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2024 United States presidential election in Montana

{{Short description|none}}

{{Use mdy dates|date=September 2023}}

{{main|2024 United States presidential election}}

{{row hover highlight}}

{{Infobox election

| election_name = 2024 United States presidential election in Montana

| country = Montana

| type = Presidential

| college_voted = yes

| previous_election = 2020 United States presidential election in Montana

| previous_year = 2020

| election_date = November 5, 2024

| next_election = 2028 United States presidential election in Montana

| next_year = 2028

| turnout = 75.38% (of registered voters){{Cite web |title=Montana Voter Turnout |url=https://electionresults.mt.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY |access-date=2024-12-01 |website=Montana SoS |language=en}} {{decrease}}

| last_update = November 7, 2024 7:42 AM

| map_image = {{Switcher | 350px | County results | 350px | Congressional district results

| 350px

| Precinct results

}}

| map_size = 350px

| map_caption = {{col-begin}}

{{col-2}}

Trump

{{legend|#F2B3BE|40–50%}}

{{legend|#E27F90|50–60%}}

{{legend|#CC2F4A|60–70%}}

{{legend|#D40000|70–80%}}

{{legend|#AA0000|80–90%}}

{{legend|#800000|90–100%}}

{{col-2}}

Harris

{{legend|#B9D7FF|40–50%}}

{{legend|#86B6F2|50–60%}}

{{legend|#4389E3|60–70%}}

{{legend|#1666CB|70–80%}}

{{legend|#0645B4|80–90%}}

{{legend|#002B84|90–100%}}

{{col-3}}

Tie/No Data

{{legend|#D4C4DC}}

{{legend|#808080}}

{{col-end}}

| title = President

| before_election = Joe Biden

| before_party = Democratic Party (United States)

| after_election = Donald Trump

| after_party = Republican Party (United States)

| image2 = Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg

| nominee2 = Kamala Harris

| party2 = Democratic Party (United States)

| home_state2 = California

| running_mate2 = Tim Walz

| electoral_vote2 = 0

| popular_vote2 = 231,906

| percentage2 = 38.46%

| image1 = TrumpPortrait (3x4a).jpg

| nominee1 = Donald Trump

| party1 = Republican Party (United States)

| home_state1 = Florida

| running_mate1 = JD Vance

| electoral_vote1 = 4

| popular_vote1 = 352,079

| percentage1 = 58.39%

| image_size = 200x200px

}}

{{Elections in Montana sidebar}}

The 2024 United States presidential election in Montana took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Montana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.{{#invoke:cite web||last1=Wang |first1=Hansi |last2=Jin |first2=Connie |last3=Levitt |first3=Zach |title=Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats |url=https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats |publisher=NPR |access-date=August 20, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210819123145/https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats |archive-date=August 19, 2021 |date=April 26, 2021 |url-status=live}}

Trump once again won Montana by 19.93%, an increase from his 16.37% margin of victory in 2020, but slightly under his 20.42% margin from 2016. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Montana a safe red state.

Primary elections

= Democratic primary =

{{main|2024 Montana Democratic presidential primary}}

The Montana Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

{{2024MTDem}}

= Republican primary =

{{main|2024 Montana Republican presidential primary}}

The Montana Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

{{2024MTRep}}

= Green primary =

The Montana Green primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia.

class="wikitable sortable tpl-blanktable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;"

|+ Montana Green primary, June 4, 2024

Candidate

! Votes

! Percentage

! Delegates

{{Party shading/Green}}

| style="text-align:left;" | No Preference

| 495

| 100.00%

| 4

style="background:#eee;"

!Total:

!495

!100.00%

!4

colspan="6" style="text-align:left;" | Source:{{#invoke:cite weburl=https://electionresults.mt.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY|title=2024 Primary Election - June 4, 2024|access-date=June 5, 2024}}

General election

=Candidates=

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Montana:{{#invoke:cite web||title=The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State |url=https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G24/President-BallotAccessByState.phtml |access-date=2024-09-13 |website=www.thegreenpapers.com}}

=Predictions=

class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"

!Source

!Ranking

!As of

align=left | Cook Political Report{{#invoke:cite weburl=https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings |title=2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings |date=December 19, 2023 |website=cookpolitical.com |publisher=Cook Political Report |access-date=January 11, 2024}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

|December 19, 2023

align=left | Inside Elections{{#invoke:cite weburl=https://insideelections.com/ratings/president |title=Presidential Ratings |date=April 26, 2023 |website=insideelections.com |publisher=Inside Elections |access-date=January 11, 2024}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

|April 26, 2023

align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball{{#invoke:cite weburl=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-president/ |title=2024 Electoral College ratings |date=June 29, 2023 |website=centerforpolitics.org |publisher=University of Virginia Center for Politics |access-date=January 11, 2024}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

|June 29, 2023

align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill{{#invoke:cite weburl=https://elections2024.thehill.com/predictions/president |title=2024 presidential predictions |date=December 14, 2023 |website=elections2024.thehill.com/ |publisher=The Hill |access-date=January 11, 2024}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

|May 30, 2023

align=left | CNalysis{{#invoke:cite weburl=https://projects.cnalysis.com/23-24/president |title=2024 Presidential Forecast |date=December 30, 2023 |website=projects.cnalysis.com/ |publisher=CNalysis |access-date=January 11, 2024}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

|December 30, 2023

align=left | CNN{{#invoke:cite weburl=https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/electoral-college-map?game-id=2024-PG-CNN-ratings&game-view=map |title=Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270 |publisher=CNN |access-date=January 14, 2024}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

