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2023 Murcian regional election

{{Short description|Election in the Spanish region of Murcia}}

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2023 Murcian regional election

| country = Murcia

| type = parliamentary

| ongoing = no

| previous_election = 2019 Murcian regional election

| previous_year = 2019

| next_election = Next Murcian regional election

| next_year = Next

| outgoing_members = 10th Regional Assembly of Murcia

| elected_members =

| seats_for_election = All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly of Murcia

| majority_seats = 23

| opinion_polls = #Opinion polls

| registered = 1,098,543 File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg3.7%

| turnout = 694,855 (63.3%)
File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg1.0 pp

| election_date = 28 May 2023

| image1 = 170x170px

| leader1 = Fernando López Miras

| party1 = People's Party of the Region of Murcia

| leader_since1 = 3 May 2017

| last_election1 = 16 seats, 32.4%

| seats1 = 21

| seat_change1 = File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg5

| popular_vote1 = 293,051

| percentage1 = 42.8%

| swing1 = File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg10.4 pp

| image2 = 170x170px

| leader2 = José Vélez

| party2 = Socialist Party of the Region of Murcia

| leader_since2 = 20 November 2021

| last_election2 = 17 seats, 32.5%

| seats2 = 13

| seat_change2 = File:Red Arrow Down.svg4

| popular_vote2 = 175,505

| percentage2 = 25.6%

| swing2 = File:Red Arrow Down.svg6.8 pp

| image3 = 170x170px

| leader3 = José Ángel Antelo

| party3 = Vox (political party)

| leader_since3 = 2 January 2023

| last_election3 = 4 seats, 9.5%

| seats3 = 9

| seat_change3 = File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg5

| popular_vote3 = 121,321

| percentage3 = 17.7%

| swing3 = File:Green Arrow Up Darker.svg8.3 pp

| image4 = 170x170px

| leader4 = María Marín

| party4 = Podemos–IU–AV

| leader_since4 = 18 January 2023

| last_election4 = 2 seats, 7.6%{{efn|name="Podemos+IU"|Results for Podemos–Equo (5.6%, 2 seats) and Change the Region of Murcia (United Left–Greens+Anticapitalistas) (2.0%, 0 seats) in the 2019 election.}}

| seats4 = 2

| seat_change4 = File:Arrow Blue Right 001.svg0

| popular_vote4 = 32,173

| percentage4 = 4.7%

| swing4 = File:Red Arrow Down.svg2.9 pp

| image5 = 170x170px

| leader5 = María José Ros

| party5 = CS

| leader_since5 = 8 February 2023

| last_election5 = 6 seats, 12.0%

| seats5 = 0

| seat_change5 = File:Red Arrow Down.svg6

| popular_vote5 = 10,480

| percentage5 = 1.5%

| swing5 = File:Red Arrow Down.svg10.5 pp

| map_image =

| map_size =

| map_caption =

| title = President

| before_election = Fernando López Miras

| before_party = People's Party of the Region of Murcia

| after_election = Fernando López Miras

| after_party = People's Party of the Region of Murcia

}}

The 2023 Murcian regional election was held on Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 11th Regional Assembly of the autonomous community of the Region of Murcia. All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Overview

=Electoral system=

The Regional Assembly of Murcia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Murcia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Murcian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.{{cite act |title=Ley Orgánica 4/1982, de 9 de junio, de Estatuto de Autonomía para la Región de Murcia |type=Organic Law |number=4 |language=es |date=9 June 1982 |url=https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-1982-15031&tn=1&p=20131129 |access-date=22 February 2017}} Voting for the Regional Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Region of Murcia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system ({{langx|es|Voto rogado}}), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.{{cite web |last=Reig Pellicer |first=Naiara |date=16 December 2015 |url=http://www.cafebabel.co.uk/politics/article/spanish-elections-begging-for-the-right-to-vote.html |title=Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote |website=cafebabel.co.uk |access-date=17 July 2017}} The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.{{cite news |last=Araque Conde |first=Pilar |date=8 June 2022 |title=El Congreso acaba con el voto rogado: diez años de trabas burocráticas para los residentes en el extranjero |url=https://www.publico.es/politica/congreso-acaba-voto-rogado-diez-anos-trabas-burocraticas-residentes-extranjero.html |language=es |newspaper=Público |location=Madrid |access-date=31 July 2022}}

The 45 members of the Regional Assembly of Murcia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally.{{cite act |title=Ley 2/1987, de 24 de febrero, Electoral de la Región de Murcia |type=Law |number=2 |language=es |date=24 February 1987 |url=https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-1987-9474&tn=1&p=20150730 |access-date=22 February 2017}}

=Election date=

The term of the Regional Assembly of Murcia expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Regional Assembly were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, setting the election date for the Regional Assembly on Sunday, 23 May 2023.{{cite act |title=Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General |type=Organic Law |number=5 |language=es |date=19 June 1985 |url=https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-1985-11672&tn=1&p=20221003 |access-date=8 April 2023}}

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Regional Assembly of Murcia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Regional Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.

The election to the Regional Assembly of Murcia was officially triggered on 4 April 2023 after the publication of the election decree in the Official Gazette of the Region of Murcia (BORM), scheduling for the chamber to convene on 14 June.{{cite journal|journal=Boletín Oficial de la Región de Murcia|issue=78|date=4 April 2023|language=es|title=Decreto del Presidente de la Comunidad Autónoma n.º 24/2023, de 3 de abril, de convocatoria de elecciones a la Asamblea Regional de Murcia|url=https://www.borm.es/services/anuncio/ano/2023/numero/2083/pdf?id=817671|issn=1989-1474|pages=10420–10421}}

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Regional Assembly at the time of dissolution.{{cite web |url=https://www.asambleamurcia.es/arm/diputados |title=Diputadas y Diputados regionales |language=es |website=www.asambleamurcia.es |publisher=Regional Assembly of Murcia |access-date=13 October 2019}}{{cite news |last=Ferrán |first=Jaime |date=19 January 2023 |title=La nueva diputada de Equo entrará en la Asamblea a mediados de febrero |url=https://www.laopiniondemurcia.es/comunidad/2023/01/19/nueva-diputada-equo-entrara-asamblea-81370623.html |language=es |newspaper=La Opinión de Murcia |access-date=5 February 2023}}

class="wikitable" style="text-align:left;"

|+ Parliamentary composition in April 2023

rowspan="2" colspan="2"| Groups

! rowspan="2" colspan="2"| Parties

! colspan="2"| Legislators

Seats

! Total

width="1" style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Socialist Party of the Region of Murcia}}"|

| Socialist Parliamentary Group

| width="1" style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Socialist Party of the Region of Murcia}}"|

| PSOE

| 17

| 17

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}"|

| People's Parliamentary Group

| style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}"|

| PP

| 16

| 16

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Citizens (Spanish political party)}}"|

| Citizens Parliamentary Group

| style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Independent politician}}"|

| INDEP

| 4

| 4

rowspan="2" style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}}"|

| rowspan="2"| Vox Parliamentary Group

| style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}}"|

| Vox

| 1

| rowspan="2"| 4

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Independent politician}}"|

| INDEP

| 3

rowspan="3" bgcolor="gray"|

| rowspan="3"| Mixed Group

| style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Citizens (Spanish political party)}}"|

| CS

| 2

| rowspan="3"| 4

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Podemos Region of Murcia (2022)}}"|

| Podemos

| 1

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Greens Equo}}"|

| Verdes Equo

| 1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the Region of Murcia, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

class="wikitable" style="line-height:1.35em; text-align:left;"
colspan="2" rowspan="2"| Candidacy

