Carleton in the 2025 Canadian federal election
{{Short description|none}}
{{Infobox election
| election_date = 28 April 2025
| country = Canada
| previous_election = Results_of_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election_by_riding#Ottawa
| previous_year = 2021
| next_election = 46th Canadian federal election
| next_year = Next
| seats_for_election = Riding of Carleton
| turnout = 86,655
81.84% ({{increase}}7.27pp)
| image1 =
| candidate1 = Bruce Fanjoy
| colour1 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|Liberal|nohash}}
| party1 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|Liberal|name}}
| popular_vote1 = 43,846
| percentage1 = 50.95%
| swing1 = {{increase}} 19.09pp
| image2 = Pierre_Poilievre_in_2023_(edited).jpg
| candidate2 = Pierre Poilievre
| colour2 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|Conservative|nohash}}
| party2 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|Conservative|name}}
| popular_vote2 = 39,333
| percentage2 = 45.70%
| swing2 = {{decrease}} 6.16pp
| image3 =
| candidate3 = Beth Prokaska
| colour3 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|NDP|nohash}}
| party3 = {{Canadian party colour|CA|NDP|name}}
| popular_vote3 = 1,221
| percentage3 = 1.42%
| swing3 = {{decrease}} 9.95pp
| title = MP
| before_election = Pierre Poilievre
| before_party = Conservative
| after_election = Bruce Fanjoy
| after_party = Liberal
| type = Parliamentary
| ongoing = no
}}
An election took place in the federal electoral district of Carleton on April 28, 2025 as part of the 2025 Canadian federal election. Liberal Party candidate Bruce Fanjoy defeated Conservative Party leader and Leader of the Opposition Pierre Poilievre by over 4,300 votes in an upset victory. During the campaign, it became "one of the most-watched races in the country".
Background
Carleton, which covers much of Ottawa's rural area and outer suburbs, was considered a Conservative stronghold seat,{{Cite web |date=May 1, 2025 |last=Djuric |first=Mickey |title=‘Pierre Barely Showed Up’: How Canada’s Conservative Leader Lost His Seat in Parliament |url=https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/05/01/canada-election-poilievre-defeat-qa-00321245 |access-date=May 3, 2025 |website=POLITICO }} with Poilievre holding it, and its predecessor seat Nepean—Carleton since the 2004 Canadian federal election. First elected when he was 25 years old, Poilievre won seven straight elections, with only the 2015 election being close. The 2025 election was the first with Poilievre as leader of the Conservatives.{{Cite web |date=April 28, 2025 |last1=Mohsen |first1=Sadeen |last2=Payne |first2=Elizabeth |title=‘Conservatives lose election; Poilievre loses Carleton riding |url=https://ottawacitizen.com/news/pierre-poilievre-carleton-riding-election-results |access-date=May 3, 2025 |website=Ottawa Citizen }}
Campaign
{{see also|2025 Canadian federal election#Campaign|Opinion polling for the 2025 Canadian federal election by constituency#Carleton}}
Fanjoy, a stay-at-home father, former businessman, and environmentalist began canvassing the district in 2023, and officially became the Liberal candidate in June 2024. His candidacy was initially seen as a "long shot",{{Cite web |date=April 29, 2025 |last1=Isai |first1=Vjosa |last2=Bearak |first2=Max |title=Pierre Poilievre, Canada’s Opposition Leader, Loses Seat in Parliament |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/28/world/canada/pierre-poilievre-canada-election-loss-parliament.html|access-date=May 3, 2025 |website=The New York Times }} with many people being skeptical of his chances. During the campaign, he went through two pairs of shoes and a pair of boots, while door-knocking five days a week, estimating that he knocked on 15,000 doors,{{Cite web |date=April 30, 2025 |last=Molina |first=Kimberly |title=Carleton was Poilievre's riding to lose. When he did, it came as a shock to many |url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/carleton-residents-surprise-liberal-elected-poilievre-fanjoy-1.7521571|access-date=May 3, 2025 |website=CBC }} and raised more than $100,000.
It was not until the last stages of the campaign when the Conservatives began to be worried that the riding was in danger of being lost. With just a few days to go before election day, a source from the Liberal campaign confirmed with the press that their projections showed that the gap between Poilievre and Fanjoy had dropped to five points.{{Cite web |date=April 24, 2025 |last=Payne |first=Elizabeth |title=Pierre Poilievre in a horse race in Carleton as gap with Liberal Bruce Fanjoy tightens |url=https://ottawacitizen.com/news/pierre-poilievre-tight-race-ottawa-riding |access-date=May 3, 2025 |website=Ottawa Citizen }}
Both the Liberals and Conservatives sent extra campaign workers to the riding in the final days of the campaign, with Conservative sources confirming Poilievre was at risk of losing the seat. Poilievre visited the riding the night before election day, though almost half of all voters had already cast their ballots in advance polls, the most of any district in the country. Previously, Poilievre had only visited the riding at the beginning of the election to launch his campaign.
