2024 United States presidential election in Arizona
{{Use American English|date=June 2025}}
{{Short description|none}}
{{Use mdy dates|date=September 2023}}
{{main|2024 United States presidential election}}
{{Row hover highlight}}
{{Infobox election
| election_name = 2024 United States presidential election in Arizona
| country = Arizona
| type = Presidential
| college_voted = Yes
| previous_election = 2020 United States presidential election in Arizona
| previous_year = 2020
| election_date = November 5, 2024
| next_election = 2028 United States presidential election in Arizona
| next_year = 2028
| turnout = 78.49% (of registered voters) {{decrease}} 1.4 pp
| title = President
| before_election = Joe Biden
| before_party = Democratic Party (United States)
| after_election = Donald Trump
| after_party = Republican Party (United States)
| image1 = TrumpPortrait (3x4a).jpg
| nominee1 = Donald Trump
| party1 = Republican Party (United States)
| home_state1 = Florida
| running_mate1 = JD Vance
| image2 = Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg
| nominee2 = Kamala Harris
| party2 = Democratic Party (United States)
| home_state2 = California
| running_mate2 = Tim Walz
| image_size = x200px
| electoral_vote1 = 11
| electoral_vote2 = 0
| popular_vote1 = 1,770,242
| popular_vote2 = 1,582,860
| percentage1 = 52.22%
| percentage2 = 46.69%
| map_image = {{Switcher
| 250px
| County results
| 250px
| Congressional district results
| 250px
| Precinct results
}}
| map_caption = {{col-begin}}
{{col-2}}
Trump
{{legend|#F2B3BE|40–50%}}
{{legend|#E27F90|50–60%}}
{{legend|#CC2F4A|60–70%}}
{{legend|#D40000|70–80%}}
{{legend|#AA0000|80–90%}}
{{legend|#800000|90–100%}}
{{col-2}}
Harris
{{legend|#B9D7FF|40–50%}}
{{legend|#86B6F2|50–60%}}
{{legend|#4389E3|60–70%}}
{{legend|#1666CB|70–80%}}
{{legend|#0645B4|80–90%}}
{{legend|#002B84|90–100%}}
{{col-3}}
Tie/No Data
{{legend|#D4C4DC}}
{{legend|#808080}}
{{col-end}}
}}
{{Elections in Arizona sidebar}}
Arizona participated in the 2024 United States presidential election, alongside the other 49 states and Washington, D.C., on November 5, 2024. Arizona voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.{{#invoke:cite|web|last1=Wang |first1=Hansi |last2=Jin |first2=Connie |last3=Levitt |first3=Zach |title=Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats |url=https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats |publisher=NPR |access-date=August 20, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210819123145/https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats |archive-date=August 19, 2021 |date=April 26, 2021 |url-status=live}} Arizona was considered a crucial swing state in 2024.
The Republican nominee was former president Donald Trump.{{#invoke:cite|news|last1=Gold |first1=Michael |last2=Nehamas |first2=Nicholas |date=March 13, 2024 |title=Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/us/politics/trump-republican-nomination.html |access-date=July 22, 2024 |work=The New York Times |issn=0362-4331 |archive-date=March 13, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240313034919/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/us/politics/trump-republican-nomination.html |url-status=live}} Formerly a moderately red state, Trump won Arizona in 2016 by 3.5%, a reduced margin of Republican victory compared to previous cycles, despite a more favourable presidential election year for the GOP nationwide. Biden narrowly won in Arizona in 2020 by 0.3%. Due to the diversification of Maricopa County, a traditionally Republican stronghold that holds 61.6% of the state's population, the state was now considered a purple state.{{#invoke:cite|web|last=|first=|date=|title=County Population Totals: 2010-2019|url=https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-counties-total.html|access-date=February 1, 2021|website=United States Census Bureau|archive-date=April 18, 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190418145155/https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-counties-total.html|url-status=live}}{{#invoke:cite|news|last1=Collins|first1=Keith|last2=Fessenden|first2=Ford|last3=Gamio|first3=Lazaro|last4=Harris|first4=Rich|last5=Keefe|first5=John|last6=Lu|first6=Denise|last7=Lutz|first7=Eleanor|last8=Schoenfeld Walker|first8=Amy|last9=Watkins|first9=Derek|date=2020-11-10|title=Phoenix's Blue Wave Pushes Arizona Toward Biden|work=The New York Times|url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/09/us/arizona-election-battleground-state-counties.html|access-date=February 1, 2021|issn=0362-4331|archive-date=January 31, 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210131071916/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/09/us/arizona-election-battleground-state-counties.html|url-status=live}} Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, but his petition was eventually withdrawn.{{#invoke:cite|web|last=Pellish |first=Aaron |date=2024-02-27 |title=Super PAC supporting RFK Jr. says it has gathered enough signatures to put him on ballot in Arizona, Georgia {{!}} CNN Politics |url=https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/27/politics/rfk-pac-signatures-ballot-arizona-georgia/index.html |access-date=2024-02-27 |website=CNN |language=en}}{{#invoke:cite|web|last1=McDuffie |first1=Will |last2=Santucci |first2=John |date=August 22, 2024 |title=RFK Jr. withdraws petition to be on Arizona ballot amid plans to end campaign |url=https://abcnews.go.com/US/rfk-jr-withdraws-petition-arizona-ballot-amid-plans/story?id=113081529 |access-date=2024-08-24 |website=ABC News |language=en}}
Donald Trump won Arizona by 5.5%, surpassing the margins predicted by most polls.{{cite web |title=Trump wins Arizona, final state called in 2024 presidential election |url=https://www.azfamily.com/2024/11/10/trump-wins-arizona-final-state-called-2024-presidential-election/ |website=Arizona Family |access-date=21 November 2024 |date=November 9, 2024}} This was the largest margin of victory since 2012 for a Republican presidential candidate, as well as the first time since 2012 that a presidential candidate won the state with an absolute majority of the vote. It was Trump's largest margin of victory in the seven swing states he won, and Trump's strongest performance in a state won by Biden in 2020.
