2021 Western Australian state election
{{Short description|none}}
{{Use dmy dates|date=March 2021}}
{{Use Australian English|date=November 2024}}
{{Infobox election
| election_name = 2021 Western Australian state election
| country = Western Australia
| type = parliamentary
| ongoing = no
| vote_type = First preference
| previous_election = 2017 Western Australian state election
| previous_year = 2017
| election_date = 13 March 2021
| next_election = 2025 Western Australian state election
| next_year = 2025
| seats_for_election = All 59 seats in the Western Australian Legislative Assembly
and all 36 members in the Western Australian Legislative Council
30 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
| opinion_polls = 2021 Western Australian state election#Opinion polling
| turnout = 1,467,159 (85.46%)
| image_size = 130x130px
| image1 = {{CSS image crop |Image = Mark McGowan headshot.jpg|bSize = 140|cWidth = 130|cHeight = 170|oTop = 5|oLeft = 3|Location = center}}
| leader1 = Mark McGowan
| party1 = Australian Labor Party (Western Australian Branch)
| leader_since1 = {{start date|df=yes|2012|1|23}}
| leaders_seat1 = Rockingham
| last_election1 = 41 seats
| seats_before1 = 40
| seats_needed1 = {{steady}}
| seats1 = 53
| seat_change1 = {{increase}} 12
| popular_vote1 = 846,116
| percentage1 = 59.92%
| swing1 = {{increase}} 17.70
| image2 = {{CSS image crop |Image = Mia Davies MLA.png|bSize = 150|cWidth = 130|cHeight = 170|oTop = 0|oLeft = 5|Location = center}}
| leader2 = Mia Davies
| leader_since2 = {{start date|df=yes|2017|03|21}}
| party2 = National Party of Australia (WA)
| leaders_seat2 = Central Wheatbelt
| last_election2 = 5 seats
| seats_before2 = 6
| seats_needed2 = {{increase}} 24
| seats2 = 4
| seat_change2 = {{decrease}} 1
| popular_vote2 = 56,448
| percentage2 = 4.00%
| swing2 = {{decrease}} 1.40
| image3 = {{CSS image crop |Image = Zak_Kirkup.png|bSize = 150|cWidth = 130|cHeight = 170|oTop = 1|oLeft = 14|Location = center}}
| leader3 = Zak Kirkup
| party3 = Liberal Party of Australia (Western Australian Division)
| leader_since3 = 24 November 2020
| leaders_seat3 = Dawesville
(lost seat)
| last_election3 = 13 seats
| seats_before3 = 13
| seats_needed3 = {{increase}} 17
| seats3 = 2
| seat_change3 = {{decrease}} 11
| popular_vote3 = 300,796
| percentage3 = 21.30%
| swing3 = {{decrease}} 9.90
| 1blank = 2PP
| 1data1 = 69.70%
| 1data3 = 30.30%
| 2blank = 2PP swing
| 2data1 = {{increase}} 14.10
| 2data3 = {{decrease}} 14.10
| map_image = 2021 Western Australian state election.svg
| map_size = 400px
| map_caption = Winning margin by electorate.
| title = Premier
| before_election = Mark McGowan
| before_party = Australian Labor Party (Western Australian Branch)
| after_election = Mark McGowan
| after_party = Australian Labor Party (Western Australian Branch)
| elected_members = elected members
| outgoing_members = outgoing members
}}
The 2021 Western Australian state election was held on Saturday 13 March to elect members to the Parliament of Western Australia, where all 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly and all 36 seats in the Legislative Council were up for election.
The incumbent Labor Government, led by Premier Mark McGowan, won a second consecutive four-year term in office in a historic landslide victory. Their primary challengers were the opposition Liberal Party, led by Opposition Leader Zak Kirkup, and the National Party, led by Mia Davies. Several minor parties also contested the election in the Assembly and Council.
ABC News psephologist Antony Green called the election for the Labor Party 42 minutes after the polls closed, with 0.7% of the vote counted.{{cite web|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-13/wa-election-2021-wa-votes/13245980|title=As it happened: Antony Green calls the election for Labor less than 45 minutes from close of polls|work=ABC News|date=13 March 2021}}{{Cite news|last=Law|first=Peter|date=2021-03-14|title=WA a sea of red in Liberal bloodbath|page=3|work=The Sunday Times|publisher=West Australian Newspapers Limited|quote=Green formally called the election for Labor on ABC at 6.42pm, just 42 minutes after polls closed and with only 0.7 per cent of votes counted.}} Labor won 53 out of 59 of the seats in the Assembly, outdoing its previous record of 41 seats in 2017, whilst the Liberals had a wipeout loss and won only two seats, suffering a 14% two-party preferred swing.{{cite web|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-19/labor-wins-churchlands-as-liberals-reduced-to-two-in-lower-house/100016418|title=WA Election: Sean L'Estrange loses Churchlands, leaving Liberals with just two Lower House seats|work=ABC News|date=19 March 2021}} The Nationals claimed the four remaining seats and became the largest opposition party in the Assembly.
To date, the election is the most decisive result at any Australian state or federal election since Federation in terms of the percentage of lower house seats controlled by the governing party (89.8%),{{Cite web|last=|date=2021-03-12|title=Biggest State Election Landslides|url=https://armariuminterreta.site/2021/03/12/biggest-state-election-landslides/|url-status=live|access-date=2021-04-07|website=Armarium Interreta|language=en-AU|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210312132526/https://armariuminterreta.site/2021/03/12/biggest-state-election-landslides |archive-date=12 March 2021 }} and two-party preferred margin (69.7%–30.3%).{{cite web|url=https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/wa/2021/03/14/west-australian-election-labor-landslide/|title=Mark McGowan claims WA election victory as Liberals all but wiped out|date=14 March 2021|work=The New Daily}} Labor's unprecedented victory extended to the Legislative Council, and the party claimed a majority of the seats in the upper house for the first time.{{cite web|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/guide/lc-results|title=Legislative Council results|work=ABC Elections}}
Candidates were elected to single-member seats in the Legislative Assembly via full-preferential instant-runoff voting. In the Legislative Council, six candidates were elected in each of the six electoral regions through the single transferable vote system with group voting tickets. The Western Australian Electoral Commission conducted the elections.
