guesstimate

{{short description|Estimate made without using adequate or complete information}}

{{for|the 2009 BBC (UK) TV series|Guesstimation (game show)}}

Guesstimate is an informal English portmanteau of guess and estimate, first used by American statisticians in 1934[http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=guess guess] Online Etymological Dictionary or 1935.[http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/guesstimate guesstimate] Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.1) It is defined as an estimate made without using adequate or complete information,[http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/guesstimate guesstimate] Merriam-Webster On-line Dictionary[http://encarta.msn.com/dictionary_1861615713/guesstimate.html guesstimate] MSN Encarta Dictionary. [https://web.archive.org/web/20091212031415/http://encarta.msn.com/dictionary_1861615713/guesstimate.html Archived] 2009-10-31. or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by guesswork or conjecture.[http://www.bartleby.com/61/17/G0301700.html guesstimate] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080316182507/http://www.bartleby.com/61/17/G0301700.html |date=2008-03-16 }} American Heritage DictionaryCompact Oxford English Dictionary [https://web.archive.org/web/20050204183933/http://www.askoxford.com/concise_oed/guesstimate?view=uk guesstimate] Like the words estimate and guess, guesstimate may be used as a verb or a noun (with the same change in pronunciation as estimate). A guesstimate may be a first rough approximation pending a more accurate estimate, or it may be an educated guess at something for which no better information will become available.

The word may be used in a pejorative sense if information for a better estimate is available but ignored."Guesstimate with confidence using confidence intervals" from back cover of Statistics for Dummies[http://www.thirteen.org/edonline/nttidb/lessons/sf/guesssf.html Guesstimate; Grades 4-6] NTTI Lesson Plan

Guesstimation techniques are used:

• in physics, where the use of guesstimation techniques to solve Fermi problems is taught as a useful skill to science students;[http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/story.asp?storyCode=402275§ioncode=26 Guesstimation: Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin], Tony Mann, Times Higher Education Supplement
• in cosmology, where the Drake equation is a well-known guesstimation method;[http://wearentalone.googlepages.com/drake.html The Drake Equation] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090926212012/http://wearentalone.googlepages.com/drake.html |date=2009-09-26 }} WeAreNotAlone.net
• in economics, where economic forecasts and statistics are often based on guesstimates; [http://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/stories/2003/10/13/editorial3.html Economic outlooks often rely on guesstimation], M. Ray Perryman, San Antonio Business Journal and
• in software engineering, where new development of features and release timelines are based on effort guesstimates of tasks.

Lawrence Weinstein and John Adam's 2009 book Guesstimation: Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin, based on the course "Physics on the Back of an Envelope" at Old Dominion University, promotes guesstimation techniques as a useful life skill. It includes many worked examples of guesstimation, including estimating the total number of miles that Americans drive in a year (about 2 trillion)Weinstein & Adam (2008) Problem 5.1 and the amount of high-level nuclear waste that a 1 GW nuclear power plant produces in a year (about 60 tons).Weinstein & Adam (2008) Problem 10.5

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