Sentry (monitoring system)
{{Use dmy dates|date=May 2019}}
{{short description|JPL program to monitor the Minor Planet Center's catalog for Earth impacts}}
File:2020VV risk corridor.png risk corridor for the obsolete virtual impactor of 12 October 2033.]]
Sentry is an automated impact prediction system started in 2002 and operated by the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. It continually monitors the most up-to-date asteroid catalog for possibilities of future impact with Earth over the next 100+ years. Whenever a potential impact is detected, it will be analyzed and the results immediately published by CNEOS. However, alerts do not imply certainty about future impacts, as the small amounts of optical data that can trigger an alert are not enough to conclusively identify an impact years in the future. In contrast, eliminating an entry on the risk page is a negative prediction (a prediction of where it will not be).
Scientists warn against worrying about the possibility of impact with an object based on only a few weeks of optical data that show a possible Earth encounter years from now. Sometimes, it cannot even be said for certain what side of the Sun such an object will be at the time of the listed virtual impactor date. For example, even though {{mpl|2005 ED|224}} had a 1-in-500,000 chance of impacting Earth on 11 March 2023, its most likely position at that date was farther away than the Sun. Most objects in the Sentry Risk Table have an observation arc of less than 14 days, making their positions highly uncertain, and have not been observed for years.
There are 1888 near-Earth asteroids listed in the risk table and 41,848 virtual impact dates, so for each asteroid in the risk table, there is an average of about 22 virtual impact dates. Only about 21 objects in the table are large enough, with a diameter greater than about 140 meters, to be considered potentially hazardous objects. The average size of an object on the default page of Sentry is 120 meters, with an average impact probability of about 1 in 500. More eccentric orbits (such as {{mp|2015 RD|36}}) that extend to nearly the orbit of Jupiter can make atmospheric entry at velocities of ~{{Convert|40|km/s|mi/s|abbr=unit}}.
Sentry Risk Table
| class="wikitable sortable floatright" style="text-align:center; font-size:0.9em;"
|+Objects with better than a 1/500 (0.2%) cumulative chance of impact ! Object ! Cumulative ! Date of ! Estimated ! Observation | ||||
| {{mpl|2010 RF|12}} | 10% | 2095-09-05 | 7 | 4374 |
| {{mpl|2020 CD|3}} | 2.5% | 2082-09-09 | 2 | 742 |
| {{mpl|2006 RH|120}} | 1.3% | 2044-02-08 | 4 | 281 |
| {{mp|2017 WT|28}} | 1.2% | 2104-11-24 | 8 | 19 |
| {{mp|2024 BY|15}} | 0.94% | 2095-03-19 | 15 | 49 |
| {{mp|2020 VW}} | 0.70% | 2074-11-02 | 7 | 14 |
| {{mpl|2006 JY|26}} | 0.50% | 2074-05-03 | 7 | 3 |
| {{mp|2020 CQ|1}} | 0.46% | 2070-02-03 | 6 | 29 |
| {{mp|2022 SX|55}} | 0.40% | 2035-09-17 | 3 | 1 |
| {{mpl|2022 NX|1}} | 0.32% | 2075-12-03 | 8 | 142 |
| {{mpl|2000 SG|344}} | 0.27% | 2071-09-16 | 37 | 507 |
| {{mpl|2020 VV}} | 0.23% | 2056-10-11 | 12 | 61 |
| {{mp|2017 LD}} | 0.22% | 2079-06-10 | 11 | 45 |
| {{mp|2000 LG|6}} | 0.21% | 2094-05-27 | 5 | 2 |
The Impact Risk page lists a number of lost minor planets that are, for all practical purposes, permanent residents of the risk page; their removal may depend upon a serendipitous rediscovery. Lost asteroid 1979 XB has been on the list since the list's inception. {{mpl|2007 FT|3}} and {{mpl|2014 MV|67}} with their very short 1-day observation arcs have missed virtual impactor dates as they were likely quite distant from the Earth at the time. {{mpl|1997 XR|2}} was serendipitously rediscovered in 2006 after being lost for more than 8 years. {{mpl|2004 BX|159}} was determined to be a harmless main belt asteroid in 2014. Some objects on the Sentry Risk Table, such as {{mpl|2000 SG|344}}, might even be artificial.{{cite web |title=Much Ado about 2000 SG344 |url=https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2000/ast06nov_2 |website=NASA Science |publisher=NASA |access-date=27 September 2023}}
{{mpl|2010 RF|12}} is the asteroid with greatest probability (10%) of impacting Earth, but is only ~7 meters in diameter. The only numbered objects with observation arcs of several years are (29075) 1950 DA and 101955 Bennu. Notable asteroids removed from Sentry include (most recently removed listed first): 99942 Apophis, (410777) 2009 FD, {{mpl|2006 QV|89}}, {{mpl|2017 XO|2}}, {{mpl|1994 WR|12}}, {{mpl|2007 VK|184}}, {{mpl|2013 BP|73}}, {{mpl|2008 CK|70}}, {{mpl|2013 TV|135}}, {{mpl|2011 BT|15}}, 367943 Duende, and {{mpl|2011 AG|5}}.
