2007 FT3

{{short description|Lost risk–listed hazardous near-Earth asteroid}}

{{DISPLAYTITLE:{{mp|2007 FT|3}}}}

{{Infobox planet

| minorplanet = yes

| background = #FFC2E0

| name = {{mp|2007 FT|3}}

| discovery_ref =

| discoverer = Mt. Lemmon Survey

| discovered = 20 March 2007

| mpc_name = {{mp|2007 FT|3}}

| mp_category = {{Hlist

| Lost

| NEO

| Apollo

| PHA

| risk listed

}}

| orbit_ref =

| epoch = 21 March 2007 (JD 2454180.5)

| uncertainty = 9

| observation_arc = 1.2 days

| moid = {{Convert|0.01|AU|e6km|abbr=unit}} ?

| jupiter_moid = {{Convert|3.83|AU|e6km|abbr=unit}} ?

| aphelion = {{val|1.48|0.02|ul=AU}} (Q)

| perihelion = {{val|0.782|0.007|u=AU}} (q)

| semimajor = {{val|1.13|0.02|u=AU}} (a)

| eccentricity = {{val|0.308|0.006}} (e)

| period = {{val|1.2|0.03|u=years}}

| inclination = {{val|26.9|0.43|u=°}} (i)

| asc_node = {{val|9.9|0.2|u=°}} (Ω)

| mean_anomaly = {{val|298|3|ul=°}} (M)

| arg_peri = {{val|277|2|u=°}} (ω)

| avg_speed = 28.4 km/s{{efn|name=speed}}

| dimensions = {{Ubl

| ~{{convert|340|m|sigfig=2|abbr=on}}?

| 270–590 meters

}}

| abs_magnitude = 20?

}}

{{mp|2007 FT|3}} (also written 2007 FT3) is a lost asteroid with a short observation arc of 1.2 days that cannot be recovered with targeted observations and awaits serendipitous survey observations. It has a poorly constrained orbit and has not been seen since 2007. It was first observed on 20 March 2007 when the asteroid was estimated to be {{convert|0.19|+/-|0.01|AU|e6km|abbr=unit|lk=in}} from Earth and had a solar elongation of 107 degrees. {{mp|2007 FT|3}} is the fourth largest asteroid with better than a 1-in-2 million cumulative chance of impacting Earth after (29075) 1950 DA, 1979 XB, and 101955 Bennu. With a cumulative Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale of -2.63, the poorly known orbit and assumed size place {{mp|2007 FT|3}} third on an unconstrained listing of the Sentry Risk Table.

2013 virtual impactor

The 2 October 2013 virtual impactor did not occur. The uncertainty region of ± 330 million kilometers wrapped around a large portion of the asteroid's orbit so that the asteroid could have been numerous different distances from the Earth.

2019 virtual impactor

The 3 October 2019 virtual impactor did not occur. The poorly constrained nominal orbit suggested that the closest approach the asteroid would make to Earth in 2019 was in late March at a distance of {{convert|0.14|AU|km mi|abbr=on}}. But the line of variation (LOV) for this asteroid was hundreds of millions of kilometers long.

There was an estimated 1 in 11 million chance of the asteroid impacting Earth on 3 October 2019. The nominal JPL Horizons 3 October 2019 Earth distance was {{convert|0.93|AU|km mi|abbr=on}} with a 3-sigma uncertainty of {{Nowrap|± 620 million km}}. NEODyS listed the nominal 3 October 2019 Earth distance as {{convert|0.95|AU|km mi|abbr=on}}.

2024 virtual impactor

The 3 October 2024 virtual impactor did not occur. Since the asteroid has a short observation arc and the uncertainty in the orbit of the asteroid intersects Earth's orbit, simulations can not rule out the asteroid and Earth being at the same point in space on 3 October 2024. The nominal orbit suggests that closest approach the asteroid will make to Earth in 2024 will not be until the end of December when it may be ~1 AU from Earth (the same distance the Sun is from Earth). But the line of variation (LOV) for this asteroid is hundreds of millions of kilometers long.

With a short 1.2 day observation arc, the Sentry Risk Table shows an estimated 1 in 11 million chance of the asteroid impacting Earth on 2 October 2024, which is 1,900 times lower than the background threat.{{efn|name=background2024}} The nominal JPL Horizons 2 October 2024 Earth distance is {{convert|1.7|AU|km mi|abbr=on}} with a 3-sigma uncertainty of {{Nowrap|± 500 million km}}. NEODyS lists the nominal 2 October 2024 Earth distance as {{convert|1.7|AU|km mi|abbr=on}}.

class="wikitable sortable" style="font-size: 0.9em;" \|+Virtual impactors (past and future) ! Date ! Impact probability (1 in) ! JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) ! NEODyS nominal geocentric distance (AU) ! MPC nominal geocentric distance (AU) ! Find_Orb nominal geocentric distance (AU) ! uncertainty region
bgcolor=#c2c2c2 \|2013-10-02	1.9 billion	{{Convert\|0.94\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit\|lk=on}}	{{Convert\|1.0\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Convert\|1.1\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Convert\|1.2\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Nowrap\|± 330 million km}}
bgcolor=#c2c2c2 \|2019-10-03	11 million	{{Convert\|0.93\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Convert\|0.95\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Convert\|1.3\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Convert\|1.4\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Nowrap\|± 620 million km}}
bgcolor=#c2c2c2 \|2024-10-03	11 million	{{Convert\|1.7\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Convert\|1.7\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Convert\|2.0\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Convert\|2.0\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Nowrap\|± 500 million km}}

Notes

{{notelist|refs=

{{efn|name=background2024|Palermo Scale for 2024 is −3.27 and 10^3.27 {{=}} 1862.}}