! rowspan="2"| Parties and
alliances

! colspan="2" rowspan="2"| Leading candidate

! rowspan="2"| Ideology

! colspan="2"| Previous result

! rowspan="2"| {{abbr|Gov.|Government}}

! rowspan="2"| {{abbr|Ref.|References}}

Vote %

! Seats

width="1" style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Socialist Party of the Region of Murcia}}"|

| align="center"| PSOE

| {{Collapsible list

| title = List

| bullets = on

| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)

}}

| 50px

| José Vélez

| Social democracy

| align="center"| 32.5%

| {{big|17}}

| {{na}}

| {{cite news |date=20 November 2021 |url=https://www.europapress.es/murcia/noticia-jose-velez-gana-primarias-psrm-81-votos-20211120213055.html |title=José Vélez gana las Primarias del PSRM con el 81,7% de los votos |language=es |publisher=Europa Press |location=Murcia |access-date=20 November 2021}}

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}"|

| align="center"| PP

| {{Collapsible list

| title = List

| bullets = on

| People's Party (PP)

}}

| 50px

| Fernando López Miras

| Conservatism
Christian democracy

| align="center"| 32.4%

| {{big|16}}

| {{ya}}

| {{cite news |date=5 July 2022 |title=López Miras, reelegido presidente del PP de la Región de Murcia con el 98,7% de los votos |url=https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2022-07-05/lopez-miras-revalida-cargo-pp-murcia-presidente_3455295/ |language=es |newspaper=El Confidencial |access-date=24 May 2023}}

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Citizens (Spanish political party)}}"|

| align="center"| CS

| {{Collapsible list

| title = List

| bullets = on

| Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS)

}}

| 50px

| María José Ros

| Liberalism

| align="center"| 12.0%

| {{big|6}}

| {{na}}

| {{cite news |last=G. Valenzuela |first=Antonio |date=28 September 2020 |url=https://www.larazon.es/murcia/20200928/ofjmfaxv6vge3aefgpzf5mhuri.html |title=Ana Martínez Vidal, nueva coordinadora autonómica de Cs en la Región de Murcia |language=es |newspaper=La Razón |location=Murcia |access-date=13 March 2021}}
{{cite news |last=Gómez |first=David |date=8 February 2023 |url=https://www.laverdad.es/murcia/maria-jose-candidata-20230208135540-nt.html |title=María José Ros liderará la candidatura autonómica de CS al ser la única que logra los avales |language=es |newspaper=La Verdad |access-date=15 February 2023}}

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}}"|

| align="center"| Vox

| {{Collapsible list

| title = List

| bullets = on

| Vox (Vox)

}}

| 50px

| José Ángel Antelo

| Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism

| align="center"| 9.5%

| {{big|4}}

| {{na}}

| {{cite news |date=3 January 2023 |url=https://www.laverdad.es/murcia/vox-designa-jose-angel-antelo-candidato-presidencia-region-murcia-elecciones-20230102111337-nt.html |title=Vox designa a José Ángel Antelo como candidato a presidir la Región de Murcia |language=es |newspaper=La Verdad |access-date=8 January 2023}}

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Unidas Podemos}}"|

| align="center"| Podemos–
IU–AV

| {{Collapsible list

| title = List

| bullets = on

| We Can (Podemos)

| United Left–Greens of the Region of Murcia (IU–V–RM)
{{smaller|– Communist Party of the Region of Murcia (PCM)
– Ecosocialists of the Region of Murcia (ESRM)
– The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om))
– Republican Left (IR)}}

| Green Alliance (AV)

}}

| 50px

| María Marín

| Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism

| align="center" |
7.6%
{{efn|name="Podemos+IU"}}

| {{big|2}}

| {{na}}

| {{cite news |last1=Marcos |first1=Ana |last2=Vadillo |first2=Virginia |date=27 September 2019 |title=Los dos diputados autonómicos de Podemos en Murcia se pasan al partido de Errejón |url=https://elpais.com/politica/2019/09/27/actualidad/1569565652_943494.html |language=es |newspaper=El País |location=Madrid/Murcia |access-date=27 September 2019}}
{{cite news |last=D. Quintero |first=Carmen |date=20 June 2020 |url=https://www.larazon.es/murcia/20200620/ntpdd4pm7rbpxmzt5stvmkp33q.html |title=Javier Sánchez elegido nuevo líder de Podemos en la Región de Murcia |language=es |newspaper=La Razón |location=Murcia |access-date=13 March 2021}}
{{cite news |last=Calvo |first=Erena |date=18 January 2023 |url=https://www.eldiario.es/murcia/politica/e-iu-acuerdan-candidatura-conjunta-autonomicas-municipales-region-murcia_1_9874967.html |title=Podemos e IU acuerdan una candidatura conjunta para las autonómicas y municipales en la Región de Murcia |language=es |newspaper=elDiario.es |location=Murcia |access-date=18 January 2023}}

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Green Coalition}}"|

| align="center"| MR–VE

| {{Collapsible list

| title = List

| bullets = on

| More Region of Murcia (Más Región)

| Greens Equo (Verdes Equo)

}}

| 50px

| Helena Vidal

| Green politics
Direct democracy
Alter-globalization

| colspan="2" {{n/a}}{{efn|Equo contested the 2019 election in an electoral alliance with Podemos.}}

| {{na}}

| {{cite news |last=Ferrán |first=Jaime |date=30 January 2023 |title=La Coalición Verde echa a andar sin Podemos e IU, aunque no pierde la esperanza |url=https://www.laopiniondemurcia.es/comunidad/2023/01/30/coalicion-verde-iu-podemos-82218235.html |language=es |newspaper=La Opinión de Murcia |access-date=5 February 2023}}
{{cite news |last=Benito |first=Pilar |date=18 March 2023 |title=La diputada regional Helena Vidal lidera la coalición Más Región-Verdes Equo |url=https://www.laverdad.es/murcia/diputada-regional-helena-vidal-lidera-coalicion-regionverdesequo-20230318122835-nt.html |language=es |newspaper=La Verdad |access-date=21 March 2023}}

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

=Graphical summary=

{{wide image|OpinionPollingMurciaRegionalElection2023.svg|750px|Local regression trend line of poll results from 26 May 2019 to 28 May 2023, with each line corresponding to a political party.}}

=Voting intention estimates=

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.

class="wikitable collapsible collapsed" style="text-align:center; font-size:95%; line-height:16px;"
style="height:42px;"

! style="width:250px;" rowspan="2"| Polling firm/Commissioner

! style="width:125px;" rowspan="2"| Fieldwork date

! style="width:50px;" rowspan="2"| Sample size

! style="width:45px;" rowspan="2"| Turnout

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo PSRM–PSOE.svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo del PP (2022).svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo de Ciudadanos reducido (2023).svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:VOX logo.svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo de Podemos (2022).svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:NuevoLogoMC.png

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo de Por Mi Región.svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:IU500PNG.png

! style="width:35px;"| File:Isotipo de Unidas Podemos (2023).svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:Más País.svg

! style="width:30px;" rowspan="2"| Lead

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Socialist Party of the Region of Murcia}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Citizens (Spanish political party)}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Podemos Region of Murcia (2022)}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Citizens' Movement of Cartagena}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Somos Región}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|United Left–Greens of the Region of Murcia}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Unidas Podemos}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Más País}};"|

colspan="15" style="background:#A0A0A0"|
style="background:#EFEFEF;"

| 2023 regional election

| 28 May 2023

| {{N/A}}

| 63.2

| 25.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=13}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 42.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=21}}

| 1.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 17.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=9}}

| {{efn|name="UP"|Within Unidas Podemos.}}

| 3.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 0.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 4.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| 1.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 17.2

colspan="15" style="background:#A0A0A0"|
NC Report/La Razón{{cite web |title=Elecciones autonómicas: El PP arrebataría al PSOE la Comunidad Valenciana, Castilla-La Mancha y La Rioja |url=https://www.larazon.es/espana/elecciones-autonomicas-arrebataria-psoe-comunidad-valenciana-castillala-mancha-rioja_20230522646a68d0910a1b0001cf9f5f.html |language=es |work=La Razón |date=22 May 2023}}

| 22 May 2023

|?

