2023 Madrilenian regional election
{{Short description|Spanish election}}
{{Infobox election
| election_name = 2023 Madrilenian regional election
| country = Madrid
| type = parliamentary
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = 2021 Madrilenian regional election
| previous_year = 2021
| next_election = Next Madrilenian regional election
| next_year = Next
| outgoing_members =
| elected_members =
| seats_for_election = All 135 seats in the Assembly of Madrid
| majority_seats = 68
| opinion_polls = #Opinion polls
| registered = 5,211,710 File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg1.9%
| turnout = 3,413,819 (65.5%)
File:Red Arrow Down.svg6.2 pp
| election_date = 28 May 2023
| image1 = 170x170px
| leader1 = Isabel Díaz Ayuso
| party1 = People's Party of the Community of Madrid
| leader_since1 = 13 January 2019
| last_election1 = 65 seats, 44.8%
| seats1 = 70
| seat_change1 = File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg5
| popular_vote1 = 1,599,186
| percentage1 = 47.3%
| swing1 = File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg2.5 pp
| image2 = 170x170px
| leader2 = Mónica García
| leader_since2 = 10 July 2020
| last_election2 = 24 seats, 17.0%
| seats2 = 27
| seat_change2 = File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg3
| popular_vote2 = 620,631
| percentage2 = 18.4%
| swing2 = File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg1.4 pp
| image3 = 170x170px
| leader3 = Juan Lobato
| party3 = Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of the Community of Madrid
| leader_since3 = 23 October 2021
| last_election3 = 24 seats, 16.8%
| seats3 = 27
| seat_change3 = File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg3
| popular_vote3 = 614,296
| percentage3 = 18.2%
| swing3 = File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg1.4 pp
| image4 = 170x170px
| leader4 = Rocío Monasterio
| party4 = Vox (political party)
| leader_since4 = 18 April 2019
| last_election4 = 13 seats, 9.1%
| seats4 = 11
| seat_change4 = File:Red Arrow Down.svg2
| popular_vote4 = 248,379
| percentage4 = 7.3%
| swing4 = File:Red Arrow Down.svg1.8 pp
| image5 = 170x170px
| leader5 = Alejandra Jacinto
| party5 = Podemos–IU–AV
| leader_since5 = 14 December 2022
| last_election5 = 10 seats, 7.2%
| seats5 = 0
| seat_change5 = File:Red Arrow Down.svg10
| popular_vote5 = 161,032
| percentage5 = 4.8%
| swing5 = File:Red Arrow Down.svg2.4 pp
| map_image =
| map_size =
| map_caption =
| title = President
| before_election = Isabel Díaz Ayuso
| before_party = People's Party of the Community of Madrid
| after_election = Isabel Díaz Ayuso
| after_party = People's Party of the Community of Madrid
}}
The 2023 Madrilenian regional election was held on Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 13th Assembly of the Community of Madrid. All 135 seats in the Assembly were up for election. Because regional elections in the Community of Madrid were mandated for the fourth Sunday of May every four years, the 2021 snap election did not alter the term of the four-year legislature starting in 2019. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections throughout Spain.
Overview
=Electoral system=
The Assembly of Madrid was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Madrid, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Madrilenian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.{{cite act |title=Ley Orgánica 3/1983, de 25 de febrero, de Estatuto de Autonomía de la Comunidad de Madrid |type=Organic Law |number=3 |language=es |date=25 February 1983 |url=https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-1983-6317&tn=1&p=20100717 |access-date=22 February 2017}} Voting for the Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Community of Madrid and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system ({{langx|es|Voto rogado}}), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.{{cite web |last=Reig Pellicer |first=Naiara |date=16 December 2015 |url=http://www.cafebabel.co.uk/politics/article/spanish-elections-begging-for-the-right-to-vote.html |title=Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote |website=cafebabel.co.uk |access-date=17 July 2017}} The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.{{cite news |last=Araque Conde |first=Pilar |date=8 June 2022 |title=El Congreso acaba con el voto rogado: diez años de trabas burocráticas para los residentes en el extranjero |url=https://www.publico.es/politica/congreso-acaba-voto-rogado-diez-anos-trabas-burocraticas-residentes-extranjero.html |language=es |newspaper=Público |location=Madrid |access-date=31 July 2022}}
All members of the Assembly of Madrid were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. The Assembly was entitled to one member per each 50,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 25,000.{{cite act |title=Ley 11/1986, de 16 de diciembre, Electoral de la Comunidad de Madrid |type=Law |number=11 |language=es |date=16 November 1986 |url=https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-1987-4255&tn=1&p=20061229 |access-date=22 February 2017}}
=Election date=
The term of the Assembly of Madrid expired four years after the date of its previous election, with elections to the Assembly being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous ordinary election was held on 26 May 2019, setting the election date for the Assembly on Sunday, 28 May 2023.{{cite act |title=Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General |type=Organic Law |number=5 |language=es |date=19 June 1985 |url=https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-1985-11672&tn=1&p=20221003 |access-date=8 April 2023}}
The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Madrid and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution.{{cite act |title=Ley 5/1990, de 17 de mayo, reguladora de la facultad de disolución de la Asamblea de Madrid por el Presidente de la Comunidad |type=Law |number=5 |language=es |date=17 May 1990 |url=https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-1990-23935&tn=1&p=19900529 |access-date=14 September 2017}} In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.