Results
=Legislative Assembly=
{{see also|Results of the 2021 Western Australian state election (Legislative Assembly)}}
[[File:Western Australian Legislative Assembly 2021 Election.svg|thumb|
Government (53)
{{legend|#F10012|Labor (53)}}
{{legend|#008001|National (4)}}
{{legend|#080CAB|Liberal (2)}}
]]
File:2021 Western Australian state election - Simple Results.svg
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:right; margin-bottom:0"
|+Legislative Assembly (IRV) – Turnout 85.46% (CV){{cite web |title=2021 State General Election Results |url=https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/state/sgelection#/sg2021 |publisher=Western Australian Electoral Commission |access-date=30 March 2021}}{{cite web |title=Party Totals |url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/results/party-totals |website=ABC Elections |publisher=Australian Broadcasting Corporation |access-date=30 March 2021}} ! colspan="7" |File:2021 Western Australian Legislative Assembly.svg |
| colspan="2" style="width:10px" | Party
! style="width:70px;" |Votes ! style="width:40px;" |% ! style="width:50px;" |Swing ! style="width:40px;" |Seats ! +/– |
|---|
| {{Australian party style|Labor|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Labor | 846,116 | 59.92 | {{increase}} 17.72 | 53 | {{Increase}} 13 |
| {{Australian party style|Liberal|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Liberal | 300,796 | 21.30 | {{decrease}} 9.92 | 2 | {{Decrease}} 11 |
| {{Australian party style|Greens}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Greens | 97,713 | 6.92 | {{decrease}} 1.99 | 0 | {{Steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|National|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Nationals | 56,448 | 4.00 | {{decrease}} 1.40 | 4 | {{Decrease}} 2 |
| {{Australian party style|No Mandatory Vaccination}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | No Mandatory Vaccination | 23,178 | 1.64 | New | 0 | {{Steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|Australian Christians}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Australian Christians | 20,869 | 1.48 | {{decrease}} 0.62 | 0 | {{Steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|One Nation}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | One Nation | 17,824 | 1.26 | {{decrease}} 3.67 | 0 | {{Steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|Shooters, Fishers, Farmers}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | 9,669 | 0.69 | {{decrease}} 0.62 | 0 |{{Steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|WAxit}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | WAxit | 7,984 | 0.57 | {{decrease}} 0.43 | 0 |{{Steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|Liberal Democrats}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Liberal Democrats | 7,159 | 0.51 | {{increase}} 0.46 | 0 |{{Steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|Western Australia Party}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Western Australia | 5,276 | 0.37 | {{decrease}} 0.09 | 0 |{{Steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|Legalise Cannabis WA}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Legalise Cannabis | 4,996 | 0.35 | New | 0 |{{Steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|Sustainable Australia}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Sustainable Australia | 1,356 | 0.10 | New | 0 |{{Steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|Socialist Alliance}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Socialist Alliance | 726 | 0.05 | {{steady}} 0 | 0 |{{Steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|Liberals for Climate}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Liberals for Climate | 552 | 0.04 | {{decrease}} 0.13 | 0 |{{Steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|Independent}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Independents | 11,328 | 0.80 | {{decrease}} 1.04 | 0 |{{Steady}} |
| colspan="2" rowspan="1" | Formal votes
| 1,411,990 | 96.24 | {{increase}} 0.78 | | |
| colspan="2" rowspan="1" | Informal votes
| 55,169 | 3.76 | {{decrease}} 0.78 | | |
| colspan="2" rowspan="1" | Total
| 1,467,159 | | | 59 | |
| colspan="2" rowspan="1" | Registered voters / turnout
| 1,716,732 | 85.46 | {{decrease}} 2.06 | | |
| colspan="7" | Two-party-preferred vote{{cite web |last1=Green |first1=Antony |title=Final Two-Party Preferred result for 2021 Western Australian Election |url=https://antonygreen.com.au/final-two-party-preferred-result-for-2021-western-australian-election/ |website=Antony Green's Election Blog |date=30 March 2021 |access-date=30 March 2021}} |
| {{Australian party style|Labor}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Labor | 983,299 | 69.68 | {{nowrap|{{increase}} 14.14}} | | |
| {{Australian party style|Liberal}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Liberal/Nationals | 427,812 | 30.32 | {{decrease}} 14.14 | | |
Although the Liberals and Nationals did not contest the election as a coalition and are separate parties, the two-party-preferred calculation aggregates Labor/Liberal and Labor/Nationals contests.
==Seats changing parties==
| class="wikitable" |
| rowspan="2" | Seat
! colspan="4" | Pre-2021 ! rowspan="2" | Swing ! colspan="4" | Post-2021 |
|---|
| colspan="2" | Party
! Member ! Margin ! Margin ! Member ! colspan="2" | Party |
| Bateman
| {{Australian party style|Liberal}}| | Liberal | style="text-align:right;"| 7.8 | style="text-align:right;"| 14.5 | style="text-align:right;"| 6.7 | Labor | {{Australian party style|Labor}}| |
| Carine
| {{Australian party style|Liberal}}| | Liberal | style="text-align:right;"| 10.2 | style="text-align:right;"| 12.6 | style="text-align:right;"| 2.4 | Labor | {{Australian party style|Labor}}| |
| Churchlands
| {{Australian party style|Liberal}}| | Liberal | style="text-align:right;"| 11.7 | style="text-align:right;"| 12.5 | style="text-align:right;"| 0.8 | Labor | {{Australian party style|Labor}}| |
| Darling Range
| {{Australian party style|Liberal}}| | Liberal | style="text-align:right;"| 3.5* | style="text-align:right;"| 16.5 | style="text-align:right;"| 12.9 | Labor | {{Australian party style|Labor}}| |
| Dawesville
| {{Australian party style|Liberal}}| | Liberal | style="text-align:right;"| 0.8 | style="text-align:right;"| 14.7 | style="text-align:right;"| 13.9 | Labor | {{Australian party style|Labor}}| |
| Geraldton
| {{Australian party style|National}}| | National** | style="text-align:right;"| 1.3 | style="text-align:right;"| 12.9 | style="text-align:right;"| 11.6 | Labor | {{Australian party style|Labor}}| |
| Hillarys
| {{Australian party style|Liberal}}| | Liberal | style="text-align:right;"| 0.4 | style="text-align:right;"| 19.3 | style="text-align:right;"| 19.0 | Labor | {{Australian party style|Labor}}| |
| Kalgoorlie
| {{Australian party style|Liberal}}| | Liberal | style="text-align:right;"| 6.2 | style="text-align:right;"| 18.2 | style="text-align:right;"| 12.0 | Ali Kent | Labor | {{Australian party style|Labor}}| |
| Nedlands
| {{Australian party style|Liberal}}| | Liberal | style="text-align:right;"| 8.0 | style="text-align:right;"| 10.8 | style="text-align:right;"| 2.8 | Labor | {{Australian party style|Labor}}| |
| Riverton
| {{Australian party style|Liberal}}| | Liberal | style="text-align:right;"| 4.2 | style="text-align:right;"| 13.2 | style="text-align:right;"| 9.0 | Labor | {{Australian party style|Labor}}| |
| Scarborough
| {{Australian party style|Liberal}}| | Liberal | style="text-align:right;"| 5.7 | style="text-align:right;"| 16.1 | style="text-align:right;"| 10.4 | Labor | {{Australian party style|Labor}}| |
| South Perth
| {{Australian party style|Liberal}}| | Liberal | style="text-align:right;"| 7.2 | style="text-align:right;"| 17.3 | style="text-align:right;"| 10.1 | Labor | {{Australian party style|Labor}}| |
| Warren-Blackwood
| {{Australian party style|National}}| | National | style="text-align:right;"| 12.8 | style="text-align:right;"| 14.1 | style="text-align:right;"| 1.3 | Labor | {{Australian party style|Labor}}| |
| colspan=10 |Members listed in italics did not contest this election * Darling Range was won by Labor at the 2017 state election, but was regained by the Liberals at a 2018 by-election. The margin here is based on the by-election result. ** Ian Blayney defected from the Liberal Party to the Nationals in 2019. The margin shown here is the two-party margin Blayney achieved as a Liberal at the 2017 state election. |
Labor's victory was built on a near-sweep of Perth. Labor had gone into the election holding 33 of Perth's 43 seats (having lost one at a by-election). It won an additional nine in 2021, some on swings of over 10 percent, leaving Cottesloe as the only non-Labor seat in the capital. Many of Labor's gains came in seats long considered Liberal heartland. For example, Nedlands, the seat of former Liberal premiers Charles and Richard Court, fell to Labor for the first time since its creation in 1930, while South Perth was taken by Labor for the first time since its creation in 1950.
Among the more prominent casualties was Opposition Leader Zak Kirkup, who was heavily defeated in his own seat of Dawesville on a swing of over 14 percent, and former opposition leader Liza Harvey, whose seat of Scarborough fell to a 16 percent swing.