{{efn|name=speed|1={{nowrap|1=v = 42.1219 {{radic|1/r − 0.5/a}}}}, where r is the distance from the Sun, and a is the major semi-axis. Average velocity is at r=a=1.1 AU.}}

}}

References

{{Reflist|refs=

{{cite web

|title=MPEC 2007-F60: 2007 FT3

|publisher=IAU Minor Planet Center

|date=2007-03-21

|url=https://minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K07/K07F60.html

|accessdate=2019-08-15}} (K07F03T)

{{cite web

|title=Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2007 FT3

|publisher=NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office

|url=https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2007%20FT3

|archive-url=https://archive.today/20181230025646/https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html%23?des=2007%20FT3

|archive-date=2018-12-30

|url-status=live

|accessdate=2019-08-15

}} [https://web.archive.org/web/20121001104522/http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2007ft3.html (Wayback Machine 2012)]

{{cite web

|title= Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring

|publisher=NASA/JPL Center for NEO Studies

|url=https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/

|access-date=2024-09-24}} (Use Unconstrained Settings to reveal impact probability below 1e-6)

{{cite web

|type=last observation: 2007-03-21; arc: 1 day

|title=JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2007 FT3)

|url=https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2007FT3&view=OPC

|publisher=Jet Propulsion Laboratory

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190815034444/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007FT3;cad=1

|archive-date=2019-08-15

|url-status=live

|accessdate=2019-08-15

}}

{{cite web

|title = 2007 FT3

|work = Minor Planet Center

|url = https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/db_search/show_object?object_id=2007+FT3

|accessdate = 11 January 2020}}

{{cite web

|title=2007FT3 Ephemerides for 2019

|publisher=NEODyS (Near Earth Objects{{Snd}} Dynamic Site)

|url=https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2007FT3&oc=500&y0=2019&m0=1&d0=1&h0=0&mi0=0&y1=2019&m1=12&d1=31&h1=0&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=days

|archive-url=https://archive.today/20190815050634/https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2007FT3&oc=500&y0=2019&m0=1&d0=1&h0=0&mi0=0&y1=2019&m1=12&d1=31&h1=0&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=days

|archive-date=2019-08-15

|url-status=live

|accessdate=2019-08-15}}

{{cite web

|title=2007FT3 Ephemerides for 2024

|publisher=NEODyS (Near Earth Objects{{Snd}} Dynamic Site)

|url=https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2007FT3&oc=500&y0=2024&m0=1&d0=1&h0=0&mi0=0&y1=2024&m1=12&d1=31&h1=0&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=days

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210404094254/https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2007FT3&oc=500&y0=2024&m0=1&d0=1&h0=0&mi0=0&y1=2024&m1=12&d1=31&h1=0&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=days

|archive-date=2021-04-04

|url-status=live

|accessdate=2021-04-04}}

{{cite web

|title=NEODyS-2 Risk List

|publisher=NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site)

|url=https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=4.1

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181120220955/https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=4.1

|archive-date=2018-11-20 |url-status=live

|accessdate=2021-03-08}}

Go to [https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi?find_body=1&body_group=sb&sstr=2007FT3 JPL Horizons.] Table Settings: only need "20. Observer range & range-rate" AND "39. Range & range-rate 3-sigmas".
RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (Soln.date: 6 April 2017 generates RNG_3sigma = {{val|620915473}} for 3 October 2019.)

{{cite web

|title=Horizons Batch for 2024-10-02 Virtual Impactor

|publisher=JPL Horizons

|url=https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272007+FT3%27&START_TIME=%272024-10-02%27&STOP_TIME=%272024-10-03%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27

|accessdate=2021-04-10}} RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#7/Soln.date: 2017-Apr-06 generates RNG_3sigma = {{val|487811582}} for 2024-Oct-02.)

{{cite web

|title=MPC Ephemeris Service

|publisher=IAU Minor Planet Center

|url=https://minorplanetcenter.net//iau/MPEph/MPEph.html

|accessdate=2021-04-08}}

{{cite web

|title=Find_Orb for 2024-10-02

|publisher=Project Pluto

|url=https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=2007+FT3&year=2024-10-02&n_steps=1&stepsize=1

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210420152913/https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=2007+FT3&year=2024-10-02&n_steps=1&stepsize=1

|archive-date=2021-04-20

|url-status=live

|accessdate=2021-04-20}}

}}

External links

{{NeoDys|2007FT3}}
{{ESA-SSA|2007FT3}}
{{JPL small body}}

Category:Lost minor planets

Category:Minor planet object articles (unnumbered)

Category:Discoveries by MLS

Category:Potential impact events caused by near-Earth objects

20070320

class="wikitable sortable" style="font-size: 0.9em;" \|+Virtual impactors (past and future) ! Date ! Impact probability (1 in) ! JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) ! NEODyS nominal geocentric distance (AU) ! MPC nominal geocentric distance (AU) ! Find_Orb nominal geocentric distance (AU) ! uncertainty region
bgcolor=#c2c2c2 \|2013-10-02	1.9 billion	{{Convert\|0.94\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit\|lk=on}}	{{Convert\|1.0\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Convert\|1.1\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Convert\|1.2\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Nowrap\|± 330 million km}}
bgcolor=#c2c2c2 \|2019-10-03	11 million	{{Convert\|0.93\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Convert\|0.95\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Convert\|1.3\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Convert\|1.4\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Nowrap\|± 620 million km}}
bgcolor=#c2c2c2 \|2024-10-03	11 million	{{Convert\|1.7\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Convert\|1.7\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Convert\|2.0\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Convert\|2.0\|AU\|e6km\|abbr=unit}}	{{Nowrap\|± 500 million km}}

2007 FT3

2013 virtual impactor

2019 virtual impactor

2024 virtual impactor

See also

Notes

References

External links