2023 Warrandyte state by-election
{{Short description|none}}
{{Use Australian English|date=May 2023}}
{{Use dmy dates|date=June 2023}}
{{Infobox election
| country = Victoria
| type = parliamentary
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = 2022 Victorian state election
| previous_year = 2022
| next_election = 2026 Victorian state election
| next_year = 2026
| election_date = 26 August 2023
| seats_for_election = Electoral district of Warrandyte in the Victorian Legislative Assembly
| image1 = File:NicoleWernerMP b.jpg
| candidate1 = Nicole Werner
| party1 = Liberal Party of Australia (Victorian Division)
| popular_vote1 = 21,026
| percentage1 = 57.4%
| swing1 = {{increase}} 10.0
| image2 = 150x150px
| candidate2 = Tomas Lightbody
| party2 = Australian Greens Victoria
| popular_vote2 = 6,798
| percentage2 = 18.6%
| swing2 = {{increase}} 6.8
| 1blank = TCP
| 2blank = TCP swing
| 1data1 = 71.1%
| 2data1 = {{increase}} 16.8
| 1data2 = 28.9%
| 2data2 = {{increase}} 28.9
| map_image = File:Electoral district of Warrandyte (Victoria) 2022.svg
| map_size =
| map_caption = Location of the electoral district of Warrandyte, in Melbourne's outer eastern suburbs
| title = MP
| before_election = Ryan Smith
| before_party = Liberal Party of Australia (Victorian Division)
| after_election = Nicole Werner
| after_party = Liberal Party of Australia (Victorian Division)
}}
The 2023 Warrandyte state by-election was held on 26 August 2023 to elect the next member for Warrandyte in the Victorian Legislative Assembly, following the resignation of Liberal MP Ryan Smith.{{cite web |title=Victorian Liberal MP Ryan Smith quits politics, triggering byelection |date=30 May 2023 |url=https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victorian-liberal-mp-ryan-smith-quits-politics-triggering-byelection-20230531-p5dcoq.html |publisher=The Age}}
Background
The electoral district of Warrandyte was established in 1976 and has consistently been a safe seat for the Liberal Party except from 1982 to 1988 when it was held by Lou Hill of the Labor Party. According the 2021 Census, Warrandyte's median age is 43 with a weekly median household income of $2,134 while more than 37% of residents attaining a bachelor's degree or higher.{{cite web |url=https://abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2021/SED28301 |title=Warrandyte (Eastern Metropolitan) |author= |date=2021 |website=Australian Bureau of Statistics Census All persons QuickStats |publisher=Australian Bureau of Statistics |access-date=2023-06-08}} The district is characterised by the southern banks of the Yarra River, rolling hills, lush greenery, and pockets of bushland.
=Resignation of Ryan Smith=
Ryan Smith was first elected at the 2006 Victorian state election, replacing long-serving member Phil Honeywood who had held the seat since the 1988 election. Smith would continue to keep Warrandyte as a safe Liberal seat barring the 2018 and 2022 elections where it became marginal following the successes of the Australian Labor Party. Smith retained the seat at the 2022 election with a two-party-preferred vote of 54.2%, a slight swing from the previous election where there was a swing of over 7 per cent against him. Following the election of John Pesutto as leader, he was dropped from the shadow cabinet, having been a shadow minister under Matthew Guy and Michael O'Brien.