Primary elections
= Democratic primary =
{{Main|2024 Arizona Democratic presidential primary}}
The Arizona Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.[https://www.reuters.com/world/us/glance-march-19-presidential-primary-states-delegate-counts-2024-03-16/ At a glance: March 19 US presidential primary states and delegate counts], Reuters, March 19, 2024{{2024AZDem}}
= Republican primary =
{{Main|2024 Arizona Republican presidential primary}}
The Arizona Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.{{2024AZRep}}
Arizona Representative Rachel Jones, a Republican, introduced an unsuccessful resolution in February 2024 that would request that the Arizona governor "change the manner of the presidential election by appointing the eleven presidential electors to the Republican primary winner to offset the removal of a Republican candidate from the ballot in Colorado and Maine".{{#invoke:cite|news|last1=Stern |first1=Ray |date=February 15, 2024 |title=Arizona lawmaker wants to give state electoral votes to GOP nominee before 2024 election |url=https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/legislature/2024/02/15/arizona-bill-would-give-votes-to-gop-nominee-before-2024-election/72605621007/ |archive-url=https://archive.today/20240218080431/https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/legislature/2024/02/15/arizona-bill-would-give-votes-to-gop-nominee-before-2024-election/72605621007/ |archive-date=February 18, 2024 |access-date=February 18, 2024 |work=Arizona Republic}}{{#invoke:cite|web|last1=Jones |first1=Rachel |title=H.C.R. 2055 |url=https://www.azleg.gov/legtext/56leg/2R/proposed/H.HCR2055JONES%20SE2.pdf |access-date=15 February 2024 |publisher=Arizona Legislature}}
General election
= Candidates =
The following candidates have qualified and were on the presidential general election ballot in Arizona.{{#invoke:cite|web|title=2024 General Election - Candidate Listing (Federal) |url=https://apps.arizona.vote/electioninfo/Election/47 |access-date=September 16, 2024 |website=Arizona Secretary of State}}
- Kamala Harris — Democratic
- Donald Trump — Republican
- Chase Oliver — Libertarian
- Jill Stein — Green
- President R Boddie — Nonpartisan (Write-in)
- Dawanda Shelton — Independent (Write-in)
- Joel Skousen — Constitution Party (Write-in)
= Predictions =
= Election rule changes =
Mi Familia Vota led a coalition of civil rights organizations with the US Department of Justice to sue Arizona over a 2022 law passed by its GOP legislature that tried to bar voters who had not provided proof of citizenship when they registered.{{#invoke:cite|news|last=Wang |first=Hansi Lo |date=August 23, 2024 |title=Supreme Court grants GOP bid to require citizenship proof for some Arizona voters |url=https://www.npr.org/2024/08/22/nx-s1-5084146/voter-registration-arizona-supreme-court-citizenship |work=NPR}} In Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota, the Supreme Court ruled that those already registered voters could still vote, but that new voters had to provide proof of citizenship if registering with the state of Arizona's voter registration form. Voters using the national voter registration form will still be registered and do not have to provide proof of citizenship.{{#invoke:cite|web|last=Millhiser |first=Ian |date=2024-08-22 |title=The Supreme Court decides not to disenfranchise thousands of swing state voters |url=https://www.vox.com/scotus/368310/supreme-court-rnc-mi-famila-vota |access-date=2024-08-23 |website=Vox |language=en-US}}
= Polling =
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center;font-size:90%;line-height:17px"
!Source of poll !Dates !Dates ! class="unsortable" |Kamala ! class="unsortable" |Donald ! Other / !Margin |
| 270ToWin[https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/arizona 270ToWin]
|October 22 – November 4, 2024 |November 5, 2024 |46.8% | style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |48.4% |4.8% | style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |Trump +1.6% |
| 538[https://web.archive.org/web/20220604072147/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/ 538]
|through November 4, 2024 |November 5, 2024 |46.8% | style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |48.9% |4.3% | style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |Trump +2.1% |
| Silver Bulletin[https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model Silver Bulletin]
|through November 4, 2024 |November 5, 2024 |46.9% | style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |49.3% |3.8% | style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |Trump +2.4% |
| The Hill/DDHQ[https://elections2024.thehill.com/arizona/harris-trump-arizona/ The Hill/DDHQ]
|through November 4, 2024 |November 5, 2024 |47.3% | style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |49.9% |2.8% | style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |Trump +2.6% |
| colspan="3" |Average
|47.0% | style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |49.1% |3.9% | style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |Trump +2.1% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="text-align:center;font-size:90%;line-height:17px"
!Source of poll !Dates !Dates ! class="unsortable" |Kamala ! class="unsortable" |Donald ! class="unsortable" |Jill ! class="unsortable" |Cornel ! class="unsortable" |Chase ! class="unsortable" | Others/ !Margin |
| Race to the WH[https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls Race to the WH]
|through October 10, 2024 |October 15, 2024 |46.4% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|48.8% |1.0% |{{N/A}} |0.8% |3.0% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|Trump +2.4% |
| 270toWin[https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/arizona 270toWin]
|October 2 – 12, 2024 |October 12, 2024 |47.4% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|47.6% |1.0% |0.0% |0.5% |3.5% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|Trump +0.2% |
| colspan="3" |Average
|46.9% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|48.1% |1.0% |0.0% |0.8% |3.2% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|Trump +1.2% |
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" | |
| valign="bottom"
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample | name=key|group=lower-alpha}}
! Margin ! class="unsortable" | Kamala ! class="unsortable" | Donald ! class="unsortable" | Cornel ! class="unsortable" | Jill ! class="unsortable" | Chase ! class="unsortable" | Other / |
| style="text-align:left;" rowspan="4"|HarrisX
|rowspan="4"|November 3–5, 2024 |rowspan="2"|1,636 (RV) |rowspan="4"|± 2.4% |44% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |47% |1% |1% |– |7% | |
| 46%{{#tag:ref | name="lean"|group=lower-alpha}}
|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |50% |2% |2% |– |– |
| rowspan="2"|1,468 (LV)
|46% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |49% |1% |1% |– |3% | |
| 47%{{#tag:ref | name="lean"|group=lower-alpha}}
|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |50% |2% |1% |– |– |
| style="text-align:left;"|AtlasIntel
| data-sort-value="2024-11-04" |November 3–4, 2024 |875 (LV) |± 3.0% |46% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |51% |– |1% |0% |2% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|AtlasIntel
| data-sort-value="2024-11-02" |November 1–2, 2024 |967 (LV) |± 3.0% |45% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |52% |– |1% |1% |1% | |
| style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|The New York Times/Siena College
|rowspan="2"|October 25 – November 2, 2024 |1,025 (RV) |rowspan="2"|± 3.5% |42% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|47% |– |3% |2% |6% | |
| 1,025 (LV)
|44% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|48% |– |2% |1% |5% | |
| style="text-align:left;" rowspan="3"|Focaldata{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://www.focaldata.com/blog/our-final-report-on-the-us-presidential-election|title=Our final report on the US presidential election|website=Focaldata|date=November 4, 2024}}
|rowspan="3"|October 3 – November 1, 2024 |1,779 (LV) |– |48% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |49% |– |1% |1% |1% | |
| 1,603 (RV)
|± 2.3% |style="background-color:{{Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |49% |47% |– |2% |1% |1% | |
| 1,779 (A)
|– |style="background-color:{{Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |49% |47% |– |2% |1% |1% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|AtlasIntel
| data-sort-value="2024-10-31" |October 30–31, 2024 |1,005 (LV) |± 3.0% |46% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |51% |– |1% |1% |1% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Redfield & Wilton Strategies{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/final-us-swing-states-voting-intention-28-31-october/|title=Final US Swing States Voting Intention (28-31 October)|website=Redfield & Wilton Strategies|date=November 1, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-10-31" |October 28–31, 2024 |652 (LV) |– |47% | style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |48% |– |1% |1% |3% | |
| style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|YouGov{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Times_SAY24_20241101.pdf|title=The Times / SAY Poll: October 25-31, 2024|website=YouGov|date=November 1, 2024}}{{#tag:ref | name=times|group=upper-alpha}}
|rowspan="2"|October 25–31, 2024 |880 (RV) |rowspan="2"|± 4.4% |47% |style="color:black;background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|48% |0% |1% |– |4% |
| 856 (LV)
|48% |48% |0% |0% |– |4% | |
| style="text-align:left;" |Noble Predictive Insights{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/az-poll-of-record-trump-1-gallego-4|title=AZ POLL OF RECORD: Trump +1, Gallego +4|date=October 31, 2024|website=Noble Predictive Insights}}