|January 14, 2024

align=left | The Economist{{#invoke:cite newstitle=Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model |url=https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president |newspaper=The Economist |access-date=June 12, 2024 |language=en}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

|June 12, 2024

align="left" |538{{#invoke:cite weblast1=Morris |first1=G. Elliott |title=2024 Election Forecast |url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ |website=FiveThirtyEight |access-date=October 1, 2024 |language=en |date=June 11, 2024}}

| {{USRaceRating|Solid|R}}

| September 23, 2024

align="left" |RCP{{#invoke:cite webtitle=2024 RCP Electoral College Map |url=https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/toss-up/electoral-college |website=RealClearPolitics |access-date=June 26, 2024 |language=en |date=June 26, 2024}}

| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}}

| June 26, 2024

align="left" | NBC News{{#invoke:cite webtitle=Presidential Election Preview 2024 |url=https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/president-electoral-college-battleground-states |website= |publisher=NBC News}}

| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}}

|October 6, 2024

=Polling=

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

{{mw-datatable}}

class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"
valign=bottom

! Poll source

! Date(s)
administered

! Sample
size{{#tag:ref

name=key|group=lower-alpha}}

! Margin
of error

! class="unsortable" | Donald
Trump
{{nobold|Republican}}

! class="unsortable" | Kamala
Harris
{{nobold|Democratic}}

! class="unsortable" | Other /
Undecided

style="text-align:left;"|AtlasIntel{{#invoke:cite weburl=https://cdn.atlasintel.org/616d82d3-e782-4d6e-b690-9eed1523fe75.pdf|title=Atlas Poll - US Key States - November 4, 2024|website=AtlasIntel|date=November 4, 2024}}

| data-sort-value="2024-11-04" |November 3–4, 2024

|752 (LV)

|± 4.0%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |59%

|39%

|2%

style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|Emerson College{{#invoke:cite webtitle=October 2024 Montana Poll: Sheehy 50%, Tester 46% |url=https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2024-montana-poll-sheehy-50-tester-46/ |publisher=Emerson College |access-date=27 October 2024 |date=27 October 2024}}{{#tag:ref|Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group|name=NexstarMT|group=upper-alpha}}

|rowspan="2"|October 23–25, 2024

|rowspan="2"|1,000 (LV)

|rowspan="2"|± 3.0%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|58%

|39%

|3%{{#tag:ref|"Someone else" with 2%|name="SE2"|group=lower-alpha}}

style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|59%{{#tag:refname="lean"|group=lower-alpha}}

|40%

|1%

style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|New York Times/Siena College{{#invoke:cite newsurl=https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/10/us/politics/senate-polls-montana-florida-texas.html|title=Republicans Appear Poised to Take Control of Senate, New Poll Shows|first=Shane|last=Goldmacher|website=The New York Times |date=October 10, 2024}}

|rowspan="2"|October 5–8, 2024

|656 (RV)

|rowspan="2"|± 4.0%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|57%

|39%

|4%

656 (LV)

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|57%

|40%

|3%

style="text-align:left;"|RMG Research{{#invoke:cite weburl=https://napolitaninstitute.org/2024/09/23/montana-trump-59-harris-38/|title=Montana: Trump 59% Harris 38%|website=Napolitan Institute|date=September 23, 2024}}{{#tag:refname=NI|group=upper-alpha}}

| data-sort-value="2024-09-19" |September 12–19, 2024

|491 (LV)

|± 4.4%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|59%

|38%

|3%{{#tag:ref|"Some other candidate" with 1%|group=lower-alpha}}

style="text-align:left|Fabrizio Ward (R)/
David Binder Research (D){{#invoke:cite journal		url=https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/montana-older-voter-survey-2024/|title=Sheehy Leads Tester by 16 Points in Montana Senate Race|first=Kate|last=Bridges|website=AARP|date=September 5, 2024|doi=10.26419/res.00813.034 }}{{#tag:ref|Poll commissioned by AARP|name=AARP|group=upper-alpha}}

|August 25–29, 2024

|600 (LV)

|± 4.0%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|56%

|41%

|3%

style="background:lightyellow;"

| style="border-right-style:hidden;" |

| style="border-right-style:hidden; " data-sort-value="2024-08-21" | August 23, 2024

| colspan="5" | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.

style="background:lightyellow;"

| style="border-right-style:hidden;" |

| style="border-right-style:hidden; " data-sort-value="2024-08-22" | August 22, 2024

| colspan="5" | Democratic National Convention concludes

style="text-align:left;"|Rasmussen Reports (R){{#invoke:cite weburl=https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/partner_surveys/toplines_2_nusa_august_2024_montana|title=Toplines - NUSA August 2024 Montana|website=Rasmussen Reports|date=August 30, 2024}}{{#tag:ref|Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA|name=NUSA|group=upper-alpha}}

| data-sort-value="2024-08-20" |August 13–20, 2024

|835 (LV)

|± 3.0%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|58%

|35%

|7%

style="background:lightyellow;"

| style="border-right-style:hidden;" |

| style="border-right-style:hidden; " data-sort-value="2024-08-19" | August 19, 2024

| colspan="5" | Democratic National Convention begins

style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|Emerson College{{#invoke:cite weburl=https://emersoncollegepolling.com/montana-2024-poll-trump-55-harris-40/|title=Montana 2024 Poll: Trump 55%, Harris 40%|website=Emerson College Polling|date=August 8, 2024}}

|rowspan="2"|August 5–6, 2024

|rowspan="2"|1,000 (RV)

|rowspan="2"| 3.0%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|55%

|40%

|5%

style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|58%{{#tag:ref|With voters who lean towards a given candidate|name="lean"|group=lower-alpha}}