|?

| 28.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14/15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 39.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=19/20}}

| –

| 16.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=7/8}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 3.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=1}}

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 5.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2/3}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 10.3

KeyData/Público{{cite web |title=El PP necesitaría a un Vox en alza para gobernar en la Región de Murcia |url=https://www.publico.es/politica/pp-necesitaria-vox-alza-gobernar-region-murcia.html |language=es |work=Público |date=20 May 2023 |first1=Miguel |last1=Muñoz |url-status=live |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20230522194707/https://www.publico.es/politica/pp-necesitaria-vox-alza-gobernar-region-murcia.html |archive-date= May 22, 2023 }}

| 18 May 2023

|?

| 64.4

| 29.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 39.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=20}}

| 2.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 15.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=7}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 7.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 10.4

ElectoPanel/El Plural{{cite web |title=A López Miras le puede pasar lo mismo que a Ayuso según este pronóstico electoral |url=https://www.elplural.com/politica/lopez-miras-puede-pasar-mismo-ayuso-segun-este-pronostico-electoral_311051102 |language=es |work=El Plural |date=20 May 2023}}{{cite web |title=EP Autonómico (20My – Final): nos espera un 28M de infarto |url=https://electomania.es/ep-autonomico-20my-final-nos-espera-un-28m-de-infarto/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=20 May 2023}}

| 11–17 May 2023

| 600

|?

| 29.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 38.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=19}}

| 2.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 16.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=8}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 2.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 1.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 6.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| 2.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 9.6

CEMOP{{cite web |title=Encuesta Preelectoral Elecciones Autonómicas 2023. Región de Murcia |url=https://www.cemopmurcia.es/estudios/encuesta-preelectoral-elecciones-autonomicas-2023-region-de-murcia/ |language=es |work=CEMOP |date=22 May 2023}}

| 8–17 May 2023

| 1,200

| 62.8

| 29.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14/15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 40.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=20/21}}

| 2.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 15.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=7/8}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 3.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0/1}}

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 4.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 11.3

UCAM{{cite web |date=18 May 2023 |title=El barómetro de la UCAM hunde a la izquierda y mete a MC en el hemiciclo |url=https://www.laopiniondemurcia.es/elecciones/autonomicas/2023/05/18/encuesta-electoral-ucam-barometro-87532571.html |work=La Opinión de Murcia |language=es}}

| 3–12 May 2023

| 800

|?

| 28.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14/15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 38.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=19/20}}

| 1.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 15.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=8}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 3.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=1}}

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 5.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 10.0

ElectoPanel/El Plural{{cite web |title=En Murcia ganaría el PP, pero deberá pactar si quiere gobernar, según el último pronóstico electoral |url=https://www.elplural.com/politica/murcia-ganaria-pp-debera-pactar-si-quiere-gobernar-segun-ultimo-pronostico-electoral_310729102 |language=es |work=El Plural |date=13 May 2023}}{{cite web |title=ElectoPanel Autonómico (13M) |url=https://electomania.es/ep-autonomico-13m-exclusivo-patrones/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=13 May 2023}}

| 4–10 May 2023

| 600

|?

| 29.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 39.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=20}}

| 2.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 16.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=8}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 1.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 1.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 6.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| 2.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 10.3

ElectoPanel/El Plural{{cite web |title=¿Es Murcia tan de derechas? Más que una encuesta de cara al próximo 28 de mayo |url=https://www.elplural.com/politica/es-murcia-tan-derechas-mas-encuesta-cara-proximo-28-mayo_310344102 |language=es |work=El Plural |date=6 May 2023}}{{cite web |title=ElectoPanel Autonómico (6M) |url=https://electomania.es/ep-autonomico-6m-23/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=6 May 2023}}

| 26 Apr–3 May 2023

| 600

|?

| 29.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 39.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=20}}

| 2.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 16.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=8}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 1.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 1.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 6.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| 2.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 10.2

Actuatech/PSOE{{cite web |title=El PSOE se mantiene pero no consigue evitar un Gobierno de PP con Vox |url=https://www.laopiniondemurcia.es/elecciones/autonomicas/2023/05/09/psoe-mantiene-evitar-gobierno-pp-87079863.html |language=es |work=La Opinión de Murcia |date=9 May 2023}}

| 19–28 Apr 2023

| 800

| 63.9

| 31.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=17}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 32.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=17}}

| 2.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 16.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=8}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 7.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 1.0

GAD3/ABC{{cite web |title=El PP de López Miras sumaría más que toda la izquierda y podría exigir el modelo Ayuso |url=https://www.abc.es/espana/pp-lopez-miras-sumaria-izquierda-exigir-modelo-20230514194238-nt.html |language=es |work=ABC |date=13 May 2023}}

| 26–27 Apr 2023

| 1,000

|?

| 28.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 39.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=19/20}}

| –

| 15.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=7/8}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 3.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=1}}

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 6.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 11.0

CIS{{cite web |title=Preelectoral elecciones municipales y autonómicas 2023. Región de Murcia (Estudio nº 3402. Abril 2023) |url=https://www.cis.es/documents/d/cis/es3402mar_RMurciapdf |language=es |work=CIS |date=11 May 2023}}{{cite web |title=Estimación de voto. Municipios, grandes ciudades y Comunidades Autónomas (Estudio nº 3402. Abril 2023) |url=https://www.cis.es/documents/d/cis/3402_EstimacionEAMpdf |language=es |work=CIS |date=11 May 2023}}

| 10–26 Apr 2023

| 631

|?

| 30.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14/16}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 36.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=17/18}}

| 2.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 16.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=7/9}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 9.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=4/5}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 5.7

ElectoPanel/El Plural{{cite web |title=Murcia / El PP de López Miras mantendría el liderazgo, aunque precisaría del apoyo de Vox |url=https://www.elplural.com/politica/murcia-pp-lopez-miras-mantendria-liderazgo-precisaria-apoyo-vox_310042102 |language=es |work=El Plural |date=29 April 2023}}{{cite web |title=ElectoPanel Autonómico (29A) |url=https://electomania.es/ep-autonomico-29a-exclusivo-patronest/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=29 April 2023}}

| 19–25 Apr 2023

| 600

|?

| 29.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 39.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=20}}

| 2.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 16.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=8}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 2.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 1.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 6.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| 1.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 10.3

ElectoPanel/El Plural{{cite web |title=Murcia / PP y Vox mantienen sus posiciones de cara al 28M |url=https://www.elplural.com/politica/murcia-pp-vox-mantienen-posiciones-cara-28m_309642102 |language=es |work=El Plural |date=22 April 2023}}{{cite web |title=ElectoPanel Autonómico (22A) |url=https://electomania.es/electopanel-autonomico-22a-exclusivo-patrones/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=22 April 2023}}

| 12–18 Apr 2023

| 600

|?

| 29.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 39.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=20}}

| 2.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 16.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=8}}

| {{efn|name="UP"|Within Unidas Podemos.}}

| 2.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 2.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 6.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 10.2

ElectoPanel/El Plural{{cite web |title=ElectoPanel Murcia / Subida de un PP muy fuerte que suma más que toda la izquierda |url=https://www.elplural.com/politica/electopanel-murcia-subida-pp-muy-fuerte-suma-mas-toda-izquierda_309231102 |language=es |work=El Plural |date=15 April 2023}}{{cite web |title=ElectoPanel Autonómico (15A) – varias CCAA en un puño |url=https://electomania.es/electopanel-autonomico-15a-varias-ccaa-en-un-puno/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=15 April 2023}}

| 5–11 Apr 2023

| 600

|?

| 29.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 39.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=20}}

| 2.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 17.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=8}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 2.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 2.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 6.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 10.2