| data-sort-value="2024-10-30" |October 28–30, 2024 |775 (LV) |± 3.5% |47% | style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |48% |– |2% |0% |3% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Data for Progress (D){{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/11/1/final-data-for-progress-swing-state-polls|title=Final Data for Progress Swing State Polls Show Harris and Trump in Close Race: Harris Ahead by 2 in PA and NV, 1 in GA; Trump Up by 1 in AZ|website=Data for Progress|date=November 1, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-10-30" |October 25–30, 2024 |1,079 (LV) |± 3.0% |47% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |48% |– |1% |0% |4% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|AtlasIntel
| data-sort-value="2024-10-29" |October 25–29, 2024 |1,458 (LV) |± 3.0% |46% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |51% |– |1% |0% |2% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Mitchell Research & Communications
| data-sort-value="2024-10-27" |October 28, 2024 |610 (LV) |± 4.0% |48% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |50% |– |0% |1% |1% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Data Orbital{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://dataorbital.com/2024/10/new-data-orbital-arizona-2024-general-election-statewide-poll/|title=New Data Orbital Arizona 2024 General Election Statewide Poll|website=Data Orbital|date=October 29, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-10-28" |October 26–28, 2024 |550 (LV) |± 4.3% |42% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |50% |– |1% |1% |6% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Redfield & Wilton Strategies{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-25-27-october-2024/|title=Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (25-27 October 2024) |website=Redfield & Wilton Strategies|date=October 29, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-10-22" |October 25–27, 2024 |901 (LV) |– |47% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |49% |– |1% |1% |2% | |
| style="text-align:left;" |J.L. Partners{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://jlpartners.com/arizona-likely-voters-polling-|title=ARIZONA LIKELY VOTERS POLLING|website=J.L. Partners|date=November 4, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-10-26" |October 24–26, 2024 |500 (LV) |± 4.4% |48% | style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |49% |– |0% |1% |2%{{#tag:ref | name="Other2"|group=lower-alpha}} |
| style="text-align:left;" |CNN/SSRS{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/29/politics/cnn-polls-arizona-nevada-trump-harris/index.html|title=CNN Polls: Harris and Trump locked in close races in Arizona and Nevada as pool of persuadable voters shrinks
|first1=Jennifer|last1=Agiesta|first2=Ariel|last2=Edwards-Levy|first3=Edward|last3=Wu|website=CNN|date=October 29, 2024}} | data-sort-value="2024-10-26" |October 21–26, 2024 |781 (LV) |± 4.4% |style="color:black;background-color:{{Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |48% |47% |– |1% |2% |2% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Redfield & Wilton Strategies{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-20-22-october-2024/|title=Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (20 – 22 October 2024)
|website=Redfield & Wilton Strategies|date=October 25, 2024}} | data-sort-value="2024-10-22" |October 20–22, 2024 |710 (LV) |– |46% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |48% |– |1% |1% |4% | |
| rowspan="2" style="text-align:left;" |Bloomberg/Morning Consult
| rowspan="2" |October 16–20, 2024 |915 (RV) | rowspan="2" |± 3.0% |48% |48% |– |1% |2% |1% | |
| 861 (LV)
|48% |48% |– |1% |2% |1% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Redfield & Wilton Strategies{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-16-18-october-2024/|title=Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (16 – 18 October 2024)|website=Redfield & Wilton Strategies|date=October 21, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-10-18" |October 16–18, 2024 |691 (LV) |– |46% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|49% |– |1% |1% |3% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|AtlasIntel
| data-sort-value="2024-10-17" |October 12–17, 2024 |1,440 (LV) |± 3.0% |49% |49% |– |1% |0% |1% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Redfield & Wilton Strategies{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-12-14-october-2024/|title=Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (12 – 14 October 2024)|website=Redfield & Wilton Strategies|date=October 16, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-10-14" |October 12–14, 2024 |1,141 (LV) |– |46% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|48% |– |1% |1% |4% | |
| style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|The New York Times/Siena College
|rowspan="2"|October 7–10, 2024 |808 (RV) |rowspan="2"|± 4.0% |44% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|49% |– |2% |1% |4% | |
| 808 (LV)
|45% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|50% |– |1% |0% |4% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Redfield & Wilton Strategies{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-27-september-2-october-2024/|title=Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (27 September – 2 October 2024)|website=Redfield & Wilton Strategies|date=October 7, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-10-02" |September 27 – October 2, 2024 |555 (LV) |– |47% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|48% |– |1% |1% |3% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D){{#tag:ref|Poll commissioned by AARP|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-10-01" |September 24 – October 1, 2024 |600 (LV) |± 4.0% |47% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|49% |– |1% |0% |3% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|AtlasIntel
| data-sort-value="2024-09-25" |September 20–25, 2024 |946 (LV) |± 3.0% |49% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|50% |– |0% |– |1% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)
| data-sort-value="2024-09-25" |September 19–25, 2024 |409 (LV) |– |style="color:black;background-color:{{Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|50% |47% |– |1% |– |2% | |
| rowspan="2" style="text-align:left;" |Bloomberg/Morning Consult
| rowspan="2" |September 19–25, 2024 |977 (RV) | rowspan="2" |± 3.0% | style="color:black;background-color:{{Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |49% |46% |– |1% |2% |2% | |
| 926 (LV)
| style="color:black;background-color:{{Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |49% |46% |– |1% |2% |2% | |
| style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|Fox News
|rowspan="2"|September 20−24, 2024 |1,021 (RV) |± 3.0% |47% | style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |49% |1% |1% |2% |− | |
| 764 (LV)
|± 3.5% |47% | style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |50% |0% |1% |2% |− | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Suffolk University/USA Today{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/27/exclusive-poll-arizona-trump-leads-harris/75385504007/|title=Donald Trump holds lead over Kamala Harris in Arizona, exclusive poll finds|first=Rebecca|last=Morin|website=USA Today|date=September 27, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-09-24" |September 19−24, 2024 |500 (LV) |± 4.4% |42% | style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |48% |– |1% |1% |8% | |
| style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|The New York Times/Siena College
| rowspan="2" |September 17–21, 2024 |713 (RV) |rowspan="2"|± 4.4% |42% | style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |47% |– |2% |3% |6% | |
| 713 (LV)
|43% | style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |48% |– |2% |2% |5% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Redfield & Wilton Strategies{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-16-19-september-2024/|title=Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (16 – 19 September 2024)|website=Redfield & Wilton Strategies|date=September 23, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-09-19" |September 16–19, 2024 |789 (LV) |– |47% |47% |– |1% |1% |4% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Redfield & Wilton Strategies{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-6-9-september-2024/|title=Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (6 – 9 September 2024)|website=Redfield & Wilton Strategies|date=September 10, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-09-06" |September 6–9, 2024 |765 (LV) |– |46% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|47% |– |1% |1% |5% | |
| style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|TIPP Insights{{#tag:ref | name=AG|group=upper-alpha}}
|rowspan="2"|September 3–5, 2024 |1,015 (RV) |rowspan="2"|± 3.2% |46% |46% |1% |1% |– |6% |
| 949 (LV)
|48% |48% |1% |1% |– |2% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|YouGov{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Times_SAY24_20240904_state_poll_results_XTElWNX.pdf#page=14|title=The Times / SAY Poll: Arizona|website=YouGov|date=September 5, 2024}}{{#tag:ref | name=times|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-09-03" |August 23 – September 3, 2024 |900 (RV) |± 4.2% |45% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|47% |1% |1% |– |6%{{#tag:ref|"Other" with 2%|name="Other2"|group=lower-alpha}} |
| style="text-align:left;" |CNN/SSRS{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/04/politics/cnn-polls-battleground-states/index.html|title=CNN polls across six battlegrounds find Georgia and Pennsylvania are key toss-ups|first1=Jennifer|last1=Agiesta|first2=Ariel|last2=Edwards-Levy|first3=Edward|last3=Wu|website=CNN|date=September 4, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-08-29" |August 23–29, 2024 |682 (LV) |± 4.7% |44% | style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |49% |– |2% |1% |4% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Redfield & Wilton Strategies{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-25-28-august-2024/|title=Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (25 – 28 August 2024)|website=Redfield & Wilton Strategies|date=August 30, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-08-28" |August 25–28, 2024 |530 (LV) |– |45% | style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |46% |– |1% |1% |7% | |