|43%

|–

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

{{mw-datatable}}

class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"
valign=bottom

! Poll source

! Date(s)
administered

! Sample
size{{#tag:ref

name=key|group=lower-alpha}}

! Margin
of error

! class="unsortable" | Donald
Trump
{{nobold|Republican}}

! class="unsortable" | Kamala
Harris
{{nobold|Democratic}}

! class="unsortable" | Cornel
West
{{nobold|Independent}}

! class="unsortable" | Jill
Stein
{{nobold|Green}}

! class="unsortable" | Chase
Oliver
{{nobold|Libertarian}}

! class="unsortable" | Other /
Undecided

style="text-align:left;"|AtlasIntel{{#invoke:cite weburl=https://cdn.atlasintel.org/616d82d3-e782-4d6e-b690-9eed1523fe75.pdf|title=Atlas Poll - US Key States - November 4, 2024|website=AtlasIntel|date=November 4, 2024}}

| data-sort-value="2024-11-04" |November 3–4, 2024

|752 (LV)

|± 4.0%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}" |57%

|37%

|–

|2%

|0%

|4%{{#tag:ref|"Other" with 3%|name="Other3"|group=lower-alpha}}

style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|New York Times/Siena College

|rowspan="2"|October 5–8, 2024

|656 (RV)

|rowspan="2"|± 4.0%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|56%

|38%

|–

|0%

|0%

|6%

656 (LV)

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|56%

|39%

|–

|0%

|0%

|5%

style="text-align:left;"|Remington Research Group (R){{#invoke:cite weburl=https://www.afpm.org/sites/default/files/issue_resources/Sept24_RemingtonStatePollsEVMandate.pdf|title= Polling data on Biden-Harris gas car ban and EV mandate policies|website=American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers |date=October 1, 2024}}{{#tag:ref|Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates|name=AFPM|group=upper-alpha}}

| data-sort-value="2024-09-20" |September 16–20, 2024

|800 (LV)

|± 3.5%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|56%

|39%

|–

|2%

|–

|3%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

{{mw-datatable}}

class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"
valign=bottom

! Poll source

! Date(s)
administered

! Sample
size{{#tag:ref

name=key|group=lower-alpha}}

! Margin
of error

! class="unsortable" | Donald
Trump
{{nobold|Republican}}

! class="unsortable" | Kamala
Harris
{{nobold|Democratic}}

! class="unsortable" | Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
{{nobold|Independent}}

! class="unsortable" | Cornel
West
{{nobold|Independent}}

! class="unsortable" | Jill
Stein
{{nobold|Green}}

! class="unsortable" | Chase
Oliver
{{nobold|Libertarian}}

! class="unsortable" | Other /
Undecided

style="text-align:left;"|Montana State University Billings{{#invoke:cite weburl=https://www.msubillings.edu/class/nams/polls/2024-mountain-states-poll-report.pdf|title=Mountain States Poll - October 2024|website=Montana State University Billings|date=October 30, 2024}}

| data-sort-value="2024-10-16" |September 30 – October 16, 2024

|760 (A)

|± 3.6%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|52%

|34%

|3%

|–

|1%

|2%

|8%

style="text-align:left;"|Rasmussen Reports (R){{#tag:refname=NUSA|group=upper-alpha}}

| data-sort-value="2024-08-20" |August 13–20, 2024

|835 (LV)

|± 3.0%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|58%

|31%

|7%

|0%

|0%

|0%

|4%

style="text-align:left;"|American Pulse Research & Polling{{#invoke:cite weburl=https://www.kulr8.com/elections/poll-shows-strong-montana-support-for-trump-over-harris/article_48d606a2-f058-52e3-af3e-03acf01629e4.html|title=Poll shows strong Montana support for Trump over Harris|website=KULR8|date=August 14, 2024}}{{#tag:ref|Poll sponsored by KULR-TV|name=KULRTV|group=upper-alpha}}

| data-sort-value="2024-08-12" |August 10–12, 2024

|538 (LV)

|± 4.2%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|52%

|38%

|6%

|0%

|0%

|2%

|8%

style="text-align:left;"|Emerson College

| data-sort-value="2024-08-06" |August 5–6, 2024

|1,000 (RV)

|± 3.0%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|54%

|39%

|5%

|0%

|0%

|0%

|2%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

{{mw-datatable}}

class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"
valign=bottom

! Poll source

! Date(s)
administered

! Sample
size{{#tag:ref

name=key|group=lower-alpha}}

! Margin
of error

! class="unsortable" | Donald
Trump
{{nobold|Republican}}

! class="unsortable" | Kamala
Harris
{{nobold|Democratic}}

! class="unsortable" | Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
{{nobold|Independent}}

! class="unsortable" | Other /
Undecided

style="text-align:left;"|RMG Research{{#invoke:cite weburl=https://napolitaninstitute.org/2024/08/15/montana-senate-tester-49-sheehy-44/|title=Montana Senate: Tester 49% Sheehy 44%|website=Napolitan Institute|date=August 15, 2024}}{{#tag:ref|Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute|name=NI|group=upper-alpha}}

| data-sort-value="2024-08-14" |August 6–14, 2024

|540 (RV)

|± 4.2%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|57%

|39%

|2%

|2%

{{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#cff|title=Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