The election to the Assembly of Madrid was officially triggered on 4 April 2023 after the publication of the election decree in the Official Gazette of the Community of Madrid (BOCM), scheduling for the chamber to convene on 13 June.{{cite journal|journal=Boletín Oficial de la Comunidad de Madrid|issue=80|date=4 April 2023|language=es|title=Decreto 15/2023, de 3 de abril, de la Presidenta de la Comunidad de Madrid, por el que se convocan elecciones a la Asamblea de Madrid|url=https://www.bocm.es/boletin/CM_Orden_BOCM/2023/04/04/BOCM-20230404-1.PDF|issn=1989-4791|page=14}}
Parliamentary composition
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Assembly at the time of dissolution.{{cite web |url=https://www.historiaelectoral.com/amadrid.html |title=Elecciones autonómicas a la Asamblea de Madrid (1983-2021) |language=es |website=Historia Electoral.com |access-date=10 October 2021}}{{cite web |url=https://www.asambleamadrid.es/composicion/grupos-parlamentarios |title=Grupos Parlamentarios |language=es |website=Assembly of Madrid |access-date=10 October 2021}}
class="wikitable" style="text-align:left;"
|+ Parliamentary composition in April 2023 |
rowspan="2" colspan="2"| Groups
! rowspan="2" colspan="2"| Parties ! colspan="2"| Legislators |
---|
Seats
! Total |
width="1" style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}"|
| People's Parliamentary Group | width="1" style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}"| | PP | 65 | 65 |
rowspan="2" style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Más Madrid}}"|
| rowspan="2"| More Madrid Parliamentary Group | style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Más Madrid}}"| | MM | 22 | rowspan="2"| 24 |
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Greens Equo}}"|
| VQ | 2 |
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of the Community of Madrid}}"|
| Socialist Parliamentary Group | style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of the Community of Madrid}}"| | PSOE | 24 | 24 |
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}}"|
| Vox Parliamentary Group in Madrid | style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}}"| | Vox | 13 | 13 |
rowspan="2" style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Unidas Podemos}}"|
| rowspan="2"| United We Can Parliamentary Group | style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Podemos (Spanish political party, 2022)}}"| | Podemos | 8 | rowspan="2"| 10 |
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|United Left–Madrid}}"|
| IU–M | 2 |
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least 0.5 percent of the electorate in the Community of Madrid, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:
Campaign
=Party slogans=
class="wikitable" style="text-align:left;" |
style="text-align:left;" colspan="2"| Party or alliance
! Original slogan ! English translation ! {{abbr|Ref.|References}} |
---|
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}"|
| PP | « Ganas » | "You win" / "Feeling like it" |
width="1" style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Más Madrid}}"|
| « Lo próximo » | "What comes" |
bgcolor="{{party color|Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of the Community of Madrid}}" |
| PSOE | « Madrid da para todos » | "Madrid has for everyone" |
bgcolor="{{party color|Vox (political party)}}" |
| Vox | « Vota seguro » | "Vote safely" |
bgcolor="{{party color|Unidas Podemos}}" |
| « La llave para Madrid » | "The key to Madrid" |
=Election debates=
class="wikitable" style="text-align:center;"
|+ 2023 Madrilenian regional election debates |
rowspan="3"| Date
! rowspan="3"| Organisers ! rowspan="3"| Moderator(s) ! colspan="8"| {{smaller| }} {{Colors|black|#90FF90| P }} {{smaller|Present{{efn|Denotes a main invitee attending the event.}} }} {{Colors|black|#D0F0C0| S }} {{smaller|Surrogate{{efn|Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.}} }} {{Colors|black|#FF9090| A }} {{smaller|Absent invitee }} |
---|
scope="col" style="width:5em;"| PP
! scope="col" style="width:5em;"| MM–VQ ! scope="col" style="width:5em;"| PSOE ! scope="col" style="width:5em;"| Vox ! scope="col" style="width:5em;"| UP ! rowspan="2" scope="col" style="width:5em;"| Audience ! rowspan="2"| {{abbr|Ref.|References}} |
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}};"|
! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Más Madrid}};"| ! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of the Community of Madrid}};"| ! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}};"| ! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Unidas Podemos}};"| |
style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| 9 May
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| Cuatro | style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| Risto Mejide | style="background:#D0F0C0;"| S | {{Yes|P | {{Yes|P | {{No|A}} | {{Yes|P | 4.4% | {{cite news |date=2 May 2023 |title=Cuatro emitirá el primer debate por las Elecciones a la Asamblea de Madrid con Risto Mejide |url=https://www.elconfidencial.com/television/programas-tv/2023-05-02/todo-es-mentira-debate-elecciones-madrid-risto_3621530/ |language=es |newspaper=El Confidencial |access-date=2 May 2023}} |
style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| 16 May
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| Telemadrid | style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| Víctor Arribas | {{Yes|P | {{Yes|P | {{Yes|P | {{Yes|P | {{Yes|P | 9.7% | |
style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| 24 May
| style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| RTVE | style="white-space:nowrap; text-align:left;"| Xabier Fortes | style="background:#D0F0C0;"| S | {{Yes|P | {{Yes|P | {{Yes|P | {{Yes|P | 8.7% | {{cite news |date=9 May 2023 |title=RTVE emitirá cinco debates durante la campaña de elecciones autonómicas y municipales del 28 de mayo |url=https://www.rtve.es/rtve/20230509/rtve-emitira-cinco-debates-campana-elecciones-municipales-autonomicas-28-mayo/2444956.shtml |language=es |publisher=RTVE |access-date=9 May 2023}} |
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
=Graphical summary=
{{wide image|OpinionPollingMadridRegionalElection2023.svg|750px|Local regression trend line of poll results from 4 May 2021 to 28 May 2023, with each line corresponding to a political party.}}
=Voting intention estimates=
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Madrid (69 until January 2023).
;{{smaller|Color key:}}
{{smaller|{{legend2|#FFEAEA|Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls|border=1px solid #AAAAAA}}}}
class="wikitable collapsible collapsed" style="text-align:center; font-size:95%; line-height:16px;" |
style="height:42px;"
! style="width:250px;" rowspan="2"| Polling firm/Commissioner ! style="width:125px;" rowspan="2"| Fieldwork date ! style="width:50px;" rowspan="2"| Sample size ! style="width:45px;" rowspan="2"| Turnout ! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo PP Comunidad de Madrid 2022.svg ! style="width:35px;"| File:Más Madrid - Verdes Equo Elecciones Madrid 2023.png ! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo PSOE-M.png ! style="width:35px;"| File:VOX logo.svg ! style="width:35px;"| File:Isotipo de Unidas Podemos (2023).svg ! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo de Ciudadanos reducido (2023).svg ! style="width:30px;" rowspan="2"| Lead |