| rowspan="2" style="text-align:left;" |Bloomberg/Morning Consult
| rowspan="2" |August 23–26, 2024 |776 (LV) |± 4.0% | style="color:black;background-color:{{Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |49% |47% |– |0% |2% |2% | |
| 758 (RV)
|± 3.0% | style="color:black;background-color:{{Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |49% |47% |– |0% |2% |2% | |
| style="text-align:left;" |Fox News
| data-sort-value="2024-08-26 " |August 23–26, 2024 |1,014 (RV) |± 3.0% | style="color:black;background-color:{{Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |48% |47% |1% |1% |2% |1% |
{{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#CFF|title=Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" | |
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample | name=key|group=lower-alpha}}
! Margin ! class="unsortable" | Kamala ! class="unsortable" | Donald ! class="unsortable" | Robert F. ! class="unsortable" | Cornel ! class="unsortable" | Jill ! class="unsortable" | Chase ! class="unsortable" | Other / |
| style="text-align:left;"|The Wall Street Journal
| data-sort-value="2024-10-08" |September 28 – October 8, 2024 |600 (RV) |± 5.0% |style="color:black;background-color:{{Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|47% |45% |0% |0% |1% |1% |6% | |
| style="text-align:left;" |Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R){{#tag:ref | name=PGPF|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-09-29" |September 23–29, 2024 |400 (LV) |± 4.9% |47% |47% |0% |0% |2% |1% |3% |
| style="background:lightyellow;"
| style="border-right-style:hidden; background:lightyellow;" | | style="border-right-style:hidden; " data-sort-value="2024-07-21" | August 23, 2024 | colspan="9" | Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | |
| style="text-align:left;" |Spry Strategies (R)
| data-sort-value="2024-08-20" |August 14–20, 2024 |600 (LV) |± 4.0% |46% |46% |2% |– |1% |– |5% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Rasmussen Reports (R){{#tag:ref | name=NUSA|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-08-17" |August 13–17, 2024 |1,187 (LV) |– |44% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|45% |7% |1% |0% |– |3% |
| style="text-align:left;" rowspan="3"|Focaldata
|rowspan="3"|August 6–16, 2024 |702 (LV) |rowspan="3"|± 3.7% |45% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|46% |7% |– |0% |0% |2% | |
| 702 (RV)
|45% |45% |9% |– |0% |0% |1% | |
| 702 (A)
|42% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|46% |9% |– |0% |0% |3% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Redfield & Wilton Strategies{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-12-15-august-2024/|title=Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (12 – 15 August 2024)|website=Redfield & Wilton Strategies|date=August 19, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-08-15" |August 12–15, 2024 |592 (LV) |– |43% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|44% |5% |– |1% |1% |6% | |
| style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|The New York Times/Siena College
|rowspan="2"|August 8–15, 2024 |677 (RV) |rowspan="2"|± 4.4% |style="color:black;background-color:{{Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|45% |42% |6% |0% |1% |2% |4% | |
| 677 (LV)
|style="color:black;background-color:{{Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|47% |43% |5% |0% |0% |1% |4% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Navigator Research (D)
| data-sort-value="2024-08-08" |July 31 – August 8, 2024 |600 (LV) |± 4.0% |45% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|46% |5% |0% |0% |0% |4% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)
| data-sort-value="2024-08-08" |July 26 – August 8, 2024 |435 (LV) |– |style="color:black;background-color:{{Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|46% |42% |7% |1% |0% |4% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Redfield & Wilton Strategies{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-31-july-3-august-2024/|title=Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (31 July – 3 August 2024)|website=Redfield & Wilton Strategies|date=August 6, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-08-03" |July 31 – August 3, 2024 |567 (LV) |– |style="color:black;background-color:{{Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|44% |43% |4% |– |0% |0% |9% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Bloomberg/Morning Consult
| data-sort-value="2024-07-30" |July 24–28, 2024 |804 (RV) |± 3.0% |style="color:black;background-color:{{Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|48% |44% |5% |– |0% |2% |1% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Redfield & Wilton Strategies{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-22-24-july-2024/|title=Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (22-24 July 2024)|website=Redfield & Wilton Strategies|date=July 25, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-26" |July 22–24, 2024 |510 (LV) |– |43% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|46% |4% |– |0% |1% |6% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Emerson College
| data-sort-value="2024-07-25" |July 22–23, 2024 |800 (RV) |± 3.4% |40% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|48% |5% |1% |1% |1% |4% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" | |
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample | name=key|group=lower-alpha}}
! Margin ! class="unsortable" | Kamala ! class="unsortable" | Donald ! class="unsortable" | Robert F. ! class="unsortable" | Jill ! class="unsortable" | Other / |
| style="background:lightyellow;"
| style="border-right-style:hidden; background:lightyellow;" | | style="border-right-style:hidden; " data-sort-value="2024-07-21" | August 23, 2024 | colspan="7" | Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Public Policy Polling (D){{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20240722_swing_PPP.pdf|title=Battleground State Surveys Show Harris can Defeat Trump|website=FiveThirtyEight|date=July 21, 2024}}{{#tag:ref|Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC|name=clean|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-21" |July 17–20, 2024 |738 (RV) |± 3.6% |40% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|46% |7% |1% |6% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" | |
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample | name=key|group=lower-alpha}}
! Margin ! class="unsortable" | Kamala ! class="unsortable" | Donald ! class="unsortable" | Robert F. ! class="unsortable" | Other / |
| style="background:lightyellow;"
| style="border-right-style:hidden; background:lightyellow;" | | style="border-right-style:hidden; " data-sort-value="2024-07-21" | August 23, 2024 | colspan="6" | Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Peak Insights (R){{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/725925/exclusive-gop-poll-finds-tied-arizona-senate-race/?unlock=4PB6RUXBTO0IOS46|title=Exclusive: GOP Poll Finds Tied Arizona Senate Race|first=Nicholas |last=Anastácio |date=August 15, 2024|website=National Journal}}{{#tag:ref|Poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee|name=NRSC|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-08-05" |July 31 – August 5, 2024 |800 (LV) |± 3.0% |42% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|44% |11% |3% |
{{Hidden end}}
{{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#CFF|title=Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" | ||
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample | name=key|group=lower-alpha}}
! Margin ! class="unsortable" | Joe ! class="unsortable" | Donald ! class="unsortable" | Robert F. ! class="unsortable" | Cornel ! class="unsortable" | Jill ! class="unsortable" | Other / | |
| style="background:lightyellow;"
| style="border-right-style:hidden;" | | style="border-right-style:hidden; " data-sort-value="2024-07-21" | July 21, 2024 | colspan="8" | Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|Public Policy Polling (D){{#tag:ref | name=clean|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-21" |July 17–20, 2024 |738 (RV) |± 3.6% |40% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|45% |7% |– |2% |6% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Redfield & Wilton Strategies{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-16-18-july-2024/|title=Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (16-18 July 2024)|website=Redfield & Wilton Strategies|date=July 21, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-18" |July 16–18, 2024 |456 (LV) |– |40% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|44% |7% |– |1% |8%{{#tag:ref|Chase Oliver (L) with 1%|name="Oliver1"|group=lower-alpha}} | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|Emerson College{{#tag:ref | name=DNext|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-18" |July 15–16, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |36% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|46% |6% |1% |1% |10%{{#tag:ref | name="Oliver1"|group=lower-alpha}} |