{{mw-datatable}}

class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"
valign=bottom

! Poll source

! Date(s)
administered

! Sample
size{{#tag:ref

name=key|group=lower-alpha}}

! Margin
of error

! class="unsortable" | Donald
Trump
{{nobold|Republican}}

! class="unsortable" | Joe
Biden
{{nobold|Democratic}}

! class="unsortable" | Other /
Undecided

style="text-align:left;"|Torchlight Strategies (R){{#invoke:cite weburl=https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1806842559198626004|title=June 2024 Survey of Likely Montana Voters|first=John|last=Rogers|website=X|date=June 27, 2024}}{{#tag:ref|Poll commissioned by Common Sense for America PAC, which supports Republican candidates|group=upper-alpha}}

|June 22–26, 2024

|649 (RV)

|± 3.9%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|51%

|35%

|14%{{#tag:ref|"Someone else" with 7%|group=lower-alpha}}

style="text-align:left;"|Public Opinion Strategies (R){{#invoke:cite weburl=https://csimgs.com/montana/June2024MontanaStatewidePollToplineResults.pdf|title=Montana Statewide Poll|work=Public Opinion Strategies|date=June 13, 2024}}{{#tag:ref|Poll sponsored by the Montana Republican Party|name=MTGOP|group=upper-alpha}}

|June 11–13, 2024

|500 (LV)

|± 4.4%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|57%

|37%

|6%

style="text-align:left;"|Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R){{#invoke:cite weburl=https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000190-5081-d7ad-a9b8-55a38d5a0000|title=MONTANA WANTS TO VOTE GOP – SHEEHY LEADS TESTER|first1=Tony|last1=Fabrizio|first2=Travis|last2=Tunis|website=Politico|date=June 17, 2024}}{{#tag:ref|Poll conducted by More Jobs, Less Government which supports Republican candidates|name=PAC|group=upper-alpha}}

| data-sort-value="2024-06-17" |June 3–5, 2024

|500 (LV)

|± 4.4%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|54%

|36%

|10%

style="text-align:left;"|John Zogby Strategies{{#invoke:cite weburl=https://www.kennedy24.com/biden_real_spoiler_kennedy_only_candidate_who_can_beat_trump|title=Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump|website=Kennedy24|date=May 1, 2024}}{{#tag:ref|Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign|name=Kennedy|group=upper-alpha}}

| data-sort-value="2024-05-01" |April 13–21, 2024

|301 (LV)

|–

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|59%

|34%

|7%

style="text-align:left;"|Emerson College{{#invoke:cite weburl=https://emersoncollegepolling.com/montana-2024-poll-u-s-senate-tester-44-sheehy-42/|title=Montana 2024 Poll: U.S. Senate Tester 44%, Sheehy 42%|website=Emerson College Polling|date=March 6, 2024}}{{#tag:refname=NexstarMT|group=upper-alpha}}

| data-sort-value="2024-03-06" |February 26 – March 2, 2024

|1,000 (RV)

|± 3.0%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|56%

|35%

|9%

style="text-align:left;"|SurveyUSA{{#invoke:cite weburl=https://www.montanarightnow.com/elections/poll-shows-trump-winning-montana-over-biden-with-more-support-than-2020/article_48e17b18-cd11-11ee-97e3-6f3132f2909b.html|title=Poll shows Trump winning Montana over Biden with more support than 2020|first=Megan|last=Lewis|website=Montana Right Now|date=February 19, 2024}}{{#tag:refname=KULRTV|group=upper-alpha}}

| data-sort-value="2024-02-19" |February 12–15, 2024

|549 (LV)

|± 4.5%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|51%

|29%

|20%

style="text-align:left;"|Emerson College{{#invoke:cite weburl=https://emersoncollegepolling.com/montana-2024-poll-democratic-senator-jon-tester-holds-narrow-lead-over-republican-challenger-tim-sheehy/|title=Montana 2024 Poll: Democratic Senator Jon Tester Holds Narrow Lead Over Republican Challenger Tim Sheehy|website=Emerson College Polling|date=October 17, 2023}}

| data-sort-value="2023-10-17" |October 1–4, 2023

|447 (RV)

|± 4.6%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|49%

|28%

|23%

style="text-align:left;"|Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D){{#invoke:cite weburl=https://futuremajority.org/wp-content/uploads/FM-October-2023-Report.pdf|title=Pulse of the Nation Report - Voter Attitudes and Concerns Driven by High Costs|website=Future Majority|date=October 11, 2023}}

| data-sort-value="2023-09-19" |September 16–19, 2023

|1,451 (RV)

|–

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|54%

|37%

|9%

style="text-align:left;"|J.L. Partners{{#invoke:cite weburl=https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5db0ca668552dd5ab1168a91/t/64f08041112ed461e30ba1ea/1693483073694/All+Voters+Toplines+V3.pdf|title=Montana - Prepared by J.L. Partners|website=Squarespace|date=August 31, 2023}}

| data-sort-value="2023-08-17" |August 12–17, 2023

|741 (LV)

|–

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|51%

|39%

|10%

style="text-align:left;"|Echelon Insights{{#invoke:cite weburl=https://netchoice.org/new-national-poll-89-of-americans-say-congress-should-focus-on-addressing-inflation-not-breaking-up-tech/|title=New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech|first=Krista|last=Chavez|date=September 13, 2022|website=NetChoice}}

| data-sort-value="2022-09-07" |August 31 – September 7, 2022

|320 (LV)

|± 6.6%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|49%

|36%

|15%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

{{mw-datatable}}

class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"
valign=bottom

! Poll source

! Date(s)
administered

! Sample
size{{#tag:ref

name=key|group=lower-alpha}}

! Margin
of error

! class="unsortable" | Donald
Trump
{{nobold|Republican}}

! class="unsortable" | Joe
Biden
{{nobold|Democratic}}

! class="unsortable" | Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
{{nobold|Independent}}

