Climate change in Senegal

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Senegal is currently not a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. The country contributes less than a ton of CO₂ per person per year (compared to the global average of over 6 tons per person per year{{Cite journal|date=2020-02-06|title=4 Charts Explain Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Countries and Sectors|url=https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/02/greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-country-sector|access-date=2020-11-27|website=World Resources Institute|language=en|last1=Ge|first1=Mengpin|last2=Friedrich|first2=Johannes|last3=Vigna|first3=Leandro}}) and placing 150th in the List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions However, it is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change.

Most energy in Senegal is produced from fossil fuels,{{Cite web|date=2020-04-16|title=Power Africa in Senegal {{!}} Power Africa|url=https://www.usaid.gov/powerafrica/senegal|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160519033840/https://www.usaid.gov/powerafrica/senegal|url-status=dead|archive-date=May 19, 2016|access-date=2020-04-28|website=USAID|language=en}} predominantly diesel and gas. A small portion of Senegal's energy comes from renewable energy, such as the Manantali Dam in Mali and a new wind farm in Thiès.

Historically, Senegal was not a major producer of fossil fuels but significant discoveries in natural gas, have led to a major increase in production.{{Cite web|title=Senegal Energy Outlook – Analysis|url=https://www.iea.org/articles/senegal-energy-outlook|access-date=2020-04-28|website=IEA|language=en-GB}}

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| image1 = Koppen-Geiger Map SEN present.svg

| caption1 = Köppen climate classification map for Senegal for 1980–2016

| image2 = Koppen-Geiger Map SEN future.svg

| caption2 = 2071–2100 map under the most intense climate change scenario. Mid-range scenarios are currently considered more likely{{cite journal|last1=Hausfather|first1=Zeke|last2=Peters|first2=Glen|title=Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading|journal=Nature|date=29 January 2020|volume=577|issue=7792|pages=618–20|doi=10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3|pmid=31996825|bibcode=2020Natur.577..618H|doi-access=free}}{{Cite journal |last1=Schuur |first1=Edward A.G. |last2=Abbott |first2=Benjamin W. |last3=Commane |first3=Roisin |last4=Ernakovich |first4=Jessica |last5=Euskirchen |first5=Eugenie |last6=Hugelius |first6=Gustaf |last7=Grosse |first7=Guido |last8=Jones |first8=Miriam |last9=Koven |first9=Charlie |last10=Leshyk |first10=Victor |last11=Lawrence |first11=David |last12=Loranty |first12=Michael M. |last13=Mauritz |first13=Marguerite |last14=Olefeldt |first14=David |last15=Natali |first15=Susan |last16=Rodenhizer |first16=Heidi |last17=Salmon |first17=Verity |last18=Schädel |first18=Christina |last19=Strauss |first19=Jens |last20=Treat |first20=Claire |last21=Turetsky |first21=Merritt |year=2022 |title=Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic |journal=Annual Review of Environment and Resources |volume=47 |pages=343–371 |doi=10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847 |quote="Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement..." |doi-access=free }}{{Cite web |last=Phiddian |first=Ellen |date=5 April 2022 |title=Explainer: IPCC Scenarios |url=https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/explainer-ipcc-scenarios/ |website=Cosmos |access-date=30 September 2023 |quote="The IPCC doesn’t make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C. |archive-date=20 September 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230920224129/https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/explainer-ipcc-scenarios/ |url-status=live }}

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West Africa is expected to be affected by climate change caused by rising temperatures, decreased rainfall, increased mega-storms and rising sea levels. Average temperatures over west Africa are projected to increase by between {{cvt|1.5 and 4|°C}} by mid-century, relative to 1986–2005. Projections of rainfall indicate an overall decrease in rainfall and an increase in intense mega-storm events over the Sahel.

The sea level is expected to rise faster in West Africa then the global average.

The main water resources in Senegal are dependent on rainfall. Rainfall deficits and increased variability due to climate change will likely reduce aquifer recharge rates. Major population centers are already realizing saltwater intrusion into aquifers and arable land. Sea level rise and decreased rainfall will exacerbate salinity issues.{{Cite web|url=https://www.climatelinks.org/resources/climate-change-risk-profile-senegal|title=Climate Risk Profile: Senegal|website=Climatelinks|publisher=USAID|language=en|access-date=2020-04-22}} As more saltwater intrusion happens, this will threaten fish stock in the country.

The combination of increased temperatures and decreased rainfall will likely increase desertification in eastern Senegal, leading to expansion of the Sahara.

File:Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in Senegal from 2005, OWID.png

Like in other parts of West Africa, the expected extreme weather including more severe drought in the Sahel region is expected to greatly effect food security and agricultural yields.