| style="text-align:left;"|Rasmussen Reports (R){{#tag:ref|Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute|name=heartland|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-19" |July 5–12, 2024 |1,101 (LV) |± 3.0% |37% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|46% |9% |1% |1% |6% | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|YouGov{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Times_SAY24_20240712_state_poll_results.pdf|title=The Times / SAY Poll: Arizona|website=YouGov|date=July 15, 2024}}{{#tag:ref|Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University|name=times|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-15" |July 4–12, 2024 |900 (RV) |± 3.9% |37% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|44% |5% |1% |2% |11% | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|J.L. Partners{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://www.nationalreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Final-Toplines-General.pdf|title=Statewide Arizona Poll|website=National Review|date=July 17, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-17" |July 10–11, 2024 |513 (LV) |± 4.3% |40% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|46% |4% |– |2% |8% | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|Redfield & Wilton Strategies{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-8-10-july-2024/|title=Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (8-10 July 2024)|website=Redfield & Wilton Strategies|date=July 15, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-10" |July 8–10, 2024 |419 (LV) |– |39% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|43% |7% |– |1% |10%{{#tag:ref|Chase Oliver (L) with 0%|name="Oliver0"|group=lower-alpha}} | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|Echelon Insights{{#tag:ref | name=NC|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-08" |July 1–8, 2024 |601 (LV) |± 5.0% |39% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|41% |11% |1% |0% |8%{{#tag:ref | name="Oliver1"|group=lower-alpha}} |
| style="text-align:left;"|Bloomberg/Morning Consult
| data-sort-value="2024-07-06" |July 1–5, 2024 |781 (RV) |± 4.0% |38% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|45% |9% |1% |0% |7% | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|North Star Opinion Research (R){{#tag:ref | name=AG|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-06-21" |June 17–20, 2024 |600 (LV) |± 4.0% |32% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|42% |13% |– |3% |10%{{#tag:ref|Chase Oliver (L) with 2%|group=lower-alpha}} | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Emerson College
| data-sort-value="2024-06-20" |June 13–18, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |39% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|43% |8% |1% |1% |8% | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|Rasmussen Reports (R)
| data-sort-value="2024-06-14" |June 11–13, 2024 |750 (RV) |± 4.0% |37% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|41% |10% |2% |1% |9% | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|Redfield & Wilton Strategies{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-8-11-june-2024/|title=Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (8-11 June 2024)|website=Redfield & Wilton Strategies|date=June 17, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-10" |June 8–11, 2024 |430 (LV) |– |38% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|40% |6% |– |1% |15%{{#tag:ref | name="Oliver0"|group=lower-alpha}} | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Fox News
| data-sort-value="2024-06-06" |June 1–4, 2024 |1,095 (RV) |± 3.0% |41% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|46% |8% |1% |1% |3% | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D){{#tag:ref|Poll commissioned by AARP|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-06-12" |May 28 – June 4, 2024 |600 (LV) |± 4.0% |37% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|45% |11% |0% |3% |4% | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|Prime Group{{#tag:ref | name=citizens|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-05-22" |May 9–16, 2024 |490 (RV) |– |40% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|44% |11% |3% |2% |– | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Noble Predictive Insights
| data-sort-value="2024-05-21" |May 7–14, 2024 |1,003 (RV) |± 3.1% |36% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|43% |8% |1% |2% |10% | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|Bloomberg/Morning Consult
| data-sort-value="2024-05-22" |May 7–13, 2024 |795 (RV) |± 3.0% |40% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|45% |7% |1% |2% |5% | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)
| data-sort-value="2024-05-23" |May 6–13, 2024 |527 (LV) |± 4.3% |37% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|41% |10% |2% |1% |9% | ||
| style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|The New York Times/Siena College
|rowspan="2"|April 28 – May 9, 2024 |626 (RV) |rowspan="2"|± 4.0% |33% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|42% |10% |0% |2% |13% | ||
| 626 (LV)
|35% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|44% |8% |0% |2% |11% | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|Emerson College
| data-sort-value="2024-04-30" |April 25–29, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |40% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|44% |9% |1% |1% |6% | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|Bloomberg/Morning Consult
| data-sort-value="2024-04-24" |April 8–15, 2024 |801 (RV) |± 3.0% |40% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|46% |7% |2% |0% |5% | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R){{#tag:ref | name=TrumpCampaign|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-04-15" |April 7–11, 2024 |400 (LV) |± 4.9% |37% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|42% |10% |– |2% |9% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|The Wall Street Journal
| data-sort-value="2024-04-02" |March 17–24, 2024 |600 (RV) |± 4.0% |34% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|39% |13% |2% |1% |11%{{#tag:ref|Lars Mapstead (L) with 3%|group=lower-alpha}} | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|Emerson College
| data-sort-value="2024-03-20" |March 12–15, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |38% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|46% |7% |1% |2% |6% | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|Bloomberg/Morning Consult
| data-sort-value="2024-03-26" |March 8–14, 2024 |796 (RV) |± 3.0% |37% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|43% |12% |2% |1% |5% | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|Fox News
| data-sort-value="2024-03-13" |March 7–11, 2024 |1,121 (RV) |± 3.0% |39% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|43% |10% |1% |2% |5% | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|Bloomberg/Morning Consult
| data-sort-value="2024-02-29" |February 12–20, 2024 |798 (RV) |± 3.0% |36% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|45% |9% |1% |1% |8% | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|Emerson College
| data-sort-value="2024-02-22" |February 16–19, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |37% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|43% |8% |1% |1% |10% | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|Bloomberg/Morning Consult{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/01/2401055_Bloomberg_2024-Election-Tracking-Wave-4_Crosstabs_All-States-compressed-1.pdf|title=Bloomberg/Morning Consult}}
| data-sort-value="2024-01-31" |January 16–21, 2024 |800 (RV) |± 3.0% |35% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|43% |10% |1% |1% |10% | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|VCreek/AMG (R){{#tag:ref | name=Americas|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2023-12-19" |December 1–8, 2023 |694 (RV) |– |32% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|40% |9% |3% |2% |14%{{#tag:ref|Joe Manchin with 4%|group=lower-alpha}} | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Bloomberg/Morning Consult{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2023/12/231206-Morning-Consult-Bloomberg-2024-Election-Swing-State-Polling.pdf#page=16|title=Morning Consult/Bloomberg 2024 Election Swing State Polling|website=Morning Consult|date=December 14, 2023}}
| data-sort-value="2023-12-14" |November 27 – December 6, 2023 |796 (RV) |± 3.0% |37% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|40% |10% |1% |1% |11% | ||
| style="text-align:left;"|J.L. Partners{{#tag:ref | name=DailyMail|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2023-11-09" |November 27 – December 1, 2023 |550 (LV) |± 4.2% |39% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|44% |5% |1% |0% |12%{{#tag:ref|"Someone else" with 12%|group=lower-alpha}} |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" | |
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample | name=key|group=lower-alpha}}
! Margin ! class="unsortable" | Joe ! class="unsortable" | Donald ! class="unsortable" | Robert F. ! class="unsortable" | Other / |
| style="background:lightyellow;"
| style="border-right-style:hidden;" | | style="border-right-style:hidden; " data-sort-value="2024-07-21" | July 21, 2024 | colspan="6" | Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | |
| style="text-align:left;"|1983 Labs{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20240708_Swing_1983Labs.pdf|title=New polling in 3 major battlegrounds show growing drumbeat for Biden replacement|website=FiveThirtyEight|date=July 5, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-03" |June 28–30, 2024 |492 (LV) |± 4.4% |33% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|48% |8% |11%{{#tag:ref|Chase Oliver (L) with 2%|group=lower-alpha}} | |
| style="text-align:left;"|P2 Insights{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/presidential/3060935/age-and-economy-top-concerns-of-battleground-state-voters-in-pre-debate-poll/|title=Age and economy top concerns of battleground state voters in pre-debate poll|first=Naomi|last=Lim|website=The Washington Examiner|date=June 27, 2024}}{{#tag:ref|Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates|name=BAF|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-06-26" |June 11–20, 2024 |650 (LV) |± 3.8% |36% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|47% |7% |10% | |
| style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University
|rowspan="2"|May 19–21, 2024 |609 (RV) |rowspan="2"|± 4.0% |37% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|39% |9% |15% | |