! class="unsortable" | Cornel
West
{{nobold|Independent}}

! class="unsortable" | Jill
Stein
{{nobold|Green}}

! class="unsortable" | Other /
Undecided

style="text-align:left;"|Emerson College{{#tag:refname=NexstarMT|group=upper-alpha}}

| data-sort-value="2024-03-06" |February 26 – March 2, 2024

|1,000 (RV)

|± 3.0%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|49%

|28%

|8%

|1%

|1%

|13%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West

{{mw-datatable}}

class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"
valign=bottom

! Poll source

! Date(s)
administered

! Sample
size{{#tag:ref

name=key|group=lower-alpha}}

! Margin
of error

! class="unsortable" | Donald
Trump
{{nobold|Republican}}

! class="unsortable" | Joe
Biden
{{nobold|Democratic}}

! class="unsortable" | Cornel
West
{{nobold|Independent}}

! class="unsortable" | Other /
Undecided

style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)

|rowspan="2"|September 16–19, 2023

|rowspan="2"|1,451 (RV)

|rowspan="2"|–

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|51%

|30%

|7%

|12%

style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|49%

|28%

|4%

|19%{{#tag:ref|Joe Manchin with 6%|group=lower-alpha}}

{{hidden end}}

{{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#cff|title=Hypothetical polling with other candidates|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"
valign=bottom

! Poll source

! Date(s)
administered

! Sample
size{{#tag:ref

name=key|group=lower-alpha}}

! Margin
of error

! class="unsortable" | Donald
Trump
{{nobold|Republican}}

! class="unsortable" | Robert
Kennedy Jr.
{{nobold|Independent}}

! class="unsortable" | Other /
Undecided

style="text-align:left;"|John Zogby Strategies{{#tag:refname=Kennedy|group=upper-alpha}}

| data-sort-value="2024-05-01" |April 13–21, 2024

|301 (LV)

|–

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|50%

|35%

|15%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"
valign=bottom

! Poll source

! Date(s)
administered

! Sample
size{{#tag:ref

name=key|group=lower-alpha}}

! Margin
of error

! class="unsortable" | Robert
Kennedy Jr.
{{nobold|Independent}}

! class="unsortable" | Joe
Biden
{{nobold|Democratic}}

! class="unsortable" | Other /
Undecided

style="text-align:left;"|John Zogby Strategies{{#tag:refname=Kennedy|group=upper-alpha}}

| data-sort-value="2024-05-01" |April 13–21, 2024

|301 (LV)

|–

|style="background-color:{{party color|Independent}}"|58%

|30%

|12%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

{{mw-datatable}}

class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"
valign=bottom

! Poll source

! Date(s)
administered

! Sample
size{{#tag:ref

name=key|group=lower-alpha}}

! Margin
of error

! class="unsortable" | Ron
DeSantis
{{nobold|Republican}}

! class="unsortable" | Joe
Biden
{{nobold|Democratic}}

! class="unsortable" | Other /
Undecided

style="text-align:left;"|J.L. Partners

| data-sort-value="2022-09-07" |August 12–17, 2023

|741 (LV)

|–

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|50%

|36%

|14%

style="text-align:left;"|Echelon Insights

| data-sort-value="2022-09-07" |August 31 – September 7, 2022

|320 (LV)

|± 6.6%

|style="background-color:{{Republican Party (US)/meta/shading}}"|42%

|35%

|23%

{{hidden end}}

= Results =

{{Election box begin |title=2024 United States presidential election in Montana{{Cite web |title=Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results |url=https://www.fec.gov/documents/5644/2024presgeresults.pdf |publisher=Federal Election Commission |date=January 16, 2025 |access-date=January 18, 2025}}}}

{{Election box winning candidate with party link|party=Republican Party (United States)|candidate={{ubl|Donald Trump|JD Vance}}|votes=352,079|percentage=58.39%|change=+1.47%}}

{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Democratic Party (United States)|candidate={{ubl|Kamala Harris|Tim Walz}}|votes=231,906|percentage=38.46%|change=−2.09%}}

{{Election box candidate with party link|party=We the People Party|candidate={{ubl|Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn)|Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn)}}|votes=11,825|percentage=1.96%|change=N/A}}

{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Libertarian Party (United States)|candidate={{ubl|Chase Oliver|Mike ter Maat}}|votes=4,275|percentage=0.71%|change=−1.82%}}

{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Green Party (United States)|candidate={{ubl|Jill Stein|Butch Ware}}|votes=2,878|percentage=0.48%|change=N/A}}

{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Independent|candidate={{ubl|Shiva Ayyadurai (write-in)|Crystal Ellis (write-in)}}|votes=21|percentage=0.00%|change=N/A}}

{{Election box write-in with party link|votes=6|percentage=0.00%|change=N/A}}

{{Election box total|votes=602,990|percentage=100.00%|change=N/A}}

{{Election box end}}

== By county ==

From Secretary of State of Montana{{Cite web|title=Montana Secretary of State|url=https://electionresults.mt.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY|access-date=2024-12-01|website=electionresults.mt.gov}}

width="60%" class="wikitable sortable"

! rowspan="2" |County

! colspan="2" |Donald Trump
Republican

! colspan="2" |Kamala Harris
Democratic

! colspan="2" |Various candidates
Other parties

! colspan="2" |Margin

! rowspan="2" |Total

style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" |#

! style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" |%

! style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" |#

! style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" |%

! style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" |#

! style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" |%

! style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" |#

! style="text-align:center;" data-sort-type="number" |%

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Beaverhead

| {{party shading/Republican}} |4,058

| {{party shading/Republican}} |70.04%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |1,543

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |26.63%

| {{party shading/Others}} |193

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.33%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,515

| {{party shading/Republican}} |43.41%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |5,794

