2006 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania#Polling

{{Short description|none}}

{{Use mdy dates|date=November 2017}}

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2006 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

| country = Pennsylvania

| type = presidential

| ongoing = no

| previous_election = 2000 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

| previous_year = 2000

| next_election = 2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

| next_year = 2012

| election_date = November 7, 2006

| image_size = x150px

| image1 = Senator Bob Casey official photo 2007 (cropped).jpg

| nominee1 = Bob Casey Jr.

| party1 = Democratic Party (United States)

| popular_vote1 = 2,392,984

| percentage1 = 58.64%

| image2 = Rick Santorum official photo.jpg

| nominee2 = Rick Santorum

| party2 = Republican Party (United States)

| popular_vote2 = 1,684,778

| percentage2 = 41.28%

| map_image = {{switcher

|260px|County results

|260px|Congressional district results}}

| map_caption = Casey: {{legend0|#7996e2|50–60%}} {{legend0|#6674de|60–70%}} {{legend0|#584cde|70–80%}} {{legend0|#3933e5|80–90%}}
Santorum: {{legend0|#e27f7f|50–60%}} {{legend0|#d75d5d|60–70%}}

| title = U.S. Senator

| before_election = Rick Santorum

| before_party = Republican Party (United States)

| after_election = Bob Casey Jr.

| after_party = Democratic Party (United States)

}}

{{ElectionsPA}}

The 2006 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 7, 2006. Incumbent Republican Rick Santorum ran for re-election to a third term, but was easily defeated by Democratic State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr., the son of former Governor

Bob Casey Sr.James O'Toole. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. [http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05017/443573.stm "Santorum in cross hairs for 2006 election."] January 17, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2007. Casey was elected to serve between January 3, 2007 and January 3, 2013.

Santorum trailed Casey in every public poll taken during the campaign. Casey's margin of victory (nearly 18% of those who voted) was the largest ever for a Democratic Senate nominee in Pennsylvania, the largest margin of victory for a Senate challenger in the 2006 elections, and the largest general election margin of defeat for an incumbent U.S. senator since 1980.Borys Krawczeniuk. The Times-Tribune. [http://www.thetimes-tribune.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17442994&BRD=2185&PAG=461&dept_id=415898&rfi=6 "Casey dominated like no one before."] November 9, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007. Casey was the first Pennsylvania Democrat to win a full term in the Senate since Joseph S. Clark Jr. in 1962, and the first Democrat to win a Senate election since 1991. He was the first Democrat to win a full term for this seat since 1940.

This was one of the three Republican-held Senate seats up for election in a state that John Kerry won in the 2004 presidential election.

As of {{CURRENTYEAR}}, this was the last time the following counties have voted Democratic in a Senate election: Greene, Washington, Westmoreland, Somerset, Lawrence, Mercer, Armstrong, Indiana, Cambria, Warren, Forest, Elk, Clearfield, Clinton, Schuylkill, Columbia, and Carbon. This was also the last time an incumbent senator from Pennsylvania lost re-election until 2024, when Casey was defeated by David McCormick.

Republican primary

= Candidates =

== Nominee ==

==Withdrew==

  • John Featherman, Libertarian nominee for U.S. Senate in 2000

Featherman withdrew his candidacy after a Republican party petition challenge because he did not have the necessary number of signatures to get on the ballot. As a result, Santorum won the Republican nomination unopposed.Kimberly Hefling, The Associated Press. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. [http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06075/671025.stm "Santorum's only GOP challenger bowing out of primary."] March 16, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.

=Results=

{{Election box begin no change

| title = 2006 Republican U.S. Senate primary{{cite web|url=https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/Home/SummaryResults?ElectionID=15&ElectionType=P&IsActive=0|title=Pennsylvania Elections {{!}} Summary Results|access-date=27 Sep 2023}}}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| candidate = Rick Santorum (incumbent)

| votes = 561,952

| percentage = 100.00%

}}

{{Election box total no change

| votes = 561,952

| percentage = 100.00%

}}

{{Election box end}}

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary was held May 16, 2006.

= Candidates =

== Nominee ==

  • Bob Casey Jr., State Treasurer, former State Auditor General, candidate for Governor in 2002 and son of former Governor Bob Casey, Sr.James O'Toole. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. [http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06128/688317-177.stm "Voters Guide 2006: 2 battle Casey for Democratic U.S. Senate nomination."] May 8, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.