| 501 (LV)
|39% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|43% |7% |11% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|P2 Insights{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://buildingamericasfuture.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Trumps-Lead-Expands-in-Battlegrounds-as-Voters-View-Biden-as-Too-Old.pdf|title=Trump's Lead Expands in Battlegrounds as Voters View Biden as Too Old|first=Ryan|last=Tyson|website=Building America's Future|date=June 26, 2024}}{{#tag:ref | name=BAF|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-05-21" |May 13–21, 2024 |650 (LV) |± 3.8% |38% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|41% |9% |12% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Redfield & Wilton Strategies{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-2-4-may-2024/|title=Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (2-4 May 2024)|website=Redfield & Wilton Strategies|date=May 13, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-05-13" |May 2–4, 2024 |625 (LV) |– |42% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|44% |7% |7%{{#tag:ref|Jill Stein (G) with 2%|group=lower-alpha}} | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Data Orbital{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://dataorbital.com/2024/05/az-general-election-poll-democrats-hold-slight-edge/|title=AZ General Election Poll: Democrats Hold Slight Edge - Data Orbital|website=Data Orbital|date=May 7, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-03-25" |April 27–29, 2024 |550 (LV) |± 4.3% |style="color:black;background-color:{{Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|38.8% |38.1% |13.5% |9.6% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Redfield & Wilton Strategies{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-14-17-march-2024/|title=Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (14-17 March 2024)|website=Redfield & Wilton Strategies|date=March 25, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-03-25" |March 14–17, 2024 |516 (LV) |– |41% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|44% |7% |8% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Redfield & Wilton Strategies{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-28-30-december-2023/|title=Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (28-30 December 2023)|website=Redfield & Wilton Strategies|date=January 8, 2024}}
| data-sort-value="2024-01-08" |December 28–30, 2023 |808 (LV) |– |35% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|41% |10% |14% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|VCreek/AMG (R){{#tag:ref | name=Americas|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2023-12-19" |December 1–8, 2023 |694 (RV) |– |35% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|40% |16% |9% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Redfield & Wilton Strategies{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-27-29-november-2023/|title=Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (27-29 November 2023)|website=Redfield & Wilton Strategies|date=December 5, 2023}}
| data-sort-value="2023-12-05" |November 27–29, 2023 |1,103 (LV) |– |33% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|40% |10% |17% | |
| style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|The New York Times/Siena College{{#invoke:cite|news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/07/us/politics/rfk-jr-trump-biden-poll.html|title=What's Behind Kennedy's Poll Numbers? Voters Dread a Trump-Biden Rematch.|first1=Reid J.|last1=Epstein|first2=Ruth|last2=Igielnik|first3=Camille|last3=Baker|work=The New York Times |date=November 7, 2023|via=NYTimes.com}}
|rowspan="2"|October 22 – November 3, 2023 |603 (RV) |rowspan="2"|± 4.4% |33% |33% |26% |8% | |
| 603 (LV)
|34% |34% |24% |8% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Redfield & Wilton Strategies
| data-sort-value="2023-10-15" |October 7–9, 2023 |627 (LV) |– |37% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|42% |8% |12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" | |
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample | name=key|group=lower-alpha}}
! Margin ! class="unsortable" | Joe ! class="unsortable" | Donald ! class="unsortable" | Robert ! class="unsortable" | Cornel ! class="unsortable" | Other / |
| style="background:lightyellow;"
| style="border-right-style:hidden;" | | style="border-right-style:hidden; " data-sort-value="2024-07-21" | July 21, 2024 | colspan="7" | Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | |
| style="text-align:left;"|North Star Opinion Research{{#tag:ref | name=LAW|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-03-18" |March 14–17, 2024 |600 (LV) |± 4.0% |33% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|37% |18% |2% |10% |
| style="text-align:left;"|J.L. Partners{{#tag:ref | name=DailyMail|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2023-12-01" |November 27 – December 1, 2023 |550 (LV) |± 4.4% |34% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|39% |4% |1% |22% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Bloomberg/Morning Consult{{#invoke:cite|web|url=https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2023/11/231105-Morning-Consult-Bloomberg-2024-Election-Survey-All-States-Toplines.pdf#page=17|title=Morning Consult/Bloomberg 2024 Election Survey All States Toplines|website=Morning Consult|date=November 9, 2023}}
| data-sort-value="2023-11-09" |October 30 – November 7, 2023 |800 (RV) |± 3.0% |36% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|40% |11% |1% |12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" | |
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample | name=key|group=lower-alpha}}
! Margin ! class="unsortable" | Joe ! class="unsortable" | Donald ! class="unsortable" | Cornel ! class="unsortable" | Other / |
| style="background:lightyellow;"
| style="border-right-style:hidden;" | | style="border-right-style:hidden; " data-sort-value="2024-07-21" | July 21, 2024 | colspan="6" | Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Emerson College
| data-sort-value="2023-08-08"|August 2–4, 2023 |1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% |41% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|42% |4% |13% |
{{Hidden end}}
{{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#CFF|title=Hypothetical polling with other candidates|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" | |
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample | name=key|group=lower-alpha}}
! Margin ! class="unsortable" | Joe ! class="unsortable" | Robert F. ! class="unsortable" | Other / |
| style="text-align:left;"|John Zogby Strategies{{#tag:ref | name=Kennedy|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-05-01" |April 13–21, 2024 |630 (LV) |– |34% |style="background-color:{{party color|Independent}}"|52% |14% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" | |
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample | name=key|group=lower-alpha}}
! Margin ! class="unsortable" | Robert F. ! class="unsortable" | Donald ! class="unsortable" | Other / |
| style="text-align:left;"|John Zogby Strategies{{#tag:ref | name=Kennedy|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-05-01" |April 13–21, 2024 |630 (LV) |– |39% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|46% |15% |
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" | |
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample | name=key|group=lower-alpha}}
! Margin ! class="unsortable" | Gavin ! class="unsortable" | Donald ! class="unsortable" | Other / |
| style="text-align:left;"|Public Policy Polling (D){{#tag:ref | name=PAF|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 10–11, 2024 |596 (RV) |– |44% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|51% |5% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Emerson College
| data-sort-value="2024-02-22" |February 16–19, 2024 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.0% |34% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|47% |19% |
Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" | |
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample | name=key|group=lower-alpha}}
! Margin ! class="unsortable" | Gretchen ! class="unsortable" | Donald ! class="unsortable" | Other / |
| style="text-align:left;"|Public Policy Polling (D){{#tag:ref | name=PAF|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 10–11, 2024 |596 (RV) |– |45% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|49% |6% |
JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" | |
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample | name=key|group=lower-alpha}}
! Margin ! class="unsortable" | JB ! class="unsortable" | Donald ! class="unsortable" | Other / |
| style="text-align:left;"|Public Policy Polling (D){{#tag:ref | name=PAF|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 10–11, 2024 |596 (RV) |– |41% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|47% |12% |
Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" | |
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample | name=key|group=lower-alpha}}
! Margin ! class="unsortable" | Josh ! class="unsortable" | Donald ! class="unsortable" | Other / |
| style="text-align:left;"|Public Policy Polling (D){{#tag:ref | name=PAF|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 10–11, 2024 |596 (RV) |– |43% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|46% |11% |
Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" | |
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample | name=key|group=lower-alpha}}
! Margin ! class="unsortable" | Pete ! class="unsortable" | Donald ! class="unsortable" | Other / |
| style="text-align:left;"|Public Policy Polling (D){{#tag:ref | name=PAF|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 10–11, 2024 |596 (RV) |– |46% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|49% |5% |
Mark Kelly vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" | |