On paper, Labor was left as the only party with official status in the legislature, as no other party won at least five seats. However, McGowan promised that the Nationals would be properly resourced as an opposition, envisaging that they would divide opposition funding with the Liberals.{{cite news|url=https://7news.com.au/politics/labor-pulls-ahead-in-blue-ribbon-wa-seats-c-2381177|title=Labor pulls ahead in blue-ribbon WA seats|author1=Michael Ramsey|publisher=Australian Associated Press|work=Seven News|date=18 March 2021}}
=Legislative Council=
{{see also|Results of the 2021 Western Australian state election (Legislative Council)}}
File:2021 Western Australian Legislative Council.svg (22){{legend|#F10012|Labor (22)}}Opposition (10)
{{legend|#080CAB|Liberal (7)}}{{legend|#008001|National (3)}}Crossbench (4){{legend|#72C342|Legalise Cannabis (2)}}{{legend|#0FC25C|Greens (1)}}{{legend|#FFFD7A|Daylight Saving (1)}}]]
| class="wikitable" style="text-align:right; margin-bottom:0"
|+Legislative Council (STV/GVT) – Turnout 85.50% (CV) ! colspan="7" |File:Western Australia Legislative Council 2021.svg |
| colspan="2" style="width:10px" | Party
! style="width:70px;" |Primary votes ! style="width:40px;" |% ! style="width:45px;" |Swing ! style="width:40px;" |Seats ! +/- |
|---|
| {{Australian party style|Labor|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Labor | 868,374 | 60.34 | {{nowrap|{{increase}} 19.93}} | 22 | {{increase}} 8 |
| {{Australian party style|Liberal|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Liberal | 254,380 | 17.68 | {{decrease}} 9.03 | 7 | {{decrease}} 2 |
| {{Australian party style|Greens|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Greens | 91,849 | 6.38 | {{decrease}} 2.22 | 1 | {{decrease}} 3 |
| {{Australian party style|National|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | National | 40,285 | 2.80 | {{decrease}} 1.63 | 3 | {{decrease}} 1 |
| {{Australian party style|Legalise Cannabis WA|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Legalise Cannabis | 28,473 | 1.98 | New | 2 | {{increase}} 2 |
| {{Australian party style|Christians|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Australian Christians | 28,051 | 1.95 | {{increase}} 0.01 | 0 | {{steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|One Nation|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | One Nation | 21,259 | 1.48 | {{decrease}} 6.71 | 0 | {{decrease}} 3 |
| {{Australian party style|Shooters, Fishers, Farmers|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | 21,210 | 1.47 | {{decrease}} 0.89 | 0 | {{decrease}} 1 |
| {{Australian party style|No Mandatory Vaccination|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | No Mandatory Vaccination | 16,094 | 1.12 | New | 0 | {{steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|Western Australia Party|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Western Australia Party | 10,496 | 0.73 | {{increase}} 0.34 | 0 | {{steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|Animal Justice|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Animal Justice | 9,732 | 0.64 | {{decrease}} 0.42 | 0 | {{steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|Liberal Democrats|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Liberal Democrats | 9,218 | 0.64 | {{decrease}} 1.13 | 0 | {{decrease}} 1 |
| {{Australian party style|Liberals for Climate|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Liberals for Climate | 7,515 | 0.52 | {{increase}} 0.08 | 0 | {{steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|WAxit|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | WAxit | 4,924 | 0.34 | {{decrease}} 0.21 | 0 | {{steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|Sustainable Australia|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Sustainable Australia | 4,405 | 0.31 | New | 0 | {{steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|Daylight Saving|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Daylight Saving | 3,485 | 0.24 | {{decrease}} 0.44 | 1 | {{increase}} 1 |
| {{Australian party style|Great Australian|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Great Australian | 3,397 | 0.24 | New | 0 | {{steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|Health Australia|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Health Australia | 3,105 | 0.22 | New | 0 | {{steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|Socialist Alliance|width:1px}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Socialist Alliance | 948 | 0.07 | {{decrease}} 0.04 | 0 | {{steady}} |
| {{Australian party style|Independent}} |
| style="text-align:left;" | Independents | 11,486 | 0.80 | {{decrease}} 0.35 | 0 | {{steady}} |
|
| style="text-align:left;" | Other | 482 | 0.03 | New | 0 | {{steady}} |
| colspan="2" rowspan="1" | Formal votes
| 1,439,168 | 98.05 | {{increase}} 0.76 | | |
| colspan="2" rowspan="1" | Informal votes
| 28,577 | 1.95 | {{decrease}} 0.76 | | |
| colspan="2" rowspan="1" | Total
| 1,467,745 | | | 36 | |
| colspan="2" rowspan="1" | Registered voters / turnout
| 1,716,732 | 85.50 | | | |
==Distribution of seats==
{{col-begin|width=auto}}
{{col-break}}
| class="wikitable" |
| Electoral region
! colspan=6| Seats held |
|---|
| | Agricultural
| width=20 {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | width=20 {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | width=20 {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | width=20 {{Australian party style|Liberal}} | | width=20 {{Australian party style|National}} | | width=20 {{Australian party style|National}} | |
| | East Metropolitan
| {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | {{Australian party style|Legalise Cannabis WA}} | | {{Australian party style|Liberal}} | |
| | Mining and Pastoral
| {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | {{Australian party style|Daylight Saving}} | | {{Australian party style|Liberal}} | |
| | North Metropolitan
| {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | {{Australian party style|Liberal}} | | {{Australian party style|Liberal}} | |
| | South Metropolitan
| {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | {{Australian party style|Greens}} | | {{Australian party style|Liberal}} | |
| | South West
| {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | {{Australian party style|Labor}} | | {{Australian party style|Legalise Cannabis WA}} | | {{Australian party style|Liberal}} | | {{Australian party style|National}} | |
{{col-break|gap=5em}}
| style="margin-top:1em" |
| {{Australian party style|Daylight Saving}} |
| Daylight Saving |
| {{Australian party style|Greens}} |
| Greens |
| {{Australian party style|Labor}} |
| Labor |
| {{Australian party style|Legalise Cannabis WA}} |
| Legalise Cannabis |
| width=20 {{Australian party style|Liberal}} |
| Liberal |
| {{Australian party style|National}} |
| National |
{{col-end}}
Background
{{see also|Results of the Western Australian state election, 2017 (Legislative Assembly)|Results of the Western Australian state election, 2017 (Legislative Council)}}