== Eliminated in primary ==

==Declined==

  • Barbara Hafer, former State Auditor General and State TreasurerBob Casey for US Senate. [http://ga4.org/senate2006/pressreleases.html "Hafer endorses Casey for U.S. Senate."] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151017045919/http://ga4.org/senate2006/pressreleases.html |date=October 17, 2015 }} June 7, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  • Joe Hoeffel, U.S. RepresentativePeter Jackson, The Associated Press. The Times-Tribune. [http://www.thetimes-tribune.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=14084329&BRD=2185&PAG=461&dept_id=415898&rfi=8 Casey to seek Senate nominationl; Hafer and Hoeffel out."] March 4, 2007. Accessed February 8, 2007.

= Results =

Casey won a landslide victory in the primary.Pennsylvania Department of State. [http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=20&OfficeID=2 Commonwealth of PA - Elections Information.] Accessed February 8, 2007.

{{Election box begin no change

| title = 2006 Democratic U.S. Senate primary}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| candidate = Bob Casey, Jr.

| votes = 629,271

| percentage = 84.48%

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| candidate = Chuck Pennacchio

| votes = 66,364

| percentage = 8.91%

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link no change

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| candidate = Alan Sandals

| votes = 48,113

| percentage = 6.46%

}}

{{Election box write-in with party link no change

|votes=1,114

|percentage=0.15%

}}

{{Election box total no change

| votes = 744,862

| percentage = 100.00%

}}

{{Election box end}}

General election

= Candidates =

==Declined==

Michelman decided against running and tacitly endorsed Casey in March 2006James O'Toole. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. [http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06080/673821-178.stm "Democratic long shots seek limelight."] March 21, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.

== Disqualified ==

Romanelli was removed from the ballot by a Commonwealth Court judge on September 25, 2006, following a challenge from Democrats for failing to collect enough valid signatures required of third-party candidates. He lost the appeal to the state Supreme Court challenging the required number of signatures, on October 3, 2006James O'Toole. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. [http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06277/727247-177.stm "Green Party hopeful is out; win for Casey."] October 4, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007. Carl Romanelli was ordered to pay more than $80,000 in legal fees stemming from his failed effort to make the ballot.{{Cite web |url=http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17748994&BRD=2259&PAG=461&dept_id=455154&rfi=6 |title=The Citizens Voice - Breaking News: Romanelli ordered to pay more than $80,000 |access-date=July 18, 2007 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070930035713/http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17748994&BRD=2259&PAG=461&dept_id=455154&rfi=6 |archive-date=September 30, 2007 |url-status=dead }}

= Campaign =

== Santorum's support for Arlen Specter ==

{{See also|Rick Santorum#Specter endorsement}}

Republican strategists took Santorum's primary result in 2006 as a bad omen, in which he ran unopposed for the Republican nomination. Republican gubernatorial nominee Lynn Swann, also unopposed, garnered 22,000 more votes statewide than Santorum in the primary, meaning thousands of Republican voters abstained from endorsing Santorum for another Senate term. This may have been partly due to Santorum's support for Arlen Specter over Congressman Pat Toomey in the 2004 Republican primary for the U.S. Senate. Even though Santorum was only slightly less conservative than Toomey, he joined virtually all of the state and national Republican establishment in supporting the moderate Specter. This led many socially and fiscally conservative Republicans to consider Santorum's support of Specter to be a betrayal of their cause.{{cite news| url=http://www.nysun.com/article/41237| title=Outside Santorum's Sanctum| author=Jerry Bowyer| publisher=New York Sun| date=October 10, 2006| access-date=February 23, 2011| archive-date=January 19, 2008| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080119235739/http://www.nysun.com/article/41237| url-status=dead}}{{cite news| url=http://www.nationalreview.com/moore/moore200404150838.asp| title=Santorum's Shame| author=Stephen Moore| publisher=National Review| date=April 15, 2004}}{{cite news| url=https://americasfuture.org/betrayal-in-pennsylvania/| title=Betrayal in Pennsylvania| first=Timothy P. |last=Carney| publisher=AFF's Brainwash| date=November 1, 2009}} However, Santorum said he supported Specter to avoid risking a Toomey loss in the general election, which would have prevented President George W. Bush's judicial nominees from Senate confirmation. Santorum says Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito would not have been confirmed without the help of Specter, who was chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee at the time.[http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-santorum-dogged-by-specter-endorsement-in-iowa-20120102,0,7833929.story In Iowa, Specter endorsement haunts Rick Santorum]

== Santorum's controversial views ==

{{see also|Campaign for santorum neologism}}

In the Senate, Santorum was an outspoken conservative from a state with a history of electing moderates. This led many political commentators to speculate that his low approval ratings were due to some of his more controversial statements and opinions.