Simple Lógica/elDiario.es{{cite web |title=El PP dependerá de Vox para gobernar en la Región de Murcia |url=https://www.eldiario.es/murcia/pp-dependera-vox-gobernar-region-murcia_1_10117431.html |language=es |work=elDiario.es |date=18 April 2023}}

| 3–11 Apr 2023

| 450

|?

| 27.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14/15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 32.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=16/17}}

| 5.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| 16.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=7/8}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 11.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=4/5}}

| 3.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=1}}

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 4.5

SocioMétrica/El Español{{cite web |title=López Miras, a un escaño de la mayoría absoluta: suma más diputados que PSOE y Podemos juntos |url=https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20230416/lopez-miras-mayoria-absoluta-diputados-psoe-podemos/756424477_0.html |language=es |work=El Español |date=16 April 2023}}

| 3–7 Apr 2023

| 1,200

|?

| 29.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14/15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 41.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=21/22}}

| 2.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 14.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=7}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 6.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 12.1

ElectoPanel/El Plural{{cite web |title=ElectoPanel Murcia / El PP no consigue mayoría absoluta y tendrá que pactar con Vox |url=https://www.elplural.com/politica/electopanel-region-murcia-pp-no-mayoria-absoluta-pacto-vox_308865102 |language=es |work=El Plural |date=8 April 2023}}{{cite web |title=EP Autonómico 8A – comienza el juego |url=https://electomania.es/ep-autonomico-8a23-comienza-el-juego/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=8 April 2023}}

| 27 Mar–4 Apr 2023

| 600

|?

| 29.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 38.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=19}}

| 3.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 17.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=8}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 2.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 2.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 6.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 9.3

NC Report/La Razón{{cite web |title=López Miras se queda a solo dos escaños de la mayoría absoluta |url=https://www.larazon.es/espana/lopez-miras-queda-solo-dos-escanos-mayoria-absoluta_20230403642a17f27e9ad30001514d6d.html |language=es |work=La Razón |date=3 April 2023}}

| 24–31 Mar 2023

|?

| 64.3

| 29.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 42.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=21}}

| 2.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 12.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=6}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 7.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 13.4

CEMOP{{cite web |title=Barómetro Región de Murcia. Primavera 2023 |url=https://www.cemopmurcia.es/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Informe-Barometro-Primavera-2023.pdf |language=es |work=CEMOP |date=27 April 2023}}

| 20–31 Mar 2023

| 1,200

| 66.2

| 29.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14/15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 40.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=20/21}}

| 2.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 15.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=7}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 6.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 11.7

Actuatech/PSOE{{cite web |title=Encuesta electoral: el PP empataría con el PSOE y se aleja de un Gobierno en solitario |url=https://www.laopiniondemurcia.es/comunidad/2023/03/15/encuesta-electoral-pp-empataria-psoe-84657773.html |language=es |work=La Opinión de Murcia |date=15 March 2023}}

| 2 Feb–3 Mar 2023

| 1,200

| 64.0

| 30.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=17/18}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 32.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=17/18}}

| 2.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 14.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=7/8}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 6.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2/3}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 1.8

CEMOP{{cite web |title=Barómetro Región de Murcia. Invierno 2023 |url=https://www.cemopmurcia.es/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Informe-barometro-invierno-2023-definitivo.pdf |language=es |work=CEMOP |date=16 February 2023}}

| 23–31 Jan 2023

| 820

| 64.7

| 29.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14/15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 40.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=20/21}}

| 2.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 14.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=7}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 6.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 11.0

Sigma Dos/El Mundo{{cite web |title=López Miras ganaría las elecciones en la Región de Murcia, superaría a toda la izquierda y podría gobernar sin Vox |url=https://www.elmundo.es/espana/encuestas/2023/01/16/63c3ec9efdddfff2688b45b5.html |language=es |work=El Mundo |date=16 January 2023}}{{cite web |title=[AUT] REGIÓN DE MURCIA. Encuesta SigmaDos 16/01/2023: PODEMOS-IU 6,2% (2), PSOE 29,3% (14/15), Cs 2,5%, PP 41,4% (20/21), VOX 15,3% (7) |url=https://www.electografica.com/2023/01/region-de-murcia-encuesta-sigmados-230116.html |language=es |work=El Mundo |date=16 January 2023}}

| 2–10 Jan 2023

| 779

|?

| 29.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14/15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 41.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=20/21}}

| 2.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 15.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=7}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 6.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 12.1

InvyMark{{cite web |title=Vox se come el hueco de Cs, con seis escaños más y el apoyo de uno de cada cinco murcianos |url=https://www.laopiniondemurcia.es/comunidad/2023/01/04/vox-come-hueco-cs-seis-80656777.html |language=es |work=La Opinión de Murcia |date=4 January 2023}}

| 12–18 Dec 2022

| 1,100

|?

| 28.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=13/14}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 37.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=18/19}}

| 2.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 20.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=10}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 5.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 9.0

CIS{{efn|Vote+Simpathy figures with undecided and/or abstentionists excluded.}}{{cite web |title=Macroencuesta sobre tendencias en voto autonómico (Estudio nº 3386. Noviembre-diciembre 2022) |url=https://www.cis.es/visor?migrado=true&fichero=cru3386ccaahtml |language=es |work=CIS |date=22 December 2022}}{{cite web |title=Estimación de escaños elecciones autonómicas (Estudio nº 3386. Macroencuesta sobre tendencias en voto autonómico) |url=https://www.cis.es/documents/d/cis/3386_EstimacionEAEGpdf |language=es |work=CIS |date=22 December 2022}}

| 17 Nov–2 Dec 2022

| 329

|?

| 32.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=15/17}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 41.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=18/23}}

| 0.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0/2}}

| 10.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=4/6}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 8.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3/5}}

| 0.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 8.5

CEMOP{{cite web |title=Barómetro Región de Murcia. Otoño 2022 |url=https://www.cemopmurcia.es/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/RESULTADOS.pdf |language=es |work=CEMOP |date=11 November 2022}}

| 3–17 Oct 2022

| 820

| 63.5

| 29.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 39.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=20}}

| 2.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 15.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=8}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 5.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 10.3

InvyMark{{cite web |title=Vox triplicaría sus diputados en las próximas elecciones regionales, según una encuesta |url=https://www.laopiniondemurcia.es/comunidad/2022/07/17/vox-triplicaria-diputados-proximas-elecciones-68425877.html |language=es |work=La Opinión de Murcia |date=17 July 2022}}{{cite web |title=REGIÓN DE MURCIA. Encuesta InvyMark 17/07/2022: PODEMOS-IU 5,5% (3), PSOE 29,9% (14/15), Cs 2,1%, PP 33,5% (16/17), VOX 24,3% (11/12) |url=https://www.electograph.com/2022/07/region-de-murcia-encuesta-invymark-220717.html |language=es |work=Electograph |date=17 July 2022}}

| 27 Jun–6 Jul 2022

| 1,500

|?

| 29.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14/15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 33.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=16/17}}

| 2.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 24.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=11/12}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 5.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 3.6

CEMOP{{cite web |title=Barómetro Región de Murcia. Barómetro de Primavera 2022 |url=https://www.cemopmurcia.es/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/BAROMETRO-PRIMAVERA-22.-WEB.pdf |language=es |work=CEMOP |date=5 July 2022}}

| 31 May–8 Jun 2022

| 820

| 68.0

| 28.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 38.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=19}}

| 3.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=1}}

| 18.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=9}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 4.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 9.3

UCAM{{cite web |title=Barómetro Región de Murcia. Mayo de 2022 |url=https://www.ucam.edu/sites/default/files/public/barometro-r.-de-murcia-mayo-2022.pdf |language=es |work=UCAM |date=25 May 2022}}

| 4–21 Apr 2022

| 800

| 59.1

| 28.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 38.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=19}}

| 3.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=1}}

| 16.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=8}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 6.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 10.0