The 2017 state election saw Labor win one of the most comprehensive victories on record at the state or territory level in Australia. Labor won 41 of the 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly—a 23-seat majority—both WA Labor's strongest result ever, and the largest government seat tally and largest government majority in Western Australian parliamentary history. Additionally, Labor exceeded all published opinion polling, winning 55.5 percent of the two-party-preferred vote from a state record landslide 12.8 percent two-party swing.Labor 55.5% 2PP vote and +12.8% 2PP swing sourced from Antony Green's temporary estimate within provided ABC link published 30 March 2017, which states "The two-party preferred count is based on estimates for Baldivis, Moore and Roe. Actual two-party preferred counts for these seats will be available at a later date." – [http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2017/03/final-2017-wa-election-results-plus-a-new-electoral-pendulum.html Final 2017 WA Election Results plus a New Electoral Pendulum: Antony Green ABC 30 March 2017]{{cite web|author=Antony Green |url=http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2017/03/the-role-of-one-vote-one-value-electoral-reforms-in-labors-wa-victory.html |title=The Role of One-Vote One-Value Electoral Reforms in Labor's Record WA Victory |work=ABC News (Australia) |date=16 March 2017 |access-date=16 March 2017}} The Liberals were hit by a 15.8% swing against them on the primary vote and lost 18 seats to Labor, finishing with just 13 seats, the lowest share of seats the party has won in any election. The Nationals won the remaining five seats.{{cite web|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2017/|title=WA Election 2017|work=ABC News|date=11 March 2017|access-date=12 March 2017}} Labor also became the largest party in the Legislative Council with 14 of the 36 seats, ensuring it required at least five additional votes from non-government members to pass legislation.{{cite news|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-25/wa-labor-misses-out-on-working-majority-in-upper-house/8387038|title=WA Labor misses out on upper house working majority by one seat|work=ABC News|date=26 March 2017|last1=Gartry|first1=Laura|last2=Weber|first2=David}}
Two by-elections were held during the term of parliament, both in 2018. The Liberal Party held the seat of Cottesloe and picked up the seat Darling Range, increasing the Liberal/National bloc in the Assembly to 19 and decreasing the Labor Party to 40. In July/August 2019, Liberal MP Ian Blayney resigned from the party and joined the Nationals, thus returning the Liberal vote bloc to 13 and increasing the National vote bloc to 6.{{cite news |last1=Piesse |first1=Emily |title=Defector confirmed as newest WA Nationals party member |url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-17/wa-nationals-accept-ian-blayney-into-party/11424392 |work=ABC News |date=17 August 2019 |language=en-AU}}
In the lead up to the election, Premier Mark McGowan had high approval ratings over his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Opinion polls pegged the McGowan Government as unbackable favourites for a second term, and suggested that Labor would be re-elected by a record majority. Labor enjoyed support approaching 70% in the two-party preferred polls, and McGowan maintained a personal approval rating of 88%.{{cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/20/gospel-according-to-mark-can-anything-stop-western-australias-covid-saviours-re-election|title=Gospel according to Mark: can anything stop Western Australia's Covid saviour's re-election?|work=The Guardian|date=20 February 2021|access-date=15 March 2021}} On 25 February 2021, 16 days before Election Day, Leader of the Opposition Zak Kirkup conceded that the Liberals could not win the election, citing polling indicating immense popularity for McGowan and the Labor Government. Kirkup said that his main priority was ensuring the Liberals would be able to form a credible opposition, arguing that a Liberal party room reduced to the single digits would be in no position to stop Labor if it went "too far."{{Cite news|title=WA election upset as Liberal leader Zak Kirkup concedes he can't win on March 13|work=ABC News (Australia)|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-25/wa-liberal-leader-zak-kirkup-concedes-he-cant-win-election/13190946|access-date=25 February 2021}}
Electoral system
Candidates are elected to single-member seats in the Legislative Assembly via full-preferential instant-runoff voting. In the Legislative Council, six candidates are elected in each of the six electoral regions through the single transferable vote system with group voting tickets.{{Cite web|title=Voting Systems in WA {{!}} Western Australian Electoral Commission|url=https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/vote/voting-systems-wa|access-date=2 January 2021|website=www.elections.wa.gov.au}}
Registered parties
The following parties contested the election:{{Cite web|title=Legislative Assembly - Candidates by Party|url=https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/state/sgelection#/sg2021/LACandidateParty|access-date=21 February 2021|website=www.elections.wa.gov.au}}
{{col-begin}}
{{col-break}}
- Animal Justice Party
- Australian Christians
- Daylight Saving Party
- Great Australian Party
- Greens Western Australia
- Health Australia Party
- Labor Party
- Legalise Cannabis Western Australia Party
- Liberal Party
- Liberal Democratic Party
{{col-break}}
- Liberals for Climate
- National Party of Australia
- No Mandatory Vaccination Party
- Pauline Hanson's One Nation
- Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party
- Socialist Alliance
- Sustainable Australia
- WAxit Party
- Western Australia Party
{{col-end}}
Key dates
Election dates are set in statute with four-year fixed terms, to be held on the second Saturday of March every four years.{{cite web|url=http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1617/AustralianElectionsTimetable |title='So when is the next election?' |publisher=aph.gov.au |date=1 September 2016 |access-date=28 September 2017}}
Key dates for the election are:{{cite web |title=Key dates |url=https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/#keydates |publisher=Western Australian Electoral Commission |access-date=3 February 2021}}
| class="wikitable" |
| Date
! Event |
|---|
| 29 January 2021
| Dissolution of the Legislative Assembly{{cite web |title=Proclamation dissolving Legislative Assembly 2021 |url=https://www.slp.wa.gov.au/gazette/gazette.nsf/searchgazette/6928572F96B75AD84825866C00133777/$file/Gg022.pdf |website=Western Australian Government Gazette |access-date=3 February 2021}} |
| 3 February 2021
| Writs issued |
| 11 February 2021
| Close of party nominations (12{{nbsp}}pm) and close of electoral rolls (6{{nbsp}}pm) |
| 12 February 2021
| Close of nominations (12{{nbsp}}pm) and draw of ballot paper positions |
| 15 February 2021
| Deadline for group voting ticket lodgement |
| 22 February 2021
| Early voting begins |
| 13 March 2021
| Polling day, between the hours of 8{{nbsp}}am and 6{{nbsp}}pm |
| 18 March 2021
| Last day for receipt of postal votes by 9{{nbsp}}am |
Retiring MPs
{{see|Candidates of the 2021 Western Australian state election}}
=Labor=
- Janine Freeman MLA (Mirrabooka) – announced 25 November 2020{{Cite web|date=25 November 2020|title='I believe it is time for renewal': Labor MP Janine Freeman to retire at next election|url=https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/labor-mp-janine-freeman-to-retire-at-next-election-20201125-p56hxn.html|website=www.watoday.com.au|language=en-AU}}
- Josie Farrer MLA (Kimberley) – announced 18 August 2020{{Cite web|date=18 August 2020|title=Premier pays tribute to member for Kimberley Josie Farrer|url=https://www.miragenews.com/premier-pays-tribute-to-member-for-kimberley-josie-farrer/,%20https://www.miragenews.com/premier-pays-tribute-to-member-for-kimberley-josie-farrer|access-date=18 August 2020|website= Mirage News|language=en-AU}}
- Fran Logan MLA (Cockburn) – announced 31 August 2020{{Cite news|date=31 August 2020|title=Veteran WA Labor Minister to quit politics, hopes young candidate will step in|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-31/wa-emergency-services-minister-fran-logan-to-quit-politics/12613446|access-date=1 September 2020|newspaper=ABC News|language=en-AU|last1=Gubana|first1=Benjamin}}