Among these controversies were his views on the privatization of Social SecurityMaeve Reston. Pittsburgh-Post Gazette. [http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05053/461038.stm "Santorum finds many minds made up on Social Security."] February 22, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2007.Americans United. [http://www.americansforsocialsecurity.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=126&Itemid=62 "Americans United announces "Mobilization against Privatization."] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20061022011136/https://www.americansforsocialsecurity.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=126&Itemid=62 |date=October 22, 2006 }} April 19, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2007. and the teaching of intelligent design in public schools.The Associated Press. The Washington Post. [https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/22/AR2005122202055_pf.html Santorum breaks with Christian Right law center."] December 23, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2007. In addition, his involvement in the Terri Schiavo case was considered by many in his state to be out of place.Tom Barnes. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. [http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05169/523762.stm "Santorum defends Schiavo visit."] June 18, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2007.Page Rockwell. Salon. [http://dir.salon.com/story/politics/war_room/2005/04/21/santorum/print.html?blog=/politics/war_room/2005/04/21/santorum/index.html "Rick Santorum's Schiavo woes."] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110606191517/http://dir.salon.com/story/politics/war_room/2005/04/21/santorum/print.html?blog=%2Fpolitics%2Fwar_room%2F2005%2F04%2F21%2Fsantorum%2Findex.html |date=June 6, 2011 }} April 25, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2005.

All this left Santorum in a precarious position throughout the race. On May 31, 2006, the polling firm Rasmussen Reports declared that Santorum was the "most vulnerable incumbent" among the senators running for re-election.Rasmussen Reports. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/May%202006/paSenateMay.htm "Pennsylvania Senate: Casey by 23."] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060602005312/http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/May%202006/paSenateMay.htm |date=June 2, 2006 }} May 31, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007. SurveyUSA polling taken right before the election showed that Santorum was the least popular of all 100 senators, with a 38% approval rating and a net approval rating of -19%.SurveyUSA. [http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2006/100USSenatorApproval061024Net.htm "Approval Ratings for all 100 U.S. Senators as of 10/24/06."] October 24, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.

== Santorum's residency ==

While Santorum maintained a small residence in Penn Hills, a township near Pittsburgh, his family primarily lived in a large house in Leesburg, a suburb of Washington, D.C. in Northern Virginia. Santorum faced charges of hypocrisy from critics who noted the similarities between his living situation and that of former Representative Doug Walgren, who Santorum defeated in 1990. Back then, Santorum had claimed that Walgren was out of touch with his district; these claims were backed up with commercials showing Walgren's home in the Virginia suburbs.Brian O'Neill. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. [http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06145/692949-155.stm Santorum: Hoisted on his own back yard."] May 25, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.

On NBC's Meet the Press on September 3, 2006, Santorum admitted that he only spent "maybe a month a year, something like that" at his Pennsylvania residence.Meet the Press with Tim Russert. [https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna14568263 "MTP Transcript for Sept. 3."] September 6, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.

Santorum also drew criticism for enrolling five of his six children in an online "cyber school" in Pennsylvania's Allegheny County (home to Pittsburgh and most of its suburbs), despite the fact that the children lived in Virginia. The Penn Hills School District was billed $73,000 in tuition for the cyber classes.{{cite news | url=http://www.gatewaynewspapers.com/pennhillsprogress/65799/ | title=Dems Press Cyber Cost Issue | author=Vera Miller | publisher=Penn Hills Progress | date=September 20, 2006 }}{{Dead link|date=August 2019 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}