CEMOP{{cite web |title=Barómetro Región de Murcia. Barómetro de Invierno 2022 |url=https://www.cemopmurcia.es/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/BAROMETRO-INVIERNO-22.pdf |language=es |work=CEMOP |date=21 March 2022}}

| 15 Feb–2 Mar 2022

| 820

| 64.0

| 30.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 36.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=19}}

| 2.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 16.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=8}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 6.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 6.3

ElectoPanel/Electomanía{{cite web |title=EP R. Murcia (31O): El PP sigue dependiendo de Vox para gobernar |url=https://electomania.es/eprmurcia31o21/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=1 November 2021}}

| 31 Oct 2021

|?

|?

| 29.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 42.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=22}}

| 2.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 12.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=6}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 1.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 1.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 5.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 13.3

CEMOP{{cite web |title=Barómetro Región de Murcia. Barómetro de Otoño 2021 |url=https://www.cemopmurcia.es/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/BAROMETRO-OTON%CC%83O-21..pdf |language=es |work=CEMOP |date=15 November 2021}}

| 18–28 Oct 2021

| 827

| 64.0

| 29.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 39.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=20}}

| 4.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| 13.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=6}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 7.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 9.9

ElectoPanel/Electomanía{{cite web |title=ElectoPanel R. Murcia (15J): Ciudadanos se quedaría fuera del Parlamento regional |url=https://electomania.es/eprmurcia15j21/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=15 June 2021}}

| 15 Jun 2021

| 850

|?

| 32.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=16}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 41.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=21}}

| 2.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 13.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=6}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 1.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 1.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 4.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 9.6

UCAM{{cite web |title=Barómetro Región de Murcia. Mayo de 2021 |url=https://www.ucam.edu/sites/default/files/public/barometro-mayo-2021-i-parte.pdf |language=es |work=UCAM |date=22 May 2021}}

| 10–17 May 2021

| 800

| 59.2

| 27.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=13}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 39.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=20}}

| 3.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=1}}

| 15.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=8}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| 0.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 4.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| 3.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=1}}

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 12.6

CEMOP{{cite web |title=Barómetro Región de Murcia. Barómetro de Primavera 2021 |url=https://www.cemopmurcia.es/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/BAROMETRO-PRIMAVERA-21.pdf |language=es |work=CEMOP |date=3 June 2021}}

| 4–14 May 2021

| 820

| 63.3

| 27.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 43.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=22}}

| 3.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=1}}

| 13.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=6}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 5.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 16.1

Murcia Electoral{{cite web |title=Sondeo |url=https://twitter.com/MurciaElectoral/status/1372513368452517888 |language=es |work=Murcia Electoral |date=18 March 2021}}

| 16–17 Mar 2021

| 675

|?

| {{Party shading/PSOE}}| 31.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=16}}

| 30.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=16}}

| 5.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| 16.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=8}}

| 5.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| 2.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 2.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| –

| –

| 2.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| style="background:{{party color|Socialist Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 0.4

ElectoPanel/Electomanía{{cite web |title=RMurciaPanel (15M): López-Miras sale reforzado y alcanza el 40%. Cs desaparece y Vox, llave de gobierno |url=https://electomania.es/rmurciapanel-15m-lopez-miras-sale-reforzado-y-alcanza-el-40-cs-desaparece-y-vox-llave-de-gobierno/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=14 March 2021}}

| 14 Mar 2021

| 850

|?

| 33.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=17}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 40.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=20}}

| 2.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 12.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=6}}

| 4.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| 1.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 1.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 0.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| –

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 6.8

SyM Consulting{{cite web |title=Estimación Marzo 2021. Región de Murcia. Autonómicas |url=https://twitter.com/Barometrocm/status/1371363032429965315 |language=es |work=SyM Consulting |date=15 March 2021}}{{cite web |title=REGIÓN DE MURCIA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 15/03/2021: CR 1,4%, PODEMOS-EQUO 2,8%, PSOE 27,9% (14/15), MC-CCD 2,4%, SR 1,7%, Cs 3,0%, PP 36,5% (19), VOX 22,2% (11/12) |url=https://www.electograph.com/2021/03/region-de-murcia-encuesta-sym.html |language=es |work=Electograph |date=15 March 2021}}

| 12–13 Mar 2021

| 1,076

| 61.7

| 27.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14/15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 36.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=19}}

| 3.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 22.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=11/12}}

| 2.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 2.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 1.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 1.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| –

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 8.6

Sigma Dos/La Verdad{{cite web |title=Siete de cada diez votantes de Ciudadanos rechazan la moción de censura en la Región |url=https://www.laverdad.es/murcia/siete-diez-votantes-20210314225336-nt.html |language=es |work=La Verdad |date=14 March 2021}}{{cite web |title=REGIÓN DE MURCIA. Encuesta SigmaDos 14/03/2021: PODEMOS-EQUO 5,0% (2), PSOE 29,1% (14), Cs 6,7% (3), PP 35,8% (17/18), VOX 18,2% (8/9) |url=https://www.electograph.com/2021/03/region-de-murcia-encuesta-sigmados.html |language=es |work=Electograph |date=14 March 2021}}

| 10–12 Mar 2021

| 1,100

|?

| 29.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 35.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=17/18}}

| 6.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| 18.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=8/9}}

| 5.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| –

| –

| –

| –

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 6.7

UCAM{{cite web |title=El PP podría mantenerse en el Gobierno regional pero solo apoyado o en coalición con Vox, según un barómetro de la UCAM |url=https://www.europapress.es/murcia/noticia-pp-podria-mantenerse-gobierno-regional-solo-apoyado-coalicion-vox-barometro-ucam-20210113173747.html |language=es |work=Europa Press |date=13 January 2021}}

| 9–23 Dec 2020

| 809

| 59.2

| 30.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 34.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=17}}

| 7.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| 13.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=7}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 6.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 3.6

CEMOP{{cite web |title=Barómetro Región de Murcia. Barómetro de Invierno 2020 |url=https://www.cemopmurcia.es/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/BAROMETRO-INVIERNO-2020.pdf |language=es |work=CEMOP |date=25 January 2021}}

| 14–22 Dec 2020

| 824

| 64.4

| 27.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=14}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 38.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=19}}

| 7.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| 15.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=7}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 5.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 11.1

SyM Consulting{{cite web |title=Estimación Octubre 2020. Región de Murcia. Autonómicas 2023 |url=https://twitter.com/Barometrocm/status/1324665543417307138 |language=es |work=SyM Consulting |date=6 November 2020}}{{cite web |title=REGIÓN DE MURCIA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 06/11/2020: CR 1,6%, PODEMOS-EQUO 3,7% (1/2), PSOE 29,1% (15), MC-CCD 2,6%, SR 2,7%, Cs 3,4% (1), PP 34,1% (17/18), VOX 20,3% (10) |url=https://www.electograph.com/2020/11/region-de-murcia-encuesta-sym-consulting-201106.html |language=es |work=Electograph |date=6 November 2020}}

| 16–18 Oct 2020

| 1,131

| 61.3

| 29.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 34.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=17/18}}

| 3.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=1}}

| 20.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=10}}

| 3.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=1/2}}

| 2.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 2.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 1.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| –

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 5.0

CEMOP{{cite web |title=Barómetro Región de Murcia. Escenarios Políticos ante la Segunda Ola de la Pandemia. Otoño 2020 |url=http://www.cemopmurcia.es/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/BAROMETRO-OTO%C3%91O-20-COMPLETO-1.pdf |language=es |work=CEMOP |date=10 November 2020}}

| 2–15 Oct 2020

| 825

| 64.9

| 27.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=13}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 39.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=20}}

| 6.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| 15.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=7}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 4.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 12.0