- Mick Murray MLA (Collie-Preston) – announced 9 February 2020{{cite news|url=https://www.bunburymail.com.au/story/6621583/collie-preston-mla-announces-retirement/|title=Collie-Preston MLA Mick Murray to retire at 2021 State Election|newspaper=Bunbury Mail|last=Munday|first=Thomas|date=9 February 2020}}
- Peter Watson MLA (Albany) – announced 10 February 2020{{cite news|url=https://www.albanyadvertiser.com.au/news/albany-advertiser/end-of-an-era-veteran-albany-mp-peter-watson-announces-his-retirement-ng-b881457639z|title=End of an era - Veteran Albany MP Peter Watson announces his retirement|last=Traill|first=Michael|newspaper=Albany Advertiser|date=10 February 2020}}
- Ben Wyatt MLA (Victoria Park) – announced 16 November 2020{{cite news|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-16/treasurer-ben-wyatt-confirms-retirement-at-2021-wa-election/12888066|title=WA Treasurer Ben Wyatt announces he will quit politics at March state election|work=ABC News|last=Bell|first=Frances|date=16 November 2020}}
- Adele Farina MLC (South West) – lost preselection, announced retirement 26 June 2020{{cite news|url=https://www.busseltonmail.com.au/story/6808886/veteran-south-west-mlc-adele-farina-deprived-of-preselection-in-next-state-election/|title=Veteran South West MLC Adele Farina 'deprived' of preselection in next state election|date=26 June 2020|newspaper=Busselton Mail}}
- Laurie Graham MLC (Agricultural) – announced 21 July 2020{{cite news|url=https://www.farmweekly.com.au/story/6840338/candidates-announced-for-2021-election/|title=Candidates announced for 2021 election|last=Swift|first=Bree|newspaper=Farm Weekly|date=21 July 2020}}
=Liberal=
- John McGrath MLA (South Perth) – announced 30 October 2019{{cite news|url=https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-politics/liberal-member-for-south-perth-john-mcgrath-to-retire-ng-b881369079z|title=Liberal Member for South Perth John McGrath to retire|newspaper=The West Australian|date=30 October 2019|last=De Kruijff|first=Peter}}
- Mike Nahan MLA (Riverton) – announced 2 December 2019{{cite news|url=https://www.perthnow.com.au/community-news/canning-gazette/mike-nahan-to-retire-from-politics-in-2021-c-895482|title=Mike Nahan to retire from politics in 2021|date=3 December 2019|newspaper=Perth Now}}
- Dean Nalder MLA (Bateman) – announced 1 December 2020{{cite news |title=Dean Nalder quits politics |url=https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-politics/dean-nalder-quits-shadow-treasurer-and-bateman-mp-resigns-from-politics-ahead-of-march-2021-election-ng-b881736868z |access-date=1 December 2020 |work=The West Australian |date=1 December 2020 |language=en}}
- Ken Baston MLC (Mining and Pastoral) – announced 2 December 2019
- Simon O'Brien MLC (South Metropolitan) – lost preselection 3 February 2020,{{cite news|url=https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/wa-libs-opt-for-renewal-as-former-ministers-dumped-in-preselection-battles-20200202-p53x2l.html|title=WA Libs opt for renewal as former ministers dumped in preselection battles|last=Hondros|first=Nathan|date=3 February 2020|newspaper=WAtoday}} did not renominate
=Nationals=
- Jacqui Boydell MLC (Mining and Pastoral) – announced 21 February 2020{{cite web|url=https://www.facebook.com/TheNationalsWA/posts/boydell-to-retire-at-next-electiondeputy-leader-of-the-nationals-wa-hon-jacqui-b/2408793612553904/|title=BOYDELL TO RETIRE AT NEXT ELECTION|publisher=Facebook|date=21 February 2020}}{{cite web|url=https://www.farmweekly.com.au/story/6664135/liberal-ticket-sees-chown-down-the-list/|title=Liberal ticket sees Chown down the list|publisher=Farm Weekly|date=6 March 2020|access-date=26 November 2020}}
- Colin Holt MLC (South West) – announced 19 August 2020{{Cite web|url=https://www.nationalswa.com/colin-holt-mlc-to-retire-at-2021-state-election/|title=Colin Holt MLC to retire at 2021 State Election|date=19 August 2020|accessdate=11 February 2024}}
=Greens=
- Robin Chapple MLC (Mining and Pastoral) – announced 27 February 2020{{cite news|url=https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/freo-mayor-in-tilt-for-state-politics-as-greens-look-to-inject-x-factor-20200227-p544tt.html|title=Freo mayor in tilt for state politics as Greens look to inject 'X-factor'|newspaper=WA Today|date=27 February 2020|last=Hondros|first=Nathan}}
Campaign/candidate controversies
In January 2021, Liberal Party candidate for Victoria Park Amanda-Sue Markham defended her husband's controversial views on homosexuality and conversion therapy. Despite calls for her to do so, she did not withdraw from the election.{{Cite news|last=de Kruijff|first=Peter|date=30 January 2021|title=Liberal candidate under fire over husband's beliefs says 'faith should not be subject of interrogation'|work=WA Today|url=https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/liberal-candidate-under-fire-over-husband-s-beliefs-says-faith-should-not-be-subject-of-interrogation-20210130-p56y2k.html}}
Additionally, the Liberal Party candidate for Baldivis, Andrea Tokaji, was forced to resign from the Liberal Party after making discredited claims{{Cite news|last1=Nicholls|first1=Sean|last2=Russell|first2=Ali|last3=Selvaratnam|first3=Naomi|date=3 August 2020|title=What is the truth about 5G? Four Corners spoke to leading experts and anti-5G activists to find out|work=ABC News (Australia)|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-03/5g-conspiracy-theory-investigation-coronavirus-health/12507368}} about a link between 5G towers and COVID-19.{{Cite news|last=Ramsey|first=Michael|date=28 January 2021|title=WA Libs face heat over 5G conspiracy claim|work=7 News|url=https://7news.com.au/politics/wa-libs-face-heat-over-5g-conspiracy-claim-c-2047287}} She continued as an Independent candidate for Baldivis, with the Liberal Party selecting Luke Derrick as her replacement.{{cite news|last1=Manfield |first1=Evelyn |title=WA election Liberal candidate Andrea Tokaji withdraws after 'dangerous' 5G coronavirus conspiracy theory beliefs revealed |url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-28/liberal-candidate-conspiracy-theorist-withdraws-from-wa-election/13094562|date=28 January 2021 |website=ABC News |access-date=28 February 2021}}
In March 2021, One Nation dumped Roger Barnett as its candidate for the seat of Forrestfield after offensive Muslim and Aboriginal comments emerged from his Facebook page that were posted between 2012 and 2018. It was also reported later that another One Nation candidate had comments that were offensive towards Muslim and African people.{{Cite news|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-08/one-nation-racism-row-ensnares-liberals-voting-cards-wa-election/13223516|title = Liberals to replace how-to-vote cards after One Nation racism row|newspaper = ABC News|date = 8 March 2021|last1 = Shine|first1 = Rhiannon}}
Redistribution
A redistribution of electoral boundaries for the lower house was announced on 27 November 2019. The changes did not result in a district changing party status notionally based on the new boundaries. However, the districts of Hillarys and Joondalup became far more marginal, with margins of 0.4 and 0.03 respectively. There was one seat renamed in due to the boundary changes, with Girrawheen becoming the new district of Landsdale. Ten districts were not affected by boundary changes.
Electoral pendulums
=Pre-election pendulum=
This is a pre-election pendulum, taking into account the 2019 boundary redistribution. Estimated margins are calculated by Antony Green for the Western Australian Parliamentary Library.{{cite web |last1=Green |first1=Antony |title=2019 Redistribution Western Australia: Analysis of New Electoral Boundaries |url=https://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/WebCMS/webcms.nsf/resources/file-2019-electoral-boundary-redistribution/$file/AntonyGreenElectoralBoundaries.report.pdf |publisher=Parliament of Western Australia |access-date=2 January 2021}} Retiring members are shown in italics.