== Casey's momentum ==

Santorum began his contrast campaign against Casey early, charging him with relentlessly seeking higher political officeRickSantorum.com. [http://www.ricksantorum.com/Multimedia/MMPlayer_Set.aspx?ID=1124&TypeID=1 "Hey There, Hi There, Ho There."] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20061214011514/http://www.ricksantorum.com//Multimedia/MMPlayer_Set.aspx?ID=1124&TypeID=1 |date=December 14, 2006 }} August 26, 2006. Accessed February 12, 2007. and failing to take definitive stands on issues.Bill Toland. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. [http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06286/729698-177.stm "Santorum, Casey go toe-to-toe in debate."] October 13, 2006. Accessed February 12, 2007. While these charges kept the race competitive, in late September and through October, Casey's campaign seemed to regain the momentum it had had throughout most of the campaign, as most polls showed Casey widening his lead after a summer slump. In a Quinnipiac University Polling Institute poll, released on September 26, 2006, Casey was favored by 14 points.Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. [http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=962 "Casey leads Santorum among likely voters, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania poll finds; incumbent's momentum has stalled."] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071223100239/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=962 |date=December 23, 2007 }} September 26, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007. An October 18, 2006 poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports showed Casey with a similar double-digit lead. In the Rasmussen poll, only 46% of voters surveyed had a favorable view of Santorum, while 57% of voters viewed Casey favorably.Rasmussen Reports. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/October%202006/PennsylvaniaSenate1016.htm "Pennsylvania Senate: Santorum trailing by 13."] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20061019022340/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/October%202006/PennsylvaniaSenate1016.htm |date=October 19, 2006 }} October 18, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.

== Negative advertisements ==

At least one of Santorum's television ads called into question his campaign's use of the facts regarding Casey and people who had donated money to the Casey campaign.RickSantorum.com. [http://www.ricksantorum.com/Multimedia/MMPlayer_Set.aspx?ID=1133&TypeID=1 "Corner Bar."] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20061018193801/http://www.ricksantorum.com//Multimedia/MMPlayer_Set.aspx?ID=1133&TypeID=1 |date=18 October 18, 2006 }} September 13, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007. The ad, which aired in September, showed several men seated around a table, while talking amongst themselves and smoking cigars, inside a jail cell. While none of the figures, who were played by actors, were named personally, the narrator provided the job descriptions, previous donations to Casey, and ethical and/or legal troubles of each. The Santorum campaign later provided the names of the people portrayed. An editorial in Casey's hometown newspaper, The Times-Tribune, pointed out that all but one of the contributions "[was] made to Casey campaigns when he was running for other offices, at which time none of the contributors were known to be under investigation for anything."{{cite news |title=Santorum hurls the low hard one |url=http://www.thetimes-tribune.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17200385&BRD=2185&PAG=461&dept_id=418218&rfi=6 |work=The Scranton Times-Tribune |date=15 September 2006 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070927000600/http://www.thetimes-tribune.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17200385&BRD=2185&PAG=461&dept_id=418218&rfi=6 |archive-date=2007-09-27 |url-status=dead}} In fact, two of the persons cited in the Santorum campaign ad had actually given contributions to Santorum's 2006 Senate campaign. Another of the figures portrayed had died in 2004. Political scientist Larry Sabato called the ad "over the top" and suspected that the fallout would hurt Santorum.{{cite news |last1=Eichel |first1=Larry |title=Santorum ad impugns ethics of Casey 'team'. It portrays investigated men. None, however, has a formal campaign role |url=http://articles.philly.com/2006-09-14/news/25413197_1_larry-smar-santorum-democrat-bob-casey |access-date=2019-12-16 |work=The Philadelphia Inquirer |date=14 September 2006 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160130193720/http://articles.philly.com/2006-09-14/news/25413197_1_larry-smar-santorum-democrat-bob-casey |archive-date=2016-01-30 |url-status=dead}}

=Debates=

  • [https://www.c-span.org/video/?194136-1/pennsylvania-senate-debate Complete video of debate], September 3, 2006
  • [https://www.c-span.org/video/?194793-1/pennsylvania-senate-debate Complete video of debate], October 12, 2006
  • [https://www.c-span.org/video/?194865-1/pennsylvania-senate-debate Complete video of debate], October 16, 2006