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample | name=key|group=lower-alpha}}
! Margin ! class="unsortable" | Mark ! class="unsortable" | Donald ! class="unsortable" | Robert F. ! class="unsortable" | Jill ! class="unsortable" | Other / |
| style="text-align:left;"|Public Policy Polling (D){{#tag:ref | name=clean|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-21" |July 17–20, 2024 |738 (RV) |± 3.6% |43% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|45% |6% |1% |5% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" | |
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample | name=key|group=lower-alpha}}
! Margin ! class="unsortable" | Joe ! class="unsortable" | Nikki ! class="unsortable" | Other / |
| style="text-align:left;"|VCreek/AMG (R){{#tag:ref | name=Americas|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2023-12-19" |December 1–8, 2023 |694 (RV) |– |30% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|37% |33% |
| style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|The New York Times/Siena College{{#invoke:cite|news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/07/us/elections/times-siena-battlegrounds-likely-electorate.html|title=Likely Electorate Cross-Tabs: October 2023 Times/Siena Poll of the 2024 Battlegrounds|work=The New York Times |date=November 5, 2023|via=NYTimes.com}}
|rowspan="2"|October 22 – November 3, 2023 |603 (RV) |rowspan="2"|± 4.4% |38% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|45% |17% | |
| 603 (LV)
|37% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|46% |17% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" | |
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample | name=key|group=lower-alpha}}
! Margin ! class="unsortable" | Joe ! class="unsortable" | Ron ! class="unsortable" | Other / |
| style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|The New York Times/Siena College
|rowspan="2"|October 22 – November 3, 2023 |603 (RV) |rowspan="2"|± 4.4% |41% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|46% |13% | |
| 603 (LV)
|42% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|46% |12% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Noble Predictive Insights
| data-sort-value="2023-11-14" |October 25 – 31, 2023 |1,010 (RV) |± 3.1% |37% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|40% |23% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Public Opinion Strategies (R){{#tag:ref | name=CAP|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2023-07-24" |July 22–24, 2023 |500 (RV) |± 4.4% |39% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|46% |12% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Public Opinion Strategies (R){{#tag:ref | name=CAP|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2023-06-19" |June 17–19, 2023 |500 (RV) |± 4.4% |40% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|46% |12% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Public Opinion Strategies (R){{#tag:ref | name=CAP|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2023-05-17" |May 15–17, 2023 |500 (RV) |± 4.4% |43% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|47% |10% |
| style="text-align:left;"|Public Opinion Strategies (R){{#tag:ref | name=CAP|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2023-04-13" |April 11–13, 2023 |500 (RV) |± 4.4% |42% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|48% |10% |
| style="text-align:left;"|OH Predictive Insights
| data-sort-value="2023-02-09" |January 31 – February 9, 2023 |1,000 (RV) |± 3.1% |35% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|36% |29% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Blueprint Polling (D)
| data-sort-value="2023-01-08" |January 5–8, 2023 |618 (V) |± 3.9% |37% |style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|43% |20% | |
| style="text-align:left;"|Echelon Insights{{#tag:ref | name=NC|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2022-09-07" |August 31 – September 7, 2022 |773 (LV) |± 4.5% |43% |43% |14% |
Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence
| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px" | |
| valign=bottom
! Poll source ! Date(s) ! Sample | name=key|group=lower-alpha}}
! Margin ! class="unsortable" | Joe ! class="unsortable" | Mike ! class="unsortable" | Other / |
| style="text-align:left;"|Public Opinion Strategies (R){{#tag:ref | name=CAP|group=upper-alpha}}
| data-sort-value="2023-05-17" |May 15–17, 2023 |500 (RV) |± 4.4% |style="color:black;background-color:{{Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|45% |43% |12% |
{{Hidden end}}
= Results =
File:AZ 2024 Presidential Results by State Legislative District.svg districts results
{{col-begin}}
{{col-2}}
Trump
{{legend|#F2B3BE|40–50%}}
{{legend|#E27F90|50–60%}}
{{legend|#CC2F4A|60–70%}}
{{legend|#D40000|70–80%}}
{{col-2}}
Harris
{{legend|#86B6F2|50–60%}}
{{legend|#4389E3|60–70%}}
{{legend|#1666CB|70–80%}}
{{col-end}}
]]
{{Election box begin |title=2024 United States presidential election in Arizona{{#invoke:cite|web| title=2024 General Election Signed Canvass | website=AZSOS | url=http://apps.azsos.gov/election/2024/ge/canvass/20241105_GeneralCanvass_Signed.pdf | access-date=2024-11-30}}}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link|party=Republican Party (United States)|candidate={{ubl|Donald Trump|JD Vance}}|votes=1,770,242|percentage=52.22%|change={{increase}} 3.16%}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Democratic Party (United States)|candidate={{ubl|Kamala Harris|Tim Walz}}|votes=1,582,860|percentage=46.69%|change={{decrease}} 2.67%}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Green Party of the United States|candidate={{ubl|Jill Stein|Butch Ware}}|votes=18,319|percentage=0.54%|change={{increase}} 0.49%}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Libertarian Party (United States)|candidate={{ubl|Chase Oliver|Mike ter Maat}}|votes=17,898|percentage=0.53%|change={{decrease}} 0.99%}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Party for Socialism and Liberation|candidate=Claudia De la Cruz (write-in)
Karina Garcia (write-in)|votes=689|percentage=0.02%|change={{increase}} 0.01%}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Independent (politician)|candidate=Shiva Ayyadurai (write-in)
Crystal Ellis (write-in)|votes=77|percentage=0.00%|change=N/A}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Constitution Party (United States)|candidate=Joel Skousen{{efn|name=constitution|The Constitution Party did not have ballot access in Arizona. Joel Skousen and Rik Combs registered as write-in candidates representing the party instead of the national ticket led by Randall Terry and Stephen Broden.}} (write-in)
Rik Combs (write-in)|votes=53|percentage=0.00%|change={{steady}}}}
{{Election box write-in with party link|votes=23|percentage=0.00%|change=N/A}}
{{Election box total|votes=3,390,161|percentage=100.00%|change=N/A}}
{{Election box end}}
== By county ==
| class="wikitable sortable" width="60%"
! rowspan="2" |County{{Cite web|url=https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2024&fips=4&f=1&off=0&elect=0|title=2024 Presidential General Election Results - Arizona}} ! colspan="2" |Donald Trump ! colspan="2" |Kamala Harris ! colspan="2" |Various candidates ! colspan="2" |Margin ! rowspan="2" |Total | ||||||||
| data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" |#
! data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" |% ! data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" |# ! data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" |% ! data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" |# ! data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" |% ! data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" |# ! data-sort-type="number" style="text-align:center;" |% | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| style="text-align:center;"
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|Apache |{{party shading/Republican}}|12,795 |{{party shading/Republican}}|39.86% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|18,872 |{{party shading/Democratic}}|58.79% |{{party shading/Others}}|434 |{{party shading/Others}}|1.35% |{{party shading/Democratic}}| -6,077 |{{party shading/Democratic}}| -18.93% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|32,101 | ||||||||
| style="text-align:center;"
|{{party shading/Republican}}|Cochise |{{party shading/Republican}}|35,936 |{{party shading/Republican}}|60.77% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|22,296 |{{party shading/Democratic}}|37.70% |{{party shading/Others}}|903 |{{party shading/Others}}|1.53% |{{party shading/Republican}}|13,640 |{{party shading/Republican}}|23.07% |{{party shading/Republican}}|59,135 | ||||||||
| style="text-align:center;"
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|Coconino |{{party shading/Republican}}|27,576 |{{party shading/Republican}}|39.18% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|41,504 |{{party shading/Democratic}}|58.98% |{{party shading/Others}}|1,294 |{{party shading/Others}}|1.84% |{{party shading/Democratic}}| -13,928 |{{party shading/Democratic}}| -19.80% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|70,374 | ||||||||
| style="text-align:center;"
|{{party shading/Republican}}|Gila |{{party shading/Republican}}|18,901 |{{party shading/Republican}}|68.24% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|8,504 |{{party shading/Democratic}}|30.70% |{{party shading/Others}}|293 |{{party shading/Others}}|1.06% |{{party shading/Republican}}|10,397 |{{party shading/Republican}}|37.54% |{{party shading/Republican}}|27,698 | ||||||||
| style="text-align:center;"
|{{party shading/Republican}}|Graham |{{party shading/Republican}}|11,177 |{{party shading/Republican}}|73.46% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|3,867 |{{party shading/Democratic}}|25.42% |{{party shading/Others}}|171 |{{party shading/Others}}|1.12% |{{party shading/Republican}}|7,310 |{{party shading/Republican}}|48.04% |{{party shading/Republican}}|15,215 | ||||||||
| style="text-align:center;"