{{As of|2025|02}}, of the 191 asteroids with better than a 1-in-10,000 chance of impacting Earth only (29075) 1950 DA and 101955 Bennu are larger than 50 meters in diameter.
{{As of|2025|03}}, the soonest virtual impactor of an asteroid larger than 50 meters in diameter with a better than 1:1-million chance of impact is {{mpl|2022 PX|1}} on 11 August 2040 with a 1:{{val|310000}} chance of impact. It is estimated to be 120-meters in diameter, has a short observation arc of 7-days, and is expected to be approximately {{convert|1.75|AU|e6km|abbr=unit|lk=on}} from Earth on 11 August 2040. The impact scenario is outside the 3-sigma uncertainty region of {{Nowrap|± 242 million km}}.
{{anchor|2025}}
The asteroid with the greatest chance of impacting Earth in 2025 is {{mpl|2009 VA}} (6-meters in diameter) with less than a 1-day observation arc. It has a 1:48,000 chance of impact on 06 November 2023, but is expected to be around {{Convert|0.3|AU|e6km|abbr=unit|lk=on}} from Earth on that date with uncertainty region of ± 900 million km.
With a 24-day observation arc, {{mp|2017 SA|20}} has the most virtual impactors with 1244 virtual impactor dates.[https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2017%20SA20 Sentry: 2017 SA20] (1244 VIs) using 2022-Aug-30 solution
The diameter of most near-Earth asteroids that have not been studied by radar or infrared can generally only be estimated within about a factor of 2 based on the asteroid's absolute magnitude (H). Their mass, consequently, is uncertain by about a factor of 10. For near-Earth asteroids without a well-determined diameter, Sentry assumes a generic albedo of 0.15.
In August 2013, the Sentry Risk Table started using planetary ephemeris (DE431) for all NEO orbit determinations. DE431 (JPL small-body perturber ephemeris: SB431-BIG16) better models the gravitational perturbations of the planets and includes the 16 most massive main-belt asteroids. In April 2021, Sentry transitioned to DE441 which removed the very low impact probability of short-arc 2014 MV67 which had been less than 1:1-billion. The switch to DE441 also briefly added in the harmless Jupiter trojan 2014 ES57 with a very low impact probability of about 1:1-billion.
JPL launched major changes to the website in February 2017 and re-directed the classic page on 10 April 2017.
In 2021 JPL launched Sentry-II which handles the Yarkovsky effect that can significantly change a small asteroid's path over decades and centuries. Sentry-II defaults to an impact pseudo-observation (IOBS) analysis technique that runs an extended orbit-determination filter that tries to converge to an impacting solution compatible with the observational data.
Numbers
File:Potentially Hazardous Asteroids 2013.pngs ]]
{{As of|2025|02}}, there are over 37,000 near-Earth objects of which roughly 1,900 near-Earth asteroids are listed on the risk table. Only around 21 objects on the risk table are large enough to qualify as potentially hazardous objects with a diameter greater than 140 meters (absolute magnitude brighter than 22). About 99% of the objects on the risk table are less than roughly 140 meters in diameter. Roughly 1400 of these risk-listed near-Earth asteroids are estimated to be about the size of the Chelyabinsk meteor or smaller (H>26), which killed no one but had 1,491 indirect injuries. More than 3,300 asteroids have been removed from the risk table since it launched in 2002.
The only two comets that briefly appeared on the Sentry Risk Table are 197P/LINEAR (2003 KV2) and 300P/Catalina (2005 JQ5).
JPL SBDB comparison
The JPL Small-Body Database close approach table lists a linearized uncertainty. Sentry computations explore alternate orbit solutions along the line of variations and account for orbit propagation nonlinearities.
Scout
Sentry's little brother Scout scans recently detected objects on the Minor Planet Center's Near-Earth Object Confirmation Page with designations that are user-assigned and unofficial as they have not been confirmed by additional observations. The impact risk assessment is rated on a scale of 0–4 (negligible, small, modest, moderate, or elevated)."Negligible" (0) is for objects where no impacting solution was identified. "Small" (1) is for objects with a <0.1% chance of impact. "Modest" (2) is for a 0.1-1% chance. "Moderate" (3) is for a 1-10% chance, and "Elevated" (4) is for a >10% chance of impact. Scout is used to help identify imminent impactors. ESA's equivalent to Scout is Meerkat Asteroid Guard.