Murcia Electoral{{cite web |title=El PP ganaría la elecciones autonómicas aunque seguiría necesitando a Vox y Ciudadanos para gobernar según el último sondeo de Murcia Electoral |url=https://murciaactualidad.com/el-pp-ganaria-la-elecciones-autonomicas-aunque-seguiria-necesitando-a-vox-y-ciudadanos-para-gobernar-segun-el-ultimo-sondeo-de-murcia-electoral/ |language=es |work=Murcia Actualidad |date=17 August 2020}}{{cite web |title=Cs volvería a tener la llave para decidir el bloque ganador entre PP y PSOE en la Región |url=https://www.laopiniondemurcia.es/comunidad/2020/08/17/cs-volveria-llave-decidir-bloque/1137688.html |language=es |work=La Opinión de Murcia |date=17 August 2020}}

| 29 Jul–5 Aug 2020

| 1,841

|?

| 31.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=16}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 33.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=17}}

| 9.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=5}}

| 10.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=5}}

| 5.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| 2.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 2.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 0.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| –

| 1.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 2.5

Murcia Electoral{{cite web |title=Barómetro Región de Murcia. Elecciones Autonómicas. Junio de 2020 |url=https://murciaelectoral.es/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/BAR%C3%93METRO-MURCIA-ELECTORAL-ELECCIONES-AUTON%C3%93MICAS.pdf |language=es |work=Murcia Electoral |date=10 June 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200629130849/https://murciaelectoral.es/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/BAR%C3%93METRO-MURCIA-ELECTORAL-ELECCIONES-AUTON%C3%93MICAS.pdf |archive-date=29 June 2020 |url-status=dead}}{{cite web |title=El PP sería la primera fuerza en la Región y podría gobernar con VOX |url=https://cadenaser.com/emisora/2020/06/10/radio_murcia/1591791118_633498.html |language=es |work=Cadena SER |date=10 June 2020}}

| 2–9 Jun 2020

| 1,721

|?

| 29.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 34.1
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=18}}

| 9.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=4}}

| 11.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=6}}

| 5.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| 2.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 2.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 0.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| –

| 2.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 4.5

ElectoPanel/Electomanía{{cite web |title=EP (17My): R. Murcia – subida de PP y Vox |url=https://electomania.es/ep-17my-r-murcia-subida-de-pp-y-vox/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=17 May 2020}}{{cite web |title=MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+ |url=https://electomania.es/macropanel-autonomico-17my-8-gobiernos-para-psoe-8-para-pp-y-3-para-otros/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=17 May 2020}}

| 1 Apr–15 May 2020

|?

|?

| 33.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=16}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 38.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=19}}

| 6.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| 11.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=5}}

| 4.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| 1.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 1.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 0.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| –

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 4.9

CEMOP{{cite web |title=Barómetro Región de Murcia. Cambios y Permanencias. Primavera 2020 |url=http://www.cemopmurcia.es/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/BAROMETRO-CEMOP-PRIMAVERA-2020.pdf |language=es |work=CEMOP |date=10 May 2020}}

| 20–29 Apr 2020

| 804

| 64.2

| 31.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=15}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 38.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=19}}

| 7.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3/4}}

| 11.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=5/6}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| –

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 5.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 7.8

SyM Consulting{{cite web |title=Estimación Marzo 2020. Región de Murcia. Autonómicas 2023 |url=https://twitter.com/Barometrocm/status/1246126572324687873 |language=es |work=SyM Consulting |date=3 April 2020}}

| 30–31 Mar 2020

| 1,089

| 60.6

| 30.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=15/16}}

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 33.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=17}}

| 8.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=4}}

| 14.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=7}}

| 3.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=1/2}}

| 2.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 2.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 1.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| –

| –

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 3.2

ElectoPanel/Electomanía{{cite web |title=ElectoPanel (Región de Murcia 10Dic): Vox le disputa la hegemonía de la derecha al PP. MC Cartagena y Somos Región, al borde del escaño |url=https://electomania.es/electopanel-region-de-murcia-10dic-vox-le-disputa-la-hegemonia-de-la-derecha-al-pp-mc-cartagena-y-somos-region-al-borde-del-escano/ |language=es |work=Electomanía |date=10 December 2019}}

| 6–8 Dec 2019

|?

|?

| {{Party shading/PSOE}}| 26.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=12/15}}

| 25.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=12/14}}

| 7.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3/4}}

| 24.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=11/14}}

| 6.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2/3}}

| 2.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0/1}}

| 2.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0/1}}

| 1.7
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| –

| 1.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| style="background:{{party color|Socialist Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 0.6

style="background:#EFEFEF;"

| November 2019 general election

| 10 Nov 2019

| {{N/A}}

| 68.0

| 24.8
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=12}}

| 26.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=13}}

| 7.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=3}}

| {{Party shading/Vox}}| 28.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=13}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| –

| 0.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 8.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=4}}

| 1.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| style="background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}}; color:white;"| 1.5

Sigma Dos/La Verdad{{cite web |title=El PSOE ganaría con más ventaja en la Región de Murcia y Vox le daría el 'sorpasso' a Ciudadanos |url=https://www.laverdad.es/murcia/psoe-ganaria-ventaja-20190715001707-ntvo.html |language=es |work=La Verdad |date=15 July 2019}}{{cite web |title=Estimación de voto en julio de 2019 |url=https://static.laverdad.es/www/multimedia/201907/15/media/cortadas/Sigma2_lunes-kxwB--674x900@La%20Verdad.jpg |language=es |work=La Verdad |date=15 July 2019}}

| 9–10 Jul 2019

| 600

|?

| {{Party shading/PSOE}}| 35.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=18}}

| 31.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=15}}

| 9.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=4}}

| 11.9
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=6}}

| 5.3
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| –

| –

| –

| –

| –

| style="background:{{party color|Socialist Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 4.2

colspan="15" style="background:#A0A0A0"|
style="background:#EFEFEF;"

| 2019 regional election

| 26 May 2019

| {{N/A}}

| 62.3

| {{Party shading/PSOE}}| 32.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=17}}

| 32.4
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=16}}

| 12.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=6}}

| 9.5
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=4}}

| 5.6
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=2}}

| 2.2
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 2.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| 2.0
{{font|size=75%|font=Verdana|text=0}}

| –

| –

| style="background:{{party color|Socialist Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 0.1

colspan="15" style="background:#A0A0A0"|

=Voting preferences=

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

class="wikitable collapsible collapsed" style="text-align:center; font-size:90%; line-height:14px;"
style="height:42px;"

! style="width:250px;" rowspan="2"| Polling firm/Commissioner

! style="width:125px;" rowspan="2"| Fieldwork date

! style="width:50px;" rowspan="2"| Sample size

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo PSRM–PSOE.svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo del PP (2022).svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo de Ciudadanos reducido (2023).svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:VOX logo.svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo de Podemos (2022).svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:IU500PNG.png