|{{party shading/Republican}}|Greenlee |{{party shading/Republican}}|2,308 |{{party shading/Republican}}|69.60% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|954 |{{party shading/Democratic}}|28.77% |{{party shading/Others}}|54 |{{party shading/Others}}|1.63% |{{party shading/Republican}}|1,354 |{{party shading/Republican}}|40.83% |{{party shading/Republican}}|3,316 | ||||||||
| style="text-align:center;"
|{{party shading/Republican}}|La Paz |{{party shading/Republican}}|5,470 |{{party shading/Republican}}|71.57% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|2,101 |{{party shading/Democratic}}|27.49% |{{party shading/Others}}|72 |{{party shading/Others}}|0.94% |{{party shading/Republican}}|3,369 |{{party shading/Republican}}|44.08% |{{party shading/Republican}}|7,643 | ||||||||
| style="text-align:center;"
|{{party shading/Republican}}|Maricopa |{{party shading/Republican}}|1,051,531 |{{party shading/Republican}}|51.01% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|980,016 |{{party shading/Democratic}}|47.54% |{{party shading/Others}}|30,027 |{{party shading/Others}}|1.46% |{{party shading/Republican}}|71,515 |{{party shading/Republican}}|3.47% |{{party shading/Republican}}|2,061,574 | ||||||||
| style="text-align:center;"
|{{party shading/Republican}}|Mohave |{{party shading/Republican}}|85,683 |{{party shading/Republican}}|77.41% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|24,081 |{{party shading/Democratic}}|21.75% |{{party shading/Others}}|929 |{{party shading/Others}}|0.84% |{{party shading/Republican}}|61,602 |{{party shading/Republican}}|55.66% |{{party shading/Republican}}|110,693 | ||||||||
| style="text-align:center;"
|{{party shading/Republican}}|Navajo |{{party shading/Republican}}|29,480 |{{party shading/Republican}}|57.98% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|20,754 |{{party shading/Democratic}}|40.82% |{{party shading/Others}}|613 |{{party shading/Others}}|1.21% |{{party shading/Republican}}|8,726 |{{party shading/Republican}}|17.16% |{{party shading/Republican}}|50,847 | ||||||||
| style="text-align:center;"
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|Pima |{{party shading/Republican}}|214,669 |{{party shading/Republican}}|41.68% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|292,450 |{{party shading/Democratic}}|56.78% |{{party shading/Others}}|7,908 |{{party shading/Others}}|1.54% |{{party shading/Democratic}}| -77,781 |{{party shading/Democratic}}| -15.10% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|515,027 | ||||||||
| style="text-align:center;"
|{{party shading/Republican}}|Pinal |{{party shading/Republican}}|126,926 |{{party shading/Republican}}|60.39% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|80,656 |{{party shading/Democratic}}|38.38% |{{party shading/Others}}|2,591 |{{party shading/Others}}|1.23% |{{party shading/Republican}}|46,270 |{{party shading/Republican}}|22.01% |{{party shading/Republican}}|210,173 | ||||||||
| style="text-align:center;"
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|Santa Cruz |{{party shading/Republican}}|7,699 |{{party shading/Republican}}|40.17% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|11,265 |{{party shading/Democratic}}|58.77% |{{party shading/Others}}|203 |{{party shading/Others}}|1.06% |{{party shading/Democratic}}| -3,566 |{{party shading/Democratic}}| -18.60% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|19,167 | ||||||||
| style="text-align:center;"
|{{party shading/Republican}}|Yavapai |{{party shading/Republican}}|99,346 |{{party shading/Republican}}|66.48% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|48,717 |{{party shading/Democratic}}|32.60% |{{party shading/Others}}|1,365 |{{party shading/Others}}|0.91% |{{party shading/Republican}}|50,629 |{{party shading/Republican}}|33.88% |{{party shading/Republican}}|149,428 | ||||||||
| style="text-align:center;"
|{{party shading/Republican}}|Yuma |{{party shading/Republican}}|40,745 |{{party shading/Republican}}|59.63% |{{party shading/Democratic}}|26,823 |{{party shading/Democratic}}|39.25% |{{party shading/Others}}|767 |{{party shading/Others}}|1.12% |{{party shading/Republican}}|13,922 |{{party shading/Republican}}|20.38% |{{party shading/Republican}}|68,335 | ||||||||
| Totals
!1,770,242 | 52.05% | 1,582,860 | 46.54% | 47,624 | 1.40% | 187,382 | 5.51% | 3,400,726 |
== County that flipped from Democratic to Republican ==
{{align|right|{{Switcher| 250px|Swing by county
{{collapsible list| title = Legend|
{{legend|#ffd5d5|Republican — +0-2.5%}}|
{{legend|#ffaaaa|Republican — +2.5-5%}}|
{{legend|#ff8080|Republican — +5-7.5%}}|
{{legend|#ff5555|Republican — +7.5-10%}}|
{{legend|#ff2a2a|Republican — +10-12.5%}}|
{{legend|#ff0000|Republican — +12.5-15%}}|
{{legend|#d40000|Republican — +>15%}}}}|
250px|County flips
{{collapsible list| title = Legend| {{col-begin}}
{{col-2}}
Democratic
{{legend|#92c5de|Hold}}
{{col-2}}
Republican
{{legend|#f48882|Hold}}
{{legend|#ca0120|Gain from Democratic}}
{{col-end}}}}}}}}
==By congressional district==
Trump won six of nine congressional districts.{{cite web | url=https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::4ee8ecf2-14b7-4a8d-99bc-82fa633a9305 | title=Dra 2020 }}
| class="wikitable sortable"
! District ! Harris ! Trump ! Representative elected |
| align=center
! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Arizona|1|1st}} | 48% | 51% | {{party shading/Republican}}|David Schweikert |
| align=center
! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Arizona|2|2nd}} | 42% | 57% | {{party shading/Republican}}|Eli Crane |
| align=center
! rowspan=2 {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Arizona|3|3rd}} | rowspan=2|69% | rowspan=2|29% | {{party shading/Democratic}}|Ruben Gallego (118th Congress) |
| align=center
| {{party shading/Democratic}}|Yassamin Ansari (119th Congress) |
| align=center
! {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Arizona|4|4th}} | 53% | 46% | {{party shading/Democratic}}|Greg Stanton |
| align=center
! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Arizona|5|5th}} | 39% | 59% | {{party shading/Republican}}|Andy Biggs |
| align=center
! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Arizona|6|6th}} | 49% | 50% | {{party shading/Republican}}|Juan Ciscomani |
| align=center
! {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Arizona|7|7th}} | 60% | 38% | {{party shading/Democratic}}|Raúl Grijalva |
| align=center
! rowspan=2 {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Arizona|8|8th}} | rowspan=2|41% | rowspan=2|58% | {{party shading/Republican}}|Debbie Lesko (118th Congress) |
| align=center
| {{party shading/Republican}}|Abraham Hamadeh (119th Congress) |
| align=center
! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Arizona|9|9th}} | 34% | 65% | {{party shading/Republican}}|Paul Gosar |
| align=center |
Analysis
Trump received more than 1.77 million votes, setting a new record for votes cast for any candidate in the history of statewide elections in Arizona. Trump reclaimed the largest county in the state, Maricopa, although it once again voted to the left of the state, a trend that started in 2016 and foreshadowed his 2020 loss of the state. Harris did not get over 60% of the vote in a single county. Arizona was one of three swing states, along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Harris received fewer raw votes than Biden in 2020. In addition, of the seven swing states, she suffered her worst raw vote drop-off compared to Biden in Arizona, winning 90,000 fewer votes. Notably, Arizona was the only state in which the Trump campaign turned over most campaign functions to well-funded outside groups such as Turning Point Action (which is headquartered in Phoenix), who focused exclusively on turning out low-propensity Republicans instead of winning over Democrats, as Republicans represent a majority of Arizona's party registration. The Harris campaign, on the other hand, handled her campaigning in-house.{{Cite magazine |last=Hitchens |first=Antonia |date=2024-09-09 |title=Inside the Trump Campaign's Plan to Win Arizona |url=https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/inside-the-trump-campaigns-plan-to-win-arizona |access-date=2025-01-27 |magazine=The New Yorker |language=en-US |issn=0028-792X}}
Trump's gains in Arizona were mostly powered by suburban voters returning to the Republican Party and large gains among Hispanic Americans. In Maricopa County, Arizona's largest and the only county to flip, the vast majority of precincts shifted to the right, with Trump's strongest gains coming from traditionally conservative East Valley cities that had been drifting left as well as Hispanic-majority neighborhoods in south and east Phoenix.{{Cite web |last=Murray |first=Stephanie |title=Here's what happened in Arizona's 2024 presidential election |url=https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/23/arizona-presidential-election-2024-explained/76504307007/ |access-date=2025-01-27 |website=The Arizona Republic |language=en-US}} Trump also gained in Arizona's Hispanic-majority border counties, gaining over 11% in Yuma County, which had been shifting heavily since Trump first won it in 2016. He also made gains in traditionally Democratic counties that remained in the Democratic column, such as Santa Cruz County, which trended over 9% Republican from 2020 - Trump's second largest improvement in the state. Illegal immigration was a major concern among border counties that shifted towards Trump.{{Cite web |last=Murray |first=Stephanie |date=November 12, 2024 |title=Donald Trump made gains in all four of Arizona's border counties. Here's what to know |url=https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/12/donald-trump-made-gains-in-yuma-santa-cruz-cochise-and-pima-counties/76209590007/ |access-date=January 26, 2025 |website=The Arizona Republic}}
See also
Notes
{{Notelist|refs=Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear}}
Partisan clients
{{Notelist-ua}}
References
{{Reflist|30em}}
{{2024 United States elections}}
{{State results of the 2024 U.S. presidential election}}