Smith announced his retirement in May 2023 after 16 years in parliament, with effect from 7 July. Smith did not tell leader John Pesutto of his resignation, with Pesutto instead learning about it through the media. He said that he had “become increasingly uncomfortable with the growing negative tone of politics, both internally and more broadly,” generally interpreted as Smith’s disquiet over Pesutto’s handling of the Moira Deeming-related leadership tensions that embroiled the Victorian Liberal Party in early and mid-2023.{{Cite web|url=https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/31/conservative-victorian-liberal-mp-ryan-smiths-resignation-blindsides-leader-john-pesutto|title=Conservative Victorian Liberal MP Ryan Smith's resignation blindsides leader John Pesutto | Victorian politics | The Guardian|website=amp.theguardian.com}}{{Cite web|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-31/ryan-smith-victorian-liberal-mp-resignation-sparks-byelection/102414882|title=Victorian state Liberal MP Ryan Smith resigns, sparking by-election in Melbourne's north-east - ABC News|website=amp.abc.net.au}}
Candidates
=Nominated candidates=
= Liberal =
The Liberal Party preselected Nicole Werner to run in the by-election. Werner stood as a candidate for Box Hill in 2022.{{cite news|title=Charity business developer Nicole Werner preselected to run for Liberal Party in Warrandyte by-election|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-18/warrandyte-byelection-liberal-candidate-preselection/102493670|date=June 18, 2023|access-date=June 18, 2023|publisher=ABC News (Australia)}}
Nicole is a former Pentecostal youth pastor{{Cite web|url=https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/former-pastor-nicole-werner-wins-warrandyte-liberal-party-preselection-20230618-p5dhfy.html|title=Former pastor Nicole Werner wins Warrandyte Liberal Party preselection|first=Broede|last=Carmody|date=18 June 2023|website=The Age}} and charity business developer.{{Cite news|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-18/warrandyte-byelection-liberal-candidate-preselection/102493670|title=Charity business developer Nicole Ta-Ei Werner to run on Liberal Party ticket in Warrandyte by-election|newspaper=ABC News |date=18 June 2023|via=www.abc.net.au}}
Eight other candidates also nominated for the Liberal Party preselection, including:
- Andrew Conlon, councillor for the City of Manningham
- Antonietta di Cosmo, electorate officer for Smith
- David Farrelly, candidate for Pakenham in 2022
- Maxwell Gratton, candidate for Ivanhoe in 2006
- Jason McClintock, candidate for Eltham in 2022
- Sarah Overton, a director for professional services firm KPMG
- John Roskam, former executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs
- Jemma Townson, former electorate officer for Katie Allen and Matthew Guy
- Allison Troth, former electorate officer for John Howard
There was also speculation that Tim Smith, the former MP for Kew would stand for preselection but no nominations were received on the cutoff date of 7 June 2023.{{cite news |last=Baxendale |first=Rachel |date=8 June 2023 |title=Nine to contest state Libs seat preselection |url=https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/nine-liberals-nominate-for-warrandyte-preselection-in-race-seen-as-test-of-john-pesuttos-leadership/news-story/243a55cc44a78943652bcadc03abd287 |work=The Australian |location=Melbourne, Victoria |access-date=2023-06-09}} Other speculated candidates for included 2022 candidates Lucas Moon (Richmond) and Cynthia Watson (Ringwood) as well as Caroline Inge, federal vice-president of the Liberal Party.
= Labor =
On 26 July 2023, it was reported that the Victorian Labor Party would not contest the by-election to instead focus their resources for the 2026 Victorian state election.{{Cite news |last=Carmody |first=Broede |date=26 July 2023 |title='Abandoned their own supporters': Labor won't run in Warrandyte byelection, MPs told |work=The Age | url=https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-won-t-run-in-warrandyte-byelection-mps-told-20230726-p5drd6.html | access-date=26 July 2023}} In the 2022 state election, the Labor Party ran Naomi Oakley who received 33.16% of the primary vote.{{Cite web|url=https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2022-state-election-results/results-by-district/warrandyte-district-results|title=Warrandyte District results|website=www.vec.vic.gov.au}}
= Greens =
Tomas Lightbody is running as the Greens' candidate in the by-election. Lightbody was elected to Manningham City Council at the age of 22 and has since been elected as Deputy Mayor of Manningham council.{{Cite web|url=https://www.manningham.vic.gov.au/about-council/how-council-works/find-your-local-councillor-and-ward/councillor-tomas-lightbody|title=Councillor Tomas Lightbody | Manningham City Council|website=www.manningham.vic.gov.au}}
= Other =
Maya Tesa stood as an independent. She has previously run in the Aston federal by-election where she received 7% of the primary vote {{Cite web|url=https://abc.net.au/news/elections/aston-by-election-2023|title=Aston By-election 2023 Results|website=abc.net.au}} and as a candidate for the LDP in Jagajaga and the North-Eastern Metropolitan Region in 2022.
Victorian Socialists candidate Colleen Bolger is calling for a rent freeze. Greg Cheesman is running with the Freedom Party of Victoria.
Family First Party candidate Richard Griffith-Jones has promised to introduce if elected legislation to ban drag queen storytime in public venues.https://www.heraldsun.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=HSWEB_WRE170_a_FBK&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.heraldsun.com.au%2Fnews%2Fvictoria%2Fwarrandyte-byelection-candidate-richard-griffithjones-vows-to-ban-drag-storytime-if-elected%2Fnews-story%2F596fe83b6315002b36be43d428445889&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=HIGH-Segment-7-SCORE
Raymond Hoser, a Snake Catcher{{Cite news |last=Cowie |first=Tom |date=22 July 2023 |title=Snake catcher, Gen Z hopefuls among field for Warrandyte byelection |work=The Age |url=https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/snake-catcher-gen-z-hopefuls-among-field-for-warrandyte-byelection-20230720-p5dpv8.html |access-date=26 July 2023}} and Whistleblower, announced his intention to run as an independent candidate, however this did not materialise.