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Big Horn

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,188

| {{party shading/Republican}} |48.95%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |2,112

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |47.25%

| {{party shading/Others}} |170

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.80%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |76

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1.70%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |4,470

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Blaine

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,526

| {{party shading/Republican}} |50.55%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |1,348

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |44.65%

| {{party shading/Others}} |145

| {{party shading/Others}} |4.80%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |178

| {{party shading/Republican}} |5.90%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |3,019

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Broadwater

| {{party shading/Republican}} |3,770

| {{party shading/Republican}} |78.38%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |885

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |18.40%

| {{party shading/Others}} |155

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.22%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,885

| {{party shading/Republican}} |59.98%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |4,810

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Carbon

| {{party shading/Republican}} |4,719

| {{party shading/Republican}} |64.67%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |2,353

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |32.25%

| {{party shading/Others}} |225

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.08%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,366

| {{party shading/Republican}} |32.42%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |7,297

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Carter

| {{party shading/Republican}} |760

| {{party shading/Republican}} |88.99%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |75

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |8.78%

| {{party shading/Others}} |19

| {{party shading/Others}} |2.23%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |685

| {{party shading/Republican}} |80.21%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |854

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Cascade

| {{party shading/Republican}} |22,419

| {{party shading/Republican}} |59.65%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |14,021

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |37.31%

| {{party shading/Others}} |1,143

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.04%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |8,398

| {{party shading/Republican}} |22.34%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |37,583

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Chouteau

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,885

| {{party shading/Republican}} |64.25%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |940

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |32.04%

| {{party shading/Others}} |109

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.71%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |945

| {{party shading/Republican}} |32.21%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,934

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Custer

| {{party shading/Republican}} |4,208

| {{party shading/Republican}} |72.54%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |1,385

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |23.88%

| {{party shading/Others}} |208

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.58%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,823

| {{party shading/Republican}} |48.66%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |5,801

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Daniels

| {{party shading/Republican}} |778

| {{party shading/Republican}} |81.81%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |154

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |16.19%

| {{party shading/Others}} |19

| {{party shading/Others}} |2.00%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |624

| {{party shading/Republican}} |65.62%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |951

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Dawson

| {{party shading/Republican}} |3,627

| {{party shading/Republican}} |78.20%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |894

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |19.28%

| {{party shading/Others}} |117

| {{party shading/Others}} |2.52%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,733

| {{party shading/Republican}} |58.92%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |4,638

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |Deer Lodge

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,329

| {{party shading/Republican}} |47.82%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |2,376

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |48.79%

| {{party shading/Others}} |165

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.39%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}

47

| {{party shading/Democratic}}

0.97%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |4,870

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Fallon

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,303

| {{party shading/Republican}} |86.46%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |163

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |10.82%

| {{party shading/Others}} |41

| {{party shading/Others}} |2.72%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,140

| {{party shading/Republican}} |75.64%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,507

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Fergus

| {{party shading/Republican}} |4,965

| {{party shading/Republican}} |73.97%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |1,522

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |22.68%

| {{party shading/Others}} |225

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.35%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |3,443

| {{party shading/Republican}} |51.29%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |6,712

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Flathead

| {{party shading/Republican}} |41,390

| {{party shading/Republican}} |65.18%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |20,062

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |31.59%

| {{party shading/Others}} |2,049

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.23%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |21,328

| {{party shading/Republican}} |33.59%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |63,501

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |Gallatin

| {{party shading/Republican}} |32,695

| {{party shading/Republican}} |46.50%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |34,938

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |49.69%

| {{party shading/Others}} |2,684

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.81%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}

2,243

| {{party shading/Democratic}}

3.19%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |70,317

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Garfield

| {{party shading/Republican}} |756

| {{party shading/Republican}} |94.50%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |39

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |4.88%

| {{party shading/Others}} |5

| {{party shading/Others}} |0.62%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |717

| {{party shading/Republican}} |89.62%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |800

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |Glacier

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,939

| {{party shading/Republican}} |38.18%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |2,933

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |57.76%

| {{party shading/Others}} |206

| {{party shading/Others}} |4.06%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}

994

| {{party shading/Democratic}}

19.58%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |5,078

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Golden Valley

| {{party shading/Republican}} |440

| {{party shading/Republican}} |85.44%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |67

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |13.01%

| {{party shading/Others}} |8

| {{party shading/Others}} |1.55%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |373

| {{party shading/Republican}} |72.43%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |515

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Granite

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,537

| {{party shading/Republican}} |70.63%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |579

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |26.61%

| {{party shading/Others}} |60

| {{party shading/Others}} |2.76%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |958

| {{party shading/Republican}} |44.02%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,176

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Hill

| {{party shading/Republican}} |3,871

| {{party shading/Republican}} |56.89%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |2,634

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |38.71%

| {{party shading/Others}} |299

| {{party shading/Others}} |4.40%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,237

| {{party shading/Republican}} |18.18%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |6,804

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Jefferson

| {{party shading/Republican}} |5,544

| {{party shading/Republican}} |66.85%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |2,516

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |30.34%

| {{party shading/Others}} |233

| {{party shading/Others}} |2.81%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |3,028

| {{party shading/Republican}} |36.51%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |8,293

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Judith Basin

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,051

| {{party shading/Republican}} |77.68%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |265

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |19.59%

| {{party shading/Others}} |37

| {{party shading/Others}} |2.73%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |786

| {{party shading/Republican}} |58.09%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,353

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Lake

| {{party shading/Republican}} |9,880

| {{party shading/Republican}} |58.22%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |6,510

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |38.36%

| {{party shading/Others}} |581

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.42%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |3,370

| {{party shading/Republican}} |19.86%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |16,971