= Predictions =

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
Source

! Ranking

! As of

align=left | The Cook Political Report{{cite web | title=2006 Senate Race Ratings for November 6, 2006 | url=https://cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2006_sen_ratings_nov6.pdf | website=The Cook Political Report | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080605093937/https://cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2006_sen_ratings_nov6.pdf | access-date=September 30, 2021| archive-date=June 5, 2008 }}

| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D|Flip}}

| November 6, 2006

align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball{{cite web | title=Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS | url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2006110601/ | website=Sabato's Crystal Ball | access-date=June 25, 2021}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D|Flip}}

| November 6, 2006

align=left | Rothenberg Political Report{{cite web | title=2006 Senate Ratings | url=https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2006-senate-ratings6 | work=Senate Ratings | publisher=The Rothenberg Political Report | access-date=June 25, 2021}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D|Flip}}

| November 6, 2006

align=left | Real Clear Politics{{cite web | title=Election 2006 | url=https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/election_2006-21.html| publisher=Real Clear Politics | access-date=June 25, 2021}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D|Flip}}

| November 6, 2006

=== Polling ===

class="sortable wikitable" style="text-align:center"
bgcolor=lightgrey

! Source

! Date

! style="width:100px;"| Bob
Casey Jr. (D)

! style="width:100px;"| Rick
Santorum (R)

align=left |Quinnipiac[https://web.archive.org/web/20051017163229/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11379.xml?Releaseid=649 Quinnipiac]

| February 16, 2005

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 46%

| 41%

align=left |SurveyUSA[https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=45925278-98fe-4060-b496-b4dfbaf01f7c SurveyUSA]

| March 8–9, 2005

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 49%

| 42%

align=left |Keystone[https://web.archive.org/web/20160304125826/http://www.pennlive.com/enter/index.ssf?%2Fnews%2Fpatriotnews%2Findex.ssf%3F%2Fbase%2Fnews%2F1111487079138000.xml Keystone]

| March 22, 2005

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 44%

| 43%

align=left |Quinnipiac[https://web.archive.org/web/20051017130527/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11379.xml?ReleaseID=676 Quinnipiac]

| April 23, 2005

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 49%

| 35%

align=left |Keystone[https://web.archive.org/web/20050619183125/http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyjun05_1.pdf Keystone]

| June 6, 2005

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 44%

| 37%

align=left |Quinnipiac[https://web.archive.org/web/20051017130553/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11379.xml?ReleaseID=810 Quinnipiac]

| July 13, 2005

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 50%

| 39%

align=left |Rasmussen[http://rasmussenreports.com/2005/PA%20Election%202006.htm Rasmussen] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20050726235157/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/PA%20Election%202006.htm |date=July 26, 2005 }}

| July 22, 2005

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 52%

| 41%

align=left |Strategic Vision (R)[https://web.archive.org/web/20051212151924/http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pa_poll_0802.htm Strategic Vision (R)]

| July 31, 2005

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 51%

| 40%

align=left |Strategic Vision (R)[https://web.archive.org/web/20051021235344/http://www.hillnews.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Campaign/091505.html Strategic Vision (R)]

| September 12, 2005

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 52%

| 38%

align=left |Keystone[https://web.archive.org/web/20060806083818/http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keysep05_1.pdf Keystone]

| September 13, 2005

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 50%

| 37%

align=left |Quinnipiac[https://web.archive.org/web/20110605030849/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11385.xml?ReleaseID=838 Quinnipiac]

| October 3, 2005

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 52%

| 34%

align=left |Strategic Vision (R)[https://web.archive.org/web/20051024005419/http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pa_poll_1019.htm Strategic Vision (R)]

| October 16, 2005

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 52%

| 36%

align=left |Keystone[http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/news/local/13130219.htm Keystone]

| November 10, 2005

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 51%

| 35%

align=left |Rasmussen[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Pennsylvania%20Senate%20Nov%2010.htm Rasmussen] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20051124111822/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Pennsylvania%20Senate%20Nov%2010.htm |date=November 24, 2005 }}

| November 10, 2005

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 54%

| 34%

align=left |Strategic Vision (R)[https://web.archive.org/web/20051125091136/http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pa_poll_1116.htm Strategic Vision (R)]

| November 16, 2005

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 51%

| 36%

align=left |Quinnipiac[https://web.archive.org/web/20110605005943/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11385.xml?ReleaseID=858 Quinnipiac]

| December 13, 2005

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 50%

| 38%

align=left |Strategic Vision (R)[https://web.archive.org/web/20051226120927/http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pa_poll_1221.htm Strategic Vision (R)]

| December 18, 2005

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 50%

| 39%

align=left |Rasmussen[https://web.archive.org/web/20060208161258/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Pennsylvania%20Senate%20January%2015.htm Rasmussen]

| January 15, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 53%

| 38%

align=left |Strategic Vision (R)[https://web.archive.org/web/20060207000618/http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pa_poll_012506.htm Strategic Vision (R)]