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}};"|
! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Más Madrid}};"| ! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of the Community of Madrid}};"| ! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}};"| ! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Unidas Podemos}};"| ! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Citizens (Spanish political party)}};"| |
---|
colspan="11" style="background:#A0A0A0"| |
style="background:#EFEFEF;"
| 28 May 2023 | {{N/A}} | 65.5 | {{Party shading/PP}}| 47.3 | 18.4 | 18.2 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 28.9 |
colspan="11" style="background:#A0A0A0"| |
style="background:#FFEAEA;"
| 12–27 May 2023 |? |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 49.5 | 14.3 | 20.2 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 1.9 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 29.3 |
NC Report/La Razón{{cite web |title=Elecciones autonómicas: El PP arrebataría al PSOE la Comunidad Valenciana, Castilla-La Mancha y La Rioja |url=https://www.larazon.es/espana/elecciones-autonomicas-arrebataria-psoe-comunidad-valenciana-castillala-mancha-rioja_20230522646a68d0910a1b0001cf9f5f.html |language=es |work=La Razón |date=22 May 2023}}
| 22 May 2023 |? |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 48.3 | 18.4 | 17.3 | 8.7 | 4.9 | – | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 29.9 |
Data10/OKDiario{{cite web |title=Ayuso acaricia la mayoría absoluta y Podemos está al borde de quedarse sin escaños |url=https://okdiario.com/espana/ayuso-acaricia-mayoria-absoluta-podemos-esta-borde-quedarse-sin-escanos-10958068 |language=es |work=OKDiario |date=22 May 2023}}
| 19–22 May 2023 | 1,500 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 48.5 | 17.9 | 17.7 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 1.0 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 30.6 |
Target Point/El Debate{{cite web |title=Ayuso roza como nunca la mayoría absoluta: 60.000 indecisos de Podemos tienen la última palabra |url=https://www.eldebate.com/espana/20230521/ayuso-roza-como-nunca-mayoria-absoluta-60-000-indecisos-podemos-tienen-ultima-palabra_116138.html |language=es |work=El Debate |date=21 May 2023}}
| 15–19 May 2023 | 800 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 48.0 | 19.2 | 16.7 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 1.3 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 28.8 |
KeyData/Público{{cite web |title=Podemos-IU mantendría su presencia en la Asamblea de Madrid y frustraría la mayoría absoluta de Ayuso |url=https://www.publico.es/politica/iu-mantendria-presencia-asamblea-madrid-frustraria-mayoria-absoluta-ayuso.html |language=es |work=Público |date=20 May 2023}}
| 18 May 2023 |? | 67.0 | {{Party shading/PP}}| 47.2 | 18.8 | 17.2 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 28.4 |
DYM/Henneo{{cite web |title=Díaz Ayuso amplía su mayoría para gobernar sin Vox y roza la absoluta |url=https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/5129959/0/diaz-ayuso-amplia-su-mayoria-para-gobernar-sin-vox-y-roza-la-absoluta/ |language=es |work=20 minutos |date=22 May 2023}}
| 15–18 May 2023 |? |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 47.6 | 17.9 | 18.1 | 9.0 | 5.2 | – | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 29.5 |
Celeste-Tel/Onda Cero{{cite web |title=Podemos se quedaría fuera de la Asamblea de Madrid y Ayuso conseguiría la mayoría absoluta, según una encuesta |url=https://www.ondacero.es/elecciones/autonomicas/elecciones-asamblea-madrid-podemos-ayuso-segun-encuesta_202305196467579e277db7000162bf8c.html |language=es |work=Onda Cero |date=19 May 2023}}
| 12–18 May 2023 |? |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 47.9 | 18.9 | 17.0 | 8.5 | 4.7 | – | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 29.0 |
40dB/Prisa{{cite web |title=Tenso sprint final en Madrid: Ayuso lucha por la mayoría absoluta y Podemos por entrar en la Asamblea, según el sondeo de 40dB |url=https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones-madrid/2023-05-21/tenso-sprint-final-en-madrid-ayuso-lucha-por-la-mayoria-absoluta-y-podemos-por-entrar-en-la-asamblea-segun-el-sondeo-de-40db.html |language=es |work=El País |date=21 May 2023}}{{cite web |title=2º Informe preelectoral para Comunidad de Madrid. Mayo 2023 |url=https://ep00.epimg.net/infografias/encuestas40db/2023CMad_CVal/Informe_CAM2.pdf |language=es |work=40dB |date=21 May 2023}}
| 12–17 May 2023 | 1,200 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 46.8 | 18.8 | 17.6 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 2.1 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 28.0 |
ElectoPanel/El Plural{{cite web |title=Un posible 'sorpasso' y la resistencia de Podemos en el Madrid de Ayuso, clave en el último pronóstico electoral |url=https://www.elplural.com/politica/espana/posible-sorpasso-resistencia-podemos-madrid-ayuso-clave-ultimo-pronostico-electoral_310995102 |language=es |work=El Plural |date=20 May 2023}}{{cite web |title=EP Autonómico (20My – Final): nos espera un 28M de infarto |url=https://electomania.es/ep-autonomico-20my-final-nos-espera-un-28m-de-infarto/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=20 May 2023}}
| 11–17 May 2023 | 600 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 46.1 | 19.7 | 18.5 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.5 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 26.4 |
Sigma Dos/Antena 3{{cite web |title=El PP ganaría las elecciones en la Comunidad de Madrid pero no conseguiría la mayoría absoluta, según el sondeo de Sigma Dos |url=https://www.antena3.com/noticias/elecciones/municipales-autonomicas/ganaria-elecciones-comunidad-madrid-pero-conseguiria-mayoria-absoluta-segun-sondeo-sigma-dos_202305146460e0beea319400017b0515.html |language=es |work=Antena 3 |date=14 May 2023}}
| 14 May 2023 |? |? | {{Party shading/PP}}|? | 17.9 | 17.6 |? | 6.0 |? | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"|? |
SocioMétrica/El Español{{cite web |title=Ayuso lograría la mayoría absoluta, no necesitaría a Vox y el PSOE quedaría por detrás de Más Madrid |url=https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20230522/ayuso-lograria-no-necesitaria-vox-psoe-madrid/765673732_0.html |language=es |work=El Español |date=22 May 2023}}
| 8–14 May 2023 |? |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 46.6 | 19.2 | 17.1 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.8 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 27.4 |
Hamalgama Métrica/Vozpópuli{{cite web |title=Ayuso se dispara a la mayoría absoluta gracias a Bolaños y a los etarras de Bildu |url=https://www.vozpopuli.com/espana/ayuso-mayoria-absoluta-bolanos-etarras-bildu.html |language=es |work=Vozpópuli |date=21 May 2023}}
| 8–12 May 2023 | 1,000 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 47.8 | 18.8 | 17.2 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.0 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 29.0 |