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Lewis and Clark

| {{party shading/Republican}} |21,479

| {{party shading/Republican}} |50.82%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |19,085

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |45.16%

| {{party shading/Others}} |1,699

| {{party shading/Others}} |4.02%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,394

| {{party shading/Republican}} |5.66%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |42,263

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Liberty

| {{party shading/Republican}} |752

| {{party shading/Republican}} |76.11%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |214

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |21.66%

| {{party shading/Others}} |22

| {{party shading/Others}} |2.23%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |538

| {{party shading/Republican}} |54.45%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |988

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Lincoln

| {{party shading/Republican}} |8,909

| {{party shading/Republican}} |75.57%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |2,615

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |22.18%

| {{party shading/Others}} |265

| {{party shading/Others}} |2.25%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |6,294

| {{party shading/Republican}} |53.39%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |11,789

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Madison

| {{party shading/Republican}} |4,615

| {{party shading/Republican}} |71.42%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |1,689

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |26.14%

| {{party shading/Others}} |158

| {{party shading/Others}} |2.44%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,926

| {{party shading/Republican}} |45.28%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |6,462

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |McCone

| {{party shading/Republican}} |931

| {{party shading/Republican}} |86.04%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |129

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |11.92%

| {{party shading/Others}} |22

| {{party shading/Others}} |2.04%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |802

| {{party shading/Republican}} |74.12%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,082

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Meagher

| {{party shading/Republican}} |888

| {{party shading/Republican}} |75.77%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |256

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |21.84%

| {{party shading/Others}} |28

| {{party shading/Others}} |2.39%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |632

| {{party shading/Republican}} |53.93%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,172

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Mineral

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,049

| {{party shading/Republican}} |72.33%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |689

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |24.32%

| {{party shading/Others}} |95

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.35%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,360

| {{party shading/Republican}} |48.01%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,833

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |Missoula

| {{party shading/Republican}} |27,306

| {{party shading/Republican}} |37.52%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |42,903

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |58.95%

| {{party shading/Others}} |2,564

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.53%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}

15,597

| {{party shading/Democratic}}

21.43%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |72,773

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Musselshell

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,550

| {{party shading/Republican}} |84.66%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |396

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |13.15%

| {{party shading/Others}} |66

| {{party shading/Others}} |2.19%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,154

| {{party shading/Republican}} |71.51%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |3,012

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Park

| {{party shading/Republican}} |6,128

| {{party shading/Republican}} |52.30%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |5,224

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |44.58%

| {{party shading/Others}} |365

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.12%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |904

| {{party shading/Republican}} |7.72%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |11,717

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Petroleum

| {{party shading/Republican}} |284

| {{party shading/Republican}} |87.65%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |37

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |11.42%

| {{party shading/Others}} |3

| {{party shading/Others}} |0.93%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |247

| {{party shading/Republican}} |76.23%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |324

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Phillips

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,753

| {{party shading/Republican}} |80.08%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |385

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |17.59%

| {{party shading/Others}} |51

| {{party shading/Others}} |2.33%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,368

| {{party shading/Republican}} |62.49%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,189

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Pondera

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,972

| {{party shading/Republican}} |69.14%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |782

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |27.42%

| {{party shading/Others}} |98

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.44%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,190

| {{party shading/Republican}} |41.72%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,852

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Powder River

| {{party shading/Republican}} |963

| {{party shading/Republican}} |87.07%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |131

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |11.84%

| {{party shading/Others}} |12

| {{party shading/Others}} |1.09%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |832

| {{party shading/Republican}} |75.23%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,106

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Powell

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,466

| {{party shading/Republican}} |75.14%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |710

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |21.63%

| {{party shading/Others}} |106

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.23%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,756

| {{party shading/Republican}} |53.51%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |3,282

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Prairie

| {{party shading/Republican}} |546

| {{party shading/Republican}} |79.25%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |122

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |17.71%

| {{party shading/Others}} |21

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.04%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |424

| {{party shading/Republican}} |61.54%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |689

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Ravalli

| {{party shading/Republican}} |20,617

| {{party shading/Republican}} |68.66%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |8,485

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |28.26%

| {{party shading/Others}} |925

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.08%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |12,132

| {{party shading/Republican}} |40.40%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |30,027

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Richland

| {{party shading/Republican}} |4,387

| {{party shading/Republican}} |82.63%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |778

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |14.65%

| {{party shading/Others}} |144

| {{party shading/Others}} |2.72%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |3,609

| {{party shading/Republican}} |67.98%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |5,309

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Roosevelt

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,055

| {{party shading/Republican}} |52.50%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |1,680

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |42.92%

| {{party shading/Others}} |179

| {{party shading/Others}} |4.58%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |375

| {{party shading/Republican}} |9.58%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |3,914

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Rosebud

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,466

| {{party shading/Republican}} |66.77%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |1,095

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |29.65%

| {{party shading/Others}} |132

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.58%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,371

| {{party shading/Republican}} |37.12%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |3,693

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Sanders

| {{party shading/Republican}} |6,150

| {{party shading/Republican}} |76.19%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |1,705

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |21.12%

| {{party shading/Others}} |217

| {{party shading/Others}} |2.69%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |4,445

| {{party shading/Republican}} |55.07%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |8,072

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Sheridan

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,321

| {{party shading/Republican}} |69.09%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |509

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |26.62%

| {{party shading/Others}} |82

| {{party shading/Others}} |4.29%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |812

| {{party shading/Republican}} |42.47%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,912

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |Silver Bow

| {{party shading/Republican}} |8,110

| {{party shading/Republican}} |44.50%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |9,386