=Historical two-party-preferred vote=
| class="wikitable"
|+ Two-party-preferred vote in Warrandyte, 1996–2022 | |||||||||
| align=right style="border-bottom: 2px solid darkgray;"
! colspan="2"| Election | 1996 | 1999 | 2002 | 2006 | 2010 | 2014 | 2018 | 2022 | |
| align=right
| width=1pt {{Australian party style|Liberal}}| | Liberal | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|63.90% | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|63.50% | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|56.30% | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|59.00% | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|63.87% | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|61.60% | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|53.88% | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|54.20% |
| align=right style="border-bottom: 2px solid darkgray;"
| width=1pt {{Australian party style|Labor}}| | Labor | 36.10% | 36.50% | 43.70% | 41.00% | 36.13% | 38.40% | 46.12% | 45.80% |
| align=right
! colspan="2"| Government | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|L/NP | {{Australian party shading/Labor}}|ALP | {{Australian party shading/Labor}}|ALP | {{Australian party shading/Labor}}|ALP | {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}|L/NP | {{Australian party shading/Labor}}|ALP | {{Australian party shading/Labor}}|ALP | {{Australian party shading/Labor}}|ALP |
=Previous election results=
{{Excerpt|Results of the 2022 Victorian state election (Legislative Assembly)|section=Warrandyte}}
Results
{{Election box begin
|title=2023 Warrandyte state by-election{{cite web |title=Warrandyte District by-election provisional results |url=https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/warrandyte-district-by-election/warrandyte-district-by-election-results/results-by-district/warrandyte-district-results |publisher=Victorian Electoral Commission |access-date=4 September 2023}}{{cite web |title=Results - Warrandyte by-election 2023 |url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/warrandyte-by-election-2023/results |website=ABC Elections |publisher=Australian Broadcasting Corporation |access-date=4 September 2023}}
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Nicole Werner
|party = Liberal Vic
|votes = 21,921
|percentage = 57.3
|change = +9.9
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Tomas Lightbody
|party = Greens Vic
|votes = 7,130
|percentage = 18.6
|change = +6.9
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Cary de Wit
|party = Democratic Labour
|votes = 2,204
|percentage = 5.8
|change = +5.8
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Maya Tesa
|party = Independent
|votes = 1,556
|percentage = 4.1
|change = +4.1
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Colleen Bolger
|party = Victorian Socialists
|votes = 1,459
|percentage = 3.8
|change = +3.8
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Richard Griffith-Jones
|party = Family First 2021
|votes = 1,073
|percentage = 2.8
|change = −1.2
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Jack Corcoran
|party = Sustainable Australia
|votes = 1,030
|percentage = 2.7
|change = +2.7
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Greg Cheesman
|party = Freedom
|votes = 846
|percentage = 2.2
|change = +2.2
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Wai Man Raymond Chow
|party = Independent
|votes = 694
|percentage = 1.8
|change = +1.8
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Morgan Ranieri
|party = Independent
|votes = 168
|percentage = 0.4
|change = +0.4
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Alan Max Menadue
|party = Independent
|votes = 121
|percentage = 0.3
|change = +0.3
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Philip Jenkins
|party = Independent
|votes = 77
|percentage = 0.2
|change = +0.2
}}
{{Election box formal
|votes = 38,279
|percentage = 94.2
|change = −2.4
}}
{{Election box informal
|votes = 2,344
|percentage = 5.8
|change = +2.4
}}
{{Election box turnout
|votes = 40,623
|percentage = 79.7
|change = −11.9
}}
{{Election box 2cp}}
{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Nicole Werner
|party = Liberal Vic
|votes = 27,334
|percentage = 71.0
|change = +16.7
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party
|candidate = Tomas Lightbody
|party = Greens Vic
|votes = 11,172
|percentage = 29.0
|change = +29.0
}}
{{Election box hold AU party|
|winner = Liberal
|swing = No
}}
{{Election box end}}
References
{{Reflist}}
{{Victorian state by-elections 60th parl}}
{{DEFAULTSORT:Warrandyte by-election, 2023}}