Simple Lógica/elDiario.es{{cite web |title=Ayuso roza la mayoría absoluta, Podemos aguanta y Más Madrid volverá a liderar la izquierda en la Comunidad |url=https://www.eldiario.es/madrid/ayuso-roza-mayoria-absoluta-aguanta-madrid-volvera-liderar-izquierda-comunidad_1_10213491.html |language=es |work=elDiario.es |date=18 May 2023}}
| 8–12 May 2023 | 903 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 46.7 | 19.8 | 16.6 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 1.2 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 26.9 |
Sigma Dos/El Mundo{{cite web |title=La recuperación de Podemos complica la mayoría absoluta a Ayuso |url=https://www.elmundo.es/espana/encuestas/2023/05/15/64627a8e21efa085498b458b.html |language=es |work=El Mundo |date=16 May 2023}}
| 8–11 May 2023 | 1,068 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 47.1 | 18.3 | 17.5 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 2.5 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 28.8 |
ElectoPanel/El Plural{{cite web |title=A diferencia de la encuesta del CIS, el último ElectoPanel no es tan favorable para Ayuso y el PP de Madrid |url=https://www.elplural.com/politica/diferencia-encuesta-cis-ultimo-electopanel-no-tan-favorable-ayuso-pp-madrid_310720102 |language=es |work=El Plural |date=13 May 2023}}{{cite web |title=ElectoPanel Autonómico (13M) |url=https://electomania.es/ep-autonomico-13m-exclusivo-patrones/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=13 May 2023}}
| 4–10 May 2023 | 600 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 46.3 | 20.4 | 17.1 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.5 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 25.9 |
GAD3/Community of Madrid{{cite web |title=Estudio de investigación: Encuesta socio-electoral en la Comunidad de Madrid. 9 de mayo de 2023 |url=https://www.comunidad.madrid/transparencia/sites/default/files/open-data/downloads/encuesta_socio-electoral_cm_mayo_2023.pdf |language=es |work=Community of Madrid |date=9 May 2023}}
| 3–4 May 2023 | 1,012 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 47.5 | 16.3 | 19.4 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 1.3 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 28.1 |
40dB/Prisa{{cite web |title=Ayuso se encamina hacia la mayoría absoluta en Madrid por el desplome de Podemos-IU, según una encuesta de 40dB |url=https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones-madrid/2023-05-08/ayuso-se-encamina-hacia-la-mayoria-absoluta-en-madrid-por-el-desplome-de-podemos-iu-segun-una-encuesta-de-40db.html |language=es |work=El País |date=8 May 2023}}{{cite web |title=Informe preelectoral para Comunidad de Madrid. Mayo 2023 |url=https://ep00.epimg.net/infografias/encuestas40db/2023CMad_CVal/Informe_CAM.pdf |language=es |work=40dB |date=8 May 2023}}
| 28 Apr–3 May 2023 | 1,200 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 46.6 | 17.7 | 18.3 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 2.2 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 28.3 |
ElectoPanel/El Plural{{cite web |title=El último ElectoPanel de Madrid no coincide con lo que dicen muchas encuestas sobre Ayuso |url=https://www.elplural.com/politica/ultimo-electopanel-madrid-no-coincide-dicen-muchos-sondeos-ayuso_310347102 |language=es |work=El Plural |date=6 May 2023}}{{cite web |title=ElectoPanel Autonómico (6M) |url=https://electomania.es/ep-autonomico-6m-23/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=6 May 2023}}
| 26 Apr–3 May 2023 | 600 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 46.3 | 20.5 | 17.0 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.5 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 25.8 |
NC Report/La Razón{{cite web |title=Ayuso lograría la mayoría absoluta en Madrid mientras Podemos quedaría al borde del abismo |url=https://www.larazon.es/madrid/ayuso-lograra-mayoria-absoluta-madrid-mientras-podemos-queda-borde-abismo_20230502644fdcec2a35640001ed7d9e.html |language=es |work=La Razón |date=2 May 2023}}
| 2 May 2023 |? | 69.1 | {{Party shading/PP}}| 48.1 | 18.3 | 17.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.5 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 29.8 |
SocioMétrica/El Español{{cite web |title=El avance de Ayuso en el 'cinturón rojo' de Madrid aumenta sus opciones de mayoría absoluta el 28-M |url=https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20230502/ayuso-cinturon-madrid-aumenta-opciones-mayoria-absoluta/760424081_0.html |language=es |work=El Español |date=2 May 2023}}
| 27–30 Apr 2023 | 1,000 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 45.8 | 20.6 | 16.4 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 25.2 |
KeyData/Público{{cite web |title=Ayuso tendrá difícil lograr la mayoría absoluta si Podemos-IU se mantienen en la Asamblea de Madrid |url=https://www.publico.es/politica/ayuso-mayoria-absoluta-iu-mantienen-asamblea-madrid.html |language=es |work=Público |date=1 May 2023}}
| 28 Apr 2023 |? | 66.3 | {{Party shading/PP}}| 46.7 | 18.9 | 17.3 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.5 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 27.8 |
Data10/OKDiario{{cite web |title=Ayuso atrapa una holgada mayoría absoluta, triplica los escaños del PSOE y deja a Podemos sin diputados |url=https://okdiario.com/espana/ayuso-atrapa-holgada-mayoria-absoluta-triplica-escanos-del-psoe-deja-podemos-sin-diputados-10845182 |language=es |work=OKDiario |date=2 May 2023}}
| 26–28 Apr 2023 | 1,500 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 47.2 | 18.9 | 17.0 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 28.3 |
CIS{{cite web |title=Preelectoral elecciones municipales y autonómicas 2023. Comunidad de Madrid (Estudio nº 3402. Abril 2023) |url=https://www.cis.es/cis/export/sites/default/-Archivos/Estudios/3402_PreEAM/Es3402marEA_13CMadrid_A.pdf |language=es |work=CIS |date=11 May 2023}}{{cite web |title=Estimación de voto. Municipios, grandes ciudades y Comunidades Autónomas (Estudio nº 3402. Abril 2023) |url=https://www.cis.es/cis/export/sites/default/-Archivos/Estudios/3402_PreEAM/3402_EstimacionEAM.pdf |language=es |work=CIS |date=11 May 2023}}
| 10–26 Apr 2023 | 3,057 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 45.2 | 21.4 | 17.3 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 0.7 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 23.8 |
ElectoPanel/El Plural{{cite web |title=Comunidad de Madrid / Ayuso no alcanzaría la mayoría absoluta, pero superaría la suma de las fuerzas de izquierda |url=https://www.elplural.com/politica/comunidad-madrid-ayuso-no-alcanzaria-mayoria-absoluta-superaria-izquierda_310028102 |language=es |work=El Plural |date=29 April 2023}}{{cite web |title=ElectoPanel Autonómico (29A) |url=https://electomania.es/ep-autonomico-29a-exclusivo-patronest/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=29 April 2023}}
| 19–25 Apr 2023 | 600 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 45.4 | 20.3 | 16.6 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 25.1 |
SocioMétrica/El Español{{cite web |title=Ayuso alcanza el 46% del voto: lograría la mayoría absoluta si Podemos queda fuera de la Asamblea |url=https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20230423/ayuso-alcanza-lograria-mayoria-absoluta-podemos-asamblea/757924561_0.html |language=es |work=El Español |date=23 April 2023}}{{cite web |title=[AUT] COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SocioMétrica 23/04/2023: PODEMOS-IU 5,1% (7), MÁS MADRID 19,2% (27), PSOE 17,1% (24), Cs 1,9%, PP 46,0% (65), VOX 8,8% (12) |url=https://www.electografica.com/2023/03/comunidad-de-madrid-encuesta-sociometrica-230306.html |language=es |work=Electográfica |date=23 April 2023}}