| class="toccolours" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" style="float:left; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em; font-size:90 ppt;" |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;color:white;"| Government seats |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;color:white;"|Marginal |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Joondalup
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Emily Hamilton | style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ffcaca;"|0.03 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Kingsley
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Jessica Stojkovski | style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ffcaca;"|1.2 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Murray-Wellington
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Robyn Clarke | style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ffcaca;"|1.7 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Jandakot
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Yaz Mubarakai | style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ffcaca;"|1.8 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Pilbara
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Kevin Michel | style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|ALP v NAT | style="text-align:center; background:#ffcaca;"|2.2 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Kalamunda
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Matthew Hughes | style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ffcaca;"|2.3 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Bicton
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Lisa O'Malley | style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ffcaca;"|3.6 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Mount Lawley
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Simon Millman | style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ffcaca;"|4.0 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Burns Beach
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Mark Folkard | style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ffcaca;"|5.4 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Albany
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Peter Watson | style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|ALP v NAT | style="text-align:center; background:#ffcaca;"|5.9 |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;color:white;"|Fairly safe |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|Southern River
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|Terry Healy | style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff8d8d;"|7.9 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|Balcatta
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|David Michael | style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff8d8d;"|8.0 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|Wanneroo
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|Sabine Winton | style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff8d8d;"|8.6 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|Forrestfield
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|Stephen Price | style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff8d8d;"|9.4 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|Landsdale
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|Margaret Quirk | style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff8d8d;"|9.6 |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;color:white;"|Safe |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Bunbury
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Don Punch | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|10.5 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Belmont
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Cassie Rowe | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|11.4 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Swan Hills
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Jessica Shaw | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|12.1 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Morley
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Amber-Jade Sanderson | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|12.3 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Perth
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|John Carey | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|12.6 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Midland
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Michelle Roberts | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|12.8 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Kimberley
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Josie Farrer | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|13.1 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Cockburn
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Fran Logan | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|14.3 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Collie-Preston
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Mick Murray | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|14.7 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Thornlie
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Chris Tallentire | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|15.8 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Baldivis
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Reece Whitby | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|16.6 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Victoria Park
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Ben Wyatt | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|16.8 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Cannington
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Bill Johnston | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|17.6 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Willagee
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Peter Tinley | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|17.7 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Maylands
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Lisa Baker | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|17.9 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Mandurah
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|David Templeman | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|18.0 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|West Swan
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Rita Saffioti | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|18.4 |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;color:white;"|Very safe |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Butler
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|John Quigley | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|20.5 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Kwinana
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Roger Cook | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|20.7 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Bassendean
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Dave Kelly | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|21.6 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Fremantle
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Simone McGurk | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|23.0 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Mirrabooka
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Janine Freeman | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|23.3 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Rockingham
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Mark McGowan | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|23.5 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Warnbro
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Paul Papalia | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|23.7 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Armadale
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Tony Buti | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|25.2 |
| class="toccolours" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" style="float:left; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em; font-size:90 ppt;" |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:blue;color:white;"|Non-government seats |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:blue;color:white;"| Marginal |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Hillarys
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Peter Katsambanis | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|0.4 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Dawesville
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Zak Kirkup | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|0.8 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Darling Range
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Alyssa Hayden | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB (b/e) | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|3.5 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Riverton
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Mike Nahan | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|4.2 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Scarborough
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Liza Harvey | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|5.7 |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:blue;color:white;"|Fairly safe |
| style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|Kalgoorlie
| style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|Kyran O'Donnell | style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#80d8f9;"|6.2 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|South Perth
| style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|John McGrath | style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#80d8f9;"|7.2 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|Bateman
| style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|Dean Nalder | style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#80d8f9;"|7.8 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|Nedlands
| style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|Bill Marmion | style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#80d8f9;"|8.0 |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:blue;color:white;"|Safe |
| style="text-align:left; background:#61c3ff;"|Carine
| style="text-align:left; background:#61c3ff;"|Tony Krsticevic | style="text-align:left; background:#61c3ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#61c3ff;"|10.2 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#61c3ff;"|Churchlands
| style="text-align:left; background:#61c3ff;"|Sean L'Estrange | style="text-align:left; background:#61c3ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#61c3ff;"|11.7 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#61c3ff;"|Vasse
| style="text-align:left; background:#61c3ff;"|Libby Mettam | style="text-align:left; background:#61c3ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#61c3ff;"|14.6 |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:blue;color:white;"|Very safe |
| style="text-align:left; background:#44a6f1;"|Cottesloe
| style="text-align:left; background:#44a6f1;"|David Honey | style="text-align:left; background:#44a6f1;"|LIB v GRN (b/e) | style="text-align:center; background:#44a6f1;"|20.2 |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:gray;color:white;"|Crossbench seats |
| style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|Geraldton
| style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|Ian Blayney (NAT) | style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|LIB v ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#98fb98;"|1.3 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|North West Central
| style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|Vince Catania | style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|NAT v ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#98fb98;"|10.1 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|Warren-Blackwood
| style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|Terry Redman | style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|NAT v ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#98fb98;"|12.8 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|Moore
| style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|Shane Love | style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|NAT v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#98fb98;"|19.5 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|Central Wheatbelt
| style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|Mia Davies | style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|NAT v ALP | style="text-align:center; background:#98fb98;"|22.2 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|Roe