| January 25, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 50%

| 40%

align=left |Keystone[https://web.archive.org/web/20060223070220/http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyfeb06_1.pdf Keystone]

| February 9, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 50%

| 39%

align=left |Quinnipiac[https://web.archive.org/web/20060302082829/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11385.xml?ReleaseID=873 Quinnipiac]

| February 13, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 51%

| 36%

align=left |Rasmussen[https://web.archive.org/web/20060308081717/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Pennsylvania%20Senate%20February.htm Rasmussen]

| February 16, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 52%

| 36%

align=left |Muhlenberg College[https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=42200603020 Muhlenberg College]

| March 2, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 49%

| 37%

align=left |Mansfield University[https://web.archive.org/web/20060806030456/http://www.mansfield.edu/news/MU%20STATE%20SURVEY%202006.pdf Mansfield University]

| March 7, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 45%

| 31%

align=left |Rasmussen[https://web.archive.org/web/20060515210021/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/March%202006/Pennsylvania%20Senate%20March.htm Rasmussen]

| March 14, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 48%

| 38%

align=left |Rasmussen[https://web.archive.org/web/20060407220751/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/March%202006/Pennsylvania%20Senate%20March%20Followup.htm Rasmussen]

| March 29, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 50%

| 41%

align=left |Quinnipiac[https://web.archive.org/web/20060413223316/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11385.xml?ReleaseID=900 Quinnipiac]

| April 6, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 48%

| 37%

align=left |Strategic Vision (R)[https://web.archive.org/web/20060417235815/http://strategicvision.biz/political/pa_poll_041306.htm Strategic Vision (R)]

| April 13, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 50%

| 40%

align=left |Rasmussen[https://web.archive.org/web/20060512161208/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/April%202006/Pennsylvania%20Senate%20April.htm Rasmussen]

| April 20, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 51%

| 38%

align=left |Muhlenberg/Morning Call[https://web.archive.org/web/20060501080116/http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/state/all-callpoll0426,0,7923293.story?coll=all-news-hed Muhlenberg/Morning Call]

| April 26, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 46%

| 38%

align=left |Keystone[https://web.archive.org/web/20060811230846/http://www.fandm.edu/keystonepoll.xml Keystone]

| May 4, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 47%

| 41%

align=left |Strategic Vision (R)[https://web.archive.org/web/20060602182423/http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pa_poll_051006.htm Strategic Vision (R)]

| May 10, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 49%

| 41%

align=left |Quinnipiac[https://web.archive.org/web/20060602182329/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11379.xml?ReleaseID=911 Quinnipiac]

| May 11, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 49%

| 36%

align=left |Rasmussen[https://web.archive.org/web/20060602005312/http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/May%202006/paSenateMay.htm Rasmussen]

| May 22, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 56%

| 33%

align=left |American Research Group[https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=42200605250 American Research Group]

| May 25, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 54%

| 41%

align=left |Strategic Vision (R)[https://web.archive.org/web/20060615184733/http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pa_poll_061506.htm Strategic Vision (R)]

| June 15, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 49%

| 40%

align=left |Rasmussen[https://web.archive.org/web/20061019220446/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/June%202006/PennsylvaniaSenate.htm Rasmussen]

| June 19, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 52%

| 37%

align=left |Quinnipiac[https://web.archive.org/web/20060814143615/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11385.xml?ReleaseID=927 Quinnipiac]

| June 21, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 52%

| 34%

align=left |Strategic Vision (R)[https://web.archive.org/web/20060807054740/http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pa_poll_072006.htm Strategic Vision (R)]

| July 20, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 50%

| 40%

align=left |Rasmussen[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/July%202006/pennsylvaniaSenate.htm Rasmussen] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060830220816/http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/July%202006/pennsylvaniaSenate.htm |date=August 30, 2006 }}

| July 26, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 50%

| 39%

align=left |Muhlenberg College[https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=42200608050 Muhlenberg College]

| August 5, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 45%

| 39%

align=left |Quinnipiac[https://web.archive.org/web/20060820123804/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11379.xml?ReleaseID=946 Quinnipiac]

| August 15, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 47%

| 40%

align=left |Benenson Strategy Group (D)[https://web.archive.org/web/20160306142608/http://www.dscc.org/news/roundup/20060822_casey/index.htm Benenson Strategy Group (D)]

