomirescu |first2=H. |last3=Predescu |first3=R. |last4=Ilie |first4=R. |title=IT tools for foresight studies |journal=Studies in Informatics and Control |date=2004 |issue=13 |page=161-168 |url=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/251920253}}{{cite journal |title=Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods |journal=Technological Forecasting and Social Change |date=1 March 2004 |volume=71 |issue=3 |pages=287–303 |doi=10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004 |s2cid=18904868 |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162503001380 |language=en |issn=0040-1625|url-access=subscription }} It includes technology intelligence, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping, technology assessment, and technology foresight. Technology Futures Analysis or Technology Future Analysis (TFA) is a synonym.{{cite journal |last1=Sánchez-Torres |first1=J. M. |last2=Miles |first2=I. |title=The role of future-oriented technology analysis in e-Government: a systematic review |journal=European Journal of Futures Research |date=16 December 2017 |volume=5 |issue=1 |pages=15 |doi=10.1007/s40309-017-0131-7 |s2cid=9744177 |language=en |issn=2195-2248|doi-access=free }}
Future-oriented technology analysis shares common methods with horizon scanning.{{cite journal |last1=Eerola |first1=A. |last2=Miles |first2=I. |title=Methods and tools contributing to FTA: A knowledge-based perspective |journal=Futures |date=1 April 2011 |volume=43 |issue=3 |pages=265–278 |doi=10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.005 |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016328710002697 |language=en |issn=0016-3287|url-access=subscription }}{{cite journal |last1=Tagiew |first1=Rustam |last2=Witzler |first2=Sebastian |last3=Portier |first3=Martin |title=Towards Assessing Digital Technologies for the Future of Mobility |date=14 July 2022 |url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4151745 |publisher=Social Science Research Network |ssrn=4151745 |language=en}}
Definitions
Methods
class="wikitable sortable" | |
Method | Family |
---|---|
Agent based modeling | Modeling and simulation |
Analytical hierarchy process | Valuing/decision/economic |
Backcasting | Descriptive and matrices |
Bibliometrics | Monitoring and intelligence, Statistics |
Brainstorming | Creativity |
Cross impact analysis | Modeling and simulation, Statistics |
Delphi | Expert Opinion |
Multicriteria decision analyses | Valuing/decision/economic |
Relevance tree | Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic |
Risk analysis | Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic |
Roadmapping | Descriptive and matrices |
Scenarios | Scenarios |
Social impact assessment | Descriptive and matrices |
Stakeholder analysis | Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic |
Sustainability analysis | Descriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation |
System dynamics | Modeling and simulation |
Technology assessment | Descriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation |
TRIZ | Creativity |