Climate change is likely to result in reduced yields of key crops, including sorghum and millet, placing pressure on rural livelihoods{{Cite journal|last1=Sultan|first1=Benjamin|last2=Defrance|first2=Dimitri|last3=Iizumi|first3=Toshichika|date=2019-09-06|title=Evidence of crop production losses in West Africa due to historical global warming in two crop models|journal=Scientific Reports|language=en|volume=9|issue=1|pages=12834|doi=10.1038/s41598-019-49167-0|pmid=31492929|pmc=6731230|bibcode=2019NatSR...912834S|issn=2045-2322|doi-access=free}} since agriculture employs about 70% of the population of Senegal. For example, some projections suggest that between 2000 - 2009 there was a 10 -20% reduction in millet and a 5 - 15% reduction in sorghum yields due to climate change. Climate change adaptation for millet and sorghum include options such as increasing crop tolerances to high temperatures during the flowering period{{Cite journal|last1=Parkes|first1=B.|last2=Defrance|first2=Dimitri|last3=Sultan|first3=Benjamin|last4=Ciais|first4=P.|last5=Wang|first5=X. H.|date=2018|title=Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5K warmer than the pre-industrial era|url=http://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010072406|journal=Earth System Dynamics|volume=9|issue=1|pages=119–134|doi=10.5194/esd-9-119-2018|issn=2190-4979|doi-access=free}}{{Cite journal|last1=Guan|first1=Kaiyu|last2=Sultan|first2=Benjamin|last3=Biasutti|first3=Michela|last4=Baron|first4=Christian|last5=Lobell|first5=David B.|date=2017-01-15|title=Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa|journal=Agricultural and Forest Meteorology|language=en|volume=232|pages=291–305|doi=10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.07.021|bibcode=2017AgFM..232..291G|issn=0168-1923|doi-access=free}} and increasing cultivars’ thermal time requirement.{{Cite journal|last1=Sultan|first1=B|last2=Roudier|first2=P|last3=Quirion|first3=P|last4=Alhassane|first4=A|last5=Muller|first5=B|last6=Dingkuhn|first6=M|last7=Ciais|first7=P|last8=Guimberteau|first8=M|last9=Traore|first9=S|last10=Baron|first10=C|date=2013-03-01|title=Assessing climate change impacts on sorghum and millet yields in the Sudanian and Sahelian savannas of West Africa|journal=Environmental Research Letters|volume=8|issue=1|pages=014040|doi=10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014040|bibcode=2013ERL.....8a4040S|issn=1748-9326|doi-access=free}}

Moreover, animal herding communities, which include about 2.5 million people in the broader Sahel region, will be severally impacted, because weather variability will lead to increased overgrazing, pressure on water supplies, and subsequent effects on the economic viability of herding communities.{{Cite web|date=2018-10-10|title=How climate change is plunging Senegal's herders into poverty|url=https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/special-report/2018/10/10/Senegal-climate-change-Fulani-herders-drought-Sahel|access-date=2020-11-26|website=The New Humanitarian|language=en}} For example, in 2017, pressures on lands led to increased demand for manufactured animal feed, causing prices to skyrocket and farmers to sell large portions of their herds.

Sea level rise is expected to displace a large percentage of Senegal's population. Nearly 70% of the population lives in coastal zones. The government is already moving communities in high-risk flood areas. Additionally nearly 90% of industry in Senegal is in that same coastal region. Extreme weather events and coastal flooding could jeopardize these major economic centers.

In 2006, Senegal initiated a National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) as part of the larger trend to create National Adaptation Plans.{{Cite web|title=Senegal factsheet: Climate information and agricultural planning|url=https://2016report.futureclimateafrica.org/reader/west-africa/senegal-factsheet-climate-information-and-agricultural-planning/|access-date=2020-04-22|website=2016report.futureclimateafrica.org|language=en-GB|archive-date=2020-08-07|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200807005146/https://2016report.futureclimateafrica.org/reader/west-africa/senegal-factsheet-climate-information-and-agricultural-planning/|url-status=dead}}{{Cite web|url=https://www.adaptation-undp.org/resources/project-brief-fact-sheet/national-adaptation-plans-focus-lessons-senegal|title=National Adaptation Plans in focus: Lessons from Senegal {{!}} UNDP Climate Change Adaptation|website=www.adaptation-undp.org|language=en|access-date=2020-04-22}} A National Committee on Climate Change was appointed by presidential degree to support the program. Additionally, there is a Climate Fund that is an instrument of climate finance.

In 2015, Senegal released its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC's) that indicated climate change would be treated as a national priority.

At the same time that these policies are in place, there is evidence that they are not fully being acted on. For example, an article in The Nation focused on climate justice described how a coal fire power plan was built in Bargny, Senegal, a site that had been identified by the government as a displacement location for communities displaced by sea level rise.

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Senegal

Category:Environment of Senegal

Senegal