| August 16, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 51%

| 37%

align=left |Strategic Vision (R)[https://web.archive.org/web/20060901023619/http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pa_poll_081706.htm Strategic Vision (R)]

| August 17, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 47%

| 41%

align=left |Rasmussen[https://web.archive.org/web/20060830173847/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/August%202006/PennsylvaniaSenate.htm Rasmussen]

| August 22, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 48%

| 40%

align=left |Keystone[https://web.archive.org/web/20060901124446/http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyaug06_mfr.pdf Keystone]

| August 24, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 44%

| 39%

align=left |USA Today/Gallup[http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_race-1.html USA Today/Gallup]

| August 27, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 56%

| 38%

align=left |Keystone[http://go.philly.com/keystone Keystone] {{Dead link|date=August 2019 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}

| September 18, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 45%

| 38%

align=left |Princeton Research Associates[https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=42200609181 Princeton Research Associates]

| September 18, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 52%

| 31%

align=left |Rasmussen[https://web.archive.org/web/20061003060311/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/September%202006/PennsylvaniaSenate.htm Rasmussen]

| September 20, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 49%

| 39%

align=left |Temple/Philadelphia Inquirer[http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/local/15592480.htm Temple/Philadelphia Inquirer]

| September 24, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 49%

| 39%

align=left |Quinnipiac[https://web.archive.org/web/20060928045408/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11379.xml?ReleaseID=962 Quinnipiac]

| September 26, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 54%

| 40%

align=left |Strategic Vision (R)[https://web.archive.org/web/20061006154111/http://strategicvision.biz/political/pa_poll_092806.htm Strategic Vision (R)]

| September 28, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 50%

| 40%

align=left |Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC[http://www.realcities.com/multimedia/nationalchannel/archive/news/polls/POLL-Monday-PA.pdf Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC]

| October 2, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 49%

| 40%

align=left |Rasmussen[https://web.archive.org/web/20061011232757/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/October%202006/PennsylvaniaSenate.htm Rasmussen]

| October 5, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 50%

| 37%

align=left |Zogby International/Reuters[https://web.archive.org/web/20061010213955/http://elections.us.reuters.com/top/news/usnN04395614.html Zogby International/Reuters]

| October 5, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 48%

| 36%

align=left |Muhlenberg/Morning Call[https://web.archive.org/web/20061018081855/http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-mcpoll1009-cn,0,4848498.story Muhlenberg/Morning Call]

| October 8, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 46%

| 41%

align=left |Rasmussen[https://web.archive.org/web/20061019022340/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/October%202006/PennsylvaniaSenate1016.htm Rasmussen]

| October 16, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 55%

| 43%

align=left |Democracy Corps[https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=42200610170 Democracy Corps]

| October 17, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 54%

| 37%

align=left |Strategic Vision (R)[https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=42200610230 Strategic Vision (R)]

| October 23, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 49%

| 42%

align=left |West Chester University[https://web.archive.org/web/20070927023607/http://www.whyy.org/news/poll.pdf West Chester University]

| October 27, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 50%

| 39%

align=left |Rasmussen[https://web.archive.org/web/20070228125001/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/October%202006/PennsylvaniaSenate1028.htm Rasmussen]

| October 28, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 55%

| 42%

align=left |Temple/Philadelphia Inquirer[http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/local/states/pennsylvania/15877763.htm Temple/Philadelphia Inquirer]

| October 29, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 54%

| 38%

align=left |Strategic Vision (R)[https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=42200610300 Strategic Vision (R)]

| October 30, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 49%

| 39%

align=left |Quinnipiac[https://web.archive.org/web/20110605030649/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x19651.xml Quinnipiac]

| November 1, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 52%

| 42%

align=left |Keystone[http://www.pittsburghlive.com/images/video/2006_pdfs/Electpoll1101.pdf Keystone] {{Dead link|date=August 2019 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}

| November 1, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 53%

| 38%

align=left |Reuters/Zogby International[https://web.archive.org/web/20070224182734/http://elections.us.reuters.com/top/news/usnN01194336.html Reuters/Zogby International]

| November 2, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 48%

| 40%

align=left |Muhlenberg/Morning Call[https://web.archive.org/web/20070212033343/http://www.mcall.com/sports/football/all-a1_5pollnov03,0,4103665.story?coll=all-sportsmorefootball-hed Muhlenberg/Morning Call]

| November 3, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 51%

| 43%

align=left |Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC[http://www.realcities.com/multimedia/nationalchannel/archive/mcw/pdf/110506_pennsylvania_poll.pdf Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC]

| November 5, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 52%

| 39%

align=left |Strategic Vision (R)[https://web.archive.org/web/20061201231252/http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pa_poll_110606.htm Strategic Vision (R)]

| November 6, 2006

| {{party shading/Democratic}} | 52%

| 40%

= Results =

{{Election box begin

| title = General election results[http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=12&ElectionID=24 Commonwealth of PA - Elections Information] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080529001955/http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=12&ElectionID=24 |date=May 29, 2008 }}}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link

| party = Democratic Party (United States)

| candidate = Bob Casey Jr.