| style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|Peter Rundle | style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|NAT v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#98fb98;"|25.9 |
{{Clear}}
=Post-election pendulum=
| class="toccolours" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" style="float:left; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em; font-size:90 ppt;" |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;color:white;"| Government seats |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;color:white;"|Marginal |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Churchlands
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Christine Tonkin | style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#ffcaca;"|0.8 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Warren-Blackwood
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Jane Kelsbie | style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|ALP v NAT | style="text-align:center; background:#ffcaca;"|1.3 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Carine
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Paul Lilburne | style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#ffcaca;"|2.5 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Nedlands
| style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|Katrina Stratton | style="text-align:left; background:#ffcaca;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#ffcaca;"|2.8 |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;color:white;"|Fairly safe |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|Bateman
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|Kim Giddens | style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#ff8d8d;"|6.7 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|Riverton
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|Jags Krishnan | style="text-align:left; background:#ff8d8d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#ff8d8d;"|9.0 |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;color:white;"|Safe |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|South Perth
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Geoff Baker | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|10.1 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Scarborough
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Stuart Aubrey | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|10.4 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Geraldton
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Lara Dalton | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP v NAT | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|11.7 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Kalamunda
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Matthew Hughes | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|11.8 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Kalgoorlie
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Ali Kent | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|12.0 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Darling Range
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Hugh Jones | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|13.5 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Albany
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Rebecca Stephens | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|13.7 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Dawesville
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Lisa Munday | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|13.9 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Bicton
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Lisa O'Malley | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|15.6 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Fremantle
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Simone McGurk | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP v GRN | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|15.8 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Kingsley
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Jessica Stojkovski | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|16.9 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Murray-Wellington
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Robyn Clarke | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|17.2 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Hillarys
| style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|Caitlin Collins | style="text-align:left; background:#ff6b6b;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#ff6b6b;"|19.0 |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:red;color:white;"|Very safe |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Pilbara
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Kevin Michel | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v NAT | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|20.4 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Jandakot
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Yaz Mubarakai | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|21.0 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Kimberley
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Divina D'Anna | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|21.4 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Mount Lawley
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Simon Millman | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|21.6 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Bunbury
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Don Punch | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|22.5 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Collie-Preston
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Jodie Hanns | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|23.4 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Joondalup
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Emily Hamilton | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|24.7 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Mandurah
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|David Templeman | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|25.2 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Landsdale
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Margaret Quirk | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|25.4 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Forrestfield
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Stephen Price | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|25.5 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Midland
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Michelle Roberts | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|25.5 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Balcatta
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|David Michael | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|25.8 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Cockburn
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|David Scaife | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|26.7 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Burns Beach
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Mark Folkard | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|26.9 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Swan Hills
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Jessica Shaw | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|27.1 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Willagee
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Peter Tinley | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|27.1 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Victoria Park
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Hannah Beazley | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|27.8 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Wanneroo
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Sabine Winton | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|28.4 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Morley
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Amber-Jade Sanderson | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|28.6 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Belmont
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Cassie Rowe | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|29.2 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Maylands
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Lisa Baker | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|29.3 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Perth
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|John Carey | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|29.3 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Cannington
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Bill Johnston | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|30.4 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Thornlie
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Chris Tallentire | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|30.9 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Bassendean
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Dave Kelly | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|31.6 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Butler
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|John Quigley | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|32.2 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Southern River
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Terry Healy | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|33.1 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Warnbro
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Paul Papalia | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|33.4 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Mirrabooka
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Meredith Hammat | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|33.7 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|West Swan
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Rita Saffioti | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|34.2 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Kwinana
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Roger Cook | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|34.8 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Armadale
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Tony Buti | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|35.5 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Baldivis
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Reece Whitby | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|36.9 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Rockingham
| style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|Mark McGowan | style="text-align:left; background:#df716d;"|ALP v LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#df716d;"|37.7 |
| class="toccolours" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" style="float:left; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em; font-size:90 ppt;" |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:#008800;color:white;"|Non-government seats |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:#008800;color:white;"| Marginal |
| style="text-align:left; background:#ccffcc;"|North West Central
| style="text-align:left; background:#ccffcc;"|Vince Catania | style="text-align:left; background:#ccffcc;"|NAT | style="text-align:center; background:#ccffcc;"|1.7 |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:#008800;color:white;"| Fairly safe |
| style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|Moore
| style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|Shane Love | style="text-align:left; background:#98fb98;"|NAT | style="text-align:center; background:#98fb98;"|8.5 |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:#008800;color:white;"| Safe |
| style="text-align:left; background:#90ee90;"|Central Wheatbelt
| style="text-align:left; background:#90ee90;"|Mia Davies | style="text-align:left; background:#90ee90;"|NAT | style="text-align:center; background:#90ee90;"|10.7 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#90ee90;"|Roe
| style="text-align:left; background:#90ee90;"|Peter Rundle | style="text-align:left; background:#90ee90;"|NAT | style="text-align:center; background:#90ee90;"|11.1 |
| colspan="4" style="text-align:center; background:gray;color:white;"|Crossbench seats |
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Vasse
| style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|Libby Mettam | style="text-align:left; background:#a6e7ff;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#a6e7ff;"|4.3 |
| style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|Cottesloe