| 17–21 Apr 2023 | 1,200 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 46.0 | 19.2 | 17.1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 1.9 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 26.8 |
ElectoPanel/El Plural{{cite web |title=Comunidad de Madrid / Ayuso supera en tres diputados la suma de la izquierda |url=https://www.elplural.com/politica/comunidad-madrid-ayuso-supera-tres-diputados-suma-izquierda_309596102 |language=es |work=El Plural |date=23 April 2023}}{{cite web |title=ElectoPanel Autonómico (22A) |url=https://electomania.es/electopanel-autonomico-22a-exclusivo-patrones/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=22 April 2023}}
| 12–18 Apr 2023 | 600 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 45.7 | 21.0 | 16.4 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 2.0 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 24.7 |
GAD3/ABC{{cite web |title=Ayuso impulsa al PP hasta la mayoría absoluta en la Comunidad de Madrid 12 años después |url=https://www.abc.es/espana/ayuso-impulsa-pp-mayoria-absoluta-comunidad-madrid-20230417231759-nt.html |language=es |work=ABC |date=17 April 2023}}{{cite web |title=Ayuso alcanza la mayoría absoluta |url=https://www.abc.es/espana/ayuso-alcanza-mayoria-absoluta-20230514230815-nt.html |language=es |work=ABC |date=13 May 2023}}
| 11–12 Apr 2023 | 1,000 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 48.5 | 16.8 | 18.3 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 1.0 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 30.2 |
Sigma Dos/El Mundo{{cite web |title=Ayuso alcanza la mayoría absoluta a costa del bajón de Vox |url=https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2023/04/14/643984b5fdddff74088b457a.html |language=es |work=El Mundo |date=15 April 2023}}{{cite web |title=[AUT] COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SigmaDos 15/04/2023: PODEMOS-IU 5,1% (6/7), MÁS MADRID 19,1% (26/27), PSOE 17,1% (24/25), Cs 1,5%, PP 48,2% (68/69), VOX 7,8% (10/11) |url=https://www.electografica.com/2023/04/comunidad-de-madrid-encuesta-sigmados-230415.html |language=es |work=Electográfica |date=15 April 2023}}
| 7–12 Apr 2023 | 1,140 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 48.2 | 19.1 | 17.1 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 1.5 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 29.1 |
ElectoPanel/El Plural{{cite web |title=ElectoPanel Comunidad de Madrid / Ayuso sigue sin alcanzar la mayoría absoluta aunque la derecha arrasa |url=https://www.elplural.com/politica/espana/electopanel-comunidad-madrid-ayuso-sigue-sin-alcanzar-mayoria-absoluta-derecha-arrasa_309224102 |language=es |work=El Plural |date=15 April 2023}}{{cite web |title=ElectoPanel Autonómico (15A) – varias CCAA en un puño |url=https://electomania.es/electopanel-autonomico-15a-varias-ccaa-en-un-puno/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=15 April 2023}}
| 5–11 Apr 2023 | 600 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 45.8 | 21.4 | 15.8 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 24.4 |
ElectoPanel/El Plural{{cite web |title=ElectoPanel Comunidad de Madrid / Podemos resiste y Ayuso no logra mayoría absoluta |url=https://www.elplural.com/politica/electopanel-madrid-podemos-resiste-ayuso-no-mayoria-absoluta_308850102 |language=es |work=El Plural |date=8 April 2023}}{{cite web |title=EP Autonómico 8A – comienza el juego |url=https://electomania.es/ep-autonomico-8a23-comienza-el-juego/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=8 April 2023}}
| 27 Mar–4 Apr 2023 | 600 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 45.9 | 21.3 | 15.8 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 24.6 |
IMOP/El Confidencial{{cite web |title=La desaparición de Podemos en Madrid entregaría la mayoría absoluta a Díaz Ayuso |url=https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/observatorio-electoral/2023-03-27/podemos-desaparicion-madrid-entrega-ayuso-mayoria_3599641/ |language=es |work=El Confidencial |date=27 March 2023}}
| 21–24 Mar 2023 | 1,213 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 46.4 | 19.0 | 17.3 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.5 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 27.4 |
KeyData/Público{{cite web |title=Ayuso sigue sin conseguir la deseada mayoría absoluta y necesitaría a Vox para gobernar |url=https://www.publico.es/politica/ayuso-sigue-deseada-mayoria-absoluta-necesitaria-vox-gobernar.html |language=es |work=Público |date=19 March 2023}}
| 15 Mar 2023 |? | 66.5 | {{Party shading/PP}}| 46.4 | 18.6 | 16.7 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 1.9 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 27.8 |
SocioMétrica/El Español{{cite web |title=Ayuso, a un paso de no depender de Vox: se acerca a la mayoría absoluta con Mónica García segunda |url=https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20230306/ayuso-no-depender-vox-absoluta-monica-garcia/746175498_0.html |language=es |work=El Español |date=6 March 2023}}{{cite web |title=[AUT] COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SocioMétrica 06/03/2023: PODEMOS-IU 6,0% (7/8), MÁS MADRID 19,1% (26/28), PSOE 16,0% (22/23), Cs 2,1%, PP 46,3% (65/67), VOX 9,2% (12/13) |url=https://www.electografica.com/2023/03/comunidad-de-madrid-encuesta-sociometrica-230306.html |language=es |work=Electográfica |date=6 March 2023}}
| 27 Feb–3 Mar 2023 | 1,200 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 46.3 | 19.1 | 16.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 27.2 |
ElectoPanel/Electomanía{{cite web |title=CAMPanel (28Feb): Ayuso sigue inalcanzable, subida de Más Madrid |url=https://electomania.es/campanel28f23/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=28 February 2023}}
| 15 Jan–26 Feb 2023 | 2,348 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 45.2 | 21.6 | 15.7 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.9 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 23.6 |
Data10/OKDiario{{cite web |title=Ayuso aventaja en 10 escaños a toda la izquierda junta pese a su intento de derribarla con la Sanidad |url=https://okdiario.com/espana/ayuso-aventaja-10-escanos-toda-izquierda-junta-pese-intento-derribarla-sanidad-10469689 |language=es |work=OK Diario |date=20 February 2023}}
| 8–16 Feb 2023 | 1,500 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 46.8 | 18.3 | 17.1 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 1.8 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 28.5 |
ElectoPanel/Electomanía{{cite web |title=EP Com. Madrid (15E): Ayuso alcanza el 45% del voto |url=https://electomania.es/epcam15e23/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=15 January 2023}}
| 30 Nov–12 Jan 2023 | 1,601 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 45.0 | 21.5 | 15.9 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 23.5 |