! style="width:35px;"| File:Isotipo de Unidas Podemos (2023).svg

! style="width:35px;" rowspan="2"| {{Qmark}}

! style="width:35px;" rowspan="2"| {{cross}}

! style="width:30px;" rowspan="2"| Lead

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Socialist Party of the Region of Murcia}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Citizens (Spanish political party)}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Podemos Region of Murcia (2022)}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|United Left–Greens of the Region of Murcia}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Unidas Podemos}};"|

colspan="13" style="background:#A0A0A0"|
style="background:#EFEFEF;"

| 2023 regional election

| 28 May 2023

| {{N/A}}

| 16.3

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 27.2

| 1.0

| 11.3

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 3.0

| {{N/A}}

| 34.3

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 10.9

colspan="13" style="background:#A0A0A0"|
Actuatech/PSOE

| 19–28 Apr 2023

| 800

| 13.1

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 26.8

| 0.5

| 10.9

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 4.0

| 28.5

| 9.5

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 13.7

CIS

| 10–26 Apr 2023

| 631

| 21.4

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 26.0

| 1.0

| 13.1

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 6.9

| 24.2

| 3.2

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 4.6

CEMOP

| 20–31 Mar 2023

| 1,200

| 17.1

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 29.6

| 1.7

| 13.1

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 3.9

| 17.1

| 8.0

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 12.5

Actuatech/PSOE

| 2 Feb–3 Mar 2023

| 1,200

| 14.4

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 27.2

| 0.7

| 9.3

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 2.3

| 31.1

| 10.0

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 12.8

CEMOP

| 23–31 Jan 2023

| 820

| 14.9

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 27.6

| 1.7

| 12.1

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 3.8

| 25.7

| 5.9

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 12.7

CIS

| 17 Nov–2 Dec 2022

| 329

| 21.2

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 27.9

| 0.3

| 7.1

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 4.8

| 30.4

| 4.2

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 6.7

CEMOP

| 3–17 Oct 2022

| 820

| 13.8

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 27.3

| 1.5

| 13.8

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 3.7

| 19.3

| 8.3

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 13.5

CEMOP

| 31 May–8 Jun 2022

| 820

| 17.7

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 25.5

| 3.4

| 16.8

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 3.0

| 13.4

| 9.4

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 7.8

CEMOP

| 15 Feb–2 Mar 2022

| 820

| 16.7

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 20.5

| 0.9

| 9.5

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 5.0

| 26.2

| 15.1

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 3.8

CEMOP

| 18–28 Oct 2021

| 827

| 16.2

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 24.8

| 2.7

| 11.7

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 5.1

| 17.6

| 8.5

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 8.6

CEMOP

| 4–14 May 2021

| 820

| 14.3

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 30.5

| 1.8

| 11.3

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 4.0

| 19.8

| 9.4

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 16.2

CEMOP

| 14–22 Dec 2020

| 824

| 15.4

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 25.1

| 5.1

| 13.2

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 4.5

| 20.8

| 8.6

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 9.7

CEMOP

| 2–15 Oct 2020

| 825

| 15.0

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 23.8

| 3.8

| 12.4

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 3.6

| 19.6

| 11.0

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 8.8

CEMOP

| 20–29 Apr 2020

| 804

| 14.8

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 24.6

| 3.1

| 7.6

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 4.4

| 29.8

| 11.9

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 9.8

style="background:#EFEFEF;"

| November 2019 general election

| 10 Nov 2019

| {{N/A}}

| 17.2

| 18.4

| 5.2

| {{Party shading/Vox}}| 19.4

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| {{efn|name="UP"}}

| 6.1

| {{N/A}}

| 30.0

| style="background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}}; color:white;"| 1.0

colspan="13" style="background:#A0A0A0"|
style="background:#EFEFEF;"

| 2019 regional election

| 26 May 2019

| {{N/A}}

| {{Party shading/PSOE}}| 20.6

| 20.6

| 7.6

| 6.0

| 3.5

| 1.3

| –

| {{N/A}}

| 35.9

| style="background:{{party color|Socialist Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 0.0

colspan="13" style="background:#A0A0A0"|

=Victory preferences=

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

class="wikitable collapsible collapsed" style="text-align:center; font-size:90%; line-height:14px;"
style="height:42px;"

! style="width:250px;" rowspan="2"| Polling firm/Commissioner

! style="width:125px;" rowspan="2"| Fieldwork date

! style="width:50px;" rowspan="2"| Sample size

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo PSRM–PSOE.svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo del PP (2022).svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo de Ciudadanos reducido (2023).svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:VOX logo.svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:Isotipo de Unidas Podemos (2023).svg

! style="width:35px;" rowspan="2"| Other/
None

! style="width:35px;" rowspan="2"| {{Qmark}}

! style="width:30px;" rowspan="2"| Lead

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Socialist Party of the Region of Murcia}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Citizens (Spanish political party)}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Unidas Podemos}};"|

CEMOP

| 20–31 Mar 2023

| 1,200

| 19.8

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 33.4

| 2.2

| 13.3

| 3.7

| 6.0

| 21.7

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 13.6

CEMOP

| 23–31 Jan 2023

| 820

| 18.8

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 32.3

| 2.0

| 12.9

| 3.0

| 7.0

| 24.0

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 13.5

=Victory likelihood=

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

class="wikitable collapsible collapsed" style="text-align:center; font-size:90%; line-height:14px;"
style="height:42px;"

! style="width:250px;" rowspan="2"| Polling firm/Commissioner

! style="width:125px;" rowspan="2"| Fieldwork date

! style="width:50px;" rowspan="2"| Sample size

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo PSRM–PSOE.svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo del PP (2022).svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:Logo de Ciudadanos reducido (2023).svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:VOX logo.svg

! style="width:35px;"| File:Isotipo de Unidas Podemos (2023).svg

! style="width:35px;" rowspan="2"| Other/
None

! style="width:35px;" rowspan="2"| {{Qmark}}

! style="width:30px;" rowspan="2"| Lead

style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Socialist Party of the Region of Murcia}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Citizens (Spanish political party)}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}};"|

! style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Unidas Podemos}};"|

CEMOP

| 20–31 Mar 2023

| 1,200

| 10.4

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 64.4

| 0.4

| 5.7

| 0.3

| 0.1

| 18.7

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 54.0

CEMOP

| 23–31 Jan 2023

| 820

| 10.2

| {{Party shading/PP}}| 62.1

| 0.4

| 6.1

| 0.7

| 1.0

| 19.2

| style="background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}; color:white;"| 51.9

Results

class="wikitable" style="text-align:right;"

|+ ← Summary of the 28 May 2023 Regional Assembly of Murcia election results

colspan="7"| File:MurciaAssemblyDiagram2023.svg
style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2" colspan="2" width="525"| Parties and alliances

! colspan="3"| Popular vote

! colspan="2"| Seats

width="75"| Votes

! width="45"| %

! width="45"| ±pp

! width="35"| Total

! width="35"| +/−

width="1" style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}"|

| align="left"| People's Party (PP)

| 293,051

42.79style="color:green;"| +10.44

| 21

style="color:green;"| +5
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Socialist Party of the Region of Murcia}}"|

| align="left"| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)

| 175,505

25.62style="color:red;"| –6.84

| 13

style="color:red;"| –4
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Vox (political party)}}"|

| align="left"| Vox (Vox)

| 121,321

17.71style="color:green;"| +8.24

| 9

style="color:green;"| +5
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Unidas Podemos}}"|

| align="left"| We Can–United Left Greens–Green Alliance (Podemos–IU–AV)1

| 32,173

4.69style="color:red;"| –2.90

| 2

±0
colspan="7" bgcolor="#C0C0C0"|
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Citizens' Movement of Cartagena}}"|

| align="left"| MC Regional (MC REG)2

| 20,206

2.95style="color:green;"| +0.72

| 0

±0
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Citizens (Spanish political party)}}"|

| align="left"| Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS)

| 10,480

1.53style="color:red;"| –10.45

| 0

style="color:red;"| –6
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Green Coalition}}"|

| align="left"| Green Coalition (MR–VE)

| 8,919

1.30New

| 0

±0
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Animalist Party with the Environment}}"|

| align="left"| Animalist Party with the Environment (PACMA)3

| 5,957

0.86style="color:green;"| +0.02

| 0

±0
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Somos Región}}"|

| align="left"| For My Region (Por Mi Región)4

| 2,449

0.35style="color:red;"| –1.69

| 0

±0
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Tercera edad en acción}}"|

| align="left"| Seniors in Action (3e)

| 1,479

0.21style="color:green;"| +0.13

| 0

±0
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Free Murcia}}"|

| align="left"| Free Murcia (ML)

| 1,442

0.21New

| 0

±0
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Values}}"|

| align="left"| Values (Valores)