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |51.50%

| {{party shading/Others}} |730

| {{party shading/Others}} |4.00%

| {{party shading/Democratic}}

1,276

| {{party shading/Democratic}}

7.00%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |18,226

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Stillwater

| {{party shading/Republican}} |4,699

| {{party shading/Republican}} |79.56%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |1,056

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |17.88%

| {{party shading/Others}} |151

| {{party shading/Others}} |2.56%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |3,643

| {{party shading/Republican}} |61.68%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |5,906

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Sweet Grass

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,789

| {{party shading/Republican}} |75.14%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |525

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |22.05%

| {{party shading/Others}} |67

| {{party shading/Others}} |2.81%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,264

| {{party shading/Republican}} |53.09%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,381

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Teton

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,533

| {{party shading/Republican}} |70.99%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |927

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |25.98%

| {{party shading/Others}} |108

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.03%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,606

| {{party shading/Republican}} |45.01%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |3,568

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Toole

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,571

| {{party shading/Republican}} |76.78%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |415

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |20.28%

| {{party shading/Others}} |60

| {{party shading/Others}} |2.94%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,156

| {{party shading/Republican}} |56.50%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,046

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Treasure

| {{party shading/Republican}} |367

| {{party shading/Republican}} |83.03%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |57

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |12.90%

| {{party shading/Others}} |18

| {{party shading/Others}} |4.07%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |310

| {{party shading/Republican}} |70.13%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |442

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Valley

| {{party shading/Republican}} |3,019

| {{party shading/Republican}} |74.01%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |935

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |22.92%

| {{party shading/Others}} |125

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.07%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |2,084

| {{party shading/Republican}} |51.09%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |4,079

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Wheatland

| {{party shading/Republican}} |843

| {{party shading/Republican}} |77.62%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |209

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |19.24%

| {{party shading/Others}} |34

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.14%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |634

| {{party shading/Republican}} |58.38%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |1,086

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Wibaux

| {{party shading/Republican}} |463

| {{party shading/Republican}} |84.80%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |71

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |13.00%

| {{party shading/Others}} |12

| {{party shading/Others}} |2.20%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |392

| {{party shading/Republican}} |71.80%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |546

style="text-align:center;"

| {{party shading/Republican}} |Yellowstone

| {{party shading/Republican}} |50,460

| {{party shading/Republican}} |62.00%

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |28,392

| {{party shading/Democratic}} |34.88%

| {{party shading/Others}} |2,541

| {{party shading/Others}} |3.12%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |22,068

| {{party shading/Republican}} |27.12%

| {{party shading/Republican}} |81,393

Totals352,07958.27%231,90638.38%20,1963.35%120,17319.89%604,181

;Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

{{align|right|{{Switcher| 300px|Swing by county
{{collapsible list| title = Legend|

{{legend|#aaeeff|Democratic — +2.5-5%}}|

{{legend|#d5f6ff|Democratic — +0-2.5%}}|

{{legend|#ffd5d5|Republican — +0-2.5%}}|

{{legend|#ffaaaa|Republican — +2.5-5%}}|

{{legend|#ff8080|Republican — +5-7.5%}}|

{{legend|#ff5555|Republican — +7.5-10%}}|

{{legend|#ff2a2a|Republican — +10-12.5%}}}}|

300px|County flips
{{collapsible list| title = Legend| {{col-begin}}

{{col-2}}

Democratic

{{legend|#92c5de|Hold}}

{{col-2}}

Republican

{{legend|#f48882|Hold}}

{{legend|#ca0120|Gain from Democratic}}

{{col-end}}}}}}}}

==By congressional district==

Trump won both congressional districts.https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::66ff2b64-826d-48a9-bbe4-08afa4c10873

class=wikitable
District

! Trump

! Harris

! Representative

align=center

! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Montana|1|1st}}

| 54%

| 43%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Ryan Zinke

align=center

! rowspan=2 {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Montana|2|2nd}}

| rowspan=2|63%

| rowspan=2|34%

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Matt Rosendale (118th Congress)

align=center

| {{party shading/Republican}}|Troy Downing (119th Congress)

Analysis

Although somewhat less conservative than its neighboring states, Montana — a sparsely-populated state in the Northern Rockies and Great Plains — has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton narrowly did so in 1992, neither has it been competitive at the presidential level since Democrat Barack Obama came up less than 3 points shy of carrying the state in 2008. With the exception of 2008, the state has been carried by Republican presidential candidates by double digits since 2000.

However, despite the state's strong Republican lean, Montana received significant attention from both parties due to the simultaneous U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, which was seen as competitive but favoring Sheehy, who ended up winning by over seven points. Trump's victory is seen to have helped Sheehy win via the coattail effect, thus flipping Montana's last remaining Democratic statewide office into the Republican column.

Trump became the first Republican to win predominantly-Native American Big Horn County since Ronald Reagan in 1980. In addition, his 9.5% victory in Roosevelt County is the best for a presidential Republican since Reagan's 10.5% in 1984; the historically-Democratic county, home to much of the Fort Peck Reservation, has voted for Trump in all three of his election bids. With Clallam County, Washington voting for Harris, Blaine County now holds the longest active bellwether streak in the nation, having last voted for a losing presidential candidate in 1988, its only miss outside of its inaugural election in 1912. Trump also came within just 47 votes of winning Deer Lodge County, thus giving the best performance for a Republican there since Calvin Coolidge last won the county in 1924.

See also

Notes

{{notelist|refs=Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear}}

Partisan clients

{{notelist-ua}}

References

{{Reflist|30em}}

{{2024 United States elections}}

{{State results of the 2024 U.S. presidential election}}

Montana

2024

Presidential