Climate change in Guatemala

"Guatemala emitted 40 million metric tons (MtCO2e) of greenhouse gases in 2011, with the land-use change and forestry sector contributing 40 percent to overall emissions. Greenhouse gas emissions grew by 38 percent from 1990 - 2011 with significant contribution from the land-use change and forestry, energy and agriculture sectors."{{Cite web|last=|first=|date=|title=Greenhouse Gas Emissions Factsheet: Guatemala {{!}} Global Climate Change|url=https://www.climatelinks.org/resources/ghg-emissions-factsheet-guatemala|access-date=2019-05-07|website=Climate Links|publisher=USAID}}

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| image1 = Koppen-Geiger Map GTM present.svg

| caption1 = Köppen climate classification map for Guatemala for 1980–2016

| image2 = Koppen-Geiger Map GTM future.svg

| caption2 = 2071–2100 map under the most intense climate change scenario. Mid-range scenarios are currently considered more likely{{cite journal|last1=Hausfather|first1=Zeke|last2=Peters|first2=Glen|title=Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading|journal=Nature|date=29 January 2020|volume=577|issue=7792|pages=618–20|doi=10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3|pmid=31996825|bibcode=2020Natur.577..618H|doi-access=free}}{{Cite journal |last1=Schuur |first1=Edward A.G. |last2=Abbott |first2=Benjamin W. |last3=Commane |first3=Roisin |last4=Ernakovich |first4=Jessica |last5=Euskirchen |first5=Eugenie |last6=Hugelius |first6=Gustaf |last7=Grosse |first7=Guido |last8=Jones |first8=Miriam |last9=Koven |first9=Charlie |last10=Leshyk |first10=Victor |last11=Lawrence |first11=David |last12=Loranty |first12=Michael M. |last13=Mauritz |first13=Marguerite |last14=Olefeldt |first14=David |last15=Natali |first15=Susan |last16=Rodenhizer |first16=Heidi |last17=Salmon |first17=Verity |last18=Schädel |first18=Christina |last19=Strauss |first19=Jens |last20=Treat |first20=Claire |last21=Turetsky |first21=Merritt |year=2022 |title=Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic |journal=Annual Review of Environment and Resources |volume=47 |pages=343–371 |doi=10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847 |quote="Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement..." |doi-access=free }}{{Cite web |last=Phiddian |first=Ellen |date=5 April 2022 |title=Explainer: IPCC Scenarios |url=https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/explainer-ipcc-scenarios/ |website=Cosmos |access-date=30 September 2023 |quote="The IPCC doesn’t make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C. |archive-date=20 September 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230920224129/https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/explainer-ipcc-scenarios/ |url-status=live }}

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A report by the Guatemalan System of Climate Change Sciences in 2019 indicated that rainy season is starting later as a result of climate change, putting subsistence farmers and indigenous people in poor communities at risk of food shortages resulting from poor harvests.{{Cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-guatemala-climatechange-poor-idUSKCN1SA024|title=The poorest in Guatemala bear brunt of climate change, research says|last=Moloney|first=Anastasia|date=2019-05-04|work=Reuters|access-date=2019-05-04|language=en}}

Populations of Guatemala's edible giant winged leaf-cutter ant are declining.{{Cite web|url=https://antiguadailyphoto.com/2014/05/18/meet-the-giant-guatemalan-winged-leaf-cutter-ant-zompopo/|title=Meet the giant Guatemalan winged-leaf-cutter ant: Zompopo|date=2014-05-18|website=AntiguaDailyPhoto.Com|language=en-US|access-date=2019-05-07}}{{Cite web|url=https://rove.me/to/guatemala/zompopos-de-mayo|title=Zompopos de Mayo Season in Guatemala 2019|last=|first=|date=|website=Rove.me|language=en|access-date=2019-05-07}} "Guatemala's zompopos, yellow ants, of May are now the zompopos of June," according to Dr. Edwin Castellanos, of the Universidad del Valle de Guatemala.{{Cite web|last=Castellanos|first=Edwin|date=2016-03-07|title=Climate Change in Guatemala|url=http://www.entremundos.org/revista/environment/climate-change/climate-change-in-guatemala/?lang=en|access-date=2019-05-07|website=EntreMundos|language=en-US}}