GAD3/Community of Madrid{{cite web |title=Estudio de investigación: Encuesta socio-electoral en la Comunidad de Madrid. 22 de diciembre de 2022 |url=https://www.comunidad.madrid/transparencia/sites/default/files/open-data/downloads/socioelectoral_cm_transparencia.pdf |language=es |work=Community of Madrid |date=11 January 2023}}
| 12–14 Dec 2022 | 1,003 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 46.5 | 17.2 | 18.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.7 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 28.2 |
CIS{{efn|Vote+Simpathy figures with undecided and/or abstentionists excluded.}}{{cite web |title=Macroencuesta sobre tendencias en voto autonómico (Estudio nº 3386. Noviembre-diciembre 2022) |url=https://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3386ccaa_A.pdf |language=es |work=CIS |date=22 December 2022}}{{cite web |title=Estimación de escaños elecciones autonómicas (Estudio nº 3386. Macroencuesta sobre tendencias en voto autonómico) |url=https://datos.cis.es/pdf/3386_EstimacionEAEG.pdf |language=es |work=CIS |date=22 December 2022}}
| 17 Nov–2 Dec 2022 | 1,573 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 39.9 | 15.0 | 22.6 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 3.1 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 17.3 |
Data10/OKDiario{{cite web |title=Ayuso sigue imparable: suma 9 escaños más que toda la izquierda junta tras la manifestación contra ella |url=https://okdiario.com/espana/ayuso-sigue-imparable-suma-9-escanos-mas-que-toda-izquierda-junta-protesta-contra-9992285 |language=es |work=OK Diario |date=15 November 2022}}
| 15 Nov 2022 | 1,000 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 45.6 | 19.1 | 15.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 1.7 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 26.5 |
Data10/OKDiario{{cite web |title=Ayuso sin rival: triplica en escaños al PSOE y aventaja en 13 diputados a toda la izquierda junta |url=https://okdiario.com/espana/ayuso-sin-rival-triplica-escanos-psoe-aventaja-13-diputados-toda-izquierda-junta-9930046 |language=es |work=OK Diario |date=6 November 2022}}
| 31 Oct–3 Nov 2022 | 1,000 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 47.1 | 18.6 | 15.7 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 1.7 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 28.5 |
Sigma Dos/El Mundo{{cite web |title=Ayuso ya roza la mayoría absoluta en la Comunidad de Madrid |url=https://www.elmundo.es/espana/encuestas/2022/11/06/6367936e21efa0100b8b45bb.html |language=es |work=El Mundo |date=7 November 2022}}{{cite web |title=COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SigmaDos 07/11/2022: PODEMOS-IU 5,3% (7), MÁS MADRID 17,9% (26), PSOE 16,4% (23), Cs 2,4%, PP 47,4% (68), VOX 8,8% (12) |url=https://www.electografica.com/2022/11/comunidad-de-madrid-encuesta-sigmados-221107.html |language=es |work=Electográfica |date=7 November 2022}}
| 25 Oct–3 Nov 2022 | 996 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 47.4 | 17.9 | 16.4 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 29.5 |
Data10/OKDiario{{cite web |title=Ayuso alcanza la mayoría absoluta, triplica en escaños y votos al PSOE y deja a Podemos sin diputados |url=https://okdiario.com/espana/ayuso-alcanza-mayoria-absoluta-triplica-escanos-votos-psoe-deja-podemos-sin-diputados-9639932 |language=es |work=OK Diario |date=11 September 2022}}
| 7–8 Sep 2022 | 1,000 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 46.9 | 20.9 | 14.6 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 1.3 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 26.0 |
Hamalgama Métrica/Vozpópuli{{cite web |title=Ayuso roza ya la mayoría absoluta y sube dos escaños a costa de la caída de PSOE y Podemos |url=https://www.vozpopuli.com/espana/ayuso-mayoria-psoe-podemos-madrid.html |language=es |work=Vozpópuli |date=12 September 2022}}
| 2–8 Sep 2022 | 1,000 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 46.6 | 18.0 | 15.9 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 1.9 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 28.6 |
SocioMétrica/El Español{{cite web |title=Ayuso rozaría la mayoría absoluta en 2023 y Más Madrid consumaría su 'sorpasso' al PSOE |url=https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20220501/ayuso-rozaria-absoluta-madrid-consumaria-sorpasso-psoe/668683153_0.html |language=es |work=El Español |date=1 May 2022}}{{cite web |title=COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SocioMétrica 01/05/2022: PODEMOS-IU 5,4% (7), MÁS MADRID 20,1% (28), PSOE 14,9% (21), Cs 2,1%, PP 46,1% (66), VOX 10,0% (14) |url=https://www.electograph.com/2022/05/comunidad-madrid-encuesta-sociometrica-220501.html |language=es |work=Electograph |date=1 May 2022}}
| 26–29 Apr 2022 | 1,200 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 46.1 | 20.1 | 14.9 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 26.0 |
NC Report/La Razón{{cite web |title=Ayuso, más cerca de la mayoría absoluta un año después del 4-M |url=https://www.larazon.es/madrid/20220502/xtospqmecvecldlgrmp3wzsira.html |language=es |work=La Razón |date=2 May 2022}}
| 25–29 Apr 2022 | 1,000 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 45.5 | 18.2 | 15.5 | 10.1 | 6.2 | – | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 27.3 |
Sigma Dos/El Mundo{{cite web |title=Encuesta Sigma Dos: Ayuso blinda su electorado y reafirma su perfil nacional "callejero" |url=https://www.elmundo.es/espana/encuestas/2022/05/01/626e7628e4d4d8ec428b45fb.html |language=es |work=El Mundo |date=1 May 2022}}{{cite web |title=COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SigmaDos 02/05/2022: PODEMOS-IU 5,7% (8), MÁS MADRID 16,6% (24), PSOE 17,7% (25), Cs 2,6%, PP 44,8% (64), VOX 10,6% (15) |url=https://www.electograph.com/2022/05/comunidad-madrid-encuesta-sigmados-220502.html |language=es |work=Electograph |date=2 May 2022}}
| 25–28 Apr 2022 | 1,600 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 44.8 | 16.6 | 17.7 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 2.6 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 27.1 |
Data10/OKDiario{{cite web |title=Ayuso sigue intratable en Madrid: aventaja en 7 escaños a toda la izquierda junta |url=https://okdiario.com/espana/ayuso-sigue-intratable-madrid-aventaja-7-escanos-toda-izquierda-junta-8952132 |language=es |work=OK Diario |date=24 April 2022}}
| 19–21 Apr 2022 | 2,000 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 44.7 | 19.4 | 15.7 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.3 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 25.3 |
ElectoPanel/Electomanía{{cite web |title=CAMPanel (18F): ligera subida de la izquierda, pero Ayuso apenas se resiente |url=https://electomania.es/campanel18f22/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=18 February 2022}}
| 17–18 Feb 2022 | 1,208 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 44.0 | 20.5 | 17.0 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 2.5 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 23.5 |
IMOP/El Confidencial{{cite web |title=Ayuso arrasa en Madrid: saca 15 puntos más en autonómicas que Casado en las generales |url=https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/observatorio-electoral/2021-11-17/ayuso-arrasa-madrid-autonomicas-casado-generales_3325537/ |language=es |work=El Confidencial |date=17 November 2021}}{{cite web |title=COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta IMOP Insights 17/11/2021: PODEMOS-IU 5,7% (8), MÁS MADRID 17,9% (25), PSOE 16,1% (23), Cs 2,3%, PP 47,3% (67), VOX 9,3% (13) |url=https://www.electograph.com/2021/11/comunidad-de-madrid-encuesta-imop-insights-211117.html |language=es |work=Electograph |date=17 November 2021}}