See also
Notes
{{reflist|group="note"}}
References
{{Reflist
| refs =
|title=Sentry Risk Table
|publisher=NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office
|url=https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/
|access-date=2017-04-13}} (Click "Use Unconstrained Settings" to see how many objects are on the list; H<=22 for list of PHAs)
|date=30 July 2002
|title=Understanding Risk Pages
|publisher=Columbine, Inc. (hohmanntransfer)
|author=Jon Giorgini
|url=http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/by/giorgjon.htm
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20021208202559/http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/by/giorgjon.htm
|url-status=dead
|archive-date=8 December 2002
|access-date=2011-11-21}}
|date=31 Aug 2005
|title=IMPACT RISK ASSESSMENT: AN INTRODUCTION
|publisher=NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office
|url=http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/doc/sentry.html
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20020419174057/http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/doc/sentry.html
|url-status=dead
|archive-date=19 April 2002
|access-date=2011-10-14}}
|title=Sentry Notes
|publisher=NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office
|date=2013-08-12
|url=https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/notes.html
|access-date=2017-04-13}}
|title = Removed Objects
|publisher = NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office
|url = http://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/removed.html
|archive-url = https://archive.today/20170225212225/http://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/removed.html
|archive-date = 2017-02-25
|url-status = live
|access-date = 2017-02-16
}}(Search for "P/" to list comets removed.)
|title=Scout: NEOCP Hazard Assessment
|publisher=NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office
|url=https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/scout/intro.html
|access-date=2019-06-26}}
|title=2002 Archive of Sentry Risk Table
|url=http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/ |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20020321092735/http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/ |url-status=dead |archive-date=2002-03-21 }}
|title=2005ED224 Ephemerides for March 2023
|publisher=NEODyS (Near Earth Objects{{Snd}} Dynamic Site)
|url=https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2005ED224&oc=500&y0=2023&m0=3&d0=10&h0=0&mi0=0&y1=2023&m1=3&d1=12&h1=0&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=days
|access-date=2021-03-26}} (Having not been observed since 2005 with an orbital period of 2.6±0.3 years, we do not know where on its orbit 2005 ED224 is.)
|title=Sentry Risk Table: 2015 RD36
|type=using 2022-Sep-13 solution
|publisher=NASA JPL CNEOS
|url=https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2015%20RD36
|access-date=2022-10-02 }}
|title=VI (Virtual Impactor) Data
|publisher=NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office
|url=https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/vi.html
|access-date=2022-11-09}} Unconstrained Settings, Sort by Date. For objects larger than 50 meters and odds of impact better than 1:1 million also include Impact Probability ≥ 1e-6 and H≤24.
|title=Horizons Batch for 2025-11-06 Virtual Impactor
|publisher=JPL Horizons
|url=https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272009+VA%27&START_TIME=%272025-11-06%27&STOP_TIME=%272025-11-07%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27
|accessdate=2025-02-03}} RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#7/Soln.date: 2021-Apr-15 generates RNG_3sigma = {{val|934114563|u=km}} for 2025-Nov-06.)
|title=JPL Horizons: 2022 PX1 geocentric distance and uncertainty on 11 August 2040
|publisher=JPL Horizons
|url=https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272022+PX1%27&START_TIME=%272040-Aug-11%27&STOP_TIME=%272040-Aug-12%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27
|accessdate=2025-03-13}}
|title=NASA's Next-Generation Asteroid Impact Monitoring System Goes Online
|publisher=NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office
|url=https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasas-next-generation-asteroid-impact-monitoring-system-goes-online
|date=2021-12-06}}
}}
External links
- [https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/intro.html Sentry: Introduction]
- [https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/ Sentry: Impact Risk Data table]
- List of [https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/removed.html objects for which all previously detected potential impacts have been eliminated]
- Similar lists: [https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=4.1 NEODyS CLOMON2] / [https://neo.ssa.esa.int/risk-list ESA NEO Risk List] / [http://www.brera.mi.astro.it/sormano/teca.html Sormano Observatory TECA] / [https://robertinventor.online/booklets/sentry_table_simplified.htm Simplified List]
- [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8M_27st1ZCI&t=142 Asteroid Hazards, Part 3: Finding the Path] – Minor Planet Center on YouTube
- [https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/scout/intro.html Scout: NEOCP Hazard Assessment: Introduction]
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Category:Near-Earth object tracking