Guatemalan farmers have experienced extreme weather events such as hurricanes, as well as erratic weather patterns with spikes and drops in temperature, torrential rains, drought, and unexpected frost.{{Cite news|last1=Montes|first1=Juan|last2=Pérez|first2=Santiago|date=2019-04-05|title=Mexico Struggles to Contain Surge in Central American Migrants|language=en-US|work=Wall Street Journal|url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-struggles-to-contain-surge-in-central-american-migrants-11554462000|access-date=2019-05-07|issn=0099-9660}}{{Cite web|last=|first=|date=25 April 2019|title=Erratic weather patterns in the Central American Dry Corridor leave 1.4 million people in urgent need of food assistance|url=http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1191887/icode/|access-date=2019-05-04|website=Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations |language=en|archive-date=2021-05-29|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210529102043/http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1191887/icode/|url-status=dead}} One crop affected has been potatoes, which suffer from fungus.

Guatemala's western highlands are particularly susceptible to climate change, impacting the region’s predominantly indigenous population of subsistence farmers. The main crops, potatoes and maize, have been over increasing pressure as hard frosts in the region have become more frequent since 2013. Hard frosts can kill a whole season’s worth of crops at once. At lower elevations, new pests are becoming more prevalent and there has been decreased rainfall.

The problem of food security and famine has increased, especially in the “corredor seco" (an area extending from the departments of Izabal and Baja Verapaz in the north to Santa Rosa and Jutiapa in the south).

In 2018, 50% of the 94,000 Guatemalans deported from the United States and Mexico were from the country's western highlands severely affected by climate change.

In 2019, Palm Beach County, Florida saw an increase in Guatemalan immigrants from the "Dry corridor", seeking to escape hunger caused by periods of drought followed by torrential rains that had impacted their crops.

US humanitarian aid for projects related climate and agriculture has focused on helping farmers adapt so that they can remain on their land. USAID support for Guatemala has included development of "early-warning systems for floods and fires, as well as promoting soil and watershed conservation, rain water harvesting, and other adaptive practices." According to the GAO, the mandate for studies to determine the impact of these programs on migration has been rescinded. A third round of cuts to US aid has been proposed for FY2020.

US based NGOs which have been active in climate-related projects in the forestry and agricultural sectors experienced funding cuts under the first Trump Administration.{{Cite web|url=https://www.philly.com/opinion/central-american-immigration-climate-change-trump-border-wall-20190425.html|title=Climate denier Trump can't handle the truth about why Central Americans flock to U.S.|last=Bunch|first=Will|date=April 25, 2019|website=Philadelphia Inquirer|language=en-US|access-date=2019-05-07}} For example, Asociación de Cooperación para el Desarrollo Rural de Occidente (C.D.R.O.) was a Guatemalan program originally funded by the United States’ government. C.D.R.O. focused on agroforestry and weather monitoring systems to help farmers mitigate the effects of climate change. The organization provided residents with resources to plant new, more adaptable crops to alongside their typical maize to protect the corn from variable temperatures, frost, etc. C.D.R.O. also set up a weather monitoring system to help predict extreme weather events, and would send residents text messages to warn them about periods of frost, extreme heat, humidity, or drought. Funding for the program was cut by the Trump administration in 2017.

Guatemala has joined the V20, a group of 48 developing economies working together with development banks towards climate resilience and 100% renewable energy.{{Cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-climatechange-finance-idUSKCN1RO27K|title=Shunned by investors, poorer nations seek to climate-proof growth|last=Rowling|first=Megan|date=2019-04-12|work=Reuters|access-date=2019-05-04|language=en}}

• Climate of Guatemala
• Central American dry corridor
• Central American migrant caravans
• Climate refugees

{{reflist}}

• [https://www.adaptation-undp.org/explore/guatemala Guatemala, Climate Change Adaptation], United Nations Development Programme
• [https://www.climatelinks.org/countries/guatemala Guatemala], Climate Links, USAID

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Category:Environment of Guatemala

Guatemala