| style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|David Honey | style="text-align:left; background:#80d8f9;"|LIB | style="text-align:center; background:#80d8f9;"|7.4 |
{{Clear}}
Opinion polling
=Graphical summary=
| class="wikitable"
! Primary vote |
| {{Graph:Chart
| width=650 | height=350 | xAxisTitle= | yAxisTitle=% voting intention | xAxisAngle = -40 | yAxisMin = 0 | yAxisMax = 65 | legend=Parties | interpolate = bundle | size = 100 | xType = date | y1Title = Labor | y2Title = Liberal | y3Title = National | y4Title = Greens | y5Title = One Nation | y6Title = Other/Independent(s) | type=line |xGrid=y |yGrid=y | x = 2017/03/17, 2017/06/30, 2017/09/31, 2017/12/31, 2018/08/12, 2021/02/16, 2021/02/17, 2021/02/18, 2021/03/11, 2021/03/13 | y1 = 42.2, 44, 39, 41, 40, 49, 46.8, 59, 57, 59.9 | y2 = 31.2, 33, 32, 29, 32, 24, 27.5, 23, 23, 21.3 | y3 = 5.4, 4, 4, 4, 6, 3, 5.1, 2, 3, 4 | y4 = 8.9, 9, 12, 13, 11, 9, 8.3, 8, 9, 6.9 | y5 = 4.9, 5, 8, 7, 5, 3, 6.9, 3, 2, 1.3 | y6 = 7.4, 6, 6, 6, 6, 12, 5.3, 5, 6, 6.6 | colors = #FF0000, #1f68e0, #0c7058, #16e395, #f3b315, #b3b3b3 | showSymbols = 1.5 | symbolsShape = dot }} |
| class="wikitable"
! Two-party preferred |
| {{Graph:Chart
| width=650 | height=350 | xAxisTitle= | yAxisTitle=% voting intention | xAxisAngle = -40 | yAxisMin = 25 | yAxisMax = 75 | legend=Parties | interpolate = bundle | size = 100 | xType = date | y1Title = Labor | y2Title = Liberal | y3Title = National | y4Title = Greens | y5Title = One Nation | y6Title = Other/Independent(s) | type=line |xGrid=y |yGrid=y | x = 2017/03/17, 2017/06/30, 2017/09/31, 2017/12/31, 2018/08/12, 2021/02/16, 2021/02/18, 2021/03/11, 2021/03/13 | y1 = 55.5, 55, 54, 57, 54, 61, 68, 66, 69.7 | y2 = 44.5, 45, 46, 43, 46, 39, 32, 34, 30.3 | colors = #FF0000, #1f68e0, | showSymbols = 1.5 | symbolsShape = dot }} |
=Voting intention=
| class="toccolours" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" style="float:left; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em; font-size:90%;" |
| +Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling |
| style="background:#; text-align:center;" rowspan="2"|Date
! style="background:#; text-align:center;" rowspan="2"|Firm ! style="background:#ccc; text-align:center;" colspan="6"|Primary vote ! style="background:#ebbce3; text-align:center;" colspan="2"|TPP vote |
|---|
| style="background:#f66; text-align:center;"|ALP
! style="background:#00bfff; text-align:center;"|LIB ! style="background:#40c351; text-align:center;"|NAT ! style="background:#90ee90; text-align:center;"|GRN ! style="background:#FF8040; text-align:center;"|ONP ! style="background:#888; text-align:center;"|OTH ! style="background:#f66; text-align:center;"|ALP ! style="background:#00bfff; text-align:center;"|LIB |
| style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;" colspan="2"|13 March 2021 election
| style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|59.9% | width="" style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|21.3% | style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|4.0% | width="" style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|6.9% | width="" style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|1.3% | width="" style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|6.6% | width="" style="text-align:center; background:#f66;"|69.7% | width="" style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|30.3% |
| 5–11 March 2021
| style="text-align:left;" | Newspoll{{cite web |last1=Garvey |first1=Paul |title=Newspoll: Mark McGowan goes full bore to win |url=https://theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll-mark-mcgowan-goes-full-bore-to-win/news-story/778db5daf329f402675ae68c311d2adb |website=The Australian |access-date=12 March 2021}} | style="text-align:center;"| 57% | style="text-align:center;"| 23% | style="text-align:center;"| 3% | style="text-align:center;"| 9% | style="text-align:center;"| 2% | style="text-align:center;"| 6% | style="background:#f66; text-align:center;"| 66% | style="text-align:center;"| 34% |
| 18 February 2021
| style="text-align:left;" | Newspoll{{cite news |title=Popular Premier Mark McGowan to lead wipeout in the West |url=https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/popular-premier-mark-mcgowan-to-lead-wipeout-in-the-west/news-story/b6d8d964ec454ca28d7cd1a16e6a3a48 |work=www.theaustralian.com.au |date=2021}} | style="text-align:center;"| 59% | style="text-align:center;"| 23% | style="text-align:center;"| 2% | style="text-align:center;"| 8% | style="text-align:center;"| 3% | style="text-align:center;"| 5% | style="background:#f66; text-align:center;"| 68% | style="text-align:center;"| 32% |
| 16 February 2021
| style="text-align:left;" | uComms{{cite web |last1=Bowe |first1=William |title=Western Australian election minus three-and-a-half weeks |url=https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/02/16/western-australian-election-minus-three-and-a-half-weeks/ |website=Poll Bludger |access-date=17 February 2021}} | style="text-align:center;"| 46.8% | style="text-align:center;"| 27.5% | style="text-align:center;"| 5.1% | style="text-align:center;"| 8.3% | style="text-align:center;"| 6.9% | style="text-align:center;"| 5.3% | style="background:#f66; text-align:center;"| 61% | style="text-align:center;"| 39% |
| 16 February 2021
| style="text-align:left;" | Online Research Unit{{cite news |last1=Law |first1=Peter |title=State Election 2021: Mark McGowan on track to lead WA Labor to biggest ever victory |url=https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-election-2021/state-election-2021-mark-mcgowan-on-track-to-lead-wa-labor-to-biggest-ever-victory-ng-b881796999z |work=The West Australian |date=15 February 2021 |language=en}} | style="text-align:center;"| 49% | style="text-align:center;"| 24% | style="text-align:center;"| 3% | style="text-align:center;"| 9% | style="text-align:center;"| 3% | style="text-align:center;"| 12% | style="text-align:center;"colspan="2"|N/A |
| 12 August 2018
| style="text-align:left;" | YouGov-Galaxy{{cite web|title=Opinion poll: WA Labor still hold strong lead over Liberal-National|url=https://www.perthnow.com.au/politics/state-politics/opinion-poll-wa-labor-still-hold-strong-lead-over-liberal-national-ng-b88924946z|date=12 August 2018}} | style="text-align:center;"| 40% | style="text-align:center;"| 32% | style="text-align:center;"| 6% | style="text-align:center;"| 11% | style="text-align:center;"| 5% | style="text-align:center;"| 6% | style="background:#f66; text-align:center;"| 54% | style="text-align:center;"| 46% |
| Oct–Dec 2017
| style="text-align:left;" | Essential{{cite web|title=State voting intention WA|url=https://essentialvision.com.au/state-voting-intention-wa|date=9 January 2018|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180404162523/https://essentialvision.com.au/state-voting-intention-wa|archive-date=4 April 2018}} | style="text-align:center;"| 41% | style="text-align:center;"| 29% | style="text-align:center;"| 4% | style="text-align:center;"| 13% | style="text-align:center;"| 7% | style="text-align:center;"| 6% | style="background:#f66; text-align:center;"| 57% | style="text-align:center;"| 43% |
| Jul–Sep 2017
| style="text-align:left;" | Essential | style="text-align:center;"| 39% | style="text-align:center;"| 32% | style="text-align:center;"| 4% | style="text-align:center;"| 12% | style="text-align:center;"| 8% | style="text-align:center;"| 6% | style="background:#f66; text-align:center;"| 54% | style="text-align:center;"| 46% |
| Apr–Jun 2017
| style="text-align:left;" | Essential | style="text-align:center;"| 44% | style="text-align:center;"| 33% | style="text-align:center;"| 4% | style="text-align:center;"| 9% | style="text-align:center;"| 5% | style="text-align:center;"| 6% | style="background:#f66; text-align:center;"| 55% | style="text-align:center;"| 45% |
| style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;" colspan="2"|11 March 2017 election
| style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|42.2% | width="" style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|31.2% | style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|5.4% | width="" style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|8.9% | width="" style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|4.9% | width="" style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|7.4% | width="" style="text-align:center; background:#f66;"|55.5% | width="" style="text-align:center; background:#b0e9db;"|44.5% |
{{Clear}}
=Better Premier and leadership approval=
| class="toccolours" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" style="text-align:center; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em; font-size:90%"
|+ Better Premier and satisfaction polling* |
| rowspan="2" | Date
! rowspan="2" | Firm ! colspan="3" | Preferred Premier ! colspan="3" | McGowan ! colspan="3" | Kirkup |
|---|
| McGowan
! Kirkup ! Undecided ! Satisfied ! Dissatisfied ! Undecided ! Satisfied ! Dissatisfied ! Undecided |
| 5–11 March 2021
| Newspoll | style="background:#f66"| 79% | 13% | 8% | style="background:#f66"| 88% | 10% | 2% | 32% | style="background:#00bfff"| 49% | 19% |
| 18 February 2021
| Newspoll | style="background:#f66"| 83% | 10% | 7% | style="background:#f66"| 88% | 10% | 2% | 29% | style="background:#00bfff"| 41% | 30% |
=Electorate polling=
| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" | Electorate ! rowspan="2" | Date ! rowspan="2" | Firm ! colspan="6" | Primary vote ! colspan="2" | TPP |
| style="text-align:center; background:#f66"| ALP
! style="text-align:center; background:#00bfff"| LIB ! style="text-align:center; background:#40c351"| NAT ! style="text-align:center; background:#90ee90"| GRN ! style="text-align:center; background:#FF8040"| ONP ! style="text-align:center; background:#888"| OTH ! style="text-align:center; background:#f66"| ALP ! style="text-align:center; background:#00bfff"| L/NP |
|---|
| Dawesville
| style="text-align:center"| 11 March 2021{{Cite web|url=https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-election-2021/state-election-2021-exclusive-poll-shows-zak-kirkup-to-be-first-wa-liberal-leader-in-88-years-to-lose-seat-ng-b881818479z|title=Kirkup set to lose own seat after knockout Labor swing|date=11 March 2021|website=The West Australian|accessdate=11 February 2024}} | style="text-align:center"| YouGov | style="text-align:center"| 55% | style="text-align:center"| 33% | style="text-align:center"| — | style="text-align:center"| 3% | style="text-align:center"| 2% | style="text-align:center"| 7% | style="text-align:center; background:#f66"| 60% | style="text-align:center"| 40% |
Newspaper endorsements
| class="wikitable" |
| Newspaper
! colspan="2" | Endorsement |
|---|
| The West Australian
| {{party name with colour|Australian Labor Party}}{{cite news |title=The West Australian |date=13 March 2021 |page=2}} |
Demographic trends
While all electorates swung towards Labor, there was some correlation between certain characteristics (demographics as measured by the 2016 Australian Census) and the magnitude of the two-party-preferred swing to Labor in each electorate. This does not necessarily imply a causal relationship but rather some similarities between electoral districts which moved more or less towards the Labor party on the two-party-preferred.{{Cite web|last=|date=2021-03-31|title=Which areas drove the swing to Labor in WA 2021?|url=https://armariuminterreta.site/2021/03/31/where-labor-gained-most-in-wa-2021/|url-status=live|access-date=2021-04-07|website=Armarium Interreta|language=en-AU|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210331092703/https://armariuminterreta.site/2021/03/31/where-labor-gained-most-in-wa-2021/ |archive-date=31 March 2021 }}
=Incumbent MP=
Electoral districts which were flipped by a Labor candidate at the last election (e.g. the electoral district of Joondalup, which was a Liberal-held district prior to the 2017 Western Australian state election) saw a bigger swing to Labor than similar districts which were already Labor-held or which had not changed hands. Districts where a Labor incumbent retired (e.g. electoral district of Albany) saw a smaller swing to Labor than similar districts where there were no Labor retirements.
=Age=
=Occupation=
Electoral districts with a high proportion of persons working in clerical or administrative jobs swung more to Labor than the rest of the state (R{{sup|2}} = 0.12, p < 0.01). This may be confounded by the fact that most such electorates are inner-city Perth electorates and therefore this may be more a factor of inner-city Perth swinging harder to Labor than the rest of the state, and not due to clerical/administrative-heavy electorates swinging to Labor per se.
=Language=
See also
References
{{reflist}}
External links
- [https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/state/sgelection#/sg2021 Western Australian Electoral Commission: 2021 State General Election]
- [https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2021 ABC Elections: 2021 West Australian Election Guide]
- [https://www.pollbludger.net/wa2021/ The Poll Bludger: Western Australian Election 2021]
- [https://www.tallyroom.com.au/wa2021 The Tally Room: Western Australia 2021]
{{Western Australian elections}}
Western Australian state election