| 10–11 Nov 2021 | 710 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 47.3 | 17.9 | 16.1 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 29.4 |
Sigma Dos/El Mundo{{cite web |title=Almeida crece pero se queda lejos de la gran mayoría que mantiene Ayuso |url=https://www.elmundo.es/espana/encuestas/2021/11/08/6189667ee4d4d8334a8b45ad.html |language=es |work=El Mundo |date=9 November 2021}}{{cite web |title=COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SigmaDos 09/11/2021: PODEMOS-IU 6,4% (9), MÁS MADRID 18,1% (25), PSOE 16,3% (23), Cs 2,9%, PP 46,2% (66), VOX 9,3% (13) |url=https://www.electograph.com/2021/11/comunidad-de-madrid-encuesta-sigmados-211109.html |language=es |work=Electograph |date=9 November 2021}}
| 3–6 Nov 2021 | 1,224 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 46.2 | 18.1 | 16.3 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 28.1 |
ElectoPanel/Electomanía{{cite web |title=CAMPanel (31Ag): Ayuso lograría hoy la mayoría absoluta |url=https://electomania.es/campanel31ag21/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=31 August 2021}}
| 13 Jul–21 Aug 2021 | 1,239 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 45.8 | 19.8 | 16.6 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 26.0 |
colspan="11" style="background:#A0A0A0"| |
style="background:#EFEFEF;"
| 4 May 2021 | {{N/A}} | 71.7 | {{Party shading/PP}}| 44.8 | 17.0 | 16.8 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 3.6 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 27.8 |
colspan="11" style="background:#A0A0A0"| |
=Voting preferences=
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
class="wikitable collapsible collapsed" style="text-align:center; font-size:90%; line-height:14px;" |
style="height:42px;"
! style="width:250px;" rowspan="2"| Polling firm/Commissioner ! style="width:125px;" rowspan="2"| Fieldwork date ! style="width:50px;" rowspan="2"| Sample size ! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo del PP (2022).svg ! style="width:35px;"| File:Más Madrid - Verdes Equo Elecciones Madrid 2023.png ! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo PSOE-M.png ! style="width:35px;"| File:VOX logo.svg ! style="width:35px;"| File:Isotipo de Unidas Podemos (2023).svg ! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo de Ciudadanos reducido (2023).svg ! style="width:35px;" rowspan="2"| {{Qmark}} ! style="width:35px;" rowspan="2"| {{cross}} ! style="width:30px;" rowspan="2"| Lead |
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}};"|
! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Más Madrid}};"| ! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of the Community of Madrid}};"| ! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}};"| ! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Unidas Podemos}};"| ! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Citizens (Spanish political party)}};"| |
---|
colspan="12" style="background:#A0A0A0"| |
style="background:#EFEFEF;"
| 28 May 2023 | {{N/A}} | {{Party shading/PP}}| 32.8 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | {{N/A}} | 30.1 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 20.1 |
colspan="12" style="background:#A0A0A0"| |
40dB/Prisa
| 12–17 May 2023 | 1,200 | {{Party shading/PP}}| 34.2 | 13.3 | 16.1 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 12.6 | 4.4 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 18.1 |
40dB/Prisa
| 26 Apr–3 May 2023 | 1,200 | {{Party shading/PP}}| 34.5 | 13.0 | 15.5 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 12.2 | 4.5 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 19.0 |
CIS
| 10–26 Apr 2023 | 3,057 | {{Party shading/PP}}| 35.3 | 16.1 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 20.4 | 2.3 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 19.2 |
PSOE{{cite web |title=Una encuesta interna del PSOE vaticina el 'sorpasso' socialista a Más Madrid el 28M |url=https://www.elplural.com/autonomias/encuesta-interna-psoe-vaticina-sorpasso-socialista-mas-madrid_310151102 |language=es |work=El Plural |date=3 May 2023}}
| 15–17 Apr 2023 | 2,000 | {{Party shading/PP}}| 29.5 | 12.9 | 15.3 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | – | – | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 14.2 |
PSOE
| Feb 2023 |? | {{Party shading/PP}}| 31.8 | 16.5 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 2.3 | – | – | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 15.3 |
CIS
| 17 Nov–2 Dec 2022 | 1,573 | {{Party shading/PP}}| 31.1 | 10.9 | 15.3 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 24.8 | 2.2 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 15.8 |
colspan="12" style="background:#A0A0A0"| |
style="background:#EFEFEF;"
| 4 May 2021 | {{N/A}} | {{Party shading/PP}}| 33.9 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.7 | {{N/A}} | 23.7 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 21.0 |
colspan="12" style="background:#A0A0A0"| |
=Preferred President=
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Community of Madrid.
class="wikitable collapsible collapsed" style="text-align:center; font-size:90%; line-height:14px;" |
style="height:42px;"
! style="width:250px;" rowspan="3"| Polling firm/Commissioner ! style="width:125px;" rowspan="3"| Fieldwork date ! style="width:50px;" rowspan="3"| Sample size ! style="width:55px;"| 50px ! style="width:55px;"| 50px ! style="width:35px;"| 50px ! style="width:55px;"| 50px ! style="width:55px;"| 50px ! style="width:55px;"| 50px ! style="width:55px;" rowspan="3"| Other/ ! style="width:55px;" rowspan="3"| {{Qmark}} ! style="width:30px;" rowspan="3"| Lead |
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}};"|
! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Más Madrid}};"| ! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of the Community of Madrid}};"| ! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}};"| ! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Unidas Podemos}};"| ! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Citizens (Spanish political party)}};"| |
---|
{{small|Ayuso {{small|PP}}}} ! {{small|García ! {{small|Lobato ! {{small|Monasterio ! {{small|Jacinto ! {{small|Gómez |
40dB/Prisa
| 12–17 May 2023 | 1,200 | {{Party shading/PP}}| 42.3 | 16.6 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 7.2 | 7.9 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 25.7 |
40dB/Prisa
| 26 Apr–3 May 2023 | 1,200 | {{Party shading/PP}}| 43.0 | 16.6 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 7.6 | 7.2 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 26.4 |
SocioMétrica/El Español
| 17–21 Apr 2023 | 1,200 | {{Party shading/PP}}| 52.1 | 20.8 | 15.4 | 7.8 | 3.9 | – | – | – | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 31.3 |
GAD3/ABC{{cite web |title=Los votantes de Vox en Madrid prefieren a Ayuso y Almeida como presidenta y alcalde |url=https://www.abc.es/espana/votantes-vox-madrid-prefieren-ayuso-almeida-presidenta-20230418180220-nt.html |language=es |work=ABC |date=17 April 2023}}