File:Carleton - 2025 Federal election - 20250428-152255.jpg
In addition to the race being a high-profile one, the campaign was targeted by the Longest Ballot Committee, whose aim is to field many candidates to protest Canada's use of the first-past-the-post voting system. In total, 91 candidates ran in the seat, tying the record for the most candidates on a federal ballot. The ballot was a metre long and caused logistical difficulties.
Owing to the closeness of the result, and the sheer length of the ballots, the CBC finally called the race for Fanjoy at 5:00am on election night.
Fanjoy credited his victory to the ongoing trade war with the United States spurred on by President of the United States Donald Trump,{{Cite web |date=April 29, 2025 |title=Liberal Bruce Fanjoy topples Pierre Poilievre in Carleton |url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/canada-federal-election-2025-carleton-pierre-poilievre-results-1.7515695|access-date=May 3, 2025 |website=CBC }} with the Liberal campaign drawing parallels between Poilievre and Trump's styles. Many federal public servants live in the riding and Fanjoy targeted them with fears of job cuts by Poilievre. Fanjoy also stated that Poilievre "took the riding for granted".{{Cite web |date=April 29, 2025 |last=Van Dyk |first=Spencer |title=‘He took the riding for granted,’ says Liberal who unseated Poilievre|url=https://www.ctvnews.ca/federal-election-2025/article/he-took-the-riding-for-granted-says-bruce-fanjoy-liberal-who-unseated-poilievre/ |access-date=May 3, 2025 |website=CTV}} Other factors that were attributed to Poilievre's loss include the suburbanization of the riding, with people moving there during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ottawa, as well as Poilievre's support for the Canada convoy protest, which occupied the city's downtown during the pandemic.{{Cite web |date=May 8, 2025 |last=Payne |first=Elizabeth |title=Losing Carleton: Poilievre's defeat in rural Ottawa was years in the making |url=https://ottawacitizen.com/feature/how-pierre-poilievre-lost-carleton |access-date=May 8, 2025 |website=Ottawa Citizen }}
Aftermath
Despite losing the seat, Poilievre decided to stay on as Conservative leader.{{Cite web |date=April 29, 2025 |last1=Taylor |first1=Stephanie |last2=Nardi |first2=Christopher |title=Pierre Poilievre didn't just lose his seat. He also likely lost his home|url=https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/federal_election/poilievre-loses-his-seat-after-indicating-plans-to-remain-party-leader-as-liberals-win|access-date=May 3, 2025 |website=National Post }} As a result, Battle River—Crowfoot MP Damien Kurek announced his intention to vacate his seat, which would trigger the 2025 Battle River—Crowfoot federal by-election and allow Poilievre a chance to return to Parliament.{{Cite web |last1=Westoll |first1=Nick |last2=Heintz |first2=Lauryn |date=2025-05-02 |title=Mark Carney says he will quickly call byelection for Pierre Poilievre, Alberta MP to resign |url=https://edmonton.citynews.ca/2025/05/02/pierre-poilievre-mark-carney-byelection-call/ |access-date=2025-05-02 |website=CityNews Edmonton |language=en}}{{cite news |last1=Tipper |first1=Stephen |title=Pierre Poilievre to contest byelection in Alberta riding after Damien Kurek steps down |url=https://calgaryherald.com/news/pierre-poilievre-byelection-alberta-battle-river-crowfoot |access-date=2 May 2025 |work=Calgary Herald |date=May 2, 2025}}
Results
{{2025 Canadian federal election/Carleton}}
Previous result
| class="wikitable" | ||
| colspan="4" | 2021 federal election redistributed results{{Cite web| title=Transposition of Votes from the 44th General Election to the 2023 Representation Orders|url=https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/tra/2023rep&document=index&lang=e|access-date=9 April 2024|website=Elections Canada}} | ||
|---|---|---|
| bgcolor="#DDDDFF" width="130px" colspan="2" | Party
! bgcolor="#DDDDFF" width="50px" | Vote ! bgcolor="#DDDDFF" width="30px" | % | ||
| {{Canadian party colour|CA|Conservative|background}} | | align=right| 36,534 | align=right| 51.86 |
| {{Canadian party colour|CA|Liberal|background}} |
| Liberal | align=right| 22,448 | align=right| 31.86 |
| {{Canadian party colour|CA|NDP|background}} | | align=right| 8,012 | align=right| 11.37 |
| {{Canadian party colour|CA|PPC|background}} |
| People's | align=right| 1,939 | align=right| 2.75 |
| {{Canadian party colour|CA|Green|background}} |
| Green | align=right| 1,512 | align=right| 2.15 |
| {{Canadian party colour|CA|Independent|background}} |
| Others | align=right| 7 | align=right| 0.01 |
{{2021 Canadian federal election/Carleton}}
See also
References
{{reflist}}
{{Canadian federal election, 2025A}}
{{Pierre Poilievre}}
Category:2025 Canadian federal election
Category:Constituency contests in Canadian federal elections