| votes = 2,392,984

| percentage = 58.64%

| change = +13.2%

}}

{{Election box candidate with party link

| party = Republican Party (United States)

| candidate = Rick Santorum (incumbent)

| votes = 1,684,778

| percentage = 41.28%

| change = -11.1%

}}

{{Election box write-in with party link

| votes = 3,281

| percentage = 0.08%

| change = N/A

}}

{{Election box total

| votes = 4,081,043

| percentage = 100.00%

| change = N/A

}}

{{Election box gain with party link no swing

|winner = Democratic Party (United States)

|loser = Republican Party (United States)

|swing = -24.4%

}}

{{Election box end}}

At 9:45 PM EST on Election Night, Santorum called Casey to concede defeat.Carrie Budoff and Emilie Lounsberry. The Philadelphia Inquirer. [http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/15954118.htm "Sen. Santorum loses in a landslide."] November 8, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.

==Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic==

==By congressional district==

Bob Casey Jr won 14 of 19 congressional districts, including four districts which elected Republicans to the House.{{cite web|url=https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1411441324574887938|title=Twitter}}

class=wikitable
District

! Casey Jr.

! Santorum

! Representative

align=center

! {{party shading/Democratic}}|1st

| 87.7%

| 12.3%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Bob Brady

align=center

! rowspan=2 {{party shading/Democratic}}|2nd

| rowspan=2|89.6%

| rowspan=2|10.4%

align=center

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Chaka Fattah

align=center

! {{party shading/Democratic}}|3rd

| 54.0%

| 46.0%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Phil English

align=center

! rowspan=2 {{party shading/Democratic}}|4th

| rowspan=2|54.9%

| rowspan=2|45.1%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Melissa Hart (109th Congress)

align=center

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Jason Altmire (110th Congress)

align=center

! rowspan=1 {{party shading/Republican}}|5th

| rowspan=1|49.9%

| rowspan=1|50.1%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|John E. Peterson

align=center

! {{party shading/Democratic}}|6th

| 58.5%

| 41.5%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Jim Gerlach

align=center

! rowspan=2 {{party shading/Democratic}}|7th

| rowspan=2|59.1%

| rowspan=2|40.9%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Curt Weldon (109th Congress)

align=center

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Joe Sestak (110th Congress)

align=center

! rowspan=2 {{party shading/Democratic}}|8th

| rowspan=2|58.8%

| rowspan=2|41.2%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Mike Fitzpatrick (109th Congress)

align=center

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Patrick Murphy (110th Congress)

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|9th

| 44.9%

| 55.1%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Bill Shuster

align=center

! rowspan=2 {{party shading/Republican}}|10th

| rowspan=2|49.1%

| rowspan=2|50.9%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Don Sherwood (109th Congress)

align=center

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Chris Carney (110th Congress)

align=center

! {{party shading/Democratic}}|11th

| 62.3%

| 37.7%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Paul Kanjorski

align=center

! {{party shading/Democratic}}|12th

| 62.9%

| 37.1%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|John Murtha

align=center

! {{party shading/Democratic}}|13th

| 63.0%

| 37.0%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Allyson Schwartz

align=center

! {{party shading/Democratic}}|14th

| 76.4%

| 23.6%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Mike Doyle

align=center

! {{party shading/Democratic}}|15th

| 56.9%

| 43.1%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Charlie Dent

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|16th

| 45.8%

| 54.2%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Joe Pitts

align=center

! {{party shading/Democratic}}|17th

| 51.3%

| 48.7%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Tim Holden

align=center

! {{party shading/Democratic}}|18th

| 55.2%

| 44.8%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Tim Murphy

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|19th

| 45.6%

| 54.4%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Todd R. Platts

See also

References

{{Reflist}}