| 11–12 Apr 2023 | 1,000 | {{Party shading/PP}}| 47.9 | 16.9 | 10.6 | 2.9 | 3.1 | – | colspan="2"| 18.6 | style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}; color:white;"| 31.0 |
Results
=Overall=
class="wikitable" style="text-align:right;"
|+ ← Summary of the 28 May 2023 Assembly of Madrid election results → | |||
colspan="7"| File:MadridAssemblyDiagram2023.svg | |||
style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2" colspan="2" width="525"| Parties and alliances
! colspan="3"| Popular vote ! colspan="2"| Seats | |||
---|---|---|---|
width="75"| Votes
! width="45"| % ! width="45"| ±pp ! width="35"| Total ! width="35"| +/− | |||
width="1" style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}"|
| align="left"| People's Party (PP) | 1,599,186 | 47.32 | style="color:green;"| +2.56
| 70 | style="color:green;"| +5 |
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Más Madrid}}"|
| align="left"| More Madrid–Greens Equo (MM–VQ) | 620,631 | 18.36 | style="color:green;"| +1.37
| 27 | style="color:green;"| +3 |
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of the Community of Madrid}}"|
| align="left"| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 614,296 | 18.18 | style="color:green;"| +1.38
| 27 | style="color:green;"| +3 |
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}}"|
| align="left"| Vox (Vox) | 248,379 | 7.35 | style="color:red;"| –1.80
| 11 | style="color:red;"| –2 |
colspan="7" bgcolor="#C0C0C0"| | |||
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Unidas Podemos}}"|
| align="left"| We Can–United Left–Green Alliance (Podemos–IU–AV) | 161,032 | 4.76 | style="color:red;"| –2.48
| 0 | style="color:red;"| –10 |
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Citizens (Spanish political party)}}"|
| align="left"| Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS) | 52,925 | 1.57 | style="color:red;"| –2.00
| 0 | ±0 |
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Animalist Party with the Environment}}"|
| align="left"| Animalist Party with the Environment (PACMA)1 | 23,451 | 0.69 | style="color:green;"| +0.26
| 0 | ±0 |
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|For a Fairer World}}"|
| align="left"| For a Fairer World (PUM+J) | 7,219 | 0.21 | style="color:green;"| +0.14
| 0 | ±0 |
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Feminist Party of Spain}}"|
| align="left"| Feminist Party of Spain (PFE) | 5,376 | 0.16 | New
| 0 | ±0 |
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Communist Party of the Workers of Spain}}"|
| align="left"| Communist Party of the Workers of Spain (PCTE) | 4,148 | 0.12 | style="color:green;"| +0.07
| 0 | ±0 |
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Falange Española de las JONS (1976)}}"|
| align="left"| Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) | 2,779 | 0.08 | style="color:green;"| +0.05
| 0 | ±0 |
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Union for Leganés}}"|
| align="left"| Union for Leganés (ULEG) | 2,544 | 0.08 | New
| 0 | ±0 |
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Humanist Party (Spain)}}"|
| align="left"| Humanist Party (PH) | 2,404 | 0.07 | style="color:green;"| +0.04
| 0 | ±0 |
align="left" colspan="2"| Blank ballots
| 35,107 | 1.04 | style="color:green;"| +0.51
| bgcolor="#E9E9E9" colspan="2"| | |
colspan="7" bgcolor="#E9E9E9"| | |||
style="font-weight:bold;"
| align="left" colspan="2"| Total | 3,379,477 | bgcolor="#E9E9E9" colspan="2"|
| 135 | style="color:red;"| –1 | |
colspan="7" bgcolor="#E9E9E9"| | |||
align="left" colspan="2"| Valid votes
| 3,379,477 | 98.99 | style="color:red;"| –0.40
| bgcolor="#E9E9E9" colspan="2" rowspan="5"| | |
align="left" colspan="2"| Invalid votes
| 34,342 | 1.01 | style="color:green;"| +0.40 | |
style="font-weight:bold;"
| align="left" colspan="2"| Votes cast / turnout | 3,413,819 | 65.50 | style="color:red;"| –6.24 | |
align="left" colspan="2"| Abstentions
| 1,797,891 | 34.50 | style="color:green;"| +6.24 | |
style="font-weight:bold;"
| align="left" colspan="2"| Registered voters | 5,211,710 | bgcolor="#E9E9E9" colspan="2"| | ||
colspan="7" bgcolor="#E9E9E9"| | |||
align="left" colspan="7"| Sources{{cite journal|journal=Boletín Oficial de la Comunidad de Madrid|issue=136|date=9 June 2023|language=es|title=Elecciones a la Asamblea de Madrid 2023|url=https://www.bocm.es/boletin/CM_Orden_BOCM/2023/06/09/BOCM-20230609-72.PDF|issn=1989-4791|pages=215–217}} | |||
colspan="7" style="text-align:left; max-width:790px;"| {{hidden|ta1=left|title=Footnotes:|content={{ubl
| 1 Animalist Party with the Environment results are compared to Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals totals in the 2019 election.}}}} |
{{bar box
|title=Popular vote
|titlebar=#ddd
|width=550px
|barwidth=500px
|bars=
{{bar percent|PP|{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}|47.32}}
{{bar percent|MM–VQ|{{party color|Más Madrid}}|18.36}}
{{bar percent|PSOE|{{party color|Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of the Community of Madrid}}|18.18}}
{{bar percent|Vox|{{party color|Vox (political party)}}|7.35}}
{{bar percent|Podemos–IU|{{party color|Unidas Podemos}}|4.76}}
{{bar percent|CS|{{party color|Citizens (Spanish political party)}}|1.57}}
{{bar percent|Others|#777777|1.42}}
{{bar percent|Blank ballots|#DDDDDD|1.04}}
}}
{{bar box
|title=Seats
|titlebar=#ddd
|width=550px
|barwidth=500px
|bars=
{{bar percent|PP|{{party color|People's Party of the Community of Madrid}}|51.85}}
{{bar percent|MM–VQ|{{party color|Más Madrid}}|20.00}}
{{bar percent|PSOE|{{party color|Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of the Community of Madrid}}|20.00}}
{{bar percent|Vox|{{party color|Vox (political party)}}|8.15}}
}}
Aftermath
{{Further|Third government of Isabel Díaz Ayuso}}
class="wikitable" style="text-align:center;" |
colspan="3" align="center" bgcolor="#C0C0C0"| Investiture Isabel Díaz Ayuso (PP) |
colspan="2" width="150px"| Ballot →
! 22 June 2023 |
---|
colspan="2"| Required majority →
| 68 out of 135 {{tick|15}} |
width="1px" style="background:green;"|
| align="left"| {{Collapsible list | title = Yes | • PP (70) }} | {{Composition bar|70|135|green|width=125px}} |
style="color:inherit;background:red;"|
| align="left"| {{Collapsible list | title = No | • PSOE (27) }} | {{Composition bar|54|135|red|width=125px}} |
style="color:inherit;background:gray;"|
| align="left"| {{Collapsible list | title = Abstentions | • Vox (10)| }} | {{Composition bar|10|135|gray|width=125px}} |
style="color:inherit;background:black;"|
| align="left"| {{Collapsible list | title = Absentees | • Vox (1)| }} | {{Composition bar|1|135|black|width=125px}} |
align="left" colspan="3"| Sources{{cite news |last1=Medialdea |first1=Sara |last2=Calleja |first2=Mariano |date=22 June 2023 |title=Ayuso, presidenta de la Comunidad de Madrid con la mayoría absoluta del PP y la abstención de Vox |url=https://www.abc.es/espana/madrid/ayuso-presidenta-comunidad-madrid-mayoria-absoluta-pp-20230622150814-nt.html |language=es |newspaper=ABC |location=Madrid |access-date=23 June 2023}} |
Notes
{{notelist}}
References
;Opinion poll sources
{{reflist|group="p"}}
;Other
{{reflist}}
{{Community of Madrid elections}}
{{Regional elections in Spain in the 2020s}}