| 1,336

0.19New

| 0

±0
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain}}"|

| align="left"| Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)

| 1,152

0.16style="color:green;"| +0.04

| 0

±0
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Falange Española de las JONS (1976)}}"|

| align="left"| Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS)

| 554

0.08New

| 0

±0
style="color:inherit;background:{{party color|Cantonal Party}}"|

| align="left"| Cantonal Party (PCAN)

| 530

0.07±0.00

| 0

±0
align="left" colspan="2"| Blank ballots

| 8,263

1.20style="color:green;"| +0.67

| bgcolor="#E9E9E9" colspan="2"|

colspan="7" bgcolor="#E9E9E9"|
style="font-weight:bold;"

| align="left" colspan="2"| Total

| 684,817

bgcolor="#E9E9E9" colspan="2"|

| 45

±0
colspan="7" bgcolor="#E9E9E9"|
align="left" colspan="2"| Valid votes

| 684,817

98.56style="color:red;"| –0.74

| bgcolor="#E9E9E9" colspan="2" rowspan="5"|

align="left" colspan="2"| Invalid votes

| 10,038

1.44style="color:green;"| +0.74
style="font-weight:bold;"

| align="left" colspan="2"| Votes cast / turnout

| 694,855

63.25style="color:green;"| +0.93
align="left" colspan="2"| Abstentions

| 403,688

36.75style="color:red;"| –0.93
style="font-weight:bold;"

| align="left" colspan="2"| Registered voters

| 1,098,543

bgcolor="#E9E9E9" colspan="2"|
colspan="7" bgcolor="#E9E9E9"|
align="left" colspan="7"| Sources{{cite journal|journal=Boletín Oficial de la Región de Murcia|issue=135|date=14 June 2023|language=es|title=Resultados definitivos de las elecciones a la Asamblea de la Comunidad Autónoma de Murcia, así como los del voto cera desglosados por consulado de emisión|url=https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/documentos/Resultados%20definitivos.pdf|issn=1989-1474|pages=18540–18548}}
colspan="7" style="text-align:left; max-width:790px;"| {{hidden|ta1=left|title=Footnotes:|content={{ubl

| 1 We Can–United Left Greens–Green Alliance results are compared to the combined totals of We Can–Equo and Change the Region of Murcia (United Left–Greens+Anticapitalists) in the 2019 election.

| 2 MC Regional results are compared to Municipalist Coalition MC–CCD–CIFA–PITP–UxA totals in the 2019 election.

| 3 Animalist Party with the Environment results are compared to Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals totals in the 2019 election.

| 4 For My Region results are compared to We Are Region totals in the 2019 election.}}}}

{{bar box

|title=Popular vote

|titlebar=#ddd

|width=550px

|barwidth=500px

|bars=

{{bar percent|PP|{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}|42.79}}

{{bar percent|PSOE|{{party color|Socialist Party of the Region of Murcia}}|25.62}}

{{bar percent|Vox|{{party color|Vox (political party)}}|17.71}}

{{bar percent|Podemos–IU–AV|{{party color|Unidas Podemos}}|4.69}}

{{bar percent|MC REG|{{party color|Citizens' Movement of Cartagena}}|2.95}}

{{bar percent|CS|{{party color|Citizens (Spanish political party)}}|1.53}}

{{bar percent|MR–VE|{{party color|Green Coalition}}|1.30}}

{{bar percent|Others|#777777|2.21}}

{{bar percent|Blank ballots|#DDDDDD|1.20}}

}}

{{bar box

|title=Seats

|titlebar=#ddd

|width=550px

|barwidth=500px

|bars=

{{bar percent|PP|{{party color|People's Party of the Region of Murcia}}|46.67}}

{{bar percent|PSOE|{{party color|Socialist Party of the Region of Murcia}}|28.89}}

{{bar percent|Vox|{{party color|Vox (political party)}}|20.00}}

{{bar percent|Podemos–IU–AV|{{party color|Unidas Podemos}}|4.44}}

}}

Aftermath

{{See also|Third government of Fernando López Miras}}

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center;"
colspan="4" align="center" bgcolor="#C0C0C0"| Investiture
Fernando López Miras (PP)
colspan="2" width="150px"| Ballot →

! 7 July 2023

! 10 July 2023

colspan="2"| Required majority →

| 23 out of 45 {{xmark|15}}

| Simple {{xmark|15}}

width="1px" style="background:green;"|

| align="left"| {{Collapsible list | title = Yes

| • PP (21)

}}

| {{Composition bar|21|45|green|width=125px}}

| {{Composition bar|21|45|green|width=125px}}

style="color:inherit;background:red;"|

| align="left"| {{Collapsible list | title = No

| • PSOE (13)

| • Vox (9)

| • Podemos–IU–AV (2)

}}

| {{Composition bar|24|45|red|width=125px}}

| {{Composition bar|24|45|red|width=125px}}

style="color:inherit;background:gray;"|

| align="left"| Abstentions

| {{Composition bar|0|45|gray|width=125px}}

| {{Composition bar|0|45|gray|width=125px}}

style="color:inherit;background:black;"|

| align="left"| Absentees

| {{Composition bar|0|45|black|width=125px}}

| {{Composition bar|0|45|black|width=125px}}

align="left" colspan="6"| Sources{{cite news |last1=García Sánchez |first1=Álvaro |last2=Calvo |first2=Erena |last3=Reche |first3=Elisa |last4=Conway |first4=Aldo |date=7 July 2023 |title=López Miras cae en la primera votación para presidir la Región de Murcia y se encomienda al apoyo de Vox el lunes |url=https://www.eldiario.es/murcia/politica/lopez-miras-cae-primera-votacion-presidir-region-murcia-encomienda-apoyo-vox-lunes_1_10358366.html |language=es |newspaper=La Verdad |access-date=20 August 2023}}{{cite news |last1=García Sánchez |first1=Álvaro |last2=Reche |first2=Elisa |last3=M. Almagro |first3=Elisa |date=10 July 2023 |title=La investidura de López Miras fracasa y PP y Vox buscan en la Región de Murcia un pacto para después del 23J |url=https://www.eldiario.es/murcia/politica/investidura-lopez-miras-fracasa-previsto-vox-pp-buscan-murcia-pacto-despues-23j_1_10364411.html |language=es |newspaper=La Verdad |access-date=20 August 2023}}

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center;"
colspan="3" align="center" bgcolor="#C0C0C0"| Investiture
Fernando López Miras (PP)
colspan="2" width="150px"| Ballot →

! 7 September 2023

colspan="2"| Required majority →

| 23 out of 45 {{tick|15}}

width="1px" style="background:green;"|

| align="left"| {{Collapsible list | title = Yes

| • PP (21)

| • Vox (9)

}}

| {{Composition bar|30|45|green|width=125px}}

style="color:inherit;background:red;"|

| align="left"| {{Collapsible list | title = No

| • PSOE (13)

| • Podemos–IU–AV (2)

}}

| {{Composition bar|15|45|red|width=125px}}

style="color:inherit;background:gray;"|

| align="left"| Abstentions

| {{Composition bar|0|45|gray|width=125px}}

style="color:inherit;background:black;"|

| align="left"| Absentees

| {{Composition bar|0|45|black|width=125px}}

align="left" colspan="6"| Sources{{cite news |date=7 September 2019 |title=Fernando López Miras, investido presidente de Murcia con el apoyo de Vox |url=https://www.newtral.es/lopez-miras-murcia/20230907/ |language=es |newspaper=Newtral |access-date=1 October 2023}}

Notes

{{notelist}}

References

;Opinion poll sources

{{reflist|group="p"}}

;Other

{{reflist}}

{{Region of Murcia elections}}

{{Regional elections in Spain in the 2020s}}

Murcia

2020s

Category:2